Oatly Group (OTLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $460.66M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 111.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: 3.37%
• EPS Growth: 46.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,468
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): -2.15
• Shares Outstanding: 30,326,654
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 116,461
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 111,316
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -18.22
• 1Y Price Target: $16.33
• Price Target Upside: 7.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▲(2.11% Upside)

Oatly's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its challenging financial performance, characterized by persistent losses and high leverage. While the first profitable quarter and strong international growth are positive, valuation concerns and technical indicators suggest caution. The company's strategic focus on profitability and cost discipline offers potential for improvement.

Positive Factors

First Profitable Quarter

Achieving profitability marks a significant milestone, indicating improved operational efficiency and strategic execution, which can enhance long-term financial stability.

Strong International Growth

Robust growth in international markets like Greater China suggests successful market penetration and potential for sustained revenue expansion.

Financial Liquidity Enhancement

Improved liquidity through new bonds and credit facilities strengthens financial flexibility, supporting growth and operational resilience.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and weather economic downturns.

Cash Flow Challenges

Persistent cash flow issues can hinder the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives, impacting long-term growth prospects.

North America Revenue Decline

Revenue decline in North America highlights challenges in a key market, potentially affecting overall growth and market competitiveness.

Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oatly Group (OTLY) is a Swedish food company specializing in the production of plant-based dairy alternatives, primarily oat-based products. Founded in the 1990s, Oatly has positioned itself as a leader in the rapidly growing vegan and plant-based market, offering a range of products including oat milk, oat-based ice cream, yogurt, and cooking creams. The company focuses on sustainability, promoting its products as environmentally friendly alternatives to traditional dairy.

How the Company Makes Money

Oatly generates revenue primarily through the sale of its oat-based products across various retail channels, including supermarkets, cafes, and restaurants. The company's revenue model includes direct-to-consumer sales, partnerships with food service providers, and distribution agreements with major retailers. Key revenue streams include sales of oat milk, which is its flagship product, as well as other oat-based offerings. Significant partnerships with major coffee chains and restaurants enhance Oatly's market presence and contribute to earnings. Additionally, Oatly has expanded its product range and entered new markets, further strengthening its revenue potential.

Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Oatly Group is facing financial difficulties with persistent losses and high leverage. Despite strong revenue growth, profitability remains elusive due to high costs and debt levels. The company must improve operational efficiency and manage its debt to achieve financial stability.

Income Statement

Oatly Group's income statement shows a challenging financial position with consistent net losses and negative profit margins. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a gross profit margin of 30.62%, which is an improvement from previous years, but the net profit margin remains negative at -23.44%. Revenue growth is positive, with a significant increase of 74.9% in the TTM, suggesting potential for future profitability if cost management improves.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.95 in the TTM, indicating significant financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. However, the equity ratio stands at 11.87%, showing some level of equity financing. The company needs to manage its debt levels to improve financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights negative operating and free cash flows, with a free cash flow growth rate of -42.77% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.47, suggesting some efficiency in converting net income to free cash flow despite overall losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	843.00M	823.67M	783.35M	722.24M	643.19M	421.35M
Gross Profit	257.92M	236.49M	152.08M	80.03M	155.01M	129.24M
EBITDA	-53.85M	-86.13M	-287.79M	-335.15M	-172.15M	-32.96M
Net Income	-224.99M	-201.95M	-416.87M	-392.57M	-212.39M	-60.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	779.63M	803.98M	1.12B	1.23B	1.63B	678.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.90M	98.92M	249.30M	82.64M	545.51M	105.36M
Total Debt	120.90M	491.45M	532.84M	151.70M	149.21M	233.45M
Total Liabilities	759.75M	697.86M	781.19M	434.05M	383.61M	352.84M
Stockholders Equity	18.69M	104.69M	333.99M	791.14M	1.25B	326.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-48.21M	-155.62M	-234.67M	-475.11M	-495.43M	-186.04M
Operating Cash Flow	-25.24M	-114.43M	-165.63M	-268.95M	-213.83M	-44.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-18.49M	-9.25M	-26.70M	34.79M	-544.33M	-141.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-11.22M	-27.29M	355.00M	35.92M	955.80M	273.91M

Oatly Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 15.18
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.92, below the 50-day MA of 15.93, and above the 200-day MA of 12.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OTLY.

Oatly Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COCO	78 Outperform	$2.38B	36.17	24.02%	―	23.12%	16.20%
AKO.A	73 Outperform	$3.80B	13.03	25.18%	5.01%	18.92%	34.03%
COKE	71 Outperform	$11.51B	20.85	41.92%	0.74%	4.22%	22.24%
FIZZ	64 Neutral	$3.14B	16.48	45.84%	―	0.46%	0.91%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ZVIA	54 Neutral	$175.38M	―	-23.12%	―	6.17%	41.09%
OTLY	47 Neutral	$460.66M	―	-180.66%	―	3.37%	46.17%

Oatly Group Corporate Events

Oatly Group Reports Increased Revenue but Faces Operating Loss in Q3 2025

Oatly Group AB reported its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, showing a revenue increase compared to the previous year. However, the company faced a significant operating loss, with a net loss of $65.4 million for the third quarter of 2025. This financial performance highlights ongoing challenges in managing costs and achieving profitability, impacting its market position and stakeholder confidence.

Oatly Group Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results with Revenue Growth

Oatly Group AB reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a 7.1% increase in revenue to $222.8 million compared to the previous year. The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 million, reflecting strategic actions taken over the past three years. Despite a net loss of $65.3 million due to fair value losses on Convertible Notes, Oatly remains optimistic about its future growth potential. The company completed a refinancing process in early October 2025, which included issuing Nordic Bonds and replacing its revolving credit facility. This move is expected to strengthen its financial position and support its ongoing strategic review of the Greater China business.

Oatly Group Enhances Financial Liquidity with New Bonds and Credit Facility

On September 30, 2025, Oatly Group AB announced a series of financial arrangements aimed at refinancing its existing $130 million term loan and enhancing liquidity. The company issued SEK 1,700 million in Nordic Bonds and entered into a SEK 750 million super senior revolving credit facility, both of which are linked to sustainability performance indicators. These moves are expected to provide Oatly with more favorable financial terms and strengthen its market position. Additionally, the company appointed Rhulane Shiburi as an employee representative on its board of directors, reflecting its commitment to inclusive governance.

Oatly Group Announces Nordic Bonds Pricing to Optimize Capital Structure

On September 16, 2025, Oatly Group AB announced the pricing of SEK 1,700 million in senior secured floating rate bonds, known as the Nordic Bonds. The proceeds from these bonds will be used to prepay an existing $130 million term loan and repurchase certain convertible notes, aiming to optimize the company’s capital structure without raising additional financing.

Oatly Group Enhances Financial Flexibility with New Credit Arrangements

Oatly Group AB announced a series of financial maneuvers aimed at refinancing its existing credit facilities and improving liquidity. On September 9, 2025, the company entered into agreements to issue SEK-denominated Nordic Bonds and secured commitments for a SEK 750 million super senior revolving credit facility. Additionally, Oatly plans to repurchase and cancel certain U.S. Notes, enhancing its financial flexibility. These strategic moves are expected to strengthen Oatly’s financial position and support its growth in the competitive plant-based food industry.