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MediaAlpha
(NYSE:MAX)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(2.82% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score reflects improving fundamentals and cash generation plus a strong earnings-call outlook (record results, supportive guidance, and sizable free-cash-flow and buyback plans). Offsetting these positives are balance-sheet fragility/leverage sensitivity and mixed near-term technical momentum, while valuation (low P/E) provides additional support.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
MediaAlpha's recent TTM operating cash flow and near-equal free cash flow demonstrate durable cash conversion and improved cash efficiency. Strong FCF supports buybacks, TRA repurchases and deleveraging, providing financial flexibility to invest in product and weather cyclical advertiser spend shifts.
Negative Factors
Fragile capitalization structure
Despite recent debt reduction, the very small equity base and historically elevated debt-to-equity leave MediaAlpha sensitive to earnings swings. A modest profit setback could quickly impair capitalization, constrain strategic moves, and force reliance on revolver capacity or dilutive financing to maintain operations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
MediaAlpha's recent TTM operating cash flow and near-equal free cash flow demonstrate durable cash conversion and improved cash efficiency. Strong FCF supports buybacks, TRA repurchases and deleveraging, providing financial flexibility to invest in product and weather cyclical advertiser spend shifts.
Read all positive factors
MediaAlpha (MAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$806.85M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)941.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.3
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth13.84%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees147
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.75
Shares Outstanding52,975,710
10 Day Avg. Volume1,235,676
30 Day Avg. Volume941,115
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)175.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio11.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.86Price Target Upside13.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.31B
MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) runs a dedicated platform in the United States designed to enhance customer acquisition within the insurance sector. It specializes in streamlining the process of attracting new clients across various insurance segments, inc...
How the Company Makes Money
MediaAlpha primarily makes money by facilitating performance-based transactions between insurance advertisers (carriers, agencies, and other distributors) and consumer traffic sources (publishers/partners) via its platform. Revenue is generally ge...
MediaAlpha Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed multiple strong operational and financial achievements—record revenue, double-digit YoY growth in core metrics, sizable share repurchases, an accretive TRA buyback, and constructive Q3 guidance—while acknowledging manageable near-term headwinds such as a temporary take-rate dip, a small under-65 health drag, and remaining customer concentration risk. Management described broadening advertiser participation and meaningful AI-driven product advantages, supporting a positive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Revenue of $317.0M in Q2, up 26% year-over-year and above the high end of guidance.
Negative Updates
Mid-Quarter Take-Rate Dip
Take rates dipped in May/early June due to partner-specific short-term investments, causing contribution margin to be weaker than modeled in the quarter before recovering by quarter end.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Revenue of $317.0M in Q2, up 26% year-over-year and above the high end of guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q3 the company guided revenue of $330M–$355M (≈+12% YoY at the midpoint), contribution of $51.5M–$54.5M (≈+16% YoY at the midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA of $32M–$35M (≈+15% YoY at the midpoint), which includes an approximately $1M year‑over‑year decline in contribution from under‑65 health; excluding under‑65 health they expect contribution to rise ~20% and adjusted EBITDA ~21% YoY at the midpoint, with the health vertical ~1% of Q3 revenue. For the remainder of 2026 they expect $90M–$100M of free cash flow and to complete the vast majority of the $45M remaining under their $100M buyback authorization by year‑end; they closed Q2 with $23.7M cash and $30M undrawn on the revolver, have repurchased ~$41M YTD ($88M over the past four quarters, ~13% of outstanding shares), and in June repurchased $69M of TRA liability for $31M (55% discount), recording a $38M gain and projecting a mid‑teens unlevered IRR.MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
61
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.22B | 1.11B | 864.70M | 388.15M | 459.07M | 645.27M |
| Gross Profit | 180.09M | 164.56M | 143.57M | 66.71M | 70.06M | 101.52M |
| EBITDA | 977.00K | -96.57M | 60.50M | -28.35M | 45.85M | 1.66M |
| Net Income | 97.22M | 25.62M | 16.63M | -40.42M | -57.67M | -5.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 359.82M | 383.83M | 262.45M | 153.93M | 170.08M | 289.80M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.75M | 46.88M | 43.27M | 17.27M | 14.54M | 50.56M |
| Total Debt | 176.71M | 155.20M | 162.44M | 174.30M | 186.29M | 190.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 364.76M | 413.02M | 308.68M | 248.35M | 256.17M | 351.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.41M | 4.16M | 2.38M | -10.29M | -15.99M | -4.34M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.28M | 65.26M | 45.62M | 20.16M | 28.18M | 27.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 57.21M | 65.60M | 45.87M | 20.23M | 28.27M | 28.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -924.00K | -340.00K | -654.00K | -73.00K | -49.77M | -650.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -117.92M | -61.65M | -19.22M | -17.43M | -14.52M | -961.00K |
MediaAlpha Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.13
Price Trends
12.33
Positive
10.74
Positive
10.94
Positive
Market Momentum
0.10
Positive
47.34
Neutral
59.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.13, above the 50-day MA of 12.33, and above the 200-day MA of 10.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MAX.
MediaAlpha Risk Analysis
MediaAlpha disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MediaAlpha reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MediaAlpha Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $860.55M | 7.44 | 50.29% | ― | 22.75% | 144.55% | |
69 Neutral | $1.09B | 9.42 | 12.80% | ― | 8.00% | 991.05% | |
68 Neutral | $806.85M | 7.25 | 8214.45% | ― | 13.84% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $998.07M | -32.06 | -7.27% | ― | 9.79% | 53.33% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $385.04M | -28.61 | -1.42% | ― | 2.86% | -195.80% | |
49 Neutral | $210.23M | -0.96 | -39.81% | 24.73% | -10.81% | -409.24% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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MediaAlpha Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MediaAlpha Reduces Future Tax Receivables Agreement Liability
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 25, 2026, MediaAlpha, Inc. entered into an Assignment, Assumption and Termination Agreement with Insignia A QL Holdings, LLC and Insignia QL Holdings, LLC, under which MediaAlpha purchased Insignia’s interest in its Tax Receivables A...
Executive/Board Changes
MediaAlpha adds veteran finance executive to board
Positive
May 18, 2026
MediaAlpha, a leading customer acquisition infrastructure provider for insurance carriers and a major programmatic platform for online insurance referrals, has expanded its governance bench with the appointment of veteran finance executive Lauren ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MediaAlpha Shareholders Back Board Nominees and Auditor
Positive
May 6, 2026
MediaAlpha, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 5, 2026, with approximately 85.2% of eligible Class A and Class B shares represented in person or by proxy. Shareholders elected Venmal (Raji) Arasu and Kathy Vrabeck as Class II...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.