Oatly Group (OTLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $344.81M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 64.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: 3.37%
• EPS Growth: 46.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,468
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): -2.15
• Shares Outstanding: 30,326,654
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 55,198
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 64,130
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -10.92
• 1Y Price Target: $15.67
• Price Target Upside: 36.02% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -2.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $884.62M

• Rating: 38 Underperform
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(4.17% Upside)

Oatly's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by high leverage and persistent losses. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and valuation metrics highlight ongoing profitability challenges. Despite positive developments in the latest earnings call, these are not sufficient to offset the significant financial and market challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth highlights Oatly's expanding market presence and product demand, crucial for long-term business sustainability.

International Expansion

Strong growth in international markets like Greater China indicates successful global expansion, enhancing Oatly's competitive positioning.

Financial Liquidity

Improved financial liquidity through new bonds and credit facilities strengthens Oatly's capital structure, supporting future growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, limiting Oatly's ability to invest in growth and manage economic downturns effectively.

Operating Losses

Persistent operating losses highlight challenges in cost management and profitability, impacting long-term financial health and investor confidence.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flows indicate inefficiencies in cash generation, potentially hindering Oatly's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products made from oats in Sweden. It offers Barista edition oatmilk, oatgurts, frozen desserts, ice-creams, and yogurts; ready-to-go drinks, such as cold brew latte, mocha latte, matcha latte, and mini oat drink in original and chocolate flavors; and cooking products, including Cooking Cream, in regular and organic, Crème Fraiche, Whipping Cream, Vanilla Custard and Spreads in a variety of flavors. The company was formerly known as Havre Global AB and changed its name to Oatly Group AB in March 2021. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Oatly generates revenue primarily through the sale of its oat-based products across various retail channels, including supermarkets, cafes, and restaurants. The company's revenue model includes direct-to-consumer sales, partnerships with food service providers, and distribution agreements with major retailers. Key revenue streams include sales of oat milk, which is its flagship product, as well as other oat-based offerings. Significant partnerships with major coffee chains and restaurants enhance Oatly's market presence and contribute to earnings. Additionally, Oatly has expanded its product range and entered new markets, further strengthening its revenue potential.

Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Oatly Group faces significant financial challenges with persistent losses, high leverage, and cash flow constraints. Despite some revenue growth and improved gross profit margins, the company struggles with profitability and financial stability. High debt levels and negative equity returns highlight the need for strategic financial management.

Income Statement

Oatly Group's income statement shows a modest revenue growth of 1.63% in the TTM, but profitability remains a significant concern with negative net profit margins (-26.69%) and EBIT margins (-18.24%). The gross profit margin improved slightly to 30.60%, indicating some efficiency in production costs. However, the persistent negative margins highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.47, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative (-265.21%), reflecting substantial losses relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is low, suggesting limited asset backing by equity, which could pose risks in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow growth rate of -29.51% in the TTM, indicating worsening cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.91 suggests some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow, albeit under pressure.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	843.00M	823.67M	783.35M	722.24M	643.19M	421.35M
Gross Profit	257.92M	236.49M	152.08M	80.03M	155.01M	129.24M
EBITDA	-89.84M	-86.13M	-287.79M	-335.15M	-172.15M	-32.96M
Net Income	-224.87M	-201.95M	-416.87M	-392.57M	-212.39M	-60.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	779.63M	803.98M	1.12B	1.23B	1.63B	678.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.90M	98.92M	249.30M	82.64M	545.51M	105.36M
Total Debt	547.58M	491.45M	532.84M	151.70M	149.21M	233.45M
Total Liabilities	759.75M	697.86M	781.19M	434.05M	383.61M	352.84M
Stockholders Equity	18.69M	104.69M	333.99M	791.14M	1.25B	326.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-52.79M	-155.62M	-234.67M	-475.11M	-495.43M	-186.04M
Operating Cash Flow	-27.55M	-114.43M	-165.63M	-268.95M	-213.83M	-44.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-18.47M	-9.25M	-26.70M	34.79M	-544.33M	-141.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-15.34M	-27.29M	355.00M	35.92M	955.80M	273.91M

Oatly Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 11.52
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.29, below the 50-day MA of 12.07, and below the 200-day MA of 13.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OTLY.

Oatly Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COCO	77 Outperform	$3.00B	46.31	24.02%	―	23.12%	16.20%
AKO.A	75 Outperform	$4.25B	13.68	25.18%	4.78%	18.92%	34.03%
COKE	72 Outperform	$12.89B	23.34	41.92%	0.61%	4.22%	22.24%
FIZZ	70 Outperform	$3.12B	16.97	40.93%	―	0.97%	0.36%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ZVIA	46 Neutral	$142.51M	-8.44	-23.12%	―	6.17%	41.09%
OTLY	38 Underperform	$344.81M	―	-180.66%	―	3.37%	46.17%

Oatly Group Corporate Events

Oatly Group Reports Increased Revenue but Faces Operating Loss in Q3 2025

Oatly Group AB reported its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, showing a revenue increase compared to the previous year. However, the company faced a significant operating loss, with a net loss of $65.4 million for the third quarter of 2025. This financial performance highlights ongoing challenges in managing costs and achieving profitability, impacting its market position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTLY) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oatly Group stock, see the OTLY Stock Forecast page.

Oatly Group Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results with Revenue Growth

Oatly Group AB reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a 7.1% increase in revenue to $222.8 million compared to the previous year. The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 million, reflecting strategic actions taken over the past three years. Despite a net loss of $65.3 million due to fair value losses on Convertible Notes, Oatly remains optimistic about its future growth potential. The company completed a refinancing process in early October 2025, which included issuing Nordic Bonds and replacing its revolving credit facility. This move is expected to strengthen its financial position and support its ongoing strategic review of the Greater China business.

The most recent analyst rating on (OTLY) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oatly Group stock, see the OTLY Stock Forecast page.