Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.79B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 10.55M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: -38.25%
• EPS Growth: 44.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -2.52
• Shares Outstanding: 386,741,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,219,831
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,553,158
• PEG Ratio: -0.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.50
• 1Y Price Target: $48.33
• Price Target Upside: 58.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $31.00 ▲(1.67%Upside)

Moderna's overall stock score is driven primarily by its financial challenges, including declining revenues and negative cash flow. Positive technical indicators and strategic cost reductions provide some support, but valuation concerns due to negative earnings weigh heavily.

Positive Factors

Market Expansion

Moderna's mRESVIA received an FDA label expansion approval to treat adults 18-59 at high-risk of severe disease, broadening the addressable market.

Regulatory Opportunities

Regulatory filings for the flu and flu+COVID combination vaccine (mRNA-1083) will be submitted shortly, highlighting a significant commercial opportunity.

Vaccine Efficacy

MRNA-1010 demonstrated superior immunogenicity across all flu strains compared to a different active flu vaccine comparator.

Negative Factors

Commercial Viability

There is skepticism about the commercial viability of the combo vaccine program, particularly in light of the revised FDA COVID vaccine framework.

Market Skepticism

Positioning in the stock skews short, indicating some market skepticism.

Regulatory Challenges

A more onerous vaccine regulatory environment is weighing not just on approvability and recommended use of Moderna's vaccines, but also on operating expenses.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna makes money primarily through the sale of its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which became a major source of revenue following its emergency use authorization and subsequent full approval in numerous countries worldwide. The company enters into supply agreements with governments and international organizations to distribute its vaccines. Additionally, Moderna is exploring and developing other therapeutic and vaccine candidates, aiming to expand its product portfolio. Revenue also comes from collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical and biotech companies, research grants, and government contracts that support the development of its pipeline products. These partnerships often involve significant upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future product sales, contributing to the company's earnings.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna faces significant financial challenges, including a steep decline in revenue, operational losses, and negative cash flows. Despite a strong equity base and low leverage, the company needs strategic adjustments to restore growth and profitability.

Income Statement

Moderna's income statement shows a significant decline in revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, with revenue dropping from $19.26 billion to $3.16 billion. Both EBIT and net income have turned negative, indicating substantial operational losses. The gross profit margin has also decreased sharply. These trends suggest substantial challenges in maintaining profitability and revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position with stockholders' equity consistently making up a large portion of total assets. However, the recent increase in total liabilities and the decrease in total assets since 2021 suggest a weakening financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low, and the company has maintained a positive net cash position, reducing immediate financial risk.

Cash Flow

Moderna's cash flow statement shows a concerning trend with negative operating cash flow and declining free cash flow. The free cash flow has deteriorated from a strong positive in 2022 to a negative in TTM 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio reflect operational inefficiencies and cash management challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.16B	3.24B	6.85B	19.26B	17.74B	274.49M
Gross Profit	1.66B	1.77B	2.15B	13.85B	15.12B	266.56M
EBITDA	-3.19B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-732.00M
Net Income	-3.36B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.70B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.62B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
Total Debt	745.00M	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M	237.00M
Total Liabilities	2.64B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
Stockholders Equity	10.07B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-4.02B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
Operating Cash Flow	-3.05B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
Investing Cash Flow	2.56B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	46.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.25, above the 50-day MA of 26.70, and below the 200-day MA of 38.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXEL	84 Outperform	$12.59B	20.94	30.22%	―	24.49%	244.87%
GMAB	78 Outperform	$12.55B	11.40	22.69%	―	25.11%	46.46%
UTHR	76 Outperform	$13.28B	11.75	19.94%	―	19.85%	21.16%
INCY	74 Outperform	$13.25B	211.79	0.47%	―	17.13%	-88.78%
BMRN	71 Outperform	$11.03B	21.34	9.64%	―	17.99%	152.10%
MRNA	56 Neutral	$11.79B	―	-29.34%	―	-38.25%	44.29%
Sector *	55 Neutral	€4.83B	18.24	-49.50%	1.92%	13.92%	-4.82%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna Projects Revenue Growth and Strategic Cost Reduction

Moderna announced its 2024 product sales reached $3.0 to 3.1 billion, driven by its COVID-19 vaccine business, and reported a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion. Looking ahead, the company plans to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025 and anticipates further cost reductions in 2026. The company expects revenues of $1.5 to 2.5 billion in 2025 and aims for several product approvals and data readouts across its prioritized programs, including vaccines for respiratory viruses and other diseases, with potential significant financial and industry impact.