Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) AI Stock Analysis

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Dutch Bros Inc

(NYSE:BROS)

Select Model

Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:

$70.00

▲(24.78% Upside)

Dutch Bros Inc's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are offset by high valuation concerns and mixed technical indicators. The company's robust growth and expansion plans are promising, but cost pressures and high P/E ratio pose risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth reflects strong market demand and successful expansion strategies, indicating robust business fundamentals and potential for sustained growth.

Expansion and Market Entry

Strategic expansion into new markets like Indiana enhances Dutch Bros' market presence and growth potential, supporting long-term revenue and brand recognition.

Loyalty Program Success

The successful loyalty program boosts customer retention and transaction volume, strengthening revenue streams and customer engagement over the long term.

Negative Factors

Increased Coffee Costs

Rising coffee costs could pressure profit margins, affecting cost management and profitability, posing a challenge to maintaining current financial performance.

Occupancy Costs

Higher occupancy costs from new shops may impact overall cost efficiency, potentially straining margins and affecting the company's ability to scale profitably.

EBITDA Margin Concerns

Challenges in sustaining EBITDA margins could indicate difficulties in cost control and operational efficiency, impacting long-term profitability and financial health.

Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$9.03B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)4.25M

Price to Earnings (P/E)116.6

Beta (1Y)1.98

Revenue Growth29.80%

EPS Growth85.84%

CountryUS

Employees18,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryRestaurants

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.26

Shares Outstanding126,960,280

10 Day Avg. Volume4,960,766

30 Day Avg. Volume4,245,895

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06

Enterprise Value/Revenue6.61

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit24.73

Enterprise Value/Ebitda40.88

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$79.54

Price Target Upside41.78% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

Dutch Bros Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDutch Bros Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and franchises drive-thru shops in the United States. The company operates through Company-Operated Shops and Franchising and Other segments. It serves through company-operated shops and online channels under Dutch Bros; Dutch Bros Coffee; Dutch Bros Rebel; Dutch Bros; and Blue Rebel brands. Dutch Bros Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Grants Pass, Oregon.

How the Company Makes MoneyDutch Bros generates revenue primarily through the sale of its beverages at its drive-thru locations. The company's revenue model is based on a high-volume, low-cost structure, allowing it to serve a large customer base efficiently. Key revenue streams include sales from drinks, food items, and branded merchandise. Additionally, Dutch Bros has a loyalty program that encourages repeat business, driving customer retention and increasing average transaction values. The company has also established partnerships with various suppliers for coffee beans and other ingredients, which helps to maintain quality while managing costs. Seasonal promotions and limited-time offerings further contribute to revenue by enticing customers to try new products.

Dutch Bros Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Shops by Type

Shops by Type
Categorizes the company's retail locations, providing insight into the business model and growth strategy through the mix of company-owned versus franchised stores.

Chart InsightsDutch Bros Inc. is aggressively expanding its company-operated shops, with a significant increase since 2019, reflecting a strategic shift towards greater control over operations. The latest earnings call highlights strong revenue growth driven by new shop openings and robust same-shop sales. Despite challenges like tariff and labor cost pressures, the company remains focused on expansion, aiming for 2,029 total shops by 2029. Initiatives like the Dutch Rewards program and innovative product offerings are enhancing customer engagement, supporting this growth trajectory.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Dutch Bros Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a strong positive sentiment with significant revenue growth, expansion into new markets, and substantial improvements in operational efficiencies, despite challenges with increasing coffee costs and occupancy expenses.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

Dutch Bros reported a 28% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, amounting to $416 million, compared to the same quarter last year.

Increase in Same-Shop Sales

System same-shop sales growth was recorded at 6.1%, driven by a 3.7% increase in transactions.

Expansion and New Markets

Dutch Bros opened 31 new shops in Q2, including entry into Indiana, reaching a total of 1,043 shops system-wide.

Adjusted EBITDA Growth

The company achieved a 37% increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching $89 million for the quarter.

Raising Full-Year Guidance

Based on strong performance, Dutch Bros raised its full-year guidance for total revenues, same-shop sales growth, and adjusted EBITDA.

Dutch Rewards Program Success

Approximately 72% of system transactions were attributed to the loyalty program, a 5-point increase from the previous year.

Operational Efficiency Improvements

New shop productivity and operational efficiencies contributed to maintaining high levels of productivity and reducing CapEx per shop by 15%.

Negative Updates

Increased Coffee Costs

Coffee costs are expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year, impacting cost of goods sold.

Occupancy Costs

Year-over-year occupancy costs increased by 80 basis points, primarily due to the impact of occupancy rates from new shops.

Challenges in Marketing Spend Efficiency

Although marketing efforts have been successful, the company acknowledged the need for continuous testing and adjustments to optimize spend efficiency.

Company Guidance

During the Dutch Bros Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a robust financial performance with a 28% increase in revenue and a 37% growth in adjusted EBITDA. System same-shop sales grew by 6.1%, driven primarily by a 3.7% increase in transactions, and company-operated same-shop sales growth was 7.8%. The company opened 31 new shops in Q2, expanding into Indiana, and plans to open at least 160 new shops in 2025. The system-wide average unit volume (AUV) remained strong at $2.05 million. Dutch Bros also reported a 5-point increase in transactions attributed to its loyalty program, Dutch Rewards, which accounted for 72% of system transactions. As a result of these strong metrics, the company raised its full-year guidance for total revenue, same-shop sales growth, and adjusted EBITDA, projecting total revenues between $1.59 billion and $1.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $285 million and $290 million for 2025.

Dutch Bros Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dutch Bros Inc shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The company has effectively managed leverage and enhanced cash flow generation. However, there are areas for improvement, such as maintaining EBITDA margins.

Income Statement

Positive

Dutch Bros Inc has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 6.68% and a strong gross profit margin of 26.72%. The net profit margin has improved to 3.94% from previous periods, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBITDA margin has slightly decreased, suggesting potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 1.23 in the TTM, reflecting better leverage management compared to previous years. Return on equity has increased to 9.97%, indicating improved efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. However, the equity ratio remains moderate, suggesting a balanced but cautious approach to asset financing.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Dutch Bros Inc has shown significant improvement in free cash flow growth, with a TTM growth rate of 125.71%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.37 indicates strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio has also improved, reflecting better cash management and operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.45B	1.28B	965.78M	739.01M	497.88M	327.41M
Gross Profit	388.04M	340.13M	251.30M	180.92M	153.30M	115.94M
EBITDA	234.74M	204.91M	118.38M	46.09M	-87.25M	26.17M
Net Income	57.23M	35.26M	1.72M	-4.75M	-12.68M	5.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.81B	2.50B	1.76B	1.19B	554.95M	259.66M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	254.41M	293.35M	133.54M	20.18M	18.51M	31.64M
Total Debt	784.10M	942.91M	676.58M	625.42M	151.93M	95.12M
Total Liabilities	1.98B	1.74B	1.09B	934.38M	344.76M	183.67M
Stockholders Equity	636.17M	537.37M	364.35M	129.12M	93.50M	75.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	72.89M	24.69M	-88.54M	-128.00M	-38.07M	12.97M
Operating Cash Flow	272.48M	246.43M	139.91M	59.88M	80.38M	53.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-198.56M	-212.07M	-227.28M	-192.57M	-121.09M	-45.57M
Financing Cash Flow	-80.43M	125.45M	200.73M	134.36M	27.58M	8.08M

Dutch Bros Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price56.10

Price Trends

50DMA

60.31

Negative

100DMA

63.18

Negative

200DMA

63.83

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.51

Negative

RSI

53.36

Neutral

STOCH

91.24

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BROS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 56.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.21, below the 50-day MA of 60.31, and below the 200-day MA of 63.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BROS.

Dutch Bros Inc Risk Analysis

Dutch Bros Inc disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dutch Bros Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Dutch Bros Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CMG	71 Outperform	$56.13B	37.00	42.59%	―	8.57%	10.72%
MCD	70 Outperform	$219.63B	26.39	―	2.30%	1.17%	2.09%
BROS	68 Neutral	$9.03B	116.61	9.99%	―	29.80%	85.84%
PZZA	65 Neutral	$1.75B	22.92	―	3.45%	-1.46%	8.10%
YUM	63 Neutral	$41.12B	28.69	―	1.89%	11.30%	-7.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SBUX	59 Neutral	$96.09B	36.92	―	2.89%	0.60%	-35.19%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BROS

Dutch Bros Inc

56.10

21.35

61.44%

CMG

Chipotle

41.63

-18.25

-30.48%

MCD

McDonald's

307.77

0.26

0.08%

PZZA

Papa John's International

53.33

3.51

7.05%

SBUX

Starbucks

84.53

-9.88

-10.46%

YUM

Yum! Brands

148.16

17.35

13.26%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 13, 2025