Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
NASDAQ:KDP
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Keurig Dr Pepper
(NASDAQ:KDP)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(16.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
KDP’s score is anchored by resilient profitability and healthy free cash flow, but held back by increased leverage and margin pressure. Guidance and synergy targets support an improvement narrative into the back half, while technicals are neutral and valuation looks demanding at a ~33x P/E despite a ~3.2% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Global coffee scale via JDE Peet's acquisition
Acquiring JDE Peet's creates a materially larger, global coffee platform with complementary brands and scale. The $400M synergy target and integration program support durable margin expansion, broader geographic diversification and stronger negotiating leverage with suppliers and retailers over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage post-acquisition
The sharp increase in absolute debt elevates interest and refinancing risk and constrains financial flexibility. Management must rely on execution of synergies, JV proceeds and steady FCF to hit targeted leverage reduction; persistent higher rates or weaker cash flow would prolong credit pressure and limit capital deployment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Global coffee scale via JDE Peet's acquisition
Acquiring JDE Peet's creates a materially larger, global coffee platform with complementary brands and scale. The $400M synergy target and integration program support durable margin expansion, broader geographic diversification and stronger negotiating leverage with suppliers and retailers over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Keurig Dr Pepper Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales figures across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Breaks down sales figures across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$39.62B
Dividend Yield3.12%
Average Volume (3M)11.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.1
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth9.19%
EPS Growth21.61%
CountryUS
Employees29,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.35
Shares Outstanding1,360,559,400
10 Day Avg. Volume9,776,987
30 Day Avg. Volume11,576,192
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)2.29
P/FCF Ratio25.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.17Price Target Upside25.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.27B
Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. operates as a beverage company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages segments. The Coffee Systems segment manufact...
How the Company Makes Money
KDP generates revenue primarily by selling beverages and coffee-related products through a mix of direct-to-retail, distributor, and foodservice channels, supported by brand licensing and partnership arrangements.
1) Packaged Beverages (ready-to-...
Keurig Dr Pepper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear near-term challenges with strong areas of execution and a supportive strategic outlook. Material short-term headwinds were highlighted — chiefly in U.S. Coffee (pod and brewer shipment declines, elevated green coffee costs), a 220-basis-point gross margin contraction, Q1 EPS decline (‑7.1%) and increased leverage following the JDE Peet's financing. Offsetting these negatives were robust results in U.S. Refreshment Beverages (11.9% net sales growth; operating income +9.8%), healthy International top-line growth (+8.5% CC), successful product innovation and distribution wins, the closed JDE Peet's acquisition with confirmed $400M synergy target, and reaffirmed full-year guidance (low double-digit EPS growth) supported by visible phasing and ~$2.5B aggregate free cash flow expected in 2026. Management communicated confidence in cost tailwinds and synergy delivery that should accelerate results in the back half of the year.Positive Updates
Acquisition of JDE Peet's Closed and Integration Underway
Closed the JDE Peet's acquisition on April 1, adding ~20,000 employees and complementary portfolios; integration operationalized with a transformation management office. Company confirms $400 million of targeted synergies and incremental North American revenue opportunities; targeting operational readiness to separate into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. by end of 2026 (separation likely early 2027).
Negative Updates
U.S. Coffee Revenue and Profit Pressure
U.S. Coffee net sales declined 2.3% in Q1; segment operating income declined 21.3%. Pod shipments were down 7% (trade inventory adjustments), brewer shipments declined at a high single-digit rate, and volume/mix detracted 8.2 percentage points to net sales. Management expects a modest full-year profit decline in U.S. Coffee with recovery concentrated in the back half of 2026.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Acquisition of JDE Peet's Closed and Integration Underway
Closed the JDE Peet's acquisition on April 1, adding ~20,000 employees and complementary portfolios; integration operationalized with a transformation management office. Company confirms $400 million of targeted synergies and incremental North American revenue opportunities; targeting operational readiness to separate into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. by end of 2026 (separation likely early 2027).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance calling for total company net sales of $25.9–$26.4 billion (including an $8.5–$8.7 billion contribution from JDE Peet’s) and low-double-digit EPS growth on a constant‑currency basis (with JDE Peet’s expected to contribute ~6–7 percentage points and legacy KDP ~4–6%); FX is expected to be ~a 1 ppt tailwind to sales and EPS. They assume interest expense of ~$1.13–$1.16 billion, an effective tax rate of ~22%, ~1.37 billion diluted weighted average shares, and new P&L impacts including roughly $190 million pretax coffee JV costs (flowing through noncontrolling interest) and convertible preferred costs (the greater of ~ $53 million quarterly dividend or ~8% proportionate share of earnings, expected to default to proportionate share in 2026). From a phasing perspective management expects high-single-digit EPS growth in Q2 with further acceleration in the back half as costs and synergies improve; midyear net leverage is expected to be ~4.5x, Q1 free cash flow was $184 million, legacy KDP FCF is expected to be ~ $2.0 billion for the year and aggregate company FCF ~ $2.5 billion (including JDE Peet’s), with operational readiness to separate by end‑2026 and target separation leverage of ~3.5–4.0x for Beverage Co. and ~3.75–4.25x for Global Coffee Co.Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.94B | 16.60B | 15.35B | 14.81B | 14.06B | 12.68B |
| Gross Profit | 9.11B | 8.70B | 8.53B | 8.08B | 7.32B | 6.98B |
| EBITDA | 3.70B | 4.19B | 3.38B | 3.97B | 3.12B | 4.01B |
| Net Income | 1.83B | 2.08B | 1.44B | 2.18B | 1.44B | 2.15B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 73.14B | 55.46B | 53.43B | 52.13B | 51.84B | 50.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 898.00M | 1.03B | 510.00M | 267.00M | 535.00M | 567.00M |
| Total Debt | 25.71B | 16.14B | 17.27B | 14.82B | 13.58B | 13.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.96B | 29.94B | 29.19B | 26.45B | 26.71B | 25.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.26B | 25.52B | 24.24B | 25.68B | 25.13B | 24.97B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.58B | 1.50B | 1.66B | 848.00M | 2.46B | 2.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.06B | 1.99B | 2.22B | 1.33B | 2.84B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.33B | -573.00M | -1.61B | -784.00M | -1.14B | 210.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.70B | -999.00M | -223.00M | -832.00M | -1.73B | -2.76B |
Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis
Positive
26.53
Price Trends
27.45
Positive
27.78
Positive
27.79
Positive
Market Momentum
0.40
Positive
58.03
Neutral
38.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.91, below the 50-day MA of 27.45, and below the 200-day MA of 27.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KDP.
Keurig Dr Pepper Risk Analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Keurig Dr Pepper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $84.88B | 31.12 | 25.46% | ― | 18.06% | 36.22% | |
78 Outperform | $350.57B | 21.03 | 43.62% | 2.92% | 6.74% | 27.16% | |
69 Neutral | $205.79B | 21.93 | 43.94% | 3.91% | 4.29% | -6.45% | |
69 Neutral | $41.72B | 8.42 | 24.48% | 2.52% | 6.82% | 44.68% | |
65 Neutral | $39.62B | 33.14 | 7.25% | 3.12% | 9.19% | 21.61% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | $11.68B | 24.66 | 122.90% | 0.61% | 8.81% | 14.00% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
29.12
-2.73
-8.57%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
175.53
61.99
54.60%
KO
Coca-Cola
81.48
11.73
16.82%
MNST
Monster Beverage
86.79
23.43
36.98%
PEP
PepsiCo
150.57
26.21
21.08%
CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners
94.12
7.00
8.03%
Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper, JDEP Establish Cross-Guarantee Financing Structure
Positive
May 22, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Maple Parent Holdings Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of Keurig Dr Pepper, issued €3.0 billion of euro notes and $2.55 billion of U.S. dollar notes, while on March 6, 2026, KDP amended its term loan agreement to add a ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Keurig Dr Pepper Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share on its common stock, payable in U.S. dollars. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on July 10, 2026, to sharehold...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Completes Landmark JDE Peet’s Acquisition
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper issued $4.5 billion of Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock and received a $4 billion capital contribution from a new pod manufacturing joint venture, using the proceeds to help finance its cash acquis...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Issues Notes to Fund JDE Acquisition
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper’s wholly owned subsidiary Maple Parent Holdings Corp. completed private offerings of €3.0 billion in euro notes and $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar notes across multiple maturities from 2028 to 2056, wi...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Prices Major Debt for Coffee Acquisition
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper announced that Maple Parent Holdings Corp. had priced private offerings of $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar notes and €3.0 billion in euro notes, with maturities ranging from 2028 to 2056 and guarantees initia...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Keurig Dr Pepper Restructures Financing for Coffee Spin-Off
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper amended its December 18, 2025 term loan agreement so that subsidiary Maple Parent Holdings Corp. joins as co-borrower, becoming jointly and severally liable for all obligations and agreeing to guarantee KDP’...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Updates Financing for JDE Peet’s Acquisition
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
Keurig Dr Pepper on February 23, 2026, detailed an updated financing plan and structure for its planned acquisition of JDE Peet’s and subsequent separation into two listed entities, Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. The company now expects ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.