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Citizens Financial Group (CFG)
NYSE:CFG
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Citizens Financial
(NYSE:CFG)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$72.00
â–²(13.53% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins, improving leverage, and strong free-cash-flow metrics) and a notably positive earnings-call outlook with strong 2026 growth and operating-leverage guidance plus meaningful planned buybacks. Technicals support the uptrend, but an elevated RSI signals the stock may be somewhat extended. Valuation is reasonable rather than clearly cheap, keeping the overall score in the mid-70s.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Very strong free cash flow generation and high FCF-to-net-income conversion indicate durable internal funding for dividends, share buybacks, and strategic investment. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports management's capital-return plans over the medium term.
Net Interest Income & Margin Expansion
Clear multi-quarter guidance for double-digit NII growth and sustained NIM expansion signals structural improvement in core banking margins. Rising NII, if delivered, underpins durable operating leverage, higher ROTCE targets, and a repeatable earnings base versus one-off items.
Diversified Fee Growth & Private Bank Build
A scaling private bank and record wealth/capital markets fees broaden non-interest revenue and raise fee stability. Higher-fee, higher-ROE businesses diversify earnings, reduce sensitivity to margin swings, and support medium-term profitability targets.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Trend
Material TTM revenue contraction signals pressure on the top line that may persist absent new growth drivers. Sustained revenue declines can erode operating leverage, constrain margin sustainability, and make medium-term ROTCE and payout targets harder to achieve.
Credit & CRE / Legacy Work Remain
Elevated net charge-offs and remaining CRE/legacy portfolio remediation create a credit tail that can require continued provisions and capital support. This increases earnings volatility and could limit capital deployment until workouts and reserve realization are complete.
Regulatory/Stress-Test Uncertainty
An elevated and uncertain Supervisory Capital Buffer (SCB) limits pace of buybacks and payout flexibility, forcing conservative capital management. Persistent stress-test uncertainty can delay strategic capital returns and slow achievement of targeted ROTCE.
Citizens Financial (CFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.85B
Dividend Yield2.89%
Average Volume (3M)4.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth-3.93%
EPS Growth40.62%
CountryUS
Employees17,315
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.13
Shares Outstanding429,486,200
10 Day Avg. Volume6,118,136
30 Day Avg. Volume4,383,421
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.81
Price to Sales (P/S)1.60
P/FCF Ratio10.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.25Price Target Upside12.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)5.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.07B
Citizens Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCitizens Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Citizens Bank, National Association that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals, small businesses, middle-market companies, corporations, and institutions in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Consumer Banking and Commercial Banking. The Consumer Banking segment offers deposit products, mortgage and home equity lending products, credit cards, business loans, wealth management, and investment services; and auto, education, and point-of-sale finance loans, as well as digital deposit products. This segment serves its customers through telephone service centers, as well as through its online and mobile platforms. The Commercial Banking segment provides various financial products and solutions, including lending and leasing, deposit and treasury management services, foreign exchange, and interest rate and commodity risk management solutions, as well as syndicated loans, corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, and debt and equity capital markets services. This segment serves government banking, not-for-profit, healthcare, technology, professionals, oil and gas, asset finance, franchise finance, asset-based lending, commercial real estate, private equity, and sponsor finance industries. It operates approximately 1,200 branches in 14 states and the District of Columbia; 114 retail and commercial non-branch offices in national markets; and approximately 3,300 automated teller machines. The company was formerly known as RBS Citizens Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Citizens Financial Group, Inc. in April 2014. Citizens Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1828 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.
How the Company Makes MoneyCitizens Financial generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from interest income and non-interest income. The bulk of its earnings comes from the interest spread between loans it issues and the interest it pays on deposits. This includes personal loans, auto loans, mortgages, and commercial loans. Additionally, Citizens earns non-interest income through fees for various services such as account maintenance, transaction fees, and wealth management services. Significant partnerships with technology firms enhance its digital offerings, while strategic initiatives in commercial banking and investment services also contribute to its earnings. Overall, the company's diversified revenue model and focus on customer service help sustain its profitability.
Citizens Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Breaks down revenue generated by each business segment, revealing which areas are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Breaks down revenue generated by each business segment, revealing which areas are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCitizens Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 21, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong execution and multiple areas of momentum: meaningful EPS and NII growth, record wealth performance, a rapidly scaling private bank with solid ROE, positive operating leverage, substantial non-core runoff, and a robust capital-return plan. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (NII growth 10%–12%, fees +6%–8%, expenses +4.5%) and a clear medium-term ROTCE target (16%–18%). Headwinds are present but manageable: expenses slightly above prior guidance, quarter-to-quarter fee timing volatility, one-time Reimagine costs front-loaded in 2026, ongoing CRE/legacy portfolio work, and uncertainty around SCB/stress-test modeling. Overall, the positives substantially outweigh the challenges, with management confident in execution and a path to materially higher returns over the medium term.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong EPS and Earnings Growth
Fourth-quarter EPS of $1.13, up 8% sequentially and 36% year-over-year; full-year EPS of $3.86, up 19% versus 2024.
Net Interest Income and Margin Expansion
Net interest margin expanded 7 basis points in the quarter (to ~3.07%), with NII growth guidance for 2026 of 10%–12%; Bruce/management cited NII up 9% year-over-year in remarks and full-year NII up 4% with 13 bps of margin expansion.
Wealth and Capital Markets Momentum
Fees up strongly: wealth recorded consecutive record quarters (wealth up 22% full-year underlying; Q4 wealth up 31% year-over-year underlying); capital markets delivered its third-best quarter ever (capital markets fees up ~16% year-over-year in Q4) and a strong pipeline with ~$20 million of fees carried into Q1.
Private Bank Build and Contribution
Private bank at $14.5B deposits, $7.2B loans, and $10B client assets at year-end; contributed ~$0.28 to full-year EPS (~7% of EPS) and managed to ~25% ROE for the year; management expects private bank deposits $18B–$20B, loans $11B–$13B, and client assets $16B–$20B over time.
Positive Operating Leverage and Cost Programs
Positive operating leverage of ~1.25% for the full year and sequential improvement (1.3%); Top 10 program delivered $100M+ pretax run-rate benefits exiting Q4; Reimagine the Bank targets ~$450M pretax run-rate benefits exiting 2028 (≈5% of 2025 expense base).
Improving Credit Trends and Reserves
Net charge-offs improved to 43 bps (from 46 bps prior quarter); allowance for credit losses at ~1.53%; continued reduction of CRE balances (down ~4% Q/Q and ~10% for the year) and management notes favorable credit trends and lower provisions (provision down ~$25M year-over-year).
Capital Returns and Balance Sheet Strength
Returned $1.4B (≈80% of 2025 earnings) to shareholders for the year, repurchased $600M of common stock (~3% of outstanding shares) and announced 2026 repurchase plans of ~$700M–$850M; CET1 ~10.6% and tangible book value per share up to $38.07 (+4% Q/Q, +18% Y/Y).
Non-Core Runoff and Balance Sheet Cleanup
Non-core assets reduced from $6.9B at the start of the year to $2.5B at year-end (included sale of a student loan portfolio), materially reducing drag on results.
Negative Updates
Expense Growth Above Initial Guide
Full-year expenses rose 4.6%, above the beginning-of-year guide of 4%, driven by incentive compensation and continued investments in private bank and wealth expansion; 2026 expense growth guided ~4.5% with one-time Reimagine costs.
Quarterly Fee Volatility and Deal Timing
Fees were down 2% sequentially in Q4 despite strong Y/Y performance; several M&A and equity deals were pushed into 2026 (management expects ~ $20M of related fees to shift to Q1), creating quarter-to-quarter variability and prompting management to be conservative in 2026 fee guidance (6%–8%).
One-Time Transformation Costs
Reimagine the Bank will incur approximately $50M of one-time front-loaded costs in 2026 versus $45M of benefits in the same year (net small drag in 2026), with benefits back-end loaded into 2027–2028.
CRE and Legacy Portfolios Still Being Worked Out
While CRE balances are declining, the general office portfolio and legacy swap portfolio remain sources of ongoing work and reserve management; management noted reserves and cumulative lifetime expected losses tied to March 2023 balances remain material (cumulative expected lifetime loss ~20% against March '23 loan balance).
Regulatory/Stress-Test Capital Uncertainty (SCB)
Management hopes for Federal Reserve modeling improvements to meaningfully lower their Supervisory Capital Buffer (SCB); ongoing elevated SCB and stress-test results constrain capital flexibility and factor into their CET1 target management and buyback pacing.
Net Charge-Offs Still Elevated Relative to Historic Norms
Net charge-offs at ~43 bps (improved from 46 bps prior quarter) remain above typical pre-pandemic lows and reflect ongoing credit normalization and the tail of the commercial real estate workout.
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance calls for very strong revenue and controlled expense growth: net interest income up 10–12% with NIM expanding ~4–5 bps per quarter to ~3.25% by 4Q26, spot loans +3–5% (average loans +2.5–3.5%), earning assets +4–5%, and noninterest income up 6–8% (led by wealth and capital markets); expenses are guided +4.5% (with Reimagine the Bank incurring ~$50M of one‑time costs offset by ~$45M of benefits in 2026 and targeting ~$450M pretax run‑rate benefits exiting 2028), which together imply full‑year operating leverage in excess of 500 bps and a path to mid‑50s efficiency over the medium term. Credit is expected to improve with net charge‑offs in the mid‑to‑high‑30s bps and CET1 managed to 10.5–10.6%; capital return plans include ~$700–$850M of share repurchases. Management also assumes two 25‑bp Fed cuts (June, September) with year‑end fed funds ~3.0–3.25% and the 10‑year ~4.25%, and reiterated medium‑term targets of 16–18% ROTCE (2027) with NIM 330–350 bps and private bank goals of $18–20B deposits, $11–13B loans, $16–20B client assets and a mid‑teens earnings contribution while maintaining a 20–25% ROE.Citizens Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Stable overall financial profile supported by strong operating efficiency (healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins) and very strong free cash flow growth/conversion. Balance sheet leverage has improved (lower debt-to-equity), but profitability is only moderate (ROE) and revenue growth is negative in the TTM period, which tempers the score.Income Statement
Citizens Financial shows a strong gross profit margin of 67.29% in TTM, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 15.43% from previous years, reflecting pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been negative at -7.96% TTM, suggesting challenges in maintaining revenue levels. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 19.54% and 24.69% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.41 TTM, indicating a reduction in leverage and a more stable financial position. Return on equity is moderate at 6.80%, showing reasonable profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 11.60%, reflecting a solid equity base relative to total assets, though slightly lower than industry norms.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Free cash flow growth is robust at 135.26% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 89.97%, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, limiting a full assessment of cash flow efficiency.75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.02B | 12.35B | 12.19B | 9.07B | 6.99B | 7.68B |
| Gross Profit | 7.43B | 7.11B | 7.54B | 7.55B | 7.06B | 5.29B |
| EBITDA | 2.65B | 2.39B | 2.51B | 3.22B | 3.60B | 1.88B |
| Net Income | 1.70B | 1.51B | 1.61B | 2.07B | 2.32B | 1.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 222.75B | 217.52B | 221.96B | 226.73B | 188.41B | 183.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.65B | 43.85B | 41.70B | 34.59B | 34.90B | 35.43B |
| Total Debt | 10.65B | 12.40B | 13.97B | 15.89B | 7.01B | 8.59B |
| Total Liabilities | 196.92B | 193.27B | 197.62B | 203.04B | 164.99B | 160.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.83B | 24.25B | 24.34B | 23.69B | 23.42B | 22.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.72B | 1.88B | 2.79B | 3.99B | 2.15B | -7.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.85B | 2.00B | 2.96B | 4.12B | 2.27B | 111.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.42B | 2.99B | 5.25B | -12.64B | -10.49B | -6.14B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 308.00M | -6.01B | -7.13B | 9.91B | 4.64B | 15.37B |
Citizens Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
63.42
Price Trends
57.75
Positive
54.61
Positive
48.79
Positive
Market Momentum
1.43
Negative
64.20
Neutral
56.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.99, above the 50-day MA of 57.75, and above the 200-day MA of 48.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CFG.
Citizens Financial Risk Analysis
Citizens Financial disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Citizens Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Citizens Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $24.32B | 12.06 | 11.68% | 3.74% | 4.00% | 28.54% | |
77 Outperform | $32.93B | 12.60 | 9.78% | 2.76% | -0.81% | 20.34% | |
75 Outperform | $23.12B | 14.01 | 9.48% | 3.90% | 3.86% | 5473.29% | |
75 Outperform | $33.38B | 14.29 | 12.20% | 3.14% | 0.15% | 11.62% | |
75 Outperform | $27.31B | 12.47 | 10.03% | 3.50% | 5.73% | 38.39% | |
74 Outperform | $26.85B | 16.20 | 7.24% | 2.89% | -3.93% | 40.62% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
CFG
Citizens Financial
63.42
17.56
38.29%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
50.84
7.86
18.30%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
17.43
0.90
5.46%
KEY
KeyCorp
21.46
4.60
27.31%
MTB
M&T Bank
217.49
23.03
11.84%
RF
Regions Financial
27.87
4.31
18.31%
Citizens Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Citizens Financial posts strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings growth
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Citizens Financial Group reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting an 8% sequential rise in earnings per share to $1.13 and a return on tangible common equity of 12.2%, supported by strong progress in its Private Bank, which contributed $0.10 to EPS. Pre-provision net revenue increased 4% quarter-on-quarter and 19% year-on-year to $814 million as total revenue reached $2.16 billion, driven by expanding net interest margin, higher fees in wealth management and capital markets, and improved operating efficiency, with the efficiency ratio falling to 62.2%. Loan and deposit growth remained solid, with period-end loans up 1% from the prior quarter to $142.7 billion and deposits up 2% on average, while credit quality stayed favorable with net charge-offs declining to 0.43% and strong allowance coverage of 1.53%. Citizens also underscored balance sheet strength, including a loan-to-deposit ratio of 77.8%, a CET1 ratio of 10.6% and tangible book value per share up 4% quarter-on-quarter to $38.07, reinforcing its capital and liquidity position for stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (CFG) stock is a Buy with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Citizens Financial stock, see the CFG Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Citizens Financial posts strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings growth
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. reported strong results for the fourth quarter of 2025, with net income of $528 million, up 32% year over year, and diluted EPS of $1.13, up 36% year over year, driven by expanding net interest margin, robust fee income from wealth management and capital markets, and continued progress in its Private Bank, which contributed $0.10 to EPS. The bank delivered positive operating leverage of 1.3% quarter over quarter and 5.2% year over year on an underlying basis, improved its efficiency ratio to 62.2%, and grew loans and deposits by 1% and 2% quarter over quarter respectively, while maintaining favorable credit quality with net charge-offs at 0.43%, strong allowance for credit losses coverage, solid liquidity with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 77.8%, and a CET1 ratio of 10.6%, underscoring a strengthening balance sheet and profitability profile for stakeholders over 2025, when underlying net income reached $1.8 billion and EPS $3.86, up 14% and 19% year over year.
The most recent analyst rating on (CFG) stock is a Buy with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Citizens Financial stock, see the CFG Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.