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GooseHead Insurance Inc (GSHD)
NASDAQ:GSHD
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GooseHead Insurance
(NASDAQ:GSHD)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$91.00
▲(14.55% Upside)
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates successful market penetration and product adoption, supporting long-term business expansion.
Strategic Partnerships
Strategic partnerships enhance market reach and competitive positioning, contributing to sustainable growth and revenue diversification.
Leadership Expansion
Leadership expansion aims to enhance operational discipline and strategic alignment, supporting long-term growth and execution capabilities.
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Weakness
Negative equity raises concerns about financial stability and solvency, potentially limiting future investment and growth opportunities.
Product Market Challenges
Difficult market conditions can hinder growth and profitability, impacting long-term strategic objectives and competitive positioning.
Premium Retention Decline
Declining premium retention may indicate customer dissatisfaction or market challenges, affecting revenue stability and growth potential.
GooseHead Insurance (GSHD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)345.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)69.5
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth23.49%
EPS Growth60.38%
CountryUS
Employees1,580
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength73
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding25,350,954
10 Day Avg. Volume232,218
30 Day Avg. Volume345,626
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda66.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$114.50Price Target Upside44.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
GooseHead Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGooseHead Insurance (GSHD) is a leading independent insurance agency based in the United States, specializing in property and casualty insurance products. The company operates through a vast network of agents and offers a diverse range of insurance solutions, including auto, home, renters, and commercial insurance, primarily focusing on providing personalized coverage options to meet the unique needs of its clients. GooseHead leverages technology to enhance customer experience and streamline the insurance purchasing process, positioning itself as a modern player in the insurance market.
How the Company Makes MoneyGooseHead Insurance generates revenue primarily through commissions earned on insurance policies sold to clients. The company partners with multiple insurance carriers, allowing agents to offer a wide variety of policy options to consumers. Each time a policy is sold or renewed, GooseHead receives a percentage of the premium as commission, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, the company benefits from its growing network of franchise agents who operate under the GooseHead brand, providing another revenue stream through franchise fees and ongoing royalties. The use of advanced technology and data analytics also enables GooseHead to optimize its operations and enhance customer acquisition, contributing to its overall earnings.
GooseHead Insurance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in revenue, strategic partnerships, and expansion of the corporate sales team. However, challenges remain with the product market and economic conditions impacting premium retention and franchise producer growth. The positive impacts of AI and technology initiatives are expected to drive future growth.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and Growth Performance
Total revenue grew 20% over the previous year to $94 million, with core revenue growing 18% to $86.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 18% to $29.2 million, producing a margin of 31% for the quarter.
Franchise and Agent Expansion
The company launched 16 new franchises across 12 states in the quarter. Franchise producers ended the quarter at 2,085, up 5% from a year ago.
Corporate Sales Team Growth
The corporate sales team ended the quarter with 479 total agents, up 53% over the previous year.
Strategic Partnerships
Announced partnerships with Baird & Warner and Fay Servicing, which are expected to capture significant insurance economics and could rapidly become some of the largest agencies in the system.
AI and Technology Initiatives
Leveraging AI to optimize the client experience and reduce servicing costs, and developing a direct-to-consumer marketplace to improve outcomes across the value chain.
Negative Updates
Challenges in the Product Market
The challenging product market has been difficult, with a historically hard product and housing market impacting operations.
Premium Retention Decline
Premium retention was down from 99% in the year-ago quarter to 95% this quarter.
Franchise Producer Slowdown
Franchise producers' growth showed a slight decline since year-end, attributed to mergers and seasonal factors.
Impact of Economic Conditions
The economic environment, including housing market constraints and mortgage application cancellations, has impacted business operations.
Company Guidance
During the Goosehead Insurance Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, significant guidance was offered, highlighting the company's strategic focus and financial outlook. Goosehead aims to expand its distribution network by growing its agency staffing program, with over 500 producers hired since Q4 2022, and plans to further increase this number by year-end. The company is targeting a robust 15% to 22% growth in total written premiums for 2025, reflecting organic growth. Goosehead's new enterprise sales and partnerships team saw an 88% increase in new business compared to the previous year, with strategic partnerships like those with Baird & Warner and Fay Servicing expected to fuel future growth. The company anticipates an improvement in client retention, currently at 84%, as product availability normalizes. Goosehead's adjusted EBITDA margin for Q2 2025 was 31%, with a 20% increase in total revenue over the previous year to $94 million. The company also reported recovering $4 million in past-due commissions and anticipates a favorable shift in commission rates as business moves from state-backed plans to national carriers. Looking ahead, Goosehead reiterated its 2025 revenue guidance, expecting total revenues between $350 million and $385 million, and highlighted strategic investments in AI and technology to drive long-term growth.GooseHead Insurance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
GooseHead Insurance shows strong revenue and profit growth with improved operational efficiency. However, the balance sheet is concerning due to negative equity, indicating potential solvency issues. Cash flow is robust, providing liquidity and growth potential despite balance sheet weaknesses.Income Statement
The income statement reveals strong revenue growth with a 10% increase from the previous year to TTM. Gross profit margin improved significantly, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. Net profit margin remains healthy, although slightly reduced. Operating and EBITDA margins have shown consistent improvement, reflecting effective cost management.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet presents a concerning picture with negative stockholders' equity in the TTM, indicating potential solvency issues. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, highlighting leverage risks. Despite this, the company maintains a reasonable level of cash and short-term investments.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis demonstrates strong operating cash flow growth, supporting the company's liquidity. Free cash flow has also shown impressive growth, indicating robust cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in converting earnings into cash.78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 341.57M | 314.50M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M | 117.01M |
| Gross Profit | 154.58M | 141.56M | 108.67M | 76.10M | 58.27M | 50.20M |
| EBITDA | 64.28M | 64.99M | 45.83M | 17.01M | 13.55M | 23.09M |
| Net Income | 29.91M | 30.43M | 14.14M | 2.63M | 8.30M | 18.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 436.59M | 397.65M | 354.89M | 321.35M | 267.80M | 185.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 92.39M | 54.28M | 41.96M | 28.74M | 28.53M | 24.91M |
| Total Debt | 58.28M | 153.38M | 143.22M | 165.16M | 174.96M | 119.04M |
| Total Liabilities | 567.18M | 358.58M | 338.11M | 354.98M | 336.99M | 224.24M |
| Stockholders Equity | -78.59M | 43.89M | 56.55M | 10.67M | -14.21M | -4.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 76.15M | 70.56M | 38.60M | 23.11M | 20.04M | 14.28M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 85.00M | 71.54M | 50.76M | 35.72M | 35.44M | 24.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.96M | -12.42M | -19.18M | -12.57M | -15.38M | -10.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -697.00K | -45.20M | -17.92M | -23.25M | -15.83M | -3.33M |
GooseHead Insurance Technical Analysis
Negative
79.44
Price Trends
90.93
Negative
97.73
Negative
104.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.55
Positive
33.98
Neutral
15.04
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSHD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 79.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.39, below the 50-day MA of 90.93, and below the 200-day MA of 104.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSHD.
GooseHead Insurance Risk Analysis
GooseHead Insurance disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GooseHead Insurance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GooseHead Insurance Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $36.73B | 11.84 | 19.55% | 1.59% | 7.67% | 15.99% | |
80 Outperform | $33.81B | 9.36 | 17.09% | ― | 23.79% | -32.09% | |
79 Outperform | $1.09B | 8.75 | 20.11% | 4.17% | 9.52% | ― | |
76 Outperform | $10.02B | 11.42 | 14.63% | 7.81% | 14.20% | 50.32% | |
68 Neutral | $17.85B | 11.54 | 9.95% | 3.76% | 9.70% | 1.08% | |
66 Neutral | $1.79B | 17.57 | -1.83% | 2.34% | 20.42% | -110.82% | |
63 Neutral | $2.98B | 69.48 | 60.58% | ― | 23.49% | 60.38% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
79.44
-1.31
-1.62%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
90.60
-14.25
-13.59%
HIG
Hartford Financial
131.24
17.96
15.85%
ORI
Old Republic International
39.94
8.27
26.11%
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings
24.15
7.18
42.31%
FIHL
Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd.
17.06
0.10
0.59%
GooseHead Insurance Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
GooseHead Insurance Expands Leadership with New COO Appointment
Positive
Aug 28, 2025
On August 26, 2025, Goosehead Insurance appointed Mark E. Jones, Jr. as Chief Operating Officer, while he continues as Chief Financial Officer. This role expansion aims to enhance operational discipline and align finance, operations, and strategic functions to support Goosehead’s long-term growth strategy. The move is expected to strengthen the company’s ability to execute its strategy and deliver shareholder value, positioning Goosehead for sustained success in its goal to become the largest distributor of personal lines insurance.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.