Chipotle (CMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $47.53B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 17.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 7.31%
• EPS Growth: 5.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 130,504
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 1,302,423,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,429,568
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 17,223,208
• PEG Ratio: 12.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 17.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 25.00
• 1Y Price Target: $44.83
• Price Target Upside: 19.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 27
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $12.95B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $43.00 ▲(14.67% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/05/26

The score is primarily supported by strong historical financial performance and solid cash generation, but is held back by signs of margin pressure and a more cautious near-term outlook from management. Technicals are moderately constructive but not fully supportive given the stock remains below the 200-day average, while valuation is a drag due to a higher P/E and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Generation

Chipotle produces consistently strong operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow, which historically tracks ~64%–72% of net income. Durable cash generation funds restaurant expansion, high-return reinvestment, and sizeable buybacks, giving the company flexibility to execute strategy and return capital over the medium term.

Unit Growth & Global Expansion

Sustained unit growth — including record openings and accelerating international expansion — expands Chipotle's scale and revenue base. New restaurants diversify geographic exposure, embed operating standards, and create multi-year comp and cash-flow tailwinds as high-efficiency formats and Chipotlane rollouts improve throughput and unit economics.

Digital & Loyalty Momentum

A large and growing digital channel plus a 21M-member rewards base increases customer retention, repeat purchase frequency and data-driven marketing efficiency. Digital mix raises ticket and margins over time, and loyalty-driven sales create durable revenue stickiness that supports long-term unit productivity and lower customer acquisition costs.

Negative Factors

Sharp Increase in Leverage

A large increase in debt materially reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises sensitivity to demand or cost shocks. Higher leverage increases fixed finance costs and constrains capacity for opportunistic capital allocation, making the company less resilient to margin compression or an economic slowdown over the next 2–6 months.

Gross Margin Step-Down

A meaningful gross-margin decline signals rising input and labor cost pressure that can persist absent full offsetting price. If pricing only partially covers inflation, structural margin deterioration may limit operating leverage benefits from unit growth and weigh on long-term operating margin and free cash flow generation.

Weak Comps & Conservative Outlook

Persistent comparable-restaurant sales declines and management's conservative guidance reflect softer consumer demand and slower traffic recovery. Sustained weak comps reduce margin leverage per restaurant, force higher marketing and labor investment to reengage customers, and can delay payback on new-unit ROI over the medium term.

Chipotle Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Chipotle generates revenue primarily through its restaurant sales, which include dine-in, takeout, and online orders. The company operates a significant number of locations across the U.S. and internationally, and each restaurant contributes to its overall revenue through the sale of food and beverages. Key revenue streams include the sale of core menu items such as burritos, bowls, and salads, as well as drinks and sides. Additionally, Chipotle has embraced digital ordering and delivery services, which have become increasingly important revenue channels, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company has formed partnerships with third-party delivery platforms to enhance its reach and convenience for customers. Chipotle also benefits from a loyalty program that encourages repeat business and increases customer retention. Overall, the combination of in-store sales, digital innovations, and strategic partnerships drives the company's financial performance.

Chipotle Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and structurally higher profitability support a high score, reinforced by solid operating cash flow and healthy free cash flow generation. Offsetting factors include a meaningful 2025 gross margin step-down and a weaker balance-sheet score driven by sharply higher leverage in 2025, which reduces flexibility if costs or demand soften.

Income Statement

Chipotle shows strong top-line momentum, with revenue rising from ~$6.0B (2020) to ~$11.9B (2025). Profitability has also structurally improved since 2020, with net margin expanding from ~5.9% (2020) to ~12.9% (2025) and operating margin reaching ~16.9% (2025). The key weakness is a noticeable 2025 gross margin step-down versus 2024 (about 22.3% vs 26.7%), which suggests higher input and/or labor pressure that could cap incremental profitability if it persists.

Balance Sheet

Returns on shareholder capital are very strong (return on equity consistently high, reaching ~54% in 2025), but leverage increased sharply in 2025. Total debt jumped to ~$9.85B (from ~$4.54B in 2024), pushing debt relative to equity to ~3.48x (vs ~1.24x in 2024). While the business remains profitable, the higher debt load reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to downturns or cost volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and relatively consistent, with operating cash flow around ~$2.1B in both 2024 and 2025 and free cash flow of ~$1.45B in 2025. Free cash flow generally tracks earnings at a healthy level (roughly ~64%–72% of net income in recent years), supporting reinvestment and shareholder returns. The main drawback is that 2025 free cash flow declined versus 2024 (negative growth), indicating some near-term pressure from working capital, capital spending, or operating costs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.93B	11.31B	9.87B	8.63B	7.55B
Gross Profit	2.66B	3.02B	2.59B	2.06B	1.71B
EBITDA	2.37B	2.32B	1.95B	1.50B	1.10B
Net Income	1.54B	1.53B	1.23B	899.10M	652.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.99B	9.20B	8.04B	6.93B	6.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	1.42B	1.30B	899.14M	1.08B
Total Debt	9.85B	4.54B	4.05B	3.73B	3.52B
Total Liabilities	6.16B	5.55B	4.98B	4.56B	4.36B
Stockholders Equity	2.83B	3.66B	3.06B	2.37B	2.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.45B	1.51B	1.22B	844.01M	839.61M
Operating Cash Flow	2.11B	2.11B	1.78B	1.32B	1.28B
Investing Cash Flow	-35.08M	-837.53M	-946.01M	-830.03M	-522.04M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.47B	-1.07B	-660.65M	-929.40M	-548.61M

Chipotle Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 37.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.13, below the 50-day MA of 38.38, and below the 200-day MA of 42.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CMG.

Chipotle Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DRI	76 Outperform	$24.63B	22.42	54.10%	3.06%	8.61%	9.39%
MCD	75 Outperform	$237.18B	27.86	―	2.31%	1.26%	2.87%
YUM	74 Outperform	$45.87B	29.91	―	1.84%	11.60%	-4.33%
CMG	67 Neutral	$47.53B	32.81	47.36%	―	7.31%	5.26%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
QSR	61 Neutral	$31.37B	29.28	26.75%	3.60%	16.82%	-29.91%
SBUX	59 Neutral	$109.95B	80.40	―	2.88%	2.80%	-50.71%

Chipotle Corporate Events

Chipotle Announces Major Leadership Changes and Succession Plans

On January 12, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill announced a sweep of leadership changes, with Chief Human Resources Officer Ilene Eskenazi elevated to the combined role of Chief Legal and Human Resources Officer, succeeding outgoing Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel Roger Theodoredis. On the same date, Vice President of Brand Marketing Stephanie Perdue was named Interim Chief Marketing Officer, following the departure of Chris Brandt from his role as President, Chief Brand Officer; both Theodoredis and Brandt transitioned out of their executive positions effective January 12, 2026, but will remain in non-executive advisory roles for a limited period to support an orderly succession, during which they will receive salary and benefits but no new equity awards. Chipotle has launched an internal and external search, supported by an executive search firm, to identify a permanent CMO, while reaffirming its previously issued full-year 2025 financial guidance, signaling management’s intent to maintain strategic and financial continuity despite the executive turnover and to reinforce investor confidence in its long-term growth and operational plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.

Chipotle Expands Share Repurchase Program by $1.8 Billion

On December 4, 2025, Chipotle‘s Board of Directors authorized an additional $1.8 billion for share repurchases, marking a shift to larger, multi-quarter repurchase pools. As of December 5, 2025, approximately $1.85 billion remains authorized for repurchases, with $2.3 billion already repurchased in 2025. This move reflects Chipotle’s ongoing commitment to its share repurchase program, which has been in place since 2008, and may impact shareholder value positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.

Chipotle Elects Josh Weinstein to Board of Directors

On November 24, 2025, Chipotle Mexican Grill announced the election of Josh Weinstein to its Board of Directors, effective November 25, 2025. Weinstein, who has extensive experience in the leisure travel industry as CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc, will serve on the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee. This addition expands Chipotle’s Board to ten directors, nine of whom are independent, and is part of the company’s commitment to ongoing director refreshment. Weinstein’s hospitality expertise is expected to support Chipotle’s strategic priorities and enhance its mission of cultivating a better world.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMG) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chipotle stock, see the CMG Stock Forecast page.