Chipotle (CMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $48.92B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 21.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 7.31%
• EPS Growth: 5.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 130,504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 1,322,278,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,520,120
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,736,304
• PEG Ratio: 2.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 22.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 54.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.86
• 1Y Price Target: $45.39
• Price Target Upside: 22.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 25
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $11.90B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $37.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)

Chipotle's strong financial performance is the primary driver of its overall score, supported by effective cash flow management and profitability. However, technical analysis and valuation indicate potential risks, with the stock trading below key moving averages and a high P/E ratio. Earnings call insights and corporate events provide a mixed outlook, with growth initiatives countered by macroeconomic challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent sales growth and significant digital sales contribution highlight Chipotle's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and enhance its market position.

International Expansion

Expanding into international markets like the Middle East and Asia positions Chipotle for long-term growth by tapping into new customer bases and diversifying revenue streams.

Share Repurchase Program

The expanded share repurchase program demonstrates Chipotle's commitment to returning value to shareholders and reflects confidence in its financial health and future prospects.

Negative Factors

Decline in Comparable Sales

The minimal increase in comparable sales suggests challenges in maintaining customer frequency, which could impact long-term revenue growth if not addressed.

Rising Costs

Rising input costs due to inflation and tariffs could pressure margins, affecting profitability and necessitating strategic cost management to sustain financial performance.

Decreased Restaurant-Level Margin

The decline in restaurant-level margins indicates potential operational inefficiencies or cost pressures, which could impact profitability if not effectively managed.

Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is a fast-casual restaurant chain based in the United States, specializing in Mexican-inspired cuisine. Founded in 1993, Chipotle operates in the food service sector and is known for its customizable burritos, tacos, and bowls made with high-quality ingredients. The company emphasizes sustainable sourcing and food integrity, offering a menu that caters to various dietary preferences, including vegetarian and vegan options. With a focus on delivering a unique dining experience, Chipotle has expanded its footprint across North America and continues to innovate in menu offerings and technology integration.

How the Company Makes Money

Chipotle generates revenue primarily through its restaurant sales, which include dine-in, takeout, and online orders. The company operates a significant number of locations across the U.S. and internationally, and each restaurant contributes to its overall revenue through the sale of food and beverages. Key revenue streams include the sale of core menu items such as burritos, bowls, and salads, as well as drinks and sides. Additionally, Chipotle has embraced digital ordering and delivery services, which have become increasingly important revenue channels, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company has formed partnerships with third-party delivery platforms to enhance its reach and convenience for customers. Chipotle also benefits from a loyalty program that encourages repeat business and increases customer retention. Overall, the combination of in-store sales, digital innovations, and strategic partnerships drives the company's financial performance.

Chipotle Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Chipotle's financial statements reflect strong revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and effective cash flow management. The company shows robust financial health with a high return on equity and solid cash flow generation, despite some reliance on debt.

Income Statement

Chipotle has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue increase of 18.13% and consistent improvement in gross profit margins over the years, reaching 37.34% in the latest TTM period. The net profit margin is healthy at 13.32%, indicating effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement shows a positive growth trajectory and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.35 in the TTM period, which is manageable but indicates reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is impressive at 43.16%, showcasing strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 34.71%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. While the company is leveraging debt effectively, maintaining a close watch on debt levels is advisable.

Cash Flow

Chipotle's cash flow statement highlights a solid free cash flow growth rate of 7.32% in the TTM period, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.85, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.70 suggests good conversion of earnings into cash. The cash flow position is strong, supporting future growth and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.79B	11.31B	9.87B	8.63B	7.55B	5.98B
Gross Profit	3.03B	3.02B	2.59B	2.06B	1.71B	1.04B
EBITDA	2.35B	2.32B	1.95B	1.50B	1.10B	574.79M
Net Income	1.54B	1.53B	1.23B	899.10M	652.98M	355.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.28B	9.20B	8.04B	6.93B	6.65B	5.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.42B	1.42B	1.30B	899.14M	1.08B	951.60M
Total Debt	4.98B	4.54B	4.05B	3.73B	3.52B	3.16B
Total Liabilities	6.06B	5.55B	4.98B	4.56B	4.36B	3.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.22B	3.66B	3.06B	2.37B	2.30B	2.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.57B	1.51B	1.22B	844.01M	839.61M	290.50M
Operating Cash Flow	2.21B	2.11B	1.78B	1.32B	1.28B	663.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-143.37M	-837.53M	-946.01M	-830.03M	-522.04M	-432.72M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.07B	-1.07B	-660.65M	-929.40M	-548.61M	-104.85M

Chipotle Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 37.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.20, above the 50-day MA of 35.41, and below the 200-day MA of 44.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CMG.

Chipotle Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DRI	79 Outperform	$22.04B	19.87	54.10%	3.06%	8.61%	9.39%
QSR	75 Outperform	$31.93B	25.02	28.08%	3.49%	16.82%	-29.91%
CMG	73 Outperform	$48.92B	33.16	44.96%	―	7.31%	5.26%
MCD	65 Neutral	$226.96B	27.18	―	2.24%	1.26%	2.87%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
YUM	59 Neutral	$42.52B	29.82	―	1.85%	11.60%	-4.33%
SBUX	56 Neutral	$96.89B	52.32	―	2.88%	2.80%	-50.71%

Chipotle Corporate Events

Chipotle Expands Share Repurchase Program by $1.8 Billion

On December 4, 2025, Chipotle‘s Board of Directors authorized an additional $1.8 billion for share repurchases, marking a shift to larger, multi-quarter repurchase pools. As of December 5, 2025, approximately $1.85 billion remains authorized for repurchases, with $2.3 billion already repurchased in 2025. This move reflects Chipotle’s ongoing commitment to its share repurchase program, which has been in place since 2008, and may impact shareholder value positively.

Chipotle Elects Josh Weinstein to Board of Directors

On November 24, 2025, Chipotle Mexican Grill announced the election of Josh Weinstein to its Board of Directors, effective November 25, 2025. Weinstein, who has extensive experience in the leisure travel industry as CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc, will serve on the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee. This addition expands Chipotle’s Board to ten directors, nine of whom are independent, and is part of the company’s commitment to ongoing director refreshment. Weinstein’s hospitality expertise is expected to support Chipotle’s strategic priorities and enhance its mission of cultivating a better world.

Chipotle Announces $500M Share Repurchase Authorization

On September 15, 2025, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had authorized an additional $500 million for share repurchases, following a decision made on September 3, 2025. This early announcement allows the company to opportunistically repurchase shares before filing its third quarter Form 10-Q. With this new authorization, approximately $750 million is available for share repurchases, continuing a program in place since 2008, which has no expiration date and can be modified or discontinued at any time.