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Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQ:MRNA
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Moderna
(NASDAQ:MRNA)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$23.50
▼( -10.51% Downside)
Positive Factors
Cost Management
Extended cost-cutting plans through 2027 strengthen confidence in Moderna’s ability to manage through the post-COVID normalization phase.
Regulatory Outlook
Recent regulatory outlook relief has eased worst-case fears for COVID vaccines.
Negative Factors
Commercial Viability
There are concerns about the long-term commercial viability of the combo vaccine program.
Vaccine Revenue
Vaccine franchise revenue came approximately 15% below expectations, with COVID and RSV vaccine revenues significantly underperforming consensus estimates.
Moderna (MRNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.16B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)10.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth-38.25%
EPS Growth44.29%
CountryUS
Employees5,800
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength41
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.52
Shares Outstanding386,741,820
10 Day Avg. Volume15,304,136
30 Day Avg. Volume10,932,443
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.46
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-2.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.47Price Target Upside80.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering19
Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionModerna, Inc. is a biotechnology company specializing in the development and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) technology-based vaccines and therapeutics. Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Moderna is at the forefront of mRNA research and has a diverse portfolio that includes vaccines for infectious diseases, cancer immunotherapies, and rare diseases. The company's most notable product is its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which has been pivotal in global vaccination efforts.
How the Company Makes MoneyModerna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA-based vaccines, particularly its COVID-19 vaccine, which has been a major source of income since its emergency use authorization and subsequent approvals worldwide. The company also earns revenues through collaborations and licensing agreements with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, enabling it to advance its research and development initiatives. Additionally, Moderna receives funding from governmental and non-governmental organizations for the development of vaccines and therapeutics. These revenue streams are supplemented by potential future earnings from newly developed products as they receive regulatory approval and enter the market.
Moderna Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Product Sales by Geography
Breaks down sales across different regions, revealing where Moderna is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local market dynamics and healthcare policies.
Breaks down sales across different regions, revealing where Moderna is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local market dynamics and healthcare policies.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataModerna Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Moderna faces significant challenges with declining revenue and profitability. The income statement shows operational losses and a sharp drop in revenue to $3.16 billion. Although there is a strong equity base, negative cash flow trends highlight financial instability risks.Income Statement
Moderna's income statement shows a significant decline in revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, with revenue dropping from $19.26 billion to $3.16 billion. Both EBIT and net income have turned negative, indicating substantial operational losses. The gross profit margin has also decreased sharply. These trends suggest substantial challenges in maintaining profitability and revenue growth.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position with stockholders' equity consistently making up a large portion of total assets. However, the recent increase in total liabilities and the decrease in total assets since 2021 suggest a weakening financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low, and the company has maintained a positive net cash position, reducing immediate financial risk.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Moderna's cash flow statement shows a concerning trend with negative operating cash flow and declining free cash flow. The free cash flow has deteriorated from a strong positive in 2022 to a negative in TTM 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio reflect operational inefficiencies and cash management challenges.40
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 3.16B | 3.24B | 6.85B | 19.26B | 17.74B | 274.49M | Gross Profit |
| 1.66B | 1.77B | 2.15B | 13.85B | 15.12B | 266.56M | EBIT |
| -3.73B | -3.94B | -4.24B | 9.42B | 13.30B | -763.14M | EBITDA |
| -3.19B | -3.39B | -3.28B | 9.77B | 13.53B | -732.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -3.36B | -3.56B | -4.71B | 8.36B | 12.20B | -747.06M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 1.62B | 7.03B | 8.60B | 9.90B | 10.73B | 4.61B | Total Assets |
| 12.70B | 14.14B | 18.43B | 25.86B | 24.67B | 7.34B | Total Debt |
| 745.00M | 747.00M | 1.24B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Net Debt |
| -878.00M | -1.18B | -1.66B | -3.21B | -6.85B | -2.62B | Total Liabilities |
| 2.64B | 3.24B | 4.57B | 6.74B | 10.52B | 4.78B | Stockholders Equity |
| 10.07B | 10.90B | 13.85B | 19.12B | 14.14B | 2.56B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -4.02B | -4.05B | -3.83B | 4.58B | 13.34B | 1.96B | Operating Cash Flow |
| -3.05B | -3.00B | -3.12B | 4.98B | 13.62B | 2.03B | Investing Cash Flow |
| 2.56B | 1.95B | 4.21B | -5.18B | -8.52B | -1.67B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 46.00M | 56.00M | -1.38B | -3.45B | -873.00M | 2.03B |
Moderna Technical Analysis
Neutral
26.26
Price Trends
27.63
Negative
31.99
Negative
45.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.35
Negative
49.61
Neutral
43.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.01, below the 50-day MA of 27.63, and below the 200-day MA of 45.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MRNA.
Moderna Risk Analysis
Moderna disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moderna reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Inadequate funding for the FDA, CDC and other government agencies, including from government shut downs, or other disruptions to these agencies' operations, could hinder their ability to hire and retain key leadership and other personnel, prevent new products and services from being developed or commercialized in a timely manner or otherwise prevent those agencies from performing normal business functions on which the operation of our business may rely. Q4, 2024
2.
We may be unsuccessful in executing our cost efficiency and portfolio prioritization efforts. Q4, 2024
3.
We have experienced commercial challenges and are likely to experience additional challenges in the future. Q4, 2024
Moderna Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $12.73B | 11.68 | 22.69% | ― | 25.11% | 46.46% | |
80 Outperform | $11.56B | 19.23 | 30.22% | ― | 24.49% | 244.87% | |
79 Outperform | $13.88B | 12.28 | 19.94% | ― | 19.85% | 21.16% | |
71 Outperform | $11.04B | 21.35 | 9.64% | ― | 17.99% | 152.10% | |
71 Outperform | $12.44B | 198.78 | 0.47% | ― | 17.13% | -88.78% | |
53 Neutral | $5.14B | 3.03 | -44.09% | 2.83% | 16.75% | -0.06% | |
43 Neutral | $10.16B | ― | -29.34% | ― | -38.25% | 44.29% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MRNA
Moderna
26.26
-126.94
-82.86%
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
57.55
-16.88
-22.68%
EXEL
Exelixis
42.39
22.05
108.41%
INCY
Incyte
64.24
6.99
12.21%
UTHR
United Therapeutics
307.65
38.50
14.30%
GMAB
Genmab
20.81
-7.20
-25.71%
Moderna Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -7.99%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Moderna has made significant progress in cost reduction and market expansion, particularly in the oncology and international vaccine markets. However, the company still faces challenges with declining revenues, significant net losses, and extended regulatory review timelines for key products.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Cost Reduction Achievements
Moderna achieved a 19% reduction in combined R&D, SG&A, and cost of sales compared to Q1 2024. This marks the third consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year declines in these expenses.
Expansion of Commercial Markets
Moderna expanded its commercial reach by receiving approvals for its mRESVIA vaccine in Australia, Taiwan, the UK, and Switzerland, in addition to previous approvals in the US, EU, and Canada.
Oncology Portfolio Expansion
Moderna announced the expansion of its oncology portfolio with the addition of the Checkpoint medicine program, showing early but encouraging data.
Strong Cash Position
Moderna ended Q1 2025 with $8.4 billion in cash and investments, maintaining a strong financial position despite a net loss for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue Decline
Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $108 million, reflecting a 35% decrease year-over-year, attributed to the seasonal nature of the respiratory vaccines and lower vaccination rates.
Net Loss for the Quarter
Moderna reported a net loss of $1 billion for Q1 2025, an improvement from a $1.2 billion loss in Q1 2024, but still a significant negative financial result.
COVID Vaccine Sales Decline
Net product sales were $86 million, primarily driven by COVID vaccine sales. This was a decline from the previous year due to the transition of COVID into routine seasonal vaccination patterns.
Extended Review Timeline for Flu COVID Combination Vaccine
The FDA now requires flu vaccine efficacy data to support the application for the flu COVID combination vaccine, extending the review timeline into 2026.
Company Guidance
During the Moderna first quarter 2025 conference call, the company provided detailed guidance on various financial and operational metrics. For Q1 2025, Moderna reported revenues of $0.1 billion with a net loss of $1 billion, aligning with their expectations due to the seasonal nature of their respiratory vaccine business. They ended the quarter with $8.4 billion in cash and investments. Moderna achieved a 19% reduction in combined cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A expenses compared to Q1 2024. Net product sales were $86 million, mainly from COVID vaccine sales, with the U.S. contributing about one-third of these sales. The company expects total revenue for 2025 to range between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, with projected cost of sales at approximately $1.2 billion. R&D expenses are anticipated to be $4.1 billion for the year, while SG&A expenses are expected to be around $1.1 billion. Looking ahead, Moderna plans to drive $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion in cost reductions by 2027, aiming for a cash cost of $4.2 billion that year. The company continues to focus on expanding its product portfolio, with advancements in its oncology pipeline and ongoing late-stage trials for several vaccines.Moderna Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Moderna Projects Revenue Growth and Strategic Cost Reduction
Positive
Jan 13, 2025
Moderna announced its 2024 product sales reached $3.0 to 3.1 billion, driven by its COVID-19 vaccine business, and reported a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion. Looking ahead, the company plans to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025 and anticipates further cost reductions in 2026. The company expects revenues of $1.5 to 2.5 billion in 2025 and aims for several product approvals and data readouts across its prioritized programs, including vaccines for respiratory viruses and other diseases, with potential significant financial and industry impact.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.