BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) AI Stock Analysis

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BJ's Restaurants

(NASDAQ:BJRI)

Rating:70Neutral

Price Target:

$41.00

▼( -1.20% Downside)

BJ's Restaurants demonstrates strong financial performance and positive market momentum, supported by effective marketing and operational strategies. However, the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, and challenges like tariff impacts and sales volatility need monitoring. Overall, the company is well-positioned but must manage external risks and valuation expectations.

Positive Factors

Earnings

BJ’s first-quarter adjusted EPS easily beat expectations, driven by better-than-expected restaurant-level margins.

Leadership

New leadership is bringing fresh perspectives to drive additional rigor and discipline in initiatives and capital deployment efforts.

Promotions

The $13 mid-week Pizookie Meal Deal promotion continues to build momentum for the brand, with positive traffic driving benefits.

Negative Factors

Discounting

Margin downside and EBITDA miss were driven by elevated discounting, promotional actions, and incremental labor and marketing investment.

Weather Impact

Weather-related pressure has muted February results, and management expects full 1Q SSS results to be adversely impacted.

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$930.86M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)552.95K

Price to Earnings (P/E)44.3

Beta (1Y)1.28

Revenue Growth2.91%

EPS Growth-4.86%

CountryUS

Employees21,230

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength72

IndustryRestaurants

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.59

Shares Outstanding22,115,837

10 Day Avg. Volume622,395

30 Day Avg. Volume552,948

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.03

Price to Book (P/B)2.29

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio69.36

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$38.00

Price Target Upside-8.43% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering6

BJ's Restaurants Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) is an American restaurant chain known for its diverse menu that includes deep-dish pizza, craft beers, and a variety of American-style meals. The company operates in the casual dining sector and is recognized for its unique dining experience, which combines high-quality food with a lively atmosphere. BJ's Restaurants are primarily located in the United States, serving a broad demographic of diners seeking a casual yet engaging dining experience.

How the Company Makes MoneyBJ's Restaurants, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its restaurant locations. The company's revenue streams are predominantly derived from dine-in services, takeout, and delivery options. Additionally, BJ's benefits from its in-house brewery operations, producing and selling a selection of craft beers under the BJ's Brewhouse brand. While the core of its earnings comes from direct restaurant sales, BJ's occasionally engages in strategic partnerships and promotional activities aimed at enhancing brand visibility and attracting more customers. The company also leverages its loyalty programs and marketing initiatives to drive repeat visits and increase average customer spend.

BJ's Restaurants Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BJ's Restaurants displays strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage typical of the industry, with room for strengthening the equity base. Cash flow management is positive, though historical volatility in free cash flow warrants attention.

Income Statement

Positive

BJ's Restaurants has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from 2020 to TTM 2025. Gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved, indicating better cost management and profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also on a positive trajectory, reflecting operational efficiency. However, fluctuations in net income indicate some volatility, which poses potential risks.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio suggests a moderate level of leverage, which is typical in the restaurant industry but still entails risk. Return on equity has improved, demonstrating enhanced profitability and efficiency in using shareholders' funds. The equity ratio indicates a stable capital structure, though there is room for strengthening the equity base further.

Cash Flow

Positive

BJ's Restaurants has experienced a positive trend in operating cash flow, which is favorable for ongoing operations. The free cash flow growth rate is positive, showing better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, previous periods of negative free cash flow highlight the need for continued focus on cash management.

TTM	Dec 2024	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.37B	1.36B	1.33B	1.28B	1.09B	778.51M
	Gross Profit
388.08M	1.01B	177.79M	144.76M	129.63M	56.42M
	EBIT
23.00M	14.08M	13.76M	780.00K	-10.23M	-68.02M
	EBITDA
90.37M	86.49M	86.01M	67.79M	60.19M	5.11M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
22.46M	16.69M	19.66M	4.08M	-3.61M	-57.88M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
26.10M	26.10M	29.07M	24.87M	38.53M	54.01M
	Total Assets
1.04B	1.04B	1.06B	1.05B	1.04B	1.06B
	Total Debt
500.61M	500.61M	519.50M	532.71M	525.26M	610.48M
	Net Debt
474.51M	474.51M	490.43M	507.84M	486.73M	556.47M
	Total Liabilities
671.05M	671.05M	692.69M	700.41M	701.39M	765.64M
	Stockholders Equity
370.02M	370.02M	365.76M	345.51M	333.77M	293.79M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
12.06M	24.57M	6.92M	-27.48M	22.10M	-2.78M
	Operating Cash Flow
83.76M	101.47M	105.84M	51.12M	64.28M	40.54M
	Investing Cash Flow
-71.66M	-76.89M	-98.91M	-71.91M	-42.17M	-35.72M
	Financing Cash Flow
-11.92M	-27.55M	-2.73M	7.13M	-35.25M	24.45M

BJ's Restaurants Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price41.50

Price Trends

50DMA

35.53

Positive

100DMA

35.69

Positive

200DMA

34.63

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

2.31

Negative

RSI

61.84

Neutral

STOCH

44.44

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BJRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.09, above the 50-day MA of 35.53, and above the 200-day MA of 34.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BJRI.

BJ's Restaurants Risk Analysis

BJ's Restaurants disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BJ's Restaurants reported the most risks in the “Ability to Sell” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BJ's Restaurants Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PTLO	75 Outperform	$901.52M	26.62	7.37%	―	4.57%	6.89%
CAKE	73 Outperform	$2.66B	16.84	46.60%	2.01%	4.42%	48.23%
BJRI	70 Neutral	$930.86M	44.27	6.01%	―	2.91%	-4.86%
CBRL	66 Neutral	$1.25B	34.98	7.80%	1.83%	2.26%	-56.99%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.88B	11.26	2.78%	3.93%	2.65%	-22.00%
BH	52 Neutral	$731.33M	14.87	-10.29%	―	0.85%	-571.58%
JACK	50 Neutral	$415.16M	―	4.15%	8.83%	-6.02%	-136.86%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BJRI

BJ's Restaurants

41.50

6.65

19.08%

Biglari Holdings

246.42

51.95

26.71%

CBRL

Cracker Barrel

55.93

11.23

25.12%

JACK

Jack In The Box

20.24

-30.72

-60.28%

CAKE

Cheesecake Factory

52.35

16.39

45.58%

PTLO

Portillo's

11.72

2.07

21.45%

BJ's Restaurants Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 23.92%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

BJ's Restaurants delivered a strong first quarter with notable traffic growth and improved margins, driven by successful marketing initiatives and operational efficiencies. However, the company faced challenges with February sales due to external factors and potential future impacts from tariffs. Overall, the positive achievements and raised profit guidance indicate a strong position for continued growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong First Quarter Traffic Growth

BJ's Restaurants reported a 2.7% increase in traffic growth, outperforming the black box industry average by approximately 320 basis points.

Improved Restaurant-Level Margins

Restaurant-level operating margins improved to 16%, and adjusted EBITDA margins reached 10.2%, representing year-over-year improvements of 100 basis points and 150 basis points, respectively.

Successful Pizookie Marketing Strategy

The Pizookie Platter gained traction on social media, generating over 57 million organic social impressions and selling over 24,000 units, a 17 times increase from the previous run rate.

Record First Quarter Restaurant-Level Profits

BJ's Restaurants achieved their most profitable first quarter ever, with a restaurant-level operating profit increase of 10% to $55.6 million.

Raised Profit Guidance for 2025

The company raised its profit guidance, expecting restaurant-level operating profit of $210 million to $219 million and adjusted EBITDA of $131 million to $140 million.

Negative Updates

Sales Shortfall in February

Sales were below internal expectations due to adverse weather and a delay in federal income tax refund processing, resulting in negative monthly comps for February.

Potential Impact of Tariffs

Approximately 15% of BJ's food basket is subject to potential tariffs, which could lead to modest incremental inflation in the second half of the year.

Mix Shift and Alcohol Incidents

There was a decline in alcohol incidents, and the overall mix of sales was negatively impacted by promotional activities.

Company Guidance

In the BJ's Restaurants First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a strong performance with a focus on traffic growth and operational improvements. Comparable sales increased by 1.7%, with a notable 2.7% rise in traffic that outpaced the industry average by 320 basis points. The company achieved restaurant-level operating margins of 16% and adjusted EBITDA margins of 10.2%, marking year-over-year improvements of 100 and 150 basis points, respectively. BJ's also highlighted a 13% reduction in comp food and beverage expenses and a 4% reduction in repair and maintenance costs. The brand's marketing efforts successfully leveraged emerging social media trends, such as the Pizookie Platter, which generated significant social media impressions and sales growth. Additionally, the company raised its earnings expectations and planned to increase its share buyback range due to stronger margin performance. Overall, BJ's remains optimistic about navigating potential macroeconomic headwinds, supported by robust strategic initiatives aimed at driving sales and expanding margins.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.