Simmons 1st Nat'l (SFNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.98B
• Dividend Yield: 4.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: -55.53%
• EPS Growth: -387.04%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,949
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 144,717,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,288,972
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,049,687
• PEG Ratio: -1.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.92
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -237.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.27
• 1Y Price Target: $22.67
• Price Target Upside: 8.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.50 ▲(2.53% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak TTM earnings performance (sharp revenue decline and a large loss) despite healthier cash flow and moderate leverage. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call guidance and commentary point to improving operating momentum (NIM expansion and expected net interest income growth), and technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages. Valuation remains mixed because the negative P/E signals earnings risk, though the ~4.23% dividend yield helps.

Positive Factors

Net Interest Margin Expansion

Sustained NIM expansion materially boosts core banking profitability independent of fee volatility. Management targets mid-3.8% NIM and recent quarter showed tangible improvement, indicating executing balance-sheet actions and mix shifts that support enduring net interest income generation.

Back-Book Repricing Tailwind

A large stock of below-market loans repricing higher provides a multi-year structural lift to loan yields and NII. This scheduled repricing smooths margin recovery through rate cycles, supporting sustainable earnings improvement even if new loan origination is moderate.

Positive Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow underpins financial flexibility: funds dividends, investments, and reserve building without immediate reliance on capital markets. That stability helps absorb earnings volatility and supports execution of strategic initiatives.

Negative Factors

TTM Revenue Decline and Net Loss

A recent multi-quarter swing to a TTM net loss meaningfully weakens internal capital generation and ROE. Persistent revenue and profit erosion constrain reinvestment, limit dividend/buyback optionality, and raise reliance on cost cuts or external capital to restore sustainable earnings.

Deposit Competition and Funding Constraints

Weaker core deposit franchise and elevated deposit beta increase funding cost sensitivity and reduce low-cost liquidity. Over time this pressures net interest margins, limits sustainable loan growth unless compensated by higher yields or alternative funding, and raises funding volatility risk.

Competitive CRE Loan Pricing

Structural pricing pressure in commercial real estate compresses yields and risk-adjusted returns, forcing either tighter underwriting or retreat from attractive origination volumes. That dynamic can cap profitable growth and prolong margin recovery even amid broader NIM tailwinds.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Simmons First National Corporation operates as the holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses. It offers checking, savings, and time deposits; consumer, real estate, and commercial loans; agricultural finance, equipment, and small business administration lending; trust and fiduciary services; credit cards; investment management products; insurance products; and securities and investment services. The company also provides ATM services; Internet and mobile banking platforms; overdraft facilities; and safe deposit boxes. As of January 27, 2022, the company operated through 199 financial centers in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Simmons First National Corporation was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes Money

Simmons 1st National Corporation generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from net interest income, which is derived from the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. The bank lends money to consumers and businesses at higher rates than what it pays to depositors, creating a profit margin. Additionally, SFNC earns non-interest income from various fees associated with its banking services, including account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and service charges. The bank also generates revenue from its mortgage lending operations, investment management services, and wealth management solutions. Significant partnerships with local businesses and community organizations further enhance its service offerings and customer base, contributing to its overall financial performance.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. The income statement is the main weakness (TTM revenue decline and a swing to a large net loss), while the balance sheet shows moderate leverage and the cash-flow profile is comparatively resilient with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a sharp deterioration: revenue fell materially and profitability swung to a large net loss with deeply negative operating performance. This is a major break from 2020–2024, when the company generated consistent profits and generally healthy margins, including solid revenue growth in 2022–2024. The key weakness is the magnitude of the TTM loss and margin compression, which overwhelms the prior multi-year stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate based on the latest debt-to-equity level (improved versus earlier years), which is a balance-sheet positive. However, the TTM loss drives negative return on equity, signaling weakened earnings power and reduced internal capital generation. Assets and equity remain sizable, but the near-term concern is profitability pressure rather than headline leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive, with free cash flow also up versus the prior period. Free cash flow has historically tracked net income reasonably well in profitable years, supporting earnings quality. The main caution is that strong cash flow alongside a large TTM net loss can reflect timing or non-cash items, so sustainability should be monitored.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	625.57M	1.45B	1.34B	1.02B	847.94M	980.92M
Gross Profit	-13.89M	715.97M	750.42M	861.07M	799.62M	785.96M
EBITDA	-525.42M	217.42M	248.48M	355.52M	379.68M	368.83M
Net Income	-427.31M	152.69M	175.06M	256.41M	271.16M	254.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.21B	26.88B	27.35B	27.46B	24.72B	22.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.90B	2.08B	3.77B	4.54B	8.77B	6.95B
Total Debt	690.16M	1.15B	1.41B	1.39B	1.91B	2.02B
Total Liabilities	20.85B	23.35B	23.92B	24.19B	21.48B	19.38B
Stockholders Equity	3.35B	3.53B	3.43B	3.27B	3.25B	2.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	377.98M	380.42M	507.89M	286.93M	229.92M	189.27M
Operating Cash Flow	416.70M	425.92M	540.98M	322.20M	277.78M	202.54M
Investing Cash Flow	2.28B	369.51M	-183.59M	-946.23M	-2.54B	1.19B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.65B	-722.15M	-425.42M	-344.50M	438.46M	1.08B

Simmons 1st Nat'l Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.80, above the 50-day MA of 19.23, and above the 200-day MA of 18.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SFNC.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSBC	75 Outperform	$3.46B	16.18	6.54%	4.35%	41.49%	-5.53%
CBU	73 Outperform	$3.36B	16.06	11.01%	3.14%	9.41%	20.64%
FBK	72 Outperform	$3.14B	23.98	6.98%	1.34%	10.50%	-6.22%
BKU	70 Outperform	$3.60B	13.60	8.97%	2.71%	-5.44%	45.47%
TOWN	70 Outperform	$3.29B	16.14	7.37%	3.04%	9.48%	12.83%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SFNC	62 Neutral	$2.98B	-7.53	-12.42%	4.41%	-55.53%	-387.04%

Simmons 1st Nat'l Corporate Events

Simmons First National Posts Strong Q4 2025 Earnings

On January 20, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 diluted earnings per share of $0.54 on net income of $78.1 million, driven by total revenue of $249.0 million and a 31-basis-point sequential expansion in net interest margin to 3.81%. Adjusted pre-provision net revenue rose 19% from the prior quarter to $110.4 million, supported by lower deposit costs, improved efficiency ratios, and modest annualized growth of 7% in total loans and 7–8% in total deposits, while key capital ratios such as tangible common equity and CET1 remained solid. Asset quality metrics showed mixed signals: the net charge-off ratio increased to 1.12% due to previously disclosed credit issues and a run-off portfolio, but the nonperforming loan ratio improved by 26 basis points to 0.64%, with management highlighting proactive credit cleanup and appropriate reserve levels as part of an ongoing effort to strengthen the loan portfolio and overall balance sheet positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFNC) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simmons 1st Nat’l stock, see the SFNC Stock Forecast page.

Simmons First CEO Enters Personal Aircraft Time-Sharing Agreement

On December 23, 2025, Simmons First National Corporation entered into an aircraft time sharing agreement with its chairman and chief executive officer, George Makris, Jr., allowing him to lease the company’s aircraft with crew on a non-exclusive basis for personal travel for himself and his guests. Under the arrangement, Makris must reimburse Simmons for the actual costs of each flight, including any related deadhead legs, and either party can terminate the agreement with 10 business days’ written notice, while the company will not provide any tax reimbursements related to his personal use of the aircraft, shifting all associated tax obligations to the executive.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFNC) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simmons 1st Nat’l stock, see the SFNC Stock Forecast page.

Simmons 1st Nat’l Approves Vesting for Retiring Executive

On December 4, 2025, Simmons First National Corporation’s board of directors decided to allow the unvested performance share units granted to George Makris, Jr. in 2024 to vest post-retirement. This decision ensures that the units will vest as if he had remained employed for the entire performance period, without any proration or acceleration of payment.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFNC) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simmons 1st Nat’l stock, see the SFNC Stock Forecast page.