Vita Coco Company (COCO) AI Stock Analysis

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Vita Coco Company

(NASDAQ:COCO)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:

$56.00

▲(3.78% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (low leverage, improving profitability, solid growth) and supportive 2026 guidance, partially offset by weaker near-term technicals and a high P/E valuation. Cash flow variability and margin/cost pressures (including private-label lumpiness) remain the main execution risks.

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance Sheet

Very low leverage and meaningful equity growth (equity ~$332M in 2025) give the company durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing risk, supports investment in distribution/marketing, and provides a buffer against commodity or logistics shocks for multiple quarters.

Sustained Revenue & Profit Improvement

Multi-year top-line expansion and a material rebound in profitability demonstrate brand traction and operating leverage. Consistent revenue growth plus higher net margin supports predictable earnings power and capacity to fund marketing and international expansion over the next several quarters.

International Momentum

Rapid international growth (U.K., Germany strength) diversifies revenue away from the U.S. and creates higher-margin expansion opportunities. Durable international momentum plus improved retail execution increases scale benefits and reduces single-market concentration over the coming year.

Negative Factors

Volatile Cash Flow

Cash conversion has been uneven, with FCF falling from 2023 highs and negative FCF in earlier years. This variability limits predictable internal funding for marketing, inventory builds or buybacks and increases reliance on prudent balance-sheet buffers during periods of promotional spending or working-capital swings.

Gross Margin Pressure

Declining gross margins driven by tariffs, higher input and logistics costs and a weaker USD are structural headwinds until cost relief or pricing offsets fully materialize. Planned incremental promotions and SG&A reinvestment could further compress gross-to-net economics across several quarters.

Private-Label Lumpiness & Retail Concentration

Heavy sensitivity to large retailer decisions and volatile private-label volumes creates unpredictable revenue and margin swings. Reliance on regaining lost private-label business introduces execution and timing risk that can materially affect near-term sales and planning stability.

Vita Coco Company (COCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.85B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)871.48K

Price to Earnings (P/E)43.4

Beta (1Y)0.96

Revenue Growth23.12%

EPS Growth16.20%

CountryUS

Employees319

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength42

IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.09

Shares Outstanding56,948,257

10 Day Avg. Volume1,311,653

30 Day Avg. Volume871,481

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.61

Price to Book (P/B)9.10

Price to Sales (P/S)4.95

P/FCF Ratio77.31

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01

Enterprise Value/Revenue4.74

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.98

Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.45

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$60.50

Price Target Upside12.12% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering9

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Vita Coco Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Vita Coco Company, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes coconut water products under the Vita Coco brand name in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers coconut oil and coconut milk; Hydration Drink Mix, a powdered form of flavored coconut water; sparkling water; Runa, a plant-based energy drink; purified water under the Ever & Ever brand name; and PWR LIFT, a protein-infused fitness drink. It distributes its products through club, food, drug, mass, convenience, e-commerce, and foodservice channels. In addition, the company supplies coconut water and coconut oil categories to retailers. The company was formerly known as All Market Inc. and changed its name to The Vita Coco Company, Inc. in September 2021.The Vita Coco Company, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes MoneyVita Coco generates revenue primarily through the sale of its coconut water and related beverage products. The company distributes its products through various channels, including supermarkets, convenience stores, health food stores, and e-commerce platforms. Key revenue streams include direct sales to retailers and distributors, as well as partnerships with major grocery chains and food service providers. Additionally, the company benefits from brand loyalty and recognition, allowing it to maintain a premium pricing strategy. Significant partnerships with beverage distributors and collaborations with health-oriented brands further enhance its market reach and profitability.

Vita Coco Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Net Sales by Geography

Net Sales by Geography
Shows revenue distribution across different regions, highlighting areas of strong performance and potential growth or risk due to regional market dynamics.

Chart InsightsVita Coco Company is experiencing robust growth in both international and American markets, with a notable surge in international sales driven by strong performance in Europe, particularly the U.K. and Germany. Despite challenges like increased tariffs impacting costs, the company raised its full-year sales guidance, reflecting confidence in sustained growth. The recent earnings call highlighted a 37% increase in net sales, with coconut water sales up 42%, underscoring the brand's expanding market presence and strategic focus on priority markets.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Vita Coco Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call communicated a strong, record fiscal 2025 with broad brand and international momentum—net sales +18%, robust branded coconut water growth, improved retail distribution, a healthy balance sheet, and constructive 2026 guidance. Key challenges include private label volatility (sharp declines in 2025 with recovery timing uncertain), gross margin pressure from tariffs and cost inflation (down ~200 bps), Q4 shipment-driven revenue inflation (~$7M) and planned promotional investments that could compress pricing later in 2026. Overall, the positives (accelerating international growth, strong branded performance, solid cash position and clear actions to mitigate freight volatility and benefit from tariff relief) materially outweigh the near-term headwinds, leaving a constructive outlook but with operational risks to monitor.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Financial Performance

Net sales increased $94.0M (+18% YoY) to $610.0M in FY2025. Net income rose to $71.0M ($1.19 diluted EPS), up 27% from $56.0M ($0.94) in FY2024. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $98.0M (16% of net sales) from $84.0M, driven by higher gross profit.

Strong Vita Coco Coconut Water Growth

Vita Coco Coconut Water net sales grew ~26% for the full year. U.S. volume increased 19% with a ~4% net price/mix benefit. Retail-dollar growth (excluding coconut milk products) showed brand strength: U.S. +21%, U.K. +32%, and Germany >200% (per retail data cited).

International Acceleration

International net sales grew 37% YoY. International Vita Coco Coconut Water net sales increased 43% and international segment contributed ~29% of total company net sales growth in 2025, with particular momentum in the U.K. and Germany.

Improved Retail Distribution (Walmart)

A Walmart reset recovered much of prior distribution loss and improved shelf space/visibility. Management estimates the improved Walmart placement is contributing approximately 5%–6% to year-to-date brand scan trends.

Strong Balance Sheet & Cash Generation

Cash on hand of $197.0M as of 12/31/2025 with no debt drawn on the revolving credit facility. Full-year operating cash generation of $32.0M; returned capital via $11.0M of share repurchases.

2026 Growth & Profitability Guidance

Company expects FY2026 net sales of $680.0M–$700.0M, gross margin ~38%, and adjusted EBITDA of $122.0M–$128.0M. Management forecasts consolidated Vita Coco Coconut Water growth of low-to-mid teens and U.S. private label net sales growth of 20%–25% as regained/new business ramps.

Supply Chain Actions & Tariff Relief Expected to Benefit COGS

Management secured fixed-price commitments covering ~25% of expected 2026 ocean shipping to reduce volatility. A tariff exemption for most coconut water products in the U.S. is expected to lower cost of goods in 2026, and ocean freight rates softened during the quarter.

Negative Updates

Private Label Declines and Lumpy Performance

Consolidated private label net sales decreased 19% YoY. In the Americas private label fell 30% to $63.0M (volume -26%, price/mix -5%) due to loss of regions at key retailers. Management describes private label as 'lumpy' and timing/phasing of regained business is uncertain (expected to improve after Q1).

Gross Margin Compression

Consolidated gross margin declined ~200 basis points to 37% (from 39% in 2024). Gross margin was pressured by higher product costs and tariffs; $14.0M of the $16.0M tariffs paid were expensed in 2025, representing roughly a two-point gross margin impact.

End-of-Year Shipment Inflation and Inventory Build

Stronger-than-expected year-end shipments inflated Q4 net sales by approximately $7.0M and resulted in higher distributor inventory. The company invested $27.0M in inventory to support service levels and 2026 growth, increasing working capital usage.

Cost Pressures and Promotional Headwinds

Management cited elevated ocean freight during the quarter, higher finished goods costs from inflation and a weaker U.S. dollar, and increased domestic logistics costs. They intend to maintain some pricing but will invest in promotions (including incremental branded promotions in 2026), which could pressure net pricing starting in Q3.

Higher SG&A and Increased Tax Rate

SG&A increased to $140.0M driven by investments in people, marketing and supply capacity. Management expects SG&A to increase mid- to high-single digits as a percentage of net sales in 2026 (though still targeting ~1 point of SG&A leverage). Effective tax rate rose to 23% from 21% in 2024, increasing tax expense.

Concentration Risk from Major Retail Players

Private label exposure and decisions by a major club retailer remain material and unpredictable; management noted that decisions by large retail partners can be 'significant' and introduce lumpiness into results.

Company Guidance

Vita Coco guided to 2026 net sales of $680–700M, gross margins of ~38% and adjusted EBITDA of $122–128M; management expects consolidated Vita Coco Coconut Water growth of low‑ to mid‑teens, the U.S. coconut water category to grow mid‑teens, and U.S. private‑label net sales to grow 20–25% (with private‑label recovery beginning after Q1). They plan to retain most 2025 pricing (full‑year branded price increases of low single digits), invest incrementally in marketing/promotions, and expect SG&A to increase mid‑ to high‑single digits as a percent of sales while still delivering about one point of SG&A leverage versus 2025; key tailwinds cited are tariff removal and lower ocean freight (partially offset by inflation, weaker USD and higher domestic logistics). For context, 2025 results were $610M net sales, $223M gross profit (37% margin), $98M adjusted EBITDA (16% of sales), $71M net income ($1.19/diluted), and ~$197M cash on hand.

Vita Coco Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamentals overall: steady multi-year revenue growth with materially improved profitability (net margin ~11.7% in 2025) and a very conservative balance sheet (near-zero leverage, strong ROE ~21–23%). The key offset is cash flow consistency—free cash flow has cooled since 2023 and has been volatile historically—plus some recent gross margin pressure (2025 gross margin dip).

Income Statement

Very Positive

Revenue has grown consistently from $311M (2020) to $610M (2025), with solid recent growth in 2024 (+4.5%) and 2025 (+8.1%). Profitability improved materially versus 2022 (very low profit), with net margin rising to ~11.7% in 2025 and net income up to $71.3M. The main drawback is some pressure in gross margin from 2024 to 2025 (about 38.5% to 36.5%), suggesting higher input costs or pricing/mix headwinds.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is very conservatively levered, with low debt relative to equity across the period (debt-to-equity ~0.04 in 2025 and near-zero in 2024/2023). Equity has grown meaningfully (to $332M in 2025), and returns on equity are strong and consistent (~21–23% in 2023–2025), indicating healthy profitability on the capital base. A watch item is the increase in total debt in 2025 versus 2024, though leverage remains low overall.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is positive in the last three years, with operating cash flow of ~$47M in 2025 and free cash flow also ~$47M, roughly matching net income. However, cash flow has cooled from the unusually strong 2023 level (operating cash flow ~$107M), and free cash flow growth was negative in 2024 and 2025. Earlier-year volatility (negative operating and free cash flow in 2021–2022) also highlights that cash conversion can fluctuate.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	609.78M	516.01M	493.61M	427.79M	379.51M
Gross Profit	222.59M	198.78M	180.07M	103.36M	113.15M
EBITDA	83.74M	71.53M	58.61M	12.29M	26.66M
Net Income	71.32M	55.95M	46.63M	7.81M	19.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	461.16M	362.38M	285.68M	200.36M	197.48M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	196.87M	164.67M	132.54M	19.63M	28.69M
Total Debt	13.09M	435.00K	1.22M	2.83M	76.00K
Total Liabilities	129.62M	103.56M	83.25M	59.27M	74.31M
Stockholders Equity	331.54M	258.82M	202.44M	141.09M	123.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	39.02M	41.92M	106.56M	-11.92M	-16.72M
Operating Cash Flow	47.17M	42.90M	107.16M	-10.94M	-16.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.25M	-974.00K	-594.00K	-982.00K	-557.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-7.53M	-8.30M	6.29M	3.03M	-26.80M

Vita Coco Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price53.96

Price Trends

50DMA

54.32

Negative

100DMA

49.48

Positive

200DMA

42.82

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.02

Positive

RSI

48.00

Neutral

STOCH

31.71

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.42, below the 50-day MA of 54.32, and above the 200-day MA of 42.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COCO.

Vita Coco Company Risk Analysis

Vita Coco Company disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vita Coco Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vita Coco Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COCO	72 Outperform	$2.85B	43.45	24.16%	―	23.12%	16.20%
KOF	72 Outperform	$5.91B	19.66	16.18%	3.98%	-2.81%	-2.66%
FIZZ	70 Outperform	$3.45B	18.36	40.93%	―	0.97%	0.36%
COKE	68 Neutral	$14.55B	25.03	168.34%	0.61%	4.22%	22.24%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
OTLY	47 Neutral	$376.57M	―	-248.60%	―	3.37%	46.17%
ZVIA	46 Neutral	$123.76M	-7.43	-23.12%	―	6.17%	41.09%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

COCO

Vita Coco Company

53.96

16.21

42.94%

KOF

Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV

113.07

28.15

33.15%

COKE

Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated

182.22

44.19

32.01%

FIZZ

National Beverage

37.01

-3.99

-9.73%

OTLY

Oatly Group

11.76

4.48

61.47%

ZVIA

Zevia PBC

1.66

-1.64

-49.70%

Vita Coco Company Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Vita Coco Expands Board and Names New Commercial Chief

Positive

Jan 8, 2026

On January 7, 2026, The Vita Coco Company’s board expanded from nine to ten members and appointed veteran retail and consumer brands executive Shelley Broader as a Class II director, with her term running until the next annual shareholders’ meeting, adding deep global leadership and transformation experience that is expected to support the company’s growth and governance capabilities. Also effective January 1, 2026, the board named Charles van Es as Chief Commercial Officer, putting him in charge of global commercial strategy and market development while he continues to oversee the U.S. market, a move that consolidates commercial leadership as the company scales its beverage portfolio globally without changing his compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (COCO) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vita Coco Company stock, see the COCO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 19, 2026