Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

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Moderna

(NASDAQ:MRNA)

Select Model

Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:46Neutral

Price Target:

$23.00

▼(-6.08% Downside)

Moderna's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow generation, which are the most impactful factors. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and valuation metrics are unfavorable due to negative earnings. While strategic initiatives and cost reductions are positive, they are overshadowed by revenue declines and operational uncertainties.

Positive Factors

FDA Approvals

Recent FDA approvals enhance Moderna's product portfolio, potentially driving long-term revenue growth and strengthening its competitive position in the vaccine market.

Cost Reduction Achievements

Significant cost reductions improve operational efficiency, potentially enhancing profitability and cash flow generation, which are crucial for long-term financial health.

Patent Victory

The patent victory secures Moderna's intellectual property rights, potentially leading to future licensing revenue and reinforcing its competitive edge in the mRNA space.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Significant revenue decline highlights challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact long-term growth and necessitate diversification of revenue streams.

Financial Loss

Ongoing financial losses indicate profitability challenges, which may strain cash reserves and hinder investment in R&D and new product development over time.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow from operations suggests financial strain, potentially limiting Moderna's ability to fund growth initiatives and respond to market opportunities.

Moderna (MRNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$9.53B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)11.50M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.24

Revenue Growth-38.95%

EPS Growth51.07%

CountryUS

Employees5,800

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength45

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-2.13

Shares Outstanding389,079,740

10 Day Avg. Volume14,406,031

30 Day Avg. Volume11,495,343

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.18

Price to Book (P/B)1.46

Price to Sales (P/S)4.99

P/FCF Ratio-3.94

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.66

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.06

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.95

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.32

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$44.23

Price Target Upside80.60% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering18

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionModerna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneyModerna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA vaccines, with significant income stemming from its COVID-19 vaccine, which has been distributed globally under various agreements with governments and organizations. The company has established substantial partnerships with entities such as the U.S. government and international health organizations, which contribute to its revenue through advanced purchase agreements and supply contracts. Additionally, Moderna is expanding its pipeline to include vaccines and therapies for other diseases, which could diversify its revenue streams in the future. The company also engages in collaborations with pharmaceutical firms and research institutions, further enhancing its financial growth through licensing agreements and shared development costs.

Moderna Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Product Sales by Geography

Product Sales by Geography
Shows where Moderna's products are selling the most, highlighting regional strengths and potential vulnerabilities due to local market conditions or regulatory environments.

Chart InsightsModerna's sales in the United States and Europe have experienced volatility, with a notable drop in 2023 and partial recovery in 2024. The recent earnings call highlights strategic cost reductions and FDA approvals, yet revenue challenges persist, particularly due to shipment delays and a significant decline in COVID vaccine sales. The company's focus on pipeline advancements and financial discipline aims to stabilize sales, but the timing shift in U.K. shipments and workforce restructuring indicate ongoing operational adjustments.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Moderna Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant progress in vaccine approvals and cost reductions, but these were offset by declining revenues, financial losses, and a workforce reduction. While Moderna is making strides in its strategic priorities, the challenges in revenue and operational adjustments indicate uncertainty in the near term.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

FDA Approvals

Secured 3 FDA approvals: mNEXSPIKE COVID vaccine, mRESVIA vaccine for high-risk individuals, and full approval of Spikevax COVID vaccine for children aged 6 months to 11 years.

Cost Reduction Achievements

Achieved a 35% reduction in cost of sales and SG&A combined, and reduced operating expenses by $581 million, a 40% reduction year-over-year in Q2 2025.

Positive Phase III Flu Vaccine Data

Announced strong Phase III efficacy data for the seasonal flu vaccine, showing 26.6% higher efficacy than the standard dose comparator.

Patent Victory

U.K. Court of Appeal upheld the validity of Moderna's EP'949 patent, which was infringed by Pfizer and BioNTech.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decline

Net product sales declined 38% compared to Q2 2024, primarily due to lower COVID vaccine sales.

Financial Loss

Reported a net loss of $825 million for the quarter, though it was an improvement from a $1.3 billion loss in Q2 2024.

Workforce Reduction

Announced a decision to reduce headcount by around 10% to better align cost structure with business conditions.

Delayed Shipments

Updated 2025 projected revenue range reduced by $300 million due to a timing shift of U.K. COVID shipments to Q1 2026.

Company Guidance

During Moderna's Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call, key financial metrics and strategic priorities were highlighted. The company reported $2.1 billion in revenue and a net loss of $0.8 billion, closing the quarter with $7.5 billion in cash and investments. Notably, Moderna achieved a 35% reduction in combined cost of sales and SG&A compared to the previous year, and operating expenses on a cash cost basis were reduced by $581 million, marking a 40% year-over-year decrease. Strategic priorities include driving sales growth through product approvals, such as the FDA's approval of mNEXSPIKE and mRESVIA vaccines, and advancing the pipeline with promising Phase III flu vaccine efficacy data. Moderna is also focused on executing financial discipline, having expanded cost reduction plans to save an additional $400 million, which includes a 10% reduction in workforce. The company aims to reduce annual GAAP operating expenses from $11 billion in 2023 to $5 billion or less by 2027, with a cash cost basis reduction from $8.9 billion in 2023 to $4.2 billion by 2027.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow generation. Despite a strong equity base and low leverage, declining revenues and negative cash flows are concerning. The company must focus on improving operational efficiency and revenue growth for future financial health.

Income Statement

Neutral

Moderna's financial performance shows significant challenges in recent periods. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 52.2%, indicating reasonable cost control. However, the net profit margin is negative due to substantial net losses, suggesting profitability issues. Revenue has decreased significantly from previous periods, highlighting revenue growth challenges.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet remains relatively stable with a strong equity position. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at approximately 0.07, indicating low leverage. However, return on equity is negative due to net losses. The equity ratio is strong at approximately 78.3%, reflecting a solid asset base funded by equity.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow analysis reveals substantial challenges. Operating cash flow is negative, indicating cash burn from operations. The free cash flow is also negative, reflecting significant capital outlays relative to cash generated. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating declining cash generation over time.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.06B	3.20B	6.85B	18.88B	17.74B	803.39M
Gross Profit	1.60B	1.74B	2.15B	13.46B	15.12B	764.21M
EBITDA	-2.72B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-703.38M
Net Income	-2.90B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.01B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.13B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
Total Debt	741.00M	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M	237.00M
Total Liabilities	2.61B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
Stockholders Equity	9.40B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.50B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
Operating Cash Flow	-2.70B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
Investing Cash Flow	1.48B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	21.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price24.49

Price Trends

50DMA

27.06

Negative

100DMA

27.32

Negative

200DMA

30.76

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.36

Negative

RSI

43.74

Neutral

STOCH

40.22

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.80, below the 50-day MA of 27.06, and below the 200-day MA of 30.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Risk Analysis

Moderna disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moderna reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Moderna Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GMAB	82 Outperform	17.76B	14.40	22.13%	―	23.25%	64.46%
INCY	80 Outperform	16.15B	18.80	20.88%	―	18.87%	1088.27%
UTHR	77 Outperform	19.57B	16.89	18.55%	―	17.62%	19.89%
BMRN	76 Outperform	10.34B	15.95	10.90%	―	17.38%	153.58%
EXEL	76 Outperform	10.51B	18.72	29.62%	―	10.73%	81.66%
MRNA	46 Neutral	$9.53B	―	-27.50%	―	-38.95%	51.07%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MRNA

Moderna

24.49

-42.34

-63.35%

BMRN

BioMarin Pharmaceutical

53.85

-16.44

-23.39%

EXEL

Exelixis

39.04

13.09

50.44%

INCY

Incyte

82.70

16.60

25.11%

UTHR

United Therapeutics

432.66

74.31

20.74%

GMAB

Genmab

29.07

4.69

19.24%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 26, 2025