Vita Coco Company (COCO)
NASDAQ:COCO
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Vita Coco Company
(NASDAQ:COCO)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$52.00
▲(7.79% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (low leverage, improving profitability, solid growth) and supportive 2026 guidance, partially offset by weaker near-term technicals and a high P/E valuation. Cash flow variability and margin/cost pressures (including private-label lumpiness) remain the main execution risks.
Positive Factors
Consistent revenue growth and improving profitability
Multi-year revenue expansion and a material rebound in net margin to ~11.7% indicate durable brand demand and improved operating leverage. Sustained top-line growth plus higher profitability support recurring cash earnings, reinvestment in growth and resilience to near-term volatility.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash flow and cooled free cash flow
Material swings in operating and free cash flow diminish predictability for capital allocation. Historic volatility and recent FCF cooling constrain the company's ability to consistently fund growth initiatives, manage inventory cycles, and absorb promotional or cost shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent revenue growth and improving profitability
Multi-year revenue expansion and a material rebound in net margin to ~11.7% indicate durable brand demand and improved operating leverage. Sustained top-line growth plus higher profitability support recurring cash earnings, reinvestment in growth and resilience to near-term volatility.
Read all positive factors
Vita Coco Company (COCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.75B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.3
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth23.12%
EPS Growth16.20%
CountryUS
Employees319
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding57,082,172
10 Day Avg. Volume2,235,804
30 Day Avg. Volume1,652,653
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.61
Price to Book (P/B)9.10
Price to Sales (P/S)4.95
P/FCF Ratio77.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda29.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$63.00Price Target Upside30.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$694.90M
Vita Coco Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes coconut water products under the Vita Coco brand name in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers coconut oil and coconut milk; Hydr...
How the Company Makes Money
Vita Coco primarily makes money by selling branded beverages—most notably Vita Coco coconut water—to customers in the consumer retail supply chain, with revenue recognized from product sales shipped under wholesale/distribution arrangements. Key r...
Vita Coco Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Geography
Shows revenue distribution across different regions, highlighting areas of strong performance and potential growth or risk due to regional market dynamics.
Shows revenue distribution across different regions, highlighting areas of strong performance and potential growth or risk due to regional market dynamics.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVita Coco Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strong, record fiscal 2025 with broad brand and international momentum—net sales +18%, robust branded coconut water growth, improved retail distribution, a healthy balance sheet, and constructive 2026 guidance. Key challenges include private label volatility (sharp declines in 2025 with recovery timing uncertain), gross margin pressure from tariffs and cost inflation (down ~200 bps), Q4 shipment-driven revenue inflation (~$7M) and planned promotional investments that could compress pricing later in 2026. Overall, the positives (accelerating international growth, strong branded performance, solid cash position and clear actions to mitigate freight volatility and benefit from tariff relief) materially outweigh the near-term headwinds, leaving a constructive outlook but with operational risks to monitor.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
Net sales increased $94.0M (+18% YoY) to $610.0M in FY2025. Net income rose to $71.0M ($1.19 diluted EPS), up 27% from $56.0M ($0.94) in FY2024. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $98.0M (16% of net sales) from $84.0M, driven by higher gross profit.
Negative Updates
Private Label Declines and Lumpy Performance
Consolidated private label net sales decreased 19% YoY. In the Americas private label fell 30% to $63.0M (volume -26%, price/mix -5%) due to loss of regions at key retailers. Management describes private label as 'lumpy' and timing/phasing of regained business is uncertain (expected to improve after Q1).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
Net sales increased $94.0M (+18% YoY) to $610.0M in FY2025. Net income rose to $71.0M ($1.19 diluted EPS), up 27% from $56.0M ($0.94) in FY2024. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $98.0M (16% of net sales) from $84.0M, driven by higher gross profit.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vita Coco guided to 2026 net sales of $680–700M, gross margins of ~38% and adjusted EBITDA of $122–128M; management expects consolidated Vita Coco Coconut Water growth of low‑ to mid‑teens, the U.S. coconut water category to grow mid‑teens, and U.S. private‑label net sales to grow 20–25% (with private‑label recovery beginning after Q1). They plan to retain most 2025 pricing (full‑year branded price increases of low single digits), invest incrementally in marketing/promotions, and expect SG&A to increase mid‑ to high‑single digits as a percent of sales while still delivering about one point of SG&A leverage versus 2025; key tailwinds cited are tariff removal and lower ocean freight (partially offset by inflation, weaker USD and higher domestic logistics). For context, 2025 results were $610M net sales, $223M gross profit (37% margin), $98M adjusted EBITDA (16% of sales), $71M net income ($1.19/diluted), and ~$197M cash on hand.Vita Coco Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 609.78M | 516.01M | 493.61M | 427.79M | 379.51M |
| Gross Profit | 222.59M | 198.78M | 180.07M | 103.36M | 113.15M |
| EBITDA | 83.74M | 71.53M | 58.61M | 12.29M | 26.66M |
| Net Income | 71.32M | 55.95M | 46.63M | 7.81M | 19.02M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 461.16M | 362.38M | 285.68M | 200.36M | 197.48M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 196.87M | 164.67M | 132.54M | 19.63M | 28.69M |
| Total Debt | 13.09M | 435.00K | 1.22M | 2.83M | 76.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 129.62M | 103.56M | 83.25M | 59.27M | 74.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 331.54M | 258.82M | 202.44M | 141.09M | 123.17M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 39.02M | 41.92M | 106.56M | -11.92M | -16.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 47.17M | 42.90M | 107.16M | -10.94M | -16.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.25M | -974.00K | -594.00K | -982.00K | -557.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.53M | -8.30M | 6.29M | 3.03M | -26.80M |
Vita Coco Company Technical Analysis
Negative
48.24
Price Trends
54.52
Negative
53.08
Negative
45.61
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.92
Positive
38.74
Neutral
26.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.46, below the 50-day MA of 54.52, and above the 200-day MA of 45.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COCO.
Vita Coco Company Risk Analysis
Vita Coco Company disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vita Coco Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vita Coco Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.75B | 42.30 | 23.19% | ― | 23.12% | 16.20% | |
69 Neutral | $3.16B | 19.35 | 35.99% | ― | 0.97% | 0.36% | |
68 Neutral | $12.96B | 19.79 | 56.69% | 0.61% | 4.22% | 22.24% | |
66 Neutral | $5.21B | 15.03 | 16.56% | 3.98% | -2.81% | -2.66% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
47 Neutral | $320.68M | -2.13 | -241.39% | ― | 3.37% | 46.17% | |
46 Neutral | $90.12M | -28.32 | -19.06% | ― | 6.17% | 41.09% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
COCO
Vita Coco Company
48.24
20.30
72.66%
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FIZZ
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OTLY
Oatly Group
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15.26%
ZVIA
Zevia PBC
1.20
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-42.31%
Vita Coco Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Vita Coco Expands Board and Names New Commercial Chief
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
On January 7, 2026, The Vita Coco Company’s board expanded from nine to ten members and appointed veteran retail and consumer brands executive Shelley Broader as a Class II director, with her term running until the next annual shareholders&#...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.