Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD)
NASDAQ:SKWD
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Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
(NASDAQ:SKWD)
Select Model
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$49.00
▲(13.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
Overall score reflects strong financial performance (scaling revenue, improved margins/ROE, robust cash generation and low historical leverage) and a supportive valuation (P/E ~11.95). Offsetting factors are mixed technical momentum (below the 200-day and slightly negative MACD) and earnings-call risks centered on higher post-acquisition leverage and select underwriting/investment headwinds despite reiterated guidance and strong underwriting metrics.
Positive Factors
Revenue & margin expansion
Skyward has grown revenue from $448M (2020) to $1.41B (2025) while restoring profitability (net margin ~12%, EBIT margin ~15.9%). This scale and margin recovery point to durable underwriting improvements, stronger pricing/selection and operating leverage that support sustainable earnings over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Near-term leverage increase
Leverage rising from under 11% to ~28%–29% after the Apollo deal materially increases balance-sheet sensitivity to underwriting losses, interest costs and market dislocations. Higher debt and related covenants reduce financial flexibility and raise refinancing and rating risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & margin expansion
Skyward has grown revenue from $448M (2020) to $1.41B (2025) while restoring profitability (net margin ~12%, EBIT margin ~15.9%). This scale and margin recovery point to durable underwriting improvements, stronger pricing/selection and operating leverage that support sustainable earnings over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.92B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)525.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.2
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth22.51%
EPS Growth2.19%
CountryUS
Employees580
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding44,467,083
10 Day Avg. Volume489,097
30 Day Avg. Volume525,980
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)2.05
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio5.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.67Price Target Upside45.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.71B
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, engages in underwriting commercial property and casualty insurance coverages in the United States. The company offers general liability, excess liability, professional liabilit...
How the Company Makes Money
Skyward Specialty primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income, which are the core earnings engines for a P&C insurer.
1) Underwriting (insurance operations)
- Premiums: The company sells insurance policies and ...
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial performance with multiple record metrics (notably adjusted operating income, underwriting income, robust premium growth, improving combined ratio, conservative reserving, and accretive strategic M&A). Challenges were largely manageable: some alternative asset underperformance, pockets of adverse development in commercial auto, heightened near-term leverage from the Apollo transaction, and competitive pressure in property and certain specialty lines. Overall, the positive financial results, disciplined reserving, portfolio diversification and strategic upside from Apollo and the Uber AV partnership materially outweigh the identified challenges.Positive Updates
Record Operating and Underwriting Income
Fourth quarter adjusted operating income increased 47% to $49.0M ($1.17 per diluted share) and underwriting income reached an all-time high of $41M; fourth consecutive quarter of record results for these metrics.
Negative Updates
Rising Near-Term Financial Leverage from Apollo Transaction
While debt-to-capital was under 11% at year-end, leverage is expected to increase to approximately 28%–29% in Q1 2026 due to debt related to the Apollo transaction, representing near-term balance sheet leverage risk.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Operating and Underwriting Income
Fourth quarter adjusted operating income increased 47% to $49.0M ($1.17 per diluted share) and underwriting income reached an all-time high of $41M; fourth consecutive quarter of record results for these metrics.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management confirmed that the December 3 guidance for 2026 is unchanged and reiterated several near‑term targets: an expense ratio in the sub‑30s (Q4 was 28.9%), retention consistent with guidance (64.9% year‑end) with mid‑70s retention on renewals, mid‑single‑digit pure rate gains ex‑global property, and submission growth solidly in the teens. On capital and balance‑sheet metrics they said Q4 fully diluted book value was $23.87 and, after the January 1 Apollo close, FD BV is expected to be $26.00–$26.10 (Apollo consideration included ~3.7M shares at $50), debt‑to‑capital will rise from under 11% at year‑end to roughly 28%–29% in Q1 2026, and the company will opportunistically repurchase shares. For context around the guidance they noted FY‑2025 operating performance (Q4 adjusted operating income $49M / $1.17 per diluted share; FY GWP growth 24%, Q4 GWP +13%; net written premiums +25% Y/Y), a combined ratio of 88.5% (loss ratio 59.6% including $7.5M of favorable prior‑year development), pay‑to‑incurred ~65%, and 74% of reserves in IBNR.Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.41B | 1.15B | 895.40M | 636.40M | 535.82M |
| Gross Profit | 622.11M | 327.89M | 271.65M | 168.20M | 134.35M |
| EBITDA | 227.88M | 165.59M | 124.02M | 60.29M | 58.53M |
| Net Income | 170.03M | 118.83M | 85.98M | 39.40M | 38.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.79B | 3.73B | 2.95B | 2.36B | 2.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.02B | 1.18B | 1.35B | 774.17M | 664.74M |
| Total Debt | 119.98M | 119.54M | 128.69M | 128.61M | 128.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.78B | 2.94B | 2.29B | 1.94B | 1.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.01B | 794.00M | 661.03M | 421.66M | 426.08M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 402.62M | 300.89M | 335.03M | 206.61M | 173.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 408.08M | 305.12M | 338.19M | 208.94M | 175.28M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -366.90M | -243.69M | -493.81M | -193.38M | -183.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 411.00K | -4.23M | 130.95M | 2.18M | 1.38M |
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
43.07
Price Trends
45.05
Negative
46.71
Negative
48.34
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.82
Negative
44.02
Neutral
71.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SKWD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.28, below the 50-day MA of 45.05, and below the 200-day MA of 48.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SKWD.
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Risk Analysis
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.23B | 3.54 | 75.10% | ― | ― | ― | |
78 Outperform | $2.00B | 7.31 | 38.04% | 0.82% | 8.71% | 17.26% | |
77 Outperform | $1.92B | 12.16 | 18.27% | ― | 22.51% | 2.19% | |
76 Outperform | $1.05B | 11.55 | 11.29% | 4.59% | 13.35% | 16.56% | |
69 Neutral | $1.86B | 17.66 | 7.77% | 2.88% | 16.22% | 69.80% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
58 Neutral | $672.62M | 27.78 | 10.96% | ― | 38.50% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
SKWD
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Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Skyward Specialty Completes Apollo Acquisition and Equity Issuance
Positive
Jan 6, 2026
On December 30, 2025, Skyward Specialty entered into a new unsecured senior delayed draw term loan facility totaling $300 million, split between Tranche A maturing January 1, 2028 and Tranche B maturing July 2, 2029, with pricing tied to term SOFR...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.