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Moderna
(NASDAQ:MRNA)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$70.00
▲(30.31% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/09/26
The score is most constrained by weak financial performance—deep losses and sustained negative free cash flow—despite a comparatively solid, low-leverage balance sheet. Technicals are a major offset, with strong trend and momentum signals. The latest earnings call supports a mid-range score: cost discipline and reiterated growth targets are constructive, but the litigation settlement, potential additional legal exposure, and expected cash drawdown meaningfully increase risk. Valuation is difficult to support with a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Low leverage and a sizeable equity base provide a durable liquidity buffer and reduce refinancing risk, allowing Moderna to fund R&D, manufacturing scale-up and strategic partnerships. This financial flexibility supports execution through product commercialization cycles and near-term revenue variability.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow signal structural cash burn that will consume reserves if revenue and margins do not improve. Ongoing cash outflows constrain strategic flexibility, increase the probability of future financing, and heighten sensitivity to execution of new product launches.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Low leverage and a sizeable equity base provide a durable liquidity buffer and reduce refinancing risk, allowing Moderna to fund R&D, manufacturing scale-up and strategic partnerships. This financial flexibility supports execution through product commercialization cycles and near-term revenue variability.
Read all positive factors
Moderna Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, revealing which segments are driving growth and how diversified Moderna's income streams are, indicating stability and strategic focus.
Breaks down revenue across different business areas, revealing which segments are driving growth and how diversified Moderna's income streams are, indicating stability and strategic focus.
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The Fly
The FlyModerna (MRNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.76B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth-29.97%
EPS Growth6.60%
CountryUS
Employees4,700
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-8.15
Shares Outstanding396,786,250
10 Day Avg. Volume8,381,289
30 Day Avg. Volume8,583,624
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)5.90
P/FCF Ratio-5.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.64Price Target Upside-13.18% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)-8.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.09B
Moderna Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medi...
How the Company Makes Money
Moderna makes money primarily by selling mRNA-based vaccines and recognizing revenue associated with those sales. Its key revenue stream has been product revenue from Spikevax (its COVID-19 vaccine), generated through supply agreements and commerc...
Moderna Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly constructive commercial and scientific update: strong Q1 revenue growth (driven by international strategic partnerships), multiple regulatory approvals (including the first flu+COVID combo), meaningful cost reductions (adjusted cash cost down 26% YoY) and continued pipeline advancement across respiratory, oncology and rare diseases. Offsetting these positives were a large, near-term litigation settlement charge recognized in Q1 that materially increased cost of sales and GAAP loss, potential contingent legal exposure (up to $1.3B) with multi‑year timing uncertainty, and expected cash drawdown through 2026. On balance, the company demonstrated operational execution and long‑term value drivers while managing a significant one‑time legal headwind.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Revenue Beat
Total revenue of $400 million in Q1 2026, coming in above guidance and representing a $300 million increase versus prior year (≈+300% YoY). Geographic mix ~80% international / 20% U.S.
Negative Updates
Large Litigation Settlement Charge
Recognized $878 million of a $950 million lump-sum settlement in Q1 cost of sales (total settlement payable in Q3 2026). Cost of sales for the quarter totaled $955 million (includes settlement). Full-year cost of sales projection increased from $0.9B to $1.8B to incorporate the settlement.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 Revenue Beat
Total revenue of $400 million in Q1 2026, coming in above guidance and representing a $300 million increase versus prior year (≈+300% YoY). Geographic mix ~80% international / 20% U.S.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Moderna reiterated 2026 guidance and provided detailed targets: after a strong Q1 (revenue $400M, up ~$300M YoY; geographic mix ~80% international/20% U.S.; Q1 net loss $1.3B GAAP or $3.40/share, excluding the litigation settlement net loss $0.5B or $1.18/share, >50% improvement YoY), management expects full-year revenue growth of up to 10% (2026 mix roughly 50/50 U.S./international), Q2 revenue of $50–$100M (evenly split U.S./OUS) and H1 revenue of ~$440–$490M; cost guidance includes cost of sales now $1.8B (up from $0.9B due to a $0.9B litigation charge, $950M cash payment due Q3 with $878M recognized in Q1 and $72M amortized over 3 years), R&D ≈ $3.0B (weighted to H2), SG&A ≈ $1.0B, total GAAP operating expenses excluding the litigation charge ≈ $4.9B, adjusted cash costs target ≈ $4.2B (ex-SBC, D&A) with Q1 showing a 26% YoY reduction, capex $0.2–$0.3B, taxes negligible, ending cash expected $4.5–$5.0B (current cash $7.5B).Moderna Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.23B | 1.94B | 3.20B | 6.85B | 18.88B | 17.74B |
| Gross Profit | -309.00M | 1.08B | 1.74B | 2.15B | 13.46B | 15.12B |
| EBITDA | -2.88B | -2.55B | -3.39B | -3.28B | 9.95B | 13.54B |
| Net Income | -3.19B | -2.82B | -3.56B | -4.71B | 8.36B | 12.20B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.49B | 12.34B | 14.14B | 18.43B | 25.86B | 24.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.21B | 5.80B | 7.03B | 8.60B | 9.90B | 10.73B |
| Total Debt | 1.30B | 1.92B | 747.00M | 1.24B | 1.20B | 916.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.08B | 3.69B | 3.24B | 4.57B | 6.74B | 10.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.41B | 8.65B | 10.90B | 13.85B | 19.12B | 14.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.58B | -2.06B | -4.05B | -3.83B | 4.58B | 13.34B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.45B | -1.87B | -3.00B | -3.12B | 4.98B | 13.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.14B | 1.95B | 1.95B | 4.21B | -5.18B | -8.52B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 585.00M | 593.00M | 56.00M | -1.38B | -3.45B | -873.00M |
Moderna Technical Analysis
Positive
53.72
Price Trends
56.47
Positive
54.11
Positive
43.02
Positive
Market Momentum
4.44
Positive
54.74
Neutral
10.15
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.19, below the 50-day MA of 56.47, and above the 200-day MA of 43.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MRNA.
Moderna Risk Analysis
Moderna disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moderna reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moderna Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $39.32B | -25.94 | -83.22% | ― | ― | -76.93% | |
60 Neutral | $26.76B | -8.38 | -36.73% | ― | -29.97% | 6.60% | |
59 Neutral | $8.44B | -75.18 | -17.76% | ― | -64.36% | -302.09% | |
54 Neutral | $7.54B | -35.04 | -203.25% | ― | 58.67% | -11.45% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $9.08B | -27.50 | -58.57% | ― | 47.40% | 32.85% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MRNA
Moderna
68.28
36.08
112.05%
IONS
Ionis Pharmaceuticals
54.73
12.56
29.78%
PTGX
Protagonist Therapeutics
135.46
79.02
140.01%
RYTM
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals
109.69
19.01
20.96%
RVMD
Revolution Medicines
184.44
145.39
372.32%
Moderna Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Moderna Strengthens Board with New Financial Director
Positive
Jul 8, 2026
On July 6, 2026, Moderna’s Board of Directors appointed veteran financial executive Michael McDonnell as a Class II director, effective July 8, 2026, with his term running until the 2029 annual meeting. McDonnell, who has over three decades ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Moderna Updates Bylaws and Confirms Governance Leadership
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Moderna’s board amended the company’s by-laws to designate U.S. federal district courts as the exclusive forum for Securities Act litigation, aligning its governance framework with recent changes to Delaware corporate l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.