Aegon (AEG) AI Stock Analysis

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Aegon

(NYSE:AEG)

Rating:70Neutral

Price Target:

$7.50

▲(2.18%Upside)

Aegon's overall stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and a solid valuation. Financial performance shows a path to recovery, though challenges remain in sustaining revenue growth. The earnings call provided a mixed outlook with strategic positives offset by operational challenges.

Aegon (AEG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$11.40B

Dividend Yield0.75%

Average Volume (3M)7.28M

Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2

Beta (1Y)0.99

Revenue Growth-5.03%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees15,582

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength72

IndustryInsurance - Diversified

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)N/A

Shares Outstanding1,652,797,500

10 Day Avg. Volume5,392,488

30 Day Avg. Volume7,277,669

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)1.32

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio10.74

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$7.50

Price Target Upside2.18% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering0

Aegon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAegon N.V. (AEG) is a multinational life insurance, pensions, and asset management company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands. Established in 1983, Aegon operates in the financial services sector, offering a wide range of insurance products, including life, health, and accident coverage, alongside investment products and retirement solutions. The company serves millions of customers worldwide through its various subsidiaries and joint ventures, providing customized financial planning and risk management services.

How the Company Makes MoneyAegon makes money primarily through the underwriting of life insurance and pension products. Revenue is generated from premiums paid by policyholders for life, health, and accident insurance, as well as from fees charged for asset management and pension fund administration. The company also earns investment income from managing customer assets, which includes returns on invested premiums and reserves. Additionally, Aegon benefits from its strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which allow it to expand its market reach and product offerings, thereby enhancing its revenue streams. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the effective management of risk, investment performance, and the ability to innovate and adapt products to meet changing customer needs.

Aegon Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 22, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 7.78%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strong capital generation and strategic initiatives like the share buyback program, balanced by challenges in mortality experience, U.K. adviser platform withdrawals, and net outflows in certain segments.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Operating Capital Generation

Operating capital generation before holding and funding expenses was €267 million, showing a 4% year-on-year increase driven by business growth.

Planned Share Buyback Program

A new share buyback program of €200 million was announced, set to commence in July, following a €150 million program, indicating a commitment to returning excess capital to shareholders.

Growth in U.S. Agent Base and Life Sales

The number of licensed agents in the World Financial Group increased by 16% to 88,000, leading to higher life sales.

Positive Trends in New Life Sales Internationally

An 11% year-over-year increase in new life sales was recorded in the International segment.

Solid Capital Position

Cash capital at holding stood at a healthy €1.6 billion, with gross financial leverage at €5.1 billion, consistent with target levels.

Negative Updates

Unfavorable Mortality Experience in the U.S.

There was an unfavorable mortality experience impacting the U.S. financial assets, particularly in Universal Life products with older age policies.

Net Outflows in Midsized Retirement Plans

Recorded net outflows of $283 million in midsized retirement plans due to lower gross deposits and elevated participant withdrawals.

Adverse Impacts in U.K. Adviser Platform

The U.K. Adviser platform faced adverse impacts due to ongoing consolidation in non-target adviser segments and elevated levels of withdrawals.

Challenges in Asset Management Joint Ventures

Net outflows occurred in asset management joint ventures, particularly as clients withdrew money from mutual funds in China.

U.S. RBC Ratio Decrease

The U.S. RBC ratio decreased by 7 percentage points to 436% due to market movements and one-time items.

Company Guidance

During the Aegon Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance on several key financial metrics. Operating capital generation before holding and funding expenses was €267 million, representing a 4% increase year-over-year, driven by business growth despite unfavorable mortality experience in U.S. financial assets. Free cash flow for the period amounted to €34 million, with cash capital at holding standing at €1.6 billion. The gross financial leverage was consistent at €5.1 billion. Aegon confirmed its target of approximately €1.2 billion in operating capital generation for 2025. Market volatility in April impacted the U.S. RBC ratio, which was expected to have a single-digit negative impact in Q2. A share buyback program of €200 million was announced, set to start in July and conclude by year-end, as part of the plan to reduce cash capital at the holding to around €1 billion by the end of 2026. The company remains on track to achieve all 2025 financial targets.

Aegon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aegon is on a recovery path with improved profitability and a stable balance sheet. However, revenue volatility and challenges in equity retention persist. Positive cash flow conversion and reduced net debt are strong indicators of recovery, but sustaining growth remains a challenge.

Income Statement

Positive

Aegon's income statement shows signs of recovery with a significant positive swing in net income from a loss in previous years to a profit in 2024. The gross profit margin remains consistent as total revenue equals gross profit, indicating no direct costs of goods sold. However, revenue has been volatile, with a sharp decline in recent years followed by a recovery. The net profit margin improved from negative to a positive 3.52% in 2024.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 in 2024, indicating reasonable leverage. However, stockholders' equity has seen a decline over the years, suggesting potential pressure on financial stability. The equity ratio is at 2.81%, highlighting a low proportion of equity financing relative to assets.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend in free cash flow, despite a decline in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, suggesting effective cash conversion. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is at 1.11, indicating room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.52B	29.54B	53.77B	46.14B	44.33B
Gross Profit	19.52B	22.88B	-15.85B	46.14B	44.33B
EBITDA	635.00M	-204.00M	1.00B	2.21B	169.00M
Net Income	688.00M	-179.00M	-570.00M	1.98B	-135.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	327.39B	301.58B	401.79B	468.25B	443.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.18B	4.07B	64.31B	108.25B	109.00B
Total Debt	5.00B	4.92B	6.67B	12.23B	11.07B
Total Liabilities	318.08B	292.03B	387.60B	441.88B	419.15B
Stockholders Equity	9.19B	7.55B	14.01B	26.18B	24.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	696.00M	748.00M	2.75B	-1.91B	-2.97B
Operating Cash Flow	762.00M	864.00M	2.85B	-1.80B	-2.85B
Investing Cash Flow	300.00M	-2.00B	616.00M	-54.00M	-139.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.75B	-3.24B	-1.92B	300.00M	-778.00M

Aegon Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price7.34

Price Trends

50DMA

6.96

Positive

100DMA

6.58

Positive

200DMA

6.37

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.07

Negative

RSI

64.29

Neutral

STOCH

86.15

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.11, above the 50-day MA of 6.96, and above the 200-day MA of 6.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AEG.

Aegon Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HIG	78 Outperform	$34.96B	12.28	18.49%	1.65%	7.55%	14.16%
PFG	76 Outperform	$18.13B	17.34	9.70%	4.54%	5.84%	-10.64%
ORI	75 Outperform	$9.05B	11.96	12.68%	8.49%	10.83%	20.74%
EQH	70 Outperform	$15.70B	14.41	56.67%	1.90%	12.41%	14.76%
AEG	70 Neutral	$11.40B	16.17	9.36%	0.75%	-5.03%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.10B	11.44	9.70%	3.58%	11.11%	-4.78%
AIG	56 Neutral	$45.82B	17.76	6.13%	2.58%	-44.30%	-33.09%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AEG

Aegon

7.26

1.31

22.02%

AIG

American International Group

79.23

5.55

7.53%

HIG

Hartford Financial

123.04

22.40

22.26%

ORI

Old Republic International

35.74

5.84

19.53%

PFG

Principal Financial

80.33

-1.09

-1.34%

EQH

Equitable Holdings

52.06

10.59

25.54%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 23, 2025