Starbucks (SBUX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $107.30B
• Dividend Yield: 2.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: -0.50%
• EPS Growth: -24.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 361,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 1,136,400,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,912,184
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,798,301
• PEG Ratio: -3.13
• Price to Book (P/B): -14.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 38.92
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.70
• 1Y Price Target: $96.24
• Price Target Upside: 1.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 24

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $105.00 ▲(11.21%Upside)

Starbucks' overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives aimed at improving customer experience and operational efficiency. However, financial risks due to high leverage and declining margins, along with a high valuation, temper the positive outlook. The company's strategic focus on stabilization and recovery in key markets is promising, but financial performance needs to improve for a stronger score.

Positive Factors

China Business Sale

The sale of a majority stake in the China business is a potential catalyst for stock re-acceleration, as it makes the business more asset light and reduces exposure to a volatile geopolitical environment.

Labor Investment

Starbucks' labor investment of $1.5B to $2B is expected to reduce turnover, lower training costs, and increase store productivity.

Stock Valuation

Analysts maintain an Outperform rating for Starbucks and have raised the price target to $100, indicating strong future growth potential.

Negative Factors

China Stake Sale

Significant investments are weighing on the China stake sale already baked in and the value is likely lower than rumored.

Financial Performance

Ongoing labor investments are reducing forward numbers and weighing on earnings until offsets come through.

Operational Challenges

Complex people and operational issues could take longer than expected for management to make progress on.

Starbucks Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi brands. As of October 3, 2021, it operated 16,826 company-operated and licensed stores in North America; and 17,007 company-operated and licensed stores internationally. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Starbucks primarily generates revenue through its company-operated stores, which account for a significant portion of its total earnings. These stores sell a variety of products including beverages, food items, and merchandise. Licensed stores also contribute to Starbucks' revenue through licensing fees and royalties for using the Starbucks brand. Additionally, Starbucks sells consumer packaged goods and ready-to-drink beverages through various channels including grocery stores, convenience stores, and other retail locations, further diversifying its revenue streams. The company's strategic partnerships, such as its collaboration with Nestlé to distribute Starbucks-branded products globally, also play a crucial role in expanding its market presence and enhancing revenue growth.

Starbucks Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Starbucks demonstrates strong revenue growth and effective cash flow generation, supporting its operational needs. However, high leverage and declining net margins highlight potential financial risks. The company must focus on improving profitability and reducing financial leverage to enhance long-term stability.

Income Statement

Starbucks demonstrates strong revenue growth with a 12.7% increase in total revenue from 2022 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin is robust at 36.5% for the TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 8.6% in TTM, reflecting potential challenges in controlling non-operating expenses. The EBIT margin is solid at 12.5%, but slightly down from previous periods, suggesting a need to enhance operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement shows a healthy top-line growth but slight pressure on profitability margins.

Balance Sheet

Starbucks’ balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity of $7.6 billion in TTM, indicating a debt-heavy capital structure. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, emphasizing the financial risk. Despite this, the company maintains a stable asset base of $31.6 billion, demonstrating resilience. The equity ratio is negative, highlighting potential vulnerability. While Starbucks manages its assets well, the high leverage poses a significant risk to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Starbucks shows strong cash flow generation with operating cash flow of $5.28 billion in TTM and a healthy free cash flow of $3.06 billion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high, indicating efficient cash conversion. However, a decline in operating cash flow compared to the previous year suggests the need for improved cash management. Despite minor fluctuations, the company's cash flow remains strong, supporting its operational needs and capital expenditure.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	36.18B	35.98B	32.25B	29.06B	23.52B
Gross Profit	9.71B	9.85B	8.37B	8.39B	5.06B
EBITDA	7.12B	7.40B	6.24B	7.35B	3.10B
Net Income	3.76B	4.12B	3.28B	4.20B	928.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	31.34B	29.45B	27.98B	31.39B	29.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.54B	3.95B	3.18B	6.62B	4.63B
Total Debt	25.80B	24.60B	23.80B	23.61B	25.26B
Total Liabilities	38.78B	37.43B	36.68B	36.71B	37.17B
Stockholders Equity	-7.45B	-7.99B	-8.71B	-5.32B	-7.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.32B	3.68B	2.56B	4.52B	114.20M
Operating Cash Flow	6.10B	6.01B	4.40B	5.99B	1.60B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.70B	-2.27B	-2.15B	-319.50M	-1.71B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.72B	-2.99B	-5.64B	-3.65B	1.71B

Starbucks Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 94.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBUX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 94.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.01, above the 50-day MA of 90.80, and below the 200-day MA of 94.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SBUX.

Starbucks Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YUMC	80 Outperform	$17.86B	20.04	15.73%	1.67%	2.79%	19.36%
SBUX	73 Outperform	$107.30B	34.32	-47.07%	2.54%	-0.50%	-24.28%
TXRH	73 Outperform	$12.22B	28.40	33.55%	1.37%	15.09%	31.24%
MCD	68 Neutral	$210.56B	25.98	-216.57%	2.34%	-0.22%	-3.83%
YUM	67 Neutral	$40.78B	29.25	-19.43%	1.88%	10.09%	-11.50%
BROS	65 Neutral	$9.79B	154.47	8.57%	―	30.42%	108.41%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$17.18B	10.68	-8.50%	2.94%	1.62%	-25.72%

Starbucks Corporate Events

Starbucks Approves Performance-Based Stock Units for Executives

On June 29, 2025, Starbucks‘ Board of Directors approved performance-based restricted stock units for its executive officers as part of the ‘Back to Starbucks’ strategy. This initiative aims to motivate leaders to achieve transformation goals, including reducing operating expenses and enhancing in-store experiences, with potential shareholder value creation. The awards, valued at $6,000,000, are contingent on meeting specific targets by fiscal year 2027, with payouts linked to operational achievements and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBUX) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Starbucks stock, see the SBUX Stock Forecast page.

Starbucks Updates Bylaws for Enhanced Transparency

On June 25, 2025, Starbucks Corporation’s board of directors amended the company’s bylaws to align with the SEC’s universal proxy rules and updated procedures for shareholder director nominations and business proposals. These changes are expected to enhance transparency and modernize shareholder engagement, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder interactions.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBUX) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Starbucks stock, see the SBUX Stock Forecast page.

Starbucks Expands Board with New Appointments

On June 25, 2025, Starbucks announced the expansion of its Board of Directors from nine to eleven members, appointing Marissa Mayer and Dambisa F. Moyo as new directors. This strategic move is expected to enhance Starbucks’ focus on technology, transformation, and global affairs, aligning with its ‘Back to Starbucks’ strategy to leverage digital tools and strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBUX) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Starbucks stock, see the SBUX Stock Forecast page.

Starbucks Enters New Five-Year Credit Agreement

On June 13, 2025, Starbucks Corporation entered into a new Five-Year Credit Agreement with several financial institutions, including Bank of America and Wells Fargo, among others. This new agreement led to the termination of a previous credit agreement from September 16, 2021, reflecting Starbucks’ strategic financial adjustments to support its operations and growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBUX) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Starbucks stock, see the SBUX Stock Forecast page.

Starbucks Appoints Mike Grams as COO

On June 4, 2025, Starbucks Corporation announced the appointment of Mike Grams as the new Chief Operating Officer, reinstating the position within its executive leadership team. This strategic move aims to enhance leadership accountability and operational efficiency by consolidating global coffeehouse development and supply chain under Grams’ oversight. Additionally, the company is undergoing organizational changes to strengthen its focus on sustainability and brand integration, with key leadership roles being restructured to accelerate progress towards its business goals. The departure of Brad Lerman, the Chief Legal Officer, was also announced, with a search for his successor underway.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBUX) stock is a Sell with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Starbucks stock, see the SBUX Stock Forecast page.

Starbucks Completes $1.75 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On May 8, 2025, Starbucks completed a public offering of senior notes totaling $1.75 billion, consisting of $750 million due in 2028, $500 million due in 2030, and $500 million due in 2035. This move is likely to impact the company’s financial strategy by providing additional capital, while the notes will rank equally with other senior unsecured debts and are subject to standard covenants and events of default.