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Starbucks
(NASDAQ:SBUX)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$114.00
▲(14.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
The score is driven mainly by improving operating momentum and raised FY2026 guidance from the latest earnings call, reinforced by bullish technical trends. Offsetting this, the financial profile carries meaningful risk from recent margin compression and an aggressive capital structure (high debt and negative equity), while valuation remains demanding with a high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility: they fund reinvestment, debt reduction, and shareholder returns without relying on equity markets. Strong FCF growth also cushions the company versus cyclical downturns and supports multi-year strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
High leverage
An aggressive capital structure with very high debt and negative equity materially reduces financial flexibility. It increases interest and refinancing risk, constrains the company’s ability to absorb shocks or ramp investment if operating performance weakens, and raises long-term funding costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility: they fund reinvestment, debt reduction, and shareholder returns without relying on equity markets. Strong FCF growth also cushions the company versus cyclical downturns and supports multi-year strategic initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Starbucks Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down earnings from different business areas like beverages, food, and merchandise, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability.
Breaks down earnings from different business areas like beverages, food, and merchandise, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStarbucks (SBUX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$123.51B
Dividend Yield2.88%
Average Volume (3M)7.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)82.1
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth5.88%
EPS Growth-52.37%
CountryUS
Employees381,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.32
Shares Outstanding1,139,700,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,850,490
30 Day Avg. Volume7,395,806
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.04
Price to Book (P/B)-12.06
Price to Sales (P/S)2.63
P/FCF Ratio39.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$112.59Price Target Upside12.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)2.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$37.85B
Starbucks Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Starbucks Corporation, along with its various subsidiaries, operates worldwide as a key player in roasting, marketing, and selling specialty coffee. Its business is structured into three main operating divisions: North America, International marke...
How the Company Makes Money
Starbucks primarily generates revenue by selling beverages, food, and other items through its retail locations. A substantial portion comes from company-operated stores, where Starbucks records sales directly to customers (with beverages typically...
Starbucks Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a clear operational turnaround with meaningful top-line growth (revenue +9%, global comps ~6.2%), margin expansion (consolidated margin +110 bps) and EPS improvement (+22% YoY), supported by product innovation, Rewards momentum, delivery and international recovery. Management raised comp and EPS guidance and closed a strategically important China transaction that generated ~$3.1 billion in gross proceeds. Near-term headwinds include North America margin compression, elevated product and distribution costs (tariffs and coffee prices), higher tax rate, and reduced reported revenue due to the China JV structure. On balance, highlights around revenue, comps, operational improvements, rewards growth, and strategic capital actions materially outweigh the lowlights, though management remains cautious about macro uncertainty.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated Q2 revenue of $9.5 billion, up ~9% year-over-year, marking top-line growth for the first time in more than two years.
Negative Updates
Macro Uncertainty and Consumer Headwinds
Management emphasized heightened macro uncertainty (e.g., gas prices, fuel surcharges) that could impact consumer behavior and introduced prudence in EPS flow-through expectations despite strong Q2 results.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated Q2 revenue of $9.5 billion, up ~9% year-over-year, marking top-line growth for the first time in more than two years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Starbucks raised fiscal 2026 guidance, calling for global comparable-store sales of 5% or better (U.S. comps 5% or better) and raised EPS to $2.25–$2.45 while expecting consolidated net revenues to be roughly flat year‑over‑year and modest consolidated operating‑margin expansion; management reiterated the $2 billion gross cost‑savings target through FY2028 and a unit‑growth target of ~600–650 net new stores (450–500 international, ~150–175 U.S. company‑operated). The guidance follows a strong Q2 that produced $9.5B consolidated revenue (up ~9% YoY), global comps of 6.2%, consolidated operating margin of 9.4% (up ~110 bps), EPS of $0.50 (up ~22% YoY), North America revenue of $6.9B (NA comps +7.1%, U.S. comps +7.1% with transactions +>4% and delivery +30% YTD), International net revenue ~$2.1B (up ~10%, comps +2.6%) and International operating margin 20.3% (up ~790 bps, aided by ~$118M of held‑for‑sale accounting). Management said China will transition to a JV/licensing structure (China retail transaction generated ~ $3.1B gross proceeds and total value >$13B NPV), with China‑related revenues in H2 expected to be <20% of prior reported levels and the JV roughly neutral to EPS this year; they also expect coffee and tariff pressures to moderate in the back half and reiterated that consolidated G&A dollars should remain below FY2023 levels.Starbucks Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 38.46B | 37.18B | 36.18B | 35.98B | 32.25B | 29.06B |
| Gross Profit | 7.83B | 8.98B | 9.71B | 9.85B | 8.37B | 8.39B |
| EBITDA | 5.37B | 5.38B | 7.12B | 7.40B | 6.24B | 7.35B |
| Net Income | 1.50B | 1.86B | 3.76B | 4.12B | 3.28B | 4.20B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 30.56B | 32.02B | 31.34B | 29.45B | 27.98B | 31.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.70B | 3.47B | 3.54B | 3.95B | 3.18B | 6.62B |
| Total Debt | 24.39B | 26.61B | 25.80B | 24.60B | 23.80B | 23.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 39.02B | 40.11B | 38.78B | 37.43B | 36.68B | 36.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | -8.47B | -8.10B | -7.45B | -7.99B | -8.71B | -5.32B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.73B | 2.44B | 3.32B | 3.68B | 2.56B | 4.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.35B | 4.75B | 6.10B | 6.01B | 4.40B | 5.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.64B | -2.49B | -2.70B | -2.27B | -2.15B | -319.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.31B | -2.30B | -3.72B | -2.99B | -5.64B | -3.65B |
Starbucks Technical Analysis
Positive
100.00
Price Trends
102.60
Positive
99.52
Positive
92.91
Positive
Market Momentum
1.57
Negative
63.21
Neutral
76.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBUX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 100 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 103.79, below the 50-day MA of 102.60, and above the 200-day MA of 92.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SBUX.
Starbucks Risk Analysis
Starbucks disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Starbucks reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Starbucks Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $23.05B | 19.23 | 50.71% | 3.06% | 9.39% | 17.16% | |
71 Outperform | $43.87B | 31.39 | 48.45% | ― | 5.67% | -4.28% | |
71 Outperform | $41.92B | 24.33 | -23.33% | 1.84% | 9.65% | 23.32% | |
67 Neutral | $194.29B | 22.47 | -433.90% | 2.31% | 6.76% | 6.96% | |
64 Neutral | $123.51B | 82.10 | -18.33% | 2.88% | 5.88% | -52.37% | |
64 Neutral | $35.21B | 22.42 | 27.14% | 3.60% | 9.26% | -3.76% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SBUX
Starbucks
108.37
16.98
18.58%
CMG
Chipotle
34.20
-19.73
-36.58%
DRI
Darden Restaurants
201.21
-1.89
-0.93%
MCD
McDonald's
273.46
-16.57
-5.71%
YUM
Yum! Brands
152.10
5.95
4.07%
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
77.15
10.48
15.72%
Starbucks Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Starbucks Completes Cash Tender Offer, Refines Debt Profile
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Starbucks Corporation completed the settlement of its previously announced cash tender offers to repurchase selected series of outstanding senior notes, electing to settle on the early settlement date and confirming it will not bu...
Business Operations and Strategy
Starbucks Launches Restructuring Under ‘Back to Starbucks’ Strategy
Neutral
May 15, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Starbucks’ board approved new steps under its “Back to Starbucks” strategy, aimed at revitalizing its coffeehouses and enhancing the customer experience to support long-term growth and value creation. The company...
Business Operations and Strategy
Starbucks Finalizes Boyu Joint Venture to Expand China
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
On April 2, 2026, Starbucks announced the closing of its previously disclosed joint venture with Boyu Capital, completing a transaction first outlined in November 2025. The deal underscores Starbucks’ view of China as a critical long-term gr...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Starbucks Shareholders Approve Governance Changes at 2026 Meeting
Neutral
Mar 30, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Starbucks Corporation held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors re-elected all eleven board nominees and backed, on an advisory basis, the compensation packages for the company’s named executive officer...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.