Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.68B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.27M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -38.25%
• EPS Growth: 44.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -8.72
• Shares Outstanding: 386,741,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,404,219
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,267,682
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $46.83
• Price Target Upside: 69.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

Moderna faces substantial challenges with declining revenues, operational losses, and negative cash flows, impacting its financial stability. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the valuation is weak with a negative P/E ratio. While cost reduction and market expansion efforts offer some optimism, the overall outlook remains cautious.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

Moderna is accelerating its cost-saving programme with lowered cost guidance and additional savings targets.

Oncology Pipeline

Shifting focus increasingly towards oncology with additional studies for intismeran and Checkpoint AIM-T highlights the increasing need for future non-respiratory revenues.

Revenue Guidance

The company reiterated its 2025 revenue guidance of $1.5-2.5B, which it still expects to be heavily weighted to the second half due to the seasonality of the respiratory vaccine business.

Negative Factors

Product Sales

First-quarter product sales were $86 million, which fell short of the consensus estimate at $106 million.

Regulatory Risk

Moderna faces regulatory risk with three late-stage respiratory vaccine submissions under review by the FDA.

Vaccine Market Challenges

In general, the respiratory vaccine franchise is facing competitive and commercial headwinds.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company specializing in the development and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) technology-based vaccines and therapeutics. Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Moderna is at the forefront of mRNA research and has a diverse portfolio that includes vaccines for infectious diseases, cancer immunotherapies, and rare diseases. The company's most notable product is its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which has been pivotal in global vaccination efforts.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA-based vaccines, particularly its COVID-19 vaccine, which has been a major source of income since its emergency use authorization and subsequent approvals worldwide. The company also earns revenues through collaborations and licensing agreements with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, enabling it to advance its research and development initiatives. Additionally, Moderna receives funding from governmental and non-governmental organizations for the development of vaccines and therapeutics. These revenue streams are supplemented by potential future earnings from newly developed products as they receive regulatory approval and enter the market.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna's financial performance is challenged by a significant decline in revenue, negative operating cash flow, and profitability issues. Despite a strong equity base, the company faces operational losses and negative cash flows, indicating financial instability.

Income Statement

Moderna's income statement shows a significant decline in revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, with revenue dropping from $19.26 billion to $3.16 billion. Both EBIT and net income have turned negative, indicating substantial operational losses. The gross profit margin has also decreased sharply. These trends suggest substantial challenges in maintaining profitability and revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position with stockholders' equity consistently making up a large portion of total assets. However, the recent increase in total liabilities and the decrease in total assets since 2021 suggest a weakening financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low, and the company has maintained a positive net cash position, reducing immediate financial risk.

Cash Flow

Moderna's cash flow statement shows a concerning trend with negative operating cash flow and declining free cash flow. The free cash flow has deteriorated from a strong positive in 2022 to a negative in TTM 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio reflect operational inefficiencies and cash management challenges.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.24B	6.85B	19.26B	17.74B	274.49M
	Gross Profit
1.77B	2.15B	13.85B	15.12B	266.56M
	EBIT
-3.94B	-4.24B	9.42B	13.30B	-763.14M
	EBITDA
-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-732.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
	Total Assets
14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
	Total Debt
747.00M	1.24B	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Net Debt
-1.18B	-1.66B	-3.21B	-6.85B	-2.62B
	Total Liabilities
3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
	Stockholders Equity
10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
	Operating Cash Flow
-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
	Investing Cash Flow
1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
	Financing Cash Flow
56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.61
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.31, below the 50-day MA of 30.05, and below the 200-day MA of 51.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GMAB	84 Outperform	$13.23B	12.14	23.16%	―	30.43%	82.29%
EXEL	80 Outperform	$10.91B	22.34	23.13%	―	18.49%	176.71%
BMRN	77 Outperform	$11.89B	28.20	9.64%	―	17.35%	151.40%
UTHR	75 Outperform	$13.29B	11.76	19.94%	―	19.85%	21.16%
INCY	75 Outperform	$12.10B	193.47	0.47%	―	17.13%	-88.78%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.35B	3.96	-42.60%	2.86%	17.58%	1.27%
MRNA	45 Neutral	$10.68B	―	-29.34%	―	-38.25%	44.29%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna Projects Revenue Growth and Strategic Cost Reduction

Moderna announced its 2024 product sales reached $3.0 to 3.1 billion, driven by its COVID-19 vaccine business, and reported a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion. Looking ahead, the company plans to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025 and anticipates further cost reductions in 2026. The company expects revenues of $1.5 to 2.5 billion in 2025 and aims for several product approvals and data readouts across its prioritized programs, including vaccines for respiratory viruses and other diseases, with potential significant financial and industry impact.