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Coca-Cola (KO)
NYSE:KO

Coca-Cola (KO) AI Stock Analysis

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KO

Coca-Cola

(NYSE:KO)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$88.00
▲(10.22% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and a constructive earnings outlook (continued organic growth and EPS expansion with strong free cash flow guidance). Technicals remain supportive but are near-term overbought, while valuation is a modest drag due to the higher P/E despite the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Sustained high gross and net margins reflect strong pricing power, category mix and operational efficiency. These durable margins support shareholder returns, fund innovation and marketing, and provide resilience through cycles, underpinning long-term cash generation capacity.
Refranchising Strategy
Progress on refranchising transfers capital-intensive operations to local partners, converting cash and equity into higher-margin concentrate sales. This structural shift lowers capex needs, boosts capital efficiency and enables focus on brand, innovation and scalable global distribution.
Consistent Value Share Gains
Long streak of value-share gains signals durable brand strength, effective marketing and execution across channels. Persistent share growth supports pricing leverage, innovation uptake and margin sustainability, reinforcing a defendable competitive moat over time.
Negative Factors
Relatively High Financial Leverage
Elevated debt-to-equity and reported net-debt/EBITDA (~1.8x) constrain financial flexibility and increase sensitivity to higher rates or earnings shocks. Higher leverage can limit strategic optionality for M&A, buybacks or aggressive investment during downturns.
Weaker Free Cash Flow Trends
A notable decline in free cash flow growth reduces capacity to sustainably fund dividends, repurchases and reinvestment. Even with solid profitability, weaker cash conversion raises execution risk on long-term initiatives and heightens reliance on external financing.
Regional Volume Pressure
Persistent volume softness in key emerging markets and mixed performance in Europe signal structural demand headwinds that could slow top-line momentum. Prolonged regional weakness risks margin dilution and limits the ability of global initiatives to fully offset local declines.

Coca-Cola (KO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Coca-Cola Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Coca-Cola Company, a beverage company, manufactures, markets, and sells various nonalcoholic beverages worldwide. The company provides sparkling soft drinks, sparkling flavors; water, sports, coffee, and tea; juice, value-added dairy, and plant-based beverages; and other beverages. It also offers beverage concentrates and syrups, as well as fountain syrups to fountain retailers, such as restaurants and convenience stores. The company sells its products under the Coca-Cola, Diet Coke/Coca-Cola Light, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, caffeine free Diet Coke, Cherry Coke, Fanta Orange, Fanta Zero Orange, Fanta Zero Sugar, Fanta Apple, Sprite, Sprite Zero Sugar, Simply Orange, Simply Apple, Simply Grapefruit, Fresca, Schweppes, Thums Up, Aquarius, Ayataka, BODYARMOR, Ciel, Costa, Dasani, dogadan, FUZE TEA, Georgia, glacéau smartwater, glacéau vitaminwater, Gold Peak, Ice Dew, I LOHAS, Powerade, Topo Chico, AdeS, Del Valle, fairlife, innocent, Minute Maid, and Minute Maid Pulpy brands. It operates through a network of independent bottling partners, distributors, wholesalers, and retailers, as well as through bottling and distribution operators. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyCoca-Cola generates revenue primarily through the sale of its beverages across various markets. The company's revenue model is multifaceted, with key revenue streams coming from the sale of concentrate and syrup to bottling partners, who then manufacture, package, and distribute the final products. Additionally, Coca-Cola earns revenue from the sale of finished products directly to retailers, food service establishments, and vending machine operators. Strategic partnerships with bottling companies, distribution networks, and retailers are critical to Coca-Cola's success, enabling it to reach consumers effectively. The company's marketing efforts, brand equity, and innovation in product offerings further contribute to its earnings by driving consumer demand and expanding market presence.

Coca-Cola Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business units, highlighting which product lines or services are driving sales and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Chart InsightsCoca-Cola's North America segment is showing robust growth, with a consistent upward trend in recent quarters, suggesting strong domestic demand. However, the Bottling Investments segment is experiencing a notable decline, which could indicate operational challenges or strategic shifts. Meanwhile, the Europe, Middle East, and Africa segment is gaining momentum, potentially driven by market expansion efforts. The Asia Pacific and Latin America segments are relatively stable, but Global Ventures has seen a sharp drop, possibly due to divestitures or restructuring. These dynamics highlight Coca-Cola's focus on optimizing its regional strategies.
Data provided by:The Fly

Coca-Cola Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong financial and strategic progress—organic revenue growth in line with the long-term algorithm, comparable EPS inflection to $3, margin expansion, robust free cash flow, low leverage, continued brand-building (32 billion-dollar brands) and multi-market share gains. Management acknowledged near-term volume and regional softness (flat annual volume, Asia Pacific weakness, India/China variability) plus notable headwinds from currency, mix effects and divestitures, as well as the need to improve innovation speed. Guidance for 2026 balances prudence with continued investment and targets further top-line and EPS growth, reflecting confidence in execution while recognizing several manageable risks and timing impacts.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Organic Revenue and EPS Growth
Organic revenue growth of 5% in the fourth quarter; full-year organic growth in 2025 was in line with the company's long-term growth algorithm (guidance 4%-5%). Comparable EPS reached $3.00 for full-year 2025 (an inflection from ~ $2 historically) with ~4% comparable EPS growth in 2025; Q4 comparable EPS was $0.58, up 6% year-over-year despite currency headwinds.
Strong Free Cash Flow and Healthy Leverage
Free cash flow of $11.4 billion in 2025 (excluding the fairlife contingent consideration payment), up approximately $600 million versus the prior year (excluding prior IRS tax deposits). Adjusted free cash flow conversion was 93% for 2025. Net debt leverage was 1.6x EBITDA, below the company's 2.0–2.5x target range. 2026 free cash flow is guided to approximately $12.2 billion.
Margin Expansion and Pricing Actions
Comparable gross margin and comparable operating margin each expanded by approximately 50 basis points in Q4 driven by underlying expansion. Underlying pricing actions were approximately 4 percentage points (company highlights a 4% underlying price across recent quarters), with Q4 reported price/mix of 1% after mix headwinds.
Brand and Strategic Progress
Added 12 billion-dollar brands since 2017, bringing the portfolio to 32 billion-dollar brands (75% of them outside sparkling soft drinks). Trademark Coca-Cola retail sales grew by over $60 billion and remains the highest-valued food & beverage brand per Kantar. The company reported better-than-ever alignment with bottling partners and continued progress on refranchising.
Consistent Market Share Gains and Regional Wins
The company has gained value share for 19 consecutive quarters. Notable regional performance: North America gained both volume and value share (delivering growth in volume, revenue and comparable operating income) and reached ~30% operating margin in the operating unit; Latin America grew volume, revenue and comparable currency-neutral operating income (Santa Clara in Mexico became a billion-dollar brand); EMEA gained value share and grew volume and revenue; Eurasia, Middle East & Africa grew volume.
2026 Guidance Reflects Continued Growth
2026 guidance: organic revenue growth of 4%–5% (in line with long-term algorithm); comparable currency-neutral EPS growth (ex-acquisitions/divestitures) of 5%–6%; expected comparable EPS growth of 7%–8% versus $3 in 2025. Currency and divestiture assumptions included in guidance (approx. +1 point revenue FX tailwind, +3 point EPS FX tailwind; divestitures ~4-point revenue headwind, ~1-point EPS headwind).
Negative Updates
Flat Total Volume and Select Market Softness
Unit case volume was flat for full-year 2025 (Q4 unit case growth only 1%). Asia Pacific reported flat volume but declining revenue and profit during the quarter; China and several ASEAN markets showed softer consumer spending and weaker industry performance. India experienced industry and weather impacts during 2025 that weighed on volume.
Currency, Mix and Divestiture Headwinds
2025 results were negatively impacted by roughly a 5-point currency headwind to comparable EPS. Q4 had an unfavorable mix effect of ~3 percentage points that reduced reported price/mix to 1% despite ~4 points of underlying pricing actions. Planned divestitures (including the pending Coca‑Cola Beverages Africa sale) are expected to be an approximate 4-point headwind to comparable net revenues and ~1 point headwind to comparable EPS in 2026. The company also lost equity income from divesting its consolidated interest in November 2025.
Higher Tax Rate and One-Time/Timing Items
Comparable effective tax rate rose by ~2 percentage points in 2025, weighing on EPS growth. Cash flow comparability was affected by items such as the fairlife contingent consideration payment and prior-year IRS deposits. Timing of concentrate shipments and calendar day shifts (an extra day in the quarter, and a 6-day shift expected in 2026 Q1/Q4) produced volatility in reported concentrate sales and volume timing.
Innovation and Speed-to-Market Gaps
Management flagged that innovation success rates and speed to market are not yet where they need to be; the company sees a need to improve consumer-centric innovation, recruitment of younger consumers, and faster commercialization despite progress on portfolio pruning and new brand development.
Mexico Excise Tax Headwind & Consumer Pressure
Mexico implemented an excise tax at the start of the year that will create a headwind (company expects to mitigate via RGM, pack/price/channel actions and World Cup activations). Broader low-income consumer pressure in some markets (notably North America lower-income cohorts) remains a challenge for category demand.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 organic revenue growth of 4–5% and comparable currency‑neutral EPS growth (ex‑acquisitions/divestitures) of 5–6%, with all‑in comparable EPS expected to rise 7–8% versus $3 in 2025 (implying roughly $3.21–$3.24); they forecast a ~1‑point currency tailwind to comparable net revenues and ~3‑point currency tailwind to comparable EPS, partly offset by divestitures modeled as an ~4‑point headwind to comparable net revenues and ~1‑point headwind to comparable EPS (assumes Coca‑Cola Beverages sale in H2 2026), and an underlying effective tax rate of 20.9%. They expect about $12.2B of free cash flow in 2026 (≈$14.4B cash from operations less ≈$2.2B capex, ~25% of capex tied to company‑owned bottlers); 2025 adjusted FCF conversion was 93% and net debt leverage stood at 1.6x EBITDA. Management reiterated a commitment to grow the dividend (2025 dividends were 73% of adjusted FCF vs a long‑term ~75% payout), to remain opportunistic on M&A and buybacks, and noted calendar timing (Q1 +6 days, Q4 −6 days) and lost equity income from recent divestitures as timing considerations.

Coca-Cola Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability is strong with consistently high gross margins and a rising net margin, but the profile is held back by structurally elevated leverage and weaker/recently more volatile operating and free cash flow versus prior years.
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Coca-Cola shows strong and improving profitability with consistently high gross margins (~58%–62%) and a rising net margin (from ~22% in 2022 to ~27% in 2025). Revenue has grown steadily from 2021–2024 and then accelerated sharply in 2025 (per the provided growth rate), while operating profitability remains solid (~29%–36% EBIT margin range). The main watch-out is that growth rates appear volatile year-to-year (including a 2020 decline and an unusually high 2025 growth figure), which can create uncertainty around the sustainability of the latest step-up.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects meaningful leverage: debt-to-equity stays elevated (roughly ~1.4x to ~2.3x over the period), although it improves notably in 2025 versus 2024. Returns on equity are very strong (~40%+), supporting the quality of earnings and capital efficiency, and total assets trend upward over time. The key risk is that leverage remains structurally high, which can limit flexibility if operating conditions weaken or financing costs rise.
Cash Flow
62
Positive
Cash generation is positive, but weaker and more volatile in the most recent year: operating cash flow fell materially in 2024–2025 versus 2021–2023, and free cash flow declined as well (including a steep negative growth rate in 2025). Free cash flow covers a solid portion of net income (generally ~70%–89%), indicating earnings are reasonably cash-backed. However, the lower operating cash flow relative to EBIT in 2024–2025 versus prior years suggests reduced cash conversion recently, which is the primary drag on the score.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue47.94B47.06B45.75B43.00B38.66B
Gross Profit29.54B28.74B27.23B25.00B23.30B
EBITDA18.70B15.82B15.61B13.83B15.47B
Net Income13.11B10.63B10.71B9.54B9.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets104.82B100.55B97.70B92.76B94.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.87B14.57B13.66B11.63B12.63B
Total Debt45.49B45.73B43.43B40.60B44.23B
Total Liabilities70.54B74.18B70.22B66.94B69.49B
Stockholders Equity32.17B24.86B25.94B24.11B23.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.30B4.74B9.75B9.53B11.26B
Operating Cash Flow7.41B6.80B11.60B11.02B12.63B
Investing Cash Flow-67.00M2.52B-3.35B-763.00M-2.77B
Financing Cash Flow-8.14B-6.91B-8.31B-10.25B-6.79B

Coca-Cola Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price79.84
Price Trends
50DMA
72.63
Positive
100DMA
70.76
Positive
200DMA
69.70
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.07
Negative
RSI
67.18
Neutral
STOCH
75.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.41, above the 50-day MA of 72.63, and above the 200-day MA of 69.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KO.

Coca-Cola Risk Analysis

Coca-Cola disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coca-Cola reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Coca-Cola Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$81.27B46.6825.54%7.62%12.77%
76
Outperform
$341.93B26.1545.97%2.92%2.93%25.42%
70
Outperform
$39.59B25.116.29%3.12%6.77%-29.84%
70
Outperform
$3.45B18.3640.93%0.97%0.36%
70
Outperform
$224.66B27.3942.86%3.91%0.48%-22.61%
68
Neutral
$14.55B25.03168.34%0.61%4.22%22.24%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KO
Coca-Cola
79.84
10.54
15.21%
COKE
Coca-Cola Bottling Co Consolidated
182.22
44.99
32.79%
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper
29.54
-3.46
-10.49%
MNST
Monster Beverage
83.76
30.76
58.04%
FIZZ
National Beverage
37.01
-3.67
-9.02%
PEP
PepsiCo
164.94
17.34
11.75%

Coca-Cola Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Coca-Cola Reshapes Leadership to Drive Global Digital Growth
Positive
Jan 14, 2026

On January 14, 2026, The Coca-Cola Company announced a major reshaping of its operational leadership to strengthen consumer focus and accelerate digital transformation, effective March 31, 2026. The company is creating a new Chief Digital Officer role, appointing Sedef Salingan Sahin to lead end-to-end digitalization and data integration across the enterprise, while digital strategy responsibilities shift from President and CFO John Murphy to Sahin. Customer and Commercial Leadership duties will move from Murphy to Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer Manolo Arroyo, who will become Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing and Customer Commercial Officer, while Murphy remains President and CFO overseeing core corporate functions. Concurrently, Coca-Cola is reorganizing market groupings in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, with Sanket Ray assuming responsibility for India, Southwest Asia and other emerging large markets, and Claudia Lorenzo taking charge of Eurasia, the Middle East, ASEAN, South Pacific and Africa as president of the Eurasia and Middle East operating unit and Emerging Multi-Markets Lead. These moves, alongside the previously announced elevation of Henrique Braun to CEO on March 31, 2026 and the appointment of Robin Halpern as his incoming chief of staff, signal Coca-Cola’s bid to deepen regional focus, respond more nimbly to dynamic market conditions and capture growth potential in high-opportunity geographies while embedding digital capabilities at the core of its global operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (KO) stock is a Buy with a $79.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coca-Cola stock, see the KO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Coca-Cola Announces New CEO Appointment
Positive
Dec 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Coca-Cola announced that Henrique Braun will succeed James Quincey as CEO effective March 31, 2026, with Quincey transitioning to Executive Chairman. Braun, who has been with the company since 1996, will focus on leveraging technology and consumer insights to drive growth, building on Quincey’s successful transformation of Coca-Cola into a more agile and consumer-focused company.

The most recent analyst rating on (KO) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coca-Cola stock, see the KO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 11, 2026