Chipotle (CMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $41.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 21.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 7.31%
• EPS Growth: 5.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 130,504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 1,322,278,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 31,548,499
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,787,511
• PEG Ratio: 2.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 22.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 54.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.86
• 1Y Price Target: $47.38
• Price Target Upside: 48.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 28
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $11.93B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $35.00 ▲(9.48% Upside)

Chipotle's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, tempered by bearish technical indicators and valuation concerns. While the company is expanding and innovating, macroeconomic challenges and cost pressures present significant risks.

Positive Factors

Digital Sales Growth

The significant contribution of digital sales indicates a strong adaptation to consumer preferences, enhancing convenience and potentially increasing customer loyalty over time.

International Expansion

Successful international expansion, particularly in Canada and Europe, diversifies revenue streams and reduces reliance on the domestic market, positioning Chipotle for long-term growth.

New Restaurant Openings

The opening of new restaurants, especially with Chipotlanes, enhances market presence and accessibility, supporting sustained revenue growth and customer reach.

Negative Factors

Margin Pressure

Declining margins indicate rising operational costs, which could pressure profitability if not managed effectively, impacting long-term financial health.

Comparable Sales Decline

A decline in comparable sales suggests challenges in maintaining customer traffic and spending, which could hinder revenue growth if trends persist.

Challenging Consumer Environment

Persistent macroeconomic pressures and consumer volatility may limit growth opportunities and require strategic adjustments to maintain market position.

Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is a fast-casual restaurant chain based in the United States that specializes in Mexican cuisine, primarily offering made-to-order burritos, tacos, bowls, and salads. Founded in 1993, Chipotle operates in the fast-casual dining sector, focusing on high-quality ingredients and sustainable sourcing practices. The company emphasizes fresh produce, responsibly raised meats, and a commitment to food integrity, serving customers in over 2,800 locations across the U.S., Canada, and Europe.

How the Company Makes Money

Chipotle generates revenue primarily through the sale of its food and beverages in its restaurants. The company employs a straightforward revenue model based on direct sales to consumers. Key revenue streams include in-store dining, takeout, and delivery services, with an increasing emphasis on digital sales through its mobile app and website. Chipotle has developed partnerships with third-party delivery services such as DoorDash and Uber Eats, which expand its reach to customers preferring delivery options. Furthermore, the company has implemented loyalty programs that encourage repeat business and enhance customer retention. Chipotle's focus on menu innovation, such as the introduction of new items and promotions, also contributes to its earnings by attracting both new and returning customers.

Chipotle Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Chipotle's financial statements reflect strong revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and effective cash flow management. The company shows robust financial health with a high return on equity and solid cash flow generation, despite some reliance on debt.

Income Statement

Chipotle has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue increase of 18.13% and consistent improvement in gross profit margins over the years, reaching 37.34% in the latest TTM period. The net profit margin is healthy at 13.32%, indicating effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement shows a positive growth trajectory and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.35 in the TTM period, which is manageable but indicates reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is impressive at 43.16%, showcasing strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 34.71%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. While the company is leveraging debt effectively, maintaining a close watch on debt levels is advisable.

Cash Flow

Chipotle's cash flow statement highlights a solid free cash flow growth rate of 7.32% in the TTM period, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.85, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.70 suggests good conversion of earnings into cash. The cash flow position is strong, supporting future growth and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.79B	11.31B	9.87B	8.63B	7.55B	5.98B
Gross Profit	3.03B	3.02B	2.59B	2.06B	1.71B	1.04B
EBITDA	2.35B	2.32B	1.95B	1.50B	1.10B	574.79M
Net Income	1.54B	1.53B	1.23B	899.10M	652.98M	355.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.28B	9.20B	8.04B	6.93B	6.65B	5.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.42B	1.42B	1.30B	899.14M	1.08B	951.60M
Total Debt	4.98B	4.54B	4.05B	3.73B	3.52B	3.16B
Total Liabilities	6.06B	5.55B	4.98B	4.56B	4.36B	3.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.22B	3.66B	3.06B	2.37B	2.30B	2.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.57B	1.51B	1.22B	844.01M	839.61M	290.50M
Operating Cash Flow	2.21B	2.11B	1.78B	1.32B	1.28B	663.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-143.37M	-837.53M	-946.01M	-830.03M	-522.04M	-432.72M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.07B	-1.07B	-660.65M	-929.40M	-548.61M	-104.85M

Chipotle Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 31.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.91, below the 50-day MA of 39.72, and below the 200-day MA of 48.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.01 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMG.

Chipotle Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TXRH	74 Outperform	$10.78B	24.74	32.28%	1.60%	14.59%	18.98%
CAVA	69 Neutral	$5.99B	43.59	19.84%	―	23.93%	153.50%
MCD	65 Neutral	$213.52B	25.63	―	2.28%	1.17%	2.09%
CMG	64 Neutral	$41.97B	28.17	44.96%	―	7.31%	5.26%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
YUM	60 Neutral	$41.51B	29.14	―	1.87%	11.60%	-4.33%
DPZ	58 Neutral	$13.75B	23.78	―	1.68%	3.92%	4.98%

Chipotle Corporate Events

Chipotle’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

Chipotle Mexican Grill’s recent earnings call painted a mixed picture of growth and challenges. While the company celebrated sales growth and successful international expansion, it also acknowledged significant hurdles posed by macroeconomic pressures and rising costs, which have led to a decline in comparable sales and margins.

Chipotle Reports Revenue Growth Amid Expansion Efforts

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a prominent player in the fast-casual dining sector, known for its commitment to serving responsibly sourced, real food without artificial additives, across its over 3,900 restaurants worldwide.

Chipotle Announces $500M Share Repurchase Authorization

On September 15, 2025, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had authorized an additional $500 million for share repurchases, following a decision made on September 3, 2025. This early announcement allows the company to opportunistically repurchase shares before filing its third quarter Form 10-Q. With this new authorization, approximately $750 million is available for share repurchases, continuing a program in place since 2008, which has no expiration date and can be modified or discontinued at any time.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.

Chipotle Appoints New Principal Accounting Officer

On September 4, 2025, Chipotle appointed Matthew Bush as the principal accounting officer, following his role as Vice President, Controller since August 25, 2025. Bush, who has been with Chipotle for a decade, has significantly contributed to the company’s financial reporting and internal audit functions. His promotion includes a salary increase and stock incentives, aligning with Chipotle’s compensation policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.

Chipotle’s Chief Officer Jamie McConnell Resigns

On August 25, 2025, Jamie McConnell resigned from her position as Chief Accounting and Administrative Officer at Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. to pursue a new opportunity. Her departure was not due to any disagreements or issues related to the company’s accounting, financial reporting, or operational policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Hold with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.