Global-e Online (GLBE) AI Stock Analysis

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Global-e Online

(NASDAQ:GLBE)

65Neutral

Global-e Online's strong revenue growth and cash flow resilience are significant positives, supporting a promising outlook despite profitability challenges. The bearish technical indicators and high valuation concerns slightly dampen the overall score. The positive earnings call guidance and strategic expansions provide additional optimism for future performance.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Global-e's 1Q25 web traffic looks significantly better than financial estimates, indicating potential positive performance.

Market Position

Global-e is the long-term share gainer in a $175bn eCommerce cross-border transaction opportunity.

Negative Factors

Logistics Challenges

The suspension of higher value goods shipping to the U.S. through DHL increases near-term execution risks.

Tariff Policies

Tariff policies and the suspension of DHL's global B2C shipments to the United States are expected to lower estimates for GLBE.

Global-e Online (GLBE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.37B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.25M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.91

Revenue Growth32.08%

EPS Growth44.46%

CountryUS

Employees1,084

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength57

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.45

Shares Outstanding169,435,300

10 Day Avg. Volume2,649,152

30 Day Avg. Volume2,245,830

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)11.03

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$52.33

Price Target Upside58.86% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering12

Global-e Online Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlobal-E Online Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides a platform to enable and accelerate direct-to-consumer cross-border e-commerce in Israel, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. Its platform enables international shoppers to buy online and merchants to sell from, and to, worldwide. Global-E Online Ltd. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Petah Tikva, Israel.

How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal-e Online generates revenue primarily through a combination of service fees and transaction-based fees. The company charges merchants a service fee for access to its platform's capabilities, which include localization features, payment processing, and logistics solutions. Additionally, Global-e earns a percentage of each transaction processed through its platform, aligning its growth with that of its clients. Strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms and logistics providers further bolster its revenue, enabling seamless integration and expanded service offerings for its clients. The company's ability to enhance conversion rates and customer satisfaction for international shoppers contributes significantly to its financial success.

Global-e Online Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Global-e Online shows strong revenue growth and improving margins, though profitability remains a challenge. A solid balance sheet supports stability with minimal leverage. Robust cash flow performance offsets net losses, suggesting the company is well-positioned for future growth if profitability improves.

Income Statement

Positive

Global-e Online has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a 32.1% increase from 2023 to 2024, signaling strong demand and business expansion. Gross profit margin improved to 45.1%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company remains unprofitable with a negative net profit margin of -10.0%. Despite EBITDA turning positive, EBIT remains negative, pointing to ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 70.7%, reflecting financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, suggesting limited leverage use. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, highlighting profitability concerns despite a strong capital structure.

Cash Flow

Positive

Impressive free cash flow growth of 57.0% indicates effective cash management and operational efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at -2.24, demonstrating robust cash generation relative to accounting losses. Free cash flow covers net income, emphasizing cash flow resilience despite net losses.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
752.76M	569.95M	409.05M	245.27M	136.38M
	Gross Profit
339.43M	233.60M	158.18M	91.43M	43.47M
	EBIT
-67.93M	-137.06M	-189.32M	-65.66M	8.41M
	EBITDA
101.61M	47.77M	-159.91M	-65.33M	8.65M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-75.55M	-133.81M	-195.41M	-74.93M	3.91M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
474.44M	317.42M	228.20M	509.07M	91.97M
	Total Assets
1.26B	1.20B	1.16B	846.13M	347.31M
	Total Debt
24.86M	23.32M	19.82M	21.32M	4.43M
	Net Debt
-225.92M	-176.76M	-145.21M	-427.30M	-64.21M
	Total Liabilities
370.05M	300.38M	234.48M	150.38M	205.81M
	Stockholders Equity
893.43M	901.98M	928.12M	695.75M	141.50M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
167.06M	106.48M	73.13M	12.87M	28.89M
	Operating Cash Flow
169.39M	108.22M	81.48M	15.75M	29.35M
	Investing Cash Flow
-108.96M	-55.04M	-330.10M	-40.49M	-24.05M
	Financing Cash Flow
3.28M	1.99M	1.24M	398.61M	59.36M

Global-e Online Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price32.94

Price Trends

50DMA

40.36

Negative

100DMA

47.93

Negative

200DMA

42.39

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-2.13

Negative

RSI

43.07

Neutral

STOCH

44.59

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLBE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.80, below the 50-day MA of 40.36, and below the 200-day MA of 42.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GLBE.

Global-e Online Risk Analysis

Global-e Online disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global-e Online reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Global-e Online Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CHWY	76 Outperform	$14.90B	40.05	101.78%	―	6.40%	891.13%
EBAY	73 Outperform	$31.25B	17.01	34.29%	1.64%	2.79%	-23.30%
GLBE	65 Neutral	$5.37B	―	-8.42%	―	32.08%	44.46%
ETSY	60 Neutral	$4.92B	19.37	-39.97%	―	2.18%	5.77%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.56B	11.42	3.23%	4.27%	2.37%	-21.19%
CPNG	57 Neutral	$38.15B	254.89	3.76%	―	24.14%	-88.77%
W	35 Underperform	$3.48B	―	17.86%	―	-1.27%	38.07%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GLBE

Global-e Online

34.76

1.23

3.67%

EBAY

eBay

66.63

16.39

32.62%

Wayfair

27.44

-25.48

-48.15%

ETSY

Etsy

45.93

-20.94

-31.31%

CHWY

Chewy

36.02

20.93

138.70%

CPNG

Coupang

21.68

-1.12

-4.91%

Global-e Online Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -46.79% | Next Earnings Date: May 26, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial growth, profitability milestones, and strategic expansions. However, challenges such as the impact of the Ted Baker bankruptcy and tariff-related pressures were also noted. Despite these challenges, the company's strong cash flow, profitability, and strategic expansions contribute to an overall positive outlook.

Highlights

Record-Breaking Year for Global-E

Global-E reported a record $1.71 billion in GMV for Q4 2024, up 44% year-on-year, with record revenues of $263 million, up 42% year-on-year. The full year GMV was close to $4.86 billion and revenues were almost $753 million, more than six times the GMV and five and a half times the revenue from 2020.

Achievement of Profitability Milestones

For the first time, Global-E achieved a quarterly Adjusted EBITDA margin above 20% at 21.7% and reached GAAP profitability in Q4 2024. 2025 is expected to be GAAP profitable for the full year, with an anticipated Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%.

Strong Cash Flow and Financial Position

Global-E generated nearly $130 million in operational cash flows in Q4 2024 and reported a cash and cash equivalents balance of nearly $474 million by the year's end.

Expansion of Global Footprint and Market Offerings

The company expanded its market presence from 9 outbound markets in 2020 to 39 in 2024, and added new verticals including consumer electronics with notable clients like Logitech.

Lowlights

Impact of Ted Baker Bankruptcy

Ted Baker's bankruptcy negatively impacted Global-E's 2024 NDR and GDR rates and contributed to a decrease in the service fee revenue growth rate.

Tariff Challenges

Rising cross-border tariffs imposed by the U.S. and trading partners are expected to lower take rates in 2025 as merchants shift to multi-local strategies.

Potential Impact of De Minimis Exemption Changes

The potential suspension of the U.S. de minimis exemption for duty-free goods could increase costs for merchants and affect consumer demand, although it may also drive more merchants to Global-E's platform.

Company Guidance

During the Global-E earnings call, the company reported record-breaking financial results for the fiscal year 2024, driven by a strong fourth quarter. The guidance provided for 2025 anticipates continued growth with GMV expected to range between $6.19 billion and $6.49 billion, representing over 31% growth at the midpoint. Revenues are projected to be between $917 million and $967 million, marking a 25% increase at the midpoint, although a lower take rate is anticipated due to the adoption of multi-local strategies by merchants in response to rising tariffs. The company also expects to achieve GAAP profitability for the first time in 2025, with Adjusted EBITDA anticipated to grow by over 34% to a range between $179 million and $199 million, achieving the long-term target of a 20% Adjusted EBITDA margin. This growth is attributed to new merchant acquisitions, robust consumer demand, and the strategic expansion into new verticals and markets.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.