MediaAlpha (MAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $688.96M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 453.67K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: 116.58%
• EPS Growth: 62.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 144
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 92
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 56,370,304
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 652,340
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 453,674
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 53.54
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 50.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(0.10% Upside)

MediaAlpha's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including negative profit margins and high leverage. While there are positive trends in revenue and cash flow, the company's valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provided some positive guidance, but significant challenges remain in the health insurance vertical.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

MediaAlpha reported strong Q1 results, with Transaction Value, revenue, and adj. EBITDA all coming in solidly ahead of expectations.

Market Position

The stock has a strong setup to outperform, supported by peer-leading P&C growth and scale that promote double-digit earnings growth over the long term.

Regulatory Environment

With solid P&C operating momentum, the regulatory overhang removed, Health estimates now reset, and an undemanding valuation, investor sentiment should improve going forward.

Negative Factors

Industry Challenges

Lower adjusted EBITDA is expected due to a decrease in the higher-margin health vertical.

Regulatory Costs

Management announced a settlement with the FTC that will result in a $45 million penalty and additional compliance costs.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Uncertainty from the ongoing FTC investigation regarding the company’s under-65 health business will keep the stock under pressure in the near term.

MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE: MAX) operates as a leading marketing technology company that focuses on the development of a transparent and efficient platform for the buying and selling of insurance and other vertical-specific advertising. The company serves sectors like property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance, providing a unique marketplace where advertisers can acquire high-intent consumers efficiently.

How the Company Makes Money

MediaAlpha generates revenue primarily through its exchange platform, which facilitates the buying and selling of consumer leads and clicks across various insurance and other verticals. The company earns money by charging a transaction fee on each exchange conducted on its platform. It partners with insurance carriers, agents, and brokers, as well as third-party advertisers and publishers, to ensure a broad network of participants. This business model relies on the high volume of transactions and the value of the data-driven leads it provides, enhancing advertisers' ability to target and acquire potential customers effectively.

MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MediaAlpha demonstrates a mixed financial profile. Revenue growth is on an upward trend, but profitability margins are thin, and the company faces high leverage risks. Cash flow performance is a strength, showing efficient cash generation, but balance sheet constraints could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Income Statement

The company shows a mixed income performance with a TTM gross profit margin of 15.95% and net profit margin of 1.58%. Revenue growth has been volatile with recent TTM growth of 15.90%, suggesting improving sales. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low at 4.09% and 3.94% respectively, indicating potential cost structure challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.12. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 199.49%, driven by low equity levels. The equity ratio is weak at 3.30%, suggesting financial instability and reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reflects a solid position with a TTM free cash flow of $67.62 million and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.30. The free cash flow to net income ratio is notably high at 4.28, indicating efficient cash generation relative to reported profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.08B	864.70M	388.15M	459.07M	645.27M	584.81M
Gross Profit	167.03M	143.57M	66.71M	70.06M	101.52M	85.38M
EBITDA	11.85M	44.53M	-34.43M	46.60M	2.15M	20.72M
Net Income	-6.57M	16.63M	-40.42M	-72.45M	-8.47M	10.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	249.42M	262.45M	153.93M	170.08M	289.80M	213.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	85.38M	43.27M	17.27M	14.54M	50.56M	23.55M
Total Debt	158.02M	162.44M	174.30M	183.07M	186.80M	182.67M
Total Liabilities	306.38M	308.68M	248.35M	256.17M	351.37M	315.45M
Stockholders Equity	-3.77M	2.38M	-10.29M	-15.99M	-4.34M	-101.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	71.69M	45.62M	20.16M	28.18M	27.97M	51.11M
Operating Cash Flow	72.01M	45.87M	20.23M	28.27M	28.62M	51.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-722.00K	-654.00K	-73.00K	-49.77M	-650.00K	-10.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-14.56M	-19.22M	-17.43M	-14.52M	-961.00K	-27.59M

MediaAlpha Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.33, below the 50-day MA of 10.53, and below the 200-day MA of 10.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAX.

MediaAlpha Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVER	73 Outperform	$852.58M	18.81	34.34%	―	92.91%	―
OPRA	73 Outperform	$1.38B	20.89	9.18%	4.78%	26.71%	-23.67%
TEAD	57 Neutral	$174.75M	―	-16.75%	―	19.67%	-1183.48%
THRY	57 Neutral	$580.84M	―	-42.15%	―	-13.60%	69.70%
Sector *	56 Neutral	HK$68.02B	0.80	-5.00%	5.16%	-0.85%	-12.60%
NXDR	49 Neutral	$719.24M	―	-14.27%	―	9.65%	56.50%
MAX	47 Neutral	$688.96M	35.76	-115.07%	―	116.58%	62.29%

MediaAlpha Corporate Events

MediaAlpha Settles FTC Claims with $45 Million Agreement

On August 6, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) regarding claims of unfair or deceptive practices. The FTC approved a Consent Order requiring MediaAlpha to pay $45 million in monetary relief and implement various compliance measures related to its advertising and marketing practices. The settlement aims to address issues concerning the company’s handling of consumer information and adherence to telemarketing rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.

MediaAlpha Amends Credit Agreement for Financial Flexibility

On August 4, 2025, MediaAlpha subsidiaries QuoteLab, LLC and QL Holdings LLC amended their credit agreement, extending the maturity dates for certain loans and commitments. This amendment affects $138.1 million in term loans and $45.6 million in revolving commitments, providing financial flexibility. Additionally, MediaAlpha announced strong financial results for Q2 2025, with a 41% revenue increase and a 71% growth in transaction value in the property & casualty vertical. Despite a net loss, the company resolved an FTC inquiry and anticipates continued growth in 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.

MediaAlpha Promotes Amy Yeh to Chief Technology Officer

On June 30, 2025, MediaAlpha announced the promotion of Amy Yeh to Chief Technology Officer, succeeding Eugene Nonko, who transitioned to the role of Chief Architect. This leadership change is part of a strategic move to enhance the company’s technology strategy and execution, with Amy Yeh expected to continue driving product innovation and operational scale within MediaAlpha’s insurance marketplace.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.

MediaAlpha Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 14, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. successfully elected two Class II directors, Bradley Hunt and Steven Yi, to serve until 2028. Additionally, the stockholders approved the executive compensation for 2024 and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.