GooseHead Insurance (GSHD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.02B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 572.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 52.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: 24.81%
• EPS Growth: 55.93%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,580
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.64
• Shares Outstanding: 24,653,390
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 813,170
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 572,571
• PEG Ratio: -6.77
• Price to Book (P/B): -19.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.76
• 1Y Price Target: $76.70
• Price Target Upside: 38.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $417.20M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $57.00 ▲(3.02% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is primarily driven by strong operating performance and cash generation, reinforced by favorable growth guidance and strategic progress from the latest earnings call. These positives are meaningfully offset by elevated balance-sheet risk (higher debt and negative equity), a weak technical setup with a pronounced downtrend, and a premium P/E valuation.

Positive Factors

Recurring revenue growth & franchise productivity

Sustained multi-year revenue expansion and accelerating policies-in-force indicate durable scale in commission revenue. Combined with franchise productivity gains (higher gross payments per franchise and same-store sales), this strengthens unit economics and supports predictable, repeatable cash flows over the medium term.

Strong cash generation and free cash flow

Robust operating and free cash flow that closely tracks net income provides internal funding for technology investments, buybacks, and franchise support without immediate reliance on external financing. This cash convertibility underpins strategic flexibility and enhances resilience to cyclical insurer or commission volatility.

Technology & digital distribution scale

Deploying a full digital buying/binding platform and AI-driven service tools can lower acquisition and servicing costs as adoption scales, expand addressable distribution via enterprise partnerships, and create a differentiated, durable distribution moat if rollouts continue beyond initial markets.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and negative equity

A sharp increase in debt and a shift to negative equity materially weaken financial flexibility, raising refinancing and covenant risks. This higher leverage amplifies sensitivity to revenue or commission shocks and reduces the cushion for investments or carrier disruptions over the medium term.

Margin compression from strategic investments

Planned sizable tech and AI investments will depress EBITDA margins in 2026, constraining near-term profitability and free cash flow. If revenue and retention gains take longer than expected, the margin hit could delay recovery toward targeted combined-growth/margin goals and strain returns on invested capital.

Contingent commission & revenue mix uncertainty

Material reliance on contingent commissions creates revenue and margin volatility tied to carrier profitability and compensation trends. A durable decline in contingent commission rates would directly reduce revenue and margins, making medium-term earnings more sensitive to carrier economics and regulatory shifts.

GooseHead Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that provides personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Corporate Channel and Franchise Channel. It offers homeowner's, insurance, automotive, dwelling property insurance, flood, wind, earthquake, excess liability or umbrella, motorcycle, recreational vehicle, general liability, property, and life insurance products and services. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 2,151 total franchises. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

GooseHead Insurance generates revenue primarily through commissions earned from insurance carriers for policies sold by its agents. The company's revenue model is based on a percentage of the premiums paid by policyholders, which varies depending on the type of insurance product and the terms negotiated with different insurers. Key revenue streams include personal lines insurance, such as homeowners and auto insurance, as well as commercial lines. Additionally, GooseHead benefits from its franchise model, where franchisees pay initial franchise fees and ongoing royalties based on their sales, thus contributing to the company's overall earnings. Strategic partnerships with a diverse array of insurance carriers allow GooseHead to offer competitive rates and a wide selection of products, enhancing its market position and revenue potential.

GooseHead Insurance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and improved operating profitability, supported by robust operating cash flow and free cash flow with good earnings-quality alignment. However, the sharp rise in debt and shift to negative equity materially increase financial risk and reduce balance-sheet flexibility, keeping the score below the top tier.

Income Statement

Top-line momentum remains strong, with revenue growing sharply over the past several years and still positive in 2025 (annual revenue up from $117M in 2020 to $365M in 2025). Profitability has also improved meaningfully from earlier years, with 2025 operating margin around 20% and EBITDA margin around 24%. The key weakness is earnings volatility: net margin fell in 2025 versus 2024 (about 7.6% vs. 9.7%) despite higher revenue, suggesting incremental costs and/or margin pressure.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet quality is the primary concern. Total debt rose sharply in 2025 (to ~$403M from ~$153M in 2024), while equity turned negative in 2025, which weakens financial flexibility and makes leverage risk materially higher. While assets have grown steadily, the combination of higher debt and negative equity increases sensitivity to downturns and limits the cushion available to shareholders.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow and free cash flow increased in 2025 (operating cash flow ~$92M; free cash flow ~$86M), and free cash flow growth was strong year-over-year. Free cash flow is also closely aligned with reported earnings (2025 free cash flow was roughly 94% of net income), supporting earnings quality and providing internal funding capacity. The main risk is that the stronger cash profile is occurring alongside a much more leveraged balance sheet.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	365.30M	314.50M	261.28M	209.39M	151.31M
Gross Profit	168.94M	141.56M	261.28M	209.39M	151.31M
EBITDA	85.91M	64.99M	42.42M	17.24M	13.97M
Net Income	27.83M	30.43M	14.14M	565.00K	5.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	414.86M	397.65M	354.89M	321.35M	270.29M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	34.39M	54.28M	41.96M	28.74M	28.53M
Total Debt	403.46M	153.38M	143.22M	165.16M	174.96M
Total Liabilities	577.65M	358.58M	338.11M	354.98M	339.48M
Stockholders Equity	-95.50M	43.89M	56.55M	10.67M	-14.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	86.09M	70.56M	38.60M	23.42M	20.04M
Operating Cash Flow	91.76M	71.54M	50.76M	36.03M	35.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-23.54M	-12.42M	-19.18M	-12.57M	-15.38M
Financing Cash Flow	-88.25M	-45.20M	-17.92M	-23.55M	-15.83M

GooseHead Insurance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 55.33
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSHD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 55.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.52, below the 50-day MA of 64.16, and below the 200-day MA of 80.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSHD.

GooseHead Insurance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACGL	84 Outperform	$35.96B	8.70	19.54%	―	16.68%	-28.54%
HIG	79 Outperform	$39.13B	10.58	21.66%	1.55%	7.11%	22.52%
IGIC	79 Outperform	$1.11B	8.72	18.68%	4.00%	0.76%	―
ORI	70 Outperform	$10.59B	11.52	16.22%	6.98%	7.08%	-4.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSHD	60 Neutral	$2.02B	52.85	―	―	24.81%	55.93%
FIHL	57 Neutral	$2.05B	8.97	-0.57%	2.55%	11.71%	-101.08%

GooseHead Insurance Corporate Events

Goosehead Expands Buyback Authorization and Updates 2026 Outlook

Goosehead Insurance reported fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of $105.3 million, up 12% year on year, with core revenue rising 15% and written premiums up 13%, even as quarterly net income slipped to $20.8 million from $23.8 million and margins narrowed. For full‑year 2025, net income declined to $44.5 million from $49.1 million, though adjusted EBITDA climbed 14% to $113.6 million, underscoring solid underlying growth as the firm invested heavily in technology, corporate producers, and service capacity.

The company highlighted the rollout of its Digital Agent 2.0 platform, now live in Texas, which it describes as the first end‑to‑end comparative digital buying experience for U.S. personal lines insurance, supported by AI‑driven service tools aimed at boosting efficiency and reinforcing its competitive moat. Goosehead also stepped up shareholder returns in 2025, repurchasing $81.7 million of stock at an average price of $80.60 and, on February 17, 2026, expanding its buyback authorization by a further $180 million through May 1, 2027, while guiding for 2026 organic revenue growth of 10%–19% and premium growth of 12%–20%.

In governance moves effective February 18, 2026, the board elected veteran corporate lawyer Louis Goldberg as an independent director and member of the Nominating and Governance Committee, bringing more than 28 years of board advisory experience at Davis Polk and a strong corporate governance track record. On the same date, director Thomas McConnon chose to leave the board ahead of his term’s scheduled expiry in May 2026, with the company noting that his departure did not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSHD) stock is a Hold with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GooseHead Insurance stock, see the GSHD Stock Forecast page.