McDonald's (MCD)
NYSE:MCD
Top Page
McDonald's
(NYSE:MCD)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$369.00
▲(20.14% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and cash generation, reinforced by positive technical momentum and upbeat 2026 guidance for unit growth and margin expansion. The main offsets are balance-sheet risk (negative equity and high debt) and a relatively rich valuation (P/E 27.4), with near-term headwinds (weather, China macro, higher interest expense and CapEx) moderating the upside.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & Margin Resilience
Sustained industry-leading margins indicate durable pricing power, operational efficiency and strong unit economics. High margins support reinvestment, dividend payouts and buybacks, and provide a cushion against cyclical revenue dips over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage & Negative Equity
Negative equity and high absolute debt raise financial vulnerability: less accounting cushion and greater interest sensitivity. In a downturn or rising-rate environment this constrains strategic flexibility, increases refinancing risk, and limits optionality for large M&A or aggressive buybacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & Margin Resilience
Sustained industry-leading margins indicate durable pricing power, operational efficiency and strong unit economics. High margins support reinvestment, dividend payouts and buybacks, and provide a cushion against cyclical revenue dips over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
McDonald's (MCD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$218.19B
Dividend Yield2.31%
Average Volume (3M)3.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.5
Beta (1Y)0.28
Revenue Growth1.26%
EPS Growth2.87%
CountryUS
Employees150,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.12
Shares Outstanding710,398,600
10 Day Avg. Volume3,516,249
30 Day Avg. Volume3,236,101
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.30
Price to Book (P/B)-121.81
Price to Sales (P/S)8.11
P/FCF Ratio30.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$349.48Price Target Upside13.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)13.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.75B
McDonald's Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States and internationally. Its restaurants offer hamburgers and cheeseburgers, chicken sandwiches and nuggets, wraps, fries, salads, oatmeal, shakes, desserts, su...
How the Company Makes Money
McDonald's generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of food and beverages at its restaurants. The company's revenue model is structured around both company-operated and franchised locations. In franchised restaurants, Mc...
McDonald's Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Comparable Sales Growth
Measures the increase or decrease in sales at existing locations, providing insight into the company's ability to grow sales without expanding its footprint. It reflects customer demand and operational efficiency.
Measures the increase or decrease in sales at existing locations, providing insight into the company's ability to grow sales without expanding its footprint. It reflects customer demand and operational efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMcDonald's Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational momentum (robust comps, guest growth, record marketing activations), aggressive unit expansion, meaningful digital/loyalty progress, and solid margins — while acknowledging manageable headwinds (weather-related Q1 drag, regional macro pressure especially China, margin pressures earlier in the year, and ongoing investments and execution risks). The positive growth, margin resilience in Q4, and clear multi-year development and digital targets substantially outweigh the listed challenges.Positive Updates
Strong System-Wide Sales Growth
System-wide sales of nearly $140 billion in 2025, up 5.5% in constant currency for the full year, reflecting accelerating new restaurant openings and broad-based comp strength.
Negative Updates
Challenging Industry Backdrop and Macro Pressure
Company noted a generally challenging QSR industry environment in 2025 and expects many markets to remain challenging in 2026; China faces macroeconomic pressures though McDonald's maintained share.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong System-Wide Sales Growth
System-wide sales of nearly $140 billion in 2025, up 5.5% in constant currency for the full year, reflecting accelerating new restaurant openings and broad-based comp strength.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
McDonald’s 2026 guidance forecasts an acceleration in restaurant growth and disciplined financials: targeting ~2,600 gross openings (≈2,100 net additions, ~4.5% unit growth) — including ~750 gross in U.S. & IOM and >1,800 in IDL (about 1,000 in China) — with net restaurant expansion contributing roughly 2.5% to system-wide sales; adjusted operating margin is expected to be in the mid‑ to high‑40% range (expanding from 46.9% in 2025), G&A about 2.2% of system-wide sales, interest expense up ~4–6%, an effective tax rate of ~21–23% (quarterly variability possible), a full‑year FX tailwind to EPS of ~$0.20–$0.30, CapEx of $3.7–$3.9B (vs. $3.4B in 2025), and a targeted net income to free cash flow conversion in the low‑ to mid‑80% range (84% in 2025); the company remains on track for 50,000 restaurants by end‑2027.McDonald's Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 26.89B | 25.92B | 25.50B | 23.18B | 23.22B |
| Gross Profit | 15.44B | 14.71B | 14.56B | 13.21B | 12.58B |
| EBITDA | 14.64B | 13.95B | 13.86B | 10.90B | 12.18B |
| Net Income | 8.56B | 8.22B | 8.47B | 6.18B | 7.55B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 59.52B | 55.18B | 56.15B | 50.44B | 53.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 774.00M | 1.08B | 4.58B | 2.58B | 4.71B |
| Total Debt | 54.81B | 51.95B | 53.09B | 48.70B | 49.35B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.30B | 58.98B | 60.85B | 56.44B | 58.46B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.79B | -3.80B | -4.71B | -6.00B | -4.60B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.19B | 6.67B | 7.25B | 5.49B | 7.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.55B | 9.45B | 9.61B | 7.39B | 9.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.82B | -5.35B | -3.18B | -2.68B | -2.17B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.13B | -7.50B | -4.37B | -6.58B | -5.60B |
McDonald's Technical Analysis
Negative
307.14
Price Trends
320.48
Negative
313.29
Negative
305.69
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.59
Positive
36.51
Neutral
40.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 307.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 316.30, below the 50-day MA of 320.48, and above the 200-day MA of 305.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MCD.
McDonald's Risk Analysis
McDonald's disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. McDonald's reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
McDonald's Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $218.19B | 25.46 | -336.89% | 2.31% | 1.26% | 2.87% | |
67 Neutral | $43.19B | 32.22 | 47.00% | ― | 7.31% | 5.26% | |
67 Neutral | $12.47B | 23.81 | -15.28% | 1.63% | 3.92% | 4.98% | |
65 Neutral | $43.15B | 26.98 | -20.57% | 1.84% | 11.60% | -4.33% | |
64 Neutral | $34.91B | 50.42 | 23.08% | 3.60% | 16.82% | -29.91% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $1.31B | 9.79 | 140.58% | 8.15% | -0.21% | 0.16% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MCD
McDonald's
307.14
14.03
4.79%
CMG
Chipotle
33.16
-13.51
-28.95%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
370.82
-58.48
-13.62%
WEN
Wendy's
6.88
-5.52
-44.53%
YUM
Yum! Brands
156.09
13.90
9.77%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
76.58
16.81
28.12%
McDonald's Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
McDonald’s Adds Ford CEO Farley to Board
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 4, 2026, McDonald’s Corporation expanded its Board of Directors from 11 to 12 members and elected James D. Farley, Jr., President and CEO of Ford Motor Company, as a new independent director. Farley will receive standard non-empl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.