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Ascendis Pharma
(NASDAQ:ASND)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$276.00
▲(8.72% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/26/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating and free cash flow and strong commercial momentum highlighted on the earnings call (YORVIPATH growth and early YUVIWEL traction). These strengths are moderated by balance-sheet risk (high leverage and recent negative equity), mixed earnings quality with notable one-off items, and a valuation that is reasonable but not cheap; technically, the uptrend is supportive but appears somewhat extended.
Positive Factors
High gross margin & revenue growth
Very high gross margins (~88% TTM) combined with multi-year revenue step-up and Q1 €247M sales indicate attractive unit economics and scalable product pricing. Durable margins provide structural room to absorb SG&A/R&D as commercialization scales and support long-term operating‑margin improvement if volume growth persists.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage and past negative equity
A sizeable debt load (~$0.9B) and history of negative equity constrain financial flexibility. If operating margins fail to sustainably improve, debt servicing and covenant pressures could force dilutive financings or cutbacks in R&D/commercial investment, impeding long‑term growth prospects despite recent cash inflows.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margin & revenue growth
Very high gross margins (~88% TTM) combined with multi-year revenue step-up and Q1 €247M sales indicate attractive unit economics and scalable product pricing. Durable margins provide structural room to absorb SG&A/R&D as commercialization scales and support long-term operating‑margin improvement if volume growth persists.
Read all positive factors
Ascendis Pharma Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Commercial Products Revenue
Shows the income generated from products that have reached the market, indicating the company's ability to convert R&D efforts into profitable offerings and its success in capturing market share.
Shows the income generated from products that have reached the market, indicating the company's ability to convert R&D efforts into profitable offerings and its success in capturing market share.
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The Fly
The FlyAscendis Pharma (ASND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.66B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)764.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.8
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth155.14%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,017
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.19
Shares Outstanding62,376,846
10 Day Avg. Volume488,910
30 Day Avg. Volume764,152
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.13
Price to Book (P/B)-67.58
Price to Sales (P/S)15.90
P/FCF Ratio252.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$310.93Price Target Upside22.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)14.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.35B
Ascendis Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ascendis Pharma A/S is a biopharmaceutical enterprise dedicated to advancing therapeutic solutions for critical medical conditions that currently lack effective treatments. Its commercialized offering is SKYTROFA, a therapy prescribed for individu...
How the Company Makes Money
Ascendis Pharma generates revenue primarily from product sales of its marketed therapies, recorded as net product revenue from selling finished pharmaceutical products to wholesalers, specialty distributors, and/or specialty pharmacies (with reven...
Ascendis Pharma Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong commercial and financial achievements—rapid revenue generation (EUR 247M Q1), robust YORVIPATH adoption (>1,000 new U.S. patients in the quarter; >6,300 cumulative), YUVIWEL FDA approval with early prescriptions, solid non-IFRS profitability and a healthy cash position augmented by a USD 187.5M PRV sale—supporting a growth and commercialization narrative. Offsetting items include one-time EUR 15M Q1 headwinds, elevated noncash finance expense (EUR 63M), GAAP net profit driven by a large deferred tax asset, rising SG&A, an R&D decline influenced by an inventory write-up, and the discontinuation of an internal oncology program. Overall, positives around product approvals, commercial traction, pipeline data (notably the COACH combo), and balance sheet actions outweigh the listed lowlights, though some one-time accounting and legal/operational uncertainties temper near-term clarity.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Revenue and Commercial Scale
Total Q1 2026 revenue of EUR 247 million (including EUR 6 million collaboration revenue); YORVIPATH global revenue EUR 197 million and SKYTROFA EUR 44 million, supporting rapid revenue growth and commercial scale.
Negative Updates
One-Time Q1 Revenue Headwinds (~EUR 15 million)
Q1 YORVIPATH revenue was reduced by approximately EUR 15 million due to two one-time items: temporary U.S. patients supported on free drug because of reimbursement disruption and a single-country Europe Direct write-down related to an early access program.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 Revenue and Commercial Scale
Total Q1 2026 revenue of EUR 247 million (including EUR 6 million collaboration revenue); YORVIPATH global revenue EUR 197 million and SKYTROFA EUR 44 million, supporting rapid revenue growth and commercial scale.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that YORVIPATH should drive strong sequential growth in Q2 as the ~EUR15m combined Q1 one‑time headwinds reverse — noting Q1 YORVIPATH sales of EUR197m, >1,000 new U.S. patients in Q1 and >6,300 patients prescribed through March by >2,700 HCPs (enrollment trends continued into April, with ~80% upstream coverage and >50% approvals within 8 weeks); SKYTROFA (EUR44m in Q1, ~7% market share) is expected to deliver stable revenue for the year, and YUVIWEL’s early uptake (>60 prescriptions by >35 HCPs) is encouraging with more color on the Q2 call and an EU decision expected in Q4’26. On the financial outlook, management said revenue scaling should produce meaningful operating‑margin improvement in 2026 and beyond; Q1 results included total revenue EUR247m (EUR6m collaboration), operating profit EUR25m (10% IFRS margin), non‑IFRS operating profit EUR55m (22% margin), non‑IFRS net profit EUR18m (EUR0.27/share), R&D EUR59m and SG&A EUR145m, and a quarter‑end cash balance of EUR573m (after EUR60m buybacks); they also completed redemption of convertible notes in May and announced a PRV sale for USD187.5m.Ascendis Pharma Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 867.51M | 691.71M | 363.64M | 266.72M | 51.17M | 7.78M |
| Gross Profit | 764.89M | 588.53M | 319.38M | 222.32M | 39.04M | 4.25M |
| EBITDA | 12.37M | -109.80M | -290.02M | -411.17M | -529.18M | -364.64M |
| Net Income | 506.60M | -219.03M | -378.08M | -481.45M | -583.19M | -383.58M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.01B | 1.30B | 1.18B | 825.59M | 1.09B | 1.08B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 573.42M | 615.78M | 559.54M | 399.44M | 735.46M | 682.06M |
| Total Debt | 897.60M | 871.41M | 856.62M | 743.06M | 617.57M | 209.92M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.52B | 1.46B | 1.29B | 971.28M | 826.39M | 201.29M |
| Stockholders Equity | 488.48M | -162.75M | -105.71M | -145.70M | 263.35M | 883.63M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 42.11M | 43.62M | -307.62M | -469.80M | -510.19M | -441.88M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 57.63M | 51.77M | -306.20M | -467.36M | -495.70M | -417.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.55M | -8.15M | 6.88M | 286.47M | 61.73M | -110.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.75M | 34.89M | 443.93M | 134.29M | 396.77M | 351.39M |
Ascendis Pharma Technical Analysis
Negative
253.86
Price Trends
244.62
Negative
238.18
Positive
226.22
Positive
Market Momentum
2.97
Positive
49.52
Neutral
13.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASND, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 253.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 259.92, above the 50-day MA of 244.62, and above the 200-day MA of 226.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASND.
Ascendis Pharma Risk Analysis
Ascendis Pharma disclosed 93 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ascendis Pharma reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ascendis Pharma Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $14.07B | 17.00 | 40.21% | ― | 3.33% | 38.64% | |
77 Outperform | $22.32B | 17.69 | 19.24% | ― | 5.87% | 8.18% | |
71 Outperform | $11.71B | 42.87 | 4.41% | ― | 12.53% | -49.09% | |
62 Neutral | $16.10B | -21.36 | 36.00% | ― | 355.17% | -6.09% | |
61 Neutral | $15.66B | 25.84 | -5641.90% | ― | 155.14% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $11.37B | -36.25 | -56.65% | ― | 149.04% | -0.28% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ASND
Ascendis Pharma
243.91
59.76
32.45%
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UTHR
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517.71
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BBIO
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80.09
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67.73%
Ascendis Pharma Corporate Events
Ascendis Pharma Unveils Two-Year Pivotal Trial Data for TransCon CNP in Children With Achondroplasia
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Ascendis Pharma reported new 104-week radiographic data from its completed pivotal ApproaCH trial of once-weekly TransCon CNP in children aged 2–11 years with achondroplasia. The study showed continued improvements in lower...
Ascendis Pharma Closes Warrant Exercise Window, Expands Share Capital
Jun 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Ascendis Pharma A/S closed an exercise window for outstanding warrants convertible into ordinary shares, resulting in the issuance of 177,267 new shares. The share capital increase of nominal DKK 177,267 raised cash at an average...
Ascendis Pharma Monetizes FDA Priority Review Voucher for $187.5 Million
Jun 17, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Ascendis Pharma A/S completed the sale of its Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher to an undisclosed buyer for $187.5 million in cash, before transaction-related expenses. The voucher was originally granted by the U.S. ...
Ascendis Pharma Posts Strong 3.5-Year Phase 3 Data for TransCon PTH in Hypoparathyroidism
Jun 15, 2026
On June 13, 2026, Ascendis Pharma reported 3.5-year data from its completed Phase 3 PaTHway trial of TransCon PTH (palopegteriparatide) in 82 adults with hypoparathyroidism, showing sustained efficacy and safety. The study, which included a 26-wee...
Ascendis Pharma Reports Five-Year TransCon PTH Data Showing Sustained Benefits in Hypoparathyroidism
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Ascendis Pharma reported five-year data from its Phase 2 PaTH Forward trial showing that long-term treatment with TransCon PTH (palopegteriparatide) delivered sustained efficacy and safety in adults with hypoparathyroidism. Over ...
Ascendis Pharma Grants New Employee Warrants as Part of Updated Equity Incentive Plan
Jun 10, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Ascendis Pharma’s board granted 27,030 new employee warrants, each exercisable for one ordinary share at an exercise price of $213.23, matching the closing share price on the grant date. The company amended its Articles of A...
Ascendis Pharma Issues New Employee Warrants, Keeps Large Pool Available for Future Grants
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Ascendis Pharma A/S granted 31,250 new employee warrants, each exercisable into one ordinary share at an exercise price of $237.65, equal to the closing share price on the grant date. The company amended its Articles of Associatio...
Ascendis Pharma Swings to €629 Million Q1 2026 Profit on Strong Revenue Growth
May 7, 2026
Ascendis Pharma A/S on May 7, 2026 filed a Form 6-K reporting unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, along with management’s discussion and analysis. The company posted a sharp tur...
Ascendis Pharma Q1 2026 Results Highlight YORVIPATH Growth and U.S. Launch of YUVIWEL
May 7, 2026
Ascendis Pharma reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of €247 million, driven largely by €197 million in YORVIPATH sales and €44 million from SKYTROFA, with strong U.S. uptake and expanding reimbursement in 35 countries as of March...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.