Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
NASDAQ:KDP
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Keurig Dr Pepper
(NASDAQ:KDP)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(5.38% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is anchored by decent financial performance (steady growth and improved 2025 profitability) and supportive valuation (moderate P/E with a ~3.5% yield). These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risk factors pointing to near-term margin/EPS pressure from coffee inflation, shipment declines, and transaction-related costs.
Positive Factors
Brand strength & share gains
Sustained, multi-year share gains for flagship brands indicate durable brand equity and effective marketing. Persistent share momentum supports shelf placement, retailer leverage and pricing power, helping protect volumes and margins across business cycles over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage post-acquisition
Significant incremental debt to fund JDE Peet’s increases financial leverage and reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Higher debt loads raise refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constraining capex, M&A optionality and speed of deleveraging if demand or cash flow weakens over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Brand strength & share gains
Sustained, multi-year share gains for flagship brands indicate durable brand equity and effective marketing. Persistent share momentum supports shelf placement, retailer leverage and pricing power, helping protect volumes and margins across business cycles over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$36.10B
Dividend Yield3.12%
Average Volume (3M)9.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth6.77%
EPS Growth-29.84%
CountryUS
Employees29,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.60
Shares Outstanding1,358,666,000
10 Day Avg. Volume9,148,548
30 Day Avg. Volume9,737,029
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)2.29
P/FCF Ratio25.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.40Price Target Upside29.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.14B
Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. operates as a beverage company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages segments. The Coffee Systems segment manufact...
How the Company Makes Money
KDP generates revenue primarily by selling beverages and coffee-related products through a mix of direct-to-retail, distributor, and foodservice channels, supported by brand licensing and partnership arrangements.
1) Packaged Beverages (ready-to-...
Keurig Dr Pepper Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales figures across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Breaks down sales figures across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeurig Dr Pepper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive strategic and commercial narrative: robust top-line growth, market share gains across key brands and channels, strong international performance, meaningful cash generation, and clear progress toward the JDE Peet's acquisition and the planned separation into two pure‑play companies. However, material near‑term headwinds were emphasized — notably US coffee cost inflation, significant brewer shipment declines, gross margin compression, and expected Q1 2026 softness due to inventory and commodity/tariff timing — which will pressure early‑2026 results before easing later in the year. On balance, the company appears well positioned strategically, but investors should expect near‑term profit and EPS drag from coffee cost dynamics and transaction-related costs.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
FY2025 net sales +8.6% (constant currency), operating income +4.9% (CC), and EPS +7.3% (CC), delivering on 2025 guidance.
Negative Updates
US Coffee Profitability Pressure
US coffee segment operating income declined ~8.8% in Q4; elevated cost inflation (green coffee and tariffs) drove gross margin pressure and is expected to weigh on profitability into early 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
FY2025 net sales +8.6% (constant currency), operating income +4.9% (CC), and EPS +7.3% (CC), delivering on 2025 guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 combined net sales of about $25.9–$26.4 billion (which includes an incremental ~$8.5–$8.7 billion from the expected JDE Peet’s close in early April) and “low double‑digit” constant‑currency EPS growth, with JDE Peet’s expected to contribute roughly 6–7 percentage points to EPS on a three‑quarter basis (and ~10% accretion in the first full year post‑close); stand‑alone Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) guidance is +4–6% net sales and +4–6% EPS (constant currency) with FX an ~1‑point tailwind. Management gave quarterly/balance‑sheet particulars: Q1 EPS of $0.36–$0.37 (vs $0.42 year‑ago), full‑year interest expense of ~$1.07–$1.12 billion, an effective tax rate of ~22–23%, ~1.37 billion diluted shares, ~ $190 million pretax coffee JV cost flowing to noncontrolling interest, and convertible preferred costs (greater of ~ $53 million quarterly dividend or ~8% proportionate share of earnings); 2025 pro formas included net sales +8.6%, operating income +4.9%, EPS +7.3%, free cash flow of $1.519 billion, and KDP now expects standalone 2026 free cash flow of ~ $2.0 billion.Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
59
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.60B | 15.35B | 14.81B | 14.06B | 12.68B |
| Gross Profit | 8.70B | 8.53B | 8.08B | 7.32B | 6.98B |
| EBITDA | 4.19B | 3.38B | 3.97B | 3.12B | 4.01B |
| Net Income | 2.08B | 1.44B | 2.18B | 1.44B | 2.15B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 55.46B | 53.43B | 52.13B | 51.84B | 50.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.03B | 510.00M | 267.00M | 535.00M | 567.00M |
| Total Debt | 16.14B | 17.27B | 14.82B | 13.58B | 13.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.94B | 29.19B | 26.45B | 26.71B | 25.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.52B | 24.24B | 25.68B | 25.13B | 24.97B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.50B | 1.66B | 848.00M | 2.46B | 2.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.99B | 2.22B | 1.33B | 2.84B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -573.00M | -1.61B | -784.00M | -1.14B | 210.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -999.00M | -223.00M | -832.00M | -1.73B | -2.76B |
Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis
Neutral
26.57
Price Trends
27.68
Negative
27.62
Negative
28.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.48
Negative
48.60
Neutral
76.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.32, below the 50-day MA of 27.68, and below the 200-day MA of 28.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KDP.
Keurig Dr Pepper Risk Analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Keurig Dr Pepper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $74.07B | 39.27 | 25.65% | ― | 7.62% | 12.77% | |
76 Outperform | $333.44B | 22.95 | 44.35% | 2.92% | 2.93% | 25.42% | |
70 Outperform | $214.65B | 23.86 | 43.03% | 3.91% | 0.48% | -22.61% | |
69 Neutral | $43.66B | 18.13 | 24.48% | 2.52% | 9.65% | -4.26% | |
68 Neutral | $13.54B | 19.79 | 56.69% | 0.61% | 4.22% | 22.24% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $36.10B | 18.30 | 8.29% | 3.12% | 6.77% | -29.84% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
26.57
-7.98
-23.10%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
203.42
63.17
45.04%
KO
Coca-Cola
77.47
7.06
10.03%
MNST
Monster Beverage
75.72
17.14
29.26%
PEP
PepsiCo
157.06
15.96
11.31%
CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners
97.43
11.73
13.69%
Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Completes Landmark JDE Peet’s Acquisition
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper issued $4.5 billion of Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock and received a $4 billion capital contribution from a new pod manufacturing joint venture, using the proceeds to help finance its cash acquis...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Issues Notes to Fund JDE Acquisition
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper’s wholly owned subsidiary Maple Parent Holdings Corp. completed private offerings of €3.0 billion in euro notes and $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar notes across multiple maturities from 2028 to 2056, wi...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Prices Major Debt for Coffee Acquisition
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper announced that Maple Parent Holdings Corp. had priced private offerings of $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar notes and €3.0 billion in euro notes, with maturities ranging from 2028 to 2056 and guarantees initia...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Keurig Dr Pepper Restructures Financing for Coffee Spin-Off
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper amended its December 18, 2025 term loan agreement so that subsidiary Maple Parent Holdings Corp. joins as co-borrower, becoming jointly and severally liable for all obligations and agreeing to guarantee KDP’...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Updates Financing for JDE Peet’s Acquisition
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
Keurig Dr Pepper on February 23, 2026, detailed an updated financing plan and structure for its planned acquisition of JDE Peet’s and subsequent separation into two listed entities, Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. The company now expects ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Keurig Dr Pepper Expands Board, Restructures Governance Committees
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.’s board voted to expand its membership to eleven directors and appointed William Newlands and Amie Thuener as new independent directors, effective March 2, 2026. Newlands will join the Nominating a...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Keurig Dr Pepper Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share for common shareholders, scheduled for payment on April 10, 2026, to holders of record as of March 27, reinforcing the company’s ong...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.