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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP)
NASDAQ:CCEP
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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners
(NASDAQ:CCEP)
Select Model
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$109.00
▲(1.16% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
Score reflects solid financial performance and a supportive earnings outlook (reaffirmed mid-term targets, continued strong cash generation and capital returns). Offsetting factors are stretched technical conditions (overbought signals) and a relatively high valuation for the growth profile, with leverage and regional volume softness as key risks to monitor.
Positive Factors
Consistent free cash flow generation
Reliable, multi-year free cash flow conversion supports repeatable capital returns (dividends and buybacks) while funding >EUR1bn annual capex. This durable cash generation underpins financial flexibility, allowing reinvestment and gradual deleveraging even if near-term operating cash dips.
Strong brand & category momentum
Sustained share gains in Energy and growth in Zeros reflect durable consumer demand and successful portfolio execution. Strong brand and category mix increases revenue per case and supports margin resilience versus commoditised segments, helping offset softness in select markets over the medium term.
Reaffirmed targets and productivity programme
Clear midterm targets plus a defined productivity plan provide structural support for margin expansion and cash flow. Delivering EUR350–400m of savings enhances competitiveness and funds investments, increasing the likelihood management meets growth and return objectives over the next few years.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High absolute debt and debt/equity above 1x limit financial flexibility. If earnings or cash flow weaken, servicing and refinancing risk rises, and ability to fund growth or accelerate buybacks/dividends is constrained until leverage materially falls or earnings sustainably improve.
Regional volume softness
Persistent double‑digit declines in a large market (Indonesia) and softness in Germany/France reduce topline resilience. Structural factors like macro weakness and tax-driven demand shifts can prolong recovery, pressuring scale benefits and making revenue growth targets harder to meet across 2–6 months.
Margin volatility from rising costs
Input cost inflation, sugar taxes and rising interest expense have compressed net margins despite operational improvements. Such structural cost headwinds can erode retained earnings and slow deleveraging, making cash returns and margin targets more sensitive to commodity and tax trends over the medium term.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.40B
Dividend Yield2.52%
Average Volume (3M)1.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.4
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth9.65%
EPS Growth-4.26%
CountryUS
Employees41,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.46
Shares Outstanding449,198,200
10 Day Avg. Volume1,990,996
30 Day Avg. Volume1,683,285
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)4.49
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio18.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$108.27Price Target Upside0.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCoca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, together with its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and sells a range of non-alcoholic ready to drink beverages. The company offers flavours, mixers, and energy drinks; soft drinks, waters, enhanced water, and isotonic drinks; and ready-to-drink tea and coffee, juices, and other drinks. It provides its products under the Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Fanta, Sprite, Monster Energy, Coca-Cola Energy, Relentless, nalu, URGE, BURN, Kuli, REIGN, POWERADE, Appletiser, Schweppes, FINLEY, mezzo mix, Royal Bliss, Lift, Vio SCHORLE, Coca-Cola Signature Mixers, NORDIC MIST, smartwater, Chaudfontaine, AQUARIUS, VILAS del Turbon, BONAQUA, Apollinaris, Krystal, Honest, Costa Coffee, Fuzetea, CHAQWA, NESTEA, Capri-Sun, Oasis, Minute Maid, MER, and Tropico brands. In addition, the company engages in the bottling and other operations. As of March 15, 2022, it served approximately 600 million consumers. The company was formerly known as Coca-Cola European Partners plc and changed its name to Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC in May 2021. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC was founded in 1986 and is based in Uxbridge, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyCoca-Cola Europacific Partners generates revenue primarily through the sale of beverages, operating as a bottler for The Coca-Cola Company. The company earns money by producing, packaging, and distributing Coca-Cola products, which includes a range of soft drinks, juices, and energy drinks. CCEP's revenue model is based on selling these products to retailers, foodservice outlets, and vending machine operators. Key revenue streams include direct sales to supermarkets and convenience stores, as well as distribution agreements with various partners. Additionally, CCEP benefits from strong brand recognition and marketing support from The Coca-Cola Company, as well as strategic partnerships that enhance its market reach and operational efficiency.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Coca-Cola Europacific Partners is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Coca-Cola Europacific Partners is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoca-Cola Europacific Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive picture: the company delivered a record year on revenue, profit, free cash flow and returns, showed strong brand and category momentum (notably in Energy, Zeros, GB and APS), expanded margins and reaffirmed midterm targets while continuing significant investment in capex, digital and sustainability. Material challenges remain—most notably double‑digit volume declines in Indonesia, softness in Germany and France (including French sugar tax impact), some promotional execution issues in Germany, and rising cost/tax/interest pressures—which management is addressing. Taken together, the highlights (strong growth, cash generation, mix recovery, ROIC improvement, and shareholder returns) materially outweigh the notable but manageable lowlights.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Financial Year Across Key Metrics
Full-year 2025 revenue of EUR 20.9 billion (+2.8% comparable), operating profit of EUR 2.8 billion (+7.1%), operating margin 13.4% (expansion ~50 bps), and adjusted EPS EUR 4.11 (+6.2%).
Strong Free Cash Flow and Capital Returns
Generated free cash flow just over EUR 1.8 billion after CapEx of ~EUR 1 billion; returned ~EUR 1.9 billion to shareholders (dividend EUR 2.04 per share plus EUR 1.0 billion buyback completed) and announced a further EUR 1.0 billion buyback for 2026.
Revenue Mix and Pricing Progress
Revenue per unit case growth of +2.9% with over one-third of that from brand and pack mix; company targeting roughly a one-third split of volume / mix / price for 2026 revenue growth.
Category and Brand Momentum
NARTD category value growth ~6% (Europe +2%, APS +5%); Energy volumes (Monster) up nearly 20% with share gains >200 bps; Zeros grew ~6%; ARTD category value growth ~10%.
Regional Standouts — GB & APS
Great Britain: revenue growth ~6% with volume gains in both channels and strong away-from-home wins. APS (Australia Pacific & SEA) top-line excluding alcohol +7%, share gains in sparkling, energy and sports.
Productivity, Balance Sheet and ROIC
OpEx as % of revenue improved to 22.1% (40 bps improvement); productivity program on track to deliver EUR 350–400 million savings by 2028; net debt/EBITDA just below 2.7x (within 2.5–3x guidance); ROIC up 70 bps to 11.5%.
Sustainability and Capability Investments
Remained on CDP Climate A list for 10th year; progressing packaging collection (DRS launch in Portugal, GB preparation); invested heavily in digital, AI and SAP S/4HANA and opened a new shared service center in Manila.
Strategic Portfolio Execution
Portfolio changes largely completed (e.g., Philippines transaction, Suntory transition underway) and management reiterates midterm targets and FY26 guidance (revenue +3–4%, profit +7%).
Negative Updates
Indonesia Volume Decline
Indonesia NARTD volumes excluding water were down double digits in 2025; management cites macro slowdown, pressure on tea category, and a near-term recovery expected but only single-digit turnaround baked into plans.
Softness in Germany and France
Germany and France experienced softer volumes in 2025. France was impacted by a higher sugar tax on Coke Classic; Germany was hurt by promotional pricing dynamics and slower first-half performance.
Promotional Execution Missteps in Germany
Certain promotional pack pricing in Germany moved above consumer thresholds causing hesitancy and lower frequency; management is reworking promo/value approach after second-half reinvestment to recover volumes.
Rising Cost Dynamics and Tax/Interest Headwinds
Cost of sales per unit case increased +2.7%, driven by higher concentrate costs and sugar/soft drink taxes; effective tax rate increased to ~26% and interest expense expected to rise as maturing debt is refinanced at higher rates.
Near-Term Headwind from Portfolio Exits
Suntory distribution exit and other portfolio changes create a near-term revenue impact (management estimates ~0.5–1 point drag) factored into FY26 guidance.
Slightly More Conservative Free Cash Flow Guidance
Free cash flow guidance for 2026 set at at least EUR 1.7 billion (down modestly versus 2025 result of just over EUR 1.8 billion) as the company prioritizes continued CapEx investment (~EUR 1+ billion) for growth.
Company Guidance
CCEP guided FY‑26 revenue growth of 3–4% and operating profit growth of ~7% (consistent with its mid‑term 4% revenue / 7% profit ambition), expecting cost of sales to rise about 1.5% per case and with ~80% of commodities hedged for the year; management expects free cash flow of at least EUR 1.7bn (with CapEx guidance unchanged and >EUR 1bn of investment planned), will commence a further EUR 1bn share buyback this year while maintaining an annual dividend payout ratio of ~50% that grows with earnings, aims to operate toward the bottom of its 2.5x–3x net debt/EBITDA range (net debt/EBITDA was just below 2.7x), and flagged a modest rise in interest expense despite a low weighted average cost of debt (~2.5%) and a ~5‑year debt maturity.Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Steady-to-good fundamentals: healthy gross margin (mid-30s historically), resilient operating earnings (2025 EBIT/EBITDA up vs. 2024 despite lower revenue), and consistently positive free cash flow. Offsets include a 2025 revenue decline and a leveraged balance sheet (debt above equity) with some net margin volatility.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded strongly from 2021–2024 (with solid growth in 2021–2022 and continued gains in 2023–2024), but 2025 revenue declined to ~20.1B (down ~3.9% YoY), suggesting a near-term demand/price-mix slowdown. Profitability is generally healthy for the sector: gross margin has been steady in the mid‑30% range (about 35–37% in 2020–2024) and operating profitability is resilient, with 2025 EBIT and EBITDA higher than 2024 despite lower revenue. The key weakness is volatility in bottom-line margin (net margin stepped down from ~9.1% in 2023 to ~6.9% in 2024), indicating some pressure from costs, interest, or taxes even as operating performance improved.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is serviceable but leveraged. Total debt remains elevated at ~11.2–11.9B over 2022–2025, with debt running above equity (debt-to-equity ~1.33–1.60 in 2022–2024). Equity has been relatively stable (~7.4–8.5B in 2022–2024; ~7.8B in 2025), supporting the capital base, and returns on equity have been solid (about 16.7% in 2024 and ~20%+ in 2022–2023). The main risk is that the business is meaningfully debt-funded, which can limit flexibility if earnings soften or rates stay higher.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength: free cash flow has been consistently positive (~1.1B to ~2.3B from 2020–2025) and generally tracks earnings well (free cash flow was ~74–84% of net income in 2021–2024). However, recent momentum weakened: 2025 operating cash flow fell to ~2.67B (from ~3.06B in 2024) and free cash flow declined to ~1.95B (about -10.7% YoY), pointing to higher working-capital needs or heavier investment. Overall cash flow quality remains good, but the latest-year dip is a watch item.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 20.08B | 20.44B | 18.30B | 17.32B | 13.76B |
| Gross Profit | 7.00B | 7.28B | 6.73B | 6.22B | 5.09B |
| EBITDA | 3.47B | 3.27B | 2.88B | 2.97B | 2.44B |
| Net Income | 1.87B | 1.42B | 1.67B | 1.51B | 982.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 29.86B | 31.10B | 29.25B | 29.31B | 29.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 956.59M | 1.71B | 2.03B | 1.64B | 1.47B |
| Total Debt | 11.22B | 11.33B | 11.40B | 11.91B | 13.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 21.56B | 22.11B | 21.28B | 21.87B | 21.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.83B | 8.49B | 7.98B | 7.45B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.95B | 2.27B | 2.13B | 2.33B | 1.77B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.67B | 3.06B | 2.81B | 2.93B | 2.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -665.65M | -1.96B | -937.00M | -645.00M | -5.61B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.55B | -973.00M | -1.82B | -2.28B | 3.29B |
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
107.75
Price Trends
93.18
Positive
91.15
Positive
90.86
Positive
Market Momentum
4.23
Negative
87.54
Negative
96.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCEP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 107.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.07, above the 50-day MA of 93.18, and above the 200-day MA of 90.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 87.54 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CCEP.
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Risk Analysis
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $83.57B | 48.70 | 25.54% | ― | 7.62% | 12.77% | |
76 Outperform | $347.15B | 26.51 | 45.97% | 2.92% | 2.93% | 25.42% | |
70 Outperform | $231.70B | 28.05 | 42.86% | 3.91% | 0.48% | -22.61% | |
69 Neutral | $48.40B | 22.36 | 24.42% | 2.52% | 9.65% | -4.26% | |
69 Neutral | $42.16B | 19.46 | 6.29% | 3.12% | 6.77% | -29.84% | |
68 Neutral | $12.99B | 27.24 | 168.34% | 0.61% | 4.22% | 22.24% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners
107.75
22.45
26.32%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
195.20
56.94
41.18%
KO
Coca-Cola
80.72
11.28
16.24%
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
31.03
-2.84
-8.40%
MNST
Monster Beverage
85.54
33.41
64.09%
PEP
PepsiCo
169.54
19.13
12.72%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.