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Ascendis Pharma (ASND)
NASDAQ:ASND
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Ascendis Pharma
(NASDAQ:ASND)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Market Adoption
Yorvi's US launch logged 1,750 start forms from approximately 1,000 unique prescribers, indicating rapid uptake and widespread adoption.
Product Launch
The Yorvipath launch in HypoPTH is expected to be a significant driver for shares to top $200.
Revenue Growth
U.S. sales of 26M EUR were approximately double the expectations of 14M EUR, highlighting strong revenue performance.
Sales Performance
Yorvipath has shown strong sales numbers, exceeding consensus estimates by over 40% and even surpassing aggressive estimates.
Negative Factors
Product Performance
Sales for Skytrofa were below both internal and Street estimates, highlighting a potential area of concern.
Regulatory Challenges
Shifts in regulatory landscape have made management less sure about priority review for TransCon CNP.
Ascendis Pharma (ASND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)511.92K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth10.69%
EPS Growth34.71%
CountryUS
Employees1,017
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength40
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.80
Shares Outstanding60,970,566
10 Day Avg. Volume371,534
30 Day Avg. Volume511,916
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.47
Price to Book (P/B)-81.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-29.45
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$221.46Price Target Upside40.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
Ascendis Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAscendis Pharma A/S, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing therapeutics for unmet medical needs. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating patients with growth hormone deficiency (GHD). It also develops TransCon Growth Hormone (hGH) for pediatric GHD in Japan; TransCon hGH for adults with GHD; TransCon parathyroid hormone for adult hypoparathyroidism; and TransCon CNP for pediatric achondroplasia. In addition, the company develops TransCon toll like receptors 7/8 agonist for intratumoral delivery; and TransCon IL-2 ß/g for systemic delivery. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyAscendis Pharma generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary drug products. The company utilizes its TransCon technology platform to create long-acting prodrugs, which are designed to improve efficacy and reduce dosing frequency. Revenue streams include product sales, milestone payments, and royalties from commercialized products. Additionally, Ascendis engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, which can provide upfront payments and ongoing funding to support research and development activities. The company's financial performance is significantly influenced by the successful clinical development and regulatory approval of its pipeline products.
Ascendis Pharma Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
External Customers Revenue by Type
Analyzes revenue streams from different customer segments, highlighting which areas drive sales and indicating potential growth opportunities or risks based on customer diversification.
Analyzes revenue streams from different customer segments, highlighting which areas drive sales and indicating potential growth opportunities or risks based on customer diversification.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataAscendis Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -6.09%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 09, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights Ascendis Pharma's strong launch and revenue growth for YORVIPATH, alongside significant advances in their product pipeline. However, this success is tempered by increased operating expenses and ongoing challenges in securing insurance reimbursements. Overall, the sentiment is balanced with significant achievements and operational challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Launch of YORVIPATH
YORVIPATH, the first and only FDA approved treatment for hypoparathyroidism in adults, was prescribed by over 1,000 unique prescribers for more than 1,750 patients in the U.S. in its first quarter since launch.
Strong Revenue Growth
Total global YORVIPATH revenue grew to €45 million in Q1 2025 from €40 million in Q4 2024. SKYTROFA revenues reached €51 million, capturing 7% of the total U.S. growth hormone market.
Advancement of Pipeline Products
The company submitted an NDA to the FDA for TransCon CNP in March and is planning to file an MAA with EMEA in Q3 2025. TransCon CNP has shown promise in treating achondroplasia.
Positive Financial Position
As of March 31, 2025, Ascendis Pharma had cash and cash equivalents totaling €518 million, supporting continued growth and development.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Expenses
R&D costs increased to €86.6 million from €70.7 million, and SG&A expenses rose to €101 million from €66.8 million compared to the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to global commercial expansion.
Challenges with Insurance Reimbursement
There is uncertainty regarding the proportion of patients who will ultimately receive reimbursement for YORVIPATH, indicating potential hurdles in insurance negotiations.
Company Guidance
During the Ascendis Pharma First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic initiatives. For the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, YORVIPATH generated €45 million in revenue, up from €40 million in the previous quarter, with more than 1,750 patients in the U.S. receiving prescriptions from over 1,000 unique prescribers. SKYTROFA, another key product, achieved €51 million in revenue, capturing around 7% of the total U.S. growth hormone market and 43% of the long-acting segment. Ascendis anticipates YORVIPATH will significantly impact its 2025 financial profile, projecting revenue growth as market access expands in Europe. The company is also advancing its TransCon CNP pipeline, with an NDA submission to the FDA in March and an MAA filing expected with EMEA in Q3 2025. Ascendis aims to continue building on its U.S. and European market successes, with strategic plans for clinical trial expansions and regulatory filings to support its growth trajectory.Ascendis Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ascendis Pharma exhibits robust revenue growth but struggles with profitability and financial stability. Negative margins and reliance on debt pose risks. Cash flow constraints highlight the need for sustainable financing.Income Statement
Ascendis Pharma shows significant revenue growth with a Revenue Growth Rate of 36.3% from 2023 to 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a loss, with negative Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin due to substantial R&D expenses typical in biotechnology. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, indicating ongoing operating losses.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's financial structure is concerning, with negative Stockholders' Equity indicating accumulated losses. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, highlighting potential financial instability. The Equity Ratio is also negative, reflecting the company's reliance on debt financing.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow remains negative, reflecting cash outflows from operations. However, Free Cash Flow improved slightly year-over-year, though it remains negative. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is not favorable. There is a reliance on financing activities to support cash needs.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 363.64M | 266.72M | 51.17M | 7.78M | 6.95M | Gross Profit |
| 319.38M | 222.32M | 39.04M | 4.25M | 6.95M | EBIT |
| -278.76M | -455.54M | -561.81M | -451.79M | -330.62M | EBITDA |
| -290.02M | -411.17M | -556.04M | -423.67M | -328.88M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -378.08M | -481.45M | -583.19M | -383.58M | -418.95M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 559.54M | 399.44M | 735.46M | 682.06M | 718.79M | Total Assets |
| 1.18B | 825.59M | 1.09B | 1.08B | 979.79M | Total Debt |
| 856.62M | 644.26M | 508.38M | 104.96M | 91.97M | Net Debt |
| 297.07M | 252.10M | 63.61M | -341.31M | -492.54M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.29B | 971.28M | 826.39M | 201.29M | 141.08M | Stockholders Equity |
| -105.71M | -145.70M | 263.35M | 883.63M | 838.71M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -307.62M | -469.80M | -510.19M | -441.88M | -293.10M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -306.20M | -467.36M | -495.70M | -417.65M | -271.55M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 6.88M | 286.47M | 61.73M | -110.58M | -291.20M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 443.93M | 134.29M | 396.77M | 351.39M | 602.65M |
Ascendis Pharma Technical Analysis
Neutral
157.27
Price Trends
158.41
Negative
148.44
Positive
140.67
Positive
Market Momentum
0.30
Positive
47.63
Neutral
61.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASND, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 157.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 161.47, below the 50-day MA of 158.41, and above the 200-day MA of 140.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ASND.
Ascendis Pharma Risk Analysis
Ascendis Pharma disclosed 90 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ascendis Pharma reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
You may experience future dilution as a result of exercise or conversion of warrants, RSUs, PSUs and convertible notes. Q4, 2024
2.
We could be adversely affected by changes in tax laws and regulations and the interpretation thereof. Q4, 2024
Ascendis Pharma Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $11.56B | 19.23 | 30.22% | ― | 24.49% | 244.87% | |
76 Outperform | $8.15B | 66.67 | 21.52% | ― | 30.93% | 11.78% | |
75 Outperform | $6.71B | 14.44 | 147.06% | ― | 25.65% | 57.10% | |
56 Neutral | $6.03B | ― | -50.16% | ― | ― | 21.83% | |
53 Neutral | $5.14B | 3.23 | -45.01% | 2.85% | 17.55% | -0.69% | |
52 Neutral | $9.49B | ― | 357.68% | ― | 10.69% | 34.71% | |
43 Neutral | $10.35B | ― | -29.34% | ― | -38.25% | 44.29% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ASND
Ascendis Pharma
157.27
24.76
18.69%
CORT
Corcept Therapeutics
76.81
45.28
143.61%
EXEL
Exelixis
43.09
22.60
110.30%
HALO
Halozyme
54.42
11.66
27.27%
MDGL
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals
271.57
49.06
22.05%
MRNA
Moderna
26.76
-121.16
-81.91%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.