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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL)
NASDAQ:MDGL
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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ:MDGL)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$528.00
▲(6.48% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by ongoing unprofitability and negative free cash flow despite strong revenue growth and gross margins. Technicals are a meaningful positive with a strong uptrend and solid momentum. Earnings-call updates reinforce strong launch traction and strategic progress, while valuation remains pressured due to losses and the absence of an earnings-based support.
Positive Factors
Product Launch Success
The successful launch of Rezdiffra with significant sales and patient adoption underscores Madrigal's ability to penetrate the market effectively, indicating strong future revenue potential.
Regulatory Approval
Securing conditional marketing authorization in Europe opens a significant new market, potentially boosting revenue and enhancing Madrigal's competitive position in the MASH treatment space.
Strong Financial Position
A robust cash position provides Madrigal with the financial flexibility to support ongoing R&D, commercial efforts, and potential European expansion without immediate reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Continued losses and high operational costs relative to revenue highlight the difficulty in achieving profitability, which may affect long-term financial sustainability and investor confidence.
Increased Operational Expenses
Rising SG&A expenses due to commercial launch activities and headcount increases could pressure margins and delay the path to profitability, impacting cash flow and financial health.
Uncertainty in European Strategy
Uncertainties in the European market strategy could hinder effective market penetration and revenue growth, posing risks to the company's expansion plans and overall market success.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)299.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.30
Revenue Growth864.21%
EPS Growth48.12%
CountryUS
Employees528
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.08
Shares Outstanding22,711,420
10 Day Avg. Volume360,922
30 Day Avg. Volume299,039
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.47
Price to Book (P/B)8.70
Price to Sales (P/S)36.44
P/FCF Ratio-14.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$636.22Price Target Upside28.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.44B
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMadrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutic candidates for the treatment of cardiovascular, metabolic, and liver diseases. Its lead product candidate is resmetirom, a liver-directed selective thyroid hormone receptor-ß agonist, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The company also develops MGL-3745, a backup compound to resmetirom. It has research, development, and commercialization agreement with Hoffmann-La Roche. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is headquartered in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyMadrigal Pharmaceuticals primarily makes money through the development and commercialization of its proprietary drug candidates. The company aims to generate revenue by advancing its lead compound, resmetirom, through clinical trials and obtaining regulatory approval for commercialization. Once approved, Madrigal would earn revenue through product sales, potentially entering into licensing agreements or partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies to expand market reach and distribution. The company's financial success is also supported by strategic collaborations and partnerships that may provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties. Madrigal's revenue model is highly dependent on the successful clinical development and regulatory approval of its drug candidates.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a strong quarter for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, driven by the successful launch of Rezdiffra and robust financial health. However, increased operating expenses and ongoing challenges with payer contracting highlight areas of concern. Additionally, competitive pressures from other entrants in the MASH market could impact future growth. Overall, the sentiment is cautiously optimistic.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Launch of Rezdiffra
Rezdiffra's net sales for the third quarter were $287 million, up 35% quarter-over-quarter, with over 29,500 patients treated and more than 10,000 healthcare providers prescribing the drug.
Patent Extension and Global Expansion
Rezdiffra's U.S. patent is now listed in the orange book, extending its value until 2045. Additionally, the drug has launched in Germany following European approval.
Pipeline Advancements
Progress on the Phase III MAESTRO-NASH outcomes trial for compensated MASH cirrhosis, with new data expected. The company is also advancing a combination strategy with a new oral GLP-1.
Strong Financial Position
Madrigal ended the third quarter with $1.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities, despite a one-time $117 million R&D expense.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Expenses
R&D expenses increased to $174 million from $68.7 million year-over-year, primarily due to a one-time $117 million expense for the oral GLP-1 licensing. SG&A expenses also increased to $209.1 million from $107.6 million.
Challenges with Payer Contracting
Despite overall progress, there are still ongoing discussions with payers, and some contracts are not finalized, with anticipation of increased gross to net impact in 2026.
Pending Competitive Market Dynamics
Emerging competition from GLP-1s, particularly in the MASH market, poses potential challenges. Despite strong performance, the market is evolving with new entrants.
Company Guidance
During Madrigal Pharmaceuticals' third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company shared significant guidance and metrics reflecting its strong performance and strategic progress. Rezdiffra, a key product for Madrigal, achieved net sales of $287 million, marking a 35% increase quarter-over-quarter, with sales annualizing at over $1 billion in its sixth quarter since launch. The company reported more than 29,500 patients on Rezdiffra, up from over 23,000 in the previous quarter, and over 10,000 healthcare providers have prescribed it. Madrigal's payer contracting strategy for 2026 is advancing well, with expectations of broad first-line access and no step edit requirements, aiming to finalize contracts covering the vast majority of commercial lives by year-end. The gross to net impact is expected to reach the midpoint of the 20-30% range in Q4 2025 and the high 30% range in 2026. Additionally, the company is expanding its pipeline with the advancement of its Phase III MAESTRO-NASH outcomes trial and the acquisition of a new oral GLP-1, targeting long-term growth and leadership in the MASH market.Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is experiencing significant revenue growth with the introduction of Rezdiffra, but profitability remains a challenge due to negative EBIT and net income margins. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, yet ongoing cash burn due to negative free cash flow and reliance on external financing are concerns.Income Statement
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals is experiencing significant revenue growth, as evidenced by the jump from zero revenue in prior years to $317 million in TTM. However, the company is not yet profitable, with negative EBIT and net income margins. This indicates high operational costs relative to revenue, which is a common challenge in the biotechnology industry during the R&D phase.46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, highlighting financial stability. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a solid asset base funded by stockholders' equity. However, continuous losses can erode this stability over time.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates negative free cash flow, which is typical for biotech firms focusing on research and development. The operating cash flow remains negative, suggesting ongoing cash burn. While financing activities have been a source of cash, reliance on external funding can be a concern if not managed properly.38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 740.64M | 180.13M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 705.50M | 173.90M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -471.00K |
| EBITDA | -270.14M | -450.13M | -360.39M | -290.92M | -241.44M | -201.77M |
| Net Income | -289.13M | -465.89M | -373.63M | -295.35M | -241.85M | -202.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.36B | 1.04B | 640.55M | 362.57M | 273.33M | 287.00M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.11B | 926.25M | 634.13M | 358.77M | 270.35M | 284.15M |
| Total Debt | 346.40M | 119.57M | 117.19M | 49.89M | 797.00K | 786.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 736.73M | 287.86M | 235.21M | 165.18M | 77.22M | 47.02M |
| Stockholders Equity | 625.73M | 754.38M | 405.33M | 197.39M | 196.11M | 239.97M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -161.63M | -457.03M | -325.71M | -225.07M | -184.13M | -157.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -160.58M | -455.57M | -324.23M | -224.86M | -183.92M | -157.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -43.21M | -274.39M | -502.52M | 206.69M | -5.05M | 159.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 266.80M | 735.06M | 595.12M | 313.45M | 171.24M | 5.09M |
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Neutral
495.88
Price Trends
552.23
Negative
492.72
Positive
401.25
Positive
Market Momentum
-11.54
Positive
34.52
Neutral
7.75
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDGL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 495.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 563.99, below the 50-day MA of 552.23, and above the 200-day MA of 401.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -11.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.75 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MDGL.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $12.13B | 19.13 | 30.56% | ― | 9.93% | 54.33% | |
59 Neutral | $11.47B | -38.12 | -41.22% | ― | 864.21% | 48.12% | |
59 Neutral | $16.56B | -42.16 | -14.73% | ― | -83.82% | -109.22% | |
56 Neutral | $12.77B | -45.12 | -39.99% | ― | 20.39% | 34.00% | |
54 Neutral | $15.01B | -18.21 | ― | ― | 62.46% | -73.59% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $13.28B | -50.63 | ― | ― | 103.32% | 47.55% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MDGL
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals
495.88
223.09
81.78%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.