Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV (KOF)
NYSE:KOF
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Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV
(NYSE:KOF)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$107.00
â–˛(8.06% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/13/26
The score is driven primarily by solid operating fundamentals (strong revenue momentum and steady profitability) but is held back by the sharp 2025 cash-flow deterioration and cautious 2026 outlook risks (Mexico volume pressure, margin/input-cost headwinds, higher financing costs). Technicals remain weak despite oversold signals, while valuation is supportive due to the mid-teens P/E and ~3.7% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & profitability
KOF delivered materially stronger top-line momentum through 2025 with category-appropriate margins. Durable demand, pricing and mix gains underpin recurring revenue expansion and steady operating profitability, supporting mid‑teens ROE and providing a stable earnings base over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Cash-flow deterioration
A pronounced 2025 decline in operating and free cash flow raises durable cash-conversion risk until working capital normalizes. Lower FCF constrains discretionary investment, shareholder returns and buffer against margin shocks, meaning liquidity and funding choices may be tighter for several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & profitability
KOF delivered materially stronger top-line momentum through 2025 with category-appropriate margins. Durable demand, pricing and mix gains underpin recurring revenue expansion and steady operating profitability, supporting mid‑teens ROE and providing a stable earnings base over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV (KOF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.21B
Dividend Yield3.98%
Average Volume (3M)226.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.0
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth-2.81%
EPS Growth-2.66%
CountryUS
Employees118,683
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.01
Shares Outstanding52,520,763
10 Day Avg. Volume196,202
30 Day Avg. Volume226,677
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio33.96
Price to Book (P/B)2.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.23
P/FCF Ratio62.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap12.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$112.00Price Target Upside13.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)123.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$308.66B
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademark beverages. The company offers sparkling beverages, including colas and flavored sparkling beverages; and waters and other beverages...
How the Company Makes Money
Coca-Cola Femsa generates revenue primarily through the sale of its beverages, which are sold to various retail outlets, including supermarkets, convenience stores, and restaurants. The company benefits from a strong distribution network and an ex...
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive tone: the company delivered revenue, EBITDA and net income growth alongside notable market share recoveries, strong product momentum (Coke Zero, Sprite Zero), digital adoption and sustainability achievements. Key challenges include Mexico's consumer softness and the near-term impact of the IEPS excise tax, some margin pressure driven by mix and fixed costs, the need to normalize working capital after ERP-related base effects, and higher financing costs. Management emphasized resilience, prudent capital allocation, and confidence in scaling digital enablers and recovering competitive positions—leading to a cautiously optimistic outlook.Positive Updates
Consolidated Volume and Revenue Growth
Consolidated volume increased 1.3% in Q4 to 1.09 billion unit cases; Q4 total revenues grew 2.9% to MXN 77.7 billion (currency-neutral revenue growth of 6%). December marked the strongest month in company history.
Negative Updates
Mexico Softness and IEPS Excise Tax Impact
Mexico full-year 2025 volumes contracted 0.9% Y/Y (but improved sequentially); company expects a low-to-mid single-digit volume decline in Mexico for 2026 due to the IEPS excise tax increase and continued soft consumer environment. Management remains cautious on further pricing given current elasticities.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Volume and Revenue Growth
Consolidated volume increased 1.3% in Q4 to 1.09 billion unit cases; Q4 total revenues grew 2.9% to MXN 77.7 billion (currency-neutral revenue growth of 6%). December marked the strongest month in company history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a prudent 2026 outlook: they expect a low-to-mid single‑digit volume decline in Mexico (after the IEPS excise tax hit in Q1) and low-to-mid single‑digit volume growth in Brazil, implying consolidated volumes roughly flat to slightly positive for the year; CapEx should fall from 8.2% of revenues in 2025 to about 7.0–7.5% (likely the low end) in 2026 with medium‑term CapEx nearer ~6.5% before stepping up toward 2029/2030 for a new Brazil plant; they will delay any definitive shareholder‑remuneration decision pending first‑half cash‑flow visibility (after completing a MXN 10 billion dual‑ tranche bond issuance — MXN 7bn 10‑yr at 9.12% and MXN 3bn 3‑yr at TA+38bp); operational priorities include rolling out Juntos+ Advisor across the four largest markets, defending household penetration with affordability and returnable packs, and targeting close‑to‑flat EBIT margins by offsetting expected gross‑margin pressure (notably aluminum) with expense and productivity measures (noting December was the strongest month on record).Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 291.75B | 279.79B | 245.09B | 226.74B | 194.80B |
| Gross Profit | 133.18B | 128.74B | 110.86B | 100.30B | 88.60B |
| EBITDA | 55.18B | 52.85B | 43.82B | 40.45B | 37.33B |
| Net Income | 23.84B | 23.73B | 19.54B | 19.03B | 15.71B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 314.54B | 307.99B | 273.52B | 278.00B | 271.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.07B | 32.78B | 31.06B | 40.28B | 47.25B |
| Total Debt | 82.68B | 78.39B | 69.31B | 80.80B | 87.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 160.51B | 157.44B | 139.81B | 146.12B | 144.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 146.20B | 143.43B | 127.03B | 125.39B | 121.55B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.72B | 16.65B | 21.66B | 17.76B | 22.73B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 26.04B | 42.44B | 42.29B | 35.49B | 32.72B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.02B | -23.39B | -20.07B | -19.60B | -9.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.35B | -19.64B | -26.35B | -20.85B | -20.26B |
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Technical Analysis
Positive
99.02
Price Trends
104.53
Negative
98.66
Positive
91.70
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.82
Negative
47.80
Neutral
86.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KOF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 99.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.70, below the 50-day MA of 104.53, and above the 200-day MA of 91.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KOF.
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Risk Analysis
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
If we fail to comply with privacy and data protection laws, we could be subject to adverse publicity, business disruption, data loss, government enforcement actions and/or private litigation, any of which could negatively affect our business and operating results. Q4, 2023
2.
Product safety and quality concerns could negatively affect our business. Q4, 2023
3.
Pandemics and public health crises, may adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Q4, 2023
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $332.10B | 22.95 | 44.35% | 2.92% | 2.93% | 25.42% | |
70 Outperform | $214.19B | 23.86 | 43.03% | 3.91% | 0.48% | -22.61% | |
69 Neutral | $41.80B | 18.13 | 24.48% | 2.52% | 9.65% | -4.26% | |
68 Neutral | $13.18B | 19.79 | 56.69% | 0.61% | 4.22% | 22.24% | |
66 Neutral | $5.21B | 15.03 | 16.56% | 3.98% | -2.81% | -2.66% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $34.92B | 18.30 | 8.29% | 3.12% | 6.77% | -29.84% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
KOF
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV
99.02
12.99
15.09%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
197.97
69.52
54.12%
KO
Coca-Cola
77.22
10.73
16.13%
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
25.70
-6.78
-20.87%
PEP
PepsiCo
156.73
21.83
16.18%
CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners
93.28
13.54
16.98%
Coca Cola Femsa SAB De CV Corporate Events
Coca-Cola FEMSA Board Proposes 2026 Ordinary Dividend Payable in Quarterly Installments
Mar 4, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Coca-Cola FEMSA announced that its board has proposed an ordinary dividend of Ps. 0.9675 per share, equivalent to Ps. 7.74 per KOF UBL unit, for fiscal year 2026. If approved at the annual shareholders’ meeting scheduled fo...
Coca-Cola FEMSA Sets March 24, 2026 Date for Annual Shareholders’ Meeting
Mar 2, 2026
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. is the world’s largest Coca-Cola bottler by sales volume, supplying a wide portfolio of branded beverages to more than 276 million consumers in Latin America. With 56 manufacturing plants, 256 distribution cen...
Coca-Cola FEMSA Posts Strong 4Q25, Raises ESG Scores and Secures Ps. 10 Billion in Bonds
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Coca-Cola FEMSA reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a 1.3% increase in volume, 2.9% revenue growth, and a 13.3% rise in operating income, with majority net income up 3.0% and record December volumes in its ...
Coca-Cola FEMSA Raises Ps. 10 Billion in Oversubscribed Mexican Bond Offering
Feb 13, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Coca-Cola FEMSA announced it had successfully priced a dual-tranche bond offering in the Mexican market totaling Ps. 10,000 million. The issuance consisted of a 10‑year fixed‑rate tranche of Ps. 7,000 million at 9...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.