Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.45B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: -38.95%
• EPS Growth: 51.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -2.13
• Shares Outstanding: 389,079,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,121,254
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,204,398
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.32
• 1Y Price Target: $46.00
• Price Target Upside: 82.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(11.38% Upside)

Moderna's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow. While there are positive developments in cost reduction and strategic priorities, declining revenues and valuation concerns weigh heavily. Technical analysis provides mixed signals, adding to the uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

Aggressive cost cuts across the organization are promising signs that MRNA is taking steps to optimize its cost structure.

Financial Performance

MRNA reported a 2Q topline beat driven by Spikevax, with product revenue of $114mn, which was above consensus estimates.

Vaccine Approvals

The FDA announced approval of multiple COVID-19 vaccines that have updated monovalent formulations to target the LP.8.1 variant, including both of Moderna’s COVID-19 mRNA vaccines.

Negative Factors

Market Challenges

Analyst maintains an Underperform rating due to persistent key challenges and uncertainties over the long-term growth outlook.

Revenue Guidance

MRNA lowered the upper-end of FY25 product revenue guidance to $1.5bn-$2.2bn from $1.5bn-$2.5bn prior due to a timing shift of deliveries of contracted revenue for the UK into 1Q26.

Workforce Reduction

The announcement of a workforce reduction of about 10% indicates a significant restructuring effort.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that specializes in the development of messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Founded in 2010, Moderna focuses on creating innovative medicines for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, and rare diseases, with its most notable product being the mRNA-1273 vaccine for COVID-19. The company operates primarily in the biotechnology sector and is known for its cutting-edge technology platform that enables rapid development and manufacturing of mRNA-based solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA vaccines, with significant income stemming from its COVID-19 vaccine, which has been distributed globally under various agreements with governments and organizations. The company has established substantial partnerships with entities such as the U.S. government and international health organizations, which contribute to its revenue through advanced purchase agreements and supply contracts. Additionally, Moderna is expanding its pipeline to include vaccines and therapies for other diseases, which could diversify its revenue streams in the future. The company also engages in collaborations with pharmaceutical firms and research institutions, further enhancing its financial growth through licensing agreements and shared development costs.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability with negative cash flows and revenue declines. Despite a strong equity base and low leverage, the company must focus on improving operational efficiency and revenue growth.

Income Statement

Moderna's financial performance shows significant challenges in recent periods. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 52.2%, indicating reasonable cost control. However, the net profit margin is negative due to substantial net losses, suggesting profitability issues. Revenue has decreased significantly from previous periods, highlighting revenue growth challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains relatively stable with a strong equity position. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at approximately 0.07, indicating low leverage. However, return on equity is negative due to net losses. The equity ratio is strong at approximately 78.3%, reflecting a solid asset base funded by equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals substantial challenges. Operating cash flow is negative, indicating cash burn from operations. The free cash flow is also negative, reflecting significant capital outlays relative to cash generated. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating declining cash generation over time.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.06B	3.20B	6.85B	18.88B	17.74B	803.39M
Gross Profit	1.60B	1.74B	2.15B	13.46B	15.12B	764.21M
EBITDA	-2.72B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-703.38M
Net Income	-2.90B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.01B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.13B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
Total Debt	741.00M	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M	237.00M
Total Liabilities	2.61B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
Stockholders Equity	9.40B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.50B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
Operating Cash Flow	-2.70B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
Investing Cash Flow	1.48B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	21.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 25.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.82, below the 50-day MA of 28.84, and below the 200-day MA of 31.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GMAB	82 Outperform	$16.85B	13.64	26.08%	―	23.25%	64.46%
INCY	80 Outperform	$16.68B	19.70	24.30%	―	18.87%	1088.27%
UTHR	77 Outperform	$17.21B	15.64	19.30%	―	17.62%	19.89%
BMRN	76 Outperform	$11.09B	17.11	11.62%	―	17.38%	153.58%
EXEL	75 Outperform	$10.20B	18.17	29.00%	―	10.73%	81.66%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.95B	-0.40	-41.67%	2.21%	22.29%	-1.85%
MRNA	48 Neutral	$9.45B	―	-27.50%	―	-38.95%	51.07%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna Projects Revenue Growth and Strategic Cost Reduction

Moderna announced its 2024 product sales reached $3.0 to 3.1 billion, driven by its COVID-19 vaccine business, and reported a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion. Looking ahead, the company plans to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025 and anticipates further cost reductions in 2026. The company expects revenues of $1.5 to 2.5 billion in 2025 and aims for several product approvals and data readouts across its prioritized programs, including vaccines for respiratory viruses and other diseases, with potential significant financial and industry impact.