Chipotle (CMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $72.66B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 46.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 12.57%
• EPS Growth: 21.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 130,504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 1,347,364,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,489,935
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,783,285
• PEG Ratio: 16.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 20.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 47.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 24.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.21
• 1Y Price Target: $60.96
• Price Target Upside: 16.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 27

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(16.46%Upside)

Chipotle's strong financial performance is a key driver of its stock score, supported by robust revenue growth, profitability, and cash flow management. While technical analysis and valuation suggest caution due to mixed signals and high valuation, strategic expansions and digital sales growth from the earnings call provide a positive outlook. The new credit agreement further strengthens financial stability.

Positive Factors

Growth Strategy

Chipotle is considered one of the best positioned companies to deliver growth despite an increasingly challenging economic environment.

Marketing Initiatives

Chipotle management highlights a solid consumer response to increased marketing efforts and the launch of Adobe Ranch dipping sauce.

Traffic Performance

Improved traffic in the second half of the year is expected to drive multiple expansion for Chipotle.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

Chipotle is expected to miss on earnings per share and EBITDA compared to street estimates.

Margin Performance

Q3 guidance indicates a restaurant-level margin below the street estimate.

Sales Performance

A projected decline in comparable sales is expected, which aligns with company guidance but is lower than market consensus.

Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Chipotle generates revenue primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its restaurants. The company operates a direct-to-consumer model, with the majority of its income derived from in-store sales. In addition, Chipotle has expanded its revenue streams through digital sales, which include orders placed via its app and website, as well as through third-party delivery services. Strategic initiatives such as loyalty programs, promotions, and limited-time menu offerings also contribute to sales growth. Key factors influencing Chipotle's earnings include its ability to maintain supply chain efficiency, manage food costs, and expand its restaurant footprint while enhancing customer engagement through digital channels.

Chipotle Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Chipotle shows robust financial performance with significant revenue growth and improved margins indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency. The balance sheet is stable with prudent leverage, though equity levels need monitoring. Strong cash flow generation supports sustainability.

Income Statement

Chipotle has shown impressive revenue growth with a notable increase from $7.55 billion in 2021 to $11.49 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, reflecting strong market demand. The Gross Profit Margin has improved significantly, indicating efficient cost management. Meanwhile, the Net Profit Margin also reflects strong profitability. Consistent growth in EBIT and EBITDA margins highlights operational efficiency. Overall, the company demonstrates robust growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable financial structure with an improving Equity Ratio, indicating a strong asset base backed by equity. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio remains moderate, suggesting a balanced approach to leverage. However, the slight decline in Stockholders' Equity from 2024 to 2025 requires monitoring. The Return on Equity (ROE) has been strong, reflecting effective utilization of equity capital.

Cash Flow

Chipotle's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capability, with a consistent increase in Free Cash Flow over the years. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio suggests that earnings are well-supported by cash flows. A solid Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio highlights efficient cash management. The positive trajectory in Free Cash Flow Growth Rate signifies effective reinvestment and operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.49B	11.31B	9.87B	8.63B	7.55B	5.98B
Gross Profit	3.03B	3.02B	2.59B	2.06B	1.71B	1.04B
EBITDA	2.36B	2.32B	1.95B	1.50B	1.10B	574.79M
Net Income	1.56B	1.53B	1.23B	899.10M	652.98M	355.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.04B	9.20B	8.04B	6.93B	6.65B	5.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.41B	1.42B	1.30B	899.14M	1.08B	951.60M
Total Debt	4.63B	4.54B	4.05B	3.73B	3.52B	3.16B
Total Liabilities	5.55B	5.55B	4.98B	4.56B	4.36B	3.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.49B	3.66B	3.06B	2.37B	2.30B	2.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.49B	1.51B	1.22B	844.01M	839.61M	290.50M
Operating Cash Flow	2.09B	2.11B	1.78B	1.32B	1.28B	663.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-530.41M	-837.53M	-946.01M	-830.03M	-522.04M	-432.72M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.56B	-1.07B	-660.65M	-929.40M	-548.61M	-104.85M

Chipotle Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 52.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.05, below the 50-day MA of 52.80, and below the 200-day MA of 55.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMG.

Chipotle Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAVA	79 Outperform	$10.10B	72.93	21.73%	―	32.11%	378.62%
CMG	74 Outperform	$72.66B	46.09	45.57%	―	12.57%	21.42%
DPZ	74 Outperform	$15.96B	27.05	-14.74%	1.67%	3.65%	5.71%
MCD	70 Outperform	$212.41B	26.21	-216.57%	2.33%	-0.22%	-3.83%
TXRH	70 Outperform	$12.21B	28.38	33.55%	1.40%	15.09%	31.24%
YUM	67 Neutral	$41.41B	29.70	-19.43%	1.86%	10.09%	-11.50%
Sector *	66 Neutral	€19.43B	8.79	7.83%	3.75%	0.45%	-40.36%

Chipotle Corporate Events

Chipotle Secures New $500M Revolving Credit Agreement

On June 24, 2025, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. entered into a new $500 million senior, unsecured Revolving Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., which will mature on June 24, 2030. This agreement replaces a prior credit agreement set to expire in 2026, and includes financial covenants and limitations on certain corporate activities, positioning Chipotle for continued financial flexibility and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Hold with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.

Chipotle Appoints Jason Kidd as New COO

On May 6, 2025, Chipotle announced the appointment of Jason Kidd as Chief Operating Officer, effective May 19, 2025. Kidd, who brings extensive experience from roles at Taco Bell and other major retailers, will oversee operations of Chipotle’s nearly 3,800 restaurants. This strategic hire aims to enhance the company’s operational efficiency and guest experience. Concurrently, Jack Hartung, President and Chief Strategy Officer, will step down on June 1, 2025, transitioning to a senior advisor role until his retirement in March 2026. Hartung’s departure marks the end of a significant era, as he played a pivotal role in Chipotle’s expansion and strategic planning. His transition is part of a broader leadership restructuring, with Curt Garner and Chris Brandt taking on expanded roles to ensure continuity and drive the company’s strategic initiatives.