Provident Financial Services (PFS)
NYSE:PFS
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Provident Financial Services
(NYSE:PFS)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$23.50
â–²(2.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (margin and ROE rebound with solid cash conversion) and supportive earnings-call guidance (continued growth, NIM expansion, and buybacks). Valuation is a notable positive due to the low P/E and high dividend yield. The main offset is weaker near-term technicals, with the stock below key short-term moving averages and subdued momentum indicators.
Positive Factors
Improving Profitability
Record revenues driven by higher net interest and fee income reflect a sustained step-up in core earnings capacity after the Lakeland transaction. Consistent PPNR growth and materially improved margins enhance cash generation and capital formation, supporting durable returns and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Higher Leverage vs. History
Leverage has meaningfully increased versus earlier years, raising sensitivity to earnings shocks and interest-rate moves. Greater reliance on debt funding narrows the margin for error on credit losses or deposit stress and can constrain strategic flexibility during prolonged downturns or regulatory pressure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving Profitability
Record revenues driven by higher net interest and fee income reflect a sustained step-up in core earnings capacity after the Lakeland transaction. Consistent PPNR growth and materially improved margins enhance cash generation and capital formation, supporting durable returns and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Provident Financial Services (PFS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.92B
Dividend Yield4.69%
Average Volume (3M)946.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth21.32%
EPS Growth113.57%
CountryUS
Employees1,753
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.66
Shares Outstanding130,313,690
10 Day Avg. Volume974,220
30 Day Avg. Volume946,964
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)1.87
P/FCF Ratio5.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.00Price Target Upside9.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$930.32M
Provident Financial Services Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Provident Financial Services, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, families, and businesses in the United States. The company's deposit products include sa...
How the Company Makes Money
Provident Financial Services generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans, which includes residential and commercial mortgages. The company also earns money from service fees associated with deposit accounts and transaction servi...
Provident Financial Services Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operating momentum with record revenues, expanding core profitability, robust loan production, improved asset quality and capital build (supporting buybacks). Headwinds include heightened deposit competition, reserve/model sensitivity, elevated payoffs that partially offset production, modest margin pressure from purchase accounting accretion, and planned near-term operating and conversion expenses. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (loan/deposit growth of 4–6%, continued NIM expansion and mid‑teens ROTCE target) indicating confidence in sustaining growth despite the noted challenges.Positive Updates
Record Revenues and Earnings
Total revenue reached a record $226 million (third consecutive quarter record), driven by record net interest income of $197 million and record noninterest income of $28.3 million. Net earnings for the quarter were $83 million or $0.64 per share; annualized return on average assets (ROA) was 1.34% and adjusted return on average tangible common equity was 17.6%.
Negative Updates
Elevated Loan Payoffs and Composition Shifts
Elevated loan payoffs of $1.3 billion in 2025—primarily in the CRE portfolio—partially offset production, contributing to mixed loan mix with reductions in construction and residential mortgage loans despite growth in multifamily, commercial mortgage and commercial loans.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenues and Earnings
Total revenue reached a record $226 million (third consecutive quarter record), driven by record net interest income of $197 million and record noninterest income of $28.3 million. Net earnings for the quarter were $83 million or $0.64 per share; annualized return on average assets (ROA) was 1.34% and adjusted return on average tangible common equity was 17.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance calls for loan and deposit growth of 4–6%, noninterest income averaging $28.5 million per quarter, a targeted core ROAA of roughly 1.20%–1.30% (120–130 bps) and a mid‑teens return on average tangible common equity; they expect core NIM to expand 3–5 bps over the next two quarters with reported NIM in the 3.4%–3.5% range for 2026 (December core NIM was ~3.05%), quarterly core operating expenses of about $118–120 million (with a slightly higher second‑half run rate), approximately $5 million of one‑time core system conversion charges in Q3–Q4, an effective tax rate around 29% (ex‑discrete tax credits), back‑book repricing and pipeline yields that should add roughly 3–4 bps to margin, and continued capital flexibility including a new authorization to repurchase 2 million shares.Provident Financial Services Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.38B | 1.14B | 695.65M | 553.97M | 489.15M |
| Gross Profit | 866.82M | 607.16M | 451.12M | 500.34M | 475.66M |
| EBITDA | 408.16M | 204.20M | 197.97M | 263.81M | 249.85M |
| Net Income | 291.16M | 115.53M | 128.40M | 175.65M | 167.92M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 24.98B | 24.05B | 14.21B | 13.78B | 13.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.38B | 2.97B | 1.87B | 1.99B | 2.77B |
| Total Debt | 2.52B | 2.42B | 1.53B | 1.35B | 637.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 22.15B | 21.45B | 12.52B | 12.19B | 12.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.83B | 2.60B | 1.69B | 1.60B | 1.70B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 430.73M | 425.07M | 165.91M | 190.90M | 143.01M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 442.26M | 426.38M | 173.40M | 200.31M | 156.81M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.05B | 507.67M | -469.60M | -647.56M | -716.57M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 615.62M | -908.37M | 289.95M | -78.70M | 739.86M |
Provident Financial Services Technical Analysis
Positive
22.84
Price Trends
21.69
Positive
20.98
Positive
19.72
Positive
Market Momentum
0.38
Negative
70.35
Negative
80.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PFS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.52, above the 50-day MA of 21.69, and above the 200-day MA of 19.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.35 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PFS.
Provident Financial Services Risk Analysis
Provident Financial Services disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Provident Financial Services reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Provident Financial Services Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $2.52B | 20.98 | 8.03% | 3.72% | 0.97% | -4.21% | |
75 Outperform | $3.14B | 9.71 | 10.23% | 3.79% | 8.30% | 17.76% | |
74 Outperform | $2.24B | 9.44 | 10.66% | 2.97% | 3.90% | 16.71% | |
72 Outperform | $2.92B | 8.86 | 10.62% | 4.69% | 21.32% | 113.57% | |
69 Neutral | $2.66B | 9.04 | 8.36% | 3.27% | -8.79% | 15.89% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $3.08B | 10.35 | -10.51% | 4.41% | -57.23% | -320.70% |
* Financial Sector Average
PFS
Provident Financial Services
22.42
6.84
43.90%
BANR
Banner
66.25
6.56
10.98%
FFBC
First Financial Bancorp
29.91
7.64
34.28%
FRME
First Merchants
39.82
5.49
16.00%
SFNC
Simmons 1st Nat'l
21.25
3.39
19.01%
WAFD
Washington Federal
35.06
7.52
27.29%
Provident Financial Services Corporate Events
Dividends
Provident Financial Services Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per common share, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on Feb...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Provident Financial Services posts strong Q4 and 2025 results
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
Provident Financial Services, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with net income rising to $83.4 million, or $0.64 per share, for the three months ended December 31, 2025, up from $48.5 million, or $0.37 per share, a y...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Provident Financial Services Reports Record Q4 2025 Results
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Provident Financial Services furnished investors with its fourth-quarter 2025 results presentation, highlighting record quarterly revenues of $226 million driven by growth in both net interest income and non-interest income. F...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Provident Financial Services Launches New Stock Repurchase Program
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc. announced that its board has authorized the company’s tenth stock repurchase program, which will begin after completion of its existing program that has 814,247 shares remaining. Combin...
Executive/Board Changes
Provident Financial Services Announces CFO Retirement Transition Plan
Neutral
Jan 14, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Provident Bank announced the planned retirement of Thomas M. Lyons, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Provident Financial Services and Provident Bank, expected to occur by June 30, 2026, or upon th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.