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Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)
NASDAQ:OPEN
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Opendoor Technologies
(NASDAQ:OPEN)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-10.00% Downside)
Overall score reflects below-average fundamentals and weak price momentum: multi-year revenue contraction and ongoing losses weigh most, and technicals are bearish with the stock below key moving averages. Offsetting factors include materially improved leverage, a strong latest-year cash flow rebound, and an earnings-call narrative showing measurable operational progress toward profitability targets.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Health
A materially reduced debt load and a positive equity base give Opendoor durable financial flexibility. Lower leverage cuts interest and distress risk, increases capacity to fund acquisition ramps or absorb housing-cycle stress, and supports execution of profitability initiatives over months.
Cash Generation
A strong cash-flow rebound in 2025 demonstrates the company's ability to convert operations into cash. Reliable operating and free cash flow reduce reliance on external financing, enable reinvestment in inventory and product expansion, and bolster resilience through housing market cycles.
Operational Scale & Product Expansion
Rapid geographic rollout and growth of Cash Plus materially lower capital intensity per transaction and diversify revenue mix. Broader distribution plus scaling product adoption improves unit economics and supports sustainably higher acquisition throughput as management targets a multi-quarter acquisition ramp.
Negative Factors
Revenue Contraction
Multi-year top-line decline undermines operating leverage and long-term profitability prospects. Sustained revenue shrinkage constrains fixed-cost absorption, makes margin recovery harder, and forces reliance on volume recovery and new products to restore durable growth over the next several quarters.
Persistent Losses
Continued quarterly adjusted losses indicate unit economics have not yet translated into sustained profitability. Persistent operating deficits can deplete cash cushions if improvements stall, requiring continued execution and scale to reach management's year‑end profitability targets.
Inventory & Market Sensitivity
Large legacy inventory ties up capital and exposes margins to home-price volatility. Heavy weighting to older acquisitions compresses near-term contribution margins and increases execution risk if national home prices decline, creating a multi-month drag while inventory is cleared.
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)50.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.59
Revenue Growth-4.45%
EPS Growth18.95%
CountryUS
Employees1,470
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.26
Shares Outstanding953,788,150
10 Day Avg. Volume38,609,582
30 Day Avg. Volume50,543,206
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)4.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.02
P/FCF Ratio4.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside20.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Opendoor Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOpendoor Technologies Inc. operates a digital platform for residential real estate in the United States. The company's platform enables consumers to buy and sell a home online. It also provides title insurance and escrow services. Opendoor Technologies Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyOpendoor generates revenue primarily through its home buying and selling operations. The company makes money by purchasing homes at a discounted price, making necessary repairs or improvements, and then reselling them at a higher price. This business model, known as iBuying, allows Opendoor to take advantage of market fluctuations. Additionally, Opendoor earns revenue from transaction fees charged to sellers when they sell their homes through the platform and from buyers when they purchase properties. The company also seeks to expand its revenue through partnerships with real estate agents and mortgage lenders, enhancing its service offerings and potentially increasing its market reach.
Opendoor Technologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Homes Purchased and Sold
Tracks the number of homes Opendoor buys and sells, reflecting its market activity, growth trajectory, and ability to scale its business model in the real estate market.
Tracks the number of homes Opendoor buys and sells, reflecting its market activity, growth trajectory, and ability to scale its business model in the real estate market.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOpendoor Technologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented strong operational and product momentum: materially faster acquisitions, a notably high-performing October cohort, broad geographic expansion, and meaningful AI-driven cost and efficiency gains. However, near-term financials remain pressured—Q4 revenue declined 20% QoQ, contribution margins fell, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net losses persisted, and a large one-time noncash loss drove a reported $1.1B net loss. Management provided concrete targets (6,000 quarterly acquisitions by end‑2026 exit, adjusted net income profitability by end of 2026) and near-term guidance for improving adjusted EBITDA in Q1. Overall, the narrative is a company in structural transition with clear operational improvements that are beginning to translate into better unit economics, balanced by ongoing legacy inventory pressures and remaining quarterly losses.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Acquisition Volume Acceleration
Purchased 1,706 homes in Q4, a 46% increase quarter-over-quarter (from 1,169 in Q3). Weekly acquisition contracts reached 537 (up from 236 at last call); acquisition velocity increased ~300% since September and DTC acquisitions up ~700% comparing last week to the last week of Q3.
October 2025 Cohort Outperformance
October 2025 acquisition cohort is over 50% sold through and on track to be the most profitable October cohort in company history. Margin degradation from 10% to 50% sold-through was the lowest of any cohort in company history; October cohort cleared at ~2x the resale velocity of October 2024.
Product & Market Expansion
Opendoor Checkout expanded to 40 states (embedded mortgage preapproval, buyer protections and $4,000 Heroes Home Credit). Cash Plus (capital-light product) grew from ~19% of contracts in the last week of Q3 to ~35% of contracts last week and was described as >600% larger by volume versus the last week of Q3. Geographic availability nearly tripled in ~10 weeks to cover nearly all homeowners in the Lower 48.
AI and Automation Driving Operational Gains
Launched AI workflows (self-assessment app doubled homes assessed in January vs September; ~50% of assessed homes required no in-person visit). Automated disclosure generation and other workflows reduced manual toil and sped processes.
Material Infrastructure & Cost Efficiency Improvements
Hosting run-rate reduced from $12M to under $5M annually. Valuation model runtime reduced from 12 hours to 5.5 hours. Vision model cut processing time for 100,000 listings from 34 hours to 4. Feature pipeline and tooling changes saved at least $1M/year and SaaS replacements cut >$1M in costs; feature-building DAGs ~90% cheaper.
Progress on Operating Discipline & Targets
Fixed operating expenses were $35M in Q4 vs $37M in Q3 and $43M in Q4 2024 (down $2M QoQ, $8M YoY). Trailing 12-month operations expense held flat at 1.3% of revenue. Management reiterated target of adjusted net income profitability by end of 2026 (12-month go-forward) and Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss guide of low-to-mid $30M.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline and Near-Term Margin Pressure
Q4 revenue was $736M, a 20% quarter-over-quarter decline (though better than their prior guide of a 35% decline). GAAP gross profit fell to $57M from $66M in Q3; GAAP gross margin was 7.7% (up 50 bps QoQ). Contribution profit declined to $7M (1% contribution margin) from $20M (2.2%) in Q3.
Reported Net Loss Driven by One-Time Noncash Item
Reported Q4 net loss was $1.1B versus $90M in Q3, which included a $933M noncash loss from convertible note refinancing. Adjusted net loss excluding that item was $62M (vs $61M in Q3), showing adjusted profitability remains negative and roughly flat sequentially.
Adjusted EBITDA Loss and Short-Term Profitability Drag
Adjusted EBITDA loss was $43M in Q4 versus $33M in Q3, indicating continued negative operating profitability in the quarter (management expects sequential improvement to low-to-mid $30M loss in Q1).
Legacy Inventory Weighting Pressuring Margins
Management noted 94% of homes sold in Q4 were acquired before October, creating near-term margin headwinds while clearing older, lower-quality inventory. Inventory held at quarter-end: 2,867 homes representing $925M in net inventory.
Acquisition Pace Still Below Long-Term Targets
While acquisitions accelerated, management acknowledged weekly acquisition volumes were at or below the low end of their targets and that the acquisition ramp is intentionally weighted to the back half of the year. Target remains ~6,000 quarterly acquisitions by year-end 2026 exit.
Market & Macro Sensitivity
Management acknowledged Opendoor is not immune to a 5%–10% national home price decline; while structural tools reduce exposure (selection, velocity, Cash Plus), a material market drop would still negatively impact margins and inventory risk.
Company Guidance
Management guided to adjusted net income profitability by year‑end 2026 on a 12‑month go‑forward basis, targeting an acquisition run‑rate of ~6,000 homes per quarter by exit Q4 2026, and gave Q1 2026 outlook of roughly a 10% quarter‑over‑quarter revenue decline and an adjusted EBITDA loss in the low‑to‑mid $30 million range; they expect to exit Q1 with the highest contribution margin since Q2 2024 and to target long‑term contribution margins around 5%–7%. Operational discipline targets include holding fixed operating expenses flat (Q4 fixed OpEx $35M, down $2M QoQ and $8M YoY) and keeping trailing 12‑month operations expense steady at 1.3% of revenue, while scaling acquisitions from the Q4 purchase level of 1,706 homes (+46% QoQ), weekly contract activity (537 contracts last week vs. 236 at the prior call), faster resale velocity (October 2025 cohort >50% sold‑through, cohort resale velocity ~2x October 2024, homes >120 days down from 51% to 33% in Q4), and maintaining liquidity (unrestricted cash $962M, $133M equity in homes, 2,867 homes on hand representing ~$925M net inventory, $7.2B non‑recourse ABL capacity and $1.6B total committed borrowing).Opendoor Technologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals. Revenue has declined for three straight years and profitability remains weak with sizeable net losses, but leverage improved sharply after major debt reduction and 2025 showed strong operating/free cash flow rebound, improving financial flexibility despite volatile history.Income Statement
Revenue has contracted for three straight years (2023–2025 annual), falling from $6.95B (2023) to $4.37B (2025). Profitability remains weak: gross margin is low (~7–8% in 2023–2025) and the company continues to post operating losses and net losses, with a sharp deterioration in 2025 net margin (about -30%) versus 2024 (about -8%). The key positive is modest improvement in gross margin versus 2022, but it has not translated into sustainable earnings.28
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved materially: total debt fell to $193M in 2025 from multi-billion levels in 2021–2024, bringing debt-to-equity down to ~0.19 in 2025 (from ~3.25 in 2024). Equity is still positive ($1.01B in 2025) and assets are $2.41B. However, returns remain deeply negative (return on equity is strongly negative in 2025) due to ongoing losses, which continues to pressure the balance sheet quality despite the healthier debt load.44
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative strength recently: 2025 shows strong operating cash flow of $1.05B and free cash flow of $1.04B, improving versus 2024 (negative operating and free cash flow). Cash flow has been volatile across years (e.g., very negative in 2021, very positive in 2023), but the latest annual period demonstrates meaningful cash inflow and improving free cash flow growth, which helps offset weak accounting profitability.63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.37B | 5.15B | 6.95B | 15.57B | 8.02B |
| Gross Profit | 350.00M | 433.00M | 487.00M | 667.00M | 730.00M |
| EBITDA | -287.00M | -243.00M | 9.00M | -876.00M | -509.00M |
| Net Income | -1.30B | -392.00M | -275.00M | -1.35B | -662.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.41B | 3.13B | 3.57B | 6.61B | 9.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 962.00M | 679.00M | 1.07B | 1.28B | 2.21B |
| Total Debt | 193.00M | 2.32B | 2.53B | 5.40B | 7.11B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.40B | 2.41B | 2.60B | 5.52B | 7.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.00B | 713.00M | 967.00M | 1.09B | 2.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.04B | -620.00M | 2.31B | 693.00M | -5.83B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.05B | -595.00M | 2.34B | 730.00M | -5.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.00M | 28.00M | 44.00M | 234.00M | -476.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -499.00M | -210.00M | -2.64B | -1.75B | 7.34B |
Opendoor Technologies Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.00
Price Trends
5.90
Negative
6.76
Negative
4.76
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.42
Negative
45.53
Neutral
49.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPEN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.03, below the 50-day MA of 5.90, and above the 200-day MA of 4.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OPEN.
Opendoor Technologies Risk Analysis
Opendoor Technologies disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Opendoor Technologies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Opendoor Technologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $20.06B | 41.75 | 4.91% | 2.26% | 25.33% | -15.12% | |
60 Neutral | $222.77M | 11.35 | 2.87% | ― | -6.06% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $3.14B | 13.76 | 12.21% | ― | 6.77% | 150.72% | |
54 Neutral | $1.19B | -59.11 | -8.09% | 2.09% | 5.08% | 41.21% | |
50 Neutral | $4.42B | -10.66 | -39.33% | ― | -4.45% | 18.95% | |
49 Neutral | $38.24M | -0.42 | -104.99% | ― | -36.25% | 11.92% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
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Opendoor Technologies Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Opendoor Highlights Progress Toward Breakeven With Opendoor 2.0
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Opendoor reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting that its “Opendoor 2.0” model has begun to deliver higher acquisition growth, faster inventory turns and stronger unit economics. Homes purchased rose 46% quarter over quarter, the share of properties on the market more than 120 days fell from 51% to 33%, and fixed operating expenses declined to $35 million in Q4 2025 from $43 million a year earlier, even as revenue and volumes remained below 2024 levels.
Management pointed to the October 2025 acquisition cohort as the best-performing October in company history by contribution margin, with homes selling at more than twice the pace of the October 2024 cohort and over half already sold or under resale contract. Despite a net loss of $1.1 billion for the quarter and $1.3 billion for 2025, Opendoor stressed structural operational improvements, reduced capital intensity through its Cash Plus offering, and stable operating leverage as key steps toward its goal of reaching breakeven adjusted net income by the end of 2026 on a rolling 12-month basis.
The most recent analyst rating on (OPEN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Opendoor Technologies stock, see the OPEN Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Opendoor Updates CEO Social Media Channels for Disclosures
Neutral
Jan 26, 2026
Opendoor Technologies announced on September 17, 2025, that it uses a range of digital channels—including its website, press releases, regulatory filings, blogs, community hub and corporate and CEO social media accounts—as primary outlets for sharing material information and meeting its disclosure obligations under U.S. securities regulations. The company emphasized that its CEO Kaz Nejatian’s previous X handle is no longer in use for such disclosures, and that investors should now monitor his new @Nejatian handle alongside @Opendoor and other official channels, underscoring the growing role of social platforms in corporate communications and the need for stakeholders to track these outlets to stay informed about potentially market-moving updates.
The most recent analyst rating on (OPEN) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Opendoor Technologies stock, see the OPEN Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Opendoor Technologies Appoints New President and CFO
Positive
Dec 15, 2025
On December 15, 2025, Opendoor Technologies announced the appointment of Lucas Matheson as President, effective December 22, 2025, and Christy Schwartz as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 1, 2026. Matheson, previously CEO of Coinbase Canada, will oversee corporate development and strategic initiatives, including blockchain exploration, while Schwartz, who served as interim CFO, was chosen for her deep understanding of the company. These leadership changes aim to accelerate Opendoor’s growth and innovation in the real estate sector.
The most recent analyst rating on (OPEN) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Opendoor Technologies stock, see the OPEN Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Opendoor Technologies Issues Warrants as Special Dividend
Positive
Nov 21, 2025
Opendoor Technologies Inc. announced the distribution of warrants to its shareholders and certain convertible noteholders as a special dividend on November 21, 2025. This move, described by CEO Kaz Nejatian as a demonstration of confidence in the company’s long-term value, aims to realign shareholder interests. The warrants, which are exercisable for cash, are set to trade on Nasdaq under the tickers OPENW, OPENL, and OPENZ, with expiration dates set for November 20, 2026, unless early expiration conditions are met. This distribution is part of Opendoor’s strategy to strengthen its relationship with shareholders, reflecting a structural commitment to their interests.
The most recent analyst rating on (OPEN) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Opendoor Technologies stock, see the OPEN Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.