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Keycorp (KEY)
NYSE:KEY
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KeyCorp
(NYSE:KEY)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
â–²(4.34% Upside)
KeyCorp's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and stable financials, offset by bearish technical indicators and valuation concerns. The company's revenue growth and strategic investments are positive, but profitability and market momentum pose challenges.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
KeyCorp's 21% revenue growth reflects strong market demand and effective business strategies, indicating a robust market position and potential for sustained growth.
Investment Banking Success
The success in investment banking demonstrates KeyCorp's strong capabilities in capital markets, enhancing its competitive advantage and diversifying revenue streams.
Improved Credit Quality
Improved credit quality reduces risk and enhances financial stability, supporting long-term profitability and trust with stakeholders.
Negative Factors
Profitability Pressure
Low profitability margins indicate challenges in cost management and pricing power, potentially impacting long-term financial health and investor confidence.
Increased Expenses
Rising expenses, particularly in personnel and technology, could strain margins and affect profitability if not matched by revenue growth.
Potential Deposit Competition
Increased deposit competition may pressure pricing strategies, affecting net interest margins and profitability in the long term.
KeyCorp (KEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.25B
Dividend Yield4.62%
Average Volume (3M)28.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)1663.6
Beta (1Y)1.44
Revenue Growth-12.30%
EPS Growth-108.78%
CountryUS
Employees16,989
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.41
Shares Outstanding1,096,515,900
10 Day Avg. Volume26,072,444
30 Day Avg. Volume28,175,810
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda205.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside18.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKeyCorp (KEY) is a bank holding company headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, providing a wide range of financial services through its subsidiary, KeyBank. The company operates primarily in the commercial banking sector, offering services such as personal banking, small business banking, corporate banking, investment management, and wealth management. KeyCorp serves clients across various sectors, including individuals, businesses, and institutions, with a focus on delivering tailored financial solutions and enhancing customer experiences.
How the Company Makes MoneyKeyCorp generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is derived from the difference between the interest earned on loans and securities and the interest paid on deposits and other borrowings. The company offers various loan products, including personal loans, mortgages, and commercial loans, which constitute a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, KeyCorp earns non-interest income through fees for services such as wealth management, investment banking, and deposit account services. KeyCorp also engages in mortgage banking and capital markets activities, contributing to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with fintech companies and other financial institutions enhance its product offerings and customer reach, further driving revenue growth.
KeyCorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 16, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:Jan 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong financial performance and strategic growth, particularly in revenue, fee income, and asset quality metrics. The capital position remains robust, providing flexibility for future initiatives. However, there were challenges related to expense management and slower growth in certain segments such as consumer loans and middle market M&A activity.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenues and Growth in Fee Income
Revenues, adjusting for last year's securities portfolio repositioning, grew 17%. Fee income increased in the high single digits compared to 2024, both for the quarter and on a year-to-date basis.
Net Interest Margin and Asset Quality Improvements
Achieved a 2.75% Net Interest Margin (NIM) for the quarter, reaching the year-end target ahead of schedule. Asset quality metrics improved, with NPAs and criticized loans declining.
Strong Capital Position
Reported CET1 capital ratio approached 12% at quarter-end, providing flexibility and optionality for the future.
Wealth Management and Commercial Growth
Assets under management reached a record $68 billion. Relationship households and commercial clients grew by about 2% this year.
Investment Banking Success
Raised $50 billion in capital for clients in the third quarter, retaining 15% on the balance sheet. The M&A pipeline is significantly up, contributing to a strong outlook for the investment banking division.
Negative Updates
Moderate Expense Growth
Non-interest expenses increased by 7% year over year, driven by higher personnel expenses and technology investments.
Consumer Loan Runoff
Planned runoff of about $600 million in low-yielding consumer loans, impacting the overall loan growth.
Decline in Middle Market M&A Activity
Middle market M&A volumes remain tepid, although there is an encouraging pickup in strategic dialogue.
Company Guidance
During the KeyCorp Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported several key metrics and provided guidance for the coming periods. They announced an earnings per share of 41¢ and a return on assets exceeding 1%. Pre-provision net revenue increased by $33 million or 5% quarter over quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of improvement. Adjusted revenues grew by 17% from the previous year, and fee income rose in the high single digits compared to 2024. The net interest margin (NIM) reached 2.75%, meeting the year-end target ahead of schedule. KeyCorp plans to repurchase approximately $100 million of common stock in the fourth quarter. They aim for a return on tangible common equity of 15% or better by 2027, with a target NIM of 3.25% or greater. The bank also reported a robust 11.8% CET1 ratio, with commercial pipelines nearly doubling since the previous year. Additionally, they expect full-year net interest income growth of about 22% and fee growth between 5-6%.KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
KeyCorp's financial health is stable with signs of recovery in revenue and profit margins. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage and improved ROE, while cash flow metrics highlight effective cash management. However, historical volatility in profits and equity levels requires attention.Income Statement
The Income Statement shows mixed results. There is a slight revenue growth of 0.66% from 2024 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), but revenue has declined from its peak in 2023. Gross Profit Margin stands at 47% in the TTM, indicating efficiency in generating profit from sales. However, the company is facing challenges with profitability as seen in the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, though net income has improved from a loss in 2024 to a small profit in TTM.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The Balance Sheet is relatively strong with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.78, suggesting moderate leverage. The Equity Ratio is 10.08%, indicating a decent portion of assets are financed by equity. Return on Equity (ROE) has improved to 0.13% in the TTM, showing a recovery in profitability. However, the overall equity base has fluctuated, which could pose a risk if not stabilized.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash Flow metrics show some positive trends. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 6.6 in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to profits. Free Cash Flow has decreased compared to 2024, but remains positive. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 4.08, signifying good cash flow management despite lower earnings.75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.19B | 9.05B | 10.23B | 7.91B | 7.33B | 7.14B |
| Gross Profit | 4.55B | 4.06B | 5.73B | 6.52B | 7.46B | 5.47B |
| EBITDA | 170.00M | -233.00M | 1.31B | 2.50B | 3.29B | 1.67B |
| Net Income | 176.00M | -161.00M | 967.00M | 1.92B | 2.63B | 1.34B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 185.50B | 187.17B | 188.28B | 189.81B | 186.35B | 170.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.62B | 22.51B | 48.94B | 42.44B | 57.29B | 44.84B |
| Total Debt | 14.84B | 14.25B | 22.64B | 28.77B | 12.80B | 14.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 166.01B | 168.99B | 173.64B | 176.36B | 168.92B | 152.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.48B | 18.18B | 14.64B | 13.45B | 17.42B | 17.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.54B | 599.00M | 2.76B | 4.36B | 1.09B | 1.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.62B | 664.00M | 2.90B | 4.47B | 1.15B | 1.67B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.48B | 2.50B | 1.42B | -10.93B | -15.07B | -24.72B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.66B | -2.36B | -4.27B | 6.44B | 13.74B | 23.41B |
KeyCorp Technical Analysis
Negative
17.73
Price Trends
18.48
Negative
17.76
Negative
16.77
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.25
Positive
39.84
Neutral
31.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.45, below the 50-day MA of 18.48, and above the 200-day MA of 16.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KEY.
KeyCorp Risk Analysis
KeyCorp disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. KeyCorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
KeyCorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $8.60B | 12.14 | 11.60% | 1.52% | 4.74% | 10.10% | |
73 Outperform | $23.76B | 12.07 | 10.43% | 3.82% | 6.06% | 28.03% | |
73 Outperform | $21.92B | 11.45 | 11.59% | 4.10% | 2.94% | 20.85% | |
72 Outperform | $28.41B | 13.36 | 11.58% | 3.52% | 1.90% | 2.87% | |
71 Outperform | $21.68B | 15.32 | 6.71% | 3.25% | -3.70% | 40.62% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $19.25B | 1,663.64 | 1.02% | 4.62% | -12.30% | -108.78% |
* Financial Sector Average
KEY
KeyCorp
17.73
1.27
7.72%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
42.92
-0.84
-1.92%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
16.21
1.36
9.16%
RF
Regions Financial
24.74
1.73
7.52%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
128.05
12.86
11.16%
CFG
Citizens Financial
51.70
11.17
27.56%
KeyCorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
KeyCorp to Present at Morgan Stanley Conference
Positive
Jun 10, 2025
KeyCorp announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference on June 11, 2025, where it will review its performance, strategy, and outlook. The company has been expanding its commercial banking operations, emphasizing growth in commercial payments and middle-market services, which are supported by a robust fintech ecosystem. This strategic focus is expected to enhance KeyCorp’s market positioning and provide significant growth opportunities.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.