Arch Capital (ACGL)
NASDAQ:ACGL
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Arch Capital Group
(NASDAQ:ACGL)
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Rating:84Outperform
Price Target:
$116.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (scaled revenue, robust underwriting profitability, rising equity, and solid cash generation). Valuation is supportive due to a low P/E, and technicals are positive with price above key moving averages and a positive MACD. The main constraints are insurance-cycle volatility and earnings-call risks around competitive pricing pressure and non-recurring tax/expense benefits.
Positive Factors
Underwriting performance
A consolidated combined ratio near 81% signals durable underwriting discipline and loss control across segments. Sustained low combined ratios translate to consistent underwriting profits, improving internal capital generation and reducing reliance on investment returns to drive earnings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Property catastrophe pricing pressure
Material rate declines in property catastrophe renewals indicate persistent market capacity and competition that can erode premium yields and top-line growth. Over multiple renewal cycles this pressures underwriting margins and forces stricter risk selection or reduced exposure to maintain long-term profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Underwriting performance
A consolidated combined ratio near 81% signals durable underwriting discipline and loss control across segments. Sustained low combined ratios translate to consistent underwriting profits, improving internal capital generation and reducing reliance on investment returns to drive earnings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$35.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.1
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth16.68%
EPS Growth-28.54%
CountryUS
Employees7,200
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.98
Shares Outstanding355,803,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,661,129
30 Day Avg. Volume1,728,689
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)1.78
P/FCF Ratio5.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$108.31Price Target Upside9.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)9.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.52B
Arch Capital Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products worldwide. The company's Insurance segment offers primary and excess casualty coverages; loss sensitive primary casualty insu...
How the Company Makes Money
Arch Capital Group generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance and reinsurance policies. The company collects premiums from policyholders, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, Arch earns inves...
Arch Capital Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Premiums Written by Segment
Captures the total premiums from all policies issued before deductions, offering a view of the company's overall sales volume and market reach.
Captures the total premiums from all policies issued before deductions, offering a view of the company's overall sales volume and market reach.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyArch Capital Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operating and capital results — record and multi-year achievements across segments, robust cash generation, meaningful share repurchases, and improved book value — while also acknowledging increasing competition, rate pressure (notably in property catastrophe), some top-line declines and one-time tax/expense benefits that may not repeat. Management emphasized disciplined cycle management, underwriting focus and capital flexibility to navigate margin pressure and fund buybacks or deployment opportunities.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Annual Earnings
Q4 after-tax operating income of $1.1 billion, up 26% year-over-year; full year after-tax operating income of $3.7 billion (a new high); after-tax operating earnings per share of $9.84 for 2025.
Negative Updates
Top-Line Pressure and Net Premium Declines
Insurance gross premium return grew 2% but net premiums written declined ~4% year-over-year (timing of ceded premium accruals and changes in retention). Reinsurance gross premium return was flat and net premiums written were down ~5.2% year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly and Annual Earnings
Q4 after-tax operating income of $1.1 billion, up 26% year-over-year; full year after-tax operating income of $3.7 billion (a new high); after-tax operating earnings per share of $9.84 for 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the Bermuda QRTC benefit will meaningfully reduce expenses in 2026, guiding a Reinsurance operating expense ratio of about 3.9–4.5% and corporate expenses of roughly $80–$90 million (with the QRTC and some one‑time items not expected to recur); they expect the annualized effective tax rate to return to 16–18% for 2026, reaffirmed a peak‑zone natural catastrophe PML of $1.9 billion (8.2% of tangible shareholders’ equity) and forecast full‑year catastrophe losses of roughly 7–8% of net earned premium, noted investable assets of about $47.4 billion, and reiterated capital flexibility with continued buybacks (Q4 repurchases $798M; $1.9B for FY‑2025 = 21.2M shares or 5.6% of starting shares, plus $349M repurchased year‑to‑date).Arch Capital Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 19.93B | 17.44B | 13.29B | 9.66B | 8.92B |
| Gross Profit | 7.41B | 6.45B | 4.74B | 2.89B | 3.04B |
| EBITDA | 5.35B | 4.85B | 3.61B | 1.72B | 2.32B |
| Net Income | 4.40B | 4.31B | 4.44B | 1.48B | 2.16B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 67.06B | 70.91B | 58.91B | 47.99B | 45.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.54B | 9.31B | 8.05B | 6.50B | 7.14B |
| Total Debt | 2.73B | 2.73B | 2.73B | 2.73B | 2.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 42.85B | 50.09B | 40.55B | 35.07B | 31.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.21B | 20.82B | 18.35B | 12.91B | 13.55B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.13B | 6.62B | 5.70B | 3.76B | 3.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.17B | 6.67B | 5.75B | 3.82B | 3.43B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.04B | -4.46B | -5.47B | -3.10B | -2.14B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.89B | -1.93B | -69.00M | -706.00M | -1.23B |
Arch Capital Group Technical Analysis
Positive
98.60
Price Trends
96.72
Positive
95.15
Positive
92.31
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
63.59
Neutral
92.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 98.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.61, above the 50-day MA of 96.72, and above the 200-day MA of 92.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACGL.
Arch Capital Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $35.08B | 7.15 | 19.02% | ― | 16.68% | -28.54% | |
79 Outperform | $38.32B | 10.14 | 21.37% | 1.55% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
73 Outperform | $20.43B | 9.49 | 10.26% | 3.44% | 12.33% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $10.16B | 11.89 | 15.32% | 6.98% | 7.08% | -4.36% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $41.55B | 15.62 | 7.50% | 2.02% | -23.02% | 52.43% | |
50 Neutral | $10.89B | 15.82 | -152.32% | 2.15% | 7.70% | -155.12% |
* Financial Sector Average
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
98.60
8.02
8.85%
AIG
American International Group
77.43
-2.13
-2.68%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
138.90
26.00
23.03%
ORI
Old Republic International
41.34
7.76
23.09%
PFG
Principal Financial
94.20
24.92
35.97%
EQH
Equitable Holdings
38.84
-5.90
-13.19%
Arch Capital Group Corporate Events
Dividends
Arch Capital Declares Dividends on Preferred Share Series
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Arch Capital Group’s board declared a dividend on 13.2 million depositary shares representing its 5.45% Non-Cumulative Preferred Shares, Series F, each with a $25 liquidation preference. The Series F dividend for the pe...
Executive/Board Changes
Arch Capital Announces Planned Board Transition for 2026
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026
On January 15, 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. announced that longtime director John D. Vollaro, who has served on its board for 17 years and has been with the company for 24 years, will not stand for reelection at the company’s 2026 annual me...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.