National Beverage (FIZZ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.19B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 260.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 0.97%
• EPS Growth: 0.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,559
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 93,632,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 250,480
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 260,986
• PEG Ratio: 3.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.57
• 1Y Price Target: $35.00
• Price Target Upside: -3.90% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $36.00 ▼(-1.15% Downside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality—healthy margins, low leverage, and solid cash conversion—offset by a significant recent revenue decline and weaker technical trend (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is reasonable at ~16.5x earnings but lacks dividend support.

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability and Margins

Sustained gross and net margins near 37% and 16% indicate durable pricing power and cost structure in the non-alcoholic beverage business. Healthy margins support long-term cash generation, reinvestment in brands, and resilience to input-cost swings without relying on short-term volume gains.

Conservative Balance Sheet (Low Leverage)

Very low debt-to-equity (~0.12) provides financial flexibility to fund marketing, product innovation, or weather demand shocks without heavy refinancing. Combined with high ROE, this enhances capacity for strategic investment and shareholder actions while limiting solvency risk over the medium term.

Strong Cash Conversion

Operating cash flow at ~1.8x net income and FCF near 83% of net income show the business converts earnings into cash reliably. This supports internal funding for capex, brand investment, and shareholder returns, lowering dependence on external financing across economic cycles.

Negative Factors

Sharp Recent Revenue Decline

A ~24% YoY TTM revenue decline signals meaningful demand or volume pressure that could reflect market-share loss or weakening category demand. Prolonged top-line contraction undermines scale economics, constrains reinvestment capacity, and threatens long-term growth even with healthy margins today.

Volatile Free Cash Flow Growth

Negative and swinging FCF growth reduces predictability of funding for capex, marketing, and shareholder returns. Even with healthy absolute cash conversion, volatility forces conservative planning, can amplify impacts of revenue weakness, and raises execution risk for multi-quarter initiatives.

Equity / Earnings Volatility Across Periods

Meaningful year-to-year equity fluctuations suggest inconsistent retained earnings or capital adjustments, complicating forecasting and the reliability of ROE metrics. This variability can mask cyclical pressures or one-off items, increasing difficulty for long-term investors to model sustainable returns.

National Beverage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Beverage Corp., through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, markets, and sells a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks primarily in the United States and Canada. The company offers beverages to the active and health-conscious consumers, including sparkling waters, energy drinks, and juices under the LaCroix, LaCroix Cúrate, LaCroix NiCola, Clear Fruit, Rip It, Everfresh, Everfresh Premier Varietals, and Mr. Pure brands. It also offers carbonated soft drinks under the Shasta and Faygo brands. The company serves retailers, as well as various smaller up-and-down-the-street accounts through the take-home, convenience, and food-service distribution channels. National Beverage Corp. was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

National Beverage generates revenue through the sale of its wide array of beverage products, primarily targeting retail channels such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and mass merchandisers. The company's revenue model is largely driven by the volume of products sold, with key revenue streams coming from its established brands like LaCroix, which has gained significant popularity among consumers seeking healthier alternatives to traditional soft drinks. Additionally, National Beverage benefits from partnerships with distributors and retailers, allowing for enhanced market penetration and product visibility. The company's ability to innovate and expand its product offerings further contributes to its earnings, as it adapts to changing consumer preferences and market trends.

National Beverage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and consistent profitability (TTM gross margin ~37%, net margin ~16%) with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.12) and strong ROE (~39%). Cash conversion is solid (operating cash flow ~1.8x net income; FCF ~83% of net income), but the sharp TTM revenue decline (~-24% YoY) and negative/volatile FCF growth reduce the score.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and consistent, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin around 37% and net margin around 16%, supported by healthy operating profitability. Over the last several annual periods, earnings and margins generally improved versus earlier years, but the key concern is growth: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined sharply (about -24% year over year), signaling demand/volume pressure or tougher comparisons despite still-solid profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is low, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity near 0.12, which provides flexibility and lowers financial risk. Returns on equity are very strong (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) roughly 39%), indicating efficient profitability versus the equity base. A watch item is equity volatility across periods (equity fluctuates meaningfully year-to-year), but overall the balance sheet profile remains conservatively financed.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow exceeds net income (about 1.8x), suggesting strong cash conversion. Free cash flow remains healthy and tracks earnings reasonably well (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is ~83% of net income). The main weakness is volatility—TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow growth is negative and prior years show swings, which reduces visibility even though absolute cash generation is strong.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.20B	1.19B	1.17B	1.14B	1.07B
Gross Profit	443.94M	428.45M	396.79M	417.81M	421.62M
EBITDA	256.26M	238.67M	219.97M	239.40M	258.98M
Net Income	186.82M	176.73M	142.16M	158.51M	174.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	672.86M	770.15M	574.34M	467.80M	557.24M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	193.84M	327.05M	158.07M	48.05M	193.59M
Total Debt	72.12M	54.77M	41.53M	61.25M	43.64M
Total Liabilities	228.86M	210.64M	201.85M	228.37M	201.24M
Stockholders Equity	444.00M	559.51M	372.49M	239.44M	356.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	170.41M	167.61M	139.69M	104.12M	168.46M
Operating Cash Flow	206.70M	197.91M	161.66M	133.13M	193.77M
Investing Cash Flow	-36.27M	-30.25M	-21.95M	-29.00M	-25.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-303.63M	1.31M	-29.69M	-249.67M	-279.38M

National Beverage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIZZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.15, above the 50-day MA of 33.39, and below the 200-day MA of 39.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FIZZ.

National Beverage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COCO	77 Outperform	$3.04B	46.15	24.02%	―	23.12%	16.20%
AKO.A	75 Outperform	$4.57B	14.16	25.18%	4.78%	18.92%	34.03%
KOF	72 Outperform	$5.50B	18.21	16.18%	3.98%	-2.81%	-2.66%
FIZZ	70 Outperform	$3.19B	17.12	40.93%	―	0.97%	0.36%
COKE	64 Neutral	$12.99B	23.53	41.92%	0.61%	4.22%	22.24%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ZVIA	46 Neutral	$138.76M	-8.14	-23.12%	―	6.17%	41.09%

National Beverage Corporate Events

National Beverage Announces Stock Buyback Program

On October 30, 2025, National Beverage Corp. announced the commencement of a stock buyback program amidst challenging market conditions, including geopolitical headwinds and reduced consumer purchasing. Despite these challenges, the company remains confident in its strong financial position and ability to pursue opportunities to enhance shareholder returns, believing that current trading prices do not reflect its true value.

The most recent analyst rating on (FIZZ) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Beverage stock, see the FIZZ Stock Forecast page.