Starbucks (SBUX)
NASDAQ:SBUX
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Starbucks
(NASDAQ:SBUX)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$99.00
▲(6.80% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability versus prior years and elevated financial risk from high leverage/negative equity. This is partly offset by improving operating momentum and constructive FY26 guidance, along with strong technical trend signals. Valuation remains a notable headwind due to the very high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth Momentum
Sustained top-line growth and improving comparable-store sales indicate durable consumer demand and successful execution of the 'Back to Starbucks' strategy. Consistent revenue expansion supports store economics, investment payback, and provides runway for incremental margin recovery over several quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Negative Equity
Material leverage and negative equity materially constrain financial flexibility: higher refinancing and interest risk, limited capacity for buybacks or acquisitions, and greater vulnerability if margins stall. For a consumer cyclical business, this raises structural solvency and capital-allocation risks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Momentum
Sustained top-line growth and improving comparable-store sales indicate durable consumer demand and successful execution of the 'Back to Starbucks' strategy. Consistent revenue expansion supports store economics, investment payback, and provides runway for incremental margin recovery over several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Starbucks (SBUX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$105.61B
Dividend Yield2.88%
Average Volume (3M)7.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)83.0
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth2.80%
EPS Growth-50.71%
CountryUS
Employees361,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.56
Shares Outstanding1,139,300,000
10 Day Avg. Volume8,840,768
30 Day Avg. Volume7,852,992
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.04
Price to Book (P/B)-12.06
Price to Sales (P/S)2.63
P/FCF Ratio39.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$101.00Price Target Upside8.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering26
EPS Forecast (FY)2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$38.38B
Starbucks Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offe...
How the Company Makes Money
Starbucks primarily generates revenue through the sale of food and beverages across its retail stores, with a significant portion coming from its specialty coffee drinks. The company also earns money through merchandise sales, including coffee bea...
Starbucks Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down earnings from different business areas like beverages, food, and merchandise, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability.
Breaks down earnings from different business areas like beverages, food, and merchandise, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStarbucks Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear top-line momentum and operational improvements—global revenue +5%, comps +4%, strong international performance (+10% revenue; China comps +7%), record Rewards engagement, and several scalable service and technology initiatives—indicating the turnaround is taking hold. However, meaningful near-term margin pressure and earnings headwinds were highlighted: consolidated operating margin down 180 bps (North America down ~420 bps), Q1 EPS down 19%, product/tariff inflation, and transitional accounting impacts from the China JV introduce P&L variability. Management expects margins and earnings to improve in the back half of FY26 (guidance: global comps ≥3%, net new stores ~600–650, EPS guide $2.15–$2.40) as investments anniversary, inflation abates, and cost actions take hold. Overall the positives around sustainable revenue and transaction recovery, international strength, and strategic initiatives outweighed the near-term margin and EPS challenges, with the company positioning for improvement later in the year.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Comparable Sales Acceleration
Global revenue grew 5% year-over-year to $9.9 billion in Q1 FY26, with global comparable store sales accelerating to 4% growth.
Negative Updates
Operating Margin Contraction
Consolidated operating margin contracted 180 basis points year-over-year to 10.1% in Q1; North America operating margin declined ~420 basis points, largely due to the annualization of Back to Starbucks investments and product/distribution cost inflation (tariffs and elevated coffee pricing).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Comparable Sales Acceleration
Global revenue grew 5% year-over-year to $9.9 billion in Q1 FY26, with global comparable store sales accelerating to 4% growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Starbucks guided fiscal 2026 to at least 3% global comparable store sales growth (3%+ in the U.S.), consolidated net revenues to grow roughly in line with comp growth, and slightly higher consolidated operating margins year‑over‑year with improvement weighted to the back half of the year (Q2 typically the lowest‑margin quarter); they expect consolidated G&A dollars to run below FY2023 and see coffee and tariff pressures peaking in Q2 and easing in H2. The company plans about 600–650 net new coffeehouses (150–175 U.S. company‑operated, a slight decrease in North America licensed, and 450–500 international with China comprising close to half), and provided EPS guidance of $2.15–$2.40 (noting a China joint venture would likely modestly lower consolidated revenues/comps but could be ~40 basis points accretive to consolidated margins on an annualized basis and the transaction is expected to be ~$0.02–$0.03 dilutive to EPS); they also expect the China JV (Boyu up to 60% / Starbucks retaining 40%) to close in the spring and noted assets held for sale reduced monthly expenses by about $39 million.Starbucks Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 37.70B | 37.18B | 36.18B | 35.98B | 32.25B | 29.06B |
| Gross Profit | 7.76B | 8.98B | 9.71B | 9.85B | 8.37B | 8.39B |
| EBITDA | 5.25B | 5.38B | 7.12B | 7.40B | 6.24B | 7.35B |
| Net Income | 1.37B | 1.86B | 3.76B | 4.12B | 3.28B | 4.20B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 32.23B | 32.02B | 31.34B | 29.45B | 27.98B | 31.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.60B | 3.47B | 3.54B | 3.95B | 3.18B | 6.62B |
| Total Debt | 33.52B | 26.61B | 25.80B | 24.60B | 23.80B | 23.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 40.61B | 40.11B | 38.78B | 37.43B | 36.68B | 36.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | -8.39B | -8.10B | -7.45B | -7.99B | -8.71B | -5.32B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.34B | 2.44B | 3.32B | 3.68B | 2.56B | 4.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.27B | 4.75B | 6.10B | 6.01B | 4.40B | 5.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.95B | -2.49B | -2.70B | -2.27B | -2.15B | -319.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.29B | -2.30B | -3.72B | -2.99B | -5.64B | -3.65B |
Starbucks Technical Analysis
Neutral
92.70
Price Trends
95.78
Negative
90.10
Positive
88.67
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.72
Positive
42.04
Neutral
11.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBUX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 92.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.03, below the 50-day MA of 95.78, and above the 200-day MA of 88.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SBUX.
Starbucks Risk Analysis
Starbucks disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Starbucks reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Starbucks Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $221.43B | 25.46 | -336.89% | 2.31% | 1.26% | 2.87% | |
74 Outperform | $44.00B | 26.98 | -20.57% | 1.84% | 11.60% | -4.33% | |
71 Outperform | $23.22B | 20.24 | 50.71% | 3.06% | 8.61% | 9.39% | |
67 Neutral | $42.33B | 32.22 | 47.00% | ― | 7.31% | 5.26% | |
64 Neutral | $33.24B | 50.42 | 23.08% | 3.60% | 16.82% | -29.91% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $105.61B | 83.00 | -17.22% | 2.88% | 2.80% | -50.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SBUX
Starbucks
92.70
-3.49
-3.63%
CMG
Chipotle
32.50
-18.42
-36.17%
DRI
Darden Restaurants
201.66
-0.26
-0.13%
MCD
McDonald's
311.70
6.08
1.99%
YUM
Yum! Brands
159.16
4.49
2.90%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
72.92
6.66
10.05%
Starbucks Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Starbucks Forms Joint Venture with Boyu Capital in China
Positive
Nov 3, 2025
On November 3, 2025, Starbucks announced a joint venture with Boyu Capital, where Boyu will acquire up to a 60% interest in Starbucks’ retail operations in China. This strategic partnership aims to accelerate Starbucks’ growth in China...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.