Dutch Bros Inc (BROS)
NYSE:BROS
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Dutch Bros Inc
(NYSE:BROS)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
▼(-5.41% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability inflection and better leverage) and upbeat 2026 guidance for continued rapid growth. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (downtrend across moving averages with negative MACD) and a demanding valuation (very high P/E), which raise execution risk if growth or margins disappoint.
Positive Factors
Revenue scale & profit inflection
Rapid multi-year top-line growth has created a much larger operating base and coincided with a clear profitability inflection in 2024–2025. Lasting scale improves leverage on SG&A and supports reinvestment, making future unit rollouts and margin recovery more durable.
Negative Factors
Structurally lower gross margins
A materially lower gross margin versus earlier years signals persistent cost or mix pressure that limits operating margin upside. Continued commodity-driven COGS headwinds reduce the firm's ability to translate revenue growth into sustained margin expansion and free cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue scale & profit inflection
Rapid multi-year top-line growth has created a much larger operating base and coincided with a clear profitability inflection in 2024–2025. Lasting scale improves leverage on SG&A and supports reinvestment, making future unit rollouts and margin recovery more durable.
Read all positive factors
Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.19B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)96.1
Beta (1Y)2.14
Revenue Growth28.93%
EPS Growth69.59%
CountryUS
Employees18,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding127,054,184
10 Day Avg. Volume3,111,328
30 Day Avg. Volume3,592,735
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.90
Price to Book (P/B)11.27
Price to Sales (P/S)4.68
P/FCF Ratio141.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit23.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda37.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.90Price Target Upside41.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.05B
Dutch Bros Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dutch Bros Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and franchises drive-thru shops in the United States. The company operates through Company-Operated Shops and Franchising and Other segments. It serves through company-operated shops and on...
How the Company Makes Money
Dutch Bros makes money primarily by selling beverages and related items to customers through its shop network. Its main revenue stream is company-operated shop sales, where revenue is recognized from transactions at the point of sale for drinks an...
Dutch Bros Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Shops by Type
Categorizes the company's retail locations, providing insight into the business model and growth strategy through the mix of company-owned versus franchised stores.
Categorizes the company's retail locations, providing insight into the business model and growth strategy through the mix of company-owned versus franchised stores.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDutch Bros Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong top-line growth, record shop economics (record AUV), robust new shop productivity, significant adjusted EBITDA expansion, strong liquidity, and progress on loyalty, digital, and food/CPG initiatives. The major near-term headwinds are elevated coffee costs and some margin pressure (notably in Q1 2026) and limitations on full food-program rollout in legacy shops. Management provided confident 2026 guidance with continued unit growth and profitable scaling, while acknowledging temporary cost pressures.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA increased 31% for full-year 2025 to $303,000,000, outpacing revenue growth; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $73,000,000, up 49% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Elevated Coffee and COGS Pressure
Coffee costs remained elevated through 2025, driving beverage/food/packaging costs to 27% of company-operated revenue (160 bps unfavorable YoY). Management expects roughly 200 bps of total COGS pressure in Q1 2026 and ~80 bps of total COGS pressure for the 2026 midpoint.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA increased 31% for full-year 2025 to $303,000,000, outpacing revenue growth; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $73,000,000, up 49% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 to total revenues of $2.00–2.03 billion (up ~22–24% y/y), at least 181 system shop openings (including 20 Clutch conversions for about $20 million), system same‑shop sales growth of ~3–5% (with Q1 expected ~4–6% and roughly 30 system shop openings assumed in Q1), adjusted EBITDA of $355–365 million (midpoint implying about a 60‑bp net adjusted EBITDA margin headwind), and capital expenditures of $270–290 million; they expect roughly 80 bps of full‑year COGS pressure (including ~200 bps in Q1 that eases through the year), anticipate the new food rollout to drive ~4% comp lift in participating shops (noting ~300 legacy shops may not accommodate food), and expect an additional ~70 bps of adjusted SG&A leverage while reiterating a long‑term company‑operated contribution margin target of ~30% as coffee costs normalize.Dutch Bros Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.64B | 1.28B | 965.78M | 739.01M | 497.88M |
| Gross Profit | 423.95M | 340.13M | 251.30M | 180.92M | 153.30M |
| EBITDA | 276.31M | 204.91M | 118.38M | 46.09M | -87.25M |
| Net Income | 79.84M | 35.26M | 1.72M | -4.75M | -12.68M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.01B | 2.50B | 1.76B | 1.19B | 553.70M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 269.40M | 293.35M | 133.54M | 20.18M | 18.51M |
| Total Debt | 1.09B | 942.91M | 676.58M | 625.42M | 150.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.11B | 1.74B | 1.09B | 934.38M | 339.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 680.82M | 537.37M | 364.35M | 129.12M | 94.52M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 54.41M | 24.69M | -88.54M | -128.00M | -38.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 295.55M | 246.43M | 139.91M | 59.88M | 80.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -241.07M | -212.07M | -227.28M | -192.57M | -121.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -78.43M | 125.45M | 200.73M | 134.36M | 27.58M |
Dutch Bros Inc Technical Analysis
Neutral
52.86
Price Trends
52.09
Positive
56.08
Negative
58.25
Negative
Market Momentum
0.61
Negative
51.74
Neutral
68.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BROS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 52.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.53, above the 50-day MA of 52.09, and below the 200-day MA of 58.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BROS.
Dutch Bros Inc Risk Analysis
Dutch Bros Inc disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dutch Bros Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dutch Bros Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $217.15B | 25.46 | -336.89% | 2.31% | 1.26% | 2.87% | |
67 Neutral | $44.40B | 32.22 | 47.00% | ― | 7.31% | 5.26% | |
65 Neutral | $9.19B | 96.10 | 12.41% | ― | 28.93% | 69.59% | |
65 Neutral | $44.72B | 26.98 | -20.57% | 1.84% | 11.60% | -4.33% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
51 Neutral | $110.06B | 83.00 | -17.22% | 2.88% | 2.80% | -50.71% | |
48 Neutral | $1.17B | 42.31 | -6.99% | 4.72% | -0.64% | -60.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc
52.86
-5.03
-8.69%
CMG
Chipotle
34.59
-14.21
-29.12%
MCD
McDonald's
304.51
-0.90
-0.30%
PZZA
Papa John's International
35.01
5.92
20.36%
SBUX
Starbucks
97.48
16.02
19.66%
YUM
Yum! Brands
161.43
19.47
13.72%
Dutch Bros Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dutch Bros Reports Strong Q4 2025 Results, Growth Outlook
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Dutch Bros Inc., one of the fastest-growing brands in the U.S. quick service beverage sector, reported strong fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12, 2026, highlighting robust expansion and profitability. The company opened 55 ne...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.