Oatly Group Ab (OTLY)
NASDAQ:OTLY
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Oatly Group
(NASDAQ:OTLY)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▼(-11.24% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals—high leverage with a very thin equity base, continued net losses, and negative free cash flow—despite improving margins and reduced cash burn. Earnings-call commentary supports a gradual operational turnaround and reaffirmed guidance, while technicals are neutral-to-slightly constructive but not strong enough to outweigh the balance-sheet and profitability risks. Valuation remains difficult to support given the negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Gross margin expansion
Q1 margin gains reflect fixed‑cost absorption, mix improvements and supply‑chain efficiency. These are structural levers that create durable operating leverage: if maintained, they support sustained gross profit per unit and provide a foundation for converting revenue growth into lasting EBITDA and cash generation over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage & thin equity
Extremely thin equity versus a large debt load meaningfully elevates refinancing, covenant and dilution risk. A high leverage profile constrains financial flexibility, raises interest‑rate sensitivity, and leaves limited buffer for future losses or investment, making capital structure a persistent strategic vulnerability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Gross margin expansion
Q1 margin gains reflect fixed‑cost absorption, mix improvements and supply‑chain efficiency. These are structural levers that create durable operating leverage: if maintained, they support sustained gross profit per unit and provide a foundation for converting revenue growth into lasting EBITDA and cash generation over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Oatly Group (OTLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$375.32M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)70.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth5.35%
EPS Growth24.94%
CountryUS
Employees1,468
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.38
Shares Outstanding31,225,000
10 Day Avg. Volume102,725
30 Day Avg. Volume70,662
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)17.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-8.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.28Price Target Upside-1.81% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$913.74M
Oatly Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products made from oats in Sweden. It offers Barista edition oatmilk, oatgurts, frozen desserts, ice-creams, and yogurts; ready-to-go drinks, such as cold brew latte, mocha ...
How the Company Makes Money
Oatly primarily makes money by selling oat-based consumer packaged goods, with revenue recognized from product sales to customers. Its key revenue streams are (1) retail/grocery sales, where Oatly sells packaged oatmilk and other oat-based product...
Oatly Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The quarter showed clear operational progress: double‑digit reported revenue growth, notable gross margin expansion (+188 bps), a return to positive adjusted EBITDA ($5M), improved free cash flow, and strong momentum in Europe and improving traction in North America driven by beverage innovation and execution. Offsetting these positives are meaningful near‑term cost headwinds from the Middle East conflict (fuel, logistics, packaging), margin pressures in North America distribution, a decline and strategic uncertainty in Greater China, and the expectation of no positive full‑year free cash flow in 2026. Management has reaffirmed guidance but remains cautious and will deploy working capital and efficiency levers to mitigate costs. On balance, the call conveyed stronger operating momentum and disciplined progress with acknowledged near‑term risks and uncertainty.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth — Q1 2026
Total revenue grew 15.6% year‑over‑year (8.1% on a constant currency basis) in Q1 2026, driven by volume (+5.6%) and price/mix (+2.5%), with a 7.5% FX tailwind in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Middle East Conflict Cost Headwinds
From March onward the conflict has driven higher fuel‑related costs (shipping/logistics) and packaging costs, creating visible negative COGS and logistics impacts and contributing to management guiding adjusted EBITDA toward the low end of the previously disclosed range.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth — Q1 2026
Total revenue grew 15.6% year‑over‑year (8.1% on a constant currency basis) in Q1 2026, driven by volume (+5.6%) and price/mix (+2.5%), with a 7.5% FX tailwind in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Oatly reaffirmed 2026 guidance calling for constant‑currency revenue growth of 3%–5% (with FX currently expected to add ~100–200 basis points to full‑year net sales), adjusted EBITDA toward the low end of the $25–$35 million range, and CapEx of $20–$30 million, while noting Q2 should be lower than Q1 and that the company does not currently expect to deliver positive free cash flow for the full year (improvement drivers are higher adjusted EBITDA and working‑capital moves). Management pointed to Q1 benchmarks underpinning the outlook: revenue +15.6% (+8.1% cc), volume +5.6%, price/mix +2.5%, FX +7.5%; gross margin 33.4% (+188 bps driven by +110 bps fixed‑cost absorption, +110 bps product/channel mix and +40 bps FX tailwind, offset by −80 bps inflation); adjusted EBITDA $5.0M (2.2% of net sales, +$8.7M y/y); and free cash flow −$11.7M (improved $8.8M y/y). Management warned the Middle East conflict has raised fuel‑linked shipping/logistics and packaging costs (visible from March and expected to weigh on Q2) but expects performance to improve meaningfully in the back half of the year.Oatly Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 862.46M | 823.67M | 783.35M | 722.24M | 643.19M |
| Gross Profit | 277.06M | 236.49M | 152.08M | 80.03M | 155.01M |
| EBITDA | -19.16M | -86.13M | -287.79M | -335.15M | -172.15M |
| Net Income | -152.77M | -201.95M | -416.87M | -392.57M | -212.39M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 787.20M | 803.98M | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 64.34M | 98.92M | 249.30M | 82.64M | 545.51M |
| Total Debt | 513.72M | 491.45M | 532.84M | 151.70M | 149.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 767.53M | 697.86M | 781.19M | 434.05M | 383.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.55M | 104.69M | 333.99M | 791.14M | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -36.12M | -155.62M | -234.67M | -475.11M | -495.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -23.72M | -114.43M | -165.63M | -268.95M | -213.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.54M | -9.25M | -26.70M | 34.79M | -544.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.18M | -27.29M | 355.00M | 35.92M | 955.80M |
Oatly Group Technical Analysis
Positive
13.52
Price Trends
11.13
Positive
11.31
Positive
13.42
Positive
Market Momentum
0.63
Negative
75.32
Negative
92.36
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OTLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.95, above the 50-day MA of 11.13, and above the 200-day MA of 13.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.32 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OTLY.
Oatly Group Risk Analysis
Oatly Group disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oatly Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oatly Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.82B | 42.30 | 23.19% | ― | 18.17% | 27.07% | |
69 Neutral | $4.09B | 14.87 | 24.24% | 4.78% | 4.53% | 15.66% | |
69 Neutral | $3.16B | 19.35 | 35.99% | ― | 1.01% | 1.21% | |
68 Neutral | $13.44B | 19.79 | 56.69% | 0.61% | 4.76% | -2.42% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
49 Neutral | $375.32M | -2.13 | -241.39% | ― | 5.35% | 24.94% | |
46 Neutral | $93.88M | -15.19 | -19.06% | ― | 4.01% | 55.00% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
OTLY
Oatly Group
12.02
1.88
18.54%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
201.94
67.33
50.02%
AKO.A
Embotelladora Andina SA
23.50
4.91
26.41%
FIZZ
National Beverage
33.75
-10.65
-23.99%
ZVIA
Zevia PBC
1.25
-1.01
-44.69%
COCO
Vita Coco Company
66.95
33.90
102.57%
Oatly Group Corporate Events
Oatly Delivers Double-Digit Q1 2026 Revenue Growth and Returns to Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Oatly reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $228.3 million, up 15.6% year-on-year, or 8.1% in constant currency, driven by strong growth in Europe International and retail-led gains in North America, partially offset by foodse...
Oatly Narrows Loss per ADS as Q1 2026 Revenue Climbs
Apr 29, 2026
Oatly Group AB reported unaudited interim results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, showing revenue of $228.3 million, up from $197.5 million a year earlier, and gross profit of $76.3 million versus $62.3 million. Despite the higher sales...
Oatly Publishes 2025 Annual Report as Revenue Rises and Debt Structure is Overhauled
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, Oatly Group AB published its Swedish statutory annual report for the 2025 financial year, reporting a 4.7% rise in revenue to $862.5 million, driven by volume growth in Europe International and Greater China, despite volume red...
Oatly Calls May 20, 2026 AGM, Proposes No 2025 Dividend and New Incentive Plans
Apr 10, 2026
On April 10, 2026, Oatly Group AB announced it had issued the formal notice convening its annual general meeting, scheduled for May 20, 2026, in Malmö, with shareholders able to vote in person, by proxy or via postal voting. The company will ...
Oatly Posts Higher Revenue and Margin as It Delivers First Full Year of Profitability in 2025
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Oatly reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, marking its first full year of profitability as described by management. The company posted fourth-quarter revenue of $233.8 m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.