Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.21B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 10.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: -56.00%
• EPS Growth: -38.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 390,733,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,632,385
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,130,564
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.99
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.15
• 1Y Price Target: $29.57
• Price Target Upside: -15.27% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): -8.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.91B

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $35.00 ▲(0.29% Upside)

Moderna's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability, offset by strong technical momentum and strategic initiatives highlighted in recent earnings and corporate events. The valuation remains a concern due to ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

These partnerships enhance Moderna's global manufacturing capabilities and secure long-term revenue streams, strengthening its market position.

Pipeline Progress

Advancements in the pipeline, particularly in oncology, indicate potential for future product approvals and revenue diversification.

Pandemic Preparedness

This investment supports Moderna's role in global pandemic preparedness, potentially expanding its vaccine portfolio and market reach.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

The significant revenue decline highlights challenges in maintaining demand for COVID vaccines, impacting overall financial performance.

Negative Profit Margins

Sustained negative profit margins indicate operational inefficiencies and hinder the company's ability to generate sustainable profits.

Net Loss

The net loss underscores financial challenges and may limit resources available for R&D and strategic initiatives, affecting growth prospects.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Moderna operates primarily in the healthcare sector, leveraging its proprietary mRNA technology platform to create a new class of medicines for various diseases. The company's core products include its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, as well as candidates in clinical development for infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA vaccines, most notably its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which has seen significant global demand since its emergency use authorization. The company's revenue model is largely driven by contracts with governments and health organizations for vaccine supply, resulting in substantial upfront payments and milestone payments. Additionally, Moderna engages in collaborations and partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions to develop its mRNA platform for other therapeutic areas, providing additional revenue through collaborative agreements and royalties. As the company expands its pipeline of mRNA-based therapies, potential future revenue streams may include sales from these new products and licensing agreements. Overall, the combination of vaccine sales, partnerships, and a growing pipeline of therapeutics contributes to Moderna's earnings.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability, as evidenced by negative margins and cash flows. The balance sheet shows low leverage, but negative return on equity and cash flow issues highlight operational and financial risks.

Income Statement

Moderna's income statement shows significant challenges with declining revenues and negative profit margins. The TTM data indicates a substantial revenue decline of 27.4% and a negative net profit margin of -140.3%. The company is experiencing negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Despite past high growth rates, recent trends show a downturn, impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -31.4%, reflecting poor profitability. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure, but the declining equity value due to losses is a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a free cash flow growth rate of -24.2% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some efficiency in managing cash relative to net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.22B	3.20B	6.85B	18.88B	17.74B	803.39M
Gross Profit	265.00M	1.74B	2.15B	13.46B	15.12B	764.21M
EBITDA	-2.94B	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-703.38M
Net Income	-3.12B	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.13B	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.50B	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
Total Debt	734.00M	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M	237.00M
Total Liabilities	2.81B	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
Stockholders Equity	9.33B	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.66B	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
Operating Cash Flow	-1.98B	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
Investing Cash Flow	1.46B	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	9.00M	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.04, above the 50-day MA of 26.60, and above the 200-day MA of 27.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.16 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVAC	70 Outperform	$936.76M	5.73	17.68%	―	-86.40%	30.72%
PTGX	68 Neutral	$5.38B	138.00	7.80%	―	-35.39%	-72.97%
IONS	61 Neutral	$12.89B	-47.53	-39.99%	―	20.39%	34.00%
MRNA	59 Neutral	$13.21B	-4.33	-29.32%	―	-56.00%	-38.95%
RYTM	59 Neutral	$7.48B	-36.38	-240.36%	―	54.92%	28.47%
RVMD	52 Neutral	$15.23B	-15.55	-60.76%	―	-100.00%	-44.24%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna Secures $1.5 Billion Credit Facility

On November 19, 2025, Moderna, Inc. entered into a Credit and Guaranty Agreement providing a $1.5 billion credit facility, with $600 million as an initial term loan and $900 million available as delayed draw term loans. The agreement, involving Ares Capital Corporation as the administrative agent, is secured by assets from several international subsidiaries and includes financial covenants requiring minimum liquidity levels, highlighting Moderna’s strategic financial planning to support its late-stage clinical pipeline.

Moderna Announces Pipeline Progress and Strategy Update

On November 20, 2025, Moderna, Inc. announced updates on its pipeline progress and business strategy during its Analyst Day. This announcement is significant as it reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to advance its mRNA technology and strengthen its position in the biotechnology sector, potentially impacting stakeholders and market dynamics.

Moderna Approves Stock Option Exchange Program

On November 12, 2025, Moderna, Inc. held a Special Meeting of Shareholders where two proposals were approved. The first was a one-time stock option exchange program for non-Executive Committee employees, which received significant support from stockholders. The second proposal allowed for the adjournment of the meeting to a later date if necessary, to ensure sufficient votes for the stock option exchange program. Both proposals were passed with no broker non-votes recorded.