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Chipotle (CMG)
NYSE:CMG
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Chipotle (CMG) AI Stock Analysis

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CMG

Chipotle

(NYSE:CMG)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(11.53% Upside)
Chipotle's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic initiatives, tempered by technical challenges and valuation concerns. The company's robust revenue growth and operational efficiency are significant strengths, while mixed technical indicators and high valuation present potential risks. The recent earnings call highlights both opportunities and challenges, with a focus on digital engagement and international expansion to drive future growth.
Positive Factors
Analyst Recommendation
Analyst upgrades shares of CMG to Overweight from Neutral, suggesting a positive risk-reward scenario with potential for significant upside.
Management and Operations
Operations initiatives on track, with slicers fully deployed and the high-efficiency kitchen test on track, potentially leading to a 3-year rollout.
Market Sentiment
The market has already priced in a lot of the bad news, with shares down approximately 31% year-to-date, suggesting limited downside risk.
Negative Factors
Same-Store Sales Growth
There is a challenge for CMG in maintaining strong same-store sales growth while also expanding restaurant-level margins significantly.
Sector Demand
Some questions about near-term demand have returned for the sector due to recent weakness in high-frequency data.
Top-Line Performance
There is concern about the potential risk to CMG's top-line performance in the latter half of the year, with estimates already below consensus.

Chipotle (CMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyChipotle generates revenue primarily through the sale of its food and beverages in its restaurants. The company employs a straightforward revenue model based on direct sales to consumers. Key revenue streams include in-store dining, takeout, and delivery services, with an increasing emphasis on digital sales through its mobile app and website. Chipotle has developed partnerships with third-party delivery services such as DoorDash and Uber Eats, which expand its reach to customers preferring delivery options. Furthermore, the company has implemented loyalty programs that encourage repeat business and enhance customer retention. Chipotle's focus on menu innovation, such as the introduction of new items and promotions, also contributes to its earnings by attracting both new and returning customers.

Chipotle Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Restaurants
Restaurants
Tracks the number of Chipotle locations, indicating expansion strategy and market penetration, which are key to revenue growth and brand presence.
Chart InsightsChipotle's restaurant count has shown consistent growth, with a notable acceleration in 2025. Despite a 4% decline in comparable sales, the company is aggressively expanding, opening 61 new locations in Q2 2025, including many with Chipotlanes. This expansion, coupled with strong digital engagement, suggests a strategic pivot to drive future growth despite current margin pressures and a challenging consumer environment. The focus on international markets, particularly in Canada and the Middle East, indicates a diversification strategy to mitigate domestic market volatility.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Chipotle Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Chipotle's earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with some positive aspects such as sales growth, digital engagement, and international expansion, but also significant challenges including declining comparable sales, margin pressure, and a difficult consumer environment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sales Growth
Sales for the second quarter grew 3% year-over-year to reach $3.1 billion.
Digital Sales Contribution
Digital sales accounted for 35.5% of total sales.
New Restaurant Openings
Chipotle opened 61 new restaurants, including 47 Chipotlanes.
International Expansion
Strong growth and positive feedback in Canada and Europe, with particular success in the Middle East where revenue surpassed the average unit volume in the US.
Supply Chain Efficiencies
Cost of sales efficiencies more than offset inflation, benefiting from lower-than-expected avocado prices and other supply chain initiatives.
Successful Marketing Initiatives
Summer of Extras drove a 14% year-over-year increase in enrollments with 5 million participants.
Negative Updates
Comparable Sales Decline
Comparable sales declined by 4% in the quarter.
Margin Pressure
Restaurant-level margin was 27.4%, a decline of 150 basis points year-over-year.
Earnings Per Share Decline
Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.33, a decline of 3% over last year.
Challenging Consumer Environment
The company experienced volatility in consumer trends and anticipates comparable sales to be about flat for the full year.
Increase in Operating Costs
Other operating costs were 14%, an increase of 110 basis points from last year, driven by higher marketing costs and lower volumes.
Company Guidance
During Chipotle Mexican Grill's second quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 3% increase in sales, reaching $3.1 billion, despite a 4% decline in comparable sales. Digital sales accounted for 35.5% of total sales, and the restaurant-level margin fell by 150 basis points year-over-year to 27.4%. Adjusted diluted EPS decreased by 3% to $0.33 compared to the previous year. The company opened 61 new restaurants, including 47 Chipotlanes, and noted a slowdown in May that was later offset by summer marketing initiatives, leading to positive comp and transaction trends by the end of the quarter. Chipotle plans to keep comparable sales about flat for the full year, with a focus on maintaining its $10 value proposition for meals like the Chicken Bowl or Burrito. Their strategy includes enhancing operations, expanding digital engagement, and introducing new menu items to drive growth and maintain their competitive edge.

Chipotle Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Chipotle's financial health is strong, evidenced by a 17.3% revenue growth and robust profit margins. The balance sheet shows a balanced leverage position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36, and a strong return on equity of 43.7%. Cash flow is solid with a free cash flow growth of 6.9%.
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Chipotle has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 17.3% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a 14.7% increase from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin improved to 37.3% TTM, and the net profit margin is steady at 13.3%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 16.6% and 20.3% TTM respectively, indicating efficient operations and strong profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36 TTM, implying a balanced leverage position. The return on equity is strong at 43.7% TTM, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio is 38%, reflecting a relatively low proportion of equity financing in the capital structure.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Chipotle's cash flow performance is solid, with a free cash flow growth of 6.9% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.36 TTM, indicating strong cash generation from core operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.95 TTM also supports the company's ability to transform earnings into free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue11.58B11.31B9.87B8.63B7.55B5.98B
Gross Profit4.32B3.02B2.59B2.06B1.71B1.04B
EBITDA2.35B2.32B1.95B1.50B1.10B574.79M
Net Income1.54B1.53B1.23B899.10M652.98M355.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.27B9.20B8.04B6.93B6.65B5.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.55B1.42B1.30B899.14M1.08B951.60M
Total Debt4.78B4.54B4.05B3.73B3.52B3.16B
Total Liabilities5.74B5.55B4.98B4.56B4.36B3.96B
Stockholders Equity3.53B3.66B3.06B2.37B2.30B2.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.47B1.51B1.22B844.01M839.61M290.50M
Operating Cash Flow2.09B2.11B1.78B1.32B1.28B663.85M
Investing Cash Flow-192.21M-837.53M-946.01M-830.03M-522.04M-432.72M
Financing Cash Flow-1.86B-1.07B-660.65M-929.40M-548.61M-104.85M

Chipotle Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price42.14
Price Trends
50DMA
48.55
Negative
100DMA
49.52
Negative
200DMA
53.15
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.42
Negative
RSI
34.35
Neutral
STOCH
17.49
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.81, below the 50-day MA of 48.55, and below the 200-day MA of 53.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMG.

Chipotle Risk Analysis

Chipotle disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chipotle reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Chipotle Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$11.47B26.3232.28%1.54%14.59%18.98%
73
Outperform
$15.56B26.61-14.74%1.42%3.65%5.71%
70
Outperform
$223.74B26.86-216.57%2.26%1.17%2.09%
67
Neutral
$40.79B29.03-19.43%1.91%11.30%-7.82%
67
Neutral
$7.83B56.9020.90%28.21%227.11%
67
Neutral
$56.50B37.2542.59%8.57%10.72%
61
Neutral
$17.67B14.34-5.25%3.04%1.27%-14.70%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CMG
Chipotle
42.14
-11.38
-21.26%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
458.30
60.72
15.27%
MCD
McDonald's
313.54
32.95
11.74%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
172.55
8.23
5.01%
YUM
Yum! Brands
146.97
15.40
11.70%
CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
67.55
-44.37
-39.64%

Chipotle Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Chipotle’s Chief Officer Jamie McConnell Resigns
Neutral
Aug 26, 2025

On August 25, 2025, Jamie McConnell resigned from her position as Chief Accounting and Administrative Officer at Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. to pursue a new opportunity. Her departure was not due to any disagreements or issues related to the company’s accounting, financial reporting, or operational policies.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Chipotle Announces $400 Million Stock Buyback Plan
Neutral
Jul 23, 2025

On July 23, 2025, Chipotle announced a $400 million stock repurchase authorization, supplementing previous buyback plans. The company reported a 3.0% revenue increase to $3.1 billion for Q2 2025, despite a 4.0% drop in comparable restaurant sales. The opening of 61 new restaurants, including 47 with Chipotlanes, contributed to the revenue growth. However, operating and restaurant-level margins decreased, and net income fell slightly compared to the previous year. Chipotle is optimistic about future growth, focusing on marketing initiatives, menu innovations, and expanding its rewards program.

Private Placements and Financing
Chipotle Secures New $500M Revolving Credit Agreement
Positive
Jun 27, 2025

On June 24, 2025, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. entered into a new $500 million senior, unsecured Revolving Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., which will mature on June 24, 2030. This agreement replaces a prior credit agreement set to expire in 2026, and includes financial covenants and limitations on certain corporate activities, positioning Chipotle for continued financial flexibility and stability.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025