HCI Group (HCI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.26B
• Dividend Yield: 0.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 142.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: 8.71%
• EPS Growth: 17.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 552
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 7.25
• Shares Outstanding: 12,991,955
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 124,795
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 142,557
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.92
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.46
• 1Y Price Target: $235.00
• Price Target Upside: 35.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 16.58
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $975.23M

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $195.00 ▲(12.22% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by strengthened financial performance (rapid revenue growth, large profitability rebound, robust cash generation, and sharply reduced leverage). Valuation also supports the rating with a low P/E (~10). Offsetting factors are a mixed technical picture (negative MACD and price below key medium-term averages) and some durability/transparency risk due to historical volatility and limited 2025 operating-line detail.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Profitability Scaling

HCI has materially grown top-line scale while converting to high reported profitability in 2025. Sustained revenue expansion and a large net margin provide durable earnings power, supporting reinvestment, underwriting capacity and shareholder returns over the medium term.

De-risked Balance Sheet

Extremely low leverage and a much larger equity base materially improve financial flexibility. This capital structure strengthens the company’s ability to absorb catastrophe losses, pursue accretive acquisitions, and support dividend/buyback programs without stressing solvency metrics.

Strong Cash Generation

Robust operating and free cash flow that tracks net income indicates high cash conversion in profitable years. This durable cash generation underpins organic growth, M&A, debt reduction and capital returns, and provides a buffer through insurance-cycle variability.

Negative Factors

Limited Operating Disclosure

Key 2025 operating-line items are reported as zero, reducing visibility into underlying underwriting and core operating margin drivers. That opacity makes it harder to assess sustainability of the unusually high net margin and to separate investment or one-off impacts from recurring operating performance.

Prior-cycle Volatility

The company exhibited meaningful earnings and cash-flow volatility in the recent cycle, including 2022 losses and weak cash. Such cyclicality in P&C underwriting implies that favorable recent results could reverse in adverse loss years, pressuring capital and returns.

Geographic Concentration / Weather Risk

Heavy concentration in Florida homeowners insurance exposes HCI to hurricane and weather-driven loss shocks. Even with a low current loss ratio driven by favorable weather, geographic concentration creates persistent tail-risk that can quickly erode underwriting margins and capital in severe seasons.

HCI Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HCI Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate, and information technology businesses in Florida. It provides residential insurance products, such as homeowners, fire, flood, and wind-only insurance to homeowners, condominium owners, and tenants for properties, as well as offers reinsurance programs. The company also owns and operates waterfront properties and retail shopping centers, and an office building, as well as commercial properties for investment purposes. In addition, it designs and develops web-based applications and products for mobile devices, including SAMS, an online policy administration platform; Harmony, a policy administration platform; ClaimColony, an end-to-end claims management platform; and AtlasViewer, a mapping and data visualization platform. The company was formerly known as Homeowners Choice, Inc. and changed its name to HCI Group, Inc. in May 2013. HCI Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

HCI Group generates revenue primarily through its insurance premiums collected from policyholders. The core revenue stream comes from homeowners insurance, where the company underwrites policies and charges premiums based on risk assessments and coverage limits. Additionally, HCI earns income from investment activities, as it invests the premiums received in various financial instruments, including bonds and equities, which yield returns. The company also engages in reinsurance activities, which provide another layer of revenue by transferring some of its risks to other insurers for a fee. Partnerships with mortgage lenders and other financial institutions further enhance revenue opportunities through mortgage-related services. Overall, HCI's earnings are influenced by its underwriting performance, investment income, and strategic partnerships.

HCI Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year improvement: revenue scaled sharply to $900.9M (2025) and profitability rebounded materially with net income reaching $320.4M (~35.6% margin). Balance sheet de-risked significantly (debt-to-equity ~0.03x in 2025) with strong ROE in 2023–2025, and operating/free cash flow rose to $444.4M (2025). Key offsets are prior-cycle volatility (notably 2022 weakness) and limited 2025 operating-line detail (gross profit/EBIT/EBITDA reported as zero), reducing transparency into earnings durability.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over time, accelerating from $275.7M (2020) to $900.9M (2025), with strong growth in 2023–2025 and a particularly sharp step-up in 2024–2025. Profitability also improved materially: after a loss in 2022, net income rebounded to $79.0M (2023), $110.0M (2024), and $320.4M (2025), with net margin expanding to ~35.6% in 2025. Key weakness: several 2025 operating profit fields are reported as zero (gross profit/EBIT/EBITDA), limiting visibility into underlying underwriting/operating margin quality and making the 2025 margin picture harder to validate.

Balance Sheet

Leverage trends improved substantially: debt-to-equity declined from elevated levels in 2022 (~1.31x) to ~0.65x (2023), ~0.41x (2024), and a very conservative ~0.03x (2025), reflecting a much stronger capital position. Equity increased sharply to ~$1.04B in 2025 (from ~$453M in 2024), supporting a larger asset base ($2.53B in 2025). Return on equity is strong in 2023–2025 (~24% to ~31%), but the historical volatility (notably negative ROE in 2022) highlights that results can swing meaningfully in weaker years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and improving: operating cash flow rose from $230.7M (2023) to $331.8M (2024) and $444.4M (2025), and free cash flow closely tracks operating cash flow (and reached $444.4M in 2025). Cash conversion appears solid in profitable years, with free cash flow roughly in line with net income in 2023–2025 (~97% to 100%). Main risk: cash flow was severely weak in 2022 (near-zero operating cash flow and negative free cash flow), underscoring potential volatility through the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	900.95M	749.45M	550.01M	491.99M	402.55M
Gross Profit	659.12M	275.34M	204.61M	15.55M	81.29M
EBITDA	449.70M	191.01M	136.87M	-52.77M	23.08M
Net Income	299.00M	109.95M	79.03M	-58.51M	1.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.53B	2.23B	1.81B	1.80B	1.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.81B	1.05B	770.50M	500.22M	671.53M
Total Debt	31.88M	186.44M	209.90M	212.41M	62.71M
Total Liabilities	1.41B	1.76B	1.39B	1.55B	762.40M
Stockholders Equity	1.04B	453.33M	324.84M	162.60M	323.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	444.45M	327.76M	224.16M	-10.15M	93.19M
Operating Cash Flow	444.45M	331.82M	230.66M	-12.00K	96.50M
Investing Cash Flow	240.12M	-260.11M	4.27M	-434.54M	36.85M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.94M	-75.17M	67.12M	41.07M	64.30M

HCI Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 173.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 173.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 160.95, above the 50-day MA of 170.29, and above the 200-day MA of 168.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCI.

HCI Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HCI	79 Outperform	$2.26B	7.76	40.02%	0.82%	8.71%	17.26%
SKWD	77 Outperform	$1.97B	11.95	18.85%	―	22.51%	2.19%
STC	69 Neutral	$2.13B	17.55	7.08%	2.88%	16.22%	69.80%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HMN	67 Neutral	$1.80B	11.17	12.03%	3.01%	5.44%	58.05%
ROOT	58 Neutral	$768.47M	22.68	11.32%	―	38.50%	―
PRA	56 Neutral	$1.26B	24.96	2.66%	―	-3.35%	-21.82%

HCI Group Corporate Events

HCI Group CEO Extends Leadership Role and Equity Commitment

On December 9, 2025, Exzeo Group, Inc., a majority-owned subsidiary of HCI Group, executed an executive employment agreement, effective January 1, 2026, to retain Paresh Patel as chief executive officer, aligning his leadership across both Exzeo and HCI Group. The agreement sets Patel’s annual base salary at $950,000 with eligibility for discretionary bonuses, provides 12 months of base-salary severance in certain termination, good reason, or change-of-control scenarios, and includes standard confidentiality, non-solicitation and a two-year U.S. non-compete clause, underscoring the company’s intention to secure long-term executive stability. On December 18, 2025, Patel also adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan to purchase up to 100,000 Exzeo shares or $2 million of stock by December 18, 2026, contingent on price thresholds, signaling a structured commitment to increase his equity stake and potentially aligning his incentives more closely with other shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCI) stock is a Hold with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCI Group stock, see the HCI Stock Forecast page.