HCI Group Inc (HCI)
NYSE:HCI
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HCI Group
(NYSE:HCI)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$173.00
▲(9.74% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/10/26
Overall score reflects very strong financial performance and supportive earnings-call fundamentals (profitability, capital strength, and active buybacks), reinforced by an attractive low P/E valuation. These positives are tempered by weak technical trend signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and industry-specific risks highlighted on the call (pricing softness, reinsurance terms, and catastrophe exposure).
Positive Factors
Underwriting Profitability
Consistently low loss and combined ratios reflect durable underwriting discipline and risk selection. Delivering ~57% vs a 60%±5% target suggests margin buffer, enabling sustained underwriting profits that compound capital, fund reserves, and support long-term shareholder returns even through cycles.
Negative Factors
Catastrophe / Weather Exposure
Concentration in homeowners/property insurance leaves results materially sensitive to hurricane frequency and severity. Large catastrophe events can quickly erode underwriting gains, capital, and free cash flow, creating persistent earnings volatility and necessitating conservative capital buffers.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Underwriting Profitability
Consistently low loss and combined ratios reflect durable underwriting discipline and risk selection. Delivering ~57% vs a 60%±5% target suggests margin buffer, enabling sustained underwriting profits that compound capital, fund reserves, and support long-term shareholder returns even through cycles.
Read all positive factors
HCI Group (HCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.00B
Dividend Yield0.82%
Average Volume (3M)169.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.0
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth22.11%
EPS Growth90.84%
CountryUS
Employees552
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)25.71
Shares Outstanding12,764,808
10 Day Avg. Volume252,768
30 Day Avg. Volume169,032
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.10
Price to Sales (P/S)2.43
P/FCF Ratio4.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$235.00Price Target Upside49.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)17.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$993.86M
HCI Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HCI Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate, and information technology businesses in Florida. It provides residential insurance products, such as homeowners, fire, floo...
How the Company Makes Money
HCI primarily makes money through (1) insurance underwriting and (2) investment income on its invested assets. Underwriting revenue is generated from premiums collected on property insurance policies (notably homeowners coverage). From these premi...
HCI Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operating and financial results: double-digit revenue growth, 15% pretax income growth, very low loss and combined ratios, substantial balance sheet strength, and active share repurchases. Management also highlighted new reinsurance capabilities and value creation from Exzeo. The primary risks discussed were a softening rate environment, uncertainty around final reinsurance placements, and weather/catastrophe exposure. Overall, the positives — robust profitability, capital strength, and clear capital deployment plans — materially outweigh the discussed risks.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and Earnings Growth
Pretax income increased 15% year-over-year to $115 million; diluted earnings per share were $5.45. Management characterized this as the best first quarter ever and noted record earnings and record cash flows.
Negative Updates
Softening Rate Environment and Premium Stability Risk
Management acknowledged the primary market (notably Florida) is softening. While they reported premiums per policy roughly flat year-over-year and expect stability, a softer rate environment could pressure future pricing and margins.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and Earnings Growth
Pretax income increased 15% year-over-year to $115 million; diluted earnings per share were $5.45. Management characterized this as the best first quarter ever and noted record earnings and record cash flows.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a target accident‑year combined ratio of 60% ±5% (HCI delivered ~57% for FY2025 and Q1 2026) and said premiums are expected to remain stable (gross premiums earned +~8% y/y; premiums in force $1.3B across four carriers; Tailrow >$120M in‑force). They highlighted strong financials and capital deployment priorities: pretax income +15% y/y to $115M, diluted EPS $5.45, total revenue +~12%, Q1 loss ratio 20%, stockholders’ equity doubled to >$1B, cash and fixed‑term securities just under $2B, book value per share ≈$85 (pro forma ≈$145 including Exzeo and real estate), debt‑to‑capital ~6%, total surplus +22% to >$0.5B, gross leverage <2.5, holding‑company liquidity ≈$200M, and a continued $80M buyback program (≈$37.5M deployed and 239k shares repurchased through April; net repurchases running ~2% of the company per quarter). They also noted reinsurance progress (adding Cayman‑domiciled Fortex Re alongside Bermuda‑domiciled Claddaugh, June 1 program in final phase) and ongoing pursuit of Exzeo‑like growth opportunities (Exzeo valuation ~$1.5B).HCI Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 927.48M | 900.95M | 749.45M | 550.01M | 491.99M | 402.55M |
| Gross Profit | 617.14M | 659.12M | 275.34M | 204.61M | 15.55M | 81.29M |
| EBITDA | 462.51M | 449.70M | 191.01M | 136.87M | -52.77M | 23.08M |
| Net Income | 302.73M | 299.00M | 109.95M | 79.03M | -58.51M | 1.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.32B | 2.53B | 2.23B | 1.81B | 1.80B | 1.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 1.24B | 1.05B | 770.50M | 500.22M | 671.53M |
| Total Debt | 67.67M | 67.88M | 186.44M | 209.90M | 212.41M | 62.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.43B | 1.41B | 1.76B | 1.39B | 1.55B | 762.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.09B | 1.04B | 453.33M | 324.84M | 162.60M | 323.37M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 430.48M | 444.45M | 327.76M | 224.16M | -10.15M | 93.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 432.19M | 446.74M | 331.82M | 230.66M | -12.00K | 96.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -150.57M | 240.12M | -260.11M | 4.27M | -434.54M | 36.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -22.26M | -8.94M | -75.17M | 67.12M | 41.07M | 64.30M |
HCI Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
157.65
Price Trends
159.45
Negative
167.42
Negative
168.80
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.36
Negative
52.46
Neutral
74.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 157.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 153.86, below the 50-day MA of 159.45, and below the 200-day MA of 168.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HCI.
HCI Group Risk Analysis
HCI Group disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. HCI Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
HCI Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $2.00B | 6.00 | 32.64% | 0.82% | 22.11% | 90.84% | |
76 Outperform | $876.30M | 4.80 | 14.75% | ― | 22.83% | 2.00% | |
76 Outperform | $1.87B | 8.88 | 17.35% | ― | 28.95% | 37.60% | |
71 Outperform | $1.82B | 10.67 | 11.48% | 3.01% | 5.46% | 44.56% | |
69 Neutral | $2.03B | 27.96 | 8.36% | 2.88% | 21.30% | 69.50% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
54 Neutral | $1.26B | 37.61 | 4.95% | ― | -4.32% | 53.30% |
* Financial Sector Average
HCI
HCI Group
156.40
-9.75
-5.87%
HMN
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44.99
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5.65%
PRA
ProAssurance
24.51
1.24
5.33%
STC
Stewart Information Services
66.79
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4.29%
ROOT
Root
55.37
-81.16
-59.44%
SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
46.01
-17.59
-27.66%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.