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GooseHead Insurance
(NASDAQ:GSHD)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$76.00
▲(29.36% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operating performance (growth and margin expansion with solid cash generation) but is held back by elevated balance-sheet risk from negative equity and rising debt. Technicals are a clear positive with the stock trading well above major moving averages, while valuation is a notable headwind due to the high P/E. Earnings-call guidance and commentary were constructive overall, with manageable near-term risks around retention/NPS, contingent commission variability, and leverage from buybacks.
Positive Factors
Recurring commission-based model & distribution mix
Goosehead's core economics derive from third‑party commission renewals and a mix of capital‑light franchise plus corporate agencies. That creates durable recurring revenue as policies renew, lets expansion scale with limited balance‑sheet investment, and diversifies producer channels over time.
Negative Factors
Weakened balance sheet / rising leverage
Negative equity and materially higher debt levels elevate refinancing and covenant risk, complicate leverage metrics, and reduce capital flexibility. This constrains the company's ability to absorb shocks, pursue opportunistic M&A, or sustain buybacks without increasing liquidity or deleveraging over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring commission-based model & distribution mix
Goosehead's core economics derive from third‑party commission renewals and a mix of capital‑light franchise plus corporate agencies. That creates durable recurring revenue as policies renew, lets expansion scale with limited balance‑sheet investment, and diversifies producer channels over time.
Read all positive factors
GooseHead Insurance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Type
Categorizes revenue sources, providing insight into which segments drive the most income and potential areas for growth or diversification.
Categorizes revenue sources, providing insight into which segments drive the most income and potential areas for growth or diversification.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGooseHead Insurance (GSHD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.20B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)576.73K
Price to Earnings (P/E)43.4
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth17.74%
EPS Growth18.77%
CountryUS
Employees1,600
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.43
Shares Outstanding23,802,805
10 Day Avg. Volume601,954
30 Day Avg. Volume576,727
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.80
Price to Book (P/B)-19.26
Price to Sales (P/S)5.04
P/FCF Ratio21.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.50Price Target Upside13.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$424.88M
GooseHead Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. functions as the parent entity for Goosehead Financial, LLC, an enterprise dedicated to delivering personal lines insurance brokerage services throughout the United States. Its operational framework is divided into two pr...
How the Company Makes Money
Goosehead primarily makes money by distributing third-party insurance policies and earning commissions and fees tied to those policies rather than underwriting insurance risk itself. Its revenue model is built on recurring commission income as pol...
GooseHead Insurance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial quarter with double-digit revenue growth, a meaningful jump in adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion, accelerating new business and enterprise contributions, tangible AI/digital efficiency gains, and active franchise/corporate expansion. Key challenges include NPS pressure from prior price shocks, contingent commission volatility, a deliberate but not yet material revenue contribution from the Digital Agent, some franchise consolidation, and modest liquidity/leverage considerations due to share repurchases. Overall, the positives — durable top-line growth, improving unit economics, meaningful efficiency gains from AI, and scalable distribution advancements — materially outweigh the near-term risks.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenues grew 23% year-over-year to $93.1 million in 1Q26; core revenues grew 15% to $79.5 million.
Negative Updates
NPS and Perceptual Headwinds
Net Promoter Score has declined since late 2024 (12-month rolling), attributed to steep price increases in key markets like Texas; management notes NPS is lagging industry sentiment despite improving retention and internal survey strength.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenues grew 23% year-over-year to $93.1 million in 1Q26; core revenues grew 15% to $79.5 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance calling for organic total revenue growth of 10–19% and organic total written premium growth of 12–20%, with contingent commissions expected to be 60–85 basis points of total written premiums; they said Q2 core revenue should look similar to Q1 after adjusting for a $4M prior‑year recovery and expect policies‑in‑force acceleration as client retention rises to at least ~86% this year (Q1 retention 85%). For context, Q1 results included $93.1M total revenue (+23%), $79.5M core revenue (+15%), $1.1B written premiums (+13%), 2.0M policies in force (+14%), adjusted EBITDA $24.4M (26% margin, +57%), new business commissions +29%, ancillary revenues $11.9M (+141%), and $22.9M cash flow from operations.GooseHead Insurance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 402.16M | 365.30M | 314.50M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M |
| Gross Profit | 253.03M | 168.94M | 141.56M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M |
| EBITDA | 115.65M | 85.91M | 64.99M | 42.42M | 17.24M | 13.97M |
| Net Income | 35.29M | 27.83M | 30.43M | 14.14M | 565.00K | 5.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 406.84M | 414.86M | 397.65M | 354.89M | 321.35M | 270.29M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.66M | 34.39M | 57.97M | 44.05M | 30.39M | 30.48M |
| Total Debt | 372.84M | 352.29M | 153.38M | 143.22M | 165.16M | 174.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 595.37M | 577.65M | 358.58M | 338.11M | 354.98M | 339.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | -112.40M | -95.50M | 43.89M | 56.55M | 10.67M | -14.02M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 82.45M | 86.09M | 70.56M | 38.60M | 23.42M | 20.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 86.15M | 91.76M | 71.54M | 50.76M | 36.03M | 35.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.41M | -23.54M | -12.42M | -19.18M | -12.57M | -15.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -124.88M | -88.25M | -45.20M | -17.92M | -23.55M | -15.83M |
GooseHead Insurance Technical Analysis
Positive
58.75
Price Trends
49.36
Positive
46.05
Positive
55.74
Positive
Market Momentum
4.90
Negative
59.94
Neutral
60.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSHD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.09, above the 50-day MA of 49.36, and above the 200-day MA of 55.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GSHD.
GooseHead Insurance Risk Analysis
GooseHead Insurance disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GooseHead Insurance reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GooseHead Insurance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $35.12B | 7.76 | 19.52% | ― | -0.21% | 31.57% | |
81 Outperform | $1.19B | 10.19 | 17.94% | 4.78% | -4.12% | ― | |
78 Outperform | $38.44B | 9.09 | 22.99% | 1.65% | 5.95% | 39.99% | |
74 Outperform | $10.52B | 9.23 | 18.74% | 8.77% | 12.13% | 29.71% | |
72 Outperform | $2.20B | 43.36 | -32.52% | ― | 17.74% | 18.77% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
65.20
-21.39
-24.70%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
98.48
8.60
9.57%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
143.28
17.14
13.59%
ORI
Old Republic International
43.03
8.63
25.11%
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings
27.06
4.20
18.36%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.