Provident Financial Services (PFS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.75B
• Dividend Yield: 4.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 875.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: 38.34%
• EPS Growth: 89.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,753
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.64
• Shares Outstanding: 130,622,390
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 580,195
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 875,700
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.04
• 1Y Price Target: $24.67
• Price Target Upside: 17.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $930.32M

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $23.50 ▲(11.69% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (margin and ROE rebound with solid cash conversion) and supportive earnings-call guidance (continued growth, NIM expansion, and buybacks). Valuation is a notable positive due to the low P/E and high dividend yield. The main offset is weaker near-term technicals, with the stock below key short-term moving averages and subdued momentum indicators.

Positive Factors

Improving Profitability

Record revenues driven by higher net interest and fee income reflect a sustained step-up in core earnings capacity after the Lakeland transaction. Consistent PPNR growth and materially improved margins enhance cash generation and capital formation, supporting durable returns and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.

Commercial Loan Franchise

Large, consistent commercial originations and a multi-billion pipeline underpin forward interest income and diversify assets away from more volatile retail-originated payoffs. A strong middle-market/commercial lending platform supports relationship deposits, fee cross-sell, and repeatable earnings contribution across economic cycles.

Capital and Cash Return Flexibility

Rising tangible equity and explicit share-repurchase authorizations, alongside continued quarterly dividends, indicate robust cash conversion and a comfortable capital buffer. This provides long-term flexibility to balance growth investments, absorb shocks, and return capital to shareholders without compromising regulatory ratios.

Negative Factors

Higher Leverage vs. History

Leverage has meaningfully increased versus earlier years, raising sensitivity to earnings shocks and interest-rate moves. Greater reliance on debt funding narrows the margin for error on credit losses or deposit stress and can constrain strategic flexibility during prolonged downturns or regulatory pressure.

Reserve/Provision Sensitivity

Lower coverage and a recent negative provision expose the bank to reserve volatility if economic conditions or loan performance worsen. Model and macro sensitivity means provisioning could swing materially, compressing reported earnings and consuming capital when stress requires reserve build.

Competitive Deposit Environment

Persistent competition for core deposits makes low-cost funding scarcer and increases the risk of higher funding costs or reliance on pricier wholesale funding. The structural pressure on deposit share and cost can constrain NIM expansion and margin resilience across rate cycles.

Provident Financial Services Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Provident Financial Services, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, families, and businesses in the United States. The company's deposit products include savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts, as well as IRA products. Its loan portfolio comprises commercial real estate loans that are secured by properties, such as multi-family apartment buildings, office buildings, and retail and industrial properties; commercial business loans; fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans collateralized by one- to four-family residential real estate properties; commercial construction loans; and consumer loans consisting of home equity loans, home equity lines of credit, marine loans, personal loans and unsecured lines of credit, and auto and recreational vehicle loans. The company also offers cash management, remote deposit capture, payroll origination, escrow account management, and online and mobile banking services; and business credit cards. In addition, it provides wealth management services comprising investment management, trust and estate administration, financial planning, tax compliance and planning, and private banking. Further, the company sells insurance and investment products, including annuities; operates as a real estate investment trust for acquiring mortgage loans and other real estate related assets; and manages and sells real estate properties acquired through foreclosure. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 96 full-service branch offices in northern and central New Jersey, as well as in Pennsylvania and New York counties. The company was founded in 1839 and is headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

Provident Financial Services generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans, which includes residential and commercial mortgages. The company also earns money from service fees associated with deposit accounts and transaction services. Additionally, PFS benefits from investment income and gains from mortgage banking activities, including the sale of loans in the secondary market. Key revenue streams include net interest margin from lending activities, fee income from banking services, and investment returns. Strategic partnerships with real estate agents and developers further enhance their lending business, contributing to overall earnings.

Provident Financial Services Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements show a strong profitability rebound (income statement score 78) with improved margins and higher ROE, supported by solid cash conversion (cash flow score 72). Offsetting factors include year-to-year volatility in margins and free cash flow growth and a more levered profile than earlier years (balance sheet score 67), which can increase downside sensitivity.

Income Statement

Profitability strengthened meaningfully in the latest annual period, with net margin improving to ~21.1% (vs. ~10.1% in 2024) and EBIT margin rising to ~29.5%. Revenue growth also re-accelerated to ~4.3% after a slow 2024 (~0.6%). Offsetting this, margins were notably higher in 2021–2022 than in 2024–2025, highlighting some earnings volatility rather than a smooth upward trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate for a regional bank, with debt-to-equity around ~0.89 in 2025 (improving slightly from ~0.93 in 2024), and equity expanded alongside asset growth. Returns improved with return on equity up to ~10.3% in 2025 (from ~4.4% in 2024), but the balance sheet is more levered than 2021 (debt-to-equity ~0.38), indicating a higher reliance on debt funding versus earlier years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains solid, with operating cash flow of ~$442M in 2025 and free cash flow roughly matching net income (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), suggesting good cash earnings quality. However, free cash flow growth fell ~27.2% in 2025 after modest growth in 2024, pointing to year-to-year volatility in cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.38B	1.14B	695.65M	553.97M	489.15M
Gross Profit	866.82M	607.16M	451.12M	500.34M	475.66M
EBITDA	408.16M	204.20M	197.97M	263.81M	249.85M
Net Income	291.16M	115.53M	128.40M	175.65M	167.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.98B	24.05B	14.21B	13.78B	13.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.38B	2.97B	1.87B	1.99B	2.77B
Total Debt	2.52B	2.42B	1.53B	1.35B	637.06M
Total Liabilities	22.15B	21.45B	12.52B	12.19B	12.08B
Stockholders Equity	2.83B	2.60B	1.69B	1.60B	1.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	442.26M	425.07M	165.91M	190.90M	143.01M
Operating Cash Flow	442.26M	426.38M	173.40M	200.31M	156.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.05B	507.67M	-469.60M	-647.56M	-716.57M
Financing Cash Flow	615.62M	-908.37M	289.95M	-78.70M	739.86M

Provident Financial Services Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 21.04
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PFS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.66, below the 50-day MA of 21.24, and above the 200-day MA of 18.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PFS.

Provident Financial Services Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FFBC	78 Outperform	$2.94B	10.56	9.82%	3.79%	5.15%	16.42%
FRME	76 Outperform	$2.48B	10.07	9.47%	3.72%	-1.76%	32.44%
PFS	72 Outperform	$2.75B	9.43	10.72%	4.69%	38.34%	89.73%
BANR	69 Neutral	$2.01B	10.44	10.28%	2.97%	6.98%	15.08%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WAFD	64 Neutral	$2.36B	10.79	7.49%	3.27%	-1.58%	6.34%
SFNC	60 Neutral	$2.88B	-7.15	-11.44%	4.41%	-55.53%	-387.04%

Provident Financial Services Corporate Events

Provident Financial Services Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On January 28, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per common share, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 13, 2026. The dividend declaration underscores the company’s ongoing capital return to investors and signals continued confidence by the board in the financial strength and cash-generating capacity of the community banking group and its related wealth management and insurance subsidiaries.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFS) stock is a Buy with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Services stock, see the PFS Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Services posts strong Q4 and 2025 results

Provident Financial Services, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with net income rising to $83.4 million, or $0.64 per share, for the three months ended December 31, 2025, up from $48.5 million, or $0.37 per share, a year earlier, and full-year net income more than doubling to $291.2 million, or $2.23 per share, from $115.5 million, or $1.05 per share, in 2024. The improvement was driven by a full year of combined operations with Lakeland Bancorp, the absence of prior-year merger and CECL charges, record revenue of $225.7 million for a third straight quarter, modest net interest margin expansion, and growth in commercial loans and core deposits, while asset quality improved and tangible book value per share increased; the company also secured additional tax benefits through the purchase of energy production tax credits and set May 21, 2026, as the date for its virtual annual meeting of stockholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFS) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Services stock, see the PFS Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Services Reports Record Q4 2025 Results

On January 28, 2026, Provident Financial Services furnished investors with its fourth-quarter 2025 results presentation, highlighting record quarterly revenues of $226 million driven by growth in both net interest income and non-interest income. For Q4 2025, the company reported diluted EPS of $0.64, a return on average assets of 1.34%, and a return on average tangible common equity of 17.58%, underpinned by six consecutive quarters of pre-provision net revenue growth to $111 million and full-year 2025 PPNR of $414 million, or $3.18 per share. The bank continued to post strong balance sheet trends, with total assets of $25.0 billion, total loans of $19.5 billion, and total deposits of $19.3 billion, while core net interest margin expanded on the back of robust loan growth, disciplined deposit cost management, and favorable repricing of maturing loans. Commercial lending momentum remained solid, with $3.2 billion of new commercial originations in 2025 and 5.5% net commercial loan growth, alongside a $2.74 billion commercial pipeline at a weighted average rate of 6.22%, supporting earnings power going into 2026. Funding remained granular and relationship-focused, as total deposits grew $182 million in the quarter, core deposits increased $260 million, the average deposit cost fell four basis points to 2.10%, and brokered deposits represented only 4% of the deposit base, with insured and collateralized balances comprising 65.6% of total deposits. Fee-based businesses also contributed more meaningfully, with higher insurance agency income, growing SBA loan gains, and ongoing expansion at wealth manager Beacon Trust, while management emphasized continued focus on positive operating leverage despite modest increases in compensation tied to performance incentives and growth investments, reinforcing the bank’s stable capital profile and strong regulatory ratios.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFS) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Services stock, see the PFS Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Services Launches New Stock Repurchase Program

On January 26, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc. announced that its board has authorized the company’s tenth stock repurchase program, which will begin after completion of its existing program that has 814,247 shares remaining. Combined, the new and existing authorizations allow the repurchase of up to 2.15% of the company’s outstanding common stock, or about 2.81 million shares, via open market purchases, negotiated transactions, block trades or Rule 10b5‑1 trading plans, with no set expiration date or completion timeframe. Executives framed the move as a reflection of the bank’s strong balance sheet, earnings outlook and capital formation, emphasizing that the added buyback capacity enhances capital return flexibility and is intended to support shareholder value while remaining subject to market conditions, regulatory considerations and SEC safe harbor rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFS) stock is a Buy with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Services stock, see the PFS Stock Forecast page.

Provident Financial Services Announces CFO Retirement Transition Plan

On January 13, 2026, Provident Bank announced the planned retirement of Thomas M. Lyons, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Provident Financial Services and Provident Bank, expected to occur by June 30, 2026, or upon the appointment of his successor. Lyons, who became CFO in 2011 after joining through Provident’s 2004 merger with First Savings Bank, played a central role in expanding the bank’s assets from about $6 billion at the time of that merger to nearly $25 billion today and in strengthening its presence across New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania; he will remain in his role until a successor is named and then serve in an advisory capacity during the transition, as the bank undertakes a nationwide search that underscores the importance of maintaining continuity in its financial leadership and strategic growth trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFS) stock is a Buy with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Provident Financial Services stock, see the PFS Stock Forecast page.