Chipotle (CMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $70.43B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 14.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 45.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 12.57%
• EPS Growth: 21.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 130,504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 1,347,364,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,507,638
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,914,097
• PEG Ratio: 15.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 19.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 45.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.75
• 1Y Price Target: $58.23
• Price Target Upside: 11.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 28

Chipotle's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives. The company's revenue growth and profitability are significant strengths, while technical indicators and high valuation suggest some caution. The earnings call highlights both current challenges and future potential, supporting a positive but cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Long-term growth confidence

Analyst values Chipotle on its steady state earnings power, with the expectation of reaching a restaurant margin peak of 27% and generating $7.5 billion in EBITDA.

Marketing and advertising initiatives

Increased advertising spend is expected to bolster revenue, as it has been effective for other operators in the current environment.

Product and menu innovation

Potential upside is seen from new sides or dips, as 50% of orders have guacamole, and queso added approximately 2 percentage points to the average check at launch.

Negative Factors

Macroeconomic challenges

Broad-based consumer softness set in from February into April, affecting the company's performance.

Rising costs and competition

Rising avocado, chicken, and pepper prices, fierce competition among restaurants, and higher wage and store location costs are likely to remain headwinds.

Same-store sales performance

Chipotle posted 1Q25 same-store sales of (0.4%), well below the estimate and consensus, indicating a possible share loss to competitors.

Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is a prominent player in the fast-casual dining sector, primarily operating in the United States with a growing international presence. The company is renowned for its commitment to serving 'Food with Integrity,' emphasizing the use of high-quality, responsibly sourced ingredients. Chipotle specializes in a customizable menu featuring burritos, tacos, bowls, and salads, focusing on fresh, sustainably raised produce and meats. As an innovator in the fast-casual space, Chipotle distinguishes itself with its open kitchen format and emphasis on transparency and sustainability.

How the Company Makes Money

Chipotle generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Mexican-inspired cuisine at its restaurants. The company's key revenue streams include in-store dining, takeout, and digital sales through its website and mobile app, which have become increasingly significant in recent years. Chipotle's revenue model is bolstered by its efficient operations, high customer turnover, and strategic locations. The company has also developed ancillary revenue channels through catering services and branded merchandise. While Chipotle does not rely heavily on franchising, its growth strategy focuses on expanding its number of company-owned stores and enhancing customer experience through technological innovations and loyalty programs.

Chipotle Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Chipotle's financial performance is strong, with impressive revenue growth and profitability. The income statement reflects robust growth driven by operational efficiency. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, though equity levels need monitoring. Cash flow generation is solid, indicating effective cash management.

Income Statement

Chipotle has shown impressive revenue growth with a notable increase from $7.55 billion in 2021 to $11.49 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, reflecting strong market demand. The Gross Profit Margin has improved significantly, indicating efficient cost management. Meanwhile, the Net Profit Margin also reflects strong profitability. Consistent growth in EBIT and EBITDA margins highlights operational efficiency. Overall, the company demonstrates robust growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable financial structure with an improving Equity Ratio, indicating a strong asset base backed by equity. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio remains moderate, suggesting a balanced approach to leverage. However, the slight decline in Stockholders' Equity from 2024 to 2025 requires monitoring. The Return on Equity (ROE) has been strong, reflecting effective utilization of equity capital.

Cash Flow

Chipotle's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capability, with a consistent increase in Free Cash Flow over the years. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio suggests that earnings are well-supported by cash flows. A solid Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio highlights efficient cash management. The positive trajectory in Free Cash Flow Growth Rate signifies effective reinvestment and operational efficiency.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.49B	11.31B	9.87B	8.63B	7.55B	5.98B
	Gross Profit
4.28B	3.02B	2.59B	2.06B	1.71B	1.04B
	EBIT
1.95B	1.92B	1.56B	1.16B	804.94M	290.16M
	EBITDA
2.37B	2.32B	1.95B	1.50B	1.10B	574.79M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.56B	1.53B	1.23B	899.10M	652.98M	355.77M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.41B	1.42B	1.30B	899.14M	1.08B	951.60M
	Total Assets
9.04B	9.20B	8.04B	6.93B	6.65B	5.98B
	Total Debt
4.63B	4.54B	4.05B	3.73B	3.52B	3.16B
	Net Debt
3.91B	3.79B	3.49B	3.35B	2.70B	2.55B
	Total Liabilities
5.55B	5.55B	4.98B	4.56B	4.36B	3.96B
	Stockholders Equity
3.49B	3.66B	3.06B	2.37B	2.30B	2.02B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.49B	1.51B	1.22B	844.01M	839.61M	290.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.09B	2.11B	1.78B	1.32B	1.28B	663.85M
	Investing Cash Flow
-530.41M	-837.53M	-946.01M	-830.03M	-522.04M	-432.72M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.56B	-1.07B	-660.65M	-929.40M	-548.61M	-104.85M

Chipotle Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 52.27
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 52.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.95, above the 50-day MA of 49.89, and below the 200-day MA of 55.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CMG.

Chipotle Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CMG	78 Outperform	$70.43B	45.93	45.57%	―	12.57%	21.42%
DPZ	77 Outperform	$17.04B	28.38	-14.74%	1.26%	4.28%	13.76%
MCD	76 Outperform	$229.69B	28.11	-216.57%	2.14%	-0.22%	-3.83%
TXRH	76 Outperform	$12.84B	29.75	33.55%	1.30%	15.09%	31.24%
CAVA	76 Outperform	$10.42B	74.56	21.73%	―	32.11%	378.62%
YUM	68 Neutral	$41.60B	29.52	-19.43%	1.82%	10.09%	-11.50%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.98B	11.38	2.86%	3.90%	2.64%	-22.07%

Chipotle Corporate Events

Chipotle Appoints Jason Kidd as New COO

On May 6, 2025, Chipotle announced the appointment of Jason Kidd as Chief Operating Officer, effective May 19, 2025. Kidd, who brings extensive experience from roles at Taco Bell and other major retailers, will oversee operations of Chipotle’s nearly 3,800 restaurants. This strategic hire aims to enhance the company’s operational efficiency and guest experience. Concurrently, Jack Hartung, President and Chief Strategy Officer, will step down on June 1, 2025, transitioning to a senior advisor role until his retirement in March 2026. Hartung’s departure marks the end of a significant era, as he played a pivotal role in Chipotle’s expansion and strategic planning. His transition is part of a broader leadership restructuring, with Curt Garner and Chris Brandt taking on expanded roles to ensure continuity and drive the company’s strategic initiatives.

Spark’s Take on CMG Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CMG is a Outperform.

Chipotle’s strong financial performance is a significant factor, with robust revenue and cash flow growth. However, technical analysis and valuation suggest caution, as the stock may be overvalued with mixed market momentum. The earnings call highlights some challenges but also potential for long-term growth through digital sales and expansion.

To see Spark’s full report on CMG stock, click here.