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Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
NASDAQ:KDP
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Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) AI Stock Analysis

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KDP

Keurig Dr Pepper

(NASDAQ:KDP)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(13.43%Upside)
Keurig Dr Pepper's overall stock score is supported by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights. Technical and valuation metrics suggest balanced risk, while corporate events bolster confidence in future prospects. The company's effective cost management and strategic growth initiatives further enhance its investment appeal.
Positive Factors
Growth Strategy
Keurig Dr Pepper's strategy of providing beverage occasions that fit consumer needs across multiple channels/formats can drive sustainable long-term profit growth.
Market Position
The cold portfolio continues to show solid momentum with KDP’s carbonated soft drinks growing and gaining category share.
Valuation
KDP's stock appears undervalued at 15x earnings, despite delivering strong growth, suggesting potential for future gains.
Negative Factors
Commodity Costs
Inflation in aluminum costs is a concern for 2026, although KDP plans to mitigate these effects.
International Sales
The international segment faced challenges, with sales expectations lowered due to external factors like poor weather.

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is a leading beverage company in North America, formed through the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group. The company operates in both hot and cold beverage segments, offering a wide array of products including coffee, soft drinks, teas, waters, juices, and mixers. Headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts, and Plano, Texas, KDP's portfolio includes popular brands such as Keurig, Dr Pepper, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Canada Dry, Schweppes, Snapple, and Bai. The company is committed to providing a range of convenient, high-quality beverages to meet diverse consumer preferences.
How the Company Makes MoneyKeurig Dr Pepper generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily driven by the sale of beverages and associated products. The company earns money from the sale of its branded beverages, including carbonated soft drinks, ready-to-drink teas, juices, and bottled water. Additionally, KDP benefits from its Keurig brewing systems and K-Cup pod sales, which provide a recurring revenue model as consumers purchase coffee pods for use with their machines. KDP's extensive distribution network and partnerships with retailers enhance its market reach, while strategic acquisitions and brand licensing agreements further bolster its financial performance. The company's revenue is supported by a combination of direct sales to retailers, foodservice providers, and vending machine operators, as well as e-commerce channels.

Keurig Dr Pepper Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales figures across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Chart InsightsKeurig Dr Pepper's U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment is a standout performer with consistent growth, bolstered by strong carbonated soft drink sales and the GHOST acquisition. Despite challenges in the U.S. Coffee segment, including a decline in net sales, the company remains resilient, focusing on mitigating green coffee inflation. Internationally, sales growth is steady, driven by liquid refreshment beverages. The company is optimistic about maintaining mid-single-digit sales growth and high single-digit EPS growth, supported by strategic pricing and cost management initiatives.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Keurig Dr Pepper Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -4.12%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveyed a positive sentiment overall, with strong growth in net sales, particularly in the U.S. refreshment beverages and energy segments, despite challenges such as rising costs and pressures in the coffee segment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Enterprise Growth
Net sales increased 7% with contributions from both price and volume mix, reflecting continued momentum in U.S. refreshment beverages and International segments, alongside sequential progress in coffee.
U.S. Refreshment Beverages Performance
Net sales grew almost 11%, driven by core strength and rapid expansion in recently entered white spaces, with Dr. Pepper, 7UP, and Canada Dry gaining market share.
Energy Segment Expansion
The energy segment, comprising GHOST, C4, Bloom, and Black Rifle, now represents over $1 billion in annual run-rate net sales with a 7% market share, marking rapid growth from below 1% a few years ago.
International Segment Growth
Net sales increased by 6%, driven by pricing and operating income growth, with market share gains in key categories such as mineral water in Mexico and K-Cup pods in Canada.
Capital Allocation and Cash Flow
Generated $325 million in free cash flow in the second quarter, with a focus on organic and inorganic investments, balance sheet strengthening, and returning cash to shareholders.
Negative Updates
Rising Cost Pressures
Facing challenges from rising cost pressures, including tariffs and consumer caution, which may impact the balance of 2025.
U.S. Coffee Segment Challenges
Despite sequential progress, the U.S. coffee segment faces higher commodity inflation, increased tariffs, and consumer uncertainty, leading to subdued expectations for the remainder of the year.
Gross Margin Contraction
Gross margin contracted by 110 basis points due to inflationary pressures that offset pricing and productivity savings.
Company Guidance
During the Keurig Dr Pepper earnings call for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company reported strong performance, with net sales increasing by 7.2% in constant currency. The growth was driven by a 5% increase in volume mix and a 2.2% rise in net price realization. The U.S. refreshment beverages segment saw a notable net sales growth of 10.5%, largely attributed to a 9.5% increase in volume mix, including contributions from the GHOST acquisition. U.S. coffee showed sequential improvement with net sales declining slightly by 0.2% but achieving a 3.6% increase in net price. International sales grew by 5.7%, spurred by a 5.3% increase in net price. Operating income grew by 7%, and the company maintained its guidance for mid-single-digit net sales growth and high single-digit earnings per share growth for the year. The company also highlighted its strategic initiatives, including the expansion of its energy portfolio, the acquisition of Dilo brands, and marketing innovations aimed at driving long-term growth.

Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Keurig Dr Pepper exhibits solid financial health with consistent revenue growth and strong profitability margins. The company maintains a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage and effective cash flow management, though there's room for improvement in return on equity.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Keurig Dr Pepper shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, achieving a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 1.09%. The company maintains healthy profitability margins with a gross profit margin of 54.68% and a net profit margin of 9.69% in the TTM period. Despite a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins from the previous year, the company remains profitable and stable, reflecting effective cost management and pricing strategies.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65, showcasing moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 45.53%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the return on equity is slightly lower at 6.15% in the TTM period, indicating room for improvement in utilizing equity to generate profits.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Keurig Dr Pepper demonstrates robust cash flow management with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.56, indicating effective cash conversion from net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.19, reflecting efficient capital expenditure management. The free cash flow growth rate is 8.10%, pointing to improved liquidity and capacity for reinvestment or debt reduction.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue15.35B14.81B14.06B12.68B11.62B
Gross Profit8.53B8.08B7.32B6.98B6.49B
EBITDA3.33B3.97B3.58B3.74B2.85B
Net Income1.44B2.18B1.44B2.15B1.32B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets53.43B52.13B51.84B50.60B49.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments510.00M267.00M535.00M567.00M240.00M
Total Debt17.27B14.82B11.97B11.88B13.49B
Total Liabilities29.19B26.45B26.71B25.63B25.95B
Stockholders Equity24.24B25.68B25.13B24.97B23.83B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.66B848.00M2.46B2.42B1.94B
Operating Cash Flow2.22B1.33B2.84B2.87B2.46B
Investing Cash Flow-1.61B-784.00M-1.14B210.00M-316.00M
Financing Cash Flow-223.00M-832.00M-1.73B-2.76B-1.99B

Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price33.50
Price Trends
50DMA
33.14
Positive
100DMA
33.48
Positive
200DMA
32.95
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.10
Negative
RSI
51.63
Neutral
STOCH
59.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.43, above the 50-day MA of 33.14, and above the 200-day MA of 32.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KDP.

Keurig Dr Pepper Risk Analysis

Keurig Dr Pepper disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Keurig Dr Pepper reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$46.01B29.9517.43%0.03%11.73%-15.34%
75
Outperform
$45.88B30.606.13%3.39%3.95%-28.73%
75
Outperform
$9.96B19.8736.83%0.74%3.21%31.84%
74
Outperform
$199.42B26.5639.88%4.70%-0.34%-20.51%
73
Outperform
$297.68B24.5344.76%3.58%0.95%14.67%
70
Neutral
$58.11B39.3420.00%1.47%-4.87%
68
Neutral
¥195.01B21.398.29%2.29%4.93%0.78%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
33.50
1.18
3.65%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
114.26
4.53
4.13%
KO
Coca-Cola
69.16
4.97
7.74%
MNST
Monster Beverage
59.19
9.09
18.14%
PEP
PepsiCo
145.66
-19.35
-11.73%
CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners
99.85
29.18
41.29%

Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Keurig Dr Pepper Reaffirms 2025 Financial Guidance
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. reaffirmed its 2025 guidance during meetings with the investment community on June 23–24, 2025. The company expects mid-single-digit growth in constant currency net sales and high-single-digit growth in Adjusted diluted EPS, emphasizing its strategic focus on non-GAAP financial measures.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Keurig Dr Pepper Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 23, 2025

On June 18, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key proposals were approved. The stockholders elected directors for a one-year term, approved an advisory resolution on executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Keurig Dr Pepper Declares Quarterly Dividend Announcement
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share, payable on July 11, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 27, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and maintaining its strong financial position within the beverage industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Keurig Dr Pepper Announces Board Leadership Changes
Neutral
Apr 25, 2025

On April 21, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper‘s Board of Directors approved the transition of Robert Gamgort from Executive Chairman to non-employee Chairman, effective April 24, 2025. The Board also expanded to ten directors, appointing Michael Van de Ven and Lawson Whiting as independent members, effective the same date. These appointments are part of the company’s strategic governance adjustments, with Van de Ven joining the Audit and Finance Committee and Whiting joining the Remuneration and Nomination Committee.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 18, 2025