Primo Brands (PRMB)
NYSE:PRMB
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Primo Brands
(NYSE:PRMB)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▼(-3.23% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
PRMB scores mid-range primarily because financial performance is improving but still marked by thin/volatile profitability, while technicals are weak with negative momentum and the stock below key moving averages. The earnings call and recent financing/governance events are constructive (margin/FCF improvement guidance and extended debt maturity), but the very high P/E keeps valuation from supporting a higher overall score.
Positive Factors
Margin expansion and profitability improvement
Primo reported meaningful EBITDA margin improvement (FY2025 +170bps) and management guides another ~60–80bps in 2026. Sustained margin expansion demonstrates operating leverage, pricing/mix gains and synergy capture that can durably lift profitability if integration and cost discipline hold.
Negative Factors
Thin and volatile net margins
Despite EBITDA improvement, net margin is very thin (~0.9% in 2025) and historical profitability has swung year-to-year. Low net margins leave limited downside protection against cost inflation or volume weakness, making earnings and shareholder returns vulnerable to setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin expansion and profitability improvement
Primo reported meaningful EBITDA margin improvement (FY2025 +170bps) and management guides another ~60–80bps in 2026. Sustained margin expansion demonstrates operating leverage, pricing/mix gains and synergy capture that can durably lift profitability if integration and cost discipline hold.
Read all positive factors
Primo Brands (PRMB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.32B
Dividend Yield2.44%
Average Volume (3M)5.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)101.6
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth244.82%
EPS Growth-119.23%
CountryUS
Employees13,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding363,176,940
10 Day Avg. Volume3,749,835
30 Day Avg. Volume5,380,482
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.30
Price to Book (P/B)2.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio19.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.90Price Target Upside33.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.68B
Primo Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Primo Water Corporation provides water direct to consumers and water filtration services in North America and Europe. It offers bottled water, purified bottled water, premium spring, sparkling and flavored water, mineral water, filtration equipmen...
How the Company Makes Money
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Primo Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed material operational improvement and strong profitability gains despite modest top‑line pressure and lingering integration effects. Management highlighted sequential recovery in the direct delivery business (improving OTIF, NPS, Trustpilot and customer nets), robust premium brand growth (Mountain Valley and Saratoga up strongly), meaningful EBITDA and margin expansion in both the quarter and full year, solid free cash flow generation, and shareholder returns (share repurchases and a 20% dividend increase). Key challenges include continued direct delivery stabilization needs, modest full‑year sales guidance (0%–1%), integration work remaining in 2026, and one‑time weather and leap‑day headwinds. Overall the company appears to be on a constructive trajectory: profitability, cash generation, premium growth and operational KPIs are improving while revenue recovery is expected to be second‑half weighted.Positive Updates
Improved Profitability — Q4 Adjusted EBITDA
Q4 comparable adjusted EBITDA of $334.1M, up 11% year-over-year; Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin 21.5%, up 260 basis points versus prior year.
Negative Updates
Top‑Line Pressure — Q4 and Full Year Net Sales Declines
Q4 comparable net sales of $1.554B, down 2.5% versus prior year (volume down 2.9%, price/mix +0.4%); FY2025 comparable net sales $6.660B, down 1.0% (volume down 0.6%, price/mix down 0.4%).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Profitability — Q4 Adjusted EBITDA
Q4 comparable adjusted EBITDA of $334.1M, up 11% year-over-year; Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin 21.5%, up 260 basis points versus prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Primo guided 2026 to comparable net sales growth of 0%–1% (using a $6.635B 2025 base after the exit of office coffee service), with growth weighted to the second half (Q1 faces a tougher ~3% comp and direct‑delivery recovery expected to shift to H2); adjusted EBITDA of $1.485B–$1.515B (midpoint margin ~22.5%, roughly +70 bps year‑over‑year, and management expects margin expansion of ~60–80 bps), adjusted free cash flow of $790M–$810M, and capital spending of ~4% of net sales (with ~ $100M remaining integration CapEx, ~$50M carried into 2026). The company also announced a $0.12 quarterly dividend ($0.48 annual, +20%), plans to continue repurchases with ≈$107M remaining on the $300M authorization, and enters 2026 with year‑end liquidity of ≈$990M, gross debt of $5.2B and net leverage of ~3.37x; management noted EBITDA phasing is slightly back‑loaded (roughly a 48/52 split) due to front‑loaded reinvestments to restore service.Primo Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.66B | 5.15B | 4.70B | 1.69B | 2.07B |
| Gross Profit | 2.14B | 1.62B | 1.35B | 1.02B | 1.16B |
| EBITDA | 1.08B | 693.60M | 711.70M | 328.00M | 294.20M |
| Net Income | 60.10M | -16.40M | 92.80M | 29.60M | -3.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.60B | 11.19B | 5.15B | 3.67B | 3.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 376.90M | 614.40M | 47.00M | 78.80M | 128.40M |
| Total Debt | 5.73B | 5.68B | 4.05B | 1.62B | 1.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.61B | 7.75B | 5.15B | 2.38B | 2.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.99B | 3.44B | 2.70M | 1.28B | 1.32B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 310.00M | 317.00M | 117.30M | 119.50M | 95.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 687.40M | 467.20M | 320.90M | 281.60M | 247.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -299.10M | 474.40M | -217.60M | -181.50M | -242.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -634.20M | -366.40M | -162.30M | -102.80M | 10.80M |
Primo Brands Technical Analysis
Positive
20.15
Price Trends
19.65
Positive
18.14
Positive
21.18
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
56.30
Neutral
73.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRMB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.18, above the 50-day MA of 19.65, and below the 200-day MA of 21.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PRMB.
Primo Brands Risk Analysis
Primo Brands disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Primo Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Primo Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $336.23B | 22.95 | 44.35% | 2.92% | 2.93% | 25.42% | |
72 Outperform | $2.79B | 42.30 | 23.19% | ― | 23.12% | 16.20% | |
68 Neutral | $13.91B | 19.79 | 56.69% | 0.61% | 4.22% | 22.24% | |
66 Neutral | $5.56B | 11.94 | 16.56% | 3.98% | -2.81% | -2.66% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $35.90B | 18.30 | 8.29% | 3.12% | 6.77% | -29.84% | |
55 Neutral | $7.32B | 101.61 | 1.89% | 2.44% | 244.82% | -119.23% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
PRMB
Primo Brands
20.15
-12.68
-38.61%
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Primo Brands Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Primo Brands Refinances Term Loan, Extends Debt Maturity
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Primo Brands Corporation entered into a fifth amendment to its first lien credit agreement, refinancing its existing term loan maturing in March 2028 with a new senior secured first lien term loan facility totaling $3.09 billion...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Primo Brands appoints new director to strengthen governance
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Primo Brands Corporation announced that director Kimberly Reed, who served on the Nominating and Governance Committee and chaired the Sustainability Committee, had resigned from the board effective January 15, 2026, with the c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.