PagerDuty Inc (PD)
NYSE:PD
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PagerDuty
(NYSE:PD)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(1.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is driven mainly by improving fundamentals (strong gross margins, healthy cash generation, and a profitability inflection), supported by inexpensive valuation (low P/E). These positives are offset by weak technicals (downtrend and negative momentum) and a cautious outlook from the earnings call, with FY27 guidance pointing to flat revenue and ongoing retention pressure.
Positive Factors
High gross margins
Sustained gross margins near the high 80s are a durable structural advantage for a SaaS operator. High gross margins provide substantial operating leverage as revenue scales, funding R&D and AI investments, enabling reinvestment without eroding profitability and supporting long-term margin expansion targets.
Negative Factors
Dollar-based net retention <100%
A DBNR below 100% signals the installed base is, on net, contracting absent new net-new sales. This weakens organic growth potential, increases reliance on new customer acquisition and large deals, and means long-term revenue growth is vulnerable if upsell and retention initiatives (and pricing transitions) underperform.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins
Sustained gross margins near the high 80s are a durable structural advantage for a SaaS operator. High gross margins provide substantial operating leverage as revenue scales, funding R&D and AI investments, enabling reinvestment without eroding profitability and supporting long-term margin expansion targets.
Read all positive factors
PagerDuty (PD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$530.27M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.6
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth7.01%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,242
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.29
Shares Outstanding84,979,485
10 Day Avg. Volume2,084,883
30 Day Avg. Volume3,207,091
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)3.81
Price to Sales (P/S)1.96
P/FCF Ratio8.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.00Price Target Upside24.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$509.33M
PagerDuty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PagerDuty, Inc. operates a digital operations management platform in the United States, Japan, and internationally. Its digital operations management platform collects data digital signals from virtually any software-enabled system or device, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
PagerDuty primarily makes money through recurring subscription revenue from its cloud-delivered platform. Customers typically pay for access to PagerDuty’s offerings under term-based contracts (often annual or multi-year), with pricing generally t...
PagerDuty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of meaningful operational and financial improvements—first full-year GAAP profitability, material margin expansion, strong cash balance, accelerating AI product momentum, and notable large deal wins—against persistent growth and retention headwinds (modest revenue growth, DBNR <100, seat-based compression, and conservative FY'27 guidance). Management is focused on transitioning to consumption-based pricing, expanding AI-driven use cases, and sustaining margin expansion. Given the pronounced profitability and product/enterprise traction, balanced with clear execution and macro risks around growth and retention, the overall tone is cautiously optimistic.Positive Updates
Revenue and Quarterly Performance
Q4 revenue of $125 million, up 3% year-over-year; fiscal 2026 revenue nearly $493 million, up 5% year-over-year. Q4 outperformed guidance ranges.
Negative Updates
Sluggish Top-Line Growth
Revenue growth is modest: Q4 +3% YoY and FY +5% YoY. FY'27 guidance midpoint implies essentially flat revenue year-over-year (guidance range $488.5M to $496.5M). Trailing 12-month billings increased only ~2% YoY (~$496M).
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Quarterly Performance
Q4 revenue of $125 million, up 3% year-over-year; fiscal 2026 revenue nearly $493 million, up 5% year-over-year. Q4 outperformed guidance ranges.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PagerDuty guided Q1 FY27 revenue of $118–$120 million (midpoint essentially flat y/y) with a non‑GAAP operating margin of 19–20% and diluted EPS of $0.23–$0.25; for full FY27 it initiated revenue guidance of $488.5–$496.5 million (midpoint essentially flat y/y), non‑GAAP operating margin of 24–25%, and net income per diluted share of $1.23–$1.28 (implying roughly an 8% EPS increase), and said it expects to maintain full‑year GAAP profitability. Management also expects dollar‑based net retention (DBNR) to stabilize in Q1 and increase gradually, gross retention to begin improving in Q1, gradual ARR reacceleration through the year as customers move to consumption pricing, a non‑GAAP tax rate of 20% per quarter, and free cash flow margin to be about 2–4 percentage points lower than FY26 due to lower interest income, higher facilities CapEx and timing.PagerDuty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 492.55M | 467.50M | 430.70M | 370.79M | 281.40M |
| Gross Profit | 418.40M | 387.83M | 352.87M | 300.36M | 233.03M |
| EBITDA | 18.96M | -11.89M | -52.80M | -107.20M | -93.36M |
| Net Income | 173.85M | -42.73M | -81.76M | -129.22M | -107.45M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 990.51M | 927.27M | 925.31M | 817.87M | 806.45M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 469.84M | 570.83M | 571.19M | 476.97M | 543.36M |
| Total Debt | 413.33M | 463.65M | 461.02M | 301.52M | 307.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 719.85M | 779.22M | 746.41M | 575.79M | 539.47M |
| Stockholders Equity | 253.59M | 129.83M | 171.60M | 240.98M | 266.98M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 111.92M | 108.41M | 64.43M | 8.51M | -12.83M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 114.86M | 117.89M | 71.97M | 16.98M | -6.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.28M | -19.97M | -30.52M | -86.17M | 17.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -206.42M | -116.14M | 51.60M | -6.41M | -736.00K |
PagerDuty Technical Analysis
Negative
6.42
Price Trends
7.40
Negative
10.16
Negative
12.99
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Negative
36.06
Neutral
55.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.65, below the 50-day MA of 7.40, and below the 200-day MA of 12.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PD.
PagerDuty Risk Analysis
PagerDuty disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PagerDuty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PagerDuty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.56B | 22.71 | 31.88% | 2.66% | 18.30% | 22.19% | |
78 Outperform | $1.03B | 7.22 | 19.47% | ― | 5.80% | 12.20% | |
69 Neutral | $1.80B | -93.17 | -6.73% | ― | 19.87% | -136.93% | |
64 Neutral | $530.27M | 5.56 | 77.23% | ― | 7.01% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | $328.62M | -15.25 | -22.88% | ― | 13.09% | 32.34% | |
57 Neutral | $453.06M | -0.19 | -106.91% | ― | -7.43% | 61.36% |
* Technology Sector Average
PD
PagerDuty
6.24
-10.31
-62.30%
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PagerDuty Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
PagerDuty CFO Transition Agreement and Leadership Continuity Plan
Neutral
Feb 4, 2026
On February 1, 2026, PagerDuty, Inc. entered into a Transition Agreement with its Chief Financial Officer and principal financial officer, Owen Howard Wilson, formalizing the terms of his previously announced retirement. Under the agreement, Wilso...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
PagerDuty appoints Scott Aronson to board of directors
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
On January 15, 2026, PagerDuty’s board appointed enterprise technology veteran Scott Aronson as a Class II director, effective February 9, 2026, and expanded the board from nine to ten members while also naming him to its audit committee. Ar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.