Simmons 1st Nat'l (SFNC) AI Stock Analysis

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Simmons 1st Nat'l

(NASDAQ:SFNC)

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:

$20.00

▲(9.05%Upside)

SFNC's score is driven by solid financial stability and a positive earnings call outlook, which are offset by weak technical indicators and challenges in credit performance. The company's proactive management and reasonable valuation further support the stock's attractiveness, though short-term technical trends suggest caution.

Simmons 1st Nat'l (SFNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.31B

Dividend Yield4.63%

Average Volume (3M)451.68K

Price to Earnings (P/E)15.8

Beta (1Y)1.05

Revenue Growth2.91%

EPS Growth-12.82%

CountryUS

Employees2,949

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength73

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.26

Shares Outstanding125,952,420

10 Day Avg. Volume513,340

30 Day Avg. Volume451,683

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio3.74

Price to Book (P/B)1.02

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio15.33

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.61

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.25

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.48

Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.52

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$21.60

Price Target Upside17.78% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering6

Simmons 1st Nat'l Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSimmons First National Corporation operates as the holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses. It offers checking, savings, and time deposits; consumer, real estate, and commercial loans; agricultural finance, equipment, and small business administration lending; trust and fiduciary services; credit cards; investment management products; insurance products; and securities and investment services. The company also provides ATM services; Internet and mobile banking platforms; overdraft facilities; and safe deposit boxes. As of January 27, 2022, the company operated through 199 financial centers in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Simmons First National Corporation was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes MoneySimmons First National Corporation generates revenue primarily through interest income from its lending activities, which include personal loans, commercial loans, and mortgages. Additionally, the company earns money from non-interest income sources such as service charges on deposit accounts, mortgage banking income, trust and investment management fees, and credit card fees. The company also benefits from its wealth management and investment services, which provide advisory and asset management services to individual and institutional clients. Partnerships with other financial service providers and its strategic acquisitions further contribute to the company's revenue growth.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 2.40%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative aspects. While there were significant achievements in loan pipeline growth, customer deposits, revenue, and net interest margin expansion, these were offset by challenges related to credit deterioration in specific loans and a significant fraud expense. The bank demonstrated a proactive approach in addressing credit issues and expressed confidence in navigating uncertainties.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Commercial Loan Pipeline Growth

The commercial loan pipeline increased by 43% from the previous quarter and reached its highest level since the second quarter of 2022.

Customer Deposits Growth

Customer deposits grew by $183 million, approximately 4% on a linked quarter annualized basis, showcasing positive remixing into lower-cost transaction accounts.

Revenue and Net Interest Margin Expansion

Total revenue increased by $1.1 million from the previous quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of top-line adjusted revenue growth. The net interest margin expanded to 2.95%, up 8 basis points from the previous quarter and 29 basis points year-over-year.

Non-Interest Income Growth

Non-interest income grew by 6% from the previous quarter, driven by strong swap fee income and diversified growth from other fee-based businesses.

Negative Updates

Credit Deterioration in Specific Loans

Two specific credit relationships were moved to nonperforming status, leading to an increased provision expense of $15.6 million in the quarter. These include a $27 million loan related to a hotel property in Downtown St. Louis and a $23 million loan to a fast-food franchise operator.

Fraudulent Activity Impact

A customer deposit fraud event resulted in a $4.3 million charge in non-interest expense for the quarter.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter 2025 earnings call, Simmons First National Corporation provided detailed guidance on several key financial metrics. The company reported a 2% increase in total period-end loans on a linked quarter annualized basis, though average loans were down due to back-end loaded funded growth. The commercial loan pipeline increased by 43% linked quarter. Total deposits slightly decreased due to reduced brokered funding, but customer deposits grew by $183 million, reflecting a 4% linked quarter annualized increase, with consumer checking accounts up 1.5% year-over-year. Revenue rose by $1.1 million linked quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of adjusted revenue growth. The net interest margin expanded to 2.95%, up 8 basis points linked quarter and 29 basis points year-over-year. Non-interest income grew by 6% linked quarter, while adjusted non-interest expenses increased by $4.3 million, including a $4.3 million fraud charge. The company proactively addressed two non-performing credit relationships, resulting in a total provision expense of $26.8 million and an increase in the ACL ratio to 1.48%. Despite credit challenges, Simmons reaffirmed its 2025 outlook for 3%+ positive operating leverage and mid-teens growth in PPNR, with expectations of the net interest margin crossing 3% sooner than anticipated.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simmons 1st Nat'l demonstrates financial stability with strong margins and solid cash flow metrics. However, the decline in revenue growth and profitability margins, along with a slight reduction in ROE, highlight areas of concern. The balance sheet remains stable with modest leverage, but the company should focus on improving revenue growth and profitability to enhance overall financial performance.

Income Statement

Positive

Simmons 1st Nat'l has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 91.26%. However, the net profit margin has declined to 19.63% in TTM, down from 20.02% in the previous year, indicating a slight reduction in profitability. Revenue has shown a negative growth rate of -2.35% in TTM, suggesting challenges in maintaining revenue levels. The EBIT margin has also decreased to 39.92% from 45.57% in 2024. Overall, while margins are strong, the declining revenue and profitability trends present concerns.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Simmons 1st Nat'l indicates solid stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37 in TTM, reflecting conservative leverage. The return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 4.14% in TTM from 4.33% in 2024, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating returns. The equity ratio is stable at 13.18%, indicating a healthy proportion of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability, but the decline in ROE suggests potential areas for improvement in profitability.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement portrays a strong position with a free cash flow of $355.31 million in TTM and a free cash flow growth rate of -6.60%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.74 in TTM, indicating strong cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.43, highlighting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. Despite a decline in free cash flow growth, the company maintains solid cash flow metrics overall.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
744.82M	762.75M	759.66M	1.02B	847.94M	999.88M
	Gross Profit
679.91M	715.97M	750.42M	861.07M	768.41M	860.94M
	EBIT
297.37M	347.63M	388.25M	488.55M	488.43M	315.96M
	EBITDA
209.85M	217.42M	248.48M	355.52M	379.68M	368.83M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
146.21M	152.69M	175.06M	256.41M	271.16M	254.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.04B	2.08B	3.77B	4.54B	8.77B	6.95B
	Total Assets
26.79B	26.88B	27.35B	27.46B	24.72B	22.36B
	Total Debt
1.30B	1.11B	1.34B	1.23B	1.72B	1.72B
	Net Debt
666.94M	424.19M	724.32M	542.37M	69.57M	-1.75B
	Total Liabilities
23.26B	23.35B	23.92B	24.19B	21.48B	19.38B
	Stockholders Equity
3.53B	3.53B	3.43B	3.27B	3.25B	2.98B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
355.31M	380.42M	507.89M	286.93M	229.92M	189.27M
	Operating Cash Flow
401.13M	425.92M	540.98M	322.20M	277.78M	202.54M
	Investing Cash Flow
400.20M	369.51M	-183.59M	-946.23M	-2.54B	1.19B
	Financing Cash Flow
-770.35M	-722.15M	-425.42M	-344.50M	438.46M	1.08B

Simmons 1st Nat'l Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price18.34

Price Trends

50DMA

18.61

Negative

100DMA

19.89

Negative

200DMA

20.95

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.10

Positive

RSI

42.49

Neutral

STOCH

31.78

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.79, below the 50-day MA of 18.61, and below the 200-day MA of 20.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SFNC.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Risk Analysis

Simmons 1st Nat'l disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simmons 1st Nat'l reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Simmons 1st Nat'l Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PRK	77 Outperform	$2.55B	16.16	12.98%	2.72%	11.80%	23.34%
CVBF	76 Outperform	$2.55B	12.76	9.35%	4.31%	-1.39%	-4.00%
BKU	74 Outperform	$2.54B	10.50	8.63%	3.67%	-0.61%	39.49%
FFBC	73 Outperform	$2.24B	9.72	9.58%	4.11%	8.05%	-3.31%
SFNC	69 Neutral	$2.31B	15.82	4.20%	4.63%	2.91%	-12.82%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.77B	9.71	7.85%	78.05%	12.07%	-7.97%
TOWN	64 Neutral	$2.50B	14.09	8.36%	3.01%	8.59%	17.97%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SFNC

Simmons 1st Nat'l

18.34

2.59

16.44%

BKU

BankUnited

33.75

6.82

25.32%

CVBF

Cvb Financial

18.54

2.87

18.32%

FFBC

First Financial Bancorp

23.35

2.94

14.40%

PRK

Park National

157.43

25.22

19.08%

TOWN

TowneBank

33.25

7.66

29.93%

Simmons 1st Nat'l Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Simmons 1st Nat’l Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

Neutral

May 8, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Simmons First National Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders in Little Rock, Arkansas, where key corporate governance matters were addressed. The meeting resulted in the election of fourteen directors, approval of executive compensation, and ratification of Forvis Mazars, LLP as the independent auditors for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting shareholder support for the board’s decisions.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Simmons 1st Nat’l Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

Positive

Apr 16, 2025

On April 16, 2025, Simmons First National Corporation reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a continued improvement in profitability fundamentals. The company experienced increases in loans and customer deposits, contributing to a healthy rise in net interest margin and positive revenue trends. Despite increasing the loss provision on two specific credit relationships due to unfavorable events, Simmons maintains that its asset quality remains sound. The company is cautiously monitoring economic volatility, which could impact business investment, but remains committed to investing in its business and the communities it serves.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.