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KeyCorp
(NYSE:KEY)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(14.79% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/21/26
KEY scores 74 driven primarily by improving financial performance (rebound in revenue, profitability, and strong cash conversion) and a constructive earnings call with raised 2026 guidance and continued buybacks. Technicals also support the score with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is reasonable (mid-teens P/E and ~3.5% yield). The main constraint is elevated volatility in results (notably 2024) and the recent uptick in leverage/credit metrics (NPAs), which adds execution and cycle sensitivity.
Positive Factors
Growing fee-based businesses and wealth AUM
Record wealth AUM and accelerating payments fees reflect durable, capital-light revenue streams that diversify earnings beyond interest margins. Scaled wealth and payments adoption increases fee predictability, supports cross-sell, and reduces sensitivity to rate cycles over a multi-quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
Uptick in nonperforming assets and charge-offs
Higher NPAs and elevated annualized net charge-offs indicate emerging asset-quality stress in specific sectors. If idiosyncratic issues persist or broaden, provisioning and earnings could be pressured, constraining capital generation and increasing cycle sensitivity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Growing fee-based businesses and wealth AUM
Record wealth AUM and accelerating payments fees reflect durable, capital-light revenue streams that diversify earnings beyond interest margins. Scaled wealth and payments adoption increases fee predictability, supports cross-sell, and reduces sensitivity to rate cycles over a multi-quarter horizon.
Read all positive factors
KeyCorp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Assets by Segment
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeyCorp (KEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.45B
Dividend Yield3.64%
Average Volume (3M)11.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth18.88%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees17,883
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.64
Shares Outstanding1,079,368,700
10 Day Avg. Volume11,600,897
30 Day Avg. Volume11,091,730
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.62Price Target Upside17.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)1.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.06B
KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Its operations are distinctly segmented into a Consumer Bank and a Commer...
How the Company Makes Money
KeyCorp primarily makes money through a mix of net interest income and noninterest (fee-based) income. Net interest income is earned from the spread between interest received on earning assets—such as commercial and industrial loans, commercial re...
KeyCorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong core operating performance: double-digit EPS growth, raised guidance for loans and NII, robust loan growth concentrated in higher-credit-quality commercial clients, record wealth AUM, meaningful fee momentum in payments and wealth, and continued capital returns (share repurchases). Offsetting these positives were a smaller-than-expected NIM improvement driven by timing and mix effects, modestly higher NPAs tied to a few idiosyncratic credits, and some volatility in investment banking fees and servicing income. Management provided clear explanations for the shortfalls, raised full-year targets, and reiterated multi-year ROTCE targets, suggesting confidence in execution despite near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong EPS and Revenue Growth
Reported Q2 EPS of $0.44, up 26% year-over-year; revenue grew 7% YoY and pre-provision net revenue grew 9% YoY.
Negative Updates
NIM Performance Shortfall and Funding Mix
Although NIM expanded sequentially to 2.89%, it was weaker than some expectations. Management cited mix effects: stronger loan growth concentrated in higher-quality (tighter spread) loans, a ~4 bp decline in overnight SOFR, seasonal low deposits in late May, and interim use of short-term wholesale funding. Total funding costs rose 1 bp in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EPS and Revenue Growth
Reported Q2 EPS of $0.44, up 26% year-over-year; revenue grew 7% YoY and pre-provision net revenue grew 9% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Key raised 2026 guidance across several metrics: revenue is now expected to grow 7–8% and tax‑equivalent net interest income 9–11%, with net interest margin targeted to exit 2026 at 3.00–3.05% (management on track to meet or exceed 3%); average earning assets are expected to increase $1–2 billion from Q2, average loans to rise 4–5% (commercial loans 8–10%), and average client deposits to grow >2% through year‑end. Management cites >$9 billion of low‑yield fixed‑asset repricing in H2 (≈1.25% pickup) and expects revenue to grow ~2x expenses (full‑year expense growth guide 3–4%), while Q2 net charge‑offs were 42 bps with a full‑year NCO outlook of 40–45 bps; Q2 nonperforming assets annualized 74 bps. Capital and other targets include CET1 11.2% (marked CET1 9.8%), at least $1.3 billion of share repurchases (Q2 repurchases >$340M), commercial mortgage servicing fees ~$50–60M/quarter, tangible book value per share +6% YoY, and a path to >15% ROTCE by end‑2027 (16–19% long‑term).KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.22B | 11.19B | 9.05B | 10.23B | 7.91B | 7.33B |
| Gross Profit | 7.20B | 6.97B | 4.06B | 5.73B | 6.52B | 7.46B |
| EBITDA | 2.51B | 2.32B | -233.00M | 1.31B | 2.50B | 3.29B |
| Net Income | 1.95B | 1.83B | -161.00M | 967.00M | 1.92B | 2.63B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 188.66B | 184.38B | 187.17B | 188.28B | 189.81B | 186.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.75B | 11.45B | 22.51B | 48.94B | 42.44B | 57.29B |
| Total Debt | 17.06B | 11.00B | 14.25B | 22.64B | 28.77B | 12.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 168.68B | 164.00B | 168.99B | 173.64B | 176.36B | 168.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.99B | 20.38B | 18.18B | 14.64B | 13.45B | 17.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.18B | 2.10B | 599.00M | 2.76B | 4.36B | 1.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.29B | 2.21B | 664.00M | 2.90B | 4.47B | 1.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -662.00M | 3.22B | 2.50B | 1.42B | -10.93B | -15.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.40B | -5.88B | -2.36B | -4.27B | 6.44B | 13.74B |
KeyCorp Technical Analysis
Negative
22.65
Price Trends
22.37
Positive
21.47
Positive
20.43
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Positive
45.75
Neutral
16.17
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.16, above the 50-day MA of 22.37, and above the 200-day MA of 20.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KEY.
KeyCorp Risk Analysis
KeyCorp disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. KeyCorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
KeyCorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $26.34B | 12.44 | 11.79% | 3.43% | 0.18% | 14.72% | |
76 Outperform | $10.70B | 12.56 | 12.33% | 1.32% | 5.67% | 17.55% | |
76 Outperform | $30.40B | 15.49 | 8.14% | 2.50% | 1.55% | 40.55% | |
74 Outperform | $24.45B | 13.09 | 10.12% | 3.62% | 18.88% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $52.03B | 19.40 | 8.43% | 2.79% | 17.75% | -8.65% | |
71 Outperform | $35.19B | 12.76 | 8.58% | 3.57% | 18.75% | -3.57% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
KEY
KeyCorp
22.51
4.82
27.24%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
57.00
15.87
38.57%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
17.16
1.12
7.00%
RF
Regions Financial
30.74
5.45
21.56%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
158.88
28.86
22.19%
CFG
Citizens Financial
71.10
23.32
48.79%
KeyCorp Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
KeyCorp Updates Medium-Term Note Program for Flexibility
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On June 10, 2026, KeyCorp updated its Medium-Term Note Program, enabling the company to issue Senior Medium-Term Notes, Series U, and Subordinated Medium-Term Notes, Series V, under existing senior and subordinated indentures with Deutsche Bank Tr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
KeyCorp Updates Segment Reporting for Interest Rate Risk
Neutral
Jun 3, 2026
KeyCorp has recast its 2025 segment financial information to reflect a change in how it presents centrally managed interest rate risk, effective January 1, 2026, shifting the residual impact into its Other segment from the Consumer and Commercial ...
Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
KeyCorp Raises 2026 Outlook, Expands Share Repurchase Plans
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, KeyCorp released an investor presentation outlining its progress and plans to use a relationship-based, fee-heavy model to drive profitable growth and improve returns. The bank highlighted structural net interest income tailwinds,...
Shareholder MeetingsStock BuybackDividends
KeyCorp Board Actions and New Shareholder Return Program
Positive
May 14, 2026
At its recent annual meeting, KeyCorp shareholders elected all 14 board nominees, ratified Ernst Young LLP as independent auditor for fiscal 2026, approved executive compensation on an advisory basis, and endorsed the KeyCorp 2026 Equity Compensa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.