Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
NYSE:CMG
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Chipotle
(NYSE:CMG)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(6.97% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/05/26
The score is primarily supported by strong historical financial performance and solid cash generation, but is held back by signs of margin pressure and a more cautious near-term outlook from management. Technicals are moderately constructive but not fully supportive given the stock remains below the 200-day average, while valuation is a drag due to a higher P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Multi-year revenue & margin expansion
Sustained top-line growth and a meaningful expansion in net and operating margins indicate durable unit economics, pricing power, and operational leverage. That structural improvement supports reinvestment, capacity expansion and resilience through economic cycles over the medium term.
Negative Factors
2025 gross margin step-down
A material gross margin decline suggests sustained input cost or mix pressures that pricing may not fully offset. If higher commodity, labor or tariff costs persist while pricing is modest, restaurant-level profit expansion may be capped and leverage on new sales reduced over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue & margin expansion
Sustained top-line growth and a meaningful expansion in net and operating margins indicate durable unit economics, pricing power, and operational leverage. That structural improvement supports reinvestment, capacity expansion and resilience through economic cycles over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Chipotle (CMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$44.40B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)15.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.2
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth7.31%
EPS Growth5.26%
CountryUS
Employees130,504
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding1,302,423,000
10 Day Avg. Volume11,809,006
30 Day Avg. Volume15,034,371
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio12.03
Price to Book (P/B)17.48
Price to Sales (P/S)4.15
P/FCF Ratio34.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.04Price Target Upside30.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering27
EPS Forecast (FY)1.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.95B
Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Fr...
How the Company Makes Money
Chipotle makes money primarily by selling food and beverages directly to customers through its company-owned restaurants, with revenue recognized at the point of sale for in-restaurant and digital orders. Its largest revenue stream is restaurant s...
Chipotle Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurants
Tracks the number of Chipotle locations, indicating expansion strategy and market penetration, which are key to revenue growth and brand presence.
Tracks the number of Chipotle locations, indicating expansion strategy and market penetration, which are key to revenue growth and brand presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChipotle Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced meaningful operational and strategic progress (record unit growth, digital & loyalty momentum, equipment rollout, menu innovation, strong buybacks and cash position) against tangible near-term headwinds (comparable sales declines, margin pressure as pricing lags inflation, cost and tariff pressures, elevated marketing/labor costs and conservative guidance). Management presented a credible multi-year growth roadmap and early evidence of traction on initiatives, while acknowledging near-term margin and comp risks.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and EPS Growth
Fiscal 2025 revenue grew 5.4% year-over-year and adjusted diluted EPS increased 4.5% to $1.17, reflecting overall progress versus the prior year.
Negative Updates
Comparable Sales Decline
Full-year comparable restaurant sales declined 1.7% YoY and Q4 comps declined 2.5%, with guidance for FY2026 comps roughly flat and Q1 underlying comps embedded around -1% to -2% (including an estimated ~100 bps impact from winter storm closures).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue and EPS Growth
Fiscal 2025 revenue grew 5.4% year-over-year and adjusted diluted EPS increased 4.5% to $1.17, reflecting overall progress versus the prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Chipotle guided to full‑year 2026 comparable restaurant sales of about flat, with Q1 comps modeled around -1% to -2% (including ~100 bps of impact from the multistate winter storm); management expects Q1 pricing to contribute ~70 bps (full‑year pricing ~1–2%) versus inflation nearer 3–4% (full‑year cost‑of‑sales inflation mid‑single‑digits), implying roughly a ~150 bp full‑year margin headwind versus 2025; operational line items called out: Q1 cost of sales mid‑30% (Q4 was 30.2%), labor in the high‑25% range (Q4 25.5%), other operating costs mid‑15% (Q4 15.5%), marketing mid‑3% in Q1 (Q4 3.5%), G&A non‑GAAP ≈$203M in Q1 (Q4 non‑GAAP $162M), depreciation ~3% of sales (Q4 3.1%), and an underlying effective tax rate of ~24–26% for 2026; digital sales were 37.2% in Q4, rewards exceeded 21M active members (≈30% of sales through rewards but only ~20% of in‑restaurant transactions), rollout targets include ~2,000 restaurants with the high‑efficiency equipment by year‑end (350 installed today) and ~350 new restaurants planned for 2026, and the balance sheet remains strong with ~$1.3B cash, no debt, and $1.7B remaining on the buyback authorization after $742M repurchased in Q4 ($2.4B for FY25).Chipotle Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.93B | 11.31B | 9.87B | 8.63B | 7.55B |
| Gross Profit | 3.03B | 3.02B | 2.59B | 2.06B | 1.71B |
| EBITDA | 2.37B | 2.32B | 1.95B | 1.50B | 1.10B |
| Net Income | 1.54B | 1.53B | 1.23B | 899.10M | 652.98M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.99B | 9.20B | 8.04B | 6.93B | 6.65B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.05B | 1.42B | 1.30B | 899.14M | 1.08B |
| Total Debt | 9.85B | 4.54B | 4.05B | 3.73B | 3.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.16B | 5.55B | 4.98B | 4.56B | 4.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.83B | 3.66B | 3.06B | 2.37B | 2.30B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.45B | 1.51B | 1.22B | 844.01M | 839.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.11B | 2.11B | 1.78B | 1.32B | 1.28B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -35.08M | -837.53M | -946.01M | -830.03M | -522.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.47B | -1.07B | -660.65M | -929.40M | -548.61M |
Chipotle Technical Analysis
Neutral
34.59
Price Trends
35.54
Negative
35.98
Negative
39.54
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.48
Negative
51.56
Neutral
73.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 34.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.96, below the 50-day MA of 35.54, and below the 200-day MA of 39.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CMG.
Chipotle Risk Analysis
Chipotle disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chipotle reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Chipotle Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $217.15B | 25.46 | -336.89% | 2.31% | 1.26% | 2.87% | |
71 Outperform | $22.04B | 20.24 | 50.71% | 3.06% | 8.61% | 9.39% | |
67 Neutral | $44.40B | 32.22 | 47.00% | ― | 7.31% | 5.26% | |
65 Neutral | $44.72B | 26.98 | -20.57% | 1.84% | 11.60% | -4.33% | |
64 Neutral | $34.82B | 50.42 | 23.08% | 3.60% | 16.82% | -29.91% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
51 Neutral | $110.06B | 83.00 | -17.22% | 2.88% | 2.80% | -50.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CMG
Chipotle
34.59
-14.87
-30.06%
DRI
Darden Restaurants
191.89
-1.46
-0.76%
MCD
McDonald's
304.51
-4.41
-1.43%
SBUX
Starbucks
97.48
14.29
17.17%
YUM
Yum! Brands
161.43
18.19
12.70%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
77.51
16.79
27.66%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.