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Citizens Financial (CFG)
NYSE:CFG
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Citizens Financial
(NYSE:CFG)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
â–²(16.22% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/14/26
Overall score reflects strong forward outlook and execution signals from the latest earnings call (robust 2026 NII/fee growth guidance, operating leverage, and buybacks) plus supportive technical momentum. The main offset is mixed financial performance driven by the very weak reported 2025 cash flow metrics and 2025 revenue decline; valuation is fair with a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Wealth & Private Bank momentum
Strong, recurring fee businesses (wealth and private bank) are scaling and contributed meaningfully to EPS, diversifying revenue away from interest margins. High-return private bank (~25% ROE) and consecutive record wealth quarters support durable fee growth and margin resilience over the medium term.
Net interest income and margin expansion guidance
Management projects sustained NII and NIM improvements driven by earning-asset growth and margin expansion. If achieved, this structurally raises core bank profitability, supports operating leverage, and provides predictable cash generation capacity across 2026, underpinning medium-term earnings power.
Improving balance-sheet leverage and capital flexibility
Declining leverage and a larger equity base improve loss-absorption and strategic optionality. Combined with CET1 around 10.6% and active non-core runoff, the bank can pursue buybacks and investments while retaining capital buffers, supporting sustainable returns and capital allocation choices.
Negative Factors
Material cash-flow deterioration in 2025
A reported collapse of operating and free cash flow in 2025 materially weakens confidence in consistent cash generation. For a bank, volatile or absent cash flow limits ability to fund buybacks, dividends, and transformation investments sustainably, and raises execution risk on return targets.
Top-line weakness and revenue decline
A meaningful revenue decline reduces margin headroom and makes achieving operating-leverage targets harder. Reliance on fee and NII recovery becomes critical; if revenue growth lags, expense investments and transformation costs could compress long-term margins and slow progress toward medium-term ROTCE goals.
CRE/legacy portfolio risk and regulatory capital uncertainty
Ongoing CRE and legacy portfolio remediation and elevated net charge-offs keep credit risk elevated versus pre-pandemic norms. Combined with uncertainty around the Supervisory Capital Buffer, this constrains capital flexibility, could force higher reserves, and limits durable share-return and growth options.
Citizens Financial (CFG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.96B
Dividend Yield2.89%
Average Volume (3M)5.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.6
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth-3.93%
EPS Growth40.62%
CountryUS
Employees17,315
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.13
Shares Outstanding424,983,640
10 Day Avg. Volume4,783,377
30 Day Avg. Volume5,362,221
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.49
Price to Book (P/B)0.96
Price to Sales (P/S)2.26
P/FCF Ratio12.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$73.12Price Target Upside19.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)5.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.09B
Citizens Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCitizens Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Citizens Bank, National Association that provides retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals, small businesses, middle-market companies, corporations, and institutions in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Consumer Banking and Commercial Banking. The Consumer Banking segment offers deposit products, mortgage and home equity lending products, credit cards, business loans, wealth management, and investment services; and auto, education, and point-of-sale finance loans, as well as digital deposit products. This segment serves its customers through telephone service centers, as well as through its online and mobile platforms. The Commercial Banking segment provides various financial products and solutions, including lending and leasing, deposit and treasury management services, foreign exchange, and interest rate and commodity risk management solutions, as well as syndicated loans, corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions, and debt and equity capital markets services. This segment serves government banking, not-for-profit, healthcare, technology, professionals, oil and gas, asset finance, franchise finance, asset-based lending, commercial real estate, private equity, and sponsor finance industries. It operates approximately 1,200 branches in 14 states and the District of Columbia; 114 retail and commercial non-branch offices in national markets; and approximately 3,300 automated teller machines. The company was formerly known as RBS Citizens Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Citizens Financial Group, Inc. in April 2014. Citizens Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1828 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.
How the Company Makes MoneyCitizens Financial generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from interest income and non-interest income. The bulk of its earnings comes from the interest spread between loans it issues and the interest it pays on deposits. This includes personal loans, auto loans, mortgages, and commercial loans. Additionally, Citizens earns non-interest income through fees for various services such as account maintenance, transaction fees, and wealth management services. Significant partnerships with technology firms enhance its digital offerings, while strategic initiatives in commercial banking and investment services also contribute to its earnings. Overall, the company's diversified revenue model and focus on customer service help sustain its profitability.
Citizens Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Breaks down revenue generated by each business segment, revealing which areas are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Breaks down revenue generated by each business segment, revealing which areas are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCitizens Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 21, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong execution and multiple areas of momentum: meaningful EPS and NII growth, record wealth performance, a rapidly scaling private bank with solid ROE, positive operating leverage, substantial non-core runoff, and a robust capital-return plan. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (NII growth 10%–12%, fees +6%–8%, expenses +4.5%) and a clear medium-term ROTCE target (16%–18%). Headwinds are present but manageable: expenses slightly above prior guidance, quarter-to-quarter fee timing volatility, one-time Reimagine costs front-loaded in 2026, ongoing CRE/legacy portfolio work, and uncertainty around SCB/stress-test modeling. Overall, the positives substantially outweigh the challenges, with management confident in execution and a path to materially higher returns over the medium term.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong EPS and Earnings Growth
Fourth-quarter EPS of $1.13, up 8% sequentially and 36% year-over-year; full-year EPS of $3.86, up 19% versus 2024.
Net Interest Income and Margin Expansion
Net interest margin expanded 7 basis points in the quarter (to ~3.07%), with NII growth guidance for 2026 of 10%–12%; Bruce/management cited NII up 9% year-over-year in remarks and full-year NII up 4% with 13 bps of margin expansion.
Wealth and Capital Markets Momentum
Fees up strongly: wealth recorded consecutive record quarters (wealth up 22% full-year underlying; Q4 wealth up 31% year-over-year underlying); capital markets delivered its third-best quarter ever (capital markets fees up ~16% year-over-year in Q4) and a strong pipeline with ~$20 million of fees carried into Q1.
Private Bank Build and Contribution
Private bank at $14.5B deposits, $7.2B loans, and $10B client assets at year-end; contributed ~$0.28 to full-year EPS (~7% of EPS) and managed to ~25% ROE for the year; management expects private bank deposits $18B–$20B, loans $11B–$13B, and client assets $16B–$20B over time.
Positive Operating Leverage and Cost Programs
Positive operating leverage of ~1.25% for the full year and sequential improvement (1.3%); Top 10 program delivered $100M+ pretax run-rate benefits exiting Q4; Reimagine the Bank targets ~$450M pretax run-rate benefits exiting 2028 (≈5% of 2025 expense base).
Improving Credit Trends and Reserves
Net charge-offs improved to 43 bps (from 46 bps prior quarter); allowance for credit losses at ~1.53%; continued reduction of CRE balances (down ~4% Q/Q and ~10% for the year) and management notes favorable credit trends and lower provisions (provision down ~$25M year-over-year).
Capital Returns and Balance Sheet Strength
Returned $1.4B (≈80% of 2025 earnings) to shareholders for the year, repurchased $600M of common stock (~3% of outstanding shares) and announced 2026 repurchase plans of ~$700M–$850M; CET1 ~10.6% and tangible book value per share up to $38.07 (+4% Q/Q, +18% Y/Y).
Non-Core Runoff and Balance Sheet Cleanup
Non-core assets reduced from $6.9B at the start of the year to $2.5B at year-end (included sale of a student loan portfolio), materially reducing drag on results.
Negative Updates
Expense Growth Above Initial Guide
Full-year expenses rose 4.6%, above the beginning-of-year guide of 4%, driven by incentive compensation and continued investments in private bank and wealth expansion; 2026 expense growth guided ~4.5% with one-time Reimagine costs.
Quarterly Fee Volatility and Deal Timing
Fees were down 2% sequentially in Q4 despite strong Y/Y performance; several M&A and equity deals were pushed into 2026 (management expects ~ $20M of related fees to shift to Q1), creating quarter-to-quarter variability and prompting management to be conservative in 2026 fee guidance (6%–8%).
One-Time Transformation Costs
Reimagine the Bank will incur approximately $50M of one-time front-loaded costs in 2026 versus $45M of benefits in the same year (net small drag in 2026), with benefits back-end loaded into 2027–2028.
CRE and Legacy Portfolios Still Being Worked Out
While CRE balances are declining, the general office portfolio and legacy swap portfolio remain sources of ongoing work and reserve management; management noted reserves and cumulative lifetime expected losses tied to March 2023 balances remain material (cumulative expected lifetime loss ~20% against March '23 loan balance).
Regulatory/Stress-Test Capital Uncertainty (SCB)
Management hopes for Federal Reserve modeling improvements to meaningfully lower their Supervisory Capital Buffer (SCB); ongoing elevated SCB and stress-test results constrain capital flexibility and factor into their CET1 target management and buyback pacing.
Net Charge-Offs Still Elevated Relative to Historic Norms
Net charge-offs at ~43 bps (improved from 46 bps prior quarter) remain above typical pre-pandemic lows and reflect ongoing credit normalization and the tail of the commercial real estate workout.
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance calls for very strong revenue and controlled expense growth: net interest income up 10–12% with NIM expanding ~4–5 bps per quarter to ~3.25% by 4Q26, spot loans +3–5% (average loans +2.5–3.5%), earning assets +4–5%, and noninterest income up 6–8% (led by wealth and capital markets); expenses are guided +4.5% (with Reimagine the Bank incurring ~$50M of one‑time costs offset by ~$45M of benefits in 2026 and targeting ~$450M pretax run‑rate benefits exiting 2028), which together imply full‑year operating leverage in excess of 500 bps and a path to mid‑50s efficiency over the medium term. Credit is expected to improve with net charge‑offs in the mid‑to‑high‑30s bps and CET1 managed to 10.5–10.6%; capital return plans include ~$700–$850M of share repurchases. Management also assumes two 25‑bp Fed cuts (June, September) with year‑end fed funds ~3.0–3.25% and the 10‑year ~4.25%, and reiterated medium‑term targets of 16–18% ROTCE (2027) with NIM 330–350 bps and private bank goals of $18–20B deposits, $11–13B loans, $16–20B client assets and a mid‑teens earnings contribution while maintaining a 20–25% ROE.Citizens Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: income statement and balance sheet are solid (scores 62 and 70) with improved net margin and declining leverage, but the cash flow score is very weak (28) with operating/free cash flow shown as $0 in 2025 and revenue down ~7% in 2025—reducing confidence in near-term cash generation and growth consistency.Income Statement
Profitability remains solid for a regional bank, with 2025 net income of $1.83B and a net margin improving versus 2024 (about 16% vs. 12%). However, the top line is weakening: revenue fell ~7.2% in 2025 after modest growth in 2024, and earnings are still below the 2021–2022 peak, indicating a less favorable operating environment and more pressure on growth.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks reasonable and improving: debt-to-equity declined to ~0.43 in 2025 from ~0.67 in 2022, while equity grew to ~$26.3B. Returns are steady but not standout, with return on equity around 7% in 2025 (below 2021–2022 levels), suggesting acceptable balance-sheet strength with some profitability normalization.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow quality is the key concern. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are shown as $0 in 2025 (with free cash flow growth at -100%), a sharp drop from 2024 when operating cash flow was ~$2.0B and free cash flow ~$1.9B (close to net income). Even acknowledging banks can have volatile cash flow presentation, the reported collapse in 2025 reduces confidence in cash generation consistency based on the provided figures.28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.15B | 12.35B | 12.19B | 9.07B | 6.99B |
| Gross Profit | 7.78B | 7.11B | 7.54B | 7.55B | 7.06B |
| EBITDA | 2.69B | 2.39B | 2.51B | 3.22B | 3.60B |
| Net Income | 1.83B | 1.51B | 1.61B | 2.07B | 2.32B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 226.35B | 217.52B | 221.96B | 226.73B | 188.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.38B | 43.85B | 41.70B | 34.59B | 34.90B |
| Total Debt | 11.28B | 12.40B | 13.97B | 15.89B | 7.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 200.03B | 193.27B | 197.62B | 203.04B | 164.99B |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.32B | 24.25B | 24.34B | 23.69B | 23.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.04B | 1.88B | 2.79B | 3.99B | 2.15B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.21B | 2.00B | 2.96B | 4.12B | 2.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.97B | 2.99B | 5.25B | -12.64B | -10.49B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.88B | -6.01B | -7.13B | 9.91B | 4.64B |
Citizens Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
61.09
Price Trends
62.14
Negative
57.15
Positive
51.71
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
42.31
Neutral
32.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 61.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.77, below the 50-day MA of 62.14, and above the 200-day MA of 51.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CFG.
Citizens Financial Risk Analysis
Citizens Financial disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Citizens Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Citizens Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $32.71B | 12.77 | 9.77% | 2.76% | -0.81% | 20.34% | |
72 Outperform | $24.15B | 12.10 | 11.68% | 3.74% | 4.00% | 28.54% | |
70 Outperform | $44.95B | 14.00 | 12.20% | 3.14% | 0.15% | 11.62% | |
69 Neutral | $25.96B | 15.58 | 7.24% | 2.89% | -3.93% | 40.62% | |
69 Neutral | $34.45B | 12.11 | 10.03% | 3.50% | 5.73% | 38.39% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $22.78B | 13.63 | 9.48% | 3.90% | 3.86% | 5473.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
CFG
Citizens Financial
61.09
17.63
40.57%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
49.84
7.95
18.99%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
16.97
1.38
8.89%
KEY
KeyCorp
20.91
4.71
29.08%
MTB
M&T Bank
219.50
36.22
19.76%
RF
Regions Financial
27.97
5.77
26.00%
Citizens Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Citizens Financial completes $400 million subordinated notes offering
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Citizens Financial Group, Inc. completed a $400 million offering of 5.299% Fixed-Reset Subordinated Notes due 2036, issued under its existing indenture with The Bank of New York Mellon as trustee and sold through a syndicate led by major investment banks including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, TD Securities and Citizens JMP Securities. The notes pay a fixed 5.299% coupon until January 29, 2031, after which the rate resets every five years to the Five-Year U.S. Treasury Rate plus 1.450%, and the bank plans to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes such as share repurchases, dividends, debt repayment, subsidiary financing and potential acquisitions, underscoring an effort to optimize its capital structure and maintain financial flexibility for strategic initiatives.
The most recent analyst rating on (CFG) stock is a Buy with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Citizens Financial stock, see the CFG Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Citizens Financial posts strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings growth
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Citizens Financial Group reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting an 8% sequential rise in earnings per share to $1.13 and a return on tangible common equity of 12.2%, supported by strong progress in its Private Bank, which contributed $0.10 to EPS. Pre-provision net revenue increased 4% quarter-on-quarter and 19% year-on-year to $814 million as total revenue reached $2.16 billion, driven by expanding net interest margin, higher fees in wealth management and capital markets, and improved operating efficiency, with the efficiency ratio falling to 62.2%. Loan and deposit growth remained solid, with period-end loans up 1% from the prior quarter to $142.7 billion and deposits up 2% on average, while credit quality stayed favorable with net charge-offs declining to 0.43% and strong allowance coverage of 1.53%. Citizens also underscored balance sheet strength, including a loan-to-deposit ratio of 77.8%, a CET1 ratio of 10.6% and tangible book value per share up 4% quarter-on-quarter to $38.07, reinforcing its capital and liquidity position for stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (CFG) stock is a Buy with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Citizens Financial stock, see the CFG Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Citizens Financial posts strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings growth
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. reported strong results for the fourth quarter of 2025, with net income of $528 million, up 32% year over year, and diluted EPS of $1.13, up 36% year over year, driven by expanding net interest margin, robust fee income from wealth management and capital markets, and continued progress in its Private Bank, which contributed $0.10 to EPS. The bank delivered positive operating leverage of 1.3% quarter over quarter and 5.2% year over year on an underlying basis, improved its efficiency ratio to 62.2%, and grew loans and deposits by 1% and 2% quarter over quarter respectively, while maintaining favorable credit quality with net charge-offs at 0.43%, strong allowance for credit losses coverage, solid liquidity with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 77.8%, and a CET1 ratio of 10.6%, underscoring a strengthening balance sheet and profitability profile for stakeholders over 2025, when underlying net income reached $1.8 billion and EPS $3.86, up 14% and 19% year over year.
The most recent analyst rating on (CFG) stock is a Buy with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Citizens Financial stock, see the CFG Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.