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Moderna
(NASDAQ:MRNA)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$54.00
▼(-0.13% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (deep losses and ongoing cash burn despite a solid balance sheet) and bearish-to-soft technical signals (below key short-term moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call modestly improves the outlook via cost discipline and regulatory/commercial progress, but litigation-related cash impact and clinical setbacks keep the risk profile elevated. Valuation provides limited support given the negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet and liquidity
Material cash reserves and an undrawn credit line give Moderna durable financing flexibility to fund near-term launches and pipeline programs. Low-to-moderate leverage noted in the balance sheet supports solvency while management executes commercial and clinical milestones over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation and negative free cash flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow signals Moderna cannot fully self-fund development and commercial expansion. Even with improvement, ongoing cash burn constrains strategic optionality, increases reliance on cash reserves or financing, and pressures durability of investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet and liquidity
Material cash reserves and an undrawn credit line give Moderna durable financing flexibility to fund near-term launches and pipeline programs. Low-to-moderate leverage noted in the balance sheet supports solvency while management executes commercial and clinical milestones over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Moderna Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, revealing which segments are driving growth and how diversified Moderna's income streams are, indicating stability and strategic focus.
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, revealing which segments are driving growth and how diversified Moderna's income streams are, indicating stability and strategic focus.
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The Fly
The FlyModerna (MRNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.75B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth-27.62%
EPS Growth-6.22%
CountryUS
Employees4,700
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.98
Shares Outstanding396,786,250
10 Day Avg. Volume5,012,376
30 Day Avg. Volume8,280,846
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)5.90
P/FCF Ratio-5.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.92Price Target Upside-9.52% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)-8.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.11B
Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medi...
How the Company Makes Money
Moderna makes money primarily by selling mRNA-based vaccines and recognizing revenue associated with those sales. Its key revenue stream has been product revenue from Spikevax (its COVID-19 vaccine), generated through supply agreements and commerc...
Moderna Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful commercial and clinical progress — a Q2 revenue beat, multiple regulatory and market milestones (including a VRBPAC recommendation for the flu candidate and expanded approvals for respiratory products), clear cost and efficiency improvements, and advancing oncology/rare disease programs with important data and new dosing initiatives. These positives were tempered by a norovirus Phase III interim that did not meet early success criteria and slower case accrual, a significant litigation settlement payment (~$950M) that reduced cash, a substantial net loss and continued cash burn, and timing uncertainty for several event‑driven readouts. On balance, the highlights (regulatory momentum, product approvals/market uptake, cost discipline and pipeline advances) modestly outweigh the lowlights, supporting a constructive but cautious outlook.Positive Updates
Q2 Revenue Beat and Full-Year Growth Outlook
Revenue of $145 million in Q2 (reported as $0.1B) beat the guidance range and was up 2% year‑over‑year; reaffirmed expectation for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 with an expected ~50/50 U.S./international split for the full year.
Negative Updates
Norovirus Phase III Interim Missed Early Success Criteria
mRNA‑1403 Phase III did not meet statistical criteria for early success at interim analysis; study remains blinded and the company is preparing to enroll an additional cohort and expects to run another seasonal accrual period because epidemiology and strain mix slowed case accrual.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Revenue Beat and Full-Year Growth Outlook
Revenue of $145 million in Q2 (reported as $0.1B) beat the guidance range and was up 2% year‑over‑year; reaffirmed expectation for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 with an expected ~50/50 U.S./international split for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Moderna reiterated 2026 revenue growth of up to 10% (Q2 revenue was $145M, H1 revenue $0.5B, Q2 up 2% YoY) and expects a roughly 50/50 U.S./international split for the full year (Q2 was 60% U.S./40% international; H1 was 31% U.S./69% international), with third-quarter revenue representing ~55% of second‑half revenue; the company lowered its cost assumptions — cost of sales guidance down $0.1B to $1.7B (which includes a $0.9B litigation charge), R&D down $0.1B to $2.9B, and SG&A ~ $1.0B — and, excluding the $0.9B litigation charge, now expects total GAAP operating expenses of $4.7B and cash costs of $4.0B (each a $0.2B improvement versus prior guidance); Q2 results showed cost of sales $93M (‑22% YoY), R&D $651M (‑7% YoY), SG&A $216M (‑6% YoY), a net loss of $782M (loss per share $1.97 vs $2.13 prior year), cash and investments of $6.9B (down from $7.5B at Q1 end; note a $950M litigation payment made in July), projected year‑end cash of $4.7–5.2B, capex of $0.2–0.3B, taxes negligible, and guidance assumes potential COVID vaccination declines and no 2026 revenue from mFLUSIVA or mCOMBRIAX (cash guidance excludes use of the remaining $0.9B undrawn credit facility).Moderna Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.23B | 1.94B | 3.20B | 6.85B | 18.88B | 17.74B |
| Gross Profit | -280.00M | 1.08B | 1.74B | 2.15B | 13.46B | 15.12B |
| EBITDA | -2.83B | -2.55B | -3.39B | -3.28B | 9.95B | 13.54B |
| Net Income | -3.15B | -2.82B | -3.56B | -4.71B | 8.36B | 12.20B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.96B | 12.34B | 14.14B | 18.43B | 25.86B | 24.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.14B | 5.80B | 7.03B | 8.60B | 9.90B | 10.73B |
| Total Debt | 1.29B | 1.92B | 747.00M | 1.24B | 1.20B | 916.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.20B | 3.69B | 3.24B | 4.57B | 6.74B | 10.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.76B | 8.65B | 10.90B | 13.85B | 19.12B | 14.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.22B | -2.06B | -4.05B | -3.83B | 4.58B | 13.34B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.05B | -1.87B | -3.00B | -3.12B | 4.98B | 13.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 905.00M | 1.95B | 1.95B | 4.21B | -5.18B | -8.52B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 590.00M | 593.00M | 56.00M | -1.38B | -3.45B | -873.00M |
Moderna Technical Analysis
Positive
54.07
Price Trends
58.93
Negative
54.78
Positive
45.29
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.99
Positive
43.83
Neutral
50.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 54.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.39, below the 50-day MA of 58.93, and above the 200-day MA of 45.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.
Moderna Risk Analysis
Moderna disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moderna reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moderna Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $8.79B | -75.83 | 12.03% | ― | -64.36% | -302.09% | |
63 Neutral | $39.87B | -26.38 | -83.22% | ― | ― | -76.93% | |
56 Neutral | $6.81B | -31.71 | -159.87% | ― | 58.67% | -11.45% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $8.60B | -14.96 | -110.84% | ― | -7.49% | -98.12% | |
47 Neutral | $21.75B | -6.87 | -39.20% | ― | -27.62% | -6.22% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MRNA
Moderna
56.26
29.65
111.41%
IONS
Ionis Pharmaceuticals
54.19
13.14
32.01%
PTGX
Protagonist Therapeutics
137.32
86.36
169.47%
RYTM
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals
110.71
18.23
19.71%
RVMD
Revolution Medicines
197.30
162.35
464.52%
Moderna Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Moderna Strengthens Board with New Financial Director
Positive
Jul 8, 2026
On July 6, 2026, Moderna’s Board of Directors appointed veteran financial executive Michael McDonnell as a Class II director, effective July 8, 2026, with his term running until the 2029 annual meeting. McDonnell, who has over three decades ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Moderna Updates Bylaws and Confirms Governance Leadership
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Moderna’s board amended the company’s by-laws to designate U.S. federal district courts as the exclusive forum for Securities Act litigation, aligning its governance framework with recent changes to Delaware corporate l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.