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Incyte Corp (INCY)
NASDAQ:INCY
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Incyte
(NASDAQ:INCY)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
$127.00
▲(26.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
Score is driven primarily by strong financial strength (low leverage, high margins, and a major 2025 profitability/cash rebound) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The rating is moderated by profit/cash-flow volatility over time, reasonable-but-not-bargain valuation (P/E ~18.3 with no dividend), and earnings-call execution risks (PN setback, higher R&D, and the need to broaden growth beyond Jakafi).
Positive Factors
Very low leverage
Extremely low leverage and a 42% ROE give Incyte durable financial flexibility to fund R&D, absorb clinical setbacks, and pursue business development without pressing refinancing needs. This reduces bankruptcy risk and supports sustained investment in high-value programs.
Strong cash generation
Robust free cash flow growth and high operating cash conversion indicate the company can internally fund late-stage trials and commercialization. Reliable cash generation improves runway for pivotal programs and limits dependence on dilutive financing over the medium term.
Positive late-stage and regulatory progress
Pivotal frontMIND success and an impending supplemental BLA represent structural pipeline advancement into first-line DLBCL, creating a new potential recurring revenue stream and diversifying beyond current products, materially strengthening long-term commercial prospects.
Negative Factors
Early-stage program terminations
Stopping multiple early-stage programs reduces future optionality and wastes sunk R&D costs, narrowing the pipeline breadth. Fewer early assets can lengthen the time to replenish late-stage candidates, increasing medium-term growth risk if current launches underperform.
Regulatory setbacks for povorcitinib
An onerous regulatory standard forcing program termination highlights elevated regulatory risk for certain assets and suggests some mechanisms may face difficult approval pathways. This can increase development timelines, costs, and the probability of future attrition in similar programs.
Revenue concentration risk
Dependence on a single flagship product creates structural revenue concentration. Even with recent launches, material declines in Jakafi demand, pricing pressure, or competitive displacement would disproportionately impact cash flow and financing flexibility over the medium term.
Incyte (INCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.6
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth18.09%
EPS Growth3563.21%
CountryUS
Employees2,617
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.80
Shares Outstanding199,014,480
10 Day Avg. Volume1,558,415
30 Day Avg. Volume1,758,586
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)3.73
Price to Sales (P/S)3.75
P/FCF Ratio14.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$109.20Price Target Upside9.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)7.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.62B
Incyte Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionIncyte Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of proprietary therapeutics in the United States and internationally. The company offers JAKAFI, a drug for the treatment of myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera; PEMAZYRE, a fibroblast growth factor receptor kinase inhibitor that act as oncogenic drivers in various liquid and solid tumor types; and ICLUSIG, a kinase inhibitor to treat chronic myeloid leukemia and philadelphia-chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Its clinical stage products include ruxolitinib, a steroid-refractory chronic graft-versus-host-diseases (GVHD); itacitinib, which is in Phase II/III clinical trial to treat naive chronic GVHD; and pemigatinib for treating bladder cancer, cholangiocarcinoma, myeloproliferative syndrome, and tumor agnostic. In addition, the company engages in developing Parsaclisib, which is in Phase II clinical trial for follicular lymphoma, marginal zone lymphoma, and mantel cell lymphoma. Additionally, it develops Retifanlimab that is in Phase II clinical trials for MSI-high endometrial cancer, merkel cell carcinoma, and anal cancer, as well as in Phase II clinical trials for patients with non-small cell lung cancer. It has collaboration agreements with Novartis International Pharmaceutical Ltd.; Eli Lilly and Company; Agenus Inc.; Calithera Biosciences, Inc; MacroGenics, Inc.; Merus N.V.; Syros Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Innovent Biologics, Inc.; Zai Lab Limited; Cellenkos, Inc.; and Nimble Therapeutics, as well as clinical collaborations with MorphoSys AG and Xencor, Inc. to investigate the combination of tafasitamab, plamotamab, and lenalidomide in patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.
How the Company Makes MoneyIncyte generates revenue primarily through the sale of its proprietary products, with Jakafi being the most significant contributor to its income. The company also earns revenue from collaboration agreements and licensing deals with other pharmaceutical companies, which often include upfront payments, milestone payments based on the achievement of development and regulatory goals, and royalties on sales of partnered products. Additionally, Incyte's strategic partnerships enhance its research capabilities and broaden its product offerings, allowing it to tap into new markets and therapeutic areas, further diversifying its revenue streams.
Incyte Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic focus might be needed.
Analyzes revenue from different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic focus might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyIncyte Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive commercial and pipeline narrative: strong 2025 revenue growth, robust core business expansion (ex-Jakafi), multiple high-impact late-stage programs, and constructive 2026 guidance. Offsetting risks include an Opsilora PN setback requiring another study, rising R&D spending to support numerous pivotal trials, pricing/formulary tradeoffs, and the need to successfully launch and gain approvals for several products to replace Jakafi over the coming years. Overall, the positives—notably broad-based revenue growth, accelerating non-Jakafi franchises, and deepened late-stage pipeline—outweigh the challenges and execution risks outlined.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenues of $1.51B in Q4 2025 (up 28% YoY) and $5.14B for full-year 2025 (up 21% YoY). Product/net sales of $1.22B in Q4 (up 20% YoY) and $4.35B for the full year (up 20% YoY).
Core Business Expansion (ex-Jakafi)
Core business (excluding Jakafi) delivered approximately $1.26B in sales, representing a ~53% increase versus 2024, driven primarily by Opsilora, Nictimbo, and Manjovi.
Jakafi Performance and Visibility
Jakafi sales: Q4 $828M (up 7% YoY) and full-year $3.093B (up 11% YoY). Prescriptions increased 11% in Q4 and 9% for the full year. 2026 net sales guidance for Jakafi of $3.22B–$3.27B with prescriptions expected to grow high single digits.
Opsilora Momentum
Opsilora net sales Q4 $207M (up 28% YoY) and FY $678M (up 33% YoY). U.S. AD prescriptions +24% and vitiligo +15%. Pediatric AD launch already annualizing ~ $30M. International Opsilora/vitiligo sales doubled to $130M in 2025. 2026 sales guide $750M–$790M (~15% growth at midpoint).
Hematology & Oncology Surge
Hematology/oncology product sales Q4 $187M (up 121% YoY) and FY $583M (up 83% YoY). Nictimbo first-year sales ~$152M (13,000 infusions across >1,400 patients). Manjovi sales +20% driven by follicular lymphoma launch; Phase III frontline DLBCL results showed a 25% PFS improvement vs R‑CHOP.
Robust Pipeline Advancement and Regulatory Activity
Multiple late-stage moves: 14 pivotal trials across 7 assets expected underway by end of 2026; regulatory submissions filed (Jakafi XR, Opsilora, povastatinib MA in EU); tafasitamab approved in Europe and Japan and positive FRONT MIND phase III data shared.
Notable Oncology & Targeted Therapy Data
KRAS G12D inhibitor (seven34) showed 37% ORR and 78% disease control rate at planned phase 3 dose in predominantly late-line PDAC; phase 3 in first-line PDAC planned to start Q1 2026. Initiated phase 3 for TGFβ2 x PD‑1 bispecific in MSS colorectal cancer.
2026 Guidance and Financial Discipline
Full-year 2026 revenue guidance set at $4.77B–$4.94B (up 10%–13% YoY). Core ex-Jakafi sales guidance $1.57B–$1.69B (≈30% growth at midpoint). Expected FY GAAP R&D + SG&A operating expenses $3.495B–$3.675B; R&D expected ~+10% to advance late-stage programs while SG&A remains roughly flat.
Negative Updates
Opsilora Prurigo Nodularis (PN) Setback
One of two phase III PN trials missed the primary itch endpoint (one positive, one narrowly missed). FDA advised an additional efficacy study will be required; company has paused further PN development pending decision—introduces delay and incremental cost/risk.
Rising R&D and Quarterly Expense Volatility
GAAP R&D expense was $611M in Q4 (up 31% YoY) and $2.05B for the year. Ongoing R&D rose 8% YoY. Large late-stage investment profile increases near-term expense load and execution risk against a multi‑trial program.
Dependence on Future Approvals to Replace Jakafi
Jakafi growth is decelerating to mid/high single digits and faces eventual generic competition (~2028/2029 cited). Company must execute multiple launches (XR, povastatinib, tafasitamab/Manjovi expansions, etc.) to replace Jakafi revenue—execution risk is material.
Formulary / Pricing Pressure and Tradeoffs
Opsilora is taking price actions to expand formulary coverage (impacting ASP in 2026 with roll-off in 2027). Jakafi XR will likely not achieve top-tier formulary coverage initially; expected conversion rates 10%–30%—creates uncertainty on uptake timing and net pricing.
Clinical and Regulatory Uncertainties Remain
Several programs require ongoing regulatory interactions (e.g., dosing strategies for nine89 across CALR mutation types) or additional data (e.g., potential NDA acceptance, readouts for multiple pivotal trials). Binary late‑stage events could materially change outlook.
Placebo Response and Trial Design Risks
Trials in indications with variable placebo responses (e.g., HS, mild-to-moderate populations) require larger n and stricter entry criteria; company highlighted the need to control placebo effects which adds complexity and potential delays.
Opsilora PN Read-Through and Development Pause
Program pause in PN creates lost near-term opportunity and uncertainty around whether a costly third Phase III will be undertaken; internal pause signals a meaningful development setback despite positive signals on other Opsilora indications.
Company Guidance
In the call Incyte guided full‑year 2026 revenues of $4.77–$4.94 billion (up 10–13% vs. 2025), explicitly calling for Jakafi net sales of $3.22–$3.27 billion (prescriptions expected to grow high single‑digits), Opsalora net sales of $750–$790 million (roughly a 15% increase at the midpoint; U.S. pediatric launch already annualizing ≈$30 million), and hematology/oncology net sales of $800–$880 million (≈40–50% growth); core business ex‑Jakafi is guided to $1.57–$1.69 billion (≈30% growth at the midpoint). They expect total GAAP R&D plus SG&A operating expenses of $3.495–$3.675 billion in 2026 (midpoint ≈ +4% vs. 2025), with R&D up roughly 10% (≈80% of R&D focused on seven programs) and cost of goods stable at ~8–9% of net sales. For context, FY2025 total revenues were $5.14 billion (+21% YoY) and product revenues $4.35 billion (+20%); Q4 revenues were $1.51 billion (+28%) and Q4 product revenues $1.22 billion (+20%); FY2025 Jakafi sales were $3.093 billion (+11%; Q4 $828 million, +7%), Opsalora $678 million (+33%; Q4 $207 million, +28%), and hematology/oncology product sales $583 million (+83%; Q4 $187 million, +121%).Incyte Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong overall fundamentals supported by a very conservative balance sheet (extremely low leverage), very high gross margins (~93%), and a sharp 2025 profitability rebound (~25% net margin). The main risk is durability: earnings and cash conversion have been volatile across years (notably weaker 2024 and negative cash flow in 2020).Income Statement
Revenue growth has been consistently positive from 2021–2025, with a notable acceleration in 2025 (up ~6.8% vs. ~0.1% in 2024). Profitability is strong in 2025 with very high gross margins (~93%) and a solid net margin (~25%), rebounding sharply from the near-breakeven 2024 net margin (~0.8%). The main weakness is earnings volatility across the period (losses in 2020, strong profits in 2021, softer 2024, then a large rebound in 2025), which lowers confidence in durability versus steadier peers.84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with extremely low leverage (debt-to-equity consistently around ~0.7%–1.8%, and ~0.7% in 2025), providing ample financial flexibility. Equity has also expanded meaningfully versus 2024, and returns on equity are strong in 2025 (~25%), reflecting the earnings rebound. The key weakness is that profitability (and therefore returns on equity) has been inconsistent year-to-year, which can make the balance-sheet strength look less impactful during weaker profit periods.92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong in 2025, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both sharply higher and free cash flow growth solidly positive (~13%). Free cash flow broadly tracks earnings well in 2025 (free cash flow is ~96% of net income), suggesting good earnings quality. The weakness is volatility: 2024 operating cash flow was relatively low versus net income (about 20%), and both operating and free cash flow were negative in 2020, indicating cash conversion can swing materially across years.78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.14B | 4.24B | 3.70B | 3.39B | 2.99B |
| Gross Profit | 4.70B | 3.86B | 3.38B | 3.14B | 2.80B |
| EBITDA | 1.76B | 408.16M | 919.43M | 599.64M | 630.20M |
| Net Income | 1.29B | 32.62M | 597.60M | 340.66M | 948.58M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.96B | 5.44B | 6.78B | 5.84B | 4.93B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.58B | 2.16B | 3.66B | 3.24B | 2.35B |
| Total Debt | 69.43M | 43.54M | 38.29M | 41.46M | 44.82M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.80B | 2.00B | 1.59B | 1.47B | 1.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.17B | 3.45B | 5.19B | 4.37B | 3.77B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.35B | 249.07M | 449.00M | 892.11M | 568.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.41B | 335.34M | 496.49M | 969.94M | 749.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -102.61M | 157.52M | -207.68M | -78.54M | -207.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 101.04M | -2.02B | -20.03M | -794.00K | 6.18M |
Incyte Technical Analysis
Neutral
100.04
Price Trends
102.35
Negative
99.66
Positive
87.56
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.61
Positive
45.42
Neutral
48.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INCY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 100.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 101.88, below the 50-day MA of 102.35, and above the 200-day MA of 87.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for INCY.
Incyte Risk Analysis
Incyte disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Incyte reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Incyte Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $22.52B | 18.42 | 19.71% | ― | 13.50% | 17.16% | |
83 Outperform | $19.91B | 15.62 | 29.87% | ― | 18.09% | 3563.21% | |
76 Outperform | $10.66B | 14.74 | 35.53% | ― | 9.93% | 54.33% | |
74 Outperform | $11.49B | 33.53 | 5.94% | ― | 12.31% | 60.21% | |
66 Neutral | $18.01B | 19.01 | 17.65% | ― | 24.98% | 127.06% | |
57 Neutral | $14.86B | -57.68 | ― | ― | 103.32% | 47.55% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
INCY
Incyte
100.04
30.36
43.57%
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
59.74
-10.77
-15.27%
EXEL
Exelixis
41.03
2.74
7.16%
UTHR
United Therapeutics
513.82
205.23
66.51%
ASND
Ascendis Pharma
242.09
91.28
60.53%
GMAB
Genmab
29.65
6.32
27.09%
Incyte Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Incyte Board Member Hervé Hoppenot Retires
Neutral
Dec 12, 2025
On December 10, 2025, Hervé Hoppenot announced his retirement from Incyte Corporation’s Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. Hoppenot, who previously served as Chairman and CEO, had been a board member since 2014.
The most recent analyst rating on (INCY) stock is a Hold with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Incyte stock, see the INCY Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.