MediaAlpha (MAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $666.71M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 404.60K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 64.86%
• EPS Growth: -112.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 144
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 56,868,572
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 494,710
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 404,602
• PEG Ratio: -0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 254.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.67
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(7.53% Upside)

MediaAlpha's overall score is driven by strong technical momentum and strategic corporate actions, such as the share repurchase program and board appointment. However, significant challenges in profitability and leverage, along with a negative valuation metric, weigh heavily on the score. The mixed earnings call results further contribute to a moderate outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained high revenue growth indicates the marketplace is scaling and winning advertiser spend. Durable customer adoption across digital insurance channels supports transaction volume expansion, which underpins long-term network effects and higher monetization potential as platform liquidity increases.

Free Cash Flow Generation

Robust free cash flow growth and near-one FCF-to-net-income conversion provide lasting financial flexibility. Consistent cash generation supports reinvestment in tech, underwriting of marketplace growth, and shareholder returns without reliance on volatile equity markets or refinancing, easing strategic execution risks.

Board Expertise & Buyback

Appointment of a seasoned P&C marketing executive and a $50M repurchase program signal strategic alignment with core insurance customers and management confidence. Long-term governance and capital allocation moves can strengthen partner relationships and signal discipline in shareholder value creation.

Negative Factors

Balance Sheet Leverage

Material leverage and negative equity create structural solvency and refinancing risk. Persistent balance sheet weakness can increase funding costs, constrain strategic investments, and limit resilience to demand shocks, making long-term growth and execution dependent on deleveraging or fresh capital.

Thin Profitability & Margins

Low and negative margins suggest the business struggles to convert revenue into sustainable earnings. Structural cost or pricing pressures could keep profitability weak, limiting retained earnings and the ability to self-fund growth, and making long-term returns sensitive to margin improvements.

Concentration & Health Vertical Weakness

A large drop in under-65 health volumes and lowered guidance highlight concentration risk and revenue cyclicality across verticals. Dependence on P&C performance and take-rate pressure from private marketplace mix can reduce monetization durability and increase volatility in medium-term revenue and margins.

MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MediaAlpha, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an insurance customer acquisition platform in the United States. It optimizes customer acquisition in various verticals of property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California. MediaAlpha, Inc. is a subsidiary of White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.

How the Company Makes Money

MediaAlpha generates revenue primarily through a performance-based model, where it earns money by charging insurance advertisers for leads, clicks, and impressions generated through its platform. The company typically takes a commission on each transaction facilitated through its marketplace, allowing it to scale its earnings as more advertisers utilize its services. Key revenue streams include lead generation services, cost-per-action (CPA) campaigns, and subscription fees for premium platform features. Additionally, MediaAlpha has established significant partnerships with major insurance providers and publishers, which enhance its marketplace offerings and contribute to its revenue growth.

MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MediaAlpha shows positive revenue growth and strong cash flow generation but faces significant challenges in profitability and leverage. The negative net profit margin and high debt levels pose risks to financial stability. Improving cost efficiency and reducing leverage are crucial for enhancing the company's financial position.

Income Statement

MediaAlpha's revenue has shown a positive growth trend, with a TTM growth rate of 4.41%. However, profitability is a concern, as indicated by a negative net profit margin of -0.61% in the TTM. The gross profit margin is relatively low at 15.53%, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are also modest at 0.78% and 1.10%, respectively. The company needs to improve its cost management and profitability to enhance its financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant leverage issues, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -41.87 in the TTM, indicating high financial risk. The return on equity is positive at 14.28%, suggesting some efficiency in generating returns from equity. However, the negative stockholders' equity is a critical concern, reflecting potential solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 21.68% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.48, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.99, suggesting effective cash flow management. Despite the positive cash flow trends, the company needs to address its profitability challenges to sustain cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.12B	864.70M	388.15M	459.07M	645.27M	584.81M
Gross Profit	171.71M	143.57M	66.71M	70.06M	101.52M	85.38M
EBITDA	89.81M	60.50M	-28.35M	-29.24M	5.50M	23.02M
Net Income	-1.14M	16.63M	-40.42M	-57.67M	-5.28M	14.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	266.23M	262.45M	153.93M	170.08M	289.80M	210.34M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	72.34M	43.27M	17.27M	14.54M	50.56M	23.55M
Total Debt	155.69M	162.44M	174.30M	186.29M	190.78M	182.67M
Total Liabilities	332.01M	308.68M	248.35M	256.17M	351.37M	315.45M
Stockholders Equity	-29.75M	2.38M	-10.29M	-15.99M	-4.34M	-33.77M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	87.23M	45.62M	20.16M	28.18M	27.97M	51.11M
Operating Cash Flow	87.58M	45.87M	20.23M	28.27M	28.62M	51.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-347.00K	-654.00K	-73.00K	-49.77M	-650.00K	-10.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-47.19M	-19.22M	-17.43M	-14.52M	-961.00K	-27.59M

MediaAlpha Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.16, below the 50-day MA of 12.11, and below the 200-day MA of 11.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.42 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.99 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAX.

MediaAlpha Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVER	77 Outperform	$816.20M	15.72	36.81%	―	57.83%	293.63%
SSTK	76 Outperform	$705.08M	11.87	10.76%	7.14%	13.06%	66.19%
TBLA	72 Outperform	$1.15B	55.98	2.63%	―	10.96%	―
MAX	61 Neutral	$666.71M	-466.67	―	―	64.86%	-112.92%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
PERI	60 Neutral	$355.76M	-33.54	-1.56%	―	-28.29%	-126.12%
NXDR	58 Neutral	$768.53M	-12.08	-14.07%	―	6.65%	50.32%

MediaAlpha Corporate Events

MediaAlpha Updates Bylaws for Improved Governance

On December 10, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved significant amendments and restatements to the company’s by-laws. These changes, effective immediately, include updates to stockholder meeting procedures, director election and compensation provisions, and reflect recent amendments to Delaware law. The revisions aim to streamline corporate governance and enhance compliance with legal standards, potentially impacting the company’s operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.

MediaAlpha Board Member Resigns Amid Transition

On December 4, 2025, Christopher Delehanty resigned from the Board of Directors of MediaAlpha, Inc., a move that is part of a broader Board transition process after the company ceased being a controlled company in 2024. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.

MediaAlpha Appoints Ramon Jones to Board of Directors

On November 10, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. appointed Ramon Jones to its Board of Directors, filling a vacancy in Class I. Jones, formerly the Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company, brings over 25 years of experience in the property and casualty insurance industry. His expertise in digital marketing and customer acquisition is expected to bolster MediaAlpha’s market-leading position. The appointment reflects MediaAlpha’s commitment to enhancing its strategic direction and value creation strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.