Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $42.16B
• Dividend Yield: 3.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 10.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.17
• Revenue Growth: 6.77%
• EPS Growth: -29.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 29,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 1,358,666,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,671,250
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,319,978
• PEG Ratio: 0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.90
• 1Y Price Target: $36.22
• Price Target Upside: 20.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $24.04B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $34.00 ▲(12.77% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (revenue growth and improved 2025 profitability, offset by leverage and uneven/free-cash-flow trends) and a generally constructive earnings outlook with near-term margin/EPS headwinds. Technicals are supportive but stretched, and valuation is fair with a ~3% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Brand & Commercial Momentum

KDP's core brands (Dr Pepper, Keurig, Snapple) show durable commercial strength and consistent share gains, supporting pricing power and retailer presence. Persistent brand momentum underpins steady volume and mix advantages, helping sustain margins and defend revenue through cycles.

International Growth Diversification

Rapid international growth reduces dependence on mature U.S. markets, adding higher-growth revenue and operating‑income contribution. Geographic diversification smooths overall volatility, enhances scalability for global brands, and creates a steadier multi‑year growth runway for the company.

Scale & Strategic M&A (JDE Peet's)

The JDE Peet's acquisition plus planned separation creates two focused, scale advantaged businesses. Combined scale and a $4B pod JV lock in supply/volume economics, promising structural EPS accretion, clearer capital allocation, and long‑term operational efficiencies across coffee and beverages.

Negative Factors

Material Leverage

KDP's leverage remains elevated for a defensive beverage company, limiting financial flexibility. Higher net debt constrains investment optionality and raises refinancing sensitivity, especially as large transaction financing and preferred structures temporarily boost gearing during deleveraging.

US Coffee Profitability Pressure

Sustained coffee commodity inflation and weaker brewer demand have compressed US coffee margins and reduced pod profitability. Given coffee is a core cash generator, persistent margin headwinds and lower brewer placements can structurally weaken earnings and cash flow until cost or demand trends normalize.

Choppy Cash Generation

FCF is positive but volatile, with a 2025 decline and multi‑year inconsistency. Irregular cash conversion limits the company's ability to rapidly deleverage after major transactions, fund sustained dividends, or invest in growth without relying on external financing or asset monetizations.

Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. operates as a beverage company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages segments. The Coffee Systems segment manufactures and distributes various finished goods related to its coffee systems, K-Cup pods, and brewers, as well as specialty coffee. This segment sells its brewers through third-party distributors and retail partners, as well as through its website at keurig.com. The Packaged Beverages segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of packaged beverages of its brands; contract manufacturing of various private label and emerging brand beverages; and distribution of packaged beverages for its partner brands. The Beverage Concentrates segment manufactures and sells beverage concentrates primarily under the Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, A&W, 7UP, Sunkist, Squirt, Big Red, RC Cola, Vernors, Snapple, Mott's, Bai, Hawaiian Punch, Clamato, Yoo-Hoo, Core, ReaLemon, evian, Vita Coco, and Mr and Mrs T mixers brands. This segment also manufactures beverage concentrates into syrup. The Latin America Beverages segment manufactures and distributes carbonated mineral water, flavored carbonated soft drinks, bottled water, and vegetable juice products under the Peñafiel, Clamato, Squirt, Dr Pepper, Crush, and Aguafiel brands. The company serves retailers, bottlers and distributors, restaurants, hotel chains, office coffee distributors, and end-use consumers. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Keurig Dr Pepper generates revenue through various streams, primarily from the sale of beverages and related products. The company's revenue model includes direct sales to retailers, wholesalers, and foodservice operators, as well as the sale of coffee brewing systems and accessories. A significant portion of its earnings comes from the sale of single-serve coffee pods, which are compatible with Keurig machines. Additionally, KDP benefits from partnerships with retailers and distributors, which help expand its market reach. The company also engages in promotional activities and marketing campaigns to drive sales across its brand portfolio, further contributing to its revenue.

Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid but not pristine: steady revenue growth with a notable 2025 net margin rebound supports the outlook, while balance-sheet leverage remains meaningful and free cash flow declined in 2025 with multi-year volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from $11.6B (2020) to $16.6B (2025), with the latest annual growth accelerating to 2.7% versus near-flat growth in 2024. Profitability remains solid with consistently strong gross margins (~52–56%), and net margin improved to 12.5% in 2025 from 9.4% in 2024. Offsetting this, profitability has been somewhat volatile over time (net margin peaked in 2021 and dipped in 2024), and operating profitability appears less consistent (2025 operating margin data is not comparable to prior years due to the provided figure).

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks reasonably stable with equity increasing to $25.5B in 2025 and leverage trending modestly better versus 2024 (debt-to-equity down to ~0.63 from ~0.71), though still meaningful for a defensive consumer staples business. Total debt declined year over year to $16.1B, and returns on equity improved to ~8.1% in 2025 from ~5.9% in 2024. The key weakness is that leverage remains material and total debt is still above 2023 levels, leaving less flexibility if demand or costs turn unfavorable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive with $2.0B operating cash flow and $1.5B free cash flow in 2025, and free cash flow continues to cover a large portion of earnings (about 76% in 2025). However, free cash flow declined 6.7% in 2025 after a modest increase in 2024, and operating cash flow has been choppy over the cycle (notably lower in 2023 versus surrounding years). Operating cash flow relative to revenue is moderate (~24% in 2025), suggesting cash conversion is good but not exceptionally strong or consistent.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.60B	15.35B	14.81B	14.06B	12.68B
Gross Profit	8.70B	8.53B	8.08B	7.32B	6.98B
EBITDA	4.19B	3.38B	3.97B	3.12B	4.01B
Net Income	2.08B	1.44B	2.18B	1.44B	2.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	55.46B	53.43B	52.13B	51.84B	50.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.03B	510.00M	267.00M	535.00M	567.00M
Total Debt	16.14B	17.27B	14.82B	13.58B	13.27B
Total Liabilities	29.94B	29.19B	26.45B	26.71B	25.63B
Stockholders Equity	25.52B	24.24B	25.68B	25.13B	24.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.50B	1.66B	848.00M	2.46B	2.42B
Operating Cash Flow	1.99B	2.22B	1.33B	2.84B	2.87B
Investing Cash Flow	-573.00M	-1.61B	-784.00M	-1.14B	210.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-999.00M	-223.00M	-832.00M	-1.73B	-2.76B

Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.79, above the 50-day MA of 28.22, and above the 200-day MA of 29.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KDP.

Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNST	82 Outperform	$83.57B	48.62	25.54%	―	7.62%	12.77%
KO	76 Outperform	$347.15B	26.56	45.97%	2.92%	2.93%	25.42%
PEP	70 Outperform	$231.70B	28.25	42.86%	3.91%	0.48%	-22.61%
CCEP	69 Neutral	$48.40B	22.42	24.42%	2.52%	9.65%	-4.26%
KDP	69 Neutral	$42.16B	20.34	8.36%	3.12%	6.77%	-29.84%
COKE	68 Neutral	$12.99B	28.69	168.34%	0.61%	4.22%	22.24%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%

Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events

Keurig Dr Pepper Updates Financing for JDE Peet’s Acquisition

Keurig Dr Pepper on February 23, 2026, detailed an updated financing plan and structure for its planned acquisition of JDE Peet’s and subsequent separation into two listed entities, Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. The company now expects to fund the deal with about $9 billion of long-term debt, $8.5 billion of equity capital and the assumption of roughly $5 billion of JDE Peet’s bonds, targeting combined net leverage of about 4.5x by June 30, 2026 and projecting roughly 10% EPS accretion in the first full year after closing in early April 2026.

As part of the package, KDP increased its previously announced Apollo- and KKR-led convertible preferred equity investment from $3 billion to $4.5 billion with additional backing from T. Rowe Price Investment Management and other long-term investors, prompting it to shelve a contemplated partial IPO of Beverage Co. In parallel, the company signed definitive agreements for a $4 billion pod manufacturing joint venture for Global Coffee Co. that will own or access K-Cup and single-serve manufacturing assets in the U.S. and Canada, with KDP retaining 51% and using JV proceeds to help fund the JDE Peet’s purchase.

The joint venture structure, which brings in Apollo, KKR and Goldman Sachs Alternatives as a 49% investor group, is supported by long-term operating, supply and IP-licensing arrangements that lock in K-Cup sourcing and volume-based pricing for KDP affiliates. Global Coffee Co. is expected to raise about $9 billion of additional debt, assume JDE Peet’s existing bonds and later issue junior subordinated notes to term out borrowings, while KDP continues evaluating asset sales and other deleveraging options as it works toward a tax-free spin-off of Global Coffee Co. targeted for operational readiness by year-end 2026, subject to leverage and market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Expands Board, Restructures Governance Committees

On February 12, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.’s board voted to expand its membership to eleven directors and appointed William Newlands and Amie Thuener as new independent directors, effective March 2, 2026. Newlands will join the Nominating and Governance Committee and Thuener will join the Audit and Finance Committee, and both will receive standard non-employee director compensation.

Also on February 12, 2026, the board approved dissolving its combined Remuneration and Nominating Committee and creating separate Nominating and Governance and Compensation Committees, effective March 2, 2026. The moves signal a sharpening of board oversight structures around governance, compensation, and financial controls, with potential implications for how the company manages executive pay and corporate governance practices.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend for Shareholders

On February 3, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share for common shareholders, scheduled for payment on April 10, 2026, to holders of record as of March 27, reinforcing the company’s ongoing capital return program and signaling confidence in its cash generation amid a diversified beverage portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Secures Major Term Loan for Acquisition

On December 18, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. entered into a €10.35 billion, 364-day term loan agreement arranged by Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, with borrowings priced at EURIBO plus a margin tied to the company’s debt ratings and subject to customary investment-grade covenants, guarantees from key subsidiaries, and mandatory prepayments from certain asset sales and capital markets transactions. The facility is intended to provide flexible funding for the contemplated acquisition of JDE Peet’s, while an amendment executed the same day to KDP’s existing bridge credit agreement cut that bridge facility from €16.2 billion to €5.85 billion and redirected future debt proceeds to first reduce the new term loan, reshaping the company’s short-term financing mix around the planned transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Declares Quarterly Dividend

On December 9, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share, payable on January 16, 2026, to shareholders of record on January 2, 2026. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to providing consistent returns to its shareholders, reflecting its stable financial performance and strategic focus on maintaining strong investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.

Keurig Dr Pepper Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

On November 25, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. announced the appointment of Anthony DiSilvestro as Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Sudhanshu Priyadarshi, who will remain as a senior advisor until April 2026. DiSilvestro, with previous CFO roles at Mattel, Inc. and Campbell Soup Company, brings extensive financial and strategic expertise to the company, potentially strengthening its financial leadership and strategic execution.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDP) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Keurig Dr Pepper stock, see the KDP Stock Forecast page.