Oatly Group (OTLY)
NASDAQ:OTLY
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Oatly Group
(NASDAQ:OTLY)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-7.86% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/12/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial durability—especially the very thin equity base and high leverage alongside ongoing losses and negative free cash flow. Technicals are also soft with the stock below key longer-term moving averages. These are partly offset by a more positive earnings-call outlook featuring margin expansion and improved adjusted EBITDA guidance, but cash flow and regional/customer headwinds keep overall risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Gross Margin Expansion
Sustained gross margin gains reflect structural improvements in supply-chain absorption, pricing and product mix rather than one-off items. Higher unit margins strengthen the company's ability to fund marketing and capex internally, improve adjusted EBITDA durability, and create more resilient operating leverage over the coming months.
Negative Factors
Weak Balance Sheet and High Leverage
An extremely thin equity base versus very high debt materially elevates refinancing and dilution risk. The constrained balance sheet reduces financial flexibility to absorb shocks, limits ability to fund strategic initiatives internally, and increases vulnerability to rising interest costs or covenant stress over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Gross Margin Expansion
Sustained gross margin gains reflect structural improvements in supply-chain absorption, pricing and product mix rather than one-off items. Higher unit margins strengthen the company's ability to fund marketing and capex internally, improve adjusted EBITDA durability, and create more resilient operating leverage over the coming months.
Read all positive factors
Oatly Group (OTLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$321.93M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)56.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth3.37%
EPS Growth46.17%
CountryUS
Employees1,468
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.61
Shares Outstanding31,225,000
10 Day Avg. Volume58,464
30 Day Avg. Volume56,987
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)17.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-8.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.75Price Target Upside43.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$908.18M
Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products made from oats in Sweden. It offers Barista edition oatmilk, oatgurts, frozen desserts, ice-creams, and yogurts; ready-to-go drinks, such as cold brew latte, mocha ...
How the Company Makes Money
Oatly makes money primarily by selling oat-based dairy-alternative products to customers in two main channels: (1) retail (e.g., grocery and e-commerce) and (2) foodservice (e.g., cafés, coffee chains, restaurants, and other out-of-home consumptio...
Oatly Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a meaningful turnaround: Oatly achieved its first full year of profitable growth, delivered improved gross margins, positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 and for the year, meaningful volume and market-share gains (notably across Europe), and substantial structural cost improvements. Management provided concrete product innovation plans and a clear growth playbook with 2026 guidance that targets modest top-line growth (3%–5% constant currency) and stronger adjusted EBITDA ($25M–$35M). Offsetting these positives, challenges remain: North America experienced a revenue decline driven by a large foodservice customer (creating a ~200 bps headwind), Greater China is under review with slight revenue declines, free cash flow is still negative (net outflow $39M) and category softness in U.S. retail persists. On balance, the highlights—profitability, margin expansion, market-share gains, and operational efficiencies—outweigh the lowlights and point to continued progress toward sustainable profitable growth, though execution risks (customer concentration, China, and retail conversion) remain.Positive Updates
First Full-Year Profitable Growth
Oatly delivered its first full year of profitable growth since IPO: full-year adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 million and management calling the company 'structurally profitable' and entering a 'profitable growth era.' 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $25M–$35M indicates expected acceleration.
Negative Updates
North America Large Customer Drag and Revenue Decline
Reported North America revenue declined 8.8% in the quarter, primarily due to sourcing changes at one large foodservice customer. Management notes this customer will create an approximate 200 bps headwind to full-year 2026 net sales growth; the customer's share of the segment has fallen to below 10% in the quarter but concentration risk remains a near-term headwind.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
First Full-Year Profitable Growth
Oatly delivered its first full year of profitable growth since IPO: full-year adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 million and management calling the company 'structurally profitable' and entering a 'profitable growth era.' 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $25M–$35M indicates expected acceleration.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Oatly guided that for 2026 it expects constant‑currency net sales growth of 3–5% (which already embeds an approximate 200 basis‑point headwind from a large North America customer and assumes current FX; management estimates FX could add ~100–200 bps to full‑year net sales), adjusted EBITDA of $25–35 million, and capex of $20–30 million; the company said it does not expect to deliver positive free cash flow for the full year 2026 but does expect free cash flow to improve versus 2025 (FY‑2025 free cash flow was a net outflow of $39 million, an improvement of $117 million year‑over‑year) and highlighted about $5 million of expected non‑cash interest savings from recent refinancing, an ongoing focus on supply‑chain efficiencies and continued brand‑building investment (particularly in H1), and that the guidance assumes no direct impact from U.S. tariffs.Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 862.46M | 823.67M | 783.35M | 722.24M | 643.19M |
| Gross Profit | 277.06M | 236.49M | 152.08M | 80.03M | 155.01M |
| EBITDA | -19.16M | -86.13M | -287.79M | -335.15M | -172.15M |
| Net Income | -152.77M | -201.95M | -416.87M | -392.57M | -212.39M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 787.20M | 803.98M | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 64.34M | 98.92M | 249.30M | 82.64M | 545.51M |
| Total Debt | 513.72M | 491.45M | 532.84M | 151.70M | 149.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 767.53M | 697.86M | 781.19M | 434.05M | 383.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.55M | 104.69M | 333.99M | 791.14M | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -36.12M | -155.62M | -234.67M | -475.11M | -495.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -23.72M | -114.43M | -165.63M | -268.95M | -213.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.54M | -9.25M | -26.70M | 34.79M | -544.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.18M | -27.29M | 355.00M | 35.92M | 955.80M |
Oatly Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.31
Price Trends
10.98
Negative
11.34
Negative
13.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Negative
48.25
Neutral
79.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.14, below the 50-day MA of 10.98, and below the 200-day MA of 13.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OTLY.
Oatly Group Risk Analysis
Oatly Group disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oatly Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oatly Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.81B | 42.30 | 23.19% | ― | 23.12% | 16.20% | |
69 Neutral | $3.91B | 14.87 | 24.24% | 4.78% | 18.92% | 34.03% | |
69 Neutral | $3.16B | 19.35 | 35.99% | ― | 0.97% | 0.36% | |
68 Neutral | $13.11B | 19.79 | 56.69% | 0.61% | 4.22% | 22.24% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
47 Neutral | $321.93M | -2.13 | -241.39% | ― | 3.37% | 46.17% | |
46 Neutral | $86.37M | -15.19 | -19.06% | ― | 6.17% | 41.09% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
OTLY
Oatly Group
10.31
1.04
11.22%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
196.88
62.01
45.98%
AKO.A
Embotelladora Andina SA
22.61
7.28
47.49%
FIZZ
National Beverage
33.80
-9.16
-21.32%
ZVIA
Zevia PBC
1.15
-1.14
-49.78%
COCO
Vita Coco Company
49.22
17.94
57.35%
Oatly Group Corporate Events
Oatly Posts Higher Revenue and Margin as It Delivers First Full Year of Profitability in 2025
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Oatly reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, marking its first full year of profitability as described by management. The company posted fourth-quarter revenue of $233.8 m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.