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GooseHead Insurance Inc (GSHD)
NASDAQ:GSHD
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GooseHead Insurance
(NASDAQ:GSHD)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$77.00
▲(3.36% Upside)
GooseHead Insurance's overall score is driven by strong earnings call performance and solid financial efficiency, but is offset by high leverage, negative equity, and overvaluation concerns. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, adding to the cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial health.
Client Retention
Improved client retention enhances revenue stability and customer loyalty, providing a competitive edge in the insurance market.
Partnerships
Strategic partnerships expand distribution channels and market reach, potentially increasing policy sales and revenue growth.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth.
Free Cash Flow Decline
Declining free cash flow limits the company's ability to reinvest in operations or reduce debt, potentially hindering long-term growth.
Depressed Housing Market
A sluggish housing market can reduce demand for related insurance products, affecting premium growth and revenue potential.
GooseHead Insurance (GSHD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.74B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)265.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)62.9
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth24.81%
EPS Growth55.93%
CountryUS
Employees1,580
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.46
Shares Outstanding24,908,880
10 Day Avg. Volume182,677
30 Day Avg. Volume265,881
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.80
Price to Book (P/B)60.24
Price to Sales (P/S)8.41
P/FCF Ratio37.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda34.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$84.78Price Target Upside13.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
GooseHead Insurance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGoosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that provides personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Corporate Channel and Franchise Channel. It offers homeowner's, insurance, automotive, dwelling property insurance, flood, wind, earthquake, excess liability or umbrella, motorcycle, recreational vehicle, general liability, property, and life insurance products and services. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 2,151 total franchises. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyGooseHead Insurance generates revenue primarily through commissions earned from insurance carriers for policies sold by its agents. The company's revenue model is based on a percentage of the premiums paid by policyholders, which varies depending on the type of insurance product and the terms negotiated with different insurers. Key revenue streams include personal lines insurance, such as homeowners and auto insurance, as well as commercial lines. Additionally, GooseHead benefits from its franchise model, where franchisees pay initial franchise fees and ongoing royalties based on their sales, thus contributing to the company's overall earnings. Strategic partnerships with a diverse array of insurance carriers allow GooseHead to offer competitive rates and a wide selection of products, enhancing its market position and revenue potential.
GooseHead Insurance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
GooseHead Insurance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth and strong partnerships, along with improvements in client retention and contingent commissions. However, challenges such as a decrease in operating franchise count, high turnover, and a depressed housing market were noted. Overall, the positives in revenue growth, partnerships, and client retention outweigh the negatives, marking a strong performance with some areas for improvement.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 16% over the previous year to $90.4 million, with core revenue growing 14% to $83.9 million.
Record Franchise Producer Growth
Franchise producers at quarter end were 2,124, up 1% from a year ago, with producers per franchise growing 6% over the previous year.
Successful New Partnerships
Goosehead partnered with a top 20 mortgage originator and servicer, poised to become one of the largest agencies in the Goosehead system upon launch.
Improvement in Client Retention
Client retention improved to 85% at quarter end, after four consecutive quarters at 84%.
Enterprise Sales Team Growth
The enterprise sales team grew over 100% versus Q3 last year.
Contingent Commissions Surge
Contingent commissions for the quarter were $4.5 million compared to $2.5 million in the previous year, an increase of 82%.
Negative Updates
Decreasing Operating Franchise Count
Operating franchise count for the quarter was 1,068, a decrease of 4% over the previous year.
High Turnover in Corporate Sales Team
Turnover in the corporate sales team remains higher than targeted levels, although trending in the right direction.
Challenging Housing Market
Housing activity remains depressed, impacting written premium growth.
Lower Written Premium Growth
Written premiums for the quarter were $1.2 billion, up 15% from a year ago, which is lower than the 17% new business royalty fee growth seen in franchise.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2025, Goosehead Insurance presented strong performance metrics and outlined strategic initiatives for continued growth. The company reported a 16% year-over-year increase in total revenue, reaching $90.4 million, with core revenue growing by 14% to $83.9 million and adjusted EBITDA increasing by 14% to $29.7 million. Total written premiums rose by 15% to $1.2 billion, with franchise premiums up 18% to $976 million. Goosehead's client retention improved to 85%, and the company saw record franchise growth with 90 new producers and 34 new agencies launched across 13 states. The enterprise sales team experienced a growth rate exceeding 100% compared to the previous year. Goosehead is investing significantly in its digital agent platform, with projected investments of $25-$35 million annually in 2026 and 2027, aiming to drive total written premium growth to 40% within five years. The company reiterated its 2025 guidance, expecting total revenues between $350 million and $385 million and total written premiums placed between $4.38 billion and $4.65 billion.GooseHead Insurance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
GooseHead Insurance shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with healthy gross and EBIT margins. However, the balance sheet reveals high leverage and negative equity, posing financial instability risks. Cash flow generation is efficient, but the decline in free cash flow growth is concerning.Income Statement
GooseHead Insurance shows a positive revenue growth trend with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.63%. The company maintains healthy gross and EBIT margins at 45.62% and 21.16% respectively, indicating strong operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin is relatively modest at 8.55%, suggesting room for improvement in cost management.Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a concerning negative stockholders' equity, resulting in a negative debt-to-equity ratio. This indicates high leverage and potential financial instability. The return on equity is also negative, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders.Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.68, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting a decline in cash available for reinvestment or debt reduction.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 353.97M | 314.50M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M | 117.01M |
| Gross Profit | 256.91M | 141.56M | 261.28M | 209.39M | 151.31M | 117.01M |
| EBITDA | 82.49M | 64.99M | 42.42M | 17.24M | 13.97M | 23.60M |
| Net Income | 30.25M | 30.43M | 14.14M | 565.00K | 5.40M | 9.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 403.60M | 397.65M | 354.89M | 321.35M | 270.29M | 185.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.59M | 54.28M | 41.96M | 28.74M | 28.53M | 24.91M |
| Total Debt | 57.65M | 153.38M | 143.22M | 165.16M | 174.96M | 119.04M |
| Total Liabilities | 574.32M | 358.58M | 338.11M | 354.98M | 339.48M | 224.24M |
| Stockholders Equity | -104.98M | 43.89M | 56.55M | 10.67M | -14.02M | -4.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 72.38M | 70.56M | 38.60M | 23.42M | 20.04M | 14.28M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.11M | 71.54M | 50.76M | 36.03M | 35.44M | 24.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.97M | -12.42M | -19.18M | -12.57M | -15.38M | -10.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -58.73M | -45.20M | -17.92M | -23.55M | -15.83M | -3.33M |
GooseHead Insurance Technical Analysis
Positive
74.50
Price Trends
72.30
Positive
74.40
Positive
88.19
Negative
Market Momentum
0.29
Positive
52.63
Neutral
64.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSHD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 74.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.09, above the 50-day MA of 72.30, and below the 200-day MA of 88.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GSHD.
GooseHead Insurance Risk Analysis
GooseHead Insurance disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GooseHead Insurance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GooseHead Insurance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $33.81B | 8.49 | 17.81% | ― | 16.68% | -28.54% | |
79 Outperform | $1.04B | 8.50 | 18.68% | 4.00% | 0.76% | ― | |
79 Outperform | $10.52B | 12.59 | 12.96% | 6.98% | 7.08% | -4.36% | |
78 Outperform | $37.68B | 10.77 | 20.07% | 1.55% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | $2.74B | 62.91 | ― | ― | 24.81% | 55.93% | |
57 Neutral | $1.99B | -360.97 | -0.57% | 2.55% | 11.71% | -101.08% |
* Financial Sector Average
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
71.53
-29.18
-28.97%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.