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Corpay Inc (CPAY)
NYSE:CPAY
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Corpay Inc (CPAY) AI Stock Analysis

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CPAY

Corpay Inc

(NYSE:CPAY)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$376.00
▲(11.95%Upside)
Corpay Inc's overall stock score of 75 reflects strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives. While technical indicators suggest a neutral outlook, valuation metrics show moderate attractiveness. Positive earnings call sentiment and ongoing strategic initiatives enhance the score, despite challenges like increasing debt and segment-specific issues.
Positive Factors
Acquisition and Strategy
The acquisition of Alpha Group is viewed as a net positive and consistent with CPAY’s strategy to expand its cross-border payments business, adding capabilities and clients.
Market Position and Growth
CPAY appears well-positioned as a leader in select B2B payment verticals to benefit from broader B2B payment and vertical-specific tailwinds.
Revenue and Earnings
The transaction will help CPAY reach its goal of generating over $2B in corporate payments revenue, representing more than 40% of the overall company revenue.
Negative Factors
Execution Risk
US payments growth remains back-half loaded, which adds some execution risk.
Investment Uncertainty
If CPAY passes on acquiring the rest of the equity, and TPG sells within 15 months after the 33-month window closes, a return of ~1.6x invested capital is guaranteed.

Corpay Inc (CPAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Corpay Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCorpay Inc (CPAY) is a financial technology company that specializes in providing integrated payment solutions and expense management services. Operating within the fintech sector, Corpay offers a suite of products designed to streamline payment processes, enhance cash flow management, and optimize expense reporting for businesses of all sizes. The company focuses on delivering efficient and secure financial services that cater to the needs of businesses seeking to improve their financial operations.
How the Company Makes MoneyCorpay Inc generates revenue primarily through transaction fees and subscription models associated with its payment and expense management solutions. The company's key revenue streams include fees charged for processing payments, which may involve domestic and international transactions, as well as subscription fees for access to its financial management platforms. Additionally, Corpay may engage in partnerships with banks and financial institutions to expand its service offerings, which can enhance its revenue through collaborative arrangements and increased customer acquisition. The company's focus on technological innovation and customer-centric services plays a significant role in its ability to attract and retain clients, thereby contributing to its earnings.

Corpay Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.94%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strong revenue growth, successful M&A activities, and positive sales and retention metrics highlighted. However, challenges in the US vehicle payments segment, a fuel spread revenue shortfall, and potential tariff impacts were noted as concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Reported Q1 2025 revenue of $1.6 billion, up 8% year-over-year. Organic revenue growth was 9%, with vehicle payments growing 8% and corporate payments growing 19%.
Successful M&A Activities
Announced a strategic partnership with Mastercard, valuing the Cross-Border unit at over $10 billion, and a $500 million minority investment in Avid to enhance B2B invoice automation.
Positive Sales and Retention Metrics
Sales or new bookings were up 35% compared to Q1 last year. Retention rate stayed steady at 92%.
Promising Cross-Border Business
Cross-border sales grew 51% year-over-year, with revenue increasing 18% organically.
Negative Updates
Challenges in US Vehicle Payments
US vehicle payments revenue decreased by 3% organically, though improvements in application approvals and retention are noted.
Fuel Spread Revenue Shortfall
Encountered a $6 million unfavorable fuel spread revenue shortfall due to low volatility in fuel prices.
Tariff Impact Concerns
Approximately $10 million to $15 million potential unfavorable impact on cross-border revenue due to tariffs.
Company Guidance
During Corpay's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided several key financial metrics and guidance for the year. Corpay reported first-quarter revenue of $1.6 billion, an 8% increase from the previous year, and cash EPS of $451 million, which rose by 10%. Organic revenue growth was reported at 9%, with vehicle payments contributing an 8% increase and corporate payments seeing a 19% rise. Despite an uncertain macroeconomic environment, the company maintained its full-year 2025 guidance at a revenue range of $4 billion to $4.2 billion and cash EPS of $21. Corpay expects full-year organic revenue growth to reach 11%, supported by recent acquisitions, including Gringo in Brazil, and strategic partnerships like the one with Mastercard for cross-border services. The company is also considering divesting non-core businesses to generate up to $2 billion in liquidity. With a strong start to the year and several strategic initiatives underway, Corpay remains focused on expanding its corporate payments segment and achieving its 2025 top priorities.

Corpay Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Corpay Inc demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue and profit growth. The company maintains a robust EBIT and EBITDA margin. However, increasing debt levels and a decline in free cash flow growth pose potential risks.
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Corpay Inc demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue and profit growth. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin stands impressively high, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin also shows a solid position, indicating profitability. The company maintains a robust EBIT and EBITDA margin, showcasing operational efficiency. Continued revenue growth, although slowing slightly, remains positive.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Corpay Inc's balance sheet indicates a stable financial structure with a healthy equity ratio, suggesting a strong asset base. The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating manageable leverage. Return on Equity is robust, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the increase in total debt warrants attention to ensure long-term sustainability.
Cash Flow
76
Positive
The cash flow analysis of Corpay Inc shows a strong operating cash flow, supporting its profitability. However, the free cash flow has decreased in the most recent period, highlighting an area for improvement. The company maintains a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating effective conversion of income into cash. The slight reduction in free cash flow growth rate poses a potential risk if not addressed.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.97B3.76B3.43B2.83B2.39B
Gross Profit3.11B2.94B2.66B2.27B1.79B
EBITDA2.12B2.01B1.76B1.53B1.27B
Net Income1.00B981.89M954.33M839.50M704.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets17.96B15.48B14.09B13.40B11.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.55B1.41B1.44B1.52B934.90M
Total Debt8.00B6.72B7.04B5.98B4.30B
Total Liabilities14.81B12.19B11.55B10.54B7.84B
Stockholders Equity3.12B3.28B2.54B2.87B3.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.77B1.95B603.37M1.09B1.39B
Operating Cash Flow1.94B2.10B754.80M1.20B1.47B
Investing Cash Flow-807.48M-380.72M-368.35M-715.93M-106.25M
Financing Cash Flow404.99M-898.21M-311.23M343.93M-1.42B

Corpay Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price335.87
Price Trends
50DMA
332.70
Positive
100DMA
331.14
Positive
200DMA
345.51
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.22
Negative
RSI
52.72
Neutral
STOCH
71.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 335.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 332.41, above the 50-day MA of 332.70, and below the 200-day MA of 345.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CPAY.

Corpay Inc Risk Analysis

Corpay Inc disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Corpay Inc reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Corpay Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$9.35B36.1230.28%27.39%115.40%
78
Outperform
$4.49B15.3325.00%7.73%19.76%
75
Outperform
$5.96B22.1922.19%-1.62%36.57%
75
Outperform
$23.68B23.5630.33%6.68%6.08%
75
Outperform
$49.06B19.6412.93%4.60%425.38%
71
Outperform
$2.46B22.7815.97%14.86%-0.94%
68
Neutral
¥232.71B14.907.50%2.60%9.27%5.76%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CPAY
Corpay Inc
335.87
42.28
14.40%
EEFT
Euronet Worldwide
103.78
3.49
3.48%
WEX
WEX
175.62
-11.01
-5.90%
XYZ
Block
80.74
20.00
32.93%
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
106.81
37.45
53.99%
PAYO
Payoneer
6.81
1.35
24.73%

Corpay Inc Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Corpay Inc Announces Acquisition of Alpha Group
Positive
Jul 23, 2025

On July 23, 2025, Corpay, Inc. announced its intention to acquire Alpha Group International plc, a leading provider of B2B cross-border FX solutions in the UK and Europe, for approximately £1.6 billion. The acquisition, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, will be executed through a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement and is anticipated to enhance Corpay’s relationships with investment managers and expand its customer segments. The transaction is expected to be accretive to Corpay’s earnings per share by 2026 and will be financed through a combination of cash, debt, and other financial strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (CPAY) stock is a Buy with a $353.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Corpay Inc stock, see the CPAY Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Corpay Inc Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 16, 2025

On June 11, 2025, Corpay Inc held its Annual Meeting where shareholders voted on several key matters. The election of eleven directors saw varying levels of support, with Jeffrey S. Sloan receiving the highest number of votes in favor. Additionally, Ernst & Young LLP was reappointed as the independent public accounting firm for 2025. A shareholder proposal for an independent Board chair was rejected, and the advisory vote on executive compensation showed a divided opinion among shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CPAY) stock is a Buy with a $330.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Corpay Inc stock, see the CPAY Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Corpay Inc Appoints Peter Walker as New CFO
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Corpay, Inc. announced the appointment of Peter Walker as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 21, 2025. Peter Walker, who previously served as CFO at Instructure Holdings, brings a wealth of experience from various financial leadership roles. His appointment is expected to enhance Corpay’s business operations and strategic financial management. Interim CFO Alissa Vickery will return to her role as Chief Accounting Officer following Walker’s appointment.

The most recent analyst rating on (CPAY) stock is a Buy with a $330.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Corpay Inc stock, see the CPAY Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Corpay Inc Announces Strategic Partnerships and Acquisition Plans
Positive
May 6, 2025

Corpay Inc. reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showing a solid performance with revenues exceeding $1 billion and a 9% organic revenue growth. The company announced strategic partnerships with Mastercard and plans to invest $500 million to acquire AvidXchange, which could enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 23, 2025