Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.09B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 80.2
• Beta (1Y): 2.10
• Revenue Growth: 28.93%
• EPS Growth: 69.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 127,054,184
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,307,445
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,068,215
• PEG Ratio: 0.90
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 141.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 31.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 49.95
• 1Y Price Target: $77.21
• Price Target Upside: 51.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.05B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $51.00 ▲(0.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability inflection and better leverage) and upbeat 2026 guidance for continued rapid growth. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (downtrend across moving averages with negative MACD) and a demanding valuation (very high P/E), which raise execution risk if growth or margins disappoint.

Positive Factors

Revenue and profitability scaling

Multi-year revenue scaling coupled with a clear profitability inflection establishes a more durable operating base. Higher operating and EBITDA margins in 2024–2025 improve internal funding capacity for openings, reduce reliance on external financing, and increase resilience to cyclical shocks while supporting further unit economics improvements.

Improved leverage and balance sheet

A materially lower debt-to-equity ratio and stronger ROE in 2025 increase financial flexibility for capex, conversions, and M&A while lowering interest burdens. This steadier balance sheet supports the company’s aggressive unit growth plan with less refinancing risk and greater capacity to absorb temporary shocks.

Strong unit economics and loyalty scale

Record AUVs and a large loyalty base drive persistent shop-level profitability and recurring transactions. High loyalty penetration and growing order-ahead adoption deepen customer lifetime value, raise incremental margin on same-store sales, and make new openings more economically attractive over the long term.

Negative Factors

Structurally lower gross margins

A material decline in gross margin versus earlier years reduces the earnings leverage of revenue growth and makes operating margins more dependent on cost management and SG&A control. Lower gross margins heighten sensitivity to commodity cycles and limit long-run margin expansion even with unit growth.

Thin, inconsistent free cash flow conversion

Despite rising operating cash flow, low and volatile free cash flow constrains the firm’s ability to self-fund rapid expansion or return capital. Historic FCF volatility and low conversion to earnings increase dependence on debt or equity for growth and raise execution risk if capital markets tighten.

Commodity cost pressure and limited food rollout

Elevated coffee and COGS pressure directly compresses margins and may persist through early 2026, reducing near-term profitability. Simultaneously, the food program’s inability to reach ~300 legacy shops caps system-wide upside from food and CPG, limiting diversification of revenue and diluting the ROI on rollout investments.

Dutch Bros Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dutch Bros Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and franchises drive-thru shops in the United States. The company operates through Company-Operated Shops and Franchising and Other segments. It serves through company-operated shops and online channels under Dutch Bros; Dutch Bros Coffee; Dutch Bros Rebel; Dutch Bros; and Blue Rebel brands. Dutch Bros Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Grants Pass, Oregon.

How the Company Makes Money

Dutch Bros generates revenue primarily through the sale of its coffee and beverage products. The company operates a franchise model, allowing for rapid expansion and a diversified revenue stream from franchise fees and royalties. Key revenue streams include direct sales from company-operated locations, franchise royalties, and merchandise sales. Additionally, Dutch Bros benefits from partnerships with various suppliers for coffee beans and other ingredients, which helps maintain product quality and consistency. Seasonal promotions and limited-time offerings also contribute to sales spikes, while a loyalty program encourages repeat business, enhancing customer retention and driving consistent revenue.

Dutch Bros Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue scaling and a clear profitability inflection in 2024–2025 (higher operating/EBITDA margins) alongside improved leverage in 2025. Offsetting this are slowing growth in 2025, structurally lower gross margin versus earlier years, and inconsistent/low free-cash-flow conversion with historical FCF volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over time (from $327M in 2020 to $1.64B in 2025), though growth decelerated to ~6.6% in 2025 versus >30% in 2023–2024. Profitability has improved sharply: 2025 net income rose to ~$79.8M (vs. ~$35.3M in 2024 and near breakeven in 2023), with operating profitability also stronger (2025 operating margin ~9.8% and EBITDA margin ~16.9%). The main drawback is margin pressure at the gross line versus earlier years (gross margin ~25.9% in 2025 vs. ~35.4% in 2020), and the business has a history of earnings volatility (losses in 2021–2022).

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks materially improved in 2025, with debt of ~$236.6M against equity of ~$680.8M (debt-to-equity ~0.35x), a major step down from the heavily levered 2022–2024 period (debt-to-equity ~1.75–4.84x). Returns on equity have also strengthened (ROE ~11.7% in 2025 vs. ~6.6% in 2024 and near zero in 2023). The key risk is the recent history of elevated leverage and weaker equity positioning, suggesting the balance sheet profile has improved but hasn’t been consistently conservative across the cycle.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is solid and rising (~$295.5M in 2025 vs. ~$246.4M in 2024), indicating improving cash generation. However, free cash flow remains comparatively thin at ~$54.4M in 2025 and declined year over year (free cash flow growth ~-16.8%), implying heavier reinvestment and/or capital intensity. Also, free cash flow conversion to earnings is low (free cash flow is only ~18% of net income in 2025), and the company posted negative free cash flow in multiple prior years (2021–2023), which reduces confidence in consistency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.64B	1.28B	965.78M	739.01M	497.88M
Gross Profit	423.95M	340.13M	251.30M	180.92M	153.30M
EBITDA	276.31M	204.91M	118.38M	46.09M	-87.25M
Net Income	79.84M	35.26M	1.72M	-4.75M	-12.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.01B	2.50B	1.76B	1.19B	553.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	269.40M	293.35M	133.54M	20.18M	18.51M
Total Debt	1.54B	942.91M	676.58M	625.42M	150.69M
Total Liabilities	2.11B	1.74B	1.09B	934.38M	339.97M
Stockholders Equity	680.82M	537.37M	364.35M	129.12M	94.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	54.41M	24.69M	-88.54M	-128.00M	-38.07M
Operating Cash Flow	295.55M	246.43M	139.91M	59.88M	80.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-241.07M	-212.07M	-227.28M	-192.57M	-121.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-78.43M	125.45M	200.73M	134.36M	27.58M

Dutch Bros Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 50.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BROS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.24, below the 50-day MA of 58.57, and below the 200-day MA of 61.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BROS.

Dutch Bros Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MCD	75 Outperform	$237.18B	27.86	―	2.31%	1.26%	2.87%
YUM	74 Outperform	$45.87B	29.91	―	1.84%	11.60%	-4.33%
CMG	67 Neutral	$47.53B	32.81	47.36%	―	7.31%	5.26%
BROS	65 Neutral	$8.09B	80.19	13.11%	―	28.93%	69.59%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
SBUX	59 Neutral	$109.95B	80.40	―	2.88%	2.80%	-50.71%
PZZA	57 Neutral	$1.13B	30.46	―	4.72%	-0.64%	-60.71%

Dutch Bros Inc Corporate Events

Dutch Bros Reports Strong Q4 2025 Results, Growth Outlook

Dutch Bros Inc., one of the fastest-growing brands in the U.S. quick service beverage sector, reported strong fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12, 2026, highlighting robust expansion and profitability. The company opened 55 new shops in the fourth quarter and 154 over 2025, mostly company-operated, reaching 1,136 locations across 25 states while maintaining its 19-year streak of positive same shop sales growth.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue rose 29.4% year over year to $443.6 million, with systemwide same shop sales up 7.7%, transactions up 5.4% and net income jumping to $29.2 million from $6.4 million. For the full year 2025, revenue grew 27.9% to $1.64 billion, net income increased to $117.3 million from $66.5 million and adjusted EBITDA climbed 31.4% to $302.6 million, underscoring operating leverage, record average unit volumes of $2.1 million and management’s confidence in its long-term expansion plan toward 2,029 shops by 2029.

For 2026, Dutch Bros projected total revenue between $2 billion and $2.03 billion, same shop sales growth of 3% to 5% and adjusted EBITDA between $355 million and $365 million, despite continued elevated coffee costs. The company plans at least 181 new system shop openings and capital expenditures of $270 million to $290 million, signaling ongoing aggressive growth that reinforces its competitive position in the U.S. beverage market and supports continued investment in people and growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (BROS) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dutch Bros Inc stock, see the BROS Stock Forecast page.