Chipotle (CMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $55.81B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 18.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 8.57%
• EPS Growth: 10.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 130,504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 1,340,885,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,370,838
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 18,330,728
• PEG Ratio: 2.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 22.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 54.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 33.67
• 1Y Price Target: $58.85
• Price Target Upside: 37.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 28

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $49.00 ▲(14.41% Upside)

Chipotle's strong financial performance is a key strength, driven by solid revenue growth and profitability. However, technical indicators and valuation reveal challenges, with the stock appearing overvalued and experiencing bearish momentum. Earnings call insights show mixed performance with cautious future guidance. The positive corporate event of securing a new credit agreement adds some optimism but does not outweigh the current challenges.

Positive Factors

Analyst Recommendation

Analyst upgrades shares of CMG to Overweight from Neutral, suggesting a positive risk-reward scenario with potential for significant upside.

Market Pricing

The market has already priced in a lot of the negative factors, with shares previously down approximately 31% year-to-date, suggesting limited downside risk.

Operational Initiatives

Operations initiatives on track, with slicers fully deployed and the high-efficiency kitchen test on track, potentially leading to a 3-year rollout.

Negative Factors

Same-Store Sales Growth

There is a challenge for CMG in maintaining strong same-store sales growth while also expanding restaurant-level margins significantly.

Top-Line Performance

There is concern about the potential risk to CMG's top-line performance in the latter half of the year, with estimates already below consensus.

Valuation Concerns

Valuation pushback on Chipotle has been noted in recent months.

Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is a fast-casual restaurant chain based in the United States that specializes in Mexican cuisine, primarily offering made-to-order burritos, tacos, bowls, and salads. Founded in 1993, Chipotle operates in the fast-casual dining sector, focusing on high-quality ingredients and sustainable sourcing practices. The company emphasizes fresh produce, responsibly raised meats, and a commitment to food integrity, serving customers in over 2,800 locations across the U.S., Canada, and Europe.

How the Company Makes Money

Chipotle generates revenue primarily through the sale of its food and beverages in its restaurants. The company employs a straightforward revenue model based on direct sales to consumers. Key revenue streams include in-store dining, takeout, and delivery services, with an increasing emphasis on digital sales through its mobile app and website. Chipotle has developed partnerships with third-party delivery services such as DoorDash and Uber Eats, which expand its reach to customers preferring delivery options. Furthermore, the company has implemented loyalty programs that encourage repeat business and enhance customer retention. Chipotle's focus on menu innovation, such as the introduction of new items and promotions, also contributes to its earnings by attracting both new and returning customers.

Chipotle Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Chipotle's financial health is strong, evidenced by a 17.3% revenue growth and robust profit margins. The balance sheet shows a balanced leverage position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36, and a strong return on equity of 43.7%. Cash flow is solid with a free cash flow growth of 6.9%.

Income Statement

Chipotle has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 17.3% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a 14.7% increase from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin improved to 37.3% TTM, and the net profit margin is steady at 13.3%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 16.6% and 20.3% TTM respectively, indicating efficient operations and strong profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36 TTM, implying a balanced leverage position. The return on equity is strong at 43.7% TTM, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio is 38%, reflecting a relatively low proportion of equity financing in the capital structure.

Cash Flow

Chipotle's cash flow performance is solid, with a free cash flow growth of 6.9% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.36 TTM, indicating strong cash generation from core operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.95 TTM also supports the company's ability to transform earnings into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.58B	11.31B	9.87B	8.63B	7.55B	5.98B
Gross Profit	4.32B	3.02B	2.59B	2.06B	1.71B	1.04B
EBITDA	2.35B	2.32B	1.95B	1.50B	1.10B	574.79M
Net Income	1.54B	1.53B	1.23B	899.10M	652.98M	355.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.27B	9.20B	8.04B	6.93B	6.65B	5.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.55B	1.42B	1.30B	899.14M	1.08B	951.60M
Total Debt	4.78B	4.54B	4.05B	3.73B	3.52B	3.16B
Total Liabilities	5.74B	5.55B	4.98B	4.56B	4.36B	3.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.53B	3.66B	3.06B	2.37B	2.30B	2.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.47B	1.51B	1.22B	844.01M	839.61M	290.50M
Operating Cash Flow	2.09B	2.11B	1.78B	1.32B	1.28B	663.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-192.21M	-837.53M	-946.01M	-830.03M	-522.04M	-432.72M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.86B	-1.07B	-660.65M	-929.40M	-548.61M	-104.85M

Chipotle Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 42.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.31, below the 50-day MA of 50.71, and below the 200-day MA of 54.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMG.

Chipotle Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAVA	76 Outperform	$9.77B	70.97	20.90%	―	28.21%	227.11%
MCD	69 Neutral	$215.25B	25.84	-216.57%	2.31%	1.17%	2.09%
TXRH	69 Neutral	$11.74B	26.95	32.28%	1.46%	14.59%	18.98%
DPZ	68 Neutral	$14.98B	25.61	-14.74%	1.47%	3.65%	5.71%
YUM	67 Neutral	$39.44B	28.06	-19.43%	1.94%	11.30%	-7.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.22B	11.58	-7.48%	3.16%	1.46%	-15.87%
CMG	58 Neutral	$55.81B	36.79	42.59%	―	8.57%	10.72%

Chipotle Corporate Events

Chipotle Announces $400 Million Stock Buyback Plan

On July 23, 2025, Chipotle announced a $400 million stock repurchase authorization, supplementing previous buyback plans. The company reported a 3.0% revenue increase to $3.1 billion for Q2 2025, despite a 4.0% drop in comparable restaurant sales. The opening of 61 new restaurants, including 47 with Chipotlanes, contributed to the revenue growth. However, operating and restaurant-level margins decreased, and net income fell slightly compared to the previous year. Chipotle is optimistic about future growth, focusing on marketing initiatives, menu innovations, and expanding its rewards program.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Hold with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.

Chipotle Secures New $500M Revolving Credit Agreement

On June 24, 2025, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. entered into a new $500 million senior, unsecured Revolving Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., which will mature on June 24, 2030. This agreement replaces a prior credit agreement set to expire in 2026, and includes financial covenants and limitations on certain corporate activities, positioning Chipotle for continued financial flexibility and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Hold with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.