MediaAlpha (MAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $711.13M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 407.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: 148.62%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 144
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 82
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 55,895,645
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 382,537
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 407,296
• PEG Ratio: -5.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 73.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.58
• 1Y Price Target: $16.80
• Price Target Upside: 54.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(1.38%Upside)

MediaAlpha's overall stock score reflects a combination of strong earnings call insights and solid cash flow performance, offset by a high P/E valuation and balance sheet risks. The company's positive growth projections, particularly in the P&C sector, are encouraging, but concerns about leverage and sector-specific challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Advertising Growth

Auto insurers will ramp up advertising-for-growth spend beyond sell-side expectations, benefiting MAX which derives approximately 65% of its revenues from the auto insurance direct-to-consumer channel.

Financial Performance

MediaAlpha reported strong Q1 results, with Transaction Value, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA all coming in solidly ahead of expectations.

Market Position

The franchise has good long-term value given its leading position in digital P&C insurance advertising.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Valuation reflects a less stable EBITDA profile and near-term profitability challenges for MAX's customers in the P&C vertical.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Uncertainty from the ongoing FTC investigation regarding the company’s under-65 health business will keep the stock under pressure in the near term.

Tariff Impact

The potential for higher tariff rates presents additional uncertainty, which could affect carrier spend.

MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MediaAlpha, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an insurance customer acquisition platform in the United States. It optimizes customer acquisition in various verticals of property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California. MediaAlpha, Inc. is a subsidiary of White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.

How the Company Makes Money

MediaAlpha generates revenue primarily through its exchange platform, which facilitates the buying and selling of consumer leads and clicks across various insurance and other verticals. The company earns money by charging a transaction fee on each exchange conducted on its platform. It partners with insurance carriers, agents, and brokers, as well as third-party advertisers and publishers, to ensure a broad network of participants. This business model relies on the high volume of transactions and the value of the data-driven leads it provides, enhancing advertisers' ability to target and acquire potential customers effectively.

MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MediaAlpha demonstrates mixed financial performance. While revenue growth is improving, profitability margins are thin, and the company faces high leverage risks. Cash flow is a bright spot with efficient cash generation, but balance sheet instability due to high debt levels is a concern.

Income Statement

The company shows a mixed income performance with a TTM gross profit margin of 15.95% and net profit margin of 1.58%. Revenue growth has been volatile with recent TTM growth of 15.90%, suggesting improving sales. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low at 4.09% and 3.94% respectively, indicating potential cost structure challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.12. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 199.49%, driven by low equity levels. The equity ratio is weak at 3.30%, suggesting financial instability and reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reflects a solid position with a TTM free cash flow of $67.62 million and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.30. The free cash flow to net income ratio is notably high at 4.28, indicating efficient cash generation relative to reported profits.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	864.70M	388.15M	459.07M	645.27M	584.81M
Gross Profit	143.57M	66.71M	70.06M	101.52M	85.38M
EBITDA	44.53M	-34.43M	46.60M	2.15M	20.72M
Net Income	16.63M	-40.42M	-72.45M	-8.47M	10.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	262.45M	153.93M	170.08M	289.80M	213.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	43.27M	17.27M	14.54M	50.56M	23.55M
Total Debt	162.44M	174.30M	183.07M	186.80M	182.67M
Total Liabilities	308.68M	248.35M	256.17M	351.37M	315.45M
Stockholders Equity	2.38M	-10.29M	-15.99M	-4.34M	-101.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	45.62M	20.16M	28.18M	27.97M	51.11M
Operating Cash Flow	45.87M	20.23M	28.27M	28.62M	51.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-654.00K	-73.00K	-49.77M	-650.00K	-10.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-19.22M	-17.43M	-14.52M	-961.00K	-27.59M

MediaAlpha Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.53, above the 50-day MA of 10.53, and below the 200-day MA of 11.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAX.

MediaAlpha Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVER	75 Outperform	$930.67M	25.01	32.17%	―	113.43%	―
OPRA	73 Outperform	$1.58B	23.92	9.18%	4.57%	26.71%	-23.67%
Sector *	66 Neutral	¥379.06B	14.95	2.24%	2.39%	5.43%	-14.83%
MAX	60 Neutral	$711.13M	36.42	-115.07%	―	148.62%	―
THRY	59 Neutral	$514.36M	―	-51.21%	―	-14.71%	66.24%
TEAD	55 Neutral	$293.27M	―	-14.61%	―	4.15%	-394.93%
NXDR	54 Neutral	$719.27M	―	-18.77%	―	12.01%	35.71%

MediaAlpha Corporate Events

MediaAlpha Promotes Amy Yeh to Chief Technology Officer

On June 30, 2025, MediaAlpha announced the promotion of Amy Yeh to Chief Technology Officer, succeeding Eugene Nonko, who transitioned to the role of Chief Architect. This leadership change is part of a strategic move to enhance the company’s technology strategy and execution, with Amy Yeh expected to continue driving product innovation and operational scale within MediaAlpha’s insurance marketplace.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.

MediaAlpha Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 14, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. successfully elected two Class II directors, Bradley Hunt and Steven Yi, to serve until 2028. Additionally, the stockholders approved the executive compensation for 2024 and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.