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Oatly Group (OTLY)
NASDAQ:OTLY
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Oatly Group
(NASDAQ:OTLY)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▼(-12.18% Downside)
Positive Factors
European Market
The company is already starting to see some of its efforts paying off, with European retail takeaway having accelerated over each of the past 12- and 4-week periods.
Financial Guidance
Guidance for positive FY25 EBITDA is the first major inflection and likely to be followed by FCF turning positive in FY26.
Market Performance
Absolute sales growth remains superior to U.S. packaged food peers, indicating strong market performance.
Negative Factors
North America Segment
Trends in the North America segment, while likely set to improve sequentially, will remain challenged until OTLY fully laps the impact of lost sales to its large North America foodservice customer.
Return on Equity
Return on Equity TTM is significantly negative at -92.07%.
Sales Growth
Following a second consecutive quarter of disappointing, flat YOY organic sales growth, OTLY revised its 2025 top-line outlook to a flat to +1% YOY range.
Oatly Group (OTLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$504.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)146.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.90
Revenue Growth4.47%
EPS Growth42.22%
CountryUS
Employees1,468
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength64
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding30,310,772
10 Day Avg. Volume150,520
30 Day Avg. Volume146,310
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-14.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.17Price Target Upside12.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products made from oats in Sweden. It offers Barista edition oatmilk, oatgurts, frozen desserts, ice-creams, and yogurts; ready-to-go drinks, such as cold brew latte, mocha latte, matcha latte, and mini oat drink in original and chocolate flavors; and cooking products, including Cooking Cream, in regular and organic, Crème Fraiche, Whipping Cream, Vanilla Custard and Spreads in a variety of flavors. The company was formerly known as Havre Global AB and changed its name to Oatly Group AB in March 2021. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyOatly Group generates revenue through the sale of its oat-based products, primarily targeting health-conscious and environmentally aware consumers. The company's key revenue streams include retail sales through supermarkets and online platforms, food service sales to cafes and restaurants, and partnerships with distributors to expand its market reach. Oatly has established significant partnerships with major retailers and food service providers to ensure widespread availability and brand presence. The company capitalizes on the growing demand for plant-based alternatives by continuously innovating its product offerings and expanding its global footprint.
Oatly Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 12.15%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive developments such as cost efficiency improvements and growth in the Europe and International segment, alongside challenges including reduced revenue expectations and difficulties in North America and Greater China. The company is taking strategic actions to address these issues.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Cost Efficiency Improvements
Oatly has driven down its cost of goods per liter by 10% compared to last year's first half, achieving its eighth straight quarter of year-on-year reductions. SG&A overhead expenses have also been reduced, providing additional funds for branding investments.
Europe and International Growth
The Europe and International segment showed strong performance with a 9.4% increase in volume and double-digit revenue growth. The EBITDA margin improved from the low double digits to over 20% in Q2.
Improved Gross Margin and EBITDA
Gross margin expanded by 330 basis points to 32.5%, and adjusted EBITDA improved by $7 million year-on-year to a loss of $3.6 million, marking the best quarterly results since becoming a public company.
Strategic Initiatives and Product Innovations
Oatly's growth playbook is driving demand through new product launches and increased consumer engagement, particularly in the European market. The introduction of the Oatly Look Book aims to break down taste barriers and enhance product offerings.
Negative Updates
North America Challenges
North America segment faced a 6.8% decline in revenue due to changes in sourcing strategy with a large customer and frozen SKU rationalization. The segment's adjusted EBITDA declined by $3.5 million compared to the prior year.
Reduced Full Year Outlook
Oatly reduced its full-year outlook for constant currency revenue growth to approximately flat to plus 1%, citing slower-than-expected progress in North America and a soft macro environment in Greater China.
Challenges in Greater China
The Greater China segment saw a 6.6% constant currency revenue decline, attributed to a challenging consumer environment. A strategic review of the Greater China business is underway.
Company Guidance
During the Oatly Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the management provided refined guidance for fiscal year 2025, reflecting challenges in specific markets. Constant currency revenue growth is now expected to range from flat to 1%, adjusting downwards due to slower-than-anticipated progress in North America and a soft macroeconomic environment in Greater China. However, the company reaffirmed its adjusted EBITDA guidance, maintaining a range of $5 million to $15 million, and projected capital expenditures of approximately $20 million. Oatly emphasized ongoing cost reduction efforts, reporting an eighth consecutive quarter of year-on-year reductions in the cost of goods sold per liter, achieving a 10% decrease in the first half compared to the previous year. Additionally, in the Europe and International segment, Oatly experienced a revenue growth of 4.7% in the quarter, outpacing the category growth of 1.9%. The company also announced a strategic review of its Greater China business, aiming to accelerate growth and maximize value.Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Oatly Group shows steady revenue growth and improving gross profit margins but faces ongoing profitability issues with persistent net losses and negative margins. The high debt-to-equity ratio and negative cash flows further indicate financial instability.Income Statement
Oatly Group has experienced modest revenue growth over the years, with a recent decline in TTM figures. Gross profit margins have improved, but the company continues to face significant net losses, reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The net profit margin remains negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, signaling substantial leverage. However, the equity ratio has improved recently, suggesting better asset management. Return on equity is negative due to persistent net losses, highlighting profitability concerns.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Oatly's cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, exacerbating concerns about cash management. Although the free cash flow has shown some improvement recently, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains unfavorable.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 822.04M | 823.67M | 783.35M | 722.24M | 643.19M | 421.35M |
| Gross Profit | 244.92M | 236.49M | 152.08M | 80.03M | 155.01M | 129.24M |
| EBITDA | -55.13M | -86.13M | -287.79M | -335.15M | -172.15M | -32.96M |
| Net Income | -168.58M | -201.95M | -416.87M | -392.57M | -212.39M | -60.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 793.02M | 803.98M | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.63B | 678.93M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 74.43M | 98.92M | 249.30M | 82.64M | 545.51M | 105.36M |
| Total Debt | 475.93M | 491.45M | 532.84M | 151.70M | 149.21M | 233.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 671.14M | 697.86M | 781.19M | 434.05M | 383.61M | 352.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 120.55M | 104.69M | 333.99M | 791.14M | 1.25B | 326.09M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -130.86M | -155.62M | -234.67M | -475.11M | -495.43M | -186.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -88.91M | -114.43M | -165.63M | -268.95M | -213.83M | -44.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.71M | -9.25M | -26.70M | 34.79M | -544.33M | -141.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -23.63M | -27.29M | 355.00M | 35.92M | 955.80M | 273.91M |
Oatly Group Technical Analysis
Positive
17.08
Price Trends
13.87
Positive
11.86
Positive
12.13
Positive
Market Momentum
1.03
Negative
63.15
Neutral
75.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.86, above the 50-day MA of 13.87, and above the 200-day MA of 12.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OTLY.
Oatly Group Risk Analysis
Oatly Group disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oatly Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oatly Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $4.34B | 23.38 | 37.23% | ― | 0.81% | 5.51% | |
72 Outperform | $3.40B | 11.48 | 24.18% | 7.74% | 17.01% | 11.63% | |
72 Outperform | $1.89B | 30.73 | 24.35% | ― | 11.97% | 16.10% | |
66 Neutral | £7.77B | 8.51 | 7.55% | 3.54% | 2.08% | 24.83% | |
54 Neutral | $225.60M | ― | -22.11% | ― | -1.08% | 54.50% | |
48 Neutral | $504.37M | ― | -114.20% | ― | 4.47% | 42.22% | |
39 Underperform | $48.30M | ― | -161.48% | ― | 22.04% | -21.72% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
OTLY
Oatly Group
17.08
-1.64
-8.76%
AKO.A
Embotelladora Andina SA
19.01
5.57
41.44%
FIZZ
National Beverage
45.10
-0.82
-1.79%
BRFH
Barfresh Food Group
2.91
-0.57
-16.38%
ZVIA
Zevia PBC
3.01
1.82
152.94%
COCO
Vita Coco Company
33.18
7.74
30.42%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.