GooseHead Insurance (GSHD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 416.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 77.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 23.49%
• EPS Growth: 60.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,580
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Insurance - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 25,350,954
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 383,664
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 416,473
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.32
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 66.44
• 1Y Price Target: $116.20
• Price Target Upside: 34.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $91.00 ▲(5.11% Upside)

GooseHead Insurance's overall score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, tempered by technical analysis indicating bearish momentum and valuation concerns. The company's strategic initiatives and growth prospects are promising, but leverage risks and market challenges remain significant.

Positive Factors

Joint Ventures

GSHD's launch of joint ventures with Baird & Warner real estate and Fay (mortgage) Servicing represent possible sources of upside over time.

Management Strategy

Sustained growth is expected from aggressive hiring and margin stability, helped by management’s pivot to the higher long-term profit margin franchise.

Negative Factors

Growth Outlook

The print lowers the jump-off point for several KPIs which translates into a worse 2026 growth outlook.

Valuation Concerns

The stock is considered fully valued, even under assumptions of rapid bottom-line growth, and trades above the traditional measures of other insurance brokers.

GooseHead Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that provides personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Corporate Channel and Franchise Channel. It offers homeowner's, insurance, automotive, dwelling property insurance, flood, wind, earthquake, excess liability or umbrella, motorcycle, recreational vehicle, general liability, property, and life insurance products and services. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 2,151 total franchises. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

GooseHead Insurance generates revenue primarily through commissions earned on insurance policies sold to clients. The company partners with multiple insurance carriers, allowing agents to offer a wide variety of policy options to consumers. Each time a policy is sold or renewed, GooseHead receives a percentage of the premium as commission, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, the company benefits from its growing network of franchise agents who operate under the GooseHead brand, providing another revenue stream through franchise fees and ongoing royalties. The use of advanced technology and data analytics also enables GooseHead to optimize its operations and enhance customer acquisition, contributing to its overall earnings.

GooseHead Insurance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GooseHead Insurance shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with a solid cash flow position. However, the balance sheet reveals significant leverage concerns due to negative equity, which poses a risk to long-term financial stability.

Income Statement

GooseHead Insurance demonstrates strong revenue growth with a revenue increase from $209.39M in 2022 to $325.63M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin has improved to 44.97% in TTM. However, the net profit margin remains modest at 9.51%, suggesting room for efficiency improvements. The EBIT margin is 20.36%, showing operational profitability. Overall, the income statement reflects a healthy growth trajectory and solid operational performance, although net profitability could be enhanced.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative stockholders' equity of -$88.54M in TTM, indicating potential solvency risk. Return on equity is not meaningful due to negative equity. Despite substantial total assets of $412.56M, the equity ratio is unfavorable. The financial leverage poses a risk, although the company has managed to maintain cash reserves. Improvement in equity health is necessary for long-term stability.

Cash Flow

GooseHead Insurance has a strong operating cash flow of $75.17M in TTM, surpassing net income and indicating good cash generation capability. The free cash flow increased to $65.18M, showing a healthy cash position after capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.43, highlighting efficient cash conversion. The cash flow statement reflects good liquidity, though careful management of financing activities is advised to maintain cash reserves.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	314.50M	261.28M	209.39M	151.31M	117.01M
Gross Profit	141.56M	108.67M	76.10M	58.27M	50.20M
EBITDA	64.99M	45.83M	17.01M	13.55M	23.09M
Net Income	30.43M	14.14M	2.63M	8.30M	18.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	397.65M	354.89M	321.35M	267.80M	185.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.28M	41.96M	28.74M	28.53M	24.91M
Total Debt	153.38M	143.22M	165.16M	174.96M	119.04M
Total Liabilities	358.58M	338.11M	354.98M	336.99M	224.24M
Stockholders Equity	43.89M	56.55M	10.67M	-14.21M	-4.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	70.56M	38.60M	23.11M	20.04M	14.28M
Operating Cash Flow	71.54M	50.76M	35.72M	35.44M	24.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.42M	-19.18M	-12.57M	-15.38M	-10.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-45.20M	-17.92M	-23.25M	-15.83M	-3.33M

GooseHead Insurance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 86.58
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSHD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 86.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 87.37, below the 50-day MA of 95.54, and below the 200-day MA of 105.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSHD.

GooseHead Insurance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HIG	79 Outperform	$37.06B	11.95	19.55%	1.52%	7.67%	15.99%
IGIC	79 Outperform	$1.09B	8.75	20.11%	3.95%	9.51%	―
ESGR	77 Outperform		―		―	10.70%	-39.16%
PFG	73 Outperform	$17.51B	15.83	10.16%	3.76%	-3.34%	-3.32%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.49B	11.70	10.34%	3.85%	9.75%	0.63%
FIHL	66 Neutral	$1.89B	17.57	-1.83%	2.27%	20.42%	-110.82%
GSHD	63 Neutral	$3.24B	77.42	60.58%	―	23.49%	60.38%

GooseHead Insurance Corporate Events

GooseHead Insurance Appoints Bill Wade to Board

On April 16, 2025, Goosehead Insurance appointed Bill Wade to its Board of Directors. Wade, a former senior partner at Bain & Company with over 25 years of experience, is recognized for his expertise in leveraging AI and emerging technologies to drive innovation and growth. His appointment is seen as a strategic move to bolster Goosehead’s technology-driven expansion in the insurance industry, aiming to enhance client experiences and solidify its leadership position.