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Grab (GRAB)
NASDAQ:GRAB

Grab (GRAB) AI Stock Analysis

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GRAB

Grab

(NASDAQ:GRAB)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(4.65% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (revenue scale-up, margin recovery, and positive TTM net income), supported by a largely positive earnings-call outlook and raised EBITDA guidance. Offsetting factors are weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a demanding valuation (very high P/E), with cash-flow softness versus 2024 also tempering the financial improvement.
Positive Factors
Robust On‑demand GMV and revenue growth
Sustained double‑digit GMV and revenue growth indicates expanding platform usage and demand across core markets. Durable scale benefits (more transactions, higher network effects) should support higher take rates, merchandising and ad monetization over the medium term, strengthening unit economics as volume grows.
Consistent profitability improvement and higher EBITDA guidance
A meaningful rise in adjusted EBITDA guidance, after 15 consecutive quarters of sequential operating improvement, signals durable operating leverage. This reflects improved cost discipline and scale in core operations, increasing probability that profitability gains can persist even as growth normalizes.
Large user base and expanding financial services footprint
A 48 million monthly transacting user base creates sustained cross‑sell and retention advantages for payments, lending, and advertising. Coupled with a growing loan book (target >$1B), this entrenches the ecosystem, diversifies revenue mix toward higher‑margin fintech products, and supports long‑term monetization.
Negative Factors
Thin net margins
Despite recent profitability, margins remain modest and leave the business sensitive to incentive spending, competitive price pressure, or cost inflation. Low net margins reduce cushioning against cyclical shocks and make sustained earnings growth dependent on continued margin expansion or material improvements in higher‑margin fintech revenue.
Rising leverage and weakening cash‑flow momentum
A sharp increase in debt reduces financial flexibility if operational momentum falters. Cash generation has also weakened (TTM free cash flow down sharply versus 2024), so higher leverage combined with volatile working‑capital and investment needs raises refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.
Credit loss pressure from rapid loan growth
Rapid scale‑up of the lending book boosts revenue potential but also increases expected credit loss provisions. Rising provisioning is a structural profitability headwind for fintech expansion and heightens sensitivity to underwriting quality and macroeconomic stress, potentially constraining net returns on financial services.

Grab (GRAB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Grab Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGrab Holdings Limited provides superapps that allows access to mobility, delivery, financial services, and enterprise offerings through its mobile application in Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The company is headquartered in Singapore.
How the Company Makes MoneyGrab generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, it earns money from its ride-hailing services by taking a percentage of each fare charged to passengers. In addition to transport, its food delivery service, GrabFood, contributes significantly to its revenue by charging restaurants a commission on orders placed through the app. Furthermore, Grab has ventured into financial services, offering digital payments and lending products through GrabPay, which also generates transaction fees. Partnerships with local and international businesses enhance its service offerings and drive customer engagement, while strategic collaborations with financial institutions allow Grab to expand its fintech capabilities. Other revenue sources include advertising services within the app and logistics services through GrabExpress.

Grab Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in user growth, profitability, and cash flow improvement, driven by product-led innovations and strong market performance. However, challenges remain in margin expansion and increased credit loss provisions. The company's strategic initiatives in financial services and quick commerce are promising, but operational costs and competitive pressures continue to be areas of concern.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Growth in Monthly Transacting Users and GMV
Achieved a 6 million year-over-year increase in monthly transacting users to 48 million, driving a 24% year-on-year increase in on-demand GMV.
Strong Profitability Improvement
Group adjusted EBITDA rose 51% year-on-year to a record $136 million, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of sequential profitability improvement.
Significant Improvement in Free Cash Flow
Adjusted free cash flow improved by $185 million year-on-year to $283 million on a trailing 12-month basis.
Positive Outlook for Financial Services
On track for the financial services loan portfolio to exceed $1 billion by year-end, with loan dispersals up 56% year-over-year.
Expansion of GrabMart and Quick Commerce Initiatives
GrabMart is growing at 1.5x the rate of food delivery, with experiments in quick commerce in Malaysia and Indonesia showing promising results.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Margin Expansion
Although margins are improving, the Mart business is still underpenetrated and has lower margins than food delivery due to rapid growth and scale challenges.
Increased Expected Credit Loss Provisions
An increase in expected credit losses due to accelerated loan growth, impacting the financial services segment's bottom line.
Higher Driver Incentives
An increase in driver incentives was necessary to maintain service reliability, offsetting some gains from lower consumer incentives.
Company Guidance
During Grab's Q3 2025 earnings call, the company reported a significant increase in monthly transacting users, reaching 48 million, a 6 million year-over-year rise. This growth contributed to a 24% year-on-year increase in on-demand gross merchandise value (GMV), or 20% on a constant currency basis. The company's adjusted EBITDA soared 51% year-on-year to a record $136 million, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of sequential profitability improvement. Adjusted free cash flow rose by $185 million year-on-year to $283 million on a trailing 12-month basis. Looking forward, Grab expects its financial services loan portfolio to exceed $1 billion by year-end and anticipates its full-year on-demand GMV growth will accelerate from 2024 levels. Consequently, the Mobility and Delivery segments are on track to achieve record GMV levels by the end of 2025. The company remains confident in driving sustainable long-term value, with a focus on accessibility, affordability, and reliability. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year 2025 has been raised to between $490 million and $500 million, despite Q1 2026 traditionally being a softer season.

Grab Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement shows a strong turnaround with multi-year revenue growth, gross margin recovery (~43% TTM), and positive TTM net income ($122M), but profitability remains thin (~3.8% TTM net margin). Balance sheet leverage is still moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.33) yet debt rose sharply in the latest period. Cash flow is positive (TTM FCF $172M) but has weakened versus 2024 (TTM FCF growth -72.8%), raising questions about consistency of cash generation.
Income Statement
71
Positive
Results show a clear multi-year profitability turnaround. Revenue expanded from $469M (2020) to $2.80B (2024), and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is $3.23B with positive growth. Margins have improved materially: gross margin rose from deeply negative levels (2020–2021) to ~42% (2024) and ~43% in TTM, while net income flipped from sizable losses (2021–2023) to a small loss in 2024 and a profit of $122M in TTM. Offsetting the progress, profitability is still thin (TTM net margin ~3.8%), leaving results more sensitive to cost pressure or slower growth than a mature software peer.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet is anchored by a sizable equity base ($6.47B in TTM vs. $2.14B total debt), keeping leverage moderate (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.33). Total assets increased to $11.36B in TTM, suggesting balance sheet scale has improved alongside the business. The main watch-out is the step-up in debt versus 2024 ($364M to $2.14B in TTM), which reduces flexibility if profitability stalls, and returns on equity remain low (TTM ~1.9%), indicating the company is not yet generating strong returns on its capital base.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash generation is positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with operating cash flow of $263M and free cash flow of $172M, and free cash flow covers a meaningful portion of net income (~65%). However, cash flow momentum is weaker than earnings momentum: free cash flow declined sharply versus the prior annual period (TTM free cash flow growth -72.8%), and operating cash flow in TTM is well below 2024 levels ($852M in 2024). This suggests working-capital or investment needs are absorbing cash even as accounting profitability improves.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.23B2.80B2.36B1.43B675.00M469.00M
Gross Profit1.39B1.17B860.00M77.00M-395.00M-494.00M
EBITDA311.00M93.00M-222.00M-1.42B-1.51B-923.00M
Net Income122.00M-105.00M-434.00M-1.68B-3.45B-2.61B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.36B9.29B8.79B9.17B11.18B5.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.93B5.63B5.04B5.09B8.08B3.30B
Total Debt2.14B364.00M793.00M1.36B2.17B251.00M
Total Liabilities4.84B2.94B2.32B2.51B3.16B11.74B
Stockholders Equity6.47B6.40B6.45B6.60B7.73B-6.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow172.00M775.00M15.00M-856.00M-1.03B-683.00M
Operating Cash Flow263.00M852.00M86.00M-798.00M-954.00M-643.00M
Investing Cash Flow-869.00M-231.00M1.87B-1.06B-2.76B-318.00M
Financing Cash Flow1.07B-771.00M-770.00M-1.12B6.57B1.58B

Grab Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.30
Price Trends
50DMA
4.96
Negative
100DMA
5.44
Negative
200DMA
5.18
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.17
Positive
RSI
33.59
Neutral
STOCH
23.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRAB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.70, below the 50-day MA of 4.96, and below the 200-day MA of 5.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRAB.

Grab Risk Analysis

Grab disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grab reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Our growing use of artificial intelligence and machine learning may present additional risks, including risks associated with algorithm development or use, the data sets used, and/or a complex, developing regulatory environment. Q4, 2024

Grab Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$9.76B20.4115.33%10.16%18.29%
74
Outperform
$166.33B10.2777.55%18.25%277.10%
72
Outperform
$18.29B71.3515.96%25.76%
67
Neutral
$88.19B103.8110.11%24.46%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
61
Neutral
$17.57B142.861.92%20.22%
55
Neutral
$6.74B46.7724.53%14.90%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GRAB
Grab
4.30
-0.24
-5.29%
LYFT
Lyft
16.87
3.06
22.16%
UBER
Uber Technologies
80.05
12.76
18.96%
DASH
DoorDash
204.62
13.82
7.24%
TOST
Toast Inc
31.11
-8.90
-22.24%
CART
Maplebear
37.16
-10.97
-22.79%

Grab Corporate Events

Grab Holdings Announces Board Changes with New Independent Director
Dec 1, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Grab Holdings Limited announced changes to its board of directors, with Laura Franco joining as an independent director and Ng Shin Ein retiring. Laura Franco, with her extensive legal and regulatory experience, is expected to contribute significantly to Grab’s strategic growth and innovation. These changes reflect Grab’s ongoing commitment to strengthening its leadership as it continues to expand its influence in the Southeast Asian market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab Announces Board of Directors Update
Dec 1, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Grab Holdings Limited announced changes to its board of directors. Laura Franco, previously an Executive Vice President and General Counsel at Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp., joined the board as an independent director, while Ng Shin Ein retired. Additionally, Steven Tishman, an existing independent director, was appointed to the Audit and Compensation Committees, and Laura Franco joined the Nominating Committee. These changes reflect Grab’s strategic focus on strengthening its governance structure as it continues to expand its operations across Southeast Asia.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting for Shareholder Engagement
Nov 12, 2025

On November 11, 2025, Grab Holdings Limited announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting of shareholders, scheduled for December 5, 2025, at its Global Headquarters in Singapore. The meeting will serve as an open forum for shareholders to discuss company affairs with management, with no proposals submitted for approval. Shareholders of record as of November 14, 2025, are entitled to attend, and must register their interest by November 19, 2025. This meeting underscores Grab’s commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, reflecting its strategic focus on maintaining strong stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Buy with a $7.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab Announces Strategic Investment in Remote Driving Tech Firm Vay
Nov 10, 2025

On November 10, 2025, Grab Holdings Limited announced a strategic investment of $60 million in Vay Technology GmbH, a company specializing in automotive-grade remote driving technology. This investment, subject to regulatory approval, is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025 and will grant Grab a minority equity interest in Vay. The deal includes potential for Grab to increase its stake by an additional $350 million, contingent on Vay meeting specific financial and operational milestones. This move positions Grab to potentially own a majority stake in Vay within three years, enhancing its technological capabilities and market presence in the remote driving sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Buy with a $6.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab Announces Strategic Investment in Remote Driving Company Vay
Nov 10, 2025

On November 10, 2025, Grab Holdings Limited announced a strategic investment in Vay Technology GmbH, a remote driving technology company. The initial investment of $60 million, with a potential additional $350 million, aims to enhance Grab’s mobility offerings and accelerate its expertise in autonomous and remote driving. This investment will support Vay’s expansion in the U.S. and create synergies with Grab’s long-term mobility strategy. The collaboration is expected to reduce private car ownership by promoting on-demand, shared vehicle services, aligning with Grab’s vision for future mobility in Southeast Asia.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Buy with a $6.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab Holdings Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 4, 2025

Grab Holdings Limited reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing a strong performance with a 22% year-over-year revenue increase to $873 million, driven by growth in its On-Demand and Financial Services segments. The company achieved a profit of $17 million for the quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA of $136 million, marking a 51% year-over-year improvement. The On-Demand GMV grew by 24% year-over-year to $5.8 billion, supported by a rise in monthly transacting users and transactions. Grab’s deliveries segment also saw a 23% revenue growth, bolstered by increased GMV and advertising revenue. The company’s financial health remains robust with a gross cash liquidity of $7.4 billion, although net cash used in operating activities increased due to higher cash outflows in its banking and lending businesses.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Buy with a $7.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab Holdings Reports Robust Q3 2025 Financial Growth
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Grab Holdings Limited reported its third-quarter financial results, showcasing significant growth and profitability. The company achieved a 22% year-over-year revenue increase to $873 million, driven by its On-Demand and Financial Services segments. On-Demand GMV rose by 24% year-over-year to $5.8 billion, and the company recorded a profit of $17 million for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA improved by 51% to $136 million, marking the fifteenth consecutive quarter of growth. Grab’s strategic focus on innovation and disciplined investments in core and emerging areas like Autonomous Vehicles and Remote Driving is expected to continue driving its growth trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Buy with a $7.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 13, 2026