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American International Group (AIG)
NYSE:AIG
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American International Group
(NYSE:AIG)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$85.00
▲(5.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven mainly by solid underlying financial quality (strong, consistent cash generation and manageable leverage) and a bullish earnings-call setup (growth guidance, continued buybacks, and underwriting/ROE progress). This is tempered by choppy income-statement trends and uncertainty from sharp revenue and balance-sheet shifts, plus mixed technical signals with negative MACD and the stock still below its 200-day average.
Positive Factors
Underwriting Discipline & Combined Ratio
Sustained sub-90 accident-year combined ratios and rising underwriting income indicate durable underwriting discipline and improved risk selection. Over 2–6 months this supports steadier underwriting profits, higher core ROE, and reduced earnings volatility relative to peers reliant on pricing cycles.
Cash Generation & Capital Flexibility
Consistent operating and free cash flow and manageable leverage provide durable capacity to fund underwriting needs, investment repositioning, buybacks and dividends. This cash-generation profile supports capital returns and resilience through underwriting cycles over the medium term.
Strategic Partnerships & Digital Programs
Capital-efficient partnerships (Convex, SPV capacity) and GenAI deployments create structural levers for premium growth, margin improvement and selective risk transfer. These initiatives can sustainably enhance underwriting scale, analytics-driven pricing and capital efficiency across multiple years.
Negative Factors
Top-line Decline & Revenue Volatility
Material revenue contraction and a multi-year negative top-line trajectory raise questions about sustainable organic premium growth. Over several quarters this can constrain operating leverage, make expense targets harder to meet, and pressure long-term earnings resilience despite margin fixes.
Catastrophe Exposure & Earnings Volatility
Significant nat-cat charges highlight persistent exposure to frequency/severity shocks that can swing combined ratios and capital needs. Even with reinsurance, recurring catastrophe costs create multi-period earnings volatility and capital planning uncertainty for the property portfolio.
Pricing Pressure & Expense Execution Risk
Persisting pricing weakness in key lines and an expense ratio still above target imply execution risk. Management must deliver further cost reductions and profitable new-business growth; failure would limit ROE improvement and reduce capital available for buybacks or strategic investments.
American International Group (AIG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$42.81B
Dividend Yield2.02%
Average Volume (3M)4.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth-23.02%
EPS Growth52.43%
CountryUS
Employees22,200
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.96
Shares Outstanding536,559,700
10 Day Avg. Volume3,886,466
30 Day Avg. Volume4,487,299
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.81
P/FCF Ratio14.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$86.56Price Target Upside7.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
American International Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAmerican International Group, Inc. offers insurance products for commercial, institutional, and individual customers in North America and internationally. The company's General Insurance segment provides general liability, environmental, commercial automobile liability, workers' compensation, casualty, and crisis management insurance products; commercial, industrial, and energy-related property insurance; and aerospace, political risk, trade credit, portfolio solutions, crop, and marine insurance. It also provides professional liability insurance products for a range of businesses and risks, including directors and officers, mergers and acquisitions, fidelity, employment practices, fiduciary liability, cyber risk, kidnap and ransom, and errors and omissions insurance. In addition, this segment offers personal auto and property insurance, such as auto, homeowners, umbrella, yacht, fine art, and collections; voluntary and sponsor-paid personal accident; supplemental health products; extended warranty insurance products; and travel insurance products. Its Life and Retirement segment offers variable annuities, index and fixed annuities, and retail mutual funds; and financial planning and advisory services; record-keeping, plan administrative, and compliance services; and term life and universal life insurance. It also provides stable value wrap products, and structured settlement and pension risk transfer annuities; and corporate- and bank-owned life insurance and guaranteed investment contracts. This segment sells its products through independent marketing organizations, independent insurance agents, financial advisors, direct marketing, banks, and broker-dealers. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyAIG generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance policies and the management of investment portfolios. The company earns premiums from its General Insurance segment, which includes both commercial and personal lines, while the Life and Retirement segment provides income through premiums, fees, and investment income. AIG also benefits from investment income generated from its insurance reserves, which are invested in various financial instruments. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations enhance its market reach and can provide additional revenue opportunities. The company's diversified product offerings and global presence contribute to its ability to capture a wide range of revenue streams, making it resilient in varying market conditions.
American International Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong execution across underwriting, investments, capital returns and strategic M&A/partnerships, with notable improvement in ROE, underwriting income, investment yield and several growth initiatives (GenAI deployment, Convex, Everest, SPVs). Headwinds remain in North America property and certain personal and financial lines where pricing and volume pressures persist, and the expense ratio is improved but still above the company's sub-30% target. On balance the positives — robust earnings, disciplined renewals with meaningful reinsurance savings, active capital returns, and clear growth initiatives — materially outweigh the manageable headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Earnings Growth
Q4 adjusted after-tax income per diluted share of $1.96, up 51% year-over-year; full-year adjusted after-tax income per diluted share $7.09, up 43% YoY. Adjusted after-tax income for 2025 was $4.0 billion, up 24% YoY.
Robust Underwriting Results
Q4 underwriting income $670 million, up 48% YoY; full-year underwriting income $2.3 billion, up 22% YoY — first year since 2008 to deliver >$2B in underwriting income excluding divested businesses. Q4 accident-year combined ratio (as adjusted) 88.9% (17th consecutive sub-90% quarter); full-year accident-year combined ratio 88.3% and calendar year combined ratio 90.1%.
Premium Growth and New Business Momentum
Global commercial net premiums written grew 3% in Q4 and totaled $17.4 billion for full-year 2025 (+3% YoY; +4% adjusted for prior-year closeout). Global commercial new business grew 9% FY; international new business +10% FY and global specialty +15%; Q4 international new business +14%.
Expense and ROE Improvement
Expense ratio ended 2025 at 31.1%, down 90 basis points YoY with a management target of sub-30% by 2027. Core operating ROE improved to 11.1%, a 200 basis point improvement YoY and the first adjusted ROE above 10% in over a decade.
Improved Investment Income and Yields
Net investment income on an APTI basis was $3.8 billion for the year (up 8% YoY); Q4 APTI net investment income $954 million, up 9% YoY. Average new-money yield on core fixed income was ~4.59% in Q4, +68 basis points YoY; core fixed income contributed $3.1 billion, +17% YoY.
Strong Capital Returns and Balance Sheet Position
Returned $6.8 billion of capital in 2025 (including $5.8 billion of repurchases and $1.0 billion in dividends); quarterly dividend increased 12.5%. Debt outstanding $9 billion with a debt-to-total-capital ratio of 18%. Book value per share $76.44, up 9% YoY; adjusted tangible BVPS $70.37, up 4% YoY.
Favorable Reinsurance Renewals
January 1 reinsurance renewals produced enhanced terms: weighted average risk-adjusted rate decrease in excess of 15% on property catastrophe (substantial savings), improved attachment/return period profile, casualty quota share maintained attractive ceding commission in the low 30s, and added the Everest portfolio on AIG pricing without nominal cost increase.
Strategic Transactions and Partnerships
Convex transaction (~35% equity interest and 9.9% stake in Onyx) plus a 7.5% whole-account quota share in 2026 (rising to 10% in 2027 and 12.5% in 2028) expected to be accretive in 2026. Syndicate 2479 launched with Amwins/Blackstone ($300M capacity). Everest renewal-rights purchase price adjusted to $270M with renewable premium ~ $1.8B and early conversion retention ~75% (~$180M GWP retained in Jan).
GenAI and Digital Progress
Expanded 'Underwriting Assist' to seven additional lines (including Lexington); Lexington submission count increased 26% YoY. Company reached >370,000 submissions toward a 500,000 submission ambition by 2030. GenAI used to accelerate Everest conversion and to support SPV underwriting/analytics.
2026 Growth and Capital Guidance
Company expects low-to-mid-teens net premiums written growth in general insurance for full-year 2026 and intends to repurchase at least $1 billion of common shares in 2026, with additional repurchases likely using proceeds from further Corbridge sell-downs.
Negative Updates
Pressure in North America Property
North America retail property contracted (management cited an ~8% full-year contraction) as the company reduced appetite in the current market. Full-year retail property pricing was down ~10% and excess & surplus pricing down ~13%, reflecting continued competitive pressure.
Global Personal Headwinds from Reinsurance Structure
Global personal net premiums written declined (full-year contracted ~3%; Q4 down ~6%) driven by higher ceded premiums under the high-net-worth quota share treaty. Global personal accident-year combined ratio (as adjusted) remained elevated at ~95.3% despite YoY improvement.
Loss Ratio and Business-Mix Shifts
Q4 accident-year loss ratio was 56.8%, up 100 basis points YoY (70 bps excluding travel). North America commercial accident-year combined ratio (as adjusted) rose to 87.2% (+260 bps YoY) driven by mix shift toward higher-loss-ratio casualty and captives business. International commercial AY combined ratio (as adjusted) increased to 85.9% (+230 bps YoY) with energy and mix effects contributing.
Expense Ratio Still Above Target and One-time Allocations
Despite a 90 bps YoY improvement to 31.1% in 2025, expense ratio remains above the sub-30% target and included absorption of ~ $300 million of corporate parent expenses into General Insurance and some Q4 one-time cleanup items, requiring further cost actions to hit the 2027 goal.
Catastrophe Charges and Volatility
Q4 catastrophe losses totaled ~$125 million (≈2.1 loss-ratio points). Full-year catastrophe-related charges were $920 million (≈3.9 loss-ratio points), highlighting continued exposure to nat cat events and the resulting volatility in results.
Rate Pressure in Select Lines and Regions
Pricing headwinds persisted in several areas: North America financial lines pricing down ~2%, international commercial overall pricing down ~1–2% (financial lines down ~4%), and energy pricing down ~10%, which constrain growth and margin in those segments.
Modest Top-line Growth in Some Measures
General insurance net premiums written grew modestly (Q4 NWP +1%; full-year GI NWP +2%), indicating that top-line expansion was measured despite strategic transactions and new-business gains.
Execution Risk on Remaining Corbridge Stake
Remaining Corbridge stake was 10.1% at year-end and planned sell-down (enabled by Nippon Life waiving the 9.9% retention) is subject to market conditions and approvals; proceeds are expected for repurchases but timing/amounts are uncertain.
Company Guidance
AIG guided to full‑year 2026 net premiums written growth of low‑to‑mid‑teens and reaffirmed its Investor Day targets (including an expense‑ratio goal of below 30% by 2027, with meaningful improvement expected in 2026); it committed to at least $1 billion of share repurchases in 2026 (with the majority of any proceeds from monetizing its remaining 10.1% Corbridge stake—now able to be sold after Nippon Life waived the 9.9% retention—likely deployed to additional buybacks). Management also expects near‑term accretion from announced strategic deals (Convex: ~35% equity interest plus 9.9% Onyx stake and a 7.5% whole‑account quota share in 2026 rising to 10% in 2027 and 12.5% in 2028; Everest renewal rights purchase price now expected ≈$270M with up to $70M downside and an anticipated ~10‑point combined‑ratio benefit on converted business), material reinsurance savings (property catastrophe weighted average risk‑adjusted rate decrease in excess of 15%), expanded SPV capacity (Syndicate 2479 stamp capacity $300M), and broad GenAI deployments in 2026 (underwriting and claims “AIG Assist,” an orchestration layer and digital twin) to drive premium growth, margin improvement and the company’s ability to meet or exceed its 2027 objectives.American International Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cash flow is a clear strength with consistently positive operating and free cash flow and improved FCF growth in 2025, while leverage appears manageable in recent years. Offsetting this, profitability and revenues have been volatile, including periodic losses, a sharp recent revenue contraction, and notable balance-sheet reshaping that raises sustainability/visibility questions.Income Statement
Profitability has been volatile across the period, swinging from a loss (2020, 2024) to strong profits (2021–2023 and 2025). Reported margins look exceptionally strong in 2025, but this comes alongside an extreme revenue decline versus the prior year, which raises questions about earnings quality and sustainability. Longer-term, revenue has generally trended down (negative growth in most years), even as operating profit held up in several years—good resilience, but inconsistent top-line trajectory.54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears moderate for the most recent years, with debt running at roughly a fifth of equity in 2024–2025, supporting balance-sheet flexibility. Equity remains sizable versus debt, and returns on equity are positive again in 2025 after turning negative in 2024. A key watch-out is the sharp drop in total assets from 2023 to 2024–2025 (while equity is comparatively stable), suggesting meaningful balance-sheet reshaping that investors should understand.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across all years shown, with a notable rebound in 2023 and a modest step-up again in 2025. Free cash flow growth improved to +18% in 2025 after being slightly down in 2024. The main weakness is variability in annual cash levels (e.g., 2020 vs. 2021/2023), which is typical in insurance but still adds earnings/cash predictability risk.68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 26.77B | 27.27B | 27.96B | 29.98B | 51.98B |
| Gross Profit | 9.24B | 9.28B | 4.37B | 7.26B | 20.11B |
| EBITDA | 7.73B | 7.93B | 7.22B | 8.24B | 19.19B |
| Net Income | 3.10B | -1.40B | 3.64B | 10.23B | 10.37B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 161.25B | 161.32B | 539.31B | 522.23B | 596.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.41B | 37.41B | 79.65B | 240.57B | 292.76B |
| Total Debt | 9.19B | 8.92B | 10.86B | 27.18B | 30.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 120.09B | 118.77B | 488.00B | 478.77B | 527.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 41.14B | 42.52B | 45.35B | 40.97B | 65.96B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.31B | 3.27B | 6.24B | 4.13B | 6.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.31B | 3.27B | 6.24B | 4.13B | 6.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.19B | 1.67B | -7.02B | -3.63B | -3.28B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.54B | -5.06B | 782.00M | -602.00M | -3.68B |
American International Group Technical Analysis
Positive
80.44
Price Trends
78.82
Positive
78.40
Positive
79.48
Positive
Market Momentum
0.81
Negative
63.51
Neutral
94.35
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AIG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 80.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.21, above the 50-day MA of 78.82, and above the 200-day MA of 79.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AIG.
American International Group Risk Analysis
American International Group disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American International Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American International Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $35.56B | 8.46 | 19.54% | ― | 16.68% | -28.54% | |
79 Outperform | $39.36B | 10.61 | 21.66% | 1.55% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
73 Outperform | $20.31B | 17.61 | 10.32% | 3.44% | 12.33% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $42.81B | 14.70 | 7.40% | 2.02% | -23.02% | 52.43% | |
67 Neutral | $11.62B | 8.61 | 14.42% | 5.77% | -6.19% | ― | |
45 Neutral | $13.05B | -9.19 | -182.66% | 2.15% | 7.70% | -155.12% |
* Financial Sector Average
AIG
American International Group
80.44
3.52
4.57%
AEG
Aegon
7.53
1.70
29.16%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
98.49
8.94
9.98%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
142.19
30.26
27.04%
PFG
Principal Financial
95.76
13.83
16.88%
EQH
Equitable Holdings
44.22
-7.97
-15.26%
American International Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
AIG reports strong Q4 2025 earnings and shareholder returns
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
American International Group, Inc. reported on February 10, 2026, that for the fourth quarter of 2025 it generated adjusted after-tax income of $1.96 per diluted share, up 51% year-over-year, with General Insurance underwriting income rising 48% to $670 million and a strong combined ratio of 88.8%. The board also declared a cash dividend of $0.45 per common share as AIG returned $809 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter, including $567 million of buybacks.
For full year 2025, AIG swung from a net loss in the prior year to net income of $5.43 per diluted share and lifted adjusted after-tax income per share 43% to $7.09, supported by a 22% increase in General Insurance underwriting income to $2.3 billion and a 90.1% combined ratio. The company returned $6.8 billion to shareholders over the year, maintained double-digit core operating ROE, and expanded its strategic footprint through capital-efficient partnerships and minority stakes aimed at supporting earnings and return on equity in 2026.
Management highlighted a strengthened balance sheet, including an 18.0% debt-to-total-capital ratio, and modest growth in Global Commercial net premiums written, driven by new business. AIG said it entered 2026 with momentum after favorable January 1 reinsurance renewals, signaling continued focus on underwriting discipline, portfolio quality, and shareholder returns, which together reinforce its competitive positioning in global commercial insurance.
The most recent analyst rating on (AIG) stock is a Hold with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American International Group stock, see the AIG Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
American International Group Announces CEO Succession and Transition
Positive
Jan 6, 2026
On January 6, 2026, American International Group announced that Chairman and CEO Peter Zaffino will transition to Executive Chair and retire as CEO by mid-2026, after leading a multi-year transformation that restored AIG’s profitability, strengthened its balance sheet, and repositioned the group as a top-performing global property and casualty insurer. As part of a planned succession process, the board has appointed long-time insurance executive Eric Andersen, formerly President of Aon, as President and CEO-elect effective February 16, 2026, with an expectation he will assume the CEO role and join the board after June 1, 2026, under compensation packages designed to support continuity and long-term performance, signaling a focus on sustaining underwriting discipline, digital and data initiatives, and shareholder value creation following Zaffino’s turnaround tenure, which included five consecutive years of underwriting profitability and significant capital returns to investors from 2021 to 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (AIG) stock is a Buy with a $96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American International Group stock, see the AIG Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
AIG Updates By-Laws to Align with Delaware Law
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025
On December 10, 2025, American International Group, Inc. amended and restated its By-Laws to align with changes in Delaware law and introduce various updates. These amendments include provisions for the Board to adopt rules for shareholder meetings, determine the number of directors, and set conditions under which shareholder requests for special meetings may be denied, among other changes. This move reflects AIG’s efforts to streamline governance and ensure compliance with legal standards, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and corporate governance practices.
The most recent analyst rating on (AIG) stock is a Hold with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American International Group stock, see the AIG Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
AIG Finalizes Agreement with John Neal
Neutral
Nov 21, 2025
American International Group, Inc. (AIG) has finalized the documentation related to the mutual decision that John Neal will not be joining the company. As part of the agreement, AIG will compensate Mr. Neal with $2,700,000 for incentives he forewent at his former employer.
The most recent analyst rating on (AIG) stock is a Hold with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American International Group stock, see the AIG Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
AIG President Appointment Change Announced
Neutral
Nov 14, 2025
American International Group, Inc. (AIG) announced that John Neal, who was set to become President on December 1, 2025, will no longer join the company due to personal reasons. AIG’s Chairman & CEO, Peter Zaffino, will continue to collaborate with the Board to optimize the company’s organizational structure, aiming to enhance performance for clients, partners, and stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (AIG) stock is a Hold with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American International Group stock, see the AIG Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.