Mediaalpha, Inc. (MAX)
NYSE:MAX
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MediaAlpha
(NYSE:MAX)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▼(-15.51% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score reflects improving operations and cash generation plus a positive guidance/FCF outlook from the latest earnings call, balanced against elevated balance-sheet risk and uneven operating profitability. Technicals are the biggest near-term drag, with the stock trading below key moving averages and bearish momentum signals.
Positive Factors
Marketplace scale and network effects
MediaAlpha's large, insurance-focused marketplace and broad publisher/demand relationships create durable network effects. $2.2B in ad spend and 141M referrals indicate entrenched scale across P&C, health and life verticals, supporting steady lead flow, pricing leverage, and competitive advantage over time.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thin equity base
A high debt-to-equity ratio and a very small equity base leave limited balance-sheet cushion against shocks. This amplifies solvency and covenant risk if revenue or margins deteriorate, constrains strategic optionality, and makes the company sensitive to earnings volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Marketplace scale and network effects
MediaAlpha's large, insurance-focused marketplace and broad publisher/demand relationships create durable network effects. $2.2B in ad spend and 141M referrals indicate entrenched scale across P&C, health and life verticals, supporting steady lead flow, pricing leverage, and competitive advantage over time.
Read all positive factors
MediaAlpha (MAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$521.25M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)588.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth15.66%
EPS Growth138.39%
CountryUS
Employees144
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.70
Shares Outstanding54,062,157
10 Day Avg. Volume536,024
30 Day Avg. Volume588,957
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.59
Price to Book (P/B)175.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio11.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-10.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.79Price Target Upside37.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.26B
MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MediaAlpha, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an insurance customer acquisition platform in the United States. It optimizes customer acquisition in various verticals of property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance. ...
How the Company Makes Money
MediaAlpha makes money by monetizing transactions executed through its programmatic marketplace for insurance customer acquisition. Its core revenue model is marketplace-based: (1) Demand-side customers (typically insurance carriers, agencies, and...
MediaAlpha Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat guidance, core business growth (ex‑under‑65 Health) was strong (+28% YoY), contribution‑focused guidance implies healthy mid‑teens to high‑teens YoY growth for Q2, and management set a robust free cash flow target ($90M–$100M) while executing on share repurchases and refinancing to extend maturities. Notable negatives included a low cash balance in Q1 driven by one‑time payments (FTC, bonuses, tax receivable), a strategic de‑emphasis of under‑65 Health (reducing near‑term contribution), the decision to stop reporting transaction value (which may reduce metric transparency for some investors), and an expectation that growth will moderate in the back half of 2026 amid macro and underwriting uncertainty. On balance, the positives (beats, strong core growth, product/LLM tailwinds, shareholder returns and FCF outlook) outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Revenue Above Guidance
Reported revenue of $310.0M for Q1, coming in above the high end of guidance and driven by a favorable mix shift to the higher-margin open marketplace.
Negative Updates
Q1 Cash Impacted by One‑Time Uses
Ended Q1 with $26.1M cash after several one‑time cash uses: an $11.5M final FTC payment, annual employee bonuses (mid‑to‑high single‑digit millions), and payments under the tax receivable agreement; these items reduced Q1 free cash flow.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Above Guidance
Reported revenue of $310.0M for Q1, coming in above the high end of guidance and driven by a favorable mix shift to the higher-margin open marketplace.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MediaAlpha guided Q2 2026 revenue of $290M–$310M (≈+19% YoY at the midpoint), contribution of $45.5M–$48.5M (≈+18% YoY at the midpoint, including an ~$2M YoY decline from under‑65 Health) and adjusted EBITDA of $28M–$30.5M (≈+19% YoY at the midpoint); excluding under‑65 Health they expect contribution +25% and adjusted EBITDA +31% YoY, with the health vertical ~1% of Q2 revenue. They will shift public guidance to contribution (ceasing disclosure of transaction value) and reiterate full‑year free cash flow of $90M–$100M. For context, Q1 actuals were revenue $310M and adjusted EBITDA $31.4M (+7% YoY) with 64% of contribution converting to adjusted EBITDA; quarter‑end cash was $26.1M with $45M undrawn on a $60M revolver, and the company put in place a $150M senior secured term loan and $60M revolver maturing March 2031 (annual amortization ≈$7.5M). They repurchased ~2.6M shares for ~$25M (~4% of the company) and expect to deploy most of the remaining ~$60M of their $100M buyback authorization in 2026.MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.16B | 1.11B | 864.70M | 388.15M | 459.07M | 645.27M |
| Gross Profit | 172.60M | 164.56M | 143.57M | 66.71M | 70.06M | 101.52M |
| EBITDA | -40.54M | -96.57M | 60.50M | -28.35M | -29.24M | 5.50M |
| Net Income | 39.04M | 25.62M | 16.63M | -40.42M | -57.67M | -5.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 367.71M | 383.83M | 262.45M | 153.93M | 170.08M | 289.80M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.05M | 46.88M | 43.27M | 17.27M | 14.54M | 50.56M |
| Total Debt | 7.17M | 155.20M | 162.44M | 174.30M | 186.29M | 190.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 396.81M | 413.02M | 308.68M | 248.35M | 256.17M | 351.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.92M | 4.16M | 2.38M | -10.29M | -15.99M | -4.34M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 40.02M | 65.26M | 45.62M | 20.16M | 28.18M | 27.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 40.34M | 65.60M | 45.87M | 20.23M | 28.27M | 28.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -325.00K | -340.00K | -654.00K | -73.00K | -49.77M | -650.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -77.53M | -61.65M | -19.22M | -17.43M | -14.52M | -961.00K |
MediaAlpha Technical Analysis
Negative
10.06
Price Trends
9.34
Negative
9.76
Negative
10.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.35
Positive
40.83
Neutral
27.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.97, above the 50-day MA of 9.34, and below the 200-day MA of 10.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAX.
MediaAlpha Risk Analysis
MediaAlpha disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MediaAlpha reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MediaAlpha Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $661.83M | 7.42 | 53.39% | ― | 24.49% | 181.60% | |
79 Outperform | $1.35B | 3.70 | 11.91% | ― | 9.62% | 880.15% | |
64 Neutral | $785.66M | -11.86 | -10.32% | ― | 6.78% | 52.54% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
57 Neutral | $354.37M | 12.05 | -1.42% | ― | -11.71% | -162.11% | |
55 Neutral | $521.25M | 11.32 | -568.82% | ― | 15.66% | 138.39% | |
53 Neutral | $572.38M | -3.10 | -3.62% | 7.14% | -1.77% | -152.61% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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MediaAlpha Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
MediaAlpha adds veteran finance executive to board
Positive
May 18, 2026
MediaAlpha, a leading customer acquisition infrastructure provider for insurance carriers and a major programmatic platform for online insurance referrals, has expanded its governance bench with the appointment of veteran finance executive Lauren ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MediaAlpha Shareholders Back Board Nominees and Auditor
Positive
May 6, 2026
MediaAlpha, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 5, 2026, with approximately 85.2% of eligible Class A and Class B shares represented in person or by proxy. Shareholders elected Venmal (Raji) Arasu and Kathy Vrabeck as Class II...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MediaAlpha Secures New Five-Year Credit Facilities Agreement
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On March 25, 2026, MediaAlpha subsidiaries QuoteLab and QL Holdings amended and restated their existing credit agreement, putting in place a new five-year $150 million senior secured term loan and a $60 million senior secured revolving credit faci...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
MediaAlpha Announces Board Change and Governance Transition Plan
Neutral
Mar 19, 2026
On March 16, 2026, MediaAlpha director Lara Sweet informed the company she would not stand for reelection at the 2026 annual meeting, ending her term on May 5, 2026, with the company stating her departure did not stem from any disagreement over op...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
MediaAlpha Posts Record 2025 Results, Expands Buyback Plan
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
MediaAlpha reported record full-year 2025 results on February 23, 2026, with revenue rising 29% to $1.1 billion, transaction value climbing 45% to $2.2 billion, and net income reaching $26.8 million, supported by strong growth in its property and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.