MediaAlpha (MAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $818.05M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 626.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 116.58%
• EPS Growth: 62.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 144
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 56,370,304
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 581,367
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 626,005
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 53.54
• 1Y Price Target: $16.00
• Price Target Upside: 32.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(3.82% Upside)

MediaAlpha's overall stock score is driven by financial challenges, including negative profitability and high leverage, which weigh heavily on the score. However, positive technical indicators and strategic corporate actions, such as share repurchases and resolving regulatory issues, provide some support. The mixed earnings call results and valuation concerns further moderate the score.

Positive Factors

Strong P&C Vertical Growth

The significant growth in the P&C vertical indicates robust demand and effective market positioning, which can drive long-term revenue expansion and strengthen MediaAlpha's competitive edge in the insurance sector.

Share Repurchase

The share repurchase reflects management's confidence in the company's growth prospects and commitment to enhancing shareholder value, indicating a positive long-term outlook.

Financial Flexibility

Extending debt maturity provides MediaAlpha with increased financial flexibility, allowing the company to focus on growth initiatives without immediate refinancing pressures, supporting long-term stability.

Negative Factors

Decline in Health Vertical

The decline in the health vertical poses a challenge to MediaAlpha's revenue diversification and growth, potentially impacting future profitability if not addressed.

High Financial Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and limits operational flexibility, necessitating careful management to ensure long-term financial health and stability.

Challenges in Under-65 Business

The sharp decline in the under-65 business indicates structural challenges that could hinder growth and profitability, requiring strategic adjustments to regain momentum.

MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MediaAlpha (MAX) is a technology company specializing in the digital advertising space, primarily focused on the insurance sector. The company operates a programmatic platform that connects advertisers, specifically insurance providers, with publishers and consumers. By leveraging data-driven insights, MediaAlpha provides tools for real-time bidding and performance tracking, enabling insurance companies to optimize their marketing strategies and improve customer acquisition.

How the Company Makes Money

MediaAlpha generates revenue primarily through a performance-based model, where it charges insurance companies for leads generated from its platform. The company earns a fee for each qualified lead that is delivered to its clients, which creates a direct link between advertising spend and measurable outcomes. Additionally, MediaAlpha may earn revenue from transactional fees associated with the buying and selling of ad space on its platform. Key partnerships with leading insurance carriers and a growing network of publishers enhance its revenue potential by increasing the volume of transactions and leads processed through the platform.

MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MediaAlpha demonstrates a mixed financial profile. Revenue growth is on an upward trend, but profitability margins are thin, and the company faces high leverage risks. Cash flow performance is a strength, showing efficient cash generation, but balance sheet constraints could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Income Statement

The company shows a mixed income performance with a TTM gross profit margin of 15.95% and net profit margin of 1.58%. Revenue growth has been volatile with recent TTM growth of 15.90%, suggesting improving sales. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low at 4.09% and 3.94% respectively, indicating potential cost structure challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.12. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 199.49%, driven by low equity levels. The equity ratio is weak at 3.30%, suggesting financial instability and reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reflects a solid position with a TTM free cash flow of $67.62 million and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.30. The free cash flow to net income ratio is notably high at 4.28, indicating efficient cash generation relative to reported profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.08B	864.70M	388.15M	459.07M	645.27M	584.81M
Gross Profit	167.03M	143.57M	66.71M	70.06M	101.52M	85.38M
EBITDA	11.85M	44.53M	-34.43M	46.60M	2.15M	20.72M
Net Income	-6.57M	16.63M	-40.42M	-72.45M	-8.47M	10.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	249.42M	262.45M	153.93M	170.08M	289.80M	213.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	85.38M	43.27M	17.27M	14.54M	50.56M	23.55M
Total Debt	158.02M	162.44M	174.30M	183.07M	186.80M	182.67M
Total Liabilities	306.38M	308.68M	248.35M	256.17M	351.37M	315.45M
Stockholders Equity	-3.77M	2.38M	-10.29M	-15.99M	-4.34M	-101.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	71.69M	45.62M	20.16M	28.18M	27.97M	51.11M
Operating Cash Flow	72.01M	45.87M	20.23M	28.27M	28.62M	51.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-722.00K	-654.00K	-73.00K	-49.77M	-650.00K	-10.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-14.56M	-19.22M	-17.43M	-14.52M	-961.00K	-27.59M

MediaAlpha Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 12.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.40, above the 50-day MA of 11.15, and above the 200-day MA of 10.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MAX.

MediaAlpha Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPRA	75 Outperform	$1.68B	23.41	8.43%	4.14%	29.62%	-19.65%
EVER	74 Outperform	$863.53M	19.05	27.34%	―	92.91%	―
MAX	56 Neutral	$818.05M	35.76	-115.07%	―	116.58%	62.29%
NXDR	54 Neutral	$824.86M	-12.65	-14.98%	―	9.65%	56.50%
THRY	53 Neutral	$536.46M	-5.16	-37.69%	―	-13.60%	69.70%
TEAD	49 Neutral	$160.50M	-1.99	-11.77%	―	19.67%	-1183.48%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%

MediaAlpha Corporate Events

MediaAlpha Completes $32.9 Million Share Repurchase

On September 3, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. entered into an agreement to repurchase 3,234,894 shares of its Class A common stock from Insignia Capital Group for approximately $32.9 million, a transaction that closed on September 4, 2025. This strategic move, approved by a special committee of independent directors, reflects MediaAlpha’s confidence in its growth prospects and commitment to shareholder value, while Insignia’s exit aligns with its private equity fund lifecycle.

MediaAlpha Settles FTC Claims with $45 Million Agreement

On August 6, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) regarding claims of unfair or deceptive practices. The FTC approved a Consent Order requiring MediaAlpha to pay $45 million in monetary relief and implement various compliance measures related to its advertising and marketing practices. The settlement aims to address issues concerning the company’s handling of consumer information and adherence to telemarketing rules.

MediaAlpha Amends Credit Agreement for Financial Flexibility

On August 4, 2025, MediaAlpha subsidiaries QuoteLab, LLC and QL Holdings LLC amended their credit agreement, extending the maturity dates for certain loans and commitments. This amendment affects $138.1 million in term loans and $45.6 million in revolving commitments, providing financial flexibility. Additionally, MediaAlpha announced strong financial results for Q2 2025, with a 41% revenue increase and a 71% growth in transaction value in the property & casualty vertical. Despite a net loss, the company resolved an FTC inquiry and anticipates continued growth in 2025.

MediaAlpha Promotes Amy Yeh to Chief Technology Officer

On June 30, 2025, MediaAlpha announced the promotion of Amy Yeh to Chief Technology Officer, succeeding Eugene Nonko, who transitioned to the role of Chief Architect. This leadership change is part of a strategic move to enhance the company’s technology strategy and execution, with Amy Yeh expected to continue driving product innovation and operational scale within MediaAlpha’s insurance marketplace.