Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQ:MRNA
Top Page
Moderna
(NASDAQ:MRNA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$60.00
▲(21.07% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (shrinking revenue base, deep losses, and significant cash burn), partially offset by a low-debt balance sheet. Technicals are a major positive with strong trend and momentum, while valuation support is limited due to losses. The earnings call adds moderate support via cost discipline and a return-to-growth framework, but regulatory risk and H2 timing concentration reduce near-term visibility.
Positive Factors
Proven mRNA platform and commercial launch capability
Moderna’s mRNA platform has shown repeatable commercial execution: MNEXT Spike captured meaningful U.S. retail share on launch, demonstrating product-market fit, scalable manufacturing and commercial capabilities that support long-term commercialization of future mRNA vaccines and therapeutics globally.
Negative Factors
Severe post-pandemic revenue contraction
A multi-year collapse in revenue erodes scale advantages, squeezes fixed-cost absorption and lengthens the timeline to sustainable profitability. Recovery depends on successful launches, international tenders and diversification beyond COVID, leaving execution and timing risk for core revenue restoration.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Proven mRNA platform and commercial launch capability
Moderna’s mRNA platform has shown repeatable commercial execution: MNEXT Spike captured meaningful U.S. retail share on launch, demonstrating product-market fit, scalable manufacturing and commercial capabilities that support long-term commercialization of future mRNA vaccines and therapeutics globally.
Read all positive factors
Moderna (MRNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.57B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth-56.00%
EPS Growth-38.95%
CountryUS
Employees5,800
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.11
Shares Outstanding394,939,420
10 Day Avg. Volume6,771,954
30 Day Avg. Volume8,757,657
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)5.90
P/FCF Ratio-5.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit68.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.13Price Target Upside-27.10% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)-6.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.08B
Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in ...
How the Company Makes Money
Moderna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA vaccines, most notably its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which has seen significant global demand since its emergency use authorization. The company's revenue model is largely driven b...
Moderna Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, revealing which segments are driving growth and how diversified Moderna's income streams are, indicating stability and strategic focus.
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, revealing which segments are driving growth and how diversified Moderna's income streams are, indicating stability and strategic focus.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyModerna Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights meaningful operational and commercial progress — notably strong MNEXT Spike launch, substantial cost reductions (operating expenses down 30%, cost of sales down 41%, R&D down 31%), improved losses and a healthy cash balance — alongside multiple clinical and commercial catalysts (fully enrolled late‑stage trials, strategic partnerships, international filings). Major risks include the FDA refusal to file for the flu vaccine, continued net losses and cash runoff toward 2026, and reliance on event‑driven readouts and international approvals for growth. Overall, the company demonstrated strong execution and cost discipline but faces material regulatory and timing risks that temper near‑term visibility.Positive Updates
Revenue and Quarterly Performance
Total 2025 revenue of $1.9B; Q4 revenue $700M (U.S. $300M; international $400M). Full-year U.S. revenue $1.2B (≈62% of total) and international $700M (≈38%). Q4 came in at the higher end of guidance.
Negative Updates
FDA Refusal to File (RTF) on Flu Vaccine (mRNA-1010)
FDA issued a refusal to file letter for the seasonal flu program (mRNA-1010). Management described this as a major disappointment and regulatory uncertainty; a Type A meeting has been requested but timing and requirements to refile remain unclear, creating U.S. market risk for the flu program.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Quarterly Performance
Total 2025 revenue of $1.9B; Q4 revenue $700M (U.S. $300M; international $400M). Full-year U.S. revenue $1.2B (≈62% of total) and international $700M (≈38%). Q4 came in at the higher end of guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Moderna’s 2026 financial framework targets up to 10% revenue growth (with ~15% of revenue in H1 and ~85% in H2), a more balanced U.S./international mix vs ~62%/38% in 2025, and the start of locally manufactured sales in the U.K. and Australia; it projects cost of sales ≈ $900M (flat vs 2025’s $868M with gross‑margin improvement), R&D ≈ $3.0B (vs $3.1B in 2025), SG&A ≈ $1.0B (flat), total GAAP operating expenses ≈ $4.9B and cash costs ≈ $4.2B (ex‑stock comp, D&A), negligible taxes, capex $200–300M (including Norwood fill‑finish), and year‑end cash & investments of $5.5–6.0B (no further credit draws assumed). For context, 2025 results were: revenue $1.9B (Q4 $700M; Q4 U.S. $300M / international $400M; full‑year U.S. $1.2B / international $700M), cost of sales $868M (‑41% vs 2024), operating expenses down $2.2B (‑30%), net loss $2.8B (EPS ‑$7.26; Q4 net loss $800M / EPS ‑$2.11), year‑end cash & investments $8.1B (or $7.6B excluding a $600M initial credit draw), cash costs ~ $4.3B in 2025, and the company said it exceeded its 2025 cost‑reduction plan by over $1.0B.Moderna Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.94B | 3.20B | 6.85B | 18.88B | 17.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.08B | 1.74B | 2.15B | 13.46B | 15.12B |
| EBITDA | -2.55B | -3.39B | -3.28B | 9.77B | 13.53B |
| Net Income | -2.82B | -3.56B | -4.71B | 8.36B | 12.20B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.34B | 14.14B | 18.43B | 25.86B | 24.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.80B | 7.03B | 8.60B | 9.90B | 10.73B |
| Total Debt | 1.92B | 747.00M | 1.24B | 1.20B | 916.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.69B | 3.24B | 4.57B | 6.74B | 10.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.65B | 10.90B | 13.85B | 19.12B | 14.14B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.06B | -4.05B | -3.83B | 4.58B | 13.34B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.87B | -3.00B | -3.12B | 4.98B | 13.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.95B | 1.95B | 4.21B | -5.18B | -8.52B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 593.00M | 56.00M | -1.38B | -3.45B | -873.00M |
Moderna Technical Analysis
Neutral
49.56
Price Trends
48.60
Positive
38.64
Positive
33.09
Positive
Market Momentum
1.00
Positive
46.07
Neutral
35.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 49.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.11, above the 50-day MA of 48.60, and above the 200-day MA of 33.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MRNA.
Moderna Risk Analysis
Moderna disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moderna reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moderna Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $6.32B | -42.66 | -19.89% | ― | -35.39% | -72.97% | |
59 Neutral | $18.33B | -13.39 | -63.10% | ― | -100.00% | -44.24% | |
58 Neutral | $19.57B | -4.07 | -30.15% | ― | -56.00% | -38.95% | |
52 Neutral | $5.18B | -35.39 | -179.05% | ― | 54.92% | 28.47% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $11.92B | -33.22 | -68.82% | ― | 20.39% | 34.00% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MRNA
Moderna
49.56
21.21
74.81%
IONS
Ionis Pharmaceuticals
72.15
41.98
139.14%
PTGX
Protagonist Therapeutics
98.97
50.61
104.65%
RYTM
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals
75.82
22.85
43.14%
RVMD
Revolution Medicines
92.51
57.15
161.62%
Moderna Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Moderna Reaches Major Patent Settlement on mRNA Vaccines
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Moderna entered into a settlement agreement with Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences to resolve all worldwide patent litigation related to Spikevax, mRESVIA and its broader infectious disease portfolio. The deal grants Modern...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsProduct-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Moderna Faces FDA Setback on mRNA Flu Vaccine
Negative
Feb 11, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Moderna disclosed that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research issued a Refusal-to-File letter on February 3, 2026 for its biologics license application for the investigation...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Moderna updates 2025 outlook and highlights pipeline progress
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Moderna reported that it expected unaudited 2025 revenue of about $1.9 billion—slightly above prior guidance—alongside improved projected 2025 GAAP operating expenses of $5.0–$5.2 billion and an estimated yea...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingProduct-Related Announcements
Moderna Highlights 2025 Progress and Strengthened Vaccine Portfolio
Positive
Jan 5, 2026
In a January 5, 2026 letter to shareholders, Moderna reviewed a challenging 2025 operating environment in the U.S. but highlighted strong execution that yielded three approved commercial products, multiple new regulatory approvals and a more stabl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.