Keycorp (KEY)
NYSE:KEY
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KeyCorp
(NYSE:KEY)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$22.50
â–²(8.91% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/24/26
The score is led by improving fundamentals and a strong, guidance-backed earnings narrative (rising NII/NIM, operating leverage, and sizable planned buybacks), supported by reasonable valuation with a solid dividend yield. Offsetting this is the company’s uneven multi-year financial consistency (including 2024 losses and volatile cash flow) and currently weak-to-mixed technical positioning versus short-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Record revenue and rising NII
Sustained top-line recovery and materially higher net interest income in 2025 reflect structural earnings power as rates and loan mix improve. Record revenue reduces reliance on one-offs, supports recurring profitability and funds capital return and reinvestment over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Multi-year profitability and cash volatility
Historical swings from strong margins to a 2024 loss and volatile free cash flow growth imply sensitivity to credit cycles, rate shifts, and one-time items. This unevenness weakens predictability of earnings and cash available for lending, reserves, and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record revenue and rising NII
Sustained top-line recovery and materially higher net interest income in 2025 reflect structural earnings power as rates and loan mix improve. Record revenue reduces reliance on one-offs, supports recurring profitability and funds capital return and reinvestment over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
KeyCorp (KEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.51B
Dividend Yield3.9%
Average Volume (3M)17.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)1.31
Revenue Growth3.86%
EPS Growth5473.29%
CountryUS
Employees16,989
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding1,089,647,500
10 Day Avg. Volume14,832,060
30 Day Avg. Volume17,538,831
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.35Price Target Upside13.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)1.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.04B
KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company of...
How the Company Makes Money
KeyCorp generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is derived from the interest earned on loans and securities, minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings...
KeyCorp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Assets by Segment
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeyCorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum with record revenue, expanded NII/NIM, meaningful operating leverage, improving credit metrics, and a clear plan to return capital to shareholders (accelerated buybacks). Management provided constructive 2026 guidance while signaling conservative assumptions around investment banking fees and continued payouts of capital, and it highlighted several watch areas (consumer runoff, certain sector exposures, elevated one-time expenses and capital consumption for buybacks). Overall, positives materially outweigh the highlighted risks, though execution on deposit remixing, sustaining M&A fee momentum, and capital management will be important to monitor.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Fourth-quarter revenue exceeded $2.0 billion, growing 12% year-over-year (adjusted). Full-year 2025 record revenue increased 16% versus prior year.
Negative Updates
Conservative Investment Banking Fee Guidance and Visibility Risks
Management characterized its 2026 investment banking fee outlook as conservative due to limited visibility beyond early 2026; investment banking hires were modest (~5%), and management emphasized uncertainty in sustaining middle-market M&A momentum past the first quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Fourth-quarter revenue exceeded $2.0 billion, growing 12% year-over-year (adjusted). Full-year 2025 record revenue increased 16% versus prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenue to increase about 7%, driven by net interest income growth of 8–10% (tax‑equivalent) with an NIM objective of roughly 3.0%+ by Q4 2026 (and 3.25%+ in 2027) and an expected NII exit run‑rate of ~$1.3B+, non‑interest income to grow ~3–4% (5–6% adjusted for certain business decisions) with investment banking fees ~+5%, wealth fees in the high single digits and commercial‑payments fees in the low double digits, average loans up ~1–2% (commercial loans ~+5%), expenses up ~3–4% (about half the revenue growth) implying ~300–400 bps of operating leverage, a full‑year net charge‑off ratio of 40–45 bps, a taxable‑equivalent tax rate of ~22–23%, and an amplified capital return plan (repurchased $200M in Q4 at ~$18/sh and will repurchase at least $300M in Q1 and ≥$1.2B in 2026), while managing marked CET1 (10.3% quarter‑end; reported CET1 11.7%) toward the higher end of its 9.5–10% target range by 2026.KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.19B | 9.05B | 10.23B | 7.91B | 7.33B |
| Gross Profit | 6.97B | 4.06B | 5.73B | 6.52B | 7.46B |
| EBITDA | 2.32B | -233.00M | 1.31B | 2.50B | 3.29B |
| Net Income | 1.83B | -161.00M | 967.00M | 1.92B | 2.63B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 184.38B | 187.17B | 188.28B | 189.81B | 186.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.45B | 22.51B | 48.94B | 42.44B | 57.29B |
| Total Debt | 11.00B | 14.25B | 22.64B | 28.77B | 12.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 164.00B | 168.99B | 173.64B | 176.36B | 168.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.38B | 18.18B | 14.64B | 13.45B | 17.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.10B | 599.00M | 2.76B | 4.36B | 1.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.21B | 664.00M | 2.90B | 4.47B | 1.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.22B | 2.50B | 1.42B | -10.93B | -15.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.88B | -2.36B | -4.27B | 6.44B | 13.74B |
KeyCorp Technical Analysis
Positive
20.66
Price Trends
20.73
Negative
20.16
Positive
18.92
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
58.82
Neutral
93.38
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.64, below the 50-day MA of 20.73, and above the 200-day MA of 18.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KEY.
KeyCorp Risk Analysis
KeyCorp disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. KeyCorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
KeyCorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $9.44B | 11.37 | 11.71% | 1.40% | 3.58% | 13.93% | |
72 Outperform | $23.09B | 11.00 | 11.45% | 3.74% | 4.00% | 28.54% | |
69 Neutral | $32.35B | 11.61 | 10.06% | 3.50% | 5.73% | 38.39% | |
69 Neutral | $26.10B | 11.93 | 7.16% | 2.89% | -3.93% | 40.62% | |
68 Neutral | $42.89B | 12.33 | 11.96% | 3.14% | 0.15% | 11.62% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $22.51B | 11.08 | 9.26% | 3.90% | 3.86% | 5473.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
KEY
KeyCorp
20.66
8.01
63.32%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
47.56
15.30
47.42%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
15.94
3.91
32.54%
RF
Regions Financial
26.74
9.15
51.98%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
140.34
46.66
49.80%
CFG
Citizens Financial
61.41
28.22
85.05%
KeyCorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
KeyCorp Issues $750 Million Fixed-to-Floating Senior Notes
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, KeyCorp issued $750 million aggregate principal amount of 5.305% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Medium Term Notes, Series S, due January 28, 2037, as part of its ongoing funding strategy in the capital markets. The registered i...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
KeyCorp announces board changes and stronger quarterly results
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
On January 15, 2026, KeyCorp directors Ruth Ann Gillis and Carlton Highsmith notified the board that they will retire at the end of their terms at the 2026 annual shareholder meeting, prompting the board’s January 20, 2026 decision to nomina...
Executive/Board Changes
KeyCorp director retires, board size reduced to 14
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
On January 13, 2026, KeyCorp announced that director David K. Wilson retired from its Board of Directors for personal health reasons, marking a change in the company’s governance structure. Following his departure, the Board approved a reduc...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
KeyCorp Registers Shares Issued to Bank of Nova Scotia
Neutral
Dec 23, 2025
On December 23, 2025, KeyCorp filed a prospectus supplement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register 161,968,762 common shares that had been issued to The Bank of Nova Scotia under an investment agreement dated August 12, 2024....
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
KeyCorp Highlights Strong 2025 Performance at Conference
Positive
Dec 9, 2025
On December 9, 2025, KeyCorp released an investor presentation in conjunction with the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference. The presentation highlighted KeyCorp’s strong financial performance, including a record revenue year in 2025,...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
KeyCorp Subsidiary to Redeem Senior Bank Notes
Neutral
Nov 25, 2025
On November 25, 2025, KeyCorp announced that its subsidiary, KeyBank National Association, issued a redemption notice to redeem all outstanding 4.700% Fixed Rate Senior Bank Notes due January 26, 2026, on December 29, 2025. This strategic move inv...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.