Simmons First National (SFNC)
NASDAQ:SFNC
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Simmons 1st Nat'l
(NASDAQ:SFNC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$22.00
â–²(2.23% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is mainly held back by the sharp TTM profitability deterioration and revenue decline in the income statement, despite strong cash flow and manageable leverage. Offsetting that, the latest earnings call points to improving margin dynamics and reiterated 2026 growth targets, valuation is supportive (low P/E and solid yield), and technicals are neutral-to-slightly constructive with price above key longer-term averages.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow (TTM $459M operating, $425M free) provides durable internal funding for loan growth, dividend continuity and strategic investments. Strong cash conversion cushions earnings volatility and reduces near-term reliance on external funding.
Negative Factors
Sharp income deterioration and negative profitability
The TTM income-statement decline and deeply negative net margin (-63.5%) represent a meaningful earnings reset. Negative returns erode capital-generation ability, make dividend and buyback sustainability more sensitive to shocks, and lengthen the recovery timeline for ROE normalization.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow (TTM $459M operating, $425M free) provides durable internal funding for loan growth, dividend continuity and strategic investments. Strong cash conversion cushions earnings volatility and reduces near-term reliance on external funding.
Read all positive factors
Simmons 1st Nat'l (SFNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.10B
Dividend Yield4.41%
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth-57.23%
EPS Growth-320.45%
CountryUS
Employees2,949
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.03
Shares Outstanding145,064,210
10 Day Avg. Volume1,242,064
30 Day Avg. Volume1,155,159
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.79
Price to Sales (P/S)4.30
P/FCF Ratio6.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit78.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.25Price Target Upside8.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$994.92M
Simmons 1st Nat'l Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Simmons First National Corporation operates as the holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses. It offers checking, savings, and time deposits; consumer, real estat...
How the Company Makes Money
SFNC primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated from the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets (such as commercial loans,...
Simmons 1st Nat'l Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong organic loan growth (10% annualized this quarter), improving margin dynamics (linked-quarter NIM +3 bps and deposit-cost improvement of ~48 bps YoY), successful talent hires (wealth team bringing ~$350M AUM) and continued expense discipline driving positive operating leverage. Offsetting items were isolated credit migrations (≈$30M nonaccruals, ~$18M from one relationship), continued elevated paydowns, and heightened deposit competition in certain markets. Management reiterated constructive 2026 guidance for NII (9%–11%) and operating leverage (5%+), expressed confidence in credit and capital positions, and signaled measured capital deployment. Overall, positive operational momentum and margin tailwinds materially outweigh the isolated credit and competitive headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Loan Growth
10% annualized loan growth in the quarter (management cited prior quarters of ~7%–10% annualized), driven by diversified pipelines and successful execution of an organic growth strategy focused on quality relationships.
Negative Updates
Credit Migration and Nonperforming Loans
A roughly $30 million increase in nonaccruals was recognized in the quarter (management clarified this represents multiple loans within a single relationship). One relationship contributed just over $18 million to the NPL bucket; migration was tied to known situations and legal timing rather than broad portfolio deterioration.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Loan Growth
10% annualized loan growth in the quarter (management cited prior quarters of ~7%–10% annualized), driven by diversified pipelines and successful execution of an organic growth strategy focused on quality relationships.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 financial targets, guiding NII growth of 9–11% (now leaning to the high end) and a year‑end NIM around the mid‑3.80%s; Q1 showed 10% annualized loan growth (consistent with recent 7–10% run‑rates), linked‑quarter NIM +~3 bps, loan yields down ~7 bps Q‑on‑Q (~4 bps YoY), deposit costs down ~48 bps YoY, cumulative loan beta <15% and cumulative interest‑bearing deposit beta down ~63 bps. They reaffirmed full‑year net charge‑off expectations near ~25 bps, disclosed roughly $30M of nonaccrual additions (about $18M added to NPLs tied to one relationship), noted ~$350M of AUM commitments from a new wealth team, maintained an operating‑leverage aspiration shown in January of 5%+, and said optimal CET1 capital is about 10.5% while remaining patient on buybacks and preserving the dividend.Simmons 1st Nat'l Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 568.83M | 626.80M | 1.45B | 1.34B | 1.02B | 847.94M |
| Gross Profit | 44.96M | 36.36M | 715.97M | 750.42M | 861.07M | 799.62M |
| EBITDA | -436.48M | -474.97M | 217.42M | 248.48M | 355.52M | 379.68M |
| Net Income | -361.40M | -397.55M | 152.69M | 175.06M | 256.41M | 271.16M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.69B | 24.54B | 26.88B | 27.35B | 27.46B | 24.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.49B | 3.65B | 2.08B | 3.77B | 4.54B | 8.77B |
| Total Debt | 771.16M | 641.35M | 1.15B | 1.41B | 1.39B | 1.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 21.26B | 21.12B | 23.35B | 23.92B | 24.19B | 21.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.44B | 3.42B | 3.53B | 3.43B | 3.27B | 3.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 421.75M | 423.05M | 380.42M | 507.89M | 286.93M | 229.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 456.00M | 461.19M | 425.92M | 540.98M | 322.20M | 277.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.26B | 1.56B | 369.51M | -183.59M | -946.23M | -2.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.80B | -2.00B | -722.15M | -425.42M | -344.50M | 438.46M |
Simmons 1st Nat'l Technical Analysis
Positive
21.52
Price Trends
20.58
Positive
20.26
Positive
19.47
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
57.52
Neutral
82.85
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.16, above the 50-day MA of 20.58, and above the 200-day MA of 19.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SFNC.
Simmons 1st Nat'l Risk Analysis
Simmons 1st Nat'l disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simmons 1st Nat'l reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Simmons 1st Nat'l Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.37B | 15.62 | 11.11% | 3.14% | 6.86% | 13.91% | |
74 Outperform | $3.33B | 10.39 | 8.00% | 4.35% | 49.44% | 102.42% | |
70 Outperform | $2.73B | 19.49 | 7.50% | 1.34% | 18.85% | -1.29% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $3.14B | 19.28 | 6.38% | 3.04% | 13.97% | -15.75% | |
62 Neutral | $3.10B | -8.67 | -10.51% | 4.41% | -57.23% | -320.45% | |
59 Neutral | $3.39B | 13.03 | 9.02% | 2.71% | -5.12% | 11.35% |
* Financial Sector Average
SFNC
Simmons 1st Nat'l
21.48
3.53
19.65%
BKU
BankUnited
46.52
13.54
41.04%
CBU
Community Bank System
64.30
9.83
18.05%
TOWN
TowneBank
33.99
1.16
3.53%
WSBC
WesBanco
34.69
5.29
18.01%
FBK
FB Financial
53.06
10.06
23.38%
Simmons 1st Nat'l Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Simmons First Shareholders Approve Expanded Long-Term Incentive Plan
Positive
May 13, 2026
At its May 13, 2026 annual meeting in Little Rock, Simmons First National Corporation shareholders approved an amended and restated 2023 Stock and Incentive Plan, expanding the share pool available for equity awards to 7,350,000 shares and extendi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Simmons First National Posts Strong Loan Growth, Higher Earnings
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
On April 16, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $68.5 million, or $0.47 per diluted share, down from $78.1 million and $0.54 in the prior quarter but up sharply from $32.4 million and $0.26 a year ea...
Executive/Board Changes
Simmons First Enhances Executive Change-in-Control Severance Terms
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation and Simmons Bank amended an existing Executive Change in Control Severance Agreement with executive James M. Brogdon, originally dated July 30, 2021. The amendment increases the formula for ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Simmons First National Launches New $175 Million Buyback
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation announced that its board of directors had authorized a new stock repurchase program allowing the company to buy back up to $175 million of its Class A common stock. The initiative, which rep...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.