GooseHead Insurance Inc (GSHD)
NASDAQ:GSHD
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GooseHead Insurance
(NASDAQ:GSHD)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$53.00
▲(28.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is primarily driven by strong operating performance and cash generation, reinforced by favorable growth guidance and strategic progress from the latest earnings call. These positives are meaningfully offset by elevated balance-sheet risk (higher debt and negative equity), a weak technical setup with a pronounced downtrend, and a premium P/E valuation.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash generation
GooseHead’s consistent, high-quality cash generation (operating cash flow ~$92M and FCF ~$86M in 2025, FCF ≈94% of net income) provides durable internal funding for technology, buybacks and franchise support, reducing reliance on external financing and enabling strategic reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and negative equity
A materially more leveraged balance sheet with negative equity weakens financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant sensitivity. This structural capital risk can constrain strategic options, heighten cost of capital, and amplify downside in adverse underwriting or macro scenarios.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash generation
GooseHead’s consistent, high-quality cash generation (operating cash flow ~$92M and FCF ~$86M in 2025, FCF ≈94% of net income) provides durable internal funding for technology, buybacks and franchise support, reducing reliance on external financing and enabling strategic reinvestment.
Read all positive factors
GooseHead Insurance (GSHD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)662.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)66.1
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth24.81%
EPS Growth55.93%
CountryUS
Employees1,580
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.64
Shares Outstanding24,653,390
10 Day Avg. Volume519,757
30 Day Avg. Volume662,559
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.77
Price to Book (P/B)-19.26
Price to Sales (P/S)5.04
P/FCF Ratio21.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.18Price Target Upside80.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$417.05M
GooseHead Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that provides personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Corporate Channel and Franchise Channel. It off...
How the Company Makes Money
GooseHead Insurance generates revenue primarily through commissions earned from insurance carriers for policies sold by its agents. The company's revenue model is based on a percentage of the premiums paid by policyholders, which varies depending ...
GooseHead Insurance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Type
Categorizes revenue sources, providing insight into which segments drive the most income and potential areas for growth or diversification.
Categorizes revenue sources, providing insight into which segments drive the most income and potential areas for growth or diversification.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGooseHead Insurance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally favorable picture: strong full-year revenue (+16%) and adjusted EBITDA (+14%), durable growth in written premiums (+17%), accelerating policies in force (+14%), clear productivity gains in the franchise network (gross payments per franchise +29%, same-store sales +19%), meaningful technology progress (Digital Agent 2.0 live in Texas; Lily handling hundreds of thousands of interactions), and strong cash generation (operating cash flow +28%) combined with an active share repurchase program. Offsetting items include near-term margin compression due to deliberate investments in AI, digital binding, and partnerships, some uncertainty in contingent commission levels (guidance 60–85 bps vs. 86 bps in 2025), a trailing decline in NPS tied to prior price increases, and short-term revenue headwinds from franchise consolidation. Overall, highlights materially outweigh lowlights, and management articulated a clear path for growth and margin recovery over time.Positive Updates
Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for FY2025 was $365.3 million, up 16% year-over-year; Q4 total revenue was $105.3 million, up 12% year-over-year. Core revenues grew 16% for the full year to $317.9 million and 15% in the quarter to $78.2 million.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Margin Pressure from Strategic Investments
Management expects adjusted EBITDA margins to be 'modestly down' in 2026 as the company invests in Digital Agent 2.0, partnerships and expanded AI applications. FY2025 included $2.9 million of incremental strategic investments in Q4; 2026 cash tech investment guidance is $25–35 million (with $8–11 million hitting P&L).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Revenue Growth
Total revenue for FY2025 was $365.3 million, up 16% year-over-year; Q4 total revenue was $105.3 million, up 12% year-over-year. Core revenues grew 16% for the full year to $317.9 million and 15% in the quarter to $78.2 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Goosehead guided 2026 to organic total revenue growth of 10%–19% and organic total written premium growth of 12%–20%, with low‑double‑digit core revenue growth expected in the first half and acceleration in the second half as pricing stabilizes, retention improves and partnerships/Digital Agent 2.0 scale; contingent commissions are initially expected at 60–85 basis points of TWP (vs. 86 bps in 2025), policies in force (1.9M, +14% in 2025) are expected to accelerate, and margins are forecast to be modestly down in 2026 as the company invests ($25–35M of cash technology investment, $8–11M hitting the P&L, including $2.9M in Q4); at year‑end the company held $34.4M cash, $298.5M debt, produced $91.8M cash from operations in 2025, and authorized an additional $180M share repurchase program.GooseHead Insurance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 365.30M | 314.50M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M |
| Gross Profit | 168.94M | 141.56M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M |
| EBITDA | 85.91M | 64.99M | 42.42M | 17.24M | 13.97M |
| Net Income | 27.83M | 30.43M | 14.14M | 565.00K | 5.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 414.86M | 397.65M | 354.89M | 321.35M | 270.29M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.39M | 54.28M | 41.96M | 28.74M | 28.53M |
| Total Debt | 352.29M | 153.38M | 143.22M | 165.16M | 174.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 577.65M | 358.58M | 338.11M | 354.98M | 339.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | -95.50M | 43.89M | 56.55M | 10.67M | -14.02M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 86.09M | 70.56M | 38.60M | 23.42M | 20.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 91.76M | 71.54M | 50.76M | 36.03M | 35.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.54M | -12.42M | -19.18M | -12.57M | -15.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -88.25M | -45.20M | -17.92M | -23.55M | -15.83M |
GooseHead Insurance Technical Analysis
Negative
41.19
Price Trends
55.24
Negative
63.72
Negative
75.29
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.44
Negative
33.53
Neutral
37.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSHD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 41.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.55, below the 50-day MA of 55.24, and below the 200-day MA of 75.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSHD.
GooseHead Insurance Risk Analysis
GooseHead Insurance disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GooseHead Insurance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GooseHead Insurance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $33.20B | 7.15 | 19.02% | ― | 16.68% | -28.54% | |
81 Outperform | $1.04B | 8.68 | 18.79% | 4.00% | 0.76% | ― | |
79 Outperform | $36.99B | 10.14 | 21.37% | 1.55% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
70 Outperform | $9.67B | 11.89 | 15.32% | 6.98% | 7.08% | -4.36% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
60 Neutral | $1.51B | 66.09 | -30.28% | ― | 24.81% | 55.93% | |
56 Neutral | $1.65B | 9.21 | -0.57% | 2.55% | 11.71% | -101.08% |
* Financial Sector Average
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
41.19
-77.56
-65.31%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
93.32
-2.61
-2.72%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
134.10
13.46
11.16%
ORI
Old Republic International
39.36
3.88
10.92%
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings
23.57
-0.19
-0.79%
FIHL
Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd.
19.11
3.55
22.81%
GooseHead Insurance Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Goosehead Expands Buyback Authorization and Updates 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Goosehead Insurance reported fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of $105.3 million, up 12% year on year, with core revenue rising 15% and written premiums up 13%, even as quarterly net income slipped to $20.8 million from $23.8 million and margins n...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.