Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.38B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: -38.95%
• EPS Growth: 51.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -2.13
• Shares Outstanding: 389,079,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,060,985
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,503,987
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.32
• 1Y Price Target: $43.88
• Price Target Upside: 56.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▼(-3.64% Downside)

Moderna's overall stock score is impacted primarily by its financial challenges and bearish technical indicators. While there are positive strategic shifts and cost management efforts, revenue declines and profitability issues are significant concerns. The earnings call provided some positive outlooks, but the valuation remains unattractive due to ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

Aggressive cost cuts across the organization are promising signs that MRNA is taking steps to optimize its cost structure.

Financial Performance

MRNA reported a 2Q topline beat driven by Spikevax, with product revenue of $114mn, which was above consensus estimates.

Product Development

Mono flu vaccine and combo flu+COVID vaccine are being prepped for FDA submission following positive phase 3 flu results.

Negative Factors

COVID Revenue Dependency

The company’s near- and intermediate-term prospects are still largely tied to COVID revenue streams, which presents forecasting difficulty.

Revenue Guidance

MRNA lowered the upper-end of FY25 product revenue guidance to $1.5bn-$2.2bn from $1.5bn-$2.5bn prior due to a timing shift of deliveries of contracted revenue for the UK into 1Q26.

Workforce Reduction

The announcement of a workforce reduction of about 10% indicates a significant restructuring effort.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA vaccines, with significant income stemming from its COVID-19 vaccine, which has been distributed globally under various agreements with governments and organizations. The company has established substantial partnerships with entities such as the U.S. government and international health organizations, which contribute to its revenue through advanced purchase agreements and supply contracts. Additionally, Moderna is expanding its pipeline to include vaccines and therapies for other diseases, which could diversify its revenue streams in the future. The company also engages in collaborations with pharmaceutical firms and research institutions, further enhancing its financial growth through licensing agreements and shared development costs.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability with negative cash flows and revenue declines. Despite a strong equity base and low leverage, the company must focus on improving operational efficiency and revenue growth.

Income Statement

Moderna's financial performance shows significant challenges in recent periods. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 52.2%, indicating reasonable cost control. However, the net profit margin is negative due to substantial net losses, suggesting profitability issues. Revenue has decreased significantly from previous periods, highlighting revenue growth challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains relatively stable with a strong equity position. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at approximately 0.07, indicating low leverage. However, return on equity is negative due to net losses. The equity ratio is strong at approximately 78.3%, reflecting a solid asset base funded by equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals substantial challenges. Operating cash flow is negative, indicating cash burn from operations. The free cash flow is also negative, reflecting significant capital outlays relative to cash generated. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating declining cash generation over time.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.06B	3.20B	6.85B	18.88B	17.74B	803.39M
Gross Profit	1.60B	1.74B	2.15B	13.46B	15.12B	764.21M
EBITDA	-2.72B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-703.38M
Net Income	-2.90B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.01B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.13B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
Total Debt	741.00M	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M	237.00M
Total Liabilities	2.61B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
Stockholders Equity	9.40B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.50B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
Operating Cash Flow	-2.70B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
Investing Cash Flow	1.48B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	21.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 28.02
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 28.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.48, below the 50-day MA of 29.16, and below the 200-day MA of 33.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GMAB	84 Outperform	$14.45B	11.54	26.08%	―	23.25%	64.46%
UTHR	80 Outperform	$14.11B	12.23	19.30%	―	17.62%	19.89%
BMRN	76 Outperform	$11.14B	17.04	11.62%	―	17.38%	153.58%
INCY	75 Outperform	$16.97B	19.76	24.30%	―	18.87%	1088.27%
EXEL	73 Outperform	$10.31B	18.37	29.00%	―	10.73%	81.66%
Sector *	54 Neutral	€4.19B	12.94	-41.26%	2.53%	14.43%	-26.74%
MRNA	45 Neutral	$10.38B	―	-27.50%	―	-38.95%	51.07%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna Projects Revenue Growth and Strategic Cost Reduction

Moderna announced its 2024 product sales reached $3.0 to 3.1 billion, driven by its COVID-19 vaccine business, and reported a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion. Looking ahead, the company plans to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025 and anticipates further cost reductions in 2026. The company expects revenues of $1.5 to 2.5 billion in 2025 and aims for several product approvals and data readouts across its prioritized programs, including vaccines for respiratory viruses and other diseases, with potential significant financial and industry impact.