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Exelixis (EXEL)
NASDAQ:EXEL
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Exelixis
(NASDAQ:EXEL)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(13.48% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance (scaling revenue, expanding profitability, and robust cash generation with low leverage) and a constructive earnings call emphasizing CABOMETYX momentum plus ZANZA regulatory progress and ongoing buybacks. These positives are tempered by mixed technical momentum (negative MACD) and near-term risks highlighted on the call, including rising operating expenses, higher gross-to-net deductions, and remaining clinical/regulatory uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Exelixis's operating cash flow and free cash flow strength provides durable financial flexibility: it funds R&D and launch investments, supports aggressive share buybacks already underway, and reduces reliance on external financing. This cash power underpins multi-year commercialization and pipeline investment plans.
CABOMETYX market leadership
Leadership in RCC and meaningful traction in NET reflect entrenched prescriber adoption and a durable revenue foundation. Market-leading positioning in key TKI+IO combinations strengthens switching costs, supports pricing and formulary placement, and creates a stable base for cross-selling and incremental label expansions.
ZANZA NDA and broad pivotal program
Regulatory acceptance and a positive ITT OS signal for zanzalintinib materially expand Exelixis's commercial optionality beyond cabozantinib. A multi-trial pivotal program increases upside and partnership interest, potentially diversifying revenue streams and lowering single-product concentration risk if approvals materialize.
Negative Factors
Rising operating expenses
Sustained higher operating spend for manufacturing scale-up, launch preparation and expanded commercial teams will pressure margins and cash conversion if revenue ramps slower than planned. Over several quarters this elevated cost base can reduce free cash flow cushions and constrain discretionary spending.
Gross-to-net headwinds
A structurally higher gross‑to‑net ratio and mandated Part D discount permanently reduce realized revenue per unit sold. This lowers net top-line conversion, compresses margins and cash generation on an ongoing basis, and makes sustained margin expansion harder even with nominal sales growth.
Pipeline/regulatory dependence
Material growth and diversification depend on several upcoming clinical and regulatory outcomes. Delays, immature OS data or negative readouts would materially affect projected revenue expansion, ROI on launch investment, and the sustainability of buybacks, making business prospects sensitive to binary trial events.
Exelixis (EXEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.44B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.8
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth9.93%
EPS Growth54.33%
CountryUS
Employees1,147
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.94
Shares Outstanding259,708,680
10 Day Avg. Volume2,307,875
30 Day Avg. Volume2,452,584
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)5.48
Price to Sales (P/S)5.10
P/FCF Ratio14.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.69Price Target Upside5.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)3.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.62B
Exelixis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExelixis, Inc., an oncology-focused biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of new medicines to treat cancers in the United States. The company's products include CABOMETYX tablets for the treatment of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma who received prior anti-angiogenic therapy; and COMETRIQ capsules for the treatment of patients with progressive and metastatic medullary thyroid cancer. Its CABOMETYX and COMETRIQ are derived from cabozantinib, an inhibitor of multiple tyrosine kinases, including MET, AXL, RET, and VEGF receptors. The company also offers COTELLIC, an inhibitor of MEK as a combination regimen to treat advanced melanoma; and MINNEBRO, an oral non-steroidal selective blocker of the mineralocorticoid receptor for the treatment of hypertension in Japan. In addition, it is developing XL092, an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor that targets VEGF receptors, MET, AXL, MER, and other kinases implicated in growth and spread of cancer; XB002, an antibody-drug conjugate composed of human mAb against tissue factor (TF) for the treatment of advanced solid tumors; XL102, an orally bioavailable cyclin-dependent kinase 7 (CDK7) inhibitor for the treatment of advanced or metastatic solid tumors; and XB002 for the treatment of non-hodgkin's lymphoma. Exelixis, Inc. has research collaborations and license agreements with Ipsen Pharma SAS; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Ltd.; F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.; Redwood Bioscience, Inc.; R.P. Scherer Technologies, LLC; Catalent Pharma Solutions, Inc.; NBE Therapeutics AG; Aurigene Discovery Technologies Limited; Iconic Therapeutics, Inc.; Invenra, Inc.; StemSynergy Therapeutics, Inc.; Genentech, Inc.; Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; and Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited. The company was formerly known as Exelixis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Exelixis, Inc. in February 2000. Exelixis, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Alameda, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyExelixis generates revenue primarily through the sales of its flagship product, cabozantinib, which contributes significantly to its overall earnings. The company also engages in collaborations and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies, which provide additional revenue streams through upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on product sales. These partnerships often focus on the development and commercialization of new therapeutic candidates, enhancing Exelixis's financial stability and growth potential. Additionally, Exelixis invests in research and development, aiming to expand its portfolio of oncology therapies, which could lead to further monetization opportunities in the future.
Exelixis Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExelixis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial momentum driven by CABOMETYX (17% full-year U.S. growth; Q4 growth) and a materially positive regulatory milestone with ZANZA NDA acceptance and a 20% ITT OS benefit in STELLAR-303, supported by a broad pivotal development program and healthy cash plus aggressive share repurchases. Offsetting risks include rising operating expenses, anticipated higher gross-to-net deductions (31–32% guidance for 2026) driven by channel variability and a 2% Medicare Part D discount, and remaining regulatory/clinical uncertainty tied to immature NLM OS data and the outcomes of several pivotal trials. Overall, the positive commercial and pipeline developments and strong balance sheet outweigh the near-term financial and regulatory risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Revenue Growth for CABOMETYX
Full year 2025 U.S. cabozantinib franchise net product revenues grew ~17% to approximately $2.12 billion versus 2024. Q4 2025 U.S. cabozantinib franchise net product revenues grew ~6% year-over-year to $547 million (CABOMETYX net product revenues $544.7 million). Global cabozantinib franchise net product revenues were approximately $754 million in Q4 and $2.89 billion for full year 2025.
CABOMETYX Leadership in Key Indications
CABOMETYX remained the number-one prescribed TKI in renal cell carcinoma (RCC), the leading TKI+IO combination in first-line RCC, and the number-one oral agent in the second-line-plus neuroendocrine tumor (NET) segment. CABO U.S. net revenues for NET exceeded $100 million in 2025.
ZANZA NDA Acceptance and Positive STELLAR-303 Result (ITT)
FDA accepted the NDA for zanzalintinib (ZANZA) in combination with atezolizumab for third-line-plus colorectal cancer based on STELLAR-303. The trial met one of two dual primary endpoints, showing a 20% reduction in the risk of death in the ITT population at final analysis. PDUFA target action date set for December; top-line non-liver-metastases (NLM) OS readout expected midyear.
Expanding ZANZA Development Program with Multiple Pivotal Trials
ZANZA program includes seven ongoing/planned pivotal trials (e.g., STELLAR-316 MRD adjuvant CRC, STELLAR-311 NET vs everolimus, STELLAR-304 non-clear cell RCC vs sunitinib, STELLAR-201 meningioma). Collaboration interest (e.g., Merck LightSPARK 33 and other combos) could broaden development and commercial potential.
Strong Balance Sheet and Active Capital Return
Cash and marketable securities of approximately $1.66 billion at year-end 2025. Repurchased ~$954 million of common stock in FY2025 (retiring ~24 million shares at an average price of $39.61); ~$590 million remaining on the $750 million repurchase authorization.
Early-Stage Pipeline Progress
Four early clinical molecules (XL-309, XP-010, XB-628, XB-371) are in clinical development and progressing. Additional small molecule and ADC programs are advancing, supporting the company’s franchise-building strategy beyond CABO and ZANZA.
Negative Updates
Increasing Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses (excluding restructuring) for Q4 2025 were ~ $363 million versus $341 million in 2024, driven by higher manufacturing costs for development candidates, NDA filing fees, personnel expenses, and increased marketing spend—pressuring near-term margins.
Gross-to-Net Pressure and Channel Variability
Q4 2025 gross-to-net for the cabozantinib franchise was 28.5%; company estimates full-year 2026 gross-to-net between 31–32%. Variability driven by lower PHS/340B volume fluctuations and the designation as a specified small manufacturer requiring a 2% Medicare Part D discount in 2026—implying lower net realized revenue percentages.
Regulatory Uncertainty on ZANZA's Dual-Endpoint Readout
STELLAR-303 met the ITT OS endpoint (20% risk reduction) but the NLM (non-liver mets) OS endpoint was immature at the cutoff and remains pending. Approval risk remains until remaining OS analyses and agency review are complete (top-line NLM results expected midyear).
Competitive and Evolving Oncology Markets
RCC and CRC are highly competitive; management emphasized that overall survival data are increasingly important to change standard of care in RCC. Multiple external trials and combination strategies could challenge or pressure share if competitors post strong data.
Dependence on Multiple Upcoming Trial Readouts
Commercial and franchise expansion assumptions rely on several pivotal trials (STELLAR-316, -304, Merck collaborations, LightSPARK studies). These near- and mid-term readouts carry execution and clinical risk; negative or inconclusive outcomes could materially affect growth expectations.
Higher Near-Term Investment Needs for Commercial Build-Out
Exelixis accelerated expansion of the GI sales team in January to support NET uptake and prepare for ZANZA; this contributed to increased Q4 personnel and marketing expenses and implies continued elevated commercial spend during launch readiness.
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance and financial framing for 2026 included a full‑year gross‑to‑net estimate of 31–32% (which incorporates a 2% Medicare Part D small‑manufacturer discount in 2026) and a continued commitment to share repurchases (having bought back $954M in FY2025, retiring ~24M shares at an average $39.61, with ~$590M remaining under the $750M authorization and a stated intent to complete that program this year), while exiting FY2025 with approximately $1.66B in cash and marketable securities; key FY2025/Q4 metrics referenced alongside that guidance were Q4 total revenues ≈$599M (including cabozantinib franchise net product revenues $546.6M and CABOMETYX $544.7M), global cabo franchise revenues ≈$754M in Q4 and $2.89B for FY2025, US cabo franchise net product revenues ≈$547M in Q4 (up 6% YoY) and ≈$2.12B for FY2025 (up 17% YoY) with CABOMETYX US NET >$100M in neuroendocrine tumors in 2025, Q4 cabo gross‑to‑net of 28.5% (trade inventory 2.2 weeks on hand), Q4 royalties ≈$52.8M, Q4 operating expenses excluding restructuring ≈$363M (vs $341M prior), a Q4 tax provision ≈$8.2M (vs ~$58.8M for FY2025), GAAP net income for FY2025 ≈$244.5M ($2.00 basic, $0.88 diluted) and non‑GAAP net income ≈$259.5M ($0.97 basic, $0.94 diluted).Exelixis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong operating profile driven by meaningful revenue scale-up and sharply improved profitability, supported by robust operating cash flow and free cash flow. Balance sheet leverage remains conservative, though historical free-cash-flow volatility and some latest-period income statement inconsistencies reduce confidence in certain margin details.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled meaningfully from $988M (2020) to $2.32B (2026 annual), with the latest year showing a sharp acceleration in growth. Profitability also strengthened substantially: net margin improved from ~11–16% in earlier years to ~34% in 2026, and EBITDA margin expanded to ~38%. A key weakness is data quality/inconsistency in the latest period (e.g., gross profit and EBIT margin shown as 0), which reduces confidence in some margin-based reads despite the strong earnings trajectory.86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is conservative and stable, with debt-to-equity consistently low (~0.02–0.09) and total debt modest ($173M in 2026) relative to equity (~$2.16B). Returns improved materially, with return on equity rising to ~36% in 2026 from mid-to-high single digits earlier, reflecting better profitability. The main watch-out is equity drifting down from its 2022 level, and total assets not steadily rising, suggesting balance sheet growth is not the primary driver of improved results.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong and improving: operating cash flow rose to $884M in 2026 from ~$209M in 2020, and free cash flow also reached $884M. Cash flow quality looks solid, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in 2026 (1.0) and operating cash flow covering net income by ~2.18x, indicating earnings are well-supported by cash. Volatility is the main drawback—free cash flow declined in 2022 and 2023 before rebounding sharply in 2025–2026.89
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.32B | 2.17B | 1.83B | 1.61B | 1.43B |
| Gross Profit | 2.24B | 2.09B | 1.76B | 1.55B | 1.38B |
| EBITDA | 921.76M | 718.75M | 196.60M | 222.36M | 300.30M |
| Net Income | 782.57M | 521.27M | 207.76M | 182.28M | 231.06M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.84B | 2.95B | 2.94B | 3.07B | 2.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.06B | 1.11B | 995.30M | 1.31B | 1.47B |
| Total Debt | 173.04M | 190.82M | 189.94M | 190.17M | 51.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 683.10M | 703.49M | 678.45M | 583.06M | 405.62M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.16B | 2.24B | 2.26B | 2.49B | 2.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 844.34M | 633.79M | 170.35M | 224.16M | 336.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 884.27M | 699.97M | 333.32M | 362.61M | 400.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 350.44M | -116.78M | -26.95M | -524.41M | -42.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -969.59M | -628.81M | -546.05M | 586.00K | -14.80M |
Exelixis Technical Analysis
Positive
44.06
Price Trends
43.88
Positive
42.28
Positive
41.67
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
53.20
Neutral
71.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.45, above the 50-day MA of 43.88, and above the 200-day MA of 41.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXEL.
Exelixis Risk Analysis
Exelixis disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exelixis reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Exelixis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $20.15B | 15.82 | 29.87% | ― | 18.09% | 3563.21% | |
76 Outperform | $11.44B | 15.83 | 35.53% | ― | 9.93% | 54.33% | |
76 Outperform | $8.21B | 27.90 | 153.59% | ― | 31.19% | 59.01% | |
74 Outperform | $11.87B | 34.64 | 5.94% | ― | 12.31% | 60.21% | |
57 Neutral | $14.33B | -55.63 | ― | ― | 103.32% | 47.55% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $12.89B | -17.57 | ― | ― | 62.46% | -73.59% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
EXEL
Exelixis
44.06
5.37
13.88%
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61.73
-9.43
-13.25%
HALO
Halozyme
69.53
10.38
17.55%
INCY
Incyte
101.27
27.77
37.78%
ASND
Ascendis Pharma
233.50
76.92
49.13%
BBIO
BridgeBio Pharma
66.48
31.58
90.49%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.