Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.40B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.72M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: -56.00%
• EPS Growth: -38.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 390,733,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,025,100
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,718,880
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.99
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.15
• 1Y Price Target: $29.07
• Price Target Upside: -14.11% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(6.38% Upside)

MRNA scores at 60 primarily due to weak financial performance driven by declining revenue, heavy losses, and negative cash flow, partially offset by a strong balance sheet and significant cost-reduction efforts. Technicals are supportive with an uptrend across moving averages and positive momentum indicators. Valuation is difficult to assess on earnings due to losses and no dividend yield provided, while earnings-call takeaways were moderately positive on execution and liquidity but tempered by demand uncertainty and a key pipeline setback (CMV discontinuation).

Positive Factors

Strong year-end liquidity

A year-end cash balance of ~$8.1B provides a multi-year liquidity runway to fund late-stage trials, manufacturing scale-up and commercial launches without immediate equity raises. Durable liquidity lowers dilution risk and supports execution through vaccine seasons and pipeline catalysts.

Low financial leverage

A debt-to-equity of 0.07 signals minimal leverage, giving Moderna durable financial flexibility to finance capex, manufacturing and R&D via internal resources or modest borrowing. Low debt reduces solvency risk during revenue volatility inherent to vaccine cycles and biotech development.

Progress on seasonal flu regulatory filings

Global submissions and positive Phase 3 results for mRNA-1010 create a credible path to a recurring seasonal influenza product. If approved, this would diversify revenue beyond COVID, establish a repeatable annual franchise and leverage mRNA agility for strain matching over coming seasons.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue and profitability declines

Steep revenue declines and deeply negative margins reflect structural shrinkage of pandemic-driven vaccine demand. Reduced top-line cash generation limits internal funding for late-stage programs, extends the timeline to self-sustaining operations and raises pressure to deliver new commercial approvals.

Negative operating and free cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flows, despite cost cuts, indicate ongoing cash burn. Over months this necessitates reliance on credit facilities, asset sales, or equity issuance, which can constrain R&D investment pacing and slow commercialization of oncology and rare disease candidates.

Pipeline setback: CMV discontinuation

Discontinuing the CMV program highlights clinical and technical risk for novel mRNA indications and erases an expected future asset. This reduces prospective revenue diversification, represents sunk R&D investment, and lengthens the time needed for pipeline-driven recovery of durable revenues.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA vaccines, most notably its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which has seen significant global demand since its emergency use authorization. The company's revenue model is largely driven by contracts with governments and health organizations for vaccine supply, resulting in substantial upfront payments and milestone payments. Additionally, Moderna engages in collaborations and partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions to develop its mRNA platform for other therapeutic areas, providing additional revenue through collaborative agreements and royalties. As the company expands its pipeline of mRNA-based therapies, potential future revenue streams may include sales from these new products and licensing agreements. Overall, the combination of vaccine sales, partnerships, and a growing pipeline of therapeutics contributes to Moderna's earnings.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability, as evidenced by negative margins and cash flows. The balance sheet shows low leverage, but negative return on equity and cash flow issues highlight operational and financial risks.

Income Statement

Moderna's income statement shows significant challenges with declining revenues and negative profit margins. The TTM data indicates a substantial revenue decline of 27.4% and a negative net profit margin of -140.3%. The company is experiencing negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Despite past high growth rates, recent trends show a downturn, impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -31.4%, reflecting poor profitability. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure, but the declining equity value due to losses is a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a free cash flow growth rate of -24.2% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some efficiency in managing cash relative to net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.22B	3.20B	6.85B	18.88B	17.74B	803.39M
Gross Profit	265.00M	1.74B	2.15B	13.46B	15.12B	764.21M
EBITDA	-2.94B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-703.38M
Net Income	-3.12B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.13B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.50B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
Total Debt	734.00M	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M	237.00M
Total Liabilities	2.81B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
Stockholders Equity	9.33B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.66B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
Operating Cash Flow	-1.98B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
Investing Cash Flow	1.46B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	9.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 33.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.16, above the 50-day MA of 28.17, and above the 200-day MA of 27.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	70 Outperform	―	―	17.68%	―	-86.40%	30.72%
PTGX	61 Neutral	$5.02B	126.70	7.80%	―	-35.39%	-72.97%
MRNA	60 Neutral	$13.40B	-4.20	-29.32%	―	-56.00%	-38.95%
RVMD	59 Neutral	$22.94B	-22.62	-60.76%	―	-100.00%	-44.24%
IONS	56 Neutral	$13.01B	-47.72	-39.99%	―	20.39%	34.00%
RYTM	53 Neutral	$6.74B	-33.80	-240.36%	―	54.92%	28.47%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna updates 2025 outlook and highlights pipeline progress

On January 12, 2026, Moderna reported that it expected unaudited 2025 revenue of about $1.9 billion—slightly above prior guidance—alongside improved projected 2025 GAAP operating expenses of $5.0–$5.2 billion and an estimated year-end 2025 cash balance of $8.1 billion, supported in part by a $1.5 billion term loan facility. The company reiterated a framework of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, further operating expense reductions through 2027 on a path to cash breakeven in 2028, and highlighted progress in its late-stage pipeline, including its approved mNEXSPIKE COVID vaccine, regulatory submissions and studies for RSV, flu, flu/COVID combination and norovirus vaccines, as well as advancing oncology candidates such as mRNA-4157 and mRNA-4359 and rare disease programs mRNA-3927 and mRNA-3705, underpinned by new funding support from Ares Management and CEPI for its H5 pandemic influenza candidate.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Highlights 2025 Progress and Strengthened Vaccine Portfolio

In a January 5, 2026 letter to shareholders, Moderna reviewed a challenging 2025 operating environment in the U.S. but highlighted strong execution that yielded three approved commercial products, multiple new regulatory approvals and a more stable seasonal vaccine business. The company reported that mNEXSPIKE’s U.S. launch in 2025 rapidly made it the leading product in the retail COVID-19 channel, accounting for roughly a quarter of all U.S. retail COVID vaccinations and nearly a third among adults 65 and older, while long-term public-sector and international partnerships in the UK, Canada, Australia, Brazil and Taiwan strengthened revenue visibility and global access to its mRNA vaccines. Moderna advanced its pipeline with U.S. approvals and label expansions for its COVID-19 and RSV vaccines, positive Phase 3 data and global submissions for its flu and flu/COVID combination candidates, continued progress of its personalized cancer therapy intismeran autogene and other oncology programs, and key milestones in rare disease candidates mRNA-3927 and mRNA-3705. At the same time, the company tightened financial discipline, cutting GAAP operating expenses from $11.1 billion in 2023 to an expected level below $5.5 billion in 2025, securing a $1.5 billion term loan facility, and targeting cash breakeven in 2028, while increasingly using AI tools to improve R&D, forecasting and operations as it enters 2026 positioned for its next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Secures $1.5 Billion Credit Facility

On November 19, 2025, Moderna, Inc. entered into a Credit and Guaranty Agreement providing a $1.5 billion credit facility, with $600 million as an initial term loan and $900 million available as delayed draw term loans. The agreement, involving Ares Capital Corporation as the administrative agent, is secured by assets from several international subsidiaries and includes financial covenants requiring minimum liquidity levels, highlighting Moderna’s strategic financial planning to support its late-stage clinical pipeline.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Announces Pipeline Progress and Strategy Update

On November 20, 2025, Moderna, Inc. announced updates on its pipeline progress and business strategy during its Analyst Day. This announcement is significant as it reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to advance its mRNA technology and strengthen its position in the biotechnology sector, potentially impacting stakeholders and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Approves Stock Option Exchange Program

On November 12, 2025, Moderna, Inc. held a Special Meeting of Shareholders where two proposals were approved. The first was a one-time stock option exchange program for non-Executive Committee employees, which received significant support from stockholders. The second proposal allowed for the adjournment of the meeting to a later date if necessary, to ensure sufficient votes for the stock option exchange program. Both proposals were passed with no broker non-votes recorded.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.