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Citizens Financial (CFG)
NYSE:CFG

Citizens Financial (CFG) AI Stock Analysis

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CF

Citizens Financial

(NYSE:CFG)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
â–²(4.78%Upside)
Citizens Financial's overall score reflects strong financial management and strategic initiatives, bolstered by share repurchase programs. However, challenges such as potential revenue declines and overbought technical signals should be monitored. The reasonable valuation and attractive dividend yield provide a cushion against market uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Fee Income Growth
Management reaffirmed prior guidance for fee income to grow in the 8-10% y/y range.
Net Interest Margin
The company increased the high end of their medium term net interest margin guidance, benefiting from fewer rate cuts and a favorable yield environment.
Negative Factors
Capital Markets Outlook
The main driver of the estimate revision is a dampened capital markets outlook and slower loan growth recovery.
Macro Uncertainty
Macro uncertainty may continue to suppress customer activity.

Citizens Financial (CFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Citizens Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCitizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) is a prominent regional bank headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island. It operates primarily in the retail and commercial banking sectors, offering a wide range of financial products and services. These include traditional banking services such as checking and savings accounts, personal and business loans, mortgages, credit cards, and wealth management solutions. Citizens Financial serves individuals, small businesses, middle-market companies, and large corporations across its extensive branch network in the United States.
How the Company Makes MoneyCitizens Financial generates revenue primarily through interest income and non-interest income. Interest income is derived from the interest charged on loans and mortgages provided to individuals and businesses. The company also earns interest on securities it owns. Non-interest income includes fees and service charges from banking services, asset management, and investment services. Additionally, Citizens Financial benefits from its commercial banking division through treasury and cash management services. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with fintech companies and other financial institutions also play a role in enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base, contributing to its overall earnings.

Citizens Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 33.67%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strong performance in net interest margin and Private Bank growth, while acknowledging challenges posed by market uncertainty and slower-than-expected loan growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Interest Margin Expansion
Net Interest Margin (NIM) expanded by 3 basis points to 2.90%, indicating improved profitability from interest-earning assets.
Strong Private Bank Growth
The Private Bank achieved significant growth, reaching $8.7 billion in deposits and $5.2 billion in assets under management (AUM).
Successful Debt Issuance
Issued $750 million in senior debt, strengthening the funding base.
Capital and Liquidity Management
CET1 ratio of 10.6% and LDR of 77.5%, demonstrating strong capital and liquidity positions.
Share Repurchases
Completed $200 million in stock buybacks, taking advantage of strong capital position.
Negative Updates
Market Uncertainty Impact
Market uncertainty due to policy decisions and macroeconomic conditions has affected capital markets and deal activity.
Loan Growth Challenges
Potential pushout in capital markets fees and slower loan growth due to economic uncertainty.
Non-Core Loan Sale
Sale of $1.9 billion in non-core student loans with a $25 million charge-off, impacting overall loan portfolio.
Company Guidance
During the Citizens Financial Group's first-quarter 2025 earnings call, several key metrics and financial guidance points were highlighted. The company reported a net interest margin (NIM) expansion of 3 basis points to 2.90% and core loan growth of 1%. The balance sheet remains robust with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 10.6% and a loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of 77.5%. The bank is strategically selling $1.9 billion in non-core student loans and has already sold $200 million in Q1. The transaction is expected to be accretive to NIM, EPS, and ROTCE. Furthermore, the bank issued $750 million in senior debt, bolstering its funding base. The Private Bank showed significant growth, reaching $8.7 billion in deposits and $5.2 billion in assets under management (AUM). For the full year, the company reaffirmed its EPS estimate and anticipates a pickup in loan demand and deal activity in the latter half of the year, despite the current macroeconomic uncertainties. The guidance reflects potential risks from continued economic uncertainty, with possible offsets including better funding costs and share repurchases.

Citizens Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Citizens Financial has stable profitability metrics with a strong net profit margin and solid return on equity. However, revenue and free cash flow growth have declined, suggesting potential future challenges.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Citizens Financial has demonstrated stable performance in its income statement, with a consistent gross profit margin over time. The TTM shows a slight decline in total revenue compared to the previous periods, but the net profit margin remains strong at 20.12%. EBIT and EBITDA margins also indicate robust operational efficiency, although there has been a decrease in revenue compared to 2023, which may be a concern if this trend continues.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet exhibits a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50 in the TTM, reflecting a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting good asset management. However, the declining stockholders' equity over the past few periods may pose a risk if not addressed. Return on equity is solid at 4.73%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative trend from previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.23, indicating a healthy cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, pointing to potential challenges in maintaining cash reserves if this continues.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.12B12.35B12.19B9.07B6.99B7.68B
Gross Profit7.10B7.11B7.54B7.55B7.06B5.29B
EBITDA2.44B2.39B2.51B3.22B3.60B1.88B
Net Income1.55B1.51B1.61B2.07B2.32B1.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets220.15B217.52B221.96B226.73B188.41B183.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments46.32B43.85B41.70B34.59B34.90B35.43B
Total Debt12.31B12.40B13.97B15.89B7.01B8.59B
Total Liabilities195.28B193.27B197.62B203.04B164.99B160.68B
Stockholders Equity24.87B24.25B24.34B23.69B23.42B22.67B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.11B1.88B2.79B3.99B2.15B-7.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.23B2.00B2.96B4.12B2.27B111.00M
Investing Cash Flow840.00M2.99B5.25B-12.64B-10.49B-6.14B
Financing Cash Flow-2.13B-6.01B-7.13B9.91B4.64B15.37B

Citizens Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price47.72
Price Trends
50DMA
40.74
Positive
100DMA
40.70
Positive
200DMA
42.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.67
Negative
RSI
80.57
Negative
STOCH
98.35
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.75, above the 50-day MA of 40.74, and above the 200-day MA of 42.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.57 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CFG.

Citizens Financial Risk Analysis

Citizens Financial disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Citizens Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Citizens Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$25.55B13.5210.30%3.53%7.55%17.46%
KBKB
78
Outperform
$29.35B8.1610.66%2.47%-3.00%32.85%
78
Outperform
$27.47B11.9611.46%0.37%0.34%-3.13%
RFRF
76
Outperform
$22.29B11.9711.33%4.03%1.05%12.14%
KEKEY
69
Neutral
$20.23B1,663.640.14%4.44%-12.50%-120.77%
CFCFG
68
Neutral
$20.69B15.206.37%3.52%-2.37%13.92%
67
Neutral
$17.01B11.909.70%3.76%11.63%-9.47%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CFG
Citizens Financial
47.72
13.56
39.70%
FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares
2,088.73
409.01
24.35%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
17.54
5.06
40.54%
KB
Kb Financial Group
85.70
23.59
37.98%
KEY
KeyCorp
18.46
5.09
38.07%
RF
Regions Financial
24.80
5.83
30.73%

Citizens Financial Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Citizens Financial Expands Share Repurchase Program by $1.2B
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Citizens Financial Group announced an increase in its common share repurchase program to $1.5 billion, a significant rise of $1.2 billion from the previous authorization. This move reflects the company’s confidence in its financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, aiming to deliver attractive capital returns to shareholders. The repurchases will be subject to various factors, including market conditions and regulatory considerations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CFG) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Citizens Financial stock, see the CFG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Citizens Financial Reports Q1 2025 Earnings and Loan Sale
Neutral
Apr 16, 2025

Citizens Financial Group, Inc. reported a first-quarter 2025 net income of $373 million and earnings per share of $0.77. The company highlighted a strong liquidity profile with a CET1 ratio of 10.64% and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 77.5%. Key developments included an agreement to sell approximately $1.9 billion of non-core education loans, with $200 million settled in the first quarter and the remainder to settle throughout 2025. The company’s financial metrics showed a slight decline in pre-provision net revenue and net interest income, while spot deposits increased by 2% quarter-over-quarter.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025