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Hartford Insurance (HIG)
NYSE:HIG
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Hartford Insurance
(NYSE:HIG)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$161.00
▲(14.56% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
HIG scores well primarily on improving financial performance (strong profitability/ROE with conservative leverage) and a positive earnings outlook with accelerating capital returns and investment income tailwinds. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E. The score is moderated by typical insurer volatility (reserve/cat and cash timing) and only moderately strong technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability and ROE
Sustained core earnings and a ~19.4% ROE signal durable capital efficiency across underwriting and investments. High ROE supports repeatable capital returns (dividends/buybacks) and internal reinvestment capacity, underpinned by disciplined underwriting and improving margins.
Technology-led distribution and product rebuild (Prevail)
Rolling out Prevail and AI-first investments creates a structural advantage in agency distribution and personal lines efficiency. A standardized platform boosts scale, improves underwriting/claims workflows, and can sustainably lower acquisition and servicing costs over multiple years.
Conservative balance sheet and solid cash generation
Improving leverage and consistently positive operating cash flow (stepped from ~$4.2B to ~$5.9B) underpin solvency and capital flexibility. Durable cash generation supports reinsurance, buybacks, dividends and investment in tech without compromising balance-sheet resilience.
Negative Factors
Reserve risk: asbestos & environmental
Material reserve additions for asbestos/environmental exposures highlight latent liability risk that can crystallize over years. Such reserve volatility can erode underwriting margin and capital, requiring ongoing monitoring and potentially higher future pricing or capital cushions.
Rising disability loss trends
Worsening disability loss ratios signal structural headwinds in employee benefits underwriting. Persistent higher claim frequency/severity reduces margins, may necessitate sustained pricing action or product redesign, and could constrain growth in benefits without corrective measures.
Casualty inflation and pricing uncertainty
Elevated casualty trends and moderating property/package pricing create lasting underwriting pressure. If severity and legal inflation persist, Hartford must sustain disciplined pricing and tighter underwriting, which may limit top-line expansion in affected commercial lines over several quarters.
Hartford Insurance (HIG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.77B
Dividend Yield1.55%
Average Volume (3M)1.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth7.11%
EPS Growth22.52%
CountryUS
Employees19,100
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.06
Shares Outstanding275,863,220
10 Day Avg. Volume1,452,845
30 Day Avg. Volume1,518,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)2.05
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio6.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$152.43Price Target Upside8.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)13.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.80B
Hartford Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its Commercial Lines segment offers workers' compensation, property, automobile, liability, umbrella, bond, marine, livestock, and reinsurance; and customized insurance products and risk management services, including professional liability, bond, surety, and specialty casualty coverages through regional offices, branches, sales and policyholder service centers, independent retail agents and brokers, wholesale agents, and reinsurance brokers. The company's Personal Lines segment provides automobile, homeowners, and personal umbrella coverages through direct-to-consumer channel and independent agents. Its Property & Casualty Other Operations segment offers coverage for asbestos and environmental exposures. The company's Group Benefits segment provides group life, disability, and other group coverages to members of employer groups, associations, and affinity groups through direct insurance policies; reinsurance to other insurance companies; employer paid and voluntary product coverages; disability underwriting, administration, and claims processing to self-funded employer plans; and a single-company leave management solution. This segment distributes its group insurance products and services through brokers, consultants, third-party administrators, trade associations, and private exchanges. Its Hartford Funds segment offers investment products for retail and retirement accounts; exchange-traded products through broker-dealer organizations, independent financial advisers, defined contribution plans, financial consultants, bank trust groups, and registered investment advisers; and investment management and administrative services, such as product design, implementation, and oversight. The company was founded in 1810 and is headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyHartford generates revenue through multiple key streams. The Property & Casualty segment earns money by underwriting various insurance policies and collecting premiums from policyholders, which can include commercial and personal lines insurance. The Group Benefits segment provides employee benefits solutions, where revenue is derived from premiums paid by employers for coverage such as short-term disability and group life insurance. Additionally, Hartford's Mutual Funds segment earns management fees from investment products and services offered to consumers and institutions. The company also benefits from investment income generated from its own investment portfolio, which includes fixed income and equity securities. Strategic partnerships with brokers and agents enhance its distribution capabilities, further contributing to its earnings.
Hartford Insurance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHartford Insurance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive outlook: strong full-year and quarterly core earnings, high ROE, continued top-line growth in Business Insurance (notably small business and ENS binding), significant investment and early payoffs from technology/AI, solid investment income, and an active capital return program. Headwinds are present but manageable — increases in asbestos/environmental reserves, moderation in property pricing, rising disability loss trends, and higher expense ratios due to strategic investments. Management emphasizes disciplined underwriting, margin focus, and confidence in taking market share, suggesting the positives materially outweigh the negatives.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Core Earnings and ROE
Core earnings of $3.8 billion for 2025 with core earnings ROE of 19.4%, reflecting strong enterprise profitability and return on equity.
Robust Q4 Core Earnings and EPS
Fourth quarter core earnings of $1.1 billion, or $4.60 per diluted share, demonstrating continued quarterly profitability.
Business Insurance Top-Line Growth and Margin
Business Insurance delivered top-line growth (8% cited; business-insurance written premium growth 7% per CFO commentary) with an excellent underlying combined ratio near the high-80s (88.5 reported; 88.1 per CFO), indicating disciplined underwriting and healthy margins.
Small Business Outperformance
Small business written premium of ~$6 billion with strong growth (9% YoY) and best-in-class underlying combined ratios (87.3 per CFO; 88.9 cited), plus Kinova ranking The Hartford #1 for small business digital capabilities with a double-digit lead in all categories.
Personal Insurance Profitability and Pricing
Personal insurance achieved targeted auto profitability and strong homeowners results; underlying combined ratio 84.3 with written pricing increases of +10.4% (auto) and +11.9% (home). Agency premium grew 15% YoY.
Employee Benefits Strong Margins and Growth Opportunity
Employee benefits reported an impressive core earnings margin (8.2% for the year in CEO remarks; Q4 core earnings margin 7.6% with core earnings $138 million). Continued product and technology investments and meaningful quote activity in 2026 support growth opportunities, particularly in sub-500 lives.
Investment Income and LP Returns
Net investment income of $832 million in Q4, up $118 million (+17%) YoY; annualized portfolio yield ex-limited partnerships 4.6% and Q4 annualized limited partnership returns 11.4%, supporting higher expected investment income in 2026.
Capital Deployment and Share Repurchases
Holding company resources of $1.5 billion; expected net dividends from operating companies of ~$2.9 billion in 2026 (a ~16% increase). Repurchased ~3 million shares for $400 million in the quarter and plan to increase quarterly repurchases to $450 million beginning Q1, with $1.55 billion remaining authorization through 12/31/2026.
Catastrophe Program Enhancements
Catastrophe results were manageable (PNC cats benefit $1 million in Q4; full-year CATs 4.2%), renewed per-occurrence and aggregate reinsurance with favorable terms and added a catastrophe bond increasing peak-peril program to $1.9 billion, enhancing capital stability for property growth.
Technology and AI-First Transformation
Completed foundational modernization (data, cloud, platforms) and moved to AI-first investments across claims, underwriting, and operations. Early positive outcomes include improved medical record summarization in claims, enhanced underwriting precision, and improved contact center interactions.
Prevail Platform Expansion
Prevail agency live in 10 states with ~30 state launches planned by early 2027; Prevail is the chassis for all new personal lines business, supporting long-term growth and modernization of distribution.
Global Specialty and Middle/Large Business Growth
Global Specialty achieved written premium growth of 5% with an underlying combined ratio ~87.6 and Global Specialty margins in the low-to-mid 80s; middle & large posted 5% written premium growth with an underlying combined ratio ~89.4, reflecting solid growth and disciplined underwriting.
Negative Updates
Asbestos and Environmental Reserve Increases
Increase in asbestos reserves (noted as $122 million) driven by higher-than-expected frequency, higher settlement rates, and higher settlement values for certain accounts; environmental reserve increases (~$43 million) due to higher cleanup/monitoring costs and legal expenses, creating reserve pressure.
Disability Loss Trend and Disability Loss Ratio Increase
Group disability loss ratio increased to 70.5% (up 3.6 points YoY) with rising short- and long-term disability trends and increased incidents in short-term disability among higher average wage earners, representing a near-term underwriting headwind in employee benefits.
Moderating Property Pricing and ENS/Package Pressure
Property pricing continued to moderate and property/package components softened during the quarter (management noted property moderation and E&S/package pressure). Renewed emphasis on monitoring ENS/shared-layer pricing where rate levels are of concern.
Personal Insurance Top-Line Decline
Total personal insurance written premium declined ~2% YoY despite agency premium growth of 15%, indicating product or channel mix challenges in the direct channel.
Rising Expense Ratios from Investment in Technology and Incentives
Business Insurance expense ratio increased to 31 (up 1 point YoY) and employee benefits expense ratio rose to 27.5% (up 0.8 points YoY), reflecting higher technology costs, staffing, and incentive compensation that partially offset earned premium leverage.
Elevated Casualty Trends and Ongoing Pricing Uncertainty
Management noted elevated casualty trends that require sustained discipline; while the company is managing carefully, casualty inflation remains a key risk area and could pressure underwriting results if trends worsen.
Mixed Metrics / Reporting Variability
Some inconsistencies across remarks on renewal written pricing and underlying ratios (e.g., differing ex-workers' comp pricing figures and small variance in reported underlying combined ratios), which could create temporary investor confusion on exact quarter-to-quarter comparatives.
Company Guidance
The company guided that for 2026 it expects roughly $2.9 billion of net dividends from operating companies (about a 16% increase vs. 2025), will raise quarterly share repurchases to $450 million beginning in Q1 (after repurchasing ~3 million shares for $400 million this quarter and with $1.55 billion of repurchase authorization through 12/31/2026), and anticipates higher net investment income supported by larger invested assets and improved LP returns (Q4 NII $832 million, +17% YoY; portfolio yield ex‑LPs 4.6%; Q4 annualized LP returns 11.4%). Operationally Prevail is live in ~10 agency states with ~30 state launches planned by early 2027 and Hartford expects agency auto and home policy counts to grow in 2026; business insurance renewal pricing was reported at 4.3% all‑in (7.7% ex‑workers’ comp) with another measure at 6.1% ex‑WC, BI wrote ~7% premium growth in 2025 (small business $6 billion, +9%, underlying combined in the high‑80s), global specialty and middle & large grew ~5% with high‑80s underlying combined ratios, personal underlying combined was ~84.3 with Q4 auto pricing +10.4% and homeowners +11.9%, employee benefits showed a ~8% core margin for 2025 (Q4 margin 7.6%) with group life loss ratio 76.9 and disability 70.5, and catastrophe protection was expanded to a $1.9 billion peak per‑occurrence program plus an aggregate treaty of $200 million excess of $750 million.Hartford Insurance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are improving with steady revenue growth, higher net margins into 2024–2025, and strong/increasing ROE alongside conservative leverage. Offsetting this, profitability and cash timing can be volatile year-to-year (claims/reserve/investment impacts), with uneven free-cash-flow growth and fluctuating asset levels typical of insurers.Income Statement
Revenue shows a steady upward trajectory from 2020 to 2025 (from about $20.3B to $28.3B), with particularly strong growth in 2025. Profitability also improved over time, with net margin rising from the high-single-digits (2020–2022) to the low-to-mid teens by 2024–2025, alongside stronger operating profitability. A key watch-out is margin volatility—2024 gross profitability was unusually low versus 2025, suggesting underwriting/claims or accounting mix can swing results year to year.82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks conservative for the sector, with debt-to-equity improving over time (roughly 0.32 in 2022 down to ~0.23 in 2025) and total debt staying fairly stable while equity grows. Returns on equity are strong and improving (about 9% in 2020 to ~20% in 2025), indicating better capital efficiency. The main drawback is that assets fluctuate year-to-year (notably 2023–2025), which can reflect investment portfolio and insurance balance sheet volatility.79
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow is consistently positive and stepped up meaningfully from 2023 to 2024–2025 (about $4.2B to ~$5.9B), and free cash flow closely tracks net income (roughly 0.95–0.98 across years), supporting earnings quality. However, free cash flow growth is uneven (slightly down in 2022 and 2025), and operating cash flow relative to key obligations shows large swings across the period, pointing to periodic volatility in cash timing typical of insurers.74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 28.26B | 26.38B | 24.33B | 21.85B | 21.65B |
| Gross Profit | 13.02B | 3.97B | 3.17B | 2.05B | 2.47B |
| EBITDA | 5.36B | 4.21B | 3.60B | 2.89B | 3.58B |
| Net Income | 3.84B | 3.11B | 2.50B | 1.82B | 2.37B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 86.00B | 80.92B | 70.10B | 73.02B | 76.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.49B | 4.25B | 126.00M | 4.09B | 46.75B |
| Total Debt | 4.37B | 4.37B | 4.36B | 4.36B | 4.94B |
| Total Liabilities | 67.02B | 64.47B | 54.77B | 59.39B | 58.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.98B | 16.45B | 15.33B | 13.63B | 17.84B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.75B | 5.76B | 4.00B | 3.83B | 3.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.92B | 5.91B | 4.22B | 4.01B | 4.09B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.76B | -3.77B | -2.43B | -1.28B | -2.41B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.23B | -2.08B | -1.95B | -2.71B | -1.58B |
Hartford Insurance Technical Analysis
Positive
140.54
Price Trends
137.10
Positive
133.43
Positive
130.26
Positive
Market Momentum
1.71
Positive
56.85
Neutral
34.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HIG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 140.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 139.75, above the 50-day MA of 137.10, and above the 200-day MA of 130.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HIG.
Hartford Insurance Risk Analysis
Hartford Insurance disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hartford Insurance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hartford Insurance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $35.97B | 8.55 | 19.54% | ― | 16.68% | -28.54% | |
79 Outperform | $38.77B | 10.55 | 21.66% | 1.55% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
73 Outperform | $20.57B | 18.06 | 10.32% | 3.44% | 12.33% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $11.13B | 8.12 | 14.42% | 5.77% | -6.19% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $42.84B | 14.71 | 7.40% | 2.02% | -23.02% | 52.43% | |
45 Neutral | $11.78B | -8.52 | -182.66% | 2.15% | 7.70% | -155.12% |
* Financial Sector Average
HIG
Hartford Insurance
141.06
27.40
24.11%
AEG
Aegon
7.60
1.64
27.62%
AIG
American International Group
80.15
3.62
4.73%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
99.36
9.79
10.93%
PFG
Principal Financial
94.68
11.99
14.50%
EQH
Equitable Holdings
41.11
-11.84
-22.36%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.