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Chipotle
(NYSE:CMG)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-7.90% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and cash generation, partially offset by higher leverage risk. Near-term outlook is mixed due to cautious comp guidance and margin/EPS pressure from inflation, while technicals show a clear downtrend. Valuation remains relatively premium at ~32x earnings without a dividend cushion.
Positive Factors
Cash generation and margins
Sustained strong operating cash flow and healthy operating/net margins provide durable internal funding for growth, technology rollouts and buybacks. Robust cash generation cushions earnings volatility and supports reinvestment in unit expansion and margin-improving initiatives over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material increase in leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises sensitivity to sales volatility or margin compression. Higher debt amplifies interest/repayment risk, limiting optionality for opportunistic investments or buybacks if cash flow weakens over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation and margins
Sustained strong operating cash flow and healthy operating/net margins provide durable internal funding for growth, technology rollouts and buybacks. Robust cash generation cushions earnings volatility and supports reinvestment in unit expansion and margin-improving initiatives over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Chipotle Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurants
Tracks the number of Chipotle locations, indicating expansion strategy and market penetration, which are key to revenue growth and brand presence.
Tracks the number of Chipotle locations, indicating expansion strategy and market penetration, which are key to revenue growth and brand presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyChipotle (CMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$43.59B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)21.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.5
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth5.67%
EPS Growth-4.28%
CountryUS
Employees130,504
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.09
Shares Outstanding1,282,734,000
10 Day Avg. Volume22,858,100
30 Day Avg. Volume21,657,262
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio12.01
Price to Book (P/B)17.48
Price to Sales (P/S)4.15
P/FCF Ratio34.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.67Price Target Upside21.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)1.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.98B
Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the...
How the Company Makes Money
Chipotle makes money primarily by selling food and beverages directly to customers at company-owned restaurants. The largest revenue stream is in-restaurant and digital sales of entrees (e.g., burritos, bowls, tacos, salads) and add-ons (e.g., gua...
Chipotle Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted meaningful top-line momentum (7.4% revenue growth), strong digital and loyalty engagement, successful menu innovation and encouraging early results from operational and technology investments (equipment rollout, digital makeline, AI and pilots). At the same time the company is navigating near-term margin pressure and EPS decline driven by cost inflation (beef, freight, labor), higher operating and marketing spend, and mix/check headwinds. Management communicated an optimistic long-term view with cautious near-term guidance and a clear path to margin improvement in the second half as inflation lapping and pricing/actions take effect.Positive Updates
Revenue and Top-Line Growth
Total revenue grew 7.4% year-over-year to $3.1 billion in Q1 2026, driven by a positive comparable restaurant sales increase of 0.5% and a return to positive transaction growth.
Negative Updates
Restaurant-Level Margin Pressure
Adjusted restaurant-level margin was 23.7%, down ~250 basis points year-over-year (adjusted for legal settlement impact), reflecting margin compression in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Top-Line Growth
Total revenue grew 7.4% year-over-year to $3.1 billion in Q1 2026, driven by a positive comparable restaurant sales increase of 0.5% and a return to positive transaction growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Chipotle reiterated full‑year comparable‑sales guidance of “about flat” while expecting Q2 comps of roughly +1%; Q1 results showed sales up 7.4% to $3.1B with comps +0.5% and digital sales of $1.2B (38.6% of total). Pricing ran just under 1% in Q1, is expected to be ~1.5% in Q2 and 1–2% for the full year; cost of sales was 29.6% in Q1 (≈+40 bps), is projected to be ~30% in Q2 with full‑year cost‑of‑sales inflation around 4%. Labor (adjusted) was 25.7% in Q1 (≈+70 bps) and is expected in the low‑25% range in Q2; other operating costs were 15.6% in Q1 (≈+120 bps) and are expected in the high‑14% range in Q2, with marketing 3.4% in Q1 and below 3% expected in Q2 and for the year. They forecast non‑GAAP G&A of about $181M in Q2 (Q1 non‑GAAP $198M, GAAP $204M), depreciation ~3% of sales for 2026, an effective tax rate of ~24–26% for the year, a strong balance sheet with ~$1B cash and no debt, $701M of repurchases completed at a $36.14 average with ~$1B remaining, 49 openings in Q1 (42 Chipotlanes) and a plan for ~350 openings in 2026 (~80% Chipotlane), while loyalty was 32% of sales (up 300 bps YoY) and equipment/digital rollouts target 2,000 HEAT installs and full digital makeline rollout by year‑end.Chipotle Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.14B | 11.93B | 11.31B | 9.87B | 8.63B | 7.55B |
| Gross Profit | 4.39B | 3.03B | 3.02B | 2.59B | 2.06B | 1.71B |
| EBITDA | 2.28B | 2.37B | 2.32B | 1.95B | 1.50B | 1.10B |
| Net Income | 1.45B | 1.54B | 1.53B | 1.23B | 899.10M | 652.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.80B | 8.99B | 9.20B | 8.04B | 6.93B | 6.65B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 871.42M | 1.05B | 1.42B | 1.30B | 899.14M | 1.08B |
| Total Debt | 5.25B | 9.85B | 4.54B | 4.05B | 3.73B | 3.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.40B | 6.16B | 5.55B | 4.98B | 4.56B | 4.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.41B | 2.83B | 3.66B | 3.06B | 2.37B | 2.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.51B | 1.45B | 1.51B | 1.22B | 844.01M | 839.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.21B | 2.11B | 2.11B | 1.78B | 1.32B | 1.28B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -49.23M | -35.08M | -837.53M | -946.01M | -830.03M | -522.04M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.63B | -2.47B | -1.07B | -660.65M | -929.40M | -548.61M |
Chipotle Technical Analysis
Positive
35.83
Price Trends
32.26
Positive
33.55
Positive
35.46
Negative
Market Momentum
0.73
Negative
58.90
Neutral
80.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.36, above the 50-day MA of 32.26, and above the 200-day MA of 35.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMG.
Chipotle Risk Analysis
Chipotle disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Chipotle reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Chipotle Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $23.28B | 19.37 | 50.71% | 3.06% | 9.39% | 17.16% | |
71 Outperform | $45.75B | 26.80 | -23.33% | 1.84% | 9.65% | 23.32% | |
67 Neutral | $198.59B | 23.19 | -433.90% | 2.31% | 6.76% | 6.96% | |
65 Neutral | $43.59B | 31.51 | 48.45% | ― | 5.67% | -4.28% | |
64 Neutral | $116.37B | 78.49 | -18.33% | 2.88% | 5.88% | -52.37% | |
64 Neutral | $33.43B | 21.49 | 27.14% | 3.60% | 9.26% | -3.76% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CMG
Chipotle
34.35
-21.59
-38.59%
DRI
Darden Restaurants
204.50
-4.92
-2.35%
MCD
McDonald's
282.21
-3.87
-1.35%
SBUX
Starbucks
103.61
10.81
11.65%
YUM
Yum! Brands
167.49
19.49
13.17%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
73.94
9.09
14.02%
Chipotle Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Chipotle Strengthens Leadership With New Brand, Digital Chiefs
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill said it will appoint Fernando Machado, a highly decorated global marketing executive with experience at Restaurant Brands International, Unilever and Activision Blizzard, as Chief Brand Officer effective J...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.