GooseHead Insurance (GSHD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.26B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 333.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 80.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: 23.49%
• EPS Growth: 60.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,580
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Insurance - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 25,350,954
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 466,212
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 333,368
• PEG Ratio: 55.89
• Price to Book (P/B): -23.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 73.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 52.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.01K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.31K
• 1Y Price Target: $118.25
• Price Target Upside: 29.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $94.00 ▲(2.79%Upside)

GooseHead Insurance's overall score is supported by strong financial performance and promising strategic initiatives as highlighted in the earnings call. However, the high valuation and bearish technical indicators, combined with balance sheet concerns, temper the outlook. The company's strategic focus on technology and partnerships provides growth potential, but market and retention challenges remain significant.

Positive Factors

Growth Platform

Goosehead Insurance is seen as a better growth platform than most brokerage operations available, with bright long-term prospects.

Management Strategy

Sustained growth is expected from aggressive hiring and margin stability, helped by management’s pivot to the higher long-term profit margin franchise.

Partnerships and Joint Ventures

GSHD's launch of joint ventures with Baird & Warner real estate and Fay (mortgage) Servicing represent possible sources of upside over time.

Negative Factors

Growth Outlook

The print lowers the jump-off point for several KPIs which translates into a worse 2026 growth outlook.

Revenue Growth

The revenue growth in the second quarter did not meet the expected acceleration, indicating a growth trajectory closer to 20% rather than the 30% investors once expected.

Stock Valuation

The stock is considered fully valued, even under assumptions of rapid bottom-line growth, and trades above the traditional measures of other insurance brokers.

GooseHead Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that provides personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Corporate Channel and Franchise Channel. It offers homeowner's, insurance, automotive, dwelling property insurance, flood, wind, earthquake, excess liability or umbrella, motorcycle, recreational vehicle, general liability, property, and life insurance products and services. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 2,151 total franchises. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Goosehead Insurance makes money primarily through commissions earned on the sale of insurance policies. The company partners with a variety of insurance carriers and receives a percentage of the premium of each policy sold as a commission. Goosehead's revenue model is supported by its dual-distribution platform, consisting of corporate sales agents and franchisees. The corporate agents contribute to revenue through direct sales, while the franchise network expands the company's reach and contributes to revenue through royalties and franchise fees. This model allows Goosehead to scale efficiently by leveraging the entrepreneurial efforts of franchise owners, while maintaining a focus on client service and leveraging technology to enhance operational efficiency. Significant partnerships with major insurance carriers provide Goosehead with a broad portfolio of products to offer clients, contributing to its revenue growth and market presence.

GooseHead Insurance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GooseHead Insurance shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with a solid cash flow position. However, the balance sheet reveals significant leverage concerns due to negative equity, which poses a risk to long-term financial stability.

Income Statement

GooseHead Insurance demonstrates strong revenue growth with a revenue increase from $209.39M in 2022 to $325.63M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin has improved to 44.97% in TTM. However, the net profit margin remains modest at 9.51%, suggesting room for efficiency improvements. The EBIT margin is 20.36%, showing operational profitability. Overall, the income statement reflects a healthy growth trajectory and solid operational performance, although net profitability could be enhanced.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity of -$88.54M in TTM, indicating potential solvency risk. Return on equity is not meaningful due to negative equity. Despite substantial total assets of $412.56M, the equity ratio is unfavorable. The financial leverage poses a risk, although the company has managed to maintain cash reserves. Improvement in equity health is necessary for long-term stability.

Cash Flow

GooseHead Insurance has a strong operating cash flow of $75.17M in TTM, surpassing net income and indicating good cash generation capability. The free cash flow increased to $65.18M, showing a healthy cash position after capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.43, highlighting efficient cash conversion. The cash flow statement reflects good liquidity, though careful management of financing activities is advised to maintain cash reserves.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	314.50M	261.28M	209.39M	151.31M	117.01M
Gross Profit	141.56M	108.67M	76.10M	58.27M	50.20M
EBITDA	64.99M	45.83M	17.01M	13.55M	23.09M
Net Income	30.43M	14.14M	2.63M	8.30M	18.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	397.65M	354.89M	321.35M	267.80M	185.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.28M	41.96M	28.74M	28.53M	24.91M
Total Debt	153.38M	143.22M	165.16M	174.96M	119.04M
Total Liabilities	358.58M	338.11M	354.98M	336.99M	224.24M
Stockholders Equity	43.89M	56.55M	10.67M	-14.21M	-4.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	70.56M	38.60M	23.11M	20.04M	14.28M
Operating Cash Flow	71.54M	50.76M	35.72M	35.44M	24.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.42M	-19.18M	-12.57M	-15.38M	-10.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-45.20M	-17.92M	-23.25M	-15.83M	-3.33M

GooseHead Insurance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 91.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSHD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 91.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.35, below the 50-day MA of 102.66, and below the 200-day MA of 106.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSHD.

GooseHead Insurance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HIG	79 Outperform	$35.05B	11.30	19.55%	1.63%	7.67%	15.99%
IGIC	79 Outperform	$1.06B	8.60	20.50%	4.17%	13.29%	17.14%
ESGR	77 Outperform	$5.04B	10.80	8.56%	―	10.70%	-39.16%
PFG	72 Outperform	$17.98B	17.19	10.16%	3.86%	5.84%	-10.64%
FIHL	66 Neutral	$1.65B	17.57	-0.42%	2.65%	23.28%	-103.35%
GSHD	64 Neutral	$3.26B	79.99	60.58%	―	23.49%	60.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	C$15.14B	6.41	23.28%	5.57%	33.61%	-23.69%

GooseHead Insurance Corporate Events

GooseHead Insurance Appoints Bill Wade to Board

On April 16, 2025, Goosehead Insurance appointed Bill Wade to its Board of Directors. Wade, a former senior partner at Bain & Company with over 25 years of experience, is recognized for his expertise in leveraging AI and emerging technologies to drive innovation and growth. His appointment is seen as a strategic move to bolster Goosehead’s technology-driven expansion in the insurance industry, aiming to enhance client experiences and solidify its leadership position.