Bj's Restaurants (BJRI)
NASDAQ:BJRI
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BJ's Restaurants
(NASDAQ:BJRI)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
â–²(1.99% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/03/26
Overall score reflects strong fundamental improvement (profit rebound and materially better leverage) and a constructive 2026 outlook with margin initiatives and buyback flexibility. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with bearish momentum) and only mid-range valuation support, plus near-term risks from inflation and check compression.
Positive Factors
Improved leverage / stronger balance sheet
Material deleveraging in 2025 meaningfully reduces financial risk and increases strategic optionality. Lower debt supports continued share repurchases, planned capex for remodels/IT and the limited new-unit program, while providing a buffer if sales or cash flow dip, improving long-term capital flexibility.
Negative Factors
Worsening free cash flow conversion
Declining free cash flow despite higher earnings suggests working-capital or reinvestment demands that weaken cash conversion. If FCF volatility persists it constrains sustainable capital allocation, limits the pace of buybacks/new openings, and raises sensitivity to operating shocks despite improving accounting profits.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved leverage / stronger balance sheet
Material deleveraging in 2025 meaningfully reduces financial risk and increases strategic optionality. Lower debt supports continued share repurchases, planned capex for remodels/IT and the limited new-unit program, while providing a buffer if sales or cash flow dip, improving long-term capital flexibility.
Read all positive factors
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$810.58M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)419.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth3.85%
EPS Growth7.57%
CountryUS
Employees21,230
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.66
Shares Outstanding21,197,187
10 Day Avg. Volume328,090
30 Day Avg. Volume419,076
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.36
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio21.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.58
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.83Price Target Upside12.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.44B
BJ's Restaurants Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. owns and operates casual dining restaurants in the United States. The company's restaurants offer pizzas, craft and other beers, appetizers, entrées, pastas, sandwiches, specialty salads, and desserts. As of April 19, 2022, ...
How the Company Makes Money
BJ's Restaurants generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages in its restaurants. The company operates a revenue model based on both dine-in and takeout services, catering to a wide customer base. Key revenue streams include ...
BJ's Restaurants Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a healthy, improving BJ's with consistent traffic-led comp growth, margin expansion, stronger profitability (net income swing to positive), notable marketing and product momentum (Pizookie/PMD), operational investments (training, remodels, AI labor), and a conservative but constructive 2026 financial guide. Headwinds include check compression from promotional/mix shifts, continued commodity and labor inflation (notably beef +14% YoY), some one-time G&A items, and ongoing off-premise softness; management expects H1 2026 to be more measured before H2 acceleration. Overall, the positives (sustained comp/traffic gains, margin expansion, cash generation and clear strategy) outweigh the manageable challenges.Positive Updates
Consistent Sales and Traffic Growth
Q4 same-store sales +2.6% and traffic +4.5% (sixth consecutive quarter of positive sales and traffic); FY2025 comps +2.0% and traffic +2.8%.
Negative Updates
Check Compression / Lower Average Check
Q4 average check declined 1.9% (implied check compression versus traffic growth), driven by Pizookie trial checks and PMD mix; PMD checks about 5% lower on average.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Sales and Traffic Growth
Q4 same-store sales +2.6% and traffic +4.5% (sixth consecutive quarter of positive sales and traffic); FY2025 comps +2.0% and traffic +2.8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2026 to comparable restaurant sales growth of 1%–3% (expecting continued traffic gains and a marginal check lift), restaurant‑level operating profit of $221M–$233M, and adjusted EBITDA of $140M–$150M; they expect G&A to normalize near $90M (~6.2% of sales, including ≈$11M of stock‑based compensation, a ~30bp improvement vs. 2025), capital expenditures of $85M–$95M (accelerated for IT and restarting new‑unit growth), up to 2 new restaurant openings in H2 2026, and the option to repurchase up to $50M of stock (with >$90M prior board authorization remaining and year‑end net funded debt of $61.2M); the company expects ~2%–3% inflation in its commodity/labor basket (with near‑term acceleration to ~3%–4% in H1 moderating in H2), a more even quarterly G&A cadence (higher in H1), and that sales gains plus initiatives (gross‑to‑net, activity‑based labor rollout and supply‑chain actions) will drive margin expansion.BJ's Restaurants Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.40B | 1.36B | 1.33B | 1.28B | 1.09B |
| Gross Profit | 1.05B | 1.01B | 177.79M | 144.76M | 129.63M |
| EBITDA | 128.55M | 86.49M | 86.01M | 64.97M | 58.57M |
| Net Income | 48.81M | 16.69M | 19.66M | 4.08M | -3.61M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.02B | 1.04B | 1.22B | 1.21B | 1.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.78M | 26.10M | 29.07M | 24.87M | 38.53M |
| Total Debt | 490.76M | 500.61M | 519.50M | 532.71M | 525.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 649.26M | 671.05M | 856.87M | 867.84M | 701.39M |
| Stockholders Equity | 366.19M | 370.02M | 365.76M | 345.51M | 333.77M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 40.90M | 24.57M | 6.92M | -27.48M | 22.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 110.51M | 101.47M | 105.84M | 51.12M | 64.28M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -69.57M | -76.89M | -98.91M | -71.91M | -42.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -43.26M | -27.55M | -2.73M | 7.13M | -35.25M |
BJ's Restaurants Technical Analysis
Neutral
38.24
Price Trends
38.59
Negative
39.27
Negative
37.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.50
Negative
52.59
Neutral
71.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BJRI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 38.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.42, below the 50-day MA of 38.59, and above the 200-day MA of 37.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BJRI.
BJ's Restaurants Risk Analysis
BJ's Restaurants disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BJ's Restaurants reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BJ's Restaurants Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $810.58M | 17.08 | 13.19% | ― | 3.85% | 7.57% | |
63 Neutral | $2.87B | 15.71 | 37.06% | 2.11% | 4.90% | 27.14% | |
62 Neutral | $726.81M | -124.65 | -0.84% | ― | 18.88% | 79.28% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $430.40M | 16.54 | 4.32% | ― | 2.40% | -14.90% | |
47 Neutral | $504.55M | -9.96 | 2.26% | 10.60% | -13.07% | -1139.12% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
38.24
5.69
17.48%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
57.55
10.73
22.92%
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
5.92
-1.04
-14.97%
KRUS
Kura Sushi USA
60.01
5.44
9.97%
PTLO
Portillo's
5.70
-6.04
-51.45%
BJ's Restaurants Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
BJ’s Restaurants Promotes Christopher Pinsak to Chief Operating Officer
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
On January 19, 2026, BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. appointed veteran operations leader Christopher P. Pinsak as Executive Vice President Chief Operating Officer, formalizing his promotion from Executive Vice President and Chief Restaurant Operatio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.