HCI Group (HCI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.02B
• Dividend Yield: 0.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 141.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: 8.71%
• EPS Growth: 17.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 552
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 4.90
• Shares Outstanding: 12,960,037
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 189,508
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 141,709
• PEG Ratio: 0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.58
• 1Y Price Target: $221.25
• Price Target Upside: 42.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $177.00 ▲(13.83% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (high profitability, low leverage, strong ROE) and a very constructive earnings-call outlook with strong underwriting results and book-value catalysts. Technicals support the uptrend, though momentum appears somewhat stretched, while valuation is helped by a modest P/E but tempered by a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Low Leverage & Strong ROE

Extremely low leverage combined with very high ROE gives HCI durable financial flexibility. Minimal debt reduces interest and refinancing risk during catastrophe cycles, supports reinsurance purchases, capital returns, and organic growth while preserving solvency metrics over multiple quarters.

High Profitability & Revenue Growth

Sustained high net and gross margins alongside recurring revenue growth signal persistent underwriting strength and pricing power. These fundamentals provide a durable earnings cushion to fund reserves, absorb claim volatility, and reinvest in distribution and product development over the medium term.

Capital Raised via Exzeo IPO and Liquidity Actions

The Exzeo IPO materially strengthened HCI's capital base and book value, creating a lasting capital cushion. Combined with an increased credit facility and real estate cashflows, this enhances capacity for underwriting growth, strategic acquisitions, and reinsurance buying power over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Negative EBIT Margin

A negative TTM EBIT margin indicates operating earnings weakness despite strong net income, suggesting reliance on non-operating gains or favorable items. This raises concerns about sustainable core operating performance and the company's ability to consistently generate underlying earnings from insurance operations.

Decline in Free Cash Flow Growth

A notable drop in free cash flow growth signals weakening cash conversion versus reported earnings. Over multiple quarters this can constrain reinsurance buying, reserve strengthening, capital deployment, and shareholder returns, reducing financial flexibility during adverse underwriting or catastrophe periods.

Concentrated Florida Homeowners Exposure

Heavy focus on Florida homeowners insurance and the recent Citizens policy assumption materially increases catastrophe and regulatory exposure. This concentration raises persistent reserve volatility, reinsurance cost sensitivity, and capital strain in active hurricane seasons, affecting multi-quarter stability.

HCI Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HCI Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate, and information technology businesses in Florida. It provides residential insurance products, such as homeowners, fire, flood, and wind-only insurance to homeowners, condominium owners, and tenants for properties, as well as offers reinsurance programs. The company also owns and operates waterfront properties and retail shopping centers, and an office building, as well as commercial properties for investment purposes. In addition, it designs and develops web-based applications and products for mobile devices, including SAMS, an online policy administration platform; Harmony, a policy administration platform; ClaimColony, an end-to-end claims management platform; and AtlasViewer, a mapping and data visualization platform. The company was formerly known as Homeowners Choice, Inc. and changed its name to HCI Group, Inc. in May 2013. HCI Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

HCI Group generates revenue primarily through its insurance premiums collected from policyholders. The core revenue stream comes from homeowners insurance, where the company underwrites policies and charges premiums based on risk assessments and coverage limits. Additionally, HCI earns income from investment activities, as it invests the premiums received in various financial instruments, including bonds and equities, which yield returns. The company also engages in reinsurance activities, which provide another layer of revenue by transferring some of its risks to other insurers for a fee. Partnerships with mortgage lenders and other financial institutions further enhance revenue opportunities through mortgage-related services. Overall, HCI's earnings are influenced by its underwriting performance, investment income, and strategic partnerships.

HCI Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability (26.34% net margin) and revenue growth (5.3% TTM) are supported by a very low debt-to-equity ratio (0.039) and strong ROE (33.64%). Offsetting factors include a negative EBIT margin in the TTM and a 15.35% decline in free cash flow growth, indicating operational and cash-flow pressure despite reported earnings strength.

Income Statement

HCI Group has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 5.3% increase in TTM, supported by a solid gross profit margin of 46.97%. The net profit margin is impressive at 26.34%, indicating effective cost management and profitability. However, the negative EBIT margin in the TTM suggests operational challenges that need addressing.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.039, indicating minimal leverage and financial stability. The return on equity is strong at 33.64%, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 35.02% suggests a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

HCI Group's cash flow is healthy, with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 25.49, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, the decline in free cash flow growth by 15.35% in the TTM is a concern, suggesting potential cash flow management issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	816.85M	749.45M	550.01M	491.99M	402.55M	275.73M
Gross Profit	399.03M	275.34M	204.61M	15.55M	81.29M	61.84M
EBITDA	313.69M	191.01M	136.87M	-52.77M	23.08M	57.25M
Net Income	203.94M	109.95M	79.03M	-58.51M	1.86M	27.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.35B	2.23B	1.81B	1.80B	1.18B	941.31M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.18B	1.05B	770.50M	500.22M	671.53M	503.06M
Total Debt	33.08M	186.44M	209.90M	212.41M	62.71M	184.28M
Total Liabilities	1.49B	1.76B	1.39B	1.55B	762.40M	740.18M
Stockholders Equity	821.78M	453.33M	324.84M	162.60M	323.37M	201.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	404.78M	327.76M	224.16M	-10.15M	93.19M	70.87M
Operating Cash Flow	408.37M	331.82M	230.66M	-12.00K	96.50M	77.31M
Investing Cash Flow	67.22M	-260.11M	4.27M	-434.54M	36.85M	143.22M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.33M	-75.17M	67.12M	41.07M	64.30M	-16.70M

HCI Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 155.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 155.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 171.21, below the 50-day MA of 177.07, and below the 200-day MA of 167.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCI.

HCI Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SKWD	81 Outperform	$1.82B	13.36	16.06%	―	22.51%	2.19%
HCI	78 Outperform	$2.02B	9.93	31.94%	0.82%	8.71%	17.26%
HMN	78 Outperform	$1.76B	10.94	12.03%	3.01%	5.44%	58.05%
STC	74 Outperform	$2.02B	18.78	7.08%	2.88%	16.22%	69.80%
ROOT	70 Neutral	$1.02B	20.19	17.02%	―	38.50%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
PRA	55 Neutral	$1.24B	37.04	2.66%	―	-3.35%	-21.82%

HCI Group Corporate Events

HCI Group CEO Extends Leadership Role and Equity Commitment

On December 9, 2025, Exzeo Group, Inc., a majority-owned subsidiary of HCI Group, executed an executive employment agreement, effective January 1, 2026, to retain Paresh Patel as chief executive officer, aligning his leadership across both Exzeo and HCI Group. The agreement sets Patel’s annual base salary at $950,000 with eligibility for discretionary bonuses, provides 12 months of base-salary severance in certain termination, good reason, or change-of-control scenarios, and includes standard confidentiality, non-solicitation and a two-year U.S. non-compete clause, underscoring the company’s intention to secure long-term executive stability. On December 18, 2025, Patel also adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan to purchase up to 100,000 Exzeo shares or $2 million of stock by December 18, 2026, contingent on price thresholds, signaling a structured commitment to increase his equity stake and potentially aligning his incentives more closely with other shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCI) stock is a Hold with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCI Group stock, see the HCI Stock Forecast page.