tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Grab (GRAB)
NASDAQ:GRAB

Grab (GRAB) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
4,329 Followers

Top Page

GRAB

Grab

(NASDAQ:GRAB)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(7.66% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (return to profitability, healthier margins) and a strong, detailed outlook from management (2026 guidance and multi-year targets, plus buybacks). Offsetting these positives are weak technicals (downtrend across key moving averages with negative MACD), a demanding valuation (high P/E), and ongoing concerns around cash-flow consistency and rising debt.
Positive Factors
Return to profitability and strong gross margins
Grab shifted from multi-year losses to full-year profitability in 2025 with positive EBIT and EBITDA and ~43% gross margin. This indicates durable improvement in unit economics and operating leverage, making future reinvestment and cash generation less dependent on one-off gains.
Strengthening free cash flow and capital returns
Consistent positive adjusted free cash flow in 2025 ($290M) and a newly authorized $500M repurchase signal improving cash conversion and balance sheet liquidity. Sustained FCF supports strategic reinvestment, buybacks and cushions execution risk over the medium term.
Financial services scale and fintech expansion
Rapid fintech growth (>$1B loan book, millions of deposit customers) diversifies high-margin revenue away from core on-demand services. If credit performance holds, Financial Services can sustainably expand margins and recurring income, materially improving group profitability.
Negative Factors
Margin improvement concentrated in Financial Services
Management's margin roadmap depends heavily on Financial Services reaching scale and breakeven. This concentrates execution risk on loan growth, credit performance and partner bank execution; failure to deliver would structurally impair expected EBITDA and FCF expansion.
Rising leverage versus prior year
Meaningful debt growth versus 2024 increases leverage and reduces financial flexibility. Higher debt raises refinancing and covenant risk, limiting capacity for opportunistic investments or buffering shocks, which is a durable constraint if profitability softens.
Volatile cash flow and weaker operating cash flow
Although FCF was positive in 2025, year‑over‑year declines and historically large swings show cash conversion volatility. Modest coverage of net income by FCF and variable OCF raise concerns about earnings quality and the consistency of internally funded expansion over time.

Grab (GRAB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Grab Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGrab Holdings Limited provides superapps that allows access to mobility, delivery, financial services, and enterprise offerings through its mobile application in Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The company is headquartered in Singapore.
How the Company Makes MoneyGrab generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, it earns money from its ride-hailing services by taking a percentage of each fare charged to passengers. In addition to transport, its food delivery service, GrabFood, contributes significantly to its revenue by charging restaurants a commission on orders placed through the app. Furthermore, Grab has ventured into financial services, offering digital payments and lending products through GrabPay, which also generates transaction fees. Partnerships with local and international businesses enhance its service offerings and drive customer engagement, while strategic collaborations with financial institutions allow Grab to expand its fintech capabilities. Other revenue sources include advertising services within the app and logistics services through GrabExpress.

Grab Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong and broad‑based operational and financial momentum: double‑digit GMV and revenue growth, record loan book expansion, marked profitability improvement (first full‑year net profit), growing free cash flow, and detailed multi‑year targets (2026 guidance plus 2028 roadmap). Product innovation, AI‑driven operating leverage and Financial Services are presented as the primary engines for future margin expansion. Key risks include dependency on Financial Services execution, regulatory and driver welfare uncertainty in Indonesia, capital intensity of AV/robotics initiatives, and integration/execution risk from the Stash acquisition. Overall, the positives — clear revenue and profitability acceleration, strong cash generation and scalable AI efficiencies — materially outweigh the challenges and risks discussed.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong On‑Demand GMV and Transaction Growth
On‑Demand GMV grew 21% year‑over‑year (20% constant currency) in 4Q/2025, with transactions outpacing GMV at 24% YoY, driving top‑line momentum and higher transaction frequency.
Revenue and Profitability Acceleration
Group revenue for the quarter rose 19% YoY (17% cc) to $906 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $148 million in the quarter and full‑year adjusted EBITDA grew 60% YoY to $500 million. 2025 marked the company's first full year of net profit.
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Adjusted free cash flow was $76 million in the quarter and $290 million for the full year 2025, underpinning a commitment to disciplined capital allocation and a new $500 million share repurchase (bringing total repurchases to $1 billion).
Financial Services Momentum
Gross loan portfolio surpassed $1 billion for the first time, ending 2025 at $1.3 billion (net loan portfolio $1.2 billion), well above prior guidance of $1.0 billion. Deposit customers across three banks reached 7.4 million.
Ambitious Multi‑Year Guidance
Management provided 2026 guidance of 20–22% revenue growth to $4.04–$4.10 billion and 40–44% adjusted EBITDA growth to $700–$720 million; 2025–2028 targets include 20% revenue CAGR and adjusted EBITDA tripling to $1.5 billion by 2028.
Improving Operating Leverage and AI Efficiency
Corporate cost as a percentage of revenue improved from ~17% in 2023 to 11% in 2025 (600 bps improvement). Over 90% of Mobility rides are AI‑dispatched, merchant listings 97% available in English/Chinese, and internal AI/segmentation (1,000+ attributes, 200,000 segments) driving conversion and headcount efficiency.
Product Innovation Driving New Growth
New products contributed materially to GMV expansion; new product initiatives accounted for nearly half of GMV growth on a full‑year basis, with an example of GrabMart users increasing 30% YoY in 2025.
GrabMart and Grocery Momentum
GrabMart is growing 1.7x faster than GrabFood, with 30% YoY user growth in 2025; although GrabMart is only ~10% of Deliveries GMV today, management sees substantial upside given low online grocery penetration in the region.
Merchant Performance and Ecosystem Monetization
Active Deliveries merchants rose 9% YoY in 2025 and merchant earnings increased 11% YoY, supported by integrated merchant tools (advertising, POS/payments, lending, insights) that drive sustained earnings growth.
Strategic M&A: Stash Acquisition
Announced acquisition of U.S. digital investing platform Stash (positive EBITDA and free cash flow today), expected to contribute an estimated >$60 million adjusted EBITDA by 2028 and accelerate the wealth roadmap and capabilities.
Negative Updates
Concentration of Future Margin Improvement on Financial Services
A significant portion of near‑term margin upside is tied to Financial Services scaling (targeting EBITDA breakeven in H2 2026). This makes margin delivery dependent on loan book growth, credit performance and banks' execution.
GrabMart Still a Small Share of Deliveries GMV
Despite strong growth (1.7x food growth; +30% users YoY), GrabMart only represents ~10% of Deliveries GMV today, highlighting scale and monetization work still required to make it a major profit contributor.
Regulatory and Driver Welfare Risk in Key Market (Indonesia)
Speculation around Indonesia ride‑hailing regulation and driver welfare initiatives introduces execution risk and potential cost pressure, even though management confirmed no commission cap changes and expects scale to offset welfare costs.
Capital Intensity and Long‑Horizon Bets (AVs, Robotics)
Investments in autonomous vehicles and robotics are strategic but capital intensive and exposed to regulatory timelines; commercialization beyond pilot geographies will depend on regulatory frameworks and large upfront investments.
Geographic/Strategic Execution Risk from Stash Acquisition
Acquiring a U.S. investing platform extends management beyond core Southeast Asia markets; while presented as strategic and accretive, cross‑market integration and execution pose inorganic risk.
Reliance on AI and Platform Partners
Heavy reliance on internal AI models and external partnerships (e.g., OpenAI) to drive discovery, underwriting and operations introduces technology, privacy and partner‑dependency risks that could affect scalability or costs.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 group revenue to grow 20–22% to $4.04–$4.10 billion and adjusted EBITDA to rise 40–44% to $700–$720 million, and outlined a 2025–2028 roadmap targeting a 20% revenue CAGR, adjusted EBITDA tripling to $1.5 billion by 2028, and adjusted free cash flow conversion expanding from 58% in 2025 to 80% (generating >$1.2 billion in adjusted FCF by 2028). They pointed to 2025 momentum underpinning the guide: On‑Demand GMV +21% YoY (transactions +24%), Q4 revenue $906M (+19% YoY; +17% cc), Q4 adjusted EBITDA $148M and full‑year adjusted EBITDA $500M (+60% YoY), adjusted FCF $76M in Q4 and $290M for FY2025, first full year of net profit, MTUs >50M (MTUs +15% YoY) and ATUs 129M (37% MTU/ATU penetration). Financial Services hit a $1.3B gross loan portfolio (net $1.2B) with a >$2B gross loan book goal by end‑2026 and FS breakeven expected H2 2026; Deliveries merchants +9% YoY with merchant earnings +11%; GrabMart users +30% YoY (GrabMart ≈10% of Deliveries GMV); >90% of Mobility rides AI‑dispatched; >97% of merchant listings available in English/Chinese; and management announced a new $500M share buyback (bringing total committed repurchases to $1B) and the Stash acquisition (targeting >$60M adjusted EBITDA by 2028).

Grab Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Turnaround to profitability in 2025 with positive EBIT/EBITDA and solid gross margin (~43%) supports the score, but slowing revenue growth, higher debt versus 2024, and weaker/less consistent cash-flow conversion (FCF down YoY; OCF much lower) keep it from rating higher.
Income Statement
71
Positive
Profitability has improved materially: the company moved from losses in 2021–2024 to positive net income in 2025, with positive EBIT and EBITDA and a solid gross margin (~43%). Revenue is growing, but the growth rate slowed sharply versus earlier years, suggesting a maturing growth profile. Overall, strong margin recovery is the key positive, while the decelerating top-line trajectory is the main watch item.
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
The balance sheet is supported by a sizable equity base and moderate leverage in 2025 (debt at ~0.31x equity). Total debt increased meaningfully versus 2024, which reduces flexibility and raises execution risk if profitability softens. Returns on equity are now positive but still low, indicating the business is only starting to translate scale into attractive shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
Cash generation is positive in 2025 (operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive), but free cash flow declined meaningfully year over year and operating cash flow is much lower than the prior year. Free cash flow covers only a modest portion of net income, implying earnings quality and/or working-capital/cash-conversion volatility remains a concern. Earlier years show large swings including negative cash flow, reinforcing the variability.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.37B2.80B2.36B1.43B675.00M
Gross Profit1.46B1.17B860.00M77.00M-395.00M
EBITDA379.00M93.00M-222.00M-1.42B-1.51B
Net Income268.00M-105.00M-434.00M-1.68B-3.45B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.98B9.29B8.79B9.17B11.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.80B5.63B5.04B5.09B8.08B
Total Debt2.05B364.00M793.00M1.36B2.17B
Total Liabilities5.23B2.94B2.32B2.51B3.16B
Stockholders Equity6.73B6.40B6.45B6.60B7.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow134.00M775.00M15.00M-856.00M-1.03B
Operating Cash Flow231.00M852.00M86.00M-798.00M-954.00M
Investing Cash Flow-964.00M-231.00M1.87B-1.06B-2.76B
Financing Cash Flow1.13B-771.00M-770.00M-1.12B6.57B

Grab Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.18
Price Trends
50DMA
4.68
Negative
100DMA
5.18
Negative
200DMA
5.16
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Negative
RSI
40.17
Neutral
STOCH
62.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRAB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.34, below the 50-day MA of 4.68, and below the 200-day MA of 5.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRAB.

Grab Risk Analysis

Grab disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grab reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Our growing use of artificial intelligence and machine learning may present additional risks, including risks associated with algorithm development or use, the data sets used, and/or a complex, developing regulatory environment. Q4, 2024

Grab Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$149.77B15.4541.37%18.25%277.10%
72
Outperform
$16.08B50.6418.64%25.76%
72
Outperform
$9.53B22.2810.16%18.29%
66
Neutral
$74.73B82.8910.48%24.46%
64
Neutral
$5.46B1.96140.78%14.90%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
60
Neutral
$18.18B67.384.07%20.22%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GRAB
Grab
4.18
-0.38
-8.33%
LYFT
Lyft
13.29
0.55
4.32%
UBER
Uber Technologies
70.72
-4.23
-5.64%
DASH
DoorDash
164.66
-26.61
-13.91%
TOST
Toast Inc
25.07
-11.13
-30.75%
CART
Maplebear
36.16
-12.62
-25.87%

Grab Corporate Events

Grab posts first full-year net profit and unveils $500 million buyback after record 2025
Feb 11, 2026

Grab Holdings Limited reported unaudited financial results on February 12, 2026 for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting its first full year of net profit and a record quarter in revenue and user growth. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 19% year-on-year to $906 million, On-Demand gross merchandise value climbed 21% to $6.1 billion, profit for the period surged to $153 million, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 54% to $148 million, supported by higher On-Demand usage, expanding financial services and disciplined cost management.

For full-year 2025, Grab generated $290 million in Adjusted Free Cash Flow on a trailing 12‑month basis and expanded its loan portfolio to $1.18 billion, while gross cash liquidity reached $7.4 billion and net cash liquidity $5.4 billion, underscoring a strengthened balance sheet. Management framed these results as validation of its long-term strategy, outlining a 2028 target of $1.5 billion in Adjusted EBITDA and announcing a new $500 million share repurchase program, moves that signal growing financial maturity and a greater focus on shareholder returns within the competitive Southeast Asian super app landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab Posts First Full-Year Net Profit in 2025 and Launches $500 Million Buyback
Feb 11, 2026

Grab Holdings reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 11, 2026, highlighting its first-ever full-year net profit as revenue rose 19% year-on-year in Q4 to $906 million and 20% for 2025 to $3.37 billion. On-demand GMV climbed 21% in both the quarter and the year, adjusted EBITDA jumped to $148 million in Q4 and $500 million for 2025, and adjusted free cash flow reached $290 million for the year, prompting the board to authorize a new $500 million share repurchase program, signaling growing financial strength and a shift toward sustained profitability despite lower operating cash flow tied to expansion of its lending business.

The company’s quarterly profit for the period surged to $153 million and full-year profit reached $200 million, reversing prior losses and underscoring improved operating leverage even as partner and consumer incentives increased to support demand. Grab ended 2025 with $7.4 billion in gross cash liquidity and $5.4 billion in net cash liquidity, positioning it to continue funding growth in its on-demand and financial services segments while returning capital to shareholders through buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab to Acquire U.S. Digital Investing Platform Stash in US$425 Million Deal
Feb 11, 2026

On February 12, 2026, Grab announced it had signed definitive agreements to acquire 100% of Stash Financial, Inc., a U.S. digital financial services firm with over $5 billion in assets under management and more than one million paying subscribers. The deal values Stash at an enterprise value of US$425 million, with 50.1% of the equity to be paid at closing in cash and stock and the remainder over three years at fair market value, subject to regulatory approvals and an expected closing in the third quarter of 2026.

Stash, an SEC‑regulated registered investment advisor and broker‑dealer, will remain a standalone U.S. brand providing subscription-based investing, banking and financial education tools, including its AI Money Coach feature that has materially boosted user engagement since late 2024. Grab plans to leverage Stash’s AI-driven investing technology and high-margin recurring revenues to accelerate its financial services roadmap, strengthen its fintech capabilities and potentially bring Stash’s mass-market investing solutions to Southeast Asia over the longer term, while Stash continues pursuing profitable growth in its core U.S. market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab to Acquire U.S. Digital Investing Platform Stash in US$425 Million Deal
Feb 11, 2026

Grab Holdings Limited, the Southeast Asian super-app operator, said in a Form 6-K filed on February 11, 2026, that it has signed definitive agreements to acquire 100% of U.S. digital financial services firm Stash Financial, Inc. Grab will pay for an initial 50.1% stake at closing based on an enterprise value of US$425 million, with the remaining equity to be bought over three years at fair market value, using a mix of cash and stock at its discretion.

The deal, expected to close in the third quarter of 2026 subject to regulatory and other customary approvals, is intended to accelerate Grab’s financial services roadmap and extend its capabilities in digital investing. By acquiring Stash, Grab gains a foothold in the U.S. market, where it has not previously operated commercially, but the company also flags execution risks around regulatory approvals, integration, customer retention, and potential legal proceedings linked to Stash’s prior fundraising and the transaction itself.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab Holdings Announces Board Changes with New Independent Director
Dec 1, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Grab Holdings Limited announced changes to its board of directors, with Laura Franco joining as an independent director and Ng Shin Ein retiring. Laura Franco, with her extensive legal and regulatory experience, is expected to contribute significantly to Grab’s strategic growth and innovation. These changes reflect Grab’s ongoing commitment to strengthening its leadership as it continues to expand its influence in the Southeast Asian market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Grab Announces Board of Directors Update
Dec 1, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Grab Holdings Limited announced changes to its board of directors. Laura Franco, previously an Executive Vice President and General Counsel at Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp., joined the board as an independent director, while Ng Shin Ein retired. Additionally, Steven Tishman, an existing independent director, was appointed to the Audit and Compensation Committees, and Laura Franco joined the Nominating Committee. These changes reflect Grab’s strategic focus on strengthening its governance structure as it continues to expand its operations across Southeast Asia.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRAB) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grab stock, see the GRAB Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 14, 2026