MediaAlpha (MAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $747.56M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 451.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 148.62%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 144
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 90
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 55,895,645
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 332,758
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 451,536
• PEG Ratio: -5.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 69.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $16.50
• Price Target Upside: 48.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(7.91%Upside)

MediaAlpha's stock is supported by strong technical momentum and an optimistic outlook from the recent earnings call. Financial performance shows strengths in cash flow, but high leverage and thin profit margins present risks. The valuation is high, which may limit further upside, but strategic changes and growth in key verticals could support future performance.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

MediaAlpha reported strong Q1 results, with Transaction Value, revenue, and adj. EBITDA all coming in solidly ahead of expectations.

Market Growth

Structural shifts within advertising such as growth of direct distribution and mix shift toward digital channels can drive sustainable double-digit growth.

Regulatory Resolution

MAX will be able to settle at an amount that does not require an equity capital raise, which if correct would act as a positive catalyst for the stock.

Negative Factors

Cost Implications

Management acknowledged that tariffs could impact carrier spend in the back half of the year, it expects any impact to be relatively moderate.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Uncertainty from the ongoing FTC investigation regarding the company’s under-65 health business will keep the stock under pressure in the near term.

MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE: MAX) operates as a leading marketing technology company that focuses on the development of a transparent and efficient platform for the buying and selling of insurance and other vertical-specific advertising. The company serves sectors like property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance, providing a unique marketplace where advertisers can acquire high-intent consumers efficiently.

How the Company Makes Money

MediaAlpha generates revenue primarily through its exchange platform, which facilitates the buying and selling of consumer leads and clicks across various insurance and other verticals. The company earns money by charging a transaction fee on each exchange conducted on its platform. It partners with insurance carriers, agents, and brokers, as well as third-party advertisers and publishers, to ensure a broad network of participants. This business model relies on the high volume of transactions and the value of the data-driven leads it provides, enhancing advertisers' ability to target and acquire potential customers effectively.

MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MediaAlpha demonstrates a mixed financial profile. Revenue growth is on an upward trend, but profitability margins are thin, and the company faces high leverage risks. Cash flow performance is a strength, showing efficient cash generation, but balance sheet constraints could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Income Statement

The company shows a mixed income performance with a TTM gross profit margin of 15.95% and net profit margin of 1.58%. Revenue growth has been volatile with recent TTM growth of 15.90%, suggesting improving sales. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low at 4.09% and 3.94% respectively, indicating potential cost structure challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.12. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 199.49%, driven by low equity levels. The equity ratio is weak at 3.30%, suggesting financial instability and reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reflects a solid position with a TTM free cash flow of $67.62 million and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.30. The free cash flow to net income ratio is notably high at 4.28, indicating efficient cash generation relative to reported profits.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.00B	864.70M	388.15M	459.07M	645.27M	584.81M
	Gross Profit
159.92M	143.57M	66.71M	70.06M	101.52M	85.38M
	EBIT
41.03M	42.73M	-39.92M	39.70M	-1.69M	19.54M
	EBITDA
39.50M	44.53M	-34.43M	46.60M	2.15M	20.72M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
15.79M	16.63M	-40.42M	-72.45M	-8.47M	10.56M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
14.47M	43.27M	17.27M	14.54M	50.56M	23.55M
	Total Assets
153.02M	262.45M	153.93M	170.08M	289.80M	213.93M
	Total Debt
172.10M	162.44M	174.30M	183.07M	186.80M	182.67M
	Net Debt
157.63M	119.18M	157.03M	168.53M	136.24M	159.11M
	Total Liabilities
242.43M	308.68M	248.35M	256.17M	351.37M	315.45M
	Stockholders Equity
-19.07M	2.38M	-10.29M	-15.99M	-4.34M	-101.52M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
67.62M	45.62M	20.16M	28.18M	27.97M	51.11M
	Operating Cash Flow
67.89M	45.87M	20.23M	28.27M	28.62M	51.41M
	Investing Cash Flow
-677.00K	-654.00K	-73.00K	-49.77M	-650.00K	-10.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
-18.13M	-19.22M	-17.43M	-14.52M	-961.00K	-27.59M

MediaAlpha Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.47, above the 50-day MA of 9.41, and below the 200-day MA of 12.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAX.

MediaAlpha Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPRA	80 Outperform	$1.71B	25.91	9.18%	4.08%	26.71%	-23.67%
EVER	74 Outperform	$935.37M	25.45	32.17%	―	113.43%	―
MAX	67 Neutral	$747.56M	38.42	-115.07%	―	148.62%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$14.75B	5.86	-3.99%	6.11%	2.67%	-30.24%
THRY	54 Neutral	$574.72M	―	-51.21%	―	-14.71%	66.24%
TEAD	53 Neutral	$254.61M	―	-14.61%	―	4.15%	-394.93%
KIND	47 Neutral	$608.32M	―	-18.77%	―	12.01%	35.71%

MediaAlpha Corporate Events

MediaAlpha Elects Directors and Approves Executive Compensation

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 14, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. successfully elected two Class II directors, Bradley Hunt and Steven Yi, to serve until 2028. Additionally, the stockholders approved the executive compensation for 2024 and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.

MediaAlpha Appoints Bradley Hunt to Board of Directors

On March 31, 2025, MediaAlpha announced the appointment of Bradley Hunt to its Board of Directors, succeeding Jennifer Moyer, who decided not to stand for re-election. Hunt, a seasoned executive with extensive experience in the health insurance sector, is expected to enhance MediaAlpha’s market position and shareholder value. His appointment follows the company’s transition from being a controlled company in May 2024. Moyer’s departure marks the end of her significant contributions since MediaAlpha’s IPO, for which the board expressed gratitude.