Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.59B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: -56.00%
• EPS Growth: -38.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 390,679,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,486,729
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,184,425
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.99
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.15
• 1Y Price Target: $39.88
• Price Target Upside: 51.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▼(-7.23% Downside)

Moderna's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability. Technical analysis indicates weak momentum, and valuation concerns persist with a negative P/E ratio. However, strategic cost reductions and partnerships provide some optimism for future growth.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

These partnerships enhance Moderna's global footprint and ensure stable revenue streams through long-term agreements, supporting sustainable growth.

Cost Reduction

Significant cost reductions improve operational efficiency and profitability, positioning Moderna to better manage financial challenges and invest in growth.

Pipeline Advancements

Advancements in the pipeline, particularly in oncology, diversify Moderna's product offerings and potential revenue sources, enhancing long-term growth prospects.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A significant decline in revenue, primarily due to lower COVID vaccine demand, challenges Moderna's financial stability and growth trajectory.

Net Loss

The net loss indicates ongoing financial struggles, impacting cash flow and limiting resources for investment in new product development.

Discontinued Vaccine Program

Discontinuation of the CMV vaccine program reduces potential future revenue streams and highlights challenges in product development.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that specializes in the development of messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Founded in 2010, Moderna focuses on creating innovative medicines for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, and rare diseases, with its most notable product being the mRNA-1273 vaccine for COVID-19. The company operates primarily in the biotechnology sector and is known for its cutting-edge technology platform that enables rapid development and manufacturing of mRNA-based solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA vaccines, with significant income stemming from its COVID-19 vaccine, which has been distributed globally under various agreements with governments and organizations. The company has established substantial partnerships with entities such as the U.S. government and international health organizations, which contribute to its revenue through advanced purchase agreements and supply contracts. Additionally, Moderna is expanding its pipeline to include vaccines and therapies for other diseases, which could diversify its revenue streams in the future. The company also engages in collaborations with pharmaceutical firms and research institutions, further enhancing its financial growth through licensing agreements and shared development costs.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability, as evidenced by negative margins and cash flows. The balance sheet shows low leverage, but negative return on equity and cash flow issues highlight operational and financial risks.

Income Statement

Moderna's income statement shows significant challenges with declining revenues and negative profit margins. The TTM data indicates a substantial revenue decline of 27.4% and a negative net profit margin of -140.3%. The company is experiencing negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Despite past high growth rates, recent trends show a downturn, impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -31.4%, reflecting poor profitability. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure, but the declining equity value due to losses is a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a free cash flow growth rate of -24.2% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some efficiency in managing cash relative to net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.22B	3.20B	6.85B	18.88B	17.74B	803.39M
Gross Profit	265.00M	1.74B	2.15B	13.46B	15.12B	764.21M
EBITDA	-2.94B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-703.38M
Net Income	-3.12B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.13B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.50B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
Total Debt	734.00M	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M	237.00M
Total Liabilities	2.81B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
Stockholders Equity	9.33B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.66B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
Operating Cash Flow	-1.98B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
Investing Cash Flow	1.46B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	9.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 26.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.99, above the 50-day MA of 25.86, and below the 200-day MA of 28.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INCY	81 Outperform	$20.81B	17.78	30.39%	―	18.09%	3563.21%
UTHR	79 Outperform	$19.54B	17.40	20.04%	―	13.50%	17.16%
EXEL	76 Outperform	$10.94B	17.18	30.56%	―	9.93%	54.33%
BMRN	73 Outperform	$9.89B	19.73	9.07%	―	12.31%	60.21%
GMAB	73 Outperform	$17.60B	12.24	28.20%	―	24.98%	127.06%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
MRNA	50 Neutral	$9.59B	―	-29.32%	―	-56.00%	-38.95%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, is a leader in the development of mRNA-based medicines, focusing on vaccines and therapeutics for infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases.

Moderna’s Earnings Call: Balancing Achievements and Challenges

During Moderna’s recent earnings call, the sentiment was a mix of optimism and caution. The company celebrated significant achievements in cost reduction, strategic partnerships, and product approvals. However, these positives were overshadowed by challenges such as a notable revenue decline, a net loss for the quarter, and the discontinuation of the CMV vaccine program.

Vertex and Moderna’s VX-522 Study: A Potential Breakthrough in Cystic Fibrosis Treatment

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc., in collaboration with Moderna, is conducting a Phase 1/2 study titled ‘A Phase 1/2 Dose Escalation Study Evaluating the Safety, and Tolerability and Efficacy of VX-522 in Subjects 18 Years of Age and Older With Cystic Fibrosis and a CFTR Genotype Not Responsive to CFTR Modulator Therapy.’ The study aims to assess the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of VX-522 in adults with cystic fibrosis who do not respond to existing CFTR modulator therapies, marking a significant step in addressing unmet medical needs in this population.