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Oatly Group Ab (OTLY)
:OTLY
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Oatly Group (OTLY) AI Stock Analysis

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OTLY

Oatly Group

(NASDAQ:OTLY)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▼(-0.46%Downside)
Oatly's overall stock score is primarily affected by financial instability, highlighted by ongoing losses and negative cash flows. Despite positive technical momentum and cost efficiency improvements, valuation challenges and reduced revenue outlook weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Market Performance
Absolute sales growth remains superior to U.S. packaged food peers, indicating strong market performance.
Operational Efficiency
Analyst views the guidance for FY25 as a net positive, including tighter operational expenses and moderated free cash flow burn.
Negative Factors
Regional Challenges
Trends in the North America segment will remain challenged until OTLY fully laps the impact of lost sales to its large North America foodservice customer and the discontinuation of certain frozen products.
Sales Growth
Following a second consecutive quarter of disappointing, flat YOY organic sales growth, OTLY revised its 2025 top-line outlook to a flat to +1% YOY range.

Oatly Group (OTLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products made from oats in Sweden. It offers Barista edition oatmilk, oatgurts, frozen desserts, ice-creams, and yogurts; ready-to-go drinks, such as cold brew latte, mocha latte, matcha latte, and mini oat drink in original and chocolate flavors; and cooking products, including Cooking Cream, in regular and organic, Crème Fraiche, Whipping Cream, Vanilla Custard and Spreads in a variety of flavors. The company was formerly known as Havre Global AB and changed its name to Oatly Group AB in March 2021. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyOatly Group generates revenue through the sale of its oat-based products, primarily targeting health-conscious and environmentally aware consumers. The company's key revenue streams include retail sales through supermarkets and online platforms, food service sales to cafes and restaurants, and partnerships with distributors to expand its market reach. Oatly has established significant partnerships with major retailers and food service providers to ensure widespread availability and brand presence. The company capitalizes on the growing demand for plant-based alternatives by continuously innovating its product offerings and expanding its global footprint.

Oatly Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.05%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive developments such as cost efficiency improvements and growth in the Europe and International segment, alongside challenges including reduced revenue expectations and difficulties in North America and Greater China. The company is taking strategic actions to address these issues.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Cost Efficiency Improvements
Oatly has driven down its cost of goods per liter by 10% compared to last year's first half, achieving its eighth straight quarter of year-on-year reductions. SG&A overhead expenses have also been reduced, providing additional funds for branding investments.
Europe and International Growth
The Europe and International segment showed strong performance with a 9.4% increase in volume and double-digit revenue growth. The EBITDA margin improved from the low double digits to over 20% in Q2.
Improved Gross Margin and EBITDA
Gross margin expanded by 330 basis points to 32.5%, and adjusted EBITDA improved by $7 million year-on-year to a loss of $3.6 million, marking the best quarterly results since becoming a public company.
Strategic Initiatives and Product Innovations
Oatly's growth playbook is driving demand through new product launches and increased consumer engagement, particularly in the European market. The introduction of the Oatly Look Book aims to break down taste barriers and enhance product offerings.
Negative Updates
North America Challenges
North America segment faced a 6.8% decline in revenue due to changes in sourcing strategy with a large customer and frozen SKU rationalization. The segment's adjusted EBITDA declined by $3.5 million compared to the prior year.
Reduced Full Year Outlook
Oatly reduced its full-year outlook for constant currency revenue growth to approximately flat to plus 1%, citing slower-than-expected progress in North America and a soft macro environment in Greater China.
Challenges in Greater China
The Greater China segment saw a 6.6% constant currency revenue decline, attributed to a challenging consumer environment. A strategic review of the Greater China business is underway.
Company Guidance
During the Oatly Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the management provided refined guidance for fiscal year 2025, reflecting challenges in specific markets. Constant currency revenue growth is now expected to range from flat to 1%, adjusting downwards due to slower-than-anticipated progress in North America and a soft macroeconomic environment in Greater China. However, the company reaffirmed its adjusted EBITDA guidance, maintaining a range of $5 million to $15 million, and projected capital expenditures of approximately $20 million. Oatly emphasized ongoing cost reduction efforts, reporting an eighth consecutive quarter of year-on-year reductions in the cost of goods sold per liter, achieving a 10% decrease in the first half compared to the previous year. Additionally, in the Europe and International segment, Oatly experienced a revenue growth of 4.7% in the quarter, outpacing the category growth of 1.9%. The company also announced a strategic review of its Greater China business, aiming to accelerate growth and maximize value.

Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Oatly Group shows steady revenue growth and improving gross profit margins but faces ongoing profitability issues with persistent net losses and negative margins. The high debt-to-equity ratio and negative cash flows further indicate financial instability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Oatly Group has experienced modest revenue growth over the years, with a recent decline in TTM figures. Gross profit margins have improved, but the company continues to face significant net losses, reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The net profit margin remains negative, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, signaling substantial leverage. However, the equity ratio has improved recently, suggesting better asset management. Return on equity is negative due to persistent net losses, highlighting profitability concerns.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Oatly's cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, exacerbating concerns about cash management. Although the free cash flow has shown some improvement recently, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains unfavorable.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue823.67M783.35M722.24M643.19M421.35M
Gross Profit236.49M152.08M80.03M155.01M129.24M
EBITDA-86.13M-287.79M-335.15M-172.15M-32.96M
Net Income-201.95M-416.87M-392.57M-212.39M-60.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets803.98M1.12B1.23B1.63B678.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments98.92M249.30M82.64M545.51M105.36M
Total Debt491.45M532.84M151.70M149.21M233.45M
Total Liabilities697.86M781.19M434.05M383.61M352.84M
Stockholders Equity104.69M333.99M791.14M1.25B326.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-155.62M-234.67M-475.11M-495.43M-186.04M
Operating Cash Flow-114.43M-165.63M-268.95M-213.83M-44.31M
Investing Cash Flow-9.25M-26.70M34.79M-544.33M-141.37M
Financing Cash Flow-27.29M355.00M35.92M955.80M273.91M

Oatly Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price15.07
Price Trends
50DMA
12.15
Positive
100DMA
10.81
Positive
200DMA
12.14
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.88
Negative
RSI
71.49
Negative
STOCH
92.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.34, above the 50-day MA of 12.15, and above the 200-day MA of 12.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.49 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OTLY.

Oatly Group Risk Analysis

Oatly Group disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oatly Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Oatly Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$2.17B37.5424.86%8.01%11.26%
77
Outperform
$3.26B12.1023.07%0.28%13.22%11.37%
76
Outperform
$4.40B23.5537.23%0.81%5.51%
54
Neutral
$251.61M-28.87%-6.83%19.09%
50
Neutral
AU$2.19B>-0.01-14.39%10.51%7.38%-60.19%
48
Neutral
$456.78M-114.20%4.47%42.22%
39
Underperform
$50.85M-117.82%22.04%-21.72%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OTLY
Oatly Group
15.07
-4.00
-20.98%
AKO.A
Embotelladora Andina SA
19.10
5.57
41.17%
FIZZ
National Beverage
46.97
-2.45
-4.96%
BRFH
Barfresh Food Group
3.03
-0.47
-13.43%
ZVIA
Zevia PBC
3.39
2.56
308.43%
COCO
Vita Coco Company
37.77
13.79
57.51%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025