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Principal Financial (PFG)
NASDAQ:PFG

Principal Financial (PFG) AI Stock Analysis

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PFG

Principal Financial

(NASDAQ:PFG)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$103.00
▲(8.59% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
Overall score is driven by strong cash generation and balance-sheet resilience, reinforced by a confident earnings-call outlook (EPS/ROE targets and continued capital returns). This is tempered by volatile revenue/profitability in the income statement and a mixed near-term technical picture, while valuation and dividend yield remain supportive.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow conversion
Consistently high free cash flow conversion and FCF tracking net income indicate strong earnings quality and durable internal funding. This supports sustained dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment without relying on external funding, preserving long-term financial flexibility and capital deployment optionality.
Asset management scale and momentum
Large, growing AUM and strong gross sales diversify fee streams and create scale advantages in distribution and product development. Growth in private markets expands higher-margin, sticky fee sources, reducing reliance on cyclical market fees and supporting durable revenue generation over the medium term.
Capital returns with balance-sheet resilience
The combination of meaningful capital returns and a reasonable leverage profile (debt/equity roughly 0.26–0.41) signals disciplined capital allocation. Management can return cash while maintaining solvency and reinvestment capacity, aligning shareholder value creation with balance-sheet stability.
Negative Factors
Revenue and profitability volatility
Material swings in revenue and margins reduce predictability of core earnings power and complicate multi-year planning. Cyclical or lumpy income undermines stable ROE improvement and makes capital targets harder to sustain, increasing execution risk for long-term targets.
Divestitures and runoff annuity headwinds
Asset sales and the Chile runoff create persistent near-term AUM and fee headwinds until capital is redeployed. This structurally reduces fee income and can depress management-fee rates during transition, requiring efficient redeployment to avoid longer-lasting revenue shortfalls.
Life insurance margin pressure
Sub-target life margins reflect adverse underwriting or claims trends that erode segment profitability and cash generation. If persistent, this reduces overall earnings resilience and requires pricing, product or risk-management fixes to restore durable margin levels.

Principal Financial (PFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Principal Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPrincipal Financial Group, Inc. provides retirement, asset management, and insurance products and services to businesses, individuals, and institutional clients worldwide. The company operates through Retirement and Income Solutions, Principal Global Investors, Principal International, and U.S. Insurance Solutions segments. The Retirement and Income Solutions segment provides a portfolio of asset accumulation products and services for retirement savings and income. It offers products and services for defined contribution plans, including 401(k) and 403(b) plans, defined benefit pension plans, nonqualified executive benefit plans, employee stock ownership plans, equity compensation, and pension risk transfer services; individual retirement accounts; investment only products; and mutual funds, individual variable annuities, and bank products. The Principal Global Investors segment provides equity, fixed income, real estate, and other alternative investments, as well as asset allocation, stable value management, and other structured investment strategies. The Principal International segment offers pension accumulation products and services, mutual funds, asset management, income annuities, and life insurance accumulation products, as well as voluntary savings plans in Brazil, Chile, Mexico, China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, India, and Southeast Asia. The U.S. Insurance Solutions segment provides specialty benefits, such as group dental and vision insurance, group life insurance, and group and individual disability insurance, as well as administers group dental, disability, and vision benefits; and individual life insurance products comprising universal, variable universal, indexed universal, and term life insurance products in the United States. It also offers insurance solutions for small and medium-sized businesses and their owners, as well as executives. Principal Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1879 and is based in Des Moines, Iowa.
How the Company Makes MoneyPrincipal Financial generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from fees and commissions associated with its investment management and insurance products. The Retirement and Income Solutions segment earns fees from managing retirement plans and providing annuities. Principal Global Investors contributes revenue through asset management fees based on the performance and size of investment portfolios managed for institutional and retail clients. The insurance segment generates income through premiums received from life and health insurance policies. Additionally, PFG benefits from strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and organizations, enhancing its distribution capabilities and expanding its client reach, which further contributes to its overall earnings.

Principal Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong, broad-based operational execution in 2025 with double-digit EPS growth, expanded margins, improved ROE, robust capital generation (92% free capital flow conversion) and significant asset management momentum (AUM +10%, private markets growth). Management set confident 2026 targets (EPS growth 9%-12%, ROE 15%-17%, 75%-85% free capital conversion) and plans continued capital returns. Headwinds are present but appear manageable: a negative quarterly net cash flow, divestiture-related revenue/AUM noise (including a Chilean runoff annuity), below-target growth in some specialty lines, and near-term seasonality/expense impacts. Overall, positive operational and capital metrics outweigh the limited and largely controlled challenges, supporting an upbeat outlook.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong EPS Growth
Adjusted non-GAAP EPS grew 12% for full-year 2025 (at the high end of target); reported EPS grew nearly 20%. Full-year non-GAAP operating earnings were $1.9 billion or $8.55 per diluted share.
Quarterly Operating Performance
Q4 non-GAAP operating earnings were $499 million or $2.24 per diluted share, a 7% increase versus a very strong Q4 2024; gain on a real estate transaction of approximately $40 million pretax noted below the line.
ROE and Margin Expansion
Non-GAAP operating ROE was 15.7% for 2025, up 120 basis points year over year and at the high end of the 14%-16% target; company-wide margin expanded to 31% (up 80 bps). ROE target raised to 15%-17% for 2026.
Capital Generation and Returns to Shareholders
Generated strong capital with $1.6 billion of excess available capital and returned over $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025 (approx. $851 million share repurchases and $684 million common dividends). Q4 returns totaled $448 million ($275 million buybacks, $172 million dividends).
Free Capital Flow Conversion
Delivered 92% free capital flow conversion in 2025; management targets 75%-85% conversion for 2026 (providing flexibility for buybacks, dividends, and growth investments).
AUM and Asset Management Momentum
Total company managed AUM $781 billion at year-end (up 10% YoY). Investment Management gross sales $127 billion (+16% YoY) with private markets sales up 50%; private markets AUM +12% YoY and positive net cash flow of $3.5 billion.
Retirement Business Growth and Engagement
Retirement transfer deposits $35 billion (+9% YoY); WSRS recurring deposits +5%; participant roll-ins $6.5 billion (+15% YoY); WSRS deferring participants +3% and average deferrals per member +2%.
SMB and Benefits Momentum
SMB WSRS recurring deposits +8% and transfer deposits +32%; account value net cash flow +$1.5 billion. Group benefits customers now average 3.13 products (+~3% YoY); life business market premium and fees +15%.
Underwriting and Claims Improvements in Specialty Benefits
Specialty benefits adjusted loss ratio improved to 59% (best in company history), a 130-basis-point improvement vs. 2024 and below the 60%-64% target range; operating margin expanded 120 bps to 16%.
Product & Distribution Wins and Innovation
Managed account adoption up 51% with account values >$9 billion; ETF platform record AUM $9 billion and nearly $2 billion positive net cash flow; international pension AUM +24% to $154 billion; DCIO sales nearly $8 billion.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Net Cash Flow Weakness
Net cash flow was negative $2.0 billion for the quarter (despite +$1.0 billion in private flows); reported net flows exclude $2.4 billion of dividends reinvested in mutual funds, contributing to quarter volatility.
Divestitures and Revenue Headwinds
Divested businesses (including ~$13 billion of divestitures) reduced net revenue growth (150 bps headwind in Investment Management in 2025) and created modest sequential AUM decline ($3 billion). Chile runoff annuity business had ~ $65 million revenue and ~$30 million pretax earnings in 2025 and is expected to close in Q3 2026, reducing revenue until redeployed capital is returned via buybacks.
Life Insurance Margin Pressure
Life insurance operating margin was 10% for the year, below the 12%-16% target, impacted by higher claim severity in the first half of 2025; premium and fees grew only 3% for the full year.
Specialty Benefits Revenue Growth Below Target
Specialty benefits premium and fee growth was 3% for the year, below management's target range (reasons cited include lower net new business despite improved underwriting results).
International Pension Near-Term Revenue Fluctuations
International pension net revenue declined 2% for the year due to foreign currency headwinds and the exit from the Hong Kong business, with Q4 affected by seasonality and one-time expenses (management expects improvement in Q1).
Management Fee Rate and Fee-Rate Variability
Quarterly management fee rate showed pressure related to divestiture noise and mix shift toward private markets; private-market strategies can depress AUM-based fee rates temporarily though they are expected to generate more transaction and performance fees over time.
Seasonality and Near-Term Expense Headwinds
First-quarter seasonality in Investment Management (deferred comp, elevated payroll taxes) expected to create $30M-$35M in seasonal expenses in 2026; dental claims typically higher in first half, impacting early-year results.
Muted Outlook for Performance Fees
Performance fees are expected to remain in the typical $30M-$40M range in 2026, implying limited near-term upside from performance fee volatility.
Company Guidance
The company guided to 2026 enterprise targets of 9%–12% EPS growth (excluding significant variances), 75%–85% free capital flow conversion, and a raised ROE target of 15%–17%, and said it will target $1.5–$1.8 billion of capital deployment (including $800M–$1.1B of share repurchases) while maintaining a ~40% dividend payout policy (announced $0.80/share, up $0.01 and ~7% vs. 2025); they expect variable investment income (VII) to improve year‑over‑year but did not bake it into baseline guidance. Unit-level 2026 targets include RIS net revenue growth of 2%–5% with margins of 38%–41% (expect to be at the upper end), Investment Management adjusted revenue growth of 4%–7% with margins of 35%–39%, International Pension margins of 46%–50% (upper half expected), Specialty Benefits premium & fees growth of 5%–9% with margins of 14%–17% (upper half expected) and a loss‑ratio target of 60%–64% (2026 expected at the low end), and Life premium & fee growth of –2% to –4% with margins of 12%–16% (2026 at the low end) while the business‑owner market grows >10%. Guidance assumes normal market conditions, notes Q1 seasonality (Investment Management seasonal expenses of ~$30M–$35M), and will continue to treat deviations in VII as significant variances.

Principal Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong and consistent cash generation (high free cash flow quality and growth) and a stable, reasonable leverage profile support a solid fundamental base. The key offset is meaningful income-statement volatility (revenue and profitability swings), which reduces predictability versus top-tier peers.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Revenue has been volatile, with declines in 2023 and a sharp contraction in 2025, despite a rebound in 2024. Profitability is mixed: net margin improved meaningfully from 2023 to 2024, but softened again in 2025, and results look less consistent given the large swings in operating profit and margins versus the 2022 peak. Overall, earnings power appears cyclical rather than steadily compounding, which limits the score despite periods of strong profitability.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Leverage looks reasonable and stable for the period, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.26–0.41 range and modest improvement versus the higher 2022 level. Equity is sizable and has grown from 2022 through 2025, supporting balance-sheet resilience. Return on equity is volatile (very high in 2022, much lower in 2023, and improved in 2024 before easing in 2025), suggesting profitability variability rather than balance-sheet stress.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently strong across the period, and free cash flow closely tracks net income (roughly ~0.96–0.99x), indicating solid earnings quality. Free cash flow growth is positive in 2023–2025 and particularly strong in 2025, even as reported revenue declined, which supports flexibility for capital returns and reinvestment. A minor caution is that the provided operating cash flow coverage figure is inconsistent/near-zero in several years, limiting interpretability of that specific data point.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue15.63B16.13B13.67B17.54B14.43B
Gross Profit7.06B7.35B5.90B11.04B7.08B
EBITDA1.67B2.15B1.01B6.28B2.19B
Net Income1.19B1.57B623.20M4.76B1.58B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets341.38B313.66B305.05B303.00B304.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.43B29.94B70.38B67.74B80.49B
Total Debt4.20B4.11B3.99B4.08B4.36B
Total Liabilities328.99B302.19B293.84B292.70B288.20B
Stockholders Equity11.88B11.09B10.92B10.00B16.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.44B4.53B3.69B3.06B3.09B
Operating Cash Flow4.54B4.60B3.79B3.17B3.22B
Investing Cash Flow-4.14B-5.40B-1.35B1.06B-5.66B
Financing Cash Flow-174.20M300.30M-2.59B-1.72B1.92B

Principal Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price94.85
Price Trends
50DMA
91.66
Positive
100DMA
86.98
Positive
200DMA
82.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.55
Positive
RSI
55.42
Neutral
STOCH
68.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 94.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.97, above the 50-day MA of 91.66, and above the 200-day MA of 82.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PFG.

Principal Financial Risk Analysis

Principal Financial disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Principal Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Principal Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$35.97B8.5519.54%16.68%-28.54%
79
Outperform
$38.77B10.5521.66%1.55%7.11%22.52%
73
Outperform
$20.57B18.0610.32%3.44%12.33%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$11.13B8.1214.42%5.77%-6.19%
67
Neutral
$42.84B14.717.40%2.02%-23.02%52.43%
46
Neutral
$11.78B-8.52-182.66%2.15%7.70%-155.12%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PFG
Principal Financial
94.68
10.42
12.37%
AEG
Aegon
7.60
1.66
28.03%
AIG
American International Group
80.15
2.13
2.73%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
99.36
7.26
7.88%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
141.06
25.54
22.11%
EQH
Equitable Holdings
41.11
-11.89
-22.43%

Principal Financial Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Principal Financial Reports Q4 2025 Assets Under Management
Positive
Jan 22, 2026

As of December 31, 2025, Principal Financial Group reported total assets under management of $781.0 billion, with $593.9 billion managed by Principal Asset Management – Investment Management and $153.9 billion by Principal Asset Management – International Pension, including $13.0 billion from operations disposed in the fourth quarter of 2025. For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, excluding the disposed operations, foreign currency translation, market performance, and other non–net cash flow items contributed an estimated 1.5% positive impact on beginning-period AUM, underscoring how the firm’s exposure to small- and mid-cap and international equity products, high-yield and preferred fixed income securities, and emerging-market exchange rate movements can materially influence its asset base during periods of market dislocation and return dispersion.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFG) stock is a Hold with a $89.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Principal Financial stock, see the PFG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 21, 2026