Simmons First National (SFNC)
NASDAQ:SFNC
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Simmons 1st Nat'l
(NASDAQ:SFNC)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$21.50
â–²(4.22% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is anchored by weaker financial performance driven by the 2025 loss, partially offset by a supportive earnings-call outlook (NIM/NII guidance and repricing tailwinds). Technical indicators are largely neutral and valuation is helped by the ~4.17% dividend yield, though the negative P/E limits earnings-based valuation support.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet resilience
Leverage has improved and equity is sizable versus assets, providing a durable capital buffer. That resilience reduces solvency risk, supports loss absorption, and preserves capacity to fund lending or dividends through economic cycles, enhancing multi-quarter financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
2025 profitability shock
A large net loss and materially negative margins in 2025 represent a meaningful reversal of prior profitability. Restoring stable earnings will require sustained NIM and fee improvement plus expense control; until then, ROE and capital deployment plans remain constrained and risk investor confidence.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet resilience
Leverage has improved and equity is sizable versus assets, providing a durable capital buffer. That resilience reduces solvency risk, supports loss absorption, and preserves capacity to fund lending or dividends through economic cycles, enhancing multi-quarter financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Simmons 1st Nat'l (SFNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.97B
Dividend Yield4.41%
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth-55.53%
EPS Growth-387.04%
CountryUS
Employees2,949
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.54
Shares Outstanding144,867,840
10 Day Avg. Volume1,242,064
30 Day Avg. Volume1,155,159
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.79
Price to Sales (P/S)4.30
P/FCF Ratio6.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit117.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.33Price Target Upside8.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$994.92M
Simmons 1st Nat'l Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Simmons First National Corporation operates as the holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses. It offers checking, savings, and time deposits; consumer, real estat...
How the Company Makes Money
Simmons 1st National Corporation generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from net interest income, which is derived from the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. The bank lends money t...
Simmons 1st Nat'l Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed strong operational and financial momentum: meaningful NIM expansion, elevated loan production, robust revenue and pre-provision income growth, improved funding mix and notable profitability (ROA ~1.29%, ROTCE ~mid-teens). Management also resolved legacy asset-quality issues, reduced expenses versus multi-year run rates, and signaled investments in talent and deposit-growth initiatives. Offsetting items include competitive pressure on loan pricing (especially CRE), deposit competition in select markets, some nonrecurring Q4 items (BOLI gains and favorable tax rate), planned modest expense growth to fund investments, and management’s cautious guidance for 2026 loan growth and the potential sensitivity to future rate cuts. On balance, the positive operational and financial developments materially outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Loan Production and Growth
Highest quarterly loan production in a couple of years; underlying fourth-quarter loan growth was stated to be well in excess of a 7% annualized rate despite elevated paydowns and some seasonality (agri and mortgage warehouse declines). Pipeline size remains healthy at roughly $1.5–$2.0 billion with rate-ready-to-close at a multi-quarter high; guidance for 2026 is low- to mid-single-digit loan growth.
Negative Updates
Competitive Pressure on Loan Pricing (CRE)
Management highlighted 'irrational' loan pricing in CRE markets, compressing risk-adjusted returns and making some growth opportunities less attractive despite strong pipelines.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Loan Production and Growth
Highest quarterly loan production in a couple of years; underlying fourth-quarter loan growth was stated to be well in excess of a 7% annualized rate despite elevated paydowns and some seasonality (agri and mortgage warehouse declines). Pipeline size remains healthy at roughly $1.5–$2.0 billion with rate-ready-to-close at a multi-quarter high; guidance for 2026 is low- to mid-single-digit loan growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 to low- to mid‑single‑digit loan growth (pipeline ~$1.5–$2.0B with approved/ready‑to‑close at a multi‑quarter high), stable net interest margin roughly in the mid‑3.80% area (Q4 NIM 3.81%; linked‑quarter +31 bps — ~19–20 bps from the partial quarter impact of the balance‑sheet restructure and ~11 bps of core NIM expansion: ~3 bps loan growth, ~8 bps rate/mix), and net interest income growth of 9%–11%; the guide embeds two Fed cuts (May and August) and assumes cumulative deposit beta currently ~64% with incremental beta for future cuts ~50% (cumulative beta settling in the high‑50s by year‑end), over $2.5B of loans repricing under 4% over the next two years, an expense outlook up about 2%–3% y/y, an effective tax rate nearer to ~20% in 2026, and longer‑term targets of ROA ~1.25%+ and ROTCE in the mid‑teens, with excess funding coming from securities runoff, targeted promotional CDs or wholesale only if needed.Simmons 1st Nat'l Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 626.80M | 1.45B | 1.34B | 1.02B | 847.94M |
| Gross Profit | 36.36M | 715.97M | 750.42M | 861.07M | 799.62M |
| EBITDA | -474.97M | 217.42M | 248.48M | 355.52M | 379.68M |
| Net Income | -397.55M | 152.69M | 175.06M | 256.41M | 271.16M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 24.54B | 26.88B | 27.35B | 27.46B | 24.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.65B | 2.08B | 3.77B | 4.54B | 8.77B |
| Total Debt | 641.35M | 1.15B | 1.41B | 1.39B | 1.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 21.12B | 23.35B | 23.92B | 24.19B | 21.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.42B | 3.53B | 3.43B | 3.27B | 3.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 423.05M | 380.42M | 507.89M | 286.93M | 229.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 461.19M | 425.92M | 540.98M | 322.20M | 277.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.56B | 369.51M | -183.59M | -946.23M | -2.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.00B | -722.15M | -425.42M | -344.50M | 438.46M |
Simmons 1st Nat'l Technical Analysis
Positive
20.63
Price Trends
20.00
Positive
19.41
Positive
19.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.25
Negative
63.22
Neutral
81.05
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.47, above the 50-day MA of 20.00, and above the 200-day MA of 19.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SFNC.
Simmons 1st Nat'l Risk Analysis
Simmons 1st Nat'l disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simmons 1st Nat'l reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Simmons 1st Nat'l Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $3.28B | 15.30 | 10.99% | 3.14% | 9.41% | 20.64% | |
70 Outperform | $3.47B | 8.17 | 5.67% | 4.35% | 41.49% | -5.53% | |
69 Neutral | $3.44B | 12.64 | 8.99% | 2.71% | -5.44% | 45.47% | |
69 Neutral | $2.84B | 12.44 | 7.50% | 1.34% | 10.50% | -6.22% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $3.30B | 15.10 | 7.31% | 3.04% | 9.48% | 12.83% | |
61 Neutral | $2.97B | -6.78 | -11.48% | 4.41% | -55.53% | -387.04% |
* Financial Sector Average
SFNC
Simmons 1st Nat'l
20.63
3.14
17.94%
BKU
BankUnited
46.99
17.40
58.78%
CBU
Community Bank System
62.98
11.57
22.51%
TOWN
TowneBank
35.72
5.29
17.37%
WSBC
WesBanco
36.20
9.70
36.59%
FBK
FB Financial
55.99
16.25
40.90%
Simmons 1st Nat'l Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Simmons First Enhances Executive Change-in-Control Severance Terms
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation and Simmons Bank amended an existing Executive Change in Control Severance Agreement with executive James M. Brogdon, originally dated July 30, 2021. The amendment increases the formula for ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Simmons First National Launches New $175 Million Buyback
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation announced that its board of directors had authorized a new stock repurchase program allowing the company to buy back up to $175 million of its Class A common stock. The initiative, which rep...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Simmons First National Posts Strong Q4 2025 Earnings
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
On January 20, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 diluted earnings per share of $0.54 on net income of $78.1 million, driven by total revenue of $249.0 million and a 31-basis-point sequential expansion in net int...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Simmons First CEO Enters Personal Aircraft Time-Sharing Agreement
Neutral
Dec 23, 2025
On December 23, 2025, Simmons First National Corporation entered into an aircraft time sharing agreement with its chairman and chief executive officer, George Makris, Jr., allowing him to lease the company’s aircraft with crew on a non-exclu...
Executive/Board Changes
Simmons 1st Nat’l Approves Vesting for Retiring Executive
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025
On December 4, 2025, Simmons First National Corporation’s board of directors decided to allow the unvested performance share units granted to George Makris, Jr. in 2024 to vest post-retirement. This decision ensures that the units will vest ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.