National Beverage (FIZZ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.45B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 244.58K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.23
• Revenue Growth: 0.97%
• EPS Growth: 0.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,559
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 93,632,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 229,870
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 244,580
• PEG Ratio: 3.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.64
• 1Y Price Target: $35.00
• Price Target Upside: -3.90% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(12.58% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/14/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality—healthy margins, low leverage, and solid cash conversion—offset by a significant recent revenue decline and weaker technical trend (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is reasonable at ~16.5x earnings but lacks dividend support.

Positive Factors

High Profitability

Sustained gross and net margins indicate durable pricing power and an efficient cost structure across the portfolio. Over the next several months these margins should help preserve earnings and underwriting of operating costs, supporting reinvestment or shareholder returns if volumes recover.

Low Leverage & High ROE

A conservatively financed balance sheet with very low debt provides flexibility to fund operations, weather demand dips, and allocate capital. Coupled with high ROE, it signals efficient use of equity, enabling durable shareholder value creation and optionality on buybacks or investments.

Strong Cash Conversion

Operating cash generation materially exceeds reported earnings and free cash flow tracks earnings closely, indicating solid underlying cash conversion. This durability in cash allows the company to fund operations, service obligations, and return capital even if top-line growth is pressured.

Negative Factors

Sharp Revenue Decline

A ~24% trailing-year revenue drop points to sustained demand or volume weakness that can erode scale benefits and limit growth options. Even with healthy margins, prolonged top-line contraction pressures long-term earnings power, investment capacity, and market positioning over the 2–6 month horizon.

Volatile Free Cash Flow Growth

Negative and inconsistent FCF growth reduces predictability of internal funding for capex, marketing or buybacks. For multi-month planning this volatility complicates capital allocation and increases execution risk, limiting the company's ability to sustain discretionary returns during downturns.

Equity Base Volatility

Material year-to-year swings in equity suggest episodic items or uneven retained earnings, which undermines the stability of reported returns and capital metrics. This variability makes ROE and other ratios harder to interpret and raises forecasting risk for medium-term performance.

National Beverage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Beverage Corp., through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, markets, and sells a portfolio of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks primarily in the United States and Canada. The company offers beverages to the active and health-conscious consumers, including sparkling waters, energy drinks, and juices under the LaCroix, LaCroix Cúrate, LaCroix NiCola, Clear Fruit, Rip It, Everfresh, Everfresh Premier Varietals, and Mr. Pure brands. It also offers carbonated soft drinks under the Shasta and Faygo brands. The company serves retailers, as well as various smaller up-and-down-the-street accounts through the take-home, convenience, and food-service distribution channels. National Beverage Corp. was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

National Beverage generates revenue through the sale of its wide array of beverage products, primarily targeting retail channels such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and mass merchandisers. The company's revenue model is largely driven by the volume of products sold, with key revenue streams coming from its established brands like LaCroix, which has gained significant popularity among consumers seeking healthier alternatives to traditional soft drinks. Additionally, National Beverage benefits from partnerships with distributors and retailers, allowing for enhanced market penetration and product visibility. The company's ability to innovate and expand its product offerings further contributes to its earnings, as it adapts to changing consumer preferences and market trends.

National Beverage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and consistent profitability (TTM gross margin ~37%, net margin ~16%) with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.12) and strong ROE (~39%). Cash conversion is solid (operating cash flow ~1.8x net income; FCF ~83% of net income), but the sharp TTM revenue decline (~-24% YoY) and negative/volatile FCF growth reduce the score.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and consistent, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin around 37% and net margin around 16%, supported by healthy operating profitability. Over the last several annual periods, earnings and margins generally improved versus earlier years, but the key concern is growth: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined sharply (about -24% year over year), signaling demand/volume pressure or tougher comparisons despite still-solid profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is low, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity near 0.12, which provides flexibility and lowers financial risk. Returns on equity are very strong (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) roughly 39%), indicating efficient profitability versus the equity base. A watch item is equity volatility across periods (equity fluctuates meaningfully year-to-year), but overall the balance sheet profile remains conservatively financed.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow exceeds net income (about 1.8x), suggesting strong cash conversion. Free cash flow remains healthy and tracks earnings reasonably well (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is ~83% of net income). The main weakness is volatility—TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow growth is negative and prior years show swings, which reduces visibility even though absolute cash generation is strong.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2025	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.20B	1.20B	1.19B	1.17B	1.14B	1.07B
Gross Profit	446.81M	443.94M	428.45M	396.79M	417.81M	421.62M
EBITDA	258.16M	256.26M	238.67M	219.97M	239.40M	258.98M
Net Income	186.53M	186.82M	176.73M	142.16M	158.51M	174.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	748.97M	672.86M	770.15M	574.34M	467.80M	557.24M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	269.31M	193.84M	327.05M	158.07M	48.05M	193.59M
Total Debt	66.19M	72.12M	54.77M	41.53M	61.25M	43.64M
Total Liabilities	197.72M	228.86M	210.64M	201.85M	228.37M	201.24M
Stockholders Equity	551.26M	444.00M	559.51M	372.49M	239.44M	356.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	156.84M	170.41M	167.61M	139.69M	104.12M	168.46M
Operating Cash Flow	191.41M	206.70M	197.91M	161.66M	133.13M	193.77M
Investing Cash Flow	-34.57M	-36.27M	-30.25M	-21.95M	-29.00M	-25.31M
Financing Cash Flow	-364.00K	-303.63M	1.31M	-29.69M	-249.67M	-279.38M

National Beverage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIZZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.12, above the 50-day MA of 33.84, and below the 200-day MA of 39.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.14 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FIZZ.

National Beverage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KOF	72 Outperform	$5.91B	19.66	16.18%	3.98%	-2.81%	-2.66%
COCO	72 Outperform	$2.85B	43.45	24.16%	―	23.12%	16.20%
FIZZ	70 Outperform	$3.45B	18.36	40.93%	―	0.97%	0.36%
AKO.A	70 Outperform	$4.40B	13.78	25.18%	4.78%	18.92%	34.03%
COKE	68 Neutral	$14.55B	25.03	168.34%	0.61%	4.22%	22.24%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ZVIA	46 Neutral	$123.76M	-7.43	-23.12%	―	6.17%	41.09%