Moderna (MRNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.21B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: -38.25%
• EPS Growth: 44.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,800
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 41
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -2.52
• Shares Outstanding: 386,741,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,410,312
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,846,737
• PEG Ratio: -0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 29.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -193.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -25.85
• 1Y Price Target: $47.93
• Price Target Upside: 40.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $35.00 ▲(2.49%Upside)

Moderna's financial performance is the most significant factor affecting its stock score, with substantial declines in revenue and profitability. Technical indicators provide some positive momentum, but valuation remains weak due to negative earnings. Despite strategic cost reductions and market expansions, challenges persist, particularly in revenue generation and regulatory hurdles.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trial Results

Moderna reported positive results from the Phase III P304 study investigating the relative vaccine efficacy (rVE) of its seasonal flu mRNA vaccine (mRNA-1010) in adults >50 years old.

Regulatory Approvals

Regulatory filings for the flu and flu+COVID combination vaccine (mRNA-1083) will be submitted shortly, highlighting a significant commercial opportunity.

Vaccine Efficacy

MRNA-1010 achieves superior vaccine efficacy to Fluarix in Phase III study, opening up regulatory path for a combination flu/COVID vaccine.

Negative Factors

Market Skepticism

Positioning in the stock skews short, indicating some market skepticism.

Regulatory Challenges

A more onerous vaccine regulatory environment is weighing not just on approvability and recommended use of Moderna's vaccines, but also on operating expenses.

Revenue Estimates

Lower expected COVID-19 revenue has led to a slight reduction in total revenue estimates.

Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines to create a new generation of transformative medicines for patients. The company is involved in the development and commercialization of mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics across various therapeutic areas, including infectious diseases, oncology, cardiovascular diseases, and rare genetic disorders. Moderna's most notable product is its COVID-19 vaccine, which has played a significant role in addressing the global pandemic.

How the Company Makes Money

Moderna makes money primarily through the sale of its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which became a major source of revenue following its emergency use authorization and subsequent full approval in numerous countries worldwide. The company enters into supply agreements with governments and international organizations to distribute its vaccines. Additionally, Moderna is exploring and developing other therapeutic and vaccine candidates, aiming to expand its product portfolio. Revenue also comes from collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical and biotech companies, research grants, and government contracts that support the development of its pipeline products. These partnerships often involve significant upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future product sales, contributing to the company's earnings.

Moderna Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Moderna faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue and profitability. Operational losses and negative cash flows pose risks to financial stability despite a strong equity base and low leverage.

Income Statement

Moderna's income statement shows a significant decline in revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, with revenue dropping from $19.26 billion to $3.16 billion. Both EBIT and net income have turned negative, indicating substantial operational losses. The gross profit margin has also decreased sharply. These trends suggest substantial challenges in maintaining profitability and revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position with stockholders' equity consistently making up a large portion of total assets. However, the recent increase in total liabilities and the decrease in total assets since 2021 suggest a weakening financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low, and the company has maintained a positive net cash position, reducing immediate financial risk.

Cash Flow

Moderna's cash flow statement shows a concerning trend with negative operating cash flow and declining free cash flow. The free cash flow has deteriorated from a strong positive in 2022 to a negative in TTM 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio and free cash flow to net income ratio reflect operational inefficiencies and cash management challenges.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.24B	6.85B	19.26B	17.74B	274.49M
Gross Profit	1.77B	2.15B	13.85B	15.12B	266.56M
EBITDA	-3.39B	-3.28B	9.77B	13.53B	-732.00M
Net Income	-3.56B	-4.71B	8.36B	12.20B	-747.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.14B	18.43B	25.86B	24.67B	7.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.03B	8.60B	9.90B	10.73B	4.61B
Total Debt	747.00M	1.24B	1.20B	916.00M	237.00M
Total Liabilities	3.24B	4.57B	6.74B	10.52B	4.78B
Stockholders Equity	10.90B	13.85B	19.12B	14.14B	2.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-4.05B	-3.83B	4.58B	13.34B	1.96B
Operating Cash Flow	-3.00B	-3.12B	4.98B	13.62B	2.03B
Investing Cash Flow	1.95B	4.21B	-5.18B	-8.52B	-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow	56.00M	-1.38B	-3.45B	-873.00M	2.03B

Moderna Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.69, above the 50-day MA of 28.58, and below the 200-day MA of 35.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.

Moderna Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXEL	84 Outperform	$12.44B	20.69	30.22%	―	24.49%	244.87%
UTHR	78 Outperform	$13.73B	12.15	19.94%	―	19.85%	21.16%
BMRN	77 Outperform	$11.32B	21.90	9.64%	―	17.99%	152.10%
INCY	73 Outperform	$13.64B	217.20	0.47%	―	17.13%	-88.78%
GMAB	72 Outperform	$14.43B	13.14	22.69%	―	25.11%	46.46%
MRNA	55 Neutral	$13.21B	―	-29.34%	―	-38.25%	44.29%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.63B	0.11	-62.96%	2.08%	16.16%	0.31%

Moderna Corporate Events

Moderna Projects Revenue Growth and Strategic Cost Reduction

Moderna announced its 2024 product sales reached $3.0 to 3.1 billion, driven by its COVID-19 vaccine business, and reported a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion. Looking ahead, the company plans to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025 and anticipates further cost reductions in 2026. The company expects revenues of $1.5 to 2.5 billion in 2025 and aims for several product approvals and data readouts across its prioritized programs, including vaccines for respiratory viruses and other diseases, with potential significant financial and industry impact.