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Starbucks
(NASDAQ:SBUX)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$112.00
▲(8.47% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
SBUX scores 62 primarily due to mixed fundamentals: strong, resilient free cash flow is offset by notable TTM margin compression, negative revenue growth, and a higher-risk balance sheet with high debt and negative equity. The latest earnings call improves the outlook with raised guidance and reported operating momentum, while technicals are supportive. Valuation remains the key constraint given the high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
Consistent, multi-billion dollar free cash flow provides a durable financial cushion to fund operations, capital expenditures, debt repayment, and shareholder returns. That recurring cash generation lessens reliance on capital markets and supports the company while it executes margin and structural initiatives.
Negative Factors
High leverage & negative equity
Elevated absolute debt and persistent negative equity weaken the balance sheet and reduce financial flexibility. The company depends on continued FCF and refinancing access; a downturn or cash-flow slip would constrain capital allocation and increase refinancing and covenant risks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow strength
Consistent, multi-billion dollar free cash flow provides a durable financial cushion to fund operations, capital expenditures, debt repayment, and shareholder returns. That recurring cash generation lessens reliance on capital markets and supports the company while it executes margin and structural initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Starbucks Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Store Count
Tracks the number of Starbucks locations globally, indicating market penetration, brand expansion, and potential for revenue growth.
Tracks the number of Starbucks locations globally, indicating market penetration, brand expansion, and potential for revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStarbucks (SBUX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$119.98B
Dividend Yield2.35%
Average Volume (3M)6.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)60.5
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth4.51%
EPS Growth-24.97%
CountryUS
Employees381,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.74
Shares Outstanding1,140,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,121,592
30 Day Avg. Volume6,711,819
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.04
Price to Book (P/B)-12.06
Price to Sales (P/S)2.63
P/FCF Ratio39.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$119.00Price Target Upside15.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)2.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$37.96B
Starbucks Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Starbucks Corporation, along with its various subsidiaries, operates worldwide as a key player in roasting, marketing, and selling specialty coffee. Its business is structured into three main operating divisions: North America, International marke...
How the Company Makes Money
Starbucks primarily makes money by selling beverages and food through its retail store network. Its revenue is largely generated from company-operated stores, where Starbucks records retail sales directly to customers; these sales are driven by ha...
Starbucks Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational momentum and recovery: strong comparable sales, meaningful margin expansion, significant EPS improvement, successful operational initiatives (Green Apron Service, uplifts, supply chain gains), loyalty growth, and improved balance sheet metrics. Offsetting items include a reported revenue decline driven by the China JV deconsolidation, lingering coffee cost pressure, modest near-term North America unit growth and targeted store closures, and one-time tariff refund benefits. On balance, positive execution and upgraded guidance outweighed the transitional and near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Comparable Store Sales Momentum
Global comps grew 7.9% in Q3 (sequential improvement), with North America company-operated comps up 8.1% and U.S. comps up 7.9% (transactions +4.2%, average ticket +3.6%), and international company-operated comps +5.7% (sixth consecutive quarter of positive system-wide comps).
Negative Updates
Reported Revenue Decline (China Transition Impact)
Consolidated net revenues were down ~1% year-over-year in Q3, largely driven by the deconsolidation/transition of the China retail business to a new joint venture licensing structure which reduced reported revenues.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Comparable Store Sales Momentum
Global comps grew 7.9% in Q3 (sequential improvement), with North America company-operated comps up 8.1% and U.S. comps up 7.9% (transactions +4.2%, average ticket +3.6%), and international company-operated comps +5.7% (sixth consecutive quarter of positive system-wide comps).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Starbucks raised its fiscal 2026 outlook: it now expects U.S. Q4 comparable sales of 6.5% or better (implying full‑year U.S. comps a little over 6% and global comps nearing 6%), consolidated net revenues to be flat to slightly higher year‑over‑year, and consolidated operating margin to be greater than 11%, with EPS guidance lifted to $2.55–$2.65 (Q3 EPS was $0.85); the company reiterated ~600–650 net new coffee‑house openings for FY26, remains on track with a $2 billion gross cost‑savings plan through FY28, expects FY26 G&A dollars below FY23 levels, assumes a Q4 effective tax rate in the mid‑20s, sees coffee price pressure largely easing in Q4, and noted balance‑sheet progress (≈$1.8B debt repaid, leverage ~2.9x).Starbucks Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 38.33B | 37.18B | 36.18B | 35.98B | 32.25B | 29.06B |
| Gross Profit | 12.17B | 8.98B | 9.71B | 9.85B | 8.37B | 8.39B |
| EBITDA | 5.87B | 5.38B | 7.12B | 7.40B | 6.24B | 7.35B |
| Net Income | 1.98B | 1.86B | 3.76B | 4.12B | 3.28B | 4.20B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 28.29B | 32.02B | 31.34B | 29.45B | 27.98B | 31.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.61B | 3.47B | 3.54B | 3.95B | 3.18B | 6.62B |
| Total Debt | 22.43B | 26.61B | 25.80B | 24.60B | 23.80B | 23.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.96B | 40.11B | 38.78B | 37.43B | 36.68B | 36.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | -7.67B | -8.10B | -7.45B | -7.99B | -8.71B | -5.32B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.64B | 2.44B | 3.32B | 3.68B | 2.56B | 4.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.99B | 4.75B | 6.10B | 6.01B | 4.40B | 5.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.18B | -2.49B | -2.70B | -2.27B | -2.15B | -319.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.88B | -2.30B | -3.72B | -2.99B | -5.64B | -3.65B |
Starbucks Technical Analysis
Positive
103.25
Price Trends
102.50
Positive
100.60
Positive
94.76
Positive
Market Momentum
0.51
Positive
54.39
Neutral
56.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBUX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 103.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 104.96, above the 50-day MA of 102.50, and above the 200-day MA of 94.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SBUX.
Starbucks Risk Analysis
Starbucks disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Starbucks reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Starbucks Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $23.22B | 19.46 | 56.01% | 3.12% | 9.39% | 17.16% | |
73 Outperform | $47.74B | 34.17 | 53.26% | ― | 7.31% | -4.37% | |
71 Outperform | $42.25B | 19.14 | -30.35% | 1.96% | 10.28% | 56.85% | |
68 Neutral | $192.29B | 22.24 | -433.90% | 2.78% | 6.76% | 6.96% | |
68 Neutral | $33.78B | 21.52 | 34.86% | 3.50% | 9.26% | -3.76% | |
62 Neutral | $119.98B | 60.49 | -24.31% | 2.39% | 4.51% | -24.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SBUX
Starbucks
105.58
15.83
17.64%
CMG
Chipotle
32.79
-8.65
-20.87%
DRI
Darden Restaurants
213.76
17.97
9.18%
MCD
McDonald's
274.48
-23.73
-7.96%
YUM
Yum! Brands
150.76
12.15
8.76%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
73.89
11.69
18.80%
Starbucks Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Starbucks Appoints Val Bauduin as Principal Accounting Officer
Neutral
Jun 13, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Starbucks Corporation named Val Bauduin as its principal accounting officer, while he continues serving as senior vice president of Corporate Finance and Development reporting to chief financial officer Cathy Smith. Smith remains...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Starbucks Completes Cash Tender Offer, Refines Debt Profile
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Starbucks Corporation completed the settlement of its previously announced cash tender offers to repurchase selected series of outstanding senior notes, electing to settle on the early settlement date and confirming it will not bu...
Business Operations and Strategy
Starbucks Launches Restructuring Under ‘Back to Starbucks’ Strategy
Neutral
May 15, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Starbucks’ board approved new steps under its “Back to Starbucks” strategy, aimed at revitalizing its coffeehouses and enhancing the customer experience to support long-term growth and value creation. The company...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.