Mediaalpha, Inc. (MAX)
NYSE:MAX
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MediaAlpha
(NYSE:MAX)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-0.52% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and strong cash generation but is held back by balance-sheet fragility (thin equity/high leverage). The earnings call was supportive with positive guidance, free cash flow outlook, and buybacks, while technicals remain weak with the stock below key moving averages and negative momentum. Valuation is moderate-to-demanding at ~28x earnings without a dividend cushion in the provided data.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow and buybacks
Consistent, material free cash flow (reported $99M in 2025) and an expanded $100M repurchase program show durable cash conversion and capital return capacity. This supports balance sheet repair, shareholder returns, and strategic reinvestment even as revenue mix shifts, sustaining financial optionality.
Negative Factors
Fragile balance sheet and high leverage
A thin equity base and elevated leverage materially increase downside risk and reduce financial flexibility. Even after debt reduction, limited equity cushion amplifies volatility, constrains capital allocation under stress, and increases sensitivity to covenant tests or adverse revenue swings over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow and buybacks
Consistent, material free cash flow (reported $99M in 2025) and an expanded $100M repurchase program show durable cash conversion and capital return capacity. This supports balance sheet repair, shareholder returns, and strategic reinvestment even as revenue mix shifts, sustaining financial optionality.
Read all positive factors
MediaAlpha (MAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$615.93M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)829.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.4
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth64.86%
EPS Growth-112.92%
CountryUS
Employees144
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding56,207,410
10 Day Avg. Volume466,621
30 Day Avg. Volume829,422
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.59
Price to Book (P/B)175.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio11.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-17.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.64Price Target Upside42.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.24B
MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MediaAlpha, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an insurance customer acquisition platform in the United States. It optimizes customer acquisition in various verticals of property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance. ...
How the Company Makes Money
MediaAlpha makes money by monetizing transactions executed through its programmatic marketplace for insurance customer acquisition. Its core revenue model is marketplace-based: (1) Demand-side customers (typically insurance carriers, agencies, and...
MediaAlpha Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple material positives: record full-year milestones, strong P&C-driven transaction value growth, meaningful free cash flow, an expanded buyback program, and AI-driven demand/efficiency tailwinds. The primary negatives were a significant contraction in the Under-65 Health business, which materially reduced reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, seasonal timing effects that modestly pressured Q4 transaction value, and one-time tax/FTC cash impacts. On a core basis (excluding Under-65 Health), operating metrics and guidance are strong, and management expects durable momentum in P&C and continued capital returns in 2026.Positive Updates
Record Fiscal 2025 Milestones
Achieved first-time milestones of $2.0 billion in transaction value, $1.0 billion in revenue, and $100 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Under-65 Health Business
Under-65 Health revenue fell from $41 million in 2024 to approximately $7 million in 2025 (approximately an 83% decline); Q4 health vertical declined ~40% YoY. Management narrowed the scope of the business, reducing its contribution materially.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Fiscal 2025 Milestones
Achieved first-time milestones of $2.0 billion in transaction value, $1.0 billion in revenue, and $100 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q1 2026 management guided transaction value of $570–$595M (≈+23% YoY at the midpoint) with P&C ≈+35% YoY and Health transaction value down ~50% YoY; revenue of $285–$305M (≈+12% YoY at the midpoint); adjusted EBITDA of $29.5–$31.5M (≈+4% YoY at the midpoint) — and excluding Under‑65 Health adjusted EBITDA growth of ≈+25% YoY at the midpoint; they noted Q4 transaction value was $613M (+23% YoY) with P&C +38% and Health −40%, Q4 revenue $291M (−3% reported, +9% ex‑Under‑65 Health), Q4 adjusted EBITDA $30.8M (−16% YoY), a Q4 take rate of 7.6% (expected to be higher in Q1), 66% conversion of contribution to adjusted EBITDA, contribution less adjusted EBITDA to be ~$0.5–$1.0M higher than Q4, 2025 free cash flow of $99M, year‑end cash $47M, a raised buyback authorization to $100M (completed ~$47M repurchases in 2025, ~7% of shares; Q4 repurchases ~$14M / 1.1M shares), and 2026 free cash flow expected $90–$100M (including the $11.5M FTC payment; ex‑FTC ~$101–$111M) while Health is expected to be a mid‑single‑digit percentage of total transaction value.MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.11B | 864.70M | 388.15M | 459.07M | 645.27M |
| Gross Profit | 164.56M | 143.57M | 66.71M | 70.06M | 101.52M |
| EBITDA | -96.57M | 60.50M | -28.35M | -29.24M | 5.50M |
| Net Income | 25.62M | 16.63M | -40.42M | -57.67M | -5.28M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 383.83M | 262.45M | 153.93M | 170.08M | 289.80M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.88M | 43.27M | 17.27M | 14.54M | 50.56M |
| Total Debt | 155.20M | 162.44M | 174.30M | 186.29M | 190.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 413.02M | 308.68M | 248.35M | 256.17M | 351.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.16M | 2.38M | -10.29M | -15.99M | -4.34M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 65.26M | 45.62M | 20.16M | 28.18M | 27.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 65.60M | 45.87M | 20.23M | 28.27M | 28.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -340.00K | -654.00K | -73.00K | -49.77M | -650.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.65M | -19.22M | -17.43M | -14.52M | -961.00K |
MediaAlpha Technical Analysis
Positive
9.55
Price Trends
9.32
Positive
10.85
Negative
11.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
50.99
Neutral
63.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.54, above the 50-day MA of 9.32, and below the 200-day MA of 11.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAX.
MediaAlpha Risk Analysis
MediaAlpha disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MediaAlpha reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MediaAlpha Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $553.42M | 9.83 | 54.21% | ― | 57.83% | 293.63% | |
65 Neutral | $599.67M | -10.59 | 7.88% | 7.14% | 13.06% | 66.19% | |
61 Neutral | $910.52M | 33.98 | 4.51% | ― | 10.96% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
56 Neutral | $615.93M | 28.43 | -477.82% | ― | 64.86% | -112.92% | |
55 Neutral | $394.98M | -50.84 | -1.15% | ― | -28.29% | -126.12% | |
51 Neutral | $558.32M | -14.97 | -12.56% | ― | 6.65% | 50.32% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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MediaAlpha Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MediaAlpha Secures New Five-Year Credit Facilities Agreement
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On March 25, 2026, MediaAlpha subsidiaries QuoteLab and QL Holdings amended and restated their existing credit agreement, putting in place a new five-year $150 million senior secured term loan and a $60 million senior secured revolving credit faci...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
MediaAlpha Announces Board Change and Governance Transition Plan
Neutral
Mar 19, 2026
On March 16, 2026, MediaAlpha director Lara Sweet informed the company she would not stand for reelection at the 2026 annual meeting, ending her term on May 5, 2026, with the company stating her departure did not stem from any disagreement over op...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
MediaAlpha Posts Record 2025 Results, Expands Buyback Plan
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
MediaAlpha reported record full-year 2025 results on February 23, 2026, with revenue rising 29% to $1.1 billion, transaction value climbing 45% to $2.2 billion, and net income reaching $26.8 million, supported by strong growth in its property and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.