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Oatly Group (OTLY)
NASDAQ:OTLY
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Oatly Group
(NASDAQ:OTLY)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▼(-0.82% Downside)
Positive Factors
European market performance
The company is already starting to see some of its efforts paying off, with European retail takeaway having accelerated over each of the past 12- and 4-week periods, with OTLY's rate of consumption growth doubling that of the overall plant-based milk category and tripling that of the oat milk category over the latest 4-week period.
Strategic turnaround
The company views the progress it has been able to make in reigniting momentum in its Europe and International segment as a clear proof-point that it should be able to reenact the same playbook to turn around its North America business as well, over time.
Negative Factors
Financial performance
Return on Equity TTM is significantly negative at -92.07%.
North America sales challenges
Trends in the North America segment, while likely set to improve sequentially relative to the 2Q25 result, will remain challenged through at least the balance of the year until OTLY fully laps the impact of lost sales to its large North America foodservice customer and the discontinuation of certain frozen products.
Reduced sales outlook
Following a second consecutive quarter of disappointing, ~flat YOY organic sales growth, OTLY revised its 2025 top-line outlook and now looks for constant currency sales growth in a flat to +1% YOY range, versus a +2-4% YOY range previously.
Oatly Group (OTLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$519.53M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)193.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.90
Revenue Growth4.47%
EPS Growth42.22%
CountryUS
Employees1,468
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength45
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding30,310,772
10 Day Avg. Volume238,549
30 Day Avg. Volume193,825
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-14.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.00Price Target Upside16.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOatly Group (OTLY) is a Swedish food company renowned for its pioneering oat-based products. Operating primarily in the plant-based food and beverage sector, Oatly offers a diverse range of oat-derived products including oat milk, oat-based ice cream, yogurt, and spreads. The company is committed to sustainability and health-conscious consumption, positioning its products as environmentally friendly alternatives to dairy.
How the Company Makes MoneyOatly Group generates revenue through the sale of its oat-based products, primarily targeting health-conscious and environmentally aware consumers. The company's key revenue streams include retail sales through supermarkets and online platforms, food service sales to cafes and restaurants, and partnerships with distributors to expand its market reach. Oatly has established significant partnerships with major retailers and food service providers to ensure widespread availability and brand presence. The company capitalizes on the growing demand for plant-based alternatives by continuously innovating its product offerings and expanding its global footprint.
Oatly Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant progress in cost efficiency, margin expansion, and international growth, particularly in Europe. However, these positives were balanced by challenges in North America and Greater China, leading to a cautious revenue outlook adjustment.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Cost Efficiency Improvements
Achieved a 10% reduction in the cost of goods per liter in the first half of 2025, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of year-on-year reductions.
Europe and International Segment Growth
Strong volume-led double-digit revenue growth with EBITDA margins increasing to over 20% in Q2 2025.
Margin Expansion
Q2 2025 gross margin expanded by 330 basis points year-over-year to 32.5%, contributing to the best quarterly adjusted EBITDA as a public company.
Free Cash Flow Improvement
Achieved a Q2 cash outflow of $5 million, the best quarterly performance as a public company, due to strong processes in managing inventory, collections, and payment terms.
Negative Updates
North America Segment Challenges
Slower-than-expected progress in North America, with a 6.8% decline in revenue due to a large customer sourcing strategy shift and frozen SKU rationalization.
Greater China Soft Market Conditions
Continued soft macro environment affecting performance in Greater China, leading to a strategic review of the business.
Reduced Revenue Outlook
Adjusted constant currency revenue growth outlook to approximately flat to plus 1% due to challenges in North America and Greater China.
Company Guidance
During the Oatly Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided updated guidance with several key metrics. Oatly expects constant currency revenue growth to be approximately flat to 1%, revised down due to slower-than-expected progress in North America and a soft macro environment in Greater China. Despite this, the company reaffirmed its adjusted EBITDA guidance, projecting a range of $5 million to $15 million, indicating no change from prior outlooks. Capital expenditure (CapEx) is expected to be approximately $20 million for the full year. The company highlighted its progress in cost efficiencies, noting a 10% reduction in the cost of goods per liter in the first half of the year and a continued focus on reducing SG&A overhead expenses. Additionally, Oatly reported a gross margin expansion of 330 basis points year-over-year to 32.5%, and an adjusted EBITDA improvement of $7 million year-on-year to a loss of $3.6 million in the quarter. The company also announced a strategic review of its Greater China business, considering options like a potential carve-out to accelerate growth and maximize value.Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Oatly Group shows steady revenue growth and improving gross profit margins but faces ongoing profitability issues with persistent net losses and negative margins. The high debt-to-equity ratio and negative cash flows further indicate financial instability.Income Statement
Oatly Group has experienced modest revenue growth over the years, with a recent decline in TTM figures. Gross profit margins have improved, but the company continues to face significant net losses, reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The net profit margin remains negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, signaling substantial leverage. However, the equity ratio has improved recently, suggesting better asset management. Return on equity is negative due to persistent net losses, highlighting profitability concerns.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Oatly's cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, exacerbating concerns about cash management. Although the free cash flow has shown some improvement recently, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains unfavorable.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 822.04M | 823.67M | 783.35M | 722.24M | 643.19M | 421.35M |
| Gross Profit | 244.92M | 236.49M | 152.08M | 80.03M | 155.01M | 129.24M |
| EBITDA | -55.13M | -86.13M | -287.79M | -335.15M | -172.15M | -32.96M |
| Net Income | -168.58M | -201.95M | -416.87M | -392.57M | -212.39M | -60.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 793.02M | 803.98M | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.63B | 678.93M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 74.43M | 98.92M | 249.30M | 82.64M | 545.51M | 105.36M |
| Total Debt | 475.93M | 491.45M | 532.84M | 151.70M | 149.21M | 233.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 671.14M | 697.86M | 781.19M | 434.05M | 383.61M | 352.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 120.55M | 104.69M | 333.99M | 791.14M | 1.25B | 326.09M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -130.86M | -155.62M | -234.67M | -475.11M | -495.43M | -186.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -88.91M | -114.43M | -165.63M | -268.95M | -213.83M | -44.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.71M | -9.25M | -26.70M | 34.79M | -544.33M | -141.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -23.63M | -27.29M | 355.00M | 35.92M | 955.80M | 273.91M |
Oatly Group Technical Analysis
Positive
17.14
Price Trends
15.42
Positive
13.06
Positive
12.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.49
Positive
54.00
Neutral
30.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.36, above the 50-day MA of 15.42, and above the 200-day MA of 12.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OTLY.
Oatly Group Risk Analysis
Oatly Group disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oatly Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oatly Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $3.48B | 12.00 | 24.18% | 7.72% | 17.01% | 11.63% | |
77 Outperform | $2.09B | 33.94 | 24.35% | ― | 11.97% | 16.10% | |
63 Neutral | $3.85B | 20.70 | 37.23% | ― | 0.81% | 5.51% | |
63 Neutral | $20.49B | 14.78 | -2.88% | 3.11% | 1.86% | -5.76% | |
54 Neutral | $198.62M | ― | -22.11% | ― | -1.08% | 54.50% | |
52 Neutral | $519.53M | ― | -114.20% | ― | 4.47% | 42.22% | |
39 Underperform | $49.02M | ― | -161.48% | ― | 24.52% | -7.31% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
OTLY
Oatly Group
17.29
-0.07
-0.40%
AKO.A
Embotelladora Andina SA
19.06
5.44
39.94%
FIZZ
National Beverage
40.01
-5.04
-11.19%
BRFH
Barfresh Food Group
3.08
-0.35
-10.20%
ZVIA
Zevia PBC
2.58
1.56
152.94%
COCO
Vita Coco Company
37.25
12.14
48.35%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.