First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.67B
• Dividend Yield: 0.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 100.43K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: -3.18%
• EPS Growth: -3.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 17,191
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 51.27
• Shares Outstanding: 11,133,974
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 89,076
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 100,427
• PEG Ratio: -0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.03
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.15
• 1Y Price Target: $2,299.56
• Price Target Upside: 14.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 178.28
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.88B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $2,208.00 ▲(9.49% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals and supportive earnings-call guidance on growth and capital return, offset by leverage/capital pressure, margin headwinds into 2026, and mixed-to-weak near-term technicals.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Growth

Sustained FCF growth (~31.7% TTM) indicates strong cash conversion that supports durable capital allocation: debt paydowns, large share repurchases, and funding of tech and branch integration without immediate reliance on external financing, improving long-term financial flexibility.

Global Fund Banking Loan Growth

Robust, repeatable loan production driven by global fund banking reflects a differentiated commercial franchise that generates stable, higher-margin loan balances and sticky client relationships, supporting recurring interest and fee income and diversifying the loan book over the medium term.

Tangible Book Value & Buybacks

Double-digit tangible book growth and aggressive buybacks signal disciplined capital allocation and management confidence in underlying economics, enhancing per-share economics and long-term ROE if earnings remain stable, while returning capital to shareholders sustainably.

Negative Factors

NII/NIM Pressure

Guidance that net interest income and margins will trough in 2026 signals a structural earnings headwind: lower rate tailwinds and reduced accretion compress core bank profitability, pressuring operating cash generation and requiring either higher fee income or cost reductions to preserve returns.

Capital Ratio Compression

Declining CET1 to ~11.15% driven by buybacks and loan growth reduces capital buffers, limiting flexibility for further repurchases or dividend increases and elevating the importance of retaining earnings or issuing capital if regulatory or stress scenarios tighten over the medium term.

Concentrated Credit Loss Risk

Persistent concentration of losses in specific commercial portfolios and guidance for elevated NCOs (35–45 bps) imply sustained credit pressure. Concentration risk can produce episodic losses, force higher reserves, and constrain risk appetite, hampering long-term loan growth and profitability if not diversified.

First Citizens BancShares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company that provides retail and commercial banking services to individuals, businesses, and professionals. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts. Its loan product portfolio comprises commercial construction and land development, commercial mortgage, commercial and industrial, and lease financing loans, as well as small business administration paycheck protection program loans; and consumer loans, such as residential and revolving mortgage, construction and land development, consumer auto, and other consumer loans. The company also offers treasury services products, cardholder and merchant services, wealth management services, and various other products and services; investment products, including annuities, discount brokerage services, and third-party mutual funds, as well as investment management and advisory services; and defined benefit and defined contribution, insurance, private banking, trust, fiduciary, philanthropy, and special asset services. The company provides its products and services through its branch network, as well as through digital banking, telephone banking, and various ATM networks. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 529 branches in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. First Citizens BancShares, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

First Citizens BancShares generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is derived from the interest earned on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and other borrowings. Key revenue streams include commercial loans, residential mortgages, and consumer loans, alongside fees from various banking services such as account maintenance, transaction services, and wealth management. The company also benefits from its investment portfolio, which contributes to its interest income. Additionally, First Citizens has established partnerships with fintech companies to enhance its digital banking capabilities, driving customer acquisition and retention, which in turn supports its overall earnings growth.

First Citizens BancShares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid profitability and cash generation (healthy net margin; strong free cash flow growth), but tempered by leverage risk (debt-to-equity 1.76) and a recent slowdown in revenue growth.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The company experienced a decline in revenue growth rate in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining revenue momentum. However, the net profit margin remains healthy at 16.02%, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid, reflecting good operational efficiency. The gross profit margin has decreased compared to previous years, which could suggest increased cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.76 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage. This could pose risks if interest rates rise or if the company faces revenue challenges. The return on equity has decreased over time, suggesting reduced profitability from shareholders' investments. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement is strong, with a notable free cash flow growth rate of 31.67% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting effective conversion of profits into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, which could imply challenges in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.53B	14.94B	12.64B	5.10B	1.90B	1.92B
Gross Profit	8.88B	9.30B	7.58B	3.98B	1.88B	1.76B
EBITDA	3.30B	3.72B	12.02B	1.90B	844.00M	751.00M
Net Income	2.33B	2.78B	11.47B	1.10B	547.00M	492.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	233.49B	223.72B	213.76B	109.30B	58.31B	49.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.90B	56.09B	54.45B	14.54B	18.66B	11.72B
Total Debt	39.02B	37.41B	38.05B	7.00B	1.78B	1.89B
Total Liabilities	211.50B	201.49B	192.50B	99.64B	53.57B	45.73B
Stockholders Equity	21.99B	22.23B	21.25B	9.66B	4.74B	4.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.03B	1.45B	1.23B	1.86B	-391.00M	243.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.99B	2.99B	2.66B	2.79B	-284.00M	376.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.98B	-10.15B	2.43B	75.00M	-7.57B	-9.91B
Financing Cash Flow	10.00B	7.07B	-4.70B	-2.69B	7.83B	9.52B

First Citizens BancShares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2016.58
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCNCA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2016.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2059.43, below the 50-day MA of 2108.39, and above the 200-day MA of 1944.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -18.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FCNCA.

First Citizens BancShares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RF	81 Outperform	$26.36B	13.07	11.68%	3.74%	4.00%	28.54%
FCNCA	69 Neutral	$24.67B	12.46	9.92%	0.37%	-3.18%	-3.10%
HBAN	69 Neutral	$36.31B	12.90	10.03%	3.50%	5.73%	38.39%
KB	69 Neutral	$41.19B	10.56	10.33%	2.79%	-4.64%	24.98%
CFG	69 Neutral	$27.64B	16.83	7.24%	2.89%	-3.93%	40.62%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SHG	65 Neutral	$33.52B	9.70	―	2.86%	-4.88%	4.84%

First Citizens BancShares Corporate Events

First Citizens BancShares Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results

First Citizens BancShares reported solid fourth-quarter 2025 performance, with net income rising to $580 million and adjusted net income reaching $648 million as loan growth—especially in its Global Fund Banking franchise—offset modest pressure on net interest margin. The bank returned $900 million to shareholders via buybacks, prepaid $2.5 billion of a Purchase Money Note largely funded by securities runoff, and managed a slight decline in total deposits alongside stable funding and credit quality, while integrating SVB Commercial into its Commercial Bank segment and absorbing higher technology, personnel and marketing costs as it scales its platforms.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCNCA) stock is a Buy with a $2390.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Citizens BancShares stock, see the FCNCA Stock Forecast page.

First Citizens BancShares Announces Chief Risk Officer Transition

On Jan. 14, 2026, First Citizens BancShares announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer Lorie K. Rupp will retire effective June 1, 2026, after a 13-year tenure at the bank and more than 30 years in financial services, during which she strengthened the company’s risk management framework through a period of significant growth. The company plans for current Treasurer and 20-year bank veteran Tom Eklund, who has extensive experience in capital, market, liquidity and compliance risk management, to succeed her as Chief Risk Officer, signaling a continuity-focused transition designed to preserve a robust risk governance structure and support the bank’s long-term strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCNCA) stock is a Buy with a $2427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Citizens BancShares stock, see the FCNCA Stock Forecast page.

First Citizens BancShares Closes Series D Preferred Stock Offering

On November 14, 2025, First Citizens BancShares, Inc. filed a certificate of designation for a new series of preferred stock, the 7.000% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series D. This filing was part of an underwriting agreement with major financial institutions. The company closed a public offering of 500,000 depositary shares on November 18, 2025, each representing a 1/100th interest in a share of the Series D Preferred Stock. The Series D Preferred Stock offers a 7% annual dividend rate until December 2030 and then adjusts based on the five-year treasury rate plus 3.301%. This move is significant for First Citizens BancShares as it enhances their capital structure and could impact their market positioning by offering attractive returns to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCNCA) stock is a Hold with a $2190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Citizens BancShares stock, see the FCNCA Stock Forecast page.