HCI Group Inc (HCI)
NYSE:HCI
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HCI Group
(NYSE:HCI)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$176.00
▲(11.64% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, cash generation, and sharply improved leverage) and supportive earnings-call guidance/capital actions, reinforced by inexpensive valuation. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and acknowledged exposure to pricing pressure and catastrophe risk.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability & cash generation
Sustained high net margins and very strong operating cash flow provide durable internal funding for underwriting volatility, reinsurance purchasing, and capital returns. Consistent cash generation improves solvency cushions and funds buybacks or opportunistic M&A without stressing liquidity over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Catastrophe / weather exposure
Concentration in homeowners P&C leaves earnings and capital sensitive to large weather events. A major hurricane can produce outsized losses and elevated combined ratios in a single year, creating persistent volatility in underwriting results and pressuring reinsurance needs and pricing over multiple periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability & cash generation
Sustained high net margins and very strong operating cash flow provide durable internal funding for underwriting volatility, reinsurance purchasing, and capital returns. Consistent cash generation improves solvency cushions and funds buybacks or opportunistic M&A without stressing liquidity over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
HCI Group (HCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.04B
Dividend Yield0.82%
Average Volume (3M)169.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.6
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth20.07%
EPS Growth129.35%
CountryUS
Employees552
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.25
Shares Outstanding12,991,955
10 Day Avg. Volume252,768
30 Day Avg. Volume169,032
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.10
Price to Sales (P/S)2.43
P/FCF Ratio4.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$235.00Price Target Upside49.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)16.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$975.23M
HCI Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HCI Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate, and information technology businesses in Florida. It provides residential insurance products, such as homeowners, fire, floo...
How the Company Makes Money
HCI primarily makes money through (1) insurance underwriting and (2) investment income on its invested assets. Underwriting revenue is generated from premiums collected on property insurance policies (notably homeowners coverage). From these premi...
HCI Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong, broad-based financial performance: robust earnings, double-digit premium growth, materially low loss and combined ratios, a strengthened balance sheet, significant liquidity and a high ROE. Strategic milestones (Exzeo IPO, Citizens policy assumptions, disciplined reinsurance positioning) and an $80 million buyback reinforce shareholder-focused capital deployment. The primary negatives are competitive rate pressure, an acknowledged softening of pricing (including a 3.5% rate reduction in one product), M&A valuation friction, exposure to potential hurricane losses, and some one-time accounting noise in Q4 expense reporting. Overall, the positives materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability (Pretax Income & EPS)
Pretax income of $144 million in Q4 and $429 million for the full year; diluted EPS of $7.25 for the quarter and $22.72 for the year, reflecting strong earnings generation.
Negative Updates
Rate Pressure and Pricing Easing
Management acknowledged a competitive environment where rate increases are largely behind them; example: Homeowners Choice reduced rates by 3.5% starting in January (Florida), indicating some easing of prior pricing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability (Pretax Income & EPS)
Pretax income of $144 million in Q4 and $429 million for the full year; diluted EPS of $7.25 for the quarter and $22.72 for the year, reflecting strong earnings generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 should build on a strong 2025 with rate increases largely behind them (expecting rate maintenance or some easing, Homeowners Choice -3.5% in FL) and early reinsurance softness likely to be beneficial to margins; they highlighted Q4 and FY metrics including pretax income of $144M (Q4) and $429M (FY), diluted EPS of $7.25 (Q4) and $22.72 (FY), gross premiums earned up 12% in Q4 and 14% for the year, gross written premiums of $333M in Q4 and net premiums earned of about $226M in Q4, a Q4 gross loss ratio of 15.6% (normalized 17.5%; FY normalized 20%), a Q4 combined ratio under 45% (normalized <60%), and a sustainable ex‑cat loss ratio framework near 20% (range ~20–25%); capital and liquidity positions were emphasized as strong—shareholder equity >$1B (tripled in 2 years), book value >$80/share (≈$140 pro forma including unrealized Exzeo/real estate gains), Exzeo stake ~ $1.2B (≈82% ownership), >$0.75B cash from operations over 2 years, consolidated cash >$1.2B, HCI-level liquidity $175M, underwriter surplus >$0.5B, gross leverage ~2.5, and a >35% after‑tax ROE over the past 3 years—plus strategic actions including assuming ~47,000 Citizens policies in Q4 (> $175M in‑force; 60,000 for the year), prefunding growth (~$45M of assumed premium, ~ $35M credited in Q4), an $80M share repurchase program to be launched imminently, and ongoing M&A optionality as pricing normalizes.HCI Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
83
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
87
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 900.95M | 749.45M | 550.01M | 491.99M | 402.55M |
| Gross Profit | 659.12M | 275.34M | 204.61M | 15.55M | 81.29M |
| EBITDA | 449.70M | 191.01M | 136.87M | -52.77M | 23.08M |
| Net Income | 299.00M | 109.95M | 79.03M | -58.51M | 1.86M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.53B | 2.23B | 1.81B | 1.80B | 1.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.81B | 1.05B | 770.50M | 500.22M | 671.53M |
| Total Debt | 67.32M | 186.44M | 209.90M | 212.41M | 62.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.41B | 1.76B | 1.39B | 1.55B | 762.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.04B | 453.33M | 324.84M | 162.60M | 323.37M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 444.45M | 327.76M | 224.16M | -10.15M | 93.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 446.74M | 331.82M | 230.66M | -12.00K | 96.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 240.12M | -260.11M | 4.27M | -434.54M | 36.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.94M | -75.17M | 67.12M | 41.07M | 64.30M |
HCI Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
157.65
Price Trends
159.45
Negative
167.42
Negative
168.80
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.36
Negative
52.46
Neutral
74.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 157.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 153.86, below the 50-day MA of 159.45, and below the 200-day MA of 168.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HCI.
HCI Group Risk Analysis
HCI Group disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. HCI Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
HCI Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.04B | 5.59 | 38.04% | 0.82% | 20.07% | 129.35% | |
77 Outperform | $2.05B | 12.16 | 18.27% | ― | 23.66% | 40.04% | |
72 Outperform | $2.19B | 27.96 | 0.03% | 2.88% | 21.30% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.84B | 11.84 | 11.52% | 3.01% | 6.66% | 57.64% | |
58 Neutral | $912.26M | 27.78 | 10.96% | ― | 28.95% | 32.09% | |
56 Neutral | $1.27B | 24.36 | 3.94% | ― | -4.55% | -4.02% |
* Financial Sector Average
HCI
HCI Group
156.84
14.80
10.42%
HMN
Horace Mann Educators
45.54
5.20
12.88%
PRA
ProAssurance
24.69
1.57
6.79%
STC
Stewart Information Services
71.67
8.66
13.74%
ROOT
Root
57.68
-94.16
-62.01%
SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
45.94
-7.05
-13.30%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.