Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.22B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.66M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: -56.00%
• EPS Growth: -38.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 390,733,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,820,761
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,655,488
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.99
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 63.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.73
• 1Y Price Target: $32.67
• Price Target Upside: -25.88% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $46.00 ▲(4.38% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (declining revenue, deep losses, and negative cash flows). Technicals provide a secondary lift due to a strong uptrend and positive momentum, though overbought signals add risk. Valuation is constrained by losses (negative P/E), while the latest earnings call modestly supports the outlook through cost discipline, cash runway, and pipeline/approval progress despite weaker revenue guidance and program discontinuation.

Positive Factors

Strong cash position

A multi-billion cash balance provides a durable runway to fund late-stage trials, manufacturing scale-up and regulatory filings without immediate dilution. This liquidity reduces financing risk, supports strategic partnerships and underpins execution of multi-year commercial plans.

Sustained cost reductions

Material cost cuts indicate management can reshape the cost base, improving structural margins and extending runway toward the 2028 cash‑breakeven target. Reduced operating spend allows redirected investment into highest‑value programs and lowers fixed‑cost sensitivity to revenue swings.

Global partnerships & manufacturing footprint

Local manufacturing and long-term offtake agreements create durable revenue visibility and lower supply/geo‑risk, enhancing access to public‑sector contracts. This strengthens competitive position for seasonal vaccine supply and supports scale for future product launches.

Negative Factors

Declining core revenue

Steep revenue declines from lower COVID demand materially reduce recurring cash inflows and weaken the company’s ability to self‑fund R&D. Absent successful new product launches, revenue volatility increases reliance on partnerships or financing for long‑term growth.

Negative profitability and cash flow

Deep, persistent losses and negative operating cash flow constrain reinvestment and heighten dependence on capital markets despite low leverage. Continued negative margins challenge sustainable funding of clinical programs and could force strategic tradeoffs if revenues don’t recover.

Pipeline clinical risk

Clinical failures are structural risks that can delay or eliminate expected future revenue streams and raise development costs. Each program discontinuation reduces portfolio optionality and increases the importance (and binary risk) of success in remaining late‑stage programs.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Its respiratory vaccines include COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus, Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3 vaccines; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, herpes simplex virus, and varicella-zoster virus vaccines; and public health vaccines consists of Zika and Nipah vaccines. The company also offers systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics; cancer vaccines, such as personalized cancer, KRAS, and checkpoint vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology products; localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. It has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA vaccines, most notably its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which has seen significant global demand since its emergency use authorization. The company's revenue model is largely driven by contracts with governments and health organizations for vaccine supply, resulting in substantial upfront payments and milestone payments. Additionally, Moderna engages in collaborations and partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions to develop its mRNA platform for other therapeutic areas, providing additional revenue through collaborative agreements and royalties. As the company expands its pipeline of mRNA-based therapies, potential future revenue streams may include sales from these new products and licensing agreements. Overall, the combination of vaccine sales, partnerships, and a growing pipeline of therapeutics contributes to Moderna's earnings.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak profitability and cash generation dominate: revenue is declining and margins are deeply negative, with negative operating and free cash flow. The balance sheet is a partial offset with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.07), but negative ROE reflects ongoing losses.

Income Statement

Moderna's income statement shows significant challenges with declining revenues and negative profit margins. The TTM data indicates a substantial revenue decline of 27.4% and a negative net profit margin of -140.3%. The company is experiencing negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Despite past high growth rates, recent trends show a downturn, impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -31.4%, reflecting poor profitability. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure, but the declining equity value due to losses is a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a free cash flow growth rate of -24.2% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some efficiency in managing cash relative to net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.22B	3.20B	6.85B	18.88B	17.74B	803.39M
Gross Profit	265.00M	1.74B	2.15B	13.46B	15.12B	764.21M
EBITDA	-2.94B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-703.38M
Net Income	-3.12B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.13B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.50B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
Total Debt	734.00M	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M	237.00M
Total Liabilities	2.81B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
Stockholders Equity	9.33B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.66B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
Operating Cash Flow	-1.98B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
Investing Cash Flow	1.46B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	9.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 44.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.63, above the 50-day MA of 33.64, and above the 200-day MA of 28.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PTGX	61 Neutral	$5.11B	131.12	7.80%	―	-35.39%	-72.97%
IONS	56 Neutral	$13.39B	-48.54	-39.99%	―	20.39%	34.00%
RVMD	55 Neutral	$18.74B	-18.75	-60.76%	―	-100.00%	-44.24%
MRNA	53 Neutral	$17.22B	-5.28	-29.32%	―	-56.00%	-38.95%
RYTM	53 Neutral	$6.84B	-35.12	-240.36%	―	54.92%	28.47%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna updates 2025 outlook and highlights pipeline progress

On January 12, 2026, Moderna reported that it expected unaudited 2025 revenue of about $1.9 billion—slightly above prior guidance—alongside improved projected 2025 GAAP operating expenses of $5.0–$5.2 billion and an estimated year-end 2025 cash balance of $8.1 billion, supported in part by a $1.5 billion term loan facility. The company reiterated a framework of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, further operating expense reductions through 2027 on a path to cash breakeven in 2028, and highlighted progress in its late-stage pipeline, including its approved mNEXSPIKE COVID vaccine, regulatory submissions and studies for RSV, flu, flu/COVID combination and norovirus vaccines, as well as advancing oncology candidates such as mRNA-4157 and mRNA-4359 and rare disease programs mRNA-3927 and mRNA-3705, underpinned by new funding support from Ares Management and CEPI for its H5 pandemic influenza candidate.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Highlights 2025 Progress and Strengthened Vaccine Portfolio

In a January 5, 2026 letter to shareholders, Moderna reviewed a challenging 2025 operating environment in the U.S. but highlighted strong execution that yielded three approved commercial products, multiple new regulatory approvals and a more stable seasonal vaccine business. The company reported that mNEXSPIKE’s U.S. launch in 2025 rapidly made it the leading product in the retail COVID-19 channel, accounting for roughly a quarter of all U.S. retail COVID vaccinations and nearly a third among adults 65 and older, while long-term public-sector and international partnerships in the UK, Canada, Australia, Brazil and Taiwan strengthened revenue visibility and global access to its mRNA vaccines. Moderna advanced its pipeline with U.S. approvals and label expansions for its COVID-19 and RSV vaccines, positive Phase 3 data and global submissions for its flu and flu/COVID combination candidates, continued progress of its personalized cancer therapy intismeran autogene and other oncology programs, and key milestones in rare disease candidates mRNA-3927 and mRNA-3705. At the same time, the company tightened financial discipline, cutting GAAP operating expenses from $11.1 billion in 2023 to an expected level below $5.5 billion in 2025, securing a $1.5 billion term loan facility, and targeting cash breakeven in 2028, while increasingly using AI tools to improve R&D, forecasting and operations as it enters 2026 positioned for its next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Secures $1.5 Billion Credit Facility

On November 19, 2025, Moderna, Inc. entered into a Credit and Guaranty Agreement providing a $1.5 billion credit facility, with $600 million as an initial term loan and $900 million available as delayed draw term loans. The agreement, involving Ares Capital Corporation as the administrative agent, is secured by assets from several international subsidiaries and includes financial covenants requiring minimum liquidity levels, highlighting Moderna’s strategic financial planning to support its late-stage clinical pipeline.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Announces Pipeline Progress and Strategy Update

On November 20, 2025, Moderna, Inc. announced updates on its pipeline progress and business strategy during its Analyst Day. This announcement is significant as it reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to advance its mRNA technology and strengthen its position in the biotechnology sector, potentially impacting stakeholders and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.

Moderna Approves Stock Option Exchange Program

On November 12, 2025, Moderna, Inc. held a Special Meeting of Shareholders where two proposals were approved. The first was a one-time stock option exchange program for non-Executive Committee employees, which received significant support from stockholders. The second proposal allowed for the adjournment of the meeting to a later date if necessary, to ensure sufficient votes for the stock option exchange program. Both proposals were passed with no broker non-votes recorded.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRNA) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Moderna stock, see the MRNA Stock Forecast page.