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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)
NASDAQ:MDGL
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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) AI Stock Analysis

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MDGL

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals

(NASDAQ:MDGL)

Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals presents a mixed investment case. Strong revenue growth and a successful product launch boost its appeal, but profitability remains a challenge due to high operational costs. The stable balance sheet offers some reassurance, though ongoing cash burn and external financing reliance are risks. Technical indicators suggest a neutral stance with potential for growth, while the valuation reflects the high-risk nature typical of biotech firms.
Positive Factors
Market Expansion
The EU is expected to be a meaningful growth driver in the years ahead for MDGL.
Regulatory Approval
Rezdiffra is now the first and only approved MASH therapy in Europe with labeling that does not specify a biopsy requirement for treatment.
Sales Performance
Madrigal's Rezdiffra has consistently outperformed Street expectations since its launch.
Negative Factors
Growth Concerns
Analysts believe the EU is unlikely to be a major growth driver for Madrigal, at least in the near term, due to slower European launch dynamics and pricing constraints.
Market Competition
Some investors are concerned about Rezdiffra losing market share to the more visible and popularized Wegovy treatment.
Pricing Constraints
Cost-conscious single payer systems in the EU may not reimburse Rezdiffra near its current annual Wholesale Acquisition Cost of approximately $49k.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMadrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutic candidates for the treatment of cardiovascular, metabolic, and liver diseases. Its lead product candidate is resmetirom, a liver-directed selective thyroid hormone receptor-ß agonist, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The company also develops MGL-3745, a backup compound to resmetirom. It has research, development, and commercialization agreement with Hoffmann-La Roche. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is headquartered in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyMadrigal Pharmaceuticals primarily makes money through the development and commercialization of its proprietary drug candidates. The company aims to generate revenue by advancing its lead compound, resmetirom, through clinical trials and obtaining regulatory approval for commercialization. Once approved, Madrigal would earn revenue through product sales, potentially entering into licensing agreements or partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies to expand market reach and distribution. The company's financial success is also supported by strategic collaborations and partnerships that may provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties. Madrigal's revenue model is highly dependent on the successful clinical development and regulatory approval of its drug candidates.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements such as strong revenue growth, patent extension, and international expansion plans. However, there were challenges like increased expenses and expected choppy gross to net dynamics. Overall, the positive developments and strategic advancements outweigh the challenges faced.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Rezdiffra’s net sales reached $213 million, up 55% quarter-over-quarter, annualizing at over $800 million.
Significant Patent Extension
New U.S. patent for Rezdiffra extends protection to February 2045, providing a significant long-term strategic advantage.
High Prescriber Penetration
80% of top 6,000 targets have prescribed Rezdiffra, with significant progress in expanding to a broader base of 14,000 target prescribers.
International Expansion Plans
Preparations underway for Rezdiffra launch in Germany in the second half of this year, following a positive CHMP opinion.
Pipeline Expansion with Oral GLP-1
Secured SYH2086 oral GLP-1 asset for $120 million upfront, with plans to enter the clinic in the first half of next year.
Strong Cash Position
Ended the quarter with $802 million in cash and secured an additional $500 million credit facility with Blue Owl Capital.
Negative Updates
Increased SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses rose to $196.9 million, primarily due to increased commercial launch activities for Rezdiffra.
Choppy Gross to Net Dynamics
Gross to net expected to be choppy early in launch, with anticipated increases in the second half of the year.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals provided guidance highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives. Rezdiffra, their leading product, achieved a quarterly run rate exceeding $200 million, with net sales totaling $212.8 million, marking a 55% increase from the previous quarter. The company reported over 23,000 patients actively on Rezdiffra, reflecting substantial growth from over 17,000 in the first quarter. Additionally, physician penetration reached 80% among their top 6,000 targets, with 60% penetration in their broader 14,000 target prescriber base. Madrigal also emphasized the impact of their newly issued U.S. patent, extending protection for Rezdiffra until February 2045, which is expected to significantly enhance its long-term value. Looking forward, the company is preparing for international expansion, starting with Germany, and exploring new therapeutic combinations, such as a promising oral GLP-1, to further solidify their leadership in the MASH market.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is experiencing significant revenue growth with the introduction of Rezdiffra, but profitability remains a challenge due to negative EBIT and net income margins. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, yet ongoing cash burn due to negative free cash flow and reliance on external financing are concerns.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is experiencing significant revenue growth, as evidenced by the jump from zero revenue in prior years to $317 million in TTM. However, the company is not yet profitable, with negative EBIT and net income margins. This indicates high operational costs relative to revenue, which is a common challenge in the biotechnology industry during the R&D phase.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, highlighting financial stability. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a solid asset base funded by stockholders' equity. However, continuous losses can erode this stability over time.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis indicates negative free cash flow, which is typical for biotech firms focusing on research and development. The operating cash flow remains negative, suggesting ongoing cash burn. While financing activities have been a source of cash, reliance on external funding can be a concern if not managed properly.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue515.55M180.13M0.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit494.95M172.80M-527.00K-467.00K-405.00K-471.00K
EBITDA-266.74M-450.13M-360.39M-290.92M-241.44M-201.77M
Net Income-281.90M-465.89M-373.63M-295.35M-241.85M-202.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.02B1.04B640.55M362.57M273.33M287.00M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments802.02M926.25M634.13M358.77M270.35M284.15M
Total Debt123.95M119.57M117.19M49.89M797.00K786.00K
Total Liabilities319.40M287.86M235.21M165.18M77.22M47.02M
Stockholders Equity695.98M754.38M405.33M197.39M196.11M239.97M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-308.39M-457.03M-325.71M-225.07M-184.13M-157.90M
Operating Cash Flow-307.41M-455.57M-324.23M-224.86M-183.92M-157.56M
Investing Cash Flow-38.60M-274.39M-502.52M206.69M-5.05M159.78M
Financing Cash Flow37.61M735.06M595.12M313.45M171.24M5.09M

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price431.21
Price Trends
50DMA
344.20
Positive
100DMA
319.68
Positive
200DMA
321.40
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
28.98
Negative
RSI
75.36
Negative
STOCH
81.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 431.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 396.77, above the 50-day MA of 344.20, and above the 200-day MA of 321.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 28.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.36 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDGL.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$8.56B16.75179.14%34.97%71.10%
69
Neutral
$7.52B63.4921.42%25.71%4.48%
61
Neutral
$8.46B1.93-15.84%-85.32%-111.82%
58
Neutral
$9.56B35.68%7.62%-55.29%
56
Neutral
$9.76B-36.30%3421.98%49.62%
52
Neutral
$7.39B-46.61%-100.00%-23.49%
51
Neutral
$7.91B-0.36-41.70%2.23%23.45%-1.86%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MDGL
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals
431.21
187.32
76.81%
CORT
Corcept Therapeutics
69.37
34.99
101.77%
HALO
Halozyme
73.40
14.19
23.97%
BBIO
BridgeBio Pharma
51.83
21.13
68.83%
RVMD
Revolution Medicines
38.95
-2.89
-6.91%
ROIV
Roivant Sciences
12.57
0.27
2.20%

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Announces Leadership Transition
Neutral
Apr 17, 2025

On April 16, 2025, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals announced that Dr. Rebecca Taub will transition from her role as Chief Medical Officer and President of Research and Development to a Senior Scientific and Medical Advisor role effective April 21, 2025. Dr. Taub will continue to support the company’s metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis programs and remain on the Board of Directors. She will receive her 2025 base salary and be eligible for a performance-based bonus. Additionally, Dr. Taub entered into a Severance and Change of Control Agreement, entitling her to severance benefits under certain conditions, including a continuation of her salary and health benefits, should her employment be terminated without cause or for good reason.

Spark’s Take on MDGL Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, MDGL is a Neutral.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals’ overall score reflects significant challenges in profitability and cash flow generation, offset by strong product launch and positive technical indicators. The company’s strategic progress and strong financial position are promising, but valuation concerns remain due to ongoing losses.

To see Spark’s full report on MDGL stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Expands Board with New Appointment
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025

On March 9, 2025, Fred Craves announced his resignation from Madrigal Pharmaceuticals’ Board of Directors, effective July 1, 2025, without any disagreements with the company. Subsequently, the Board expanded to include Jackie Fouse, Ph.D., an experienced biotech executive, who will serve on the Audit and Nominating and Governance Committees. This change reflects Madrigal’s commitment to leadership in the MASH sector, with plans to drive the launch of Rezdiffra, expand geographically, and advance their clinical program.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 04, 2025