Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $39.27B
• Dividend Yield: 3.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 14.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.21
• Revenue Growth: 4.63%
• EPS Growth: -28.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 29,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 1,358,435,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,744,082
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,587,389
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.52
• 1Y Price Target: $38.20
• Price Target Upside: 30.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $34.00 ▲(16.24% Upside)

Keurig Dr Pepper's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive corporate events, notably the merger with JDE Peet’s. However, technical analysis indicates current market weakness, and high valuation metrics suggest limited immediate upside. The earnings call provides a mixed outlook with growth tempered by cost challenges.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Benefits

KDP announced plans to acquire JDE Peet’s in an all-cash transaction, which management believes will allow the company to benefit from JDE Peet’s global footprint and complement its leadership position within the North American single-serve coffee market.

Corporate Restructuring

KDP plans to separate into two independent, U.S. listed public companies, which could unlock value for investors.

Earnings Growth

Management expects the transaction to be EPS accretive year-one following the close and to realize $400mn in cost synergies over three years.

Negative Factors

Complexity and Risk

The complexity of merging and then spinning off the company introduces additional risks to the transaction.

Financial Risk

The acquisition of JDE Peet’s involves a significant capital outlay of approximately $18bn in new debt, increasing financial risk.

Investor Concerns

Shares have declined by 18% since the merger was announced, indicating investor dissatisfaction with the proposed structure.

Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. operates as a beverage company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages segments. The Coffee Systems segment manufactures and distributes various finished goods related to its coffee systems, K-Cup pods, and brewers, as well as specialty coffee. This segment sells its brewers through third-party distributors and retail partners, as well as through its website at keurig.com. The Packaged Beverages segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of packaged beverages of its brands; contract manufacturing of various private label and emerging brand beverages; and distribution of packaged beverages for its partner brands. The Beverage Concentrates segment manufactures and sells beverage concentrates primarily under the Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, A&W, 7UP, Sunkist, Squirt, Big Red, RC Cola, Vernors, Snapple, Mott's, Bai, Hawaiian Punch, Clamato, Yoo-Hoo, Core, ReaLemon, evian, Vita Coco, and Mr and Mrs T mixers brands. This segment also manufactures beverage concentrates into syrup. The Latin America Beverages segment manufactures and distributes carbonated mineral water, flavored carbonated soft drinks, bottled water, and vegetable juice products under the Peñafiel, Clamato, Squirt, Dr Pepper, Crush, and Aguafiel brands. The company serves retailers, bottlers and distributors, restaurants, hotel chains, office coffee distributors, and end-use consumers. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Keurig Dr Pepper generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of beverages and coffee systems. The company earns money by selling its wide range of soft drinks and non-carbonated beverages to retailers, restaurants, and foodservice operators. Additionally, KDP has a significant revenue stream from its Keurig brewing systems and related coffee pods, which are sold directly to consumers and through various retail channels. Strategic partnerships with grocery chains, convenience stores, and online retailers also enhance its distribution capabilities and sales. Moreover, KDP benefits from brand loyalty and market penetration, which contribute to consistent revenue growth and profitability.

Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Keurig Dr Pepper demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, robust cash flow management, and effective cost strategies. Despite slight declines in profitability ratios, the company maintains a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage and a strong equity base.

Income Statement

Keurig Dr Pepper shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, achieving a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 1.09%. The company maintains healthy profitability margins with a gross profit margin of 54.68% and a net profit margin of 9.69% in the TTM period. Despite a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins from the previous year, the company remains profitable and stable, reflecting effective cost management and pricing strategies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65, showcasing moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 45.53%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the return on equity is slightly lower at 6.15% in the TTM period, indicating room for improvement in utilizing equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Keurig Dr Pepper demonstrates robust cash flow management with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.56, indicating effective cash conversion from net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.19, reflecting efficient capital expenditure management. The free cash flow growth rate is 8.10%, pointing to improved liquidity and capacity for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.52B	15.35B	14.81B	14.06B	12.68B	11.62B
Gross Profit	8.10B	8.01B	7.61B	6.86B	6.39B	6.34B
EBITDA	3.35B	3.33B	4.07B	2.90B	4.03B	2.85B
Net Income	1.50B	1.44B	2.18B	1.44B	2.15B	1.32B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	53.70B	53.43B	52.13B	51.84B	50.60B	49.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	653.00M	510.00M	267.00M	535.00M	567.00M	240.00M
Total Debt	17.64B	17.27B	14.82B	13.58B	13.27B	14.48B
Total Liabilities	29.25B	29.19B	26.45B	26.71B	25.63B	25.95B
Stockholders Equity	24.45B	24.24B	25.68B	25.13B	24.97B	23.83B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.79B	1.66B	848.00M	2.46B	2.42B	1.94B
Operating Cash Flow	2.34B	2.22B	1.33B	2.84B	2.87B	2.46B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.48B	-1.61B	-784.00M	-1.14B	210.00M	-316.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-388.00M	-223.00M	-832.00M	-1.73B	-2.76B	-1.99B

Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 29.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.64, below the 50-day MA of 33.09, and below the 200-day MA of 32.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.82 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KDP.

Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNST	80 Outperform	$61.19B	39.66	24.10%	―	3.70%	-0.53%
COKE	78 Outperform	$10.16B	19.48	41.45%	4.97%	3.22%	23.88%
PEP	76 Outperform	$205.74B	27.40	39.88%	3.78%	-0.34%	-20.51%
KO	74 Outperform	$297.21B	24.47	44.76%	2.92%	1.34%	14.67%
CCEP	70 Outperform	$40.29B	24.08	17.99%	2.54%	9.65%	-4.26%
KDP	68 Neutral	$39.27B	25.65	6.18%	3.15%	4.63%	-28.22%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.49B	14.78	-2.98%	3.11%	1.86%	-5.76%

Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events

Keurig Dr Pepper Announces Merger with JDE Peet’s

On August 24, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) and JDE Peet’s entered into a merger protocol, with KDP planning to acquire all issued shares of JDE Peet’s for €31.85 per share. This acquisition aims to create a global coffee leader and subsequently separate into two independent companies: a North American refreshment beverage player and a global coffee champion. The deal is expected to generate significant value for shareholders, with anticipated cost synergies of approximately $400 million over three years and EPS accretion starting in the first year. The transaction will enhance KDP’s coffee positioning and unlock financial benefits, with Global Coffee Co. becoming the largest pure-play coffee company and Beverage Co. emerging as a scaled challenger in the North American market.

Keurig Dr Pepper Appoints New Trustee and Registrar

On August 15, 2025, U.S. Bank Trust Company, N.A. was appointed as the trustee, paying agent, and registrar for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.’s indentures, replacing Computershare Trust Company, N.A. The transition is expected to be effective by August 25, 2025, potentially impacting the company’s financial operations and stakeholder relationships.

Keurig Dr Pepper Reaffirms 2025 Financial Guidance

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. reaffirmed its 2025 guidance during meetings with the investment community on June 23–24, 2025. The company expects mid-single-digit growth in constant currency net sales and high-single-digit growth in Adjusted diluted EPS, emphasizing its strategic focus on non-GAAP financial measures.

Keurig Dr Pepper Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 18, 2025, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key proposals were approved. The stockholders elected directors for a one-year term, approved an advisory resolution on executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.