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Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL)
NASDAQ:ACGL

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) AI Stock Analysis

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Arch Capital Group

(NASDAQ:ACGL)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$106.00
▲( 14.16% Upside)
Arch Capital Group's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by neutral technical indicators. Liquidity concerns and economic uncertainty present risks, but the company's solid market position provides a strong foundation for growth.
Positive Factors
Earnings Growth
The company is well positioned for long term earnings and book value growth.
Underwriting Performance
Reinsurance segment showed strong underwriting, with a core combined ratio of 74.8% vs consensus of 76.1%.
Negative Factors
Market Competition
ACGL traded down on the weaker premium growth and its view on the market becoming more competitive.
Premium Growth
Total company gross written premiums of $4,756 million came in well below consensus of $5,046 million.

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Arch Capital Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products worldwide. The company's Insurance segment offers primary and excess casualty coverages; loss sensitive primary casualty insurance programs; collateral protection, debt cancellation, and service contract reimbursement products; directors' and officers' liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices and fiduciary liability, crime, professional indemnity, and other financial related coverages; medical professional and general liability insurance coverages; and workers' compensation and umbrella liability, as well as commercial automobile and inland marine products. It also provides property, energy, marine, and aviation insurance; travel insurance; accident, disability, and medical plan insurance coverages; captive insurance programs; employer's liability; and contract and commercial surety coverages. This segment markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. Its Reinsurance segment provides casualty reinsurance for third party liability and workers' compensation exposures; marine and aviation; surety, accident and health, workers' compensation catastrophe, agriculture, trade credit, and political risk products; reinsurance protection for catastrophic losses, and personal lines and commercial property exposures; life reinsurance; casualty clash; and risk management solutions. This segment markets its reinsurance products through brokers. The company's Mortgage segment offers direct mortgage insurance and mortgage reinsurance. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Pembroke, Bermuda.
How the Company Makes MoneyArch Capital Group makes money primarily through its diverse portfolio of insurance and reinsurance products. The company collects premiums from policyholders in exchange for providing coverage against potential losses. In the insurance sector, revenue is generated through underwriting profits, where premiums collected exceed the claims paid out. In the reinsurance sector, Arch Capital earns money by providing risk management solutions to other insurers, receiving premiums in return for taking on some of their risk exposures. The mortgage insurance segment contributes to revenue by offering private mortgage insurance to lenders, protecting them against borrower defaults. Additionally, Arch Capital leverages its investment portfolio, earning income through interest, dividends, and capital gains from its investment operations. Key partnerships with brokers and agents across the globe also play a significant role in expanding their distribution network and enhancing revenue streams.

Arch Capital Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Arch Capital Group demonstrates a robust financial profile with strong revenue growth and high profitability margins. The income statement scores high due to significant revenue growth and strong profitability margins. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and a strong capital position, but concerns about declining cash reserves affect its score. Cash flow is strong with positive operating cash flow trends, despite negative investing cash flow. Overall, liquidity management needs attention to sustain growth.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Arch Capital Group shows strong income statement metrics with a consistent increase in total revenue from $8.29B in 2020 to $17.80B TTM. The gross profit margin remains robust above 95% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin improved to 21.16% TTM, reflecting enhanced profitability. Revenue growth has been significant, especially from 2022 to 2024, reinforcing a positive trajectory. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins fluctuated, suggesting potential volatility in operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is solid with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 TTM, indicating a conservative leverage approach. The equity ratio of 28.66% TTM suggests a strong capital position. Return on equity is satisfactory at 17.48% TTM, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate earnings. Despite the overall stability, the declining cash reserves from 2020 to TTM raise concerns about liquidity management.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The cash flow statement highlights a positive trend in operating cash flow, rising to $6.57B TTM. The free cash flow growth rate has been commendable, with stable free cash flow levels over time. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.74 TTM indicates strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, the consistent negative investing cash flow and fluctuations in financing cash flow could suggest strategic investments and financing adjustments.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
17.74B17.44B13.63B9.60B8.93B8.29B
Gross Profit
17.42B17.20B12.24B8.37B7.84B7.35B
EBIT
7.90B4.47B13.54B1.69B2.25B1.47B
EBITDA
4.03B4.85B3.33B1.61B1.96B1.77B
Net Income Common Stockholders
3.77B4.31B4.44B1.48B2.16B1.41B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.19B979.00M8.03B21.87B22.40B21.55B
Total Assets
75.18B70.91B58.91B47.99B45.10B43.28B
Total Debt
2.73B2.73B2.73B2.73B2.72B3.02B
Net Debt
1.54B1.75B1.81B1.87B1.87B2.11B
Total Liabilities
53.63B50.09B40.55B35.07B31.55B29.29B
Stockholders Equity
21.55B20.82B18.35B12.91B13.55B13.11B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
6.52B6.62B5.70B3.76B3.39B2.85B
Operating Cash Flow
6.57B6.67B5.75B3.82B3.43B2.89B
Investing Cash Flow
-4.06B-4.46B-5.47B-3.10B-2.14B-3.04B
Financing Cash Flow
-2.12B-1.93B-69.00M-706.00M-1.23B521.28M

Arch Capital Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price92.85
Price Trends
50DMA
92.70
Positive
100DMA
92.30
Positive
200DMA
96.25
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.48
Negative
RSI
49.71
Neutral
STOCH
65.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACGL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 92.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 92.79, above the 50-day MA of 92.70, and below the 200-day MA of 96.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ACGL.

Arch Capital Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
HIHIG
83
Outperform
$37.28B13.0818.49%1.51%7.55%14.16%
78
Outperform
$35.30B9.5218.42%25.29%-23.19%
ORORI
75
Outperform
$9.49B12.5412.68%2.83%10.83%20.74%
PFPFG
73
Outperform
$18.05B17.269.70%3.61%5.84%-10.64%
EQEQH
71
Outperform
$16.32B14.6056.67%1.79%12.41%14.76%
64
Neutral
$12.78B9.877.67%17015.06%12.34%-5.99%
AIAIG
61
Neutral
$48.46B18.796.13%1.90%-44.30%-33.09%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
91.97
-4.95
-5.11%
AIG
American International Group
82.63
6.68
8.80%
HIG
Hartford Financial
129.05
30.12
30.45%
ORI
Old Republic International
37.58
8.91
31.08%
PFG
Principal Financial
77.36
-1.25
-1.59%
EQH
Equitable Holdings
51.84
12.29
31.07%

Arch Capital Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.50%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strong performance in several segments such as reinsurance and the mortgage unit, despite facing challenges like catastrophe losses and economic uncertainties. While growth in some areas was robust, competition and macroeconomic risks posed significant concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid First Quarter Results
Arch Capital reported $587 million in after-tax operating income, with operating earnings per share at $1.54, and an annualized operating return on equity of 11.5%.
Strong Reinsurance Performance
Despite substantial catastrophe losses, the reinsurance segment maintained a 91.8 combined ratio, demonstrating strong underlying profitability.
Insurance Segment Growth
The insurance segment saw a 25% increase in net premium return, with $1.9 billion written in the quarter, driven by the integration of the middle market commercial and entertainment businesses.
Mortgage Segment Stability
The Mortgage segment contributed $252 million in underwriting income, with a low delinquency rate in the U.S. MI business at 1.96%.
Increased Investment Assets
Invested assets rose by 4% to $43.1 billion, providing a sustainable contribution to group earnings.
Negative Updates
Catastrophe Losses Impact
The Property and Casualty segment faced $547 million in catastrophe losses due to the California wildfires.
Challenges in Specialty Lines
Specialty premium decreased due to non-renewing a large structure transaction, weaker margins in cyber, and challenges in the international treaty business.
Economic Uncertainty and Tariffs
Emerging macroeconomic concerns, including potential tariffs, raised inflationary risks and created uncertainty for insured parties.
Headwinds in Mortgage Origination
Economic uncertainty, limited housing supply, and high mortgage rates created headwinds for new mortgage origination.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Arch Capital reported robust financial results, with after-tax operating income of $587 million and operating earnings per share of $1.54, translating to an annualized operating return on equity of 11.5%. Despite facing $547 million in catastrophe losses, primarily from the California wildfire, the company maintained a strong position in the competitive Property and Casualty (P&C) market. The reinsurance segment achieved a combined ratio of 91.8%, including 18 points from catastrophe losses, and experienced modest growth in net premium written amid increased competition. Meanwhile, Arch's insurance segment saw a 25% increase in net premium to $1.9 billion, bolstered by the acquisition of middle market commercial and entertainment businesses. The mortgage segment contributed $252 million of underwriting income, supported by low delinquency rates below 2%. Arch's invested assets rose by 4% to $43.1 billion, and the company maintained strong cash flow from operations at approximately $1.5 billion for the quarter. In terms of capital management, Arch repurchased $196 million worth of common shares in the first quarter and an additional $100 million in April, reflecting its disciplined approach to enhancing shareholder returns.

Arch Capital Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsDividends
Arch Capital Group Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
May 8, 2025

Arch Capital Group Ltd. held its annual meeting of shareholders on May 7, 2025, where approximately 90% of outstanding shares were represented. Key decisions included the election of four Class III directors, approval of executive compensation, and ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor. Additionally, the board declared dividends for Series F and Series G preferred shares, payable on June 30 and September 30, 2025, respectively.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.