Horace Mann Educators Corp. (HMN)
NYSE:HMN
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Horace Mann Educators
(NYSE:HMN)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(5.05% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (revenue growth, stronger profitability, and manageable leverage) but is held back by cash flow volatility. Valuation is supportive (reasonable P/E and dividend yield), while technical signals are neutral-to-soft. Earnings call tone and guidance are constructive with clear targets, tempered by normalization risks after unusually favorable 2025 catastrophe/reserve conditions.
Positive Factors
Dedicated educator distribution & brand momentum
A focused distribution model targeting K-12 educators, rising unaided brand awareness and sharply improved digital customer acquisition create durable advantages. Strong, targeted channels and higher touch points increase cross-sell, persistency and lifetime customer value, supporting long-term revenue and margin stability.
Negative Factors
Material cash flow volatility and recent FCF decline
An ~84% drop in free cash flow in 2025 highlights inconsistent cash conversion and reduces confidence in sustained internal funding for buybacks, dividends and reinvestment. Persistent volatility in cash generation can constrain strategic flexibility and increase reliance on capital markets during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Dedicated educator distribution & brand momentum
A focused distribution model targeting K-12 educators, rising unaided brand awareness and sharply improved digital customer acquisition create durable advantages. Strong, targeted channels and higher touch points increase cross-sell, persistency and lifetime customer value, supporting long-term revenue and margin stability.
Read all positive factors
Horace Mann Educators (HMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.79B
Dividend Yield3.01%
Average Volume (3M)252.62K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8
Beta (1Y)0.26
Revenue Growth5.44%
EPS Growth58.05%
CountryUS
Employees1,750
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.21
Shares Outstanding40,449,550
10 Day Avg. Volume330,917
30 Day Avg. Volume252,622
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)1.29
Price to Sales (P/S)1.13
P/FCF Ratio19.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.00Price Target Upside7.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)4.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.29B
Horace Mann Educators Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Horace Mann Educators Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an insurance holding company in the United States. It operates in three segments: Property & Casualty, Life & Retirement, and Supplemental & Group Benefits. The company...
How the Company Makes Money
Horace Mann generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance policies, which include property and casualty insurance, life insurance, and annuities. The company earns premiums from policyholders, which constitute a key revenue stream. Add...
Horace Mann Educators Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple material operational and financial achievements — record core earnings, strong top-line growth, meaningful improvements in P&C profitability, record supplemental and group sales, improved marketing and distribution metrics, and disciplined capital deployment. Management was transparent that 2025 results were aided by unusually low catastrophe losses and favorable prior-year reserve development and provided a normalized EPS baseline (~$3.95) and conservative 2026 guidance ($4.20–$4.50). Known headwinds include an underperforming commercial mortgage loan fund, normalization of catastrophe and utilization trends, and timing of expense-savings realization. Overall the positives (record earnings, diversified growth, distribution and marketing gains, expense initiatives, and solid balance-sheet/capital actions) materially outweigh the disclosed challenges, while management provided clear plans and targets to address risks.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Results and Strong Profitability
Core earnings of $196 million, or $4.71 per share, a 39% increase versus prior year; trailing 12-month core return on equity rose to 12.4% — the highest in company history.
Negative Updates
Results Benefited from Unusually Low Catastrophe Activity and Reserve Tailwinds
2025 experienced unusually light catastrophe activity: pretax catastrophe losses were $62 million (more than one standard deviation below historical averages), contributing approximately $28 million (about $0.55 per share) above original assumptions. Favorable prior-year reserve development also boosted reported results. On a normalized basis (excluding these items and other adjustments), core EPS is approximately $3.95 — materially below the reported $4.71.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Results and Strong Profitability
Core earnings of $196 million, or $4.71 per share, a 39% increase versus prior year; trailing 12-month core return on equity rose to 12.4% — the highest in company history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 core EPS of $4.20–$4.50 against a normalized 2025 baseline of about $3.95 (2025 reported core EPS was $4.71 or $196M), implying roughly 10% y/y growth and tracking to the 3‑year targets of 10% CAGR in core EPS and a sustainable 12–13% ROE; they expect total net investment income of $485–$495M (managed portfolio $385–$395M), assume commercial mortgage loan fund returns of 6.5% and limited partnership returns of 8%, and use a ~ $90M catastrophe loss assumption for 2026 (2025 had $62M pretax cat losses that benefited core EPS by ~ $28M or ~$0.55/share and was excluded from the normalized baseline). Management reiterated a targeted 100–150 bps expense‑ratio improvement over three years (roughly +25 bps in 2026, 25–50 bps in 2027, 50–75 bps in 2028) supported by >$10M of annualized savings, noted core fixed‑income new‑money yield of 5.51% in 2025, reported ~80% free‑cash‑flow conversion in 2025 (targeting north of 75% going forward), and remains active on buybacks ( $21M repurchased in 2025, ~$6M in Jan‑2026 for ~140k shares, with ~ $49M remaining authorization).Horace Mann Educators Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.70B | 1.55B | 1.43B | 1.34B | 1.25B |
| Gross Profit | 1.70B | 478.40M | 356.80M | 332.50M | 409.00M |
| EBITDA | 0.00 | 189.60M | 109.20M | 63.50M | 242.40M |
| Net Income | 162.10M | 102.80M | 45.00M | 19.80M | 170.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.27B | 14.49B | 14.05B | 13.31B | 14.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.74B | 513.30M | 5.49B | 5.41B | 6.72B |
| Total Debt | 593.40M | 547.00M | 546.00M | 498.00M | 502.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 13.78B | 13.20B | 12.87B | 12.21B | 12.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.48B | 1.29B | 1.18B | 1.10B | 1.81B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 98.00M | 452.10M | 302.10M | 171.50M | 204.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 98.00M | 452.10M | 302.10M | 171.50M | 204.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -75.90M | -135.80M | -107.40M | -214.60M | -302.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.70M | -307.90M | -207.80M | -47.80M | 208.50M |
Horace Mann Educators Technical Analysis
Positive
44.74
Price Trends
42.90
Positive
43.72
Positive
43.49
Positive
Market Momentum
0.46
Negative
59.46
Neutral
83.20
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.86, above the 50-day MA of 42.90, and above the 200-day MA of 43.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HMN.
Horace Mann Educators Risk Analysis
Horace Mann Educators disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Horace Mann Educators reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Horace Mann Educators Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.94B | 5.59 | 38.04% | 0.82% | 8.71% | 17.26% | |
77 Outperform | $2.03B | 12.16 | 18.27% | ― | 22.51% | 2.19% | |
76 Outperform | $1.09B | 11.55 | 11.29% | 4.59% | 13.35% | 16.56% | |
69 Neutral | $1.97B | 14.05 | 7.77% | 2.88% | 16.22% | 69.80% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.79B | 11.84 | 11.52% | 3.01% | 5.44% | 58.05% | |
58 Neutral | $684.13M | 27.78 | 10.96% | ― | 38.50% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
HMN
Horace Mann Educators
44.74
5.50
14.01%
SAFT
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75.26
1.60
2.18%
STC
Stewart Information Services
64.85
0.29
0.46%
HCI
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152.88
5.61
3.81%
ROOT
Root
45.58
-79.71
-63.62%
SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
46.06
-7.87
-14.59%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.