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Keurig Dr Pepper
(NASDAQ:KDP)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
â–²(28.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/24/26
KDP scores as a solid but not risk-free setup: stable profitability and consistent free cash flow underpin the rating, while technicals show a constructive uptrend. The score is held back by the sharp increase in debt and earnings-call-recognized near-term pressure (gross margin contraction and U.S. Coffee weakness) even as management reaffirms guidance and expects improvement in the back half.
Positive Factors
Margin Sustainability
Sustained high gross and operating margins provide structural earnings resilience versus peers. Wide margins reflect pricing power, branded portfolio strength and route-to-market scale, helping absorb cost swings and fund reinvestment, dividends and deleveraging over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Substantially higher debt increases interest expense and reduces financial flexibility. With assumed interest of ~$1.13–$1.16B and leverage near 4.5x, the company must rely on FCF and asset actions to hit target covenants, making capital allocation and rating risk persistent constraints.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin Sustainability
Sustained high gross and operating margins provide structural earnings resilience versus peers. Wide margins reflect pricing power, branded portfolio strength and route-to-market scale, helping absorb cost swings and fund reinvestment, dividends and deleveraging over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Keurig Dr Pepper Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales figures across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Breaks down sales figures across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$45.31B
Dividend Yield3.12%
Average Volume (3M)12.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.7
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth9.19%
EPS Growth21.61%
CountryUS
Employees29,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.35
Shares Outstanding1,360,559,400
10 Day Avg. Volume15,317,697
30 Day Avg. Volume12,026,523
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)2.29
P/FCF Ratio25.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.50Price Target Upside30.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.26B
Keurig Dr Pepper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a prominent beverage firm with operations spanning both the United States and global markets. The company structures its business across four primary divisions: Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, an...
How the Company Makes Money
KDP primarily makes money by selling (1) packaged beverages and (2) coffee systems products. In packaged beverages, revenue is generated from the sale of branded and licensed ready-to-drink beverages to retailers and distributors, and through dire...
Keurig Dr Pepper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear near-term challenges with strong areas of execution and a supportive strategic outlook. Material short-term headwinds were highlighted — chiefly in U.S. Coffee (pod and brewer shipment declines, elevated green coffee costs), a 220-basis-point gross margin contraction, Q1 EPS decline (‑7.1%) and increased leverage following the JDE Peet's financing. Offsetting these negatives were robust results in U.S. Refreshment Beverages (11.9% net sales growth; operating income +9.8%), healthy International top-line growth (+8.5% CC), successful product innovation and distribution wins, the closed JDE Peet's acquisition with confirmed $400M synergy target, and reaffirmed full-year guidance (low double-digit EPS growth) supported by visible phasing and ~$2.5B aggregate free cash flow expected in 2026. Management communicated confidence in cost tailwinds and synergy delivery that should accelerate results in the back half of the year.Positive Updates
Acquisition of JDE Peet's Closed and Integration Underway
Closed the JDE Peet's acquisition on April 1, adding ~20,000 employees and complementary portfolios; integration operationalized with a transformation management office. Company confirms $400 million of targeted synergies and incremental North American revenue opportunities; targeting operational readiness to separate into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. by end of 2026 (separation likely early 2027).
Negative Updates
U.S. Coffee Revenue and Profit Pressure
U.S. Coffee net sales declined 2.3% in Q1; segment operating income declined 21.3%. Pod shipments were down 7% (trade inventory adjustments), brewer shipments declined at a high single-digit rate, and volume/mix detracted 8.2 percentage points to net sales. Management expects a modest full-year profit decline in U.S. Coffee with recovery concentrated in the back half of 2026.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Acquisition of JDE Peet's Closed and Integration Underway
Closed the JDE Peet's acquisition on April 1, adding ~20,000 employees and complementary portfolios; integration operationalized with a transformation management office. Company confirms $400 million of targeted synergies and incremental North American revenue opportunities; targeting operational readiness to separate into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. by end of 2026 (separation likely early 2027).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance calling for total company net sales of $25.9–$26.4 billion (including an $8.5–$8.7 billion contribution from JDE Peet’s) and low-double-digit EPS growth on a constant‑currency basis (with JDE Peet’s expected to contribute ~6–7 percentage points and legacy KDP ~4–6%); FX is expected to be ~a 1 ppt tailwind to sales and EPS. They assume interest expense of ~$1.13–$1.16 billion, an effective tax rate of ~22%, ~1.37 billion diluted weighted average shares, and new P&L impacts including roughly $190 million pretax coffee JV costs (flowing through noncontrolling interest) and convertible preferred costs (the greater of ~ $53 million quarterly dividend or ~8% proportionate share of earnings, expected to default to proportionate share in 2026). From a phasing perspective management expects high-single-digit EPS growth in Q2 with further acceleration in the back half as costs and synergies improve; midyear net leverage is expected to be ~4.5x, Q1 free cash flow was $184 million, legacy KDP FCF is expected to be ~ $2.0 billion for the year and aggregate company FCF ~ $2.5 billion (including JDE Peet’s), with operational readiness to separate by end‑2026 and target separation leverage of ~3.5–4.0x for Beverage Co. and ~3.75–4.25x for Global Coffee Co.Keurig Dr Pepper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.94B | 16.60B | 15.35B | 14.81B | 14.06B | 12.68B |
| Gross Profit | 9.11B | 9.00B | 8.53B | 8.08B | 7.32B | 6.98B |
| EBITDA | 4.05B | 4.19B | 3.38B | 3.97B | 3.12B | 4.01B |
| Net Income | 1.83B | 2.08B | 1.44B | 2.18B | 1.44B | 2.15B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 73.14B | 55.46B | 53.43B | 52.13B | 51.84B | 50.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 898.00M | 1.03B | 510.00M | 267.00M | 535.00M | 567.00M |
| Total Debt | 25.71B | 16.14B | 17.27B | 14.82B | 13.58B | 13.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.96B | 29.94B | 29.19B | 26.45B | 26.71B | 25.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.26B | 25.52B | 24.24B | 25.68B | 25.13B | 24.97B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.58B | 1.50B | 1.66B | 848.00M | 2.46B | 2.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.06B | 1.99B | 2.22B | 1.33B | 2.84B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.33B | -573.00M | -1.61B | -784.00M | -1.14B | 210.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.70B | -999.00M | -223.00M | -832.00M | -1.73B | -2.76B |
Keurig Dr Pepper Technical Analysis
Positive
26.53
Price Trends
29.97
Positive
28.64
Positive
27.70
Positive
Market Momentum
0.97
Negative
68.43
Neutral
82.79
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.58, below the 50-day MA of 29.97, and below the 200-day MA of 27.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KDP.
Keurig Dr Pepper Risk Analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Keurig Dr Pepper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Keurig Dr Pepper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $95.45B | 46.92 | 25.46% | ― | 18.06% | 36.22% | |
78 Outperform | $362.01B | 26.38 | 43.62% | 2.92% | 6.74% | 27.16% | |
69 Neutral | $197.12B | 22.61 | 43.94% | 3.91% | 4.29% | -6.45% | |
69 Neutral | $47.25B | 21.90 | 24.48% | 2.52% | 6.82% | 44.68% | |
68 Neutral | $45.31B | 24.67 | 7.25% | 3.12% | 9.19% | 21.61% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | $13.02B | 25.02 | 122.90% | 0.61% | 8.81% | 14.00% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
33.30
0.61
1.87%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
195.63
78.76
67.39%
KO
Coca-Cola
84.14
14.76
21.27%
MNST
Monster Beverage
97.60
34.52
54.72%
PEP
PepsiCo
144.22
14.00
10.75%
CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners
106.61
12.60
13.40%
Keurig Dr Pepper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Keurig Dr Pepper announces leadership changes before split
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper announced leadership changes as it prepares to separate into Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. in early 2027, with coffee unit head Rafa Oliveira set to depart at the end of July 2026 and CEO Tim Cofer temporari...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Keurig Dr Pepper Shareholders Back Leadership and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 16, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper shareholders re-elected all nominated directors to one-year terms and approved an advisory resolution on executive compensation, signaling continuity in the company̵...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper, JDEP Establish Cross-Guarantee Financing Structure
Positive
May 22, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Maple Parent Holdings Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of Keurig Dr Pepper, issued €3.0 billion of euro notes and $2.55 billion of U.S. dollar notes, while on March 6, 2026, KDP amended its term loan agreement to add a ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Keurig Dr Pepper Declares Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share on its common stock, payable in U.S. dollars. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on July 10, 2026, to sharehold...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Completes Landmark JDE Peet’s Acquisition
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper issued $4.5 billion of Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock and received a $4 billion capital contribution from a new pod manufacturing joint venture, using the proceeds to help finance its cash acquis...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Keurig Dr Pepper Issues Notes to Fund JDE Acquisition
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Keurig Dr Pepper’s wholly owned subsidiary Maple Parent Holdings Corp. completed private offerings of €3.0 billion in euro notes and $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar notes across multiple maturities from 2028 to 2056, wi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.