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Distribution Solutions Group (DSGR)
NASDAQ:DSGR
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Distribution Solutions Group (DSGR) AI Stock Analysis

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DSGR

Distribution Solutions Group

(NASDAQ:DSGR)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(4.32% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/17/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial fundamentals—strong top-line growth and positive cash flow, but very low profitability, leverage, and volatile earnings/cash conversion. Technicals are strong with price far above major moving averages, though momentum looks extended with an overbought RSI. Valuation is a meaningful drag due to the extremely high P/E and lack of dividend support, partially offset by the take-private deal providing a favorable near-term catalyst and pricing reference.
Positive Factors
Revenue scale & growth
Sizable revenue base (~$2.0B TTM) with strong growth supports durable distribution economics: better supplier terms, branch network leverage, and fixed-cost absorption. This scale underpins recurring contract wins and resilience across industrial end markets over a multi-month horizon.
Negative Factors
Very thin net profitability
Extremely low net margins leave minimal buffer against cost inflation, pricing pressure, or demand softness. With earnings near breakeven and recent losses, small adverse swings in gross margin, freight, or SG&A can quickly erase profits and constrain reinvestment and debt reduction over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue scale & growth
Sizable revenue base (~$2.0B TTM) with strong growth supports durable distribution economics: better supplier terms, branch network leverage, and fixed-cost absorption. This scale underpins recurring contract wins and resilience across industrial end markets over a multi-month horizon.
Read all positive factors

Distribution Solutions Group (DSGR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Distribution Solutions Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Lawson Products, Inc. specializes in supplying distinctive products to a diverse clientele spanning industrial, commercial, institutional, and governmental sectors, specifically catering to their maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) requireme...
How the Company Makes Money
DSGR primarily makes money by distributing products to business customers and earning a gross margin (the spread between its purchase cost from manufacturers/suppliers and its selling price to customers). Key revenue streams generally include: (1)...

Distribution Solutions Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong top-line growth (FY revenue +9.8%), robust cash generation, improving capabilities at high-margin businesses (notably Gexpro Services), and deliberate investments in leadership, digital tools, and M&A that position the company for longer-term improvement. Offsetting these positives were meaningful margin compression, a decline in non-GAAP EPS, several one-time and timing-related cost pressures in Q4 (healthcare, bad debt, recruiting/onboarding), operational challenges in Lawson’s small-account base and Canada integration, and near-term margin headwinds expected in Q1 2026. Management emphasizes a multi-quarter recovery path driven by execution and reinvestment, so the narrative is constructive on strategy but cautious on short-term profitability.
Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $1,980,000,000 for FY2025, up 9.8% year-over-year, driven by organic average daily sales growth of 3.6% and $121.5M incremental revenue from 2024 acquisitions.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Compression
Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $175.2M or 8.9% of sales, down 80 basis points from 9.7% in 2024; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $35.4M or 7.4% of sales, reflecting near-term margin pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Negative
Record Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $1,980,000,000 for FY2025, up 9.8% year-over-year, driven by organic average daily sales growth of 3.6% and $121.5M incremental revenue from 2024 acquisitions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to continued near-term margin pressure in Q1 2026 but a recovery and margin expansion through the middle of the year, noting January–February ADS were up low single digits year‑over‑year (flat vs Q4) with Q1 selling days unchanged at 63; management expects Q2 and Q3 margins to run above the 2025 adjusted‑EBITDA average of 8.9% (recall 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $175.2M or 8.9% of $1,980.0M revenue and Q4 EBITDA was $35.4M or 7.4%). Financial liquidity and capital plans support the plan: $469.0M total available liquidity, $75.3M cash, net debt leverage ~3.5x, an expanded credit facility with $700M term debt and a $400M revolver, 2025 cash from operations of $84.0M, free‑cash‑flow conversion ~85%, planned 2026 CapEx of $25–30M, and an active M&A/tuck‑in pipeline plus ~$30M remaining on a $67.5M share‑repurchase authorization.

Distribution Solutions Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue scale and growth with improved gross margin, but overall quality is capped by very thin net margins (~0.4%), recent net losses (2023–2024), low ROE (~1%+), and elevated leverage (~1.3x debt-to-equity). Cash flow is positive (TTM OCF ~$68M; FCF ~$33M) but has been inconsistent and lower versus the prior annual period.
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.00B1.98B1.80B1.57B1.15B520.29M
Gross Profit649.75M662.04M613.77M555.46M390.90M130.28M
EBITDA148.59M155.64M128.99M143.75M82.42M30.68M
Net Income5.47M8.35M-7.33M-8.97M7.41M-5.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.79B1.75B1.73B1.55B1.22B491.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments52.73M61.75M66.48M83.93M24.55M14.67M
Total Debt849.41M819.11M831.09M649.05M471.93M248.31M
Total Liabilities1.14B1.10B1.09B888.73M652.62M325.59M
Stockholders Equity648.11M649.35M640.54M661.60M563.00M165.77M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow32.90M43.35M33.26M77.61M-31.13M-3.46M
Operating Cash Flow68.25M83.85M56.45M102.29M-11.03M10.32M
Investing Cash Flow-46.26M-29.49M-229.68M-278.52M-126.69M-41.38M
Financing Cash Flow-39.85M-64.27M159.30M250.41M148.46M34.67M

Distribution Solutions Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price34.51
Price Trends
50DMA
29.11
Positive
100DMA
27.73
Positive
200DMA
28.13
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.94
Negative
RSI
83.78
Negative
STOCH
95.84
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DSGR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.62, above the 50-day MA of 29.11, and above the 200-day MA of 28.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 83.78 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.84 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DSGR.

Distribution Solutions Group Risk Analysis

Distribution Solutions Group disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Distribution Solutions Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Distribution Solutions Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$12.56B32.1721.64%0.56%7.54%6.04%
73
Outperform
$1.35B18.5223.95%3.08%7.23%19.38%
72
Outperform
$6.78B29.8116.55%2.77%4.41%16.62%
67
Neutral
$2.40B27.9417.90%10.48%11.27%
66
Neutral
$16.69B23.5614.07%0.57%12.51%13.23%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
60
Neutral
$1.60B292.220.84%7.07%361.18%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DSGR
Distribution Solutions Group
34.57
5.65
19.54%
AIT
Applied Industrial Technologies
345.21
82.86
31.59%
DXPE
DXP Enterprises
157.02
47.00
42.72%
MSM
MSC Industrial
123.40
41.31
50.33%
GIC
Global Industrial Company
35.74
3.69
11.52%
WCC
Wesco International
343.49
141.44
70.00%

Distribution Solutions Group Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Distribution Solutions Group to Be Taken Private
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
On July 15, 2026, Distribution Solutions Group agreed to be acquired and taken private by newly formed entities controlled by LKCM Headwater Investments, which already own about 79% of the company. The deal will see minority shareholders receive $...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Distribution Solutions Group Stockholders Endorse 2026 Governance Proposals
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with 92.7% of eligible shares represented in person or by proxy. Stockholders elected seven directors to the board with strong majorities, reflecting...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 17, 2026