Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Keycorp (KEY)
NYSE:KEY
Top Page
KeyCorp
(NYSE:KEY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$23.50
â–²(9.51% Upside)
Overall score reflects improving fundamentals (recovery in revenue/profitability, reduced leverage, and strong free cash flow growth) and supportive technicals (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The score is tempered by a relatively elevated P/E despite an attractive dividend yield, while the latest earnings call adds support through upbeat NIM and growth guidance but flags expense and consumer-loan headwinds.
Positive Factors
Revenue Recovery
Sustained TTM revenue growth and a restored positive net margin indicate a multi-quarter recovery in core banking operations. This improves earnings resilience across cycles, supports reinvestment and shareholder returns, and signals durable improvement in business momentum beyond transient effects.
NIM and Asset Quality Strength
Reaching the NIM target early while improving asset quality materially boosts structural net interest income and lowers credit volatility. Higher core margins and fewer problem loans provide lasting earnings power and greater capital flexibility to pursue growth or return excess capital to shareholders.
Wealth & Fee Business Scale
A record AUM base and growing fee income diversify revenue away from pure interest spread. Recurring, fee-based revenues tend to be less cyclically sensitive, supporting margin stability, cross-sell opportunities, and customer stickiness that enhance long-term profitability and strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Expense Growth
Sustained mid-single-digit expense growth, especially in personnel and technology, can erode operating leverage gains if revenue growth slows. Persistent cost inflation requires disciplined expense control to protect margins and deliver targeted returns on tangible equity over the medium term.
Consumer Loan Runoff
A structural runoff of low-yield consumer loans reduces balance-sheet diversity and near-term interest-earning assets. While it can improve NIM, it also limits cross-sell and retail deposit franchise growth, requiring sustained commercial loan and fee expansion to replace lost scale sustainably.
Weak Operating Cash Conversion
Very low operating cash conversion versus reported earnings suggests accrual-driven profits and potential working capital timing issues. Persistent weak cash conversion can constrain organic funding for loans, investments, buybacks, and dividends, undermining long-term financial flexibility.
KeyCorp (KEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.12B
Dividend Yield3.9%
Average Volume (3M)12.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth3.86%
EPS Growth5473.29%
CountryUS
Employees16,989
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding1,085,908,400
10 Day Avg. Volume15,120,606
30 Day Avg. Volume12,766,385
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.55Price Target Upside9.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.04B
KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits, investment products and services; and personal finance and financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, lending, credit card, treasury, business advisory, wealth management, asset management, investment, cash management, portfolio management, and trust and related services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses. It also provides a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance, as well as commercial mortgage loans comprising consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology loans for middle market clients. In addition, the company offers community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of approximately 999 branches and 1,317 ATMs in 15 states, as well as additional offices, online and mobile banking capabilities, and a telephone banking call center. KeyCorp was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyKeyCorp generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is derived from the interest earned on loans and securities, minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. This constitutes a significant portion of its overall revenue. Additionally, KeyCorp earns non-interest income through fees charged for services such as wealth management, investment banking, and trust services, as well as transaction fees from payment processing. The company also benefits from partnerships with various financial institutions and technology companies, enhancing its service offerings and operational efficiency. Factors such as the economic environment, interest rate fluctuations, and regulatory changes can also impact its earnings.
KeyCorp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Assets by Segment
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeyCorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum with record revenue, expanded NII/NIM, meaningful operating leverage, improving credit metrics, and a clear plan to return capital to shareholders (accelerated buybacks). Management provided constructive 2026 guidance while signaling conservative assumptions around investment banking fees and continued payouts of capital, and it highlighted several watch areas (consumer runoff, certain sector exposures, elevated one-time expenses and capital consumption for buybacks). Overall, positives materially outweigh the highlighted risks, though execution on deposit remixing, sustaining M&A fee momentum, and capital management will be important to monitor.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Fourth-quarter revenue exceeded $2.0 billion, growing 12% year-over-year (adjusted). Full-year 2025 record revenue increased 16% versus prior year.
Earnings Per Share and Net Interest Income
Reported Q4 EPS was $0.43 ($0.41 adjusted). Tax-equivalent net interest income was up 15% year-over-year in Q4 and full-year NII increased ~23% versus original expectations.
Net Interest Margin Expansion
Exited the quarter with NIM of 2.82%, up 7 basis points sequentially and above the prior target range (2.75%–2.80%). Management expects NIM to reach ~3.00%–3.05% by end of 2026 and 3.25%+ in 2027.
Strong Operating Leverage and PPNR Growth
Full-year operating leverage of approximately 1,200 basis points and PPNR growth of about 44% in 2025, with expenses growing 4.6% for the year while revenue rose 16%.
Loan and Deposit Dynamics
Full-year C&I loan growth of 9%; spot commercial loans rose roughly $1.0–1.2 billion in Q4. Client deposits up 2% full-year; average deposits increased ~$300 million sequentially. Total deposit cost declined 16 basis points to 1.81%.
Capital Return to Shareholders
Repurchased $200 million of common stock in Q4 (average price $18/sh) — double prior commitment — and announced plans to repurchase at least $300 million in Q1 and at least $1.2 billion for full-year 2026.
Capital Ratios and Tangible Book Value
Marked CET1 ratio was 10.3% (flat sequentially); reported CET1 was 11.7% quarter-end. Tangible book value per share rose 3% sequentially and 18% year-over-year.
Improving Credit Metrics
Q4 net charge-offs of $104 million (annualized 39 bps), down 9% sequentially. Full-year net charge-offs were 41 bps, near the better end of guidance. Nonperforming assets declined 6% sequentially and the NPA ratio improved to 59 bps. Criticized loans fell ~$500 million (8%) sequentially.
Fee Revenue Momentum and Wealth Management Growth
Full-year fee income grew 7.5%. Q4 adjusted non-interest income increased 8% YoY. Investment banking & debt placement fees were $243 million (up 10% YoY). Wealth AUM set a record at $70 billion; mass affluent segment produced a third consecutive year of record sales and since 2023 added 54,000 households and nearly $4 billion of AUM.
Commercial Payments and Capital Markets Performance
Commercial payments fee-equivalent revenue grew ~11% in 2025. The firm raised nearly $140 billion of capital for clients in 2025, retaining ~20% on the balance sheet, and reports historically elevated pipelines in investment banking.
2026 Financial Guidance Reflects Continued Growth
Management guided to ~7% revenue growth in 2026, NII growth of 8%–10%, non-interest income growth ~3%–4% (5%–6% adjusted), expenses up 3%–4% (implying 300–400 bps operating leverage), average loans +1%–2% with commercial loans +~5%, and NCO ratio stable at 40–45 bps.
Negative Updates
Conservative Investment Banking Fee Guidance and Visibility Risks
Management characterized its 2026 investment banking fee outlook as conservative due to limited visibility beyond early 2026; investment banking hires were modest (~5%), and management emphasized uncertainty in sustaining middle-market M&A momentum past the first quarter.
Elevated Q4 Expenses and One-Time Items
Q4 noninterest expenses were $1.3 billion (up 7% sequentially, 2% YoY) and included roughly $30 million of unusually elevated expenses that management said should not be considered run-rate.
Consumer Loan Runoff and Earnings-Asset Seasonality
Intentional runoff of ~$550 million of low-yielding consumer loans in Q4 (mortgages yielding ~3.3%) and management expects continued consumer runoff (approx. $600 million per quarter cited), contributing to a flattish average earning assets outlook and seasonal Q4 NII trough.
Pressure on Commercial Mortgage Servicing Fees
Commercial mortgage servicing fees were $68 million in Q4 (flat YoY) but down $6 million from Q3; management expects servicing fees to run ~$50–60 million per quarter in 2026 due to lower rates and special servicing resolutions.
Capital Ratio Management and Capital Consumption
Marked CET1 at 10.3% is being actively managed down toward a target range of 9.5%–10% by 2026 to fund buybacks (planned >$1.2 billion in 2026), which reduces capital cushion and requires careful monitoring of RWA and credit performance.
Residual Broader Macro and Credit Uncertainty
Management retains conservatism in reserves and guidance given macro uncertainty; they identified watch areas including consumer discretionary (~$5 billion portfolio), parts of healthcare, and agriculture, and noted they built modest reserves (Q4 provision $108 million including $104 million NCOs, $4 million build).
Funding Mix Transition Risk
Brokered CDs averaged $2.5 billion in Q4 and management plans to reduce brokered deposits to near zero by mid-2026 and replace with client deposits — a positive long-term move but one that entails near-term funding mix transition and execution risk.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenue to increase about 7%, driven by net interest income growth of 8–10% (tax‑equivalent) with an NIM objective of roughly 3.0%+ by Q4 2026 (and 3.25%+ in 2027) and an expected NII exit run‑rate of ~$1.3B+, non‑interest income to grow ~3–4% (5–6% adjusted for certain business decisions) with investment banking fees ~+5%, wealth fees in the high single digits and commercial‑payments fees in the low double digits, average loans up ~1–2% (commercial loans ~+5%), expenses up ~3–4% (about half the revenue growth) implying ~300–400 bps of operating leverage, a full‑year net charge‑off ratio of 40–45 bps, a taxable‑equivalent tax rate of ~22–23%, and an amplified capital return plan (repurchased $200M in Q4 at ~$18/sh and will repurchase at least $300M in Q1 and ≥$1.2B in 2026), while managing marked CET1 (10.3% quarter‑end; reported CET1 11.7%) toward the higher end of its 9.5–10% target range by 2026.KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a clear recovery with solid TTM revenue growth (10.48%) and a return to positive profitability (net margin 10.54%). Leverage has improved (debt-to-equity 0.61), and free cash flow growth is strong (76.93%), but ROE remains modest (5.60%) and operating cash flow conversion vs. net income is weak (0.0185), pointing to efficiency and cash flow quality areas to watch.Income Statement
KeyCorp's income statement shows a strong recovery with a TTM revenue growth rate of 10.48% and improved margins compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy at 57.17%, and the net profit margin has improved to 10.54% from a negative margin in 2024. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are still relatively low, indicating room for operational efficiency improvements.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.61 in the TTM period, showing a significant improvement from previous years. The return on equity is modest at 5.60%, indicating average profitability. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall leverage has decreased, enhancing financial stability.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a substantial free cash flow growth of 76.93% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.0185, suggesting potential cash flow management issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.98, reflecting efficient cash conversion.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.19B | 9.05B | 10.23B | 7.91B | 7.33B |
| Gross Profit | 6.97B | 4.06B | 5.73B | 6.52B | 7.46B |
| EBITDA | 2.31B | -233.00M | 1.31B | 2.50B | 3.29B |
| Net Income | 1.83B | -161.00M | 967.00M | 1.92B | 2.63B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 184.38B | 187.17B | 188.28B | 189.81B | 186.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.45B | 22.51B | 48.94B | 42.44B | 57.29B |
| Total Debt | 11.00B | 14.25B | 22.64B | 28.77B | 12.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 164.00B | 168.99B | 173.64B | 176.36B | 168.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.38B | 18.18B | 14.64B | 13.45B | 17.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 599.00M | 2.76B | 4.36B | 1.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 664.00M | 2.90B | 4.47B | 1.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.50B | 1.42B | -10.93B | -15.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -2.36B | -4.27B | 6.44B | 13.74B |
KeyCorp Technical Analysis
Positive
21.46
Price Trends
20.00
Positive
19.00
Positive
17.72
Positive
Market Momentum
0.32
Positive
59.40
Neutral
58.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.19, above the 50-day MA of 20.00, and above the 200-day MA of 17.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KEY.
KeyCorp Risk Analysis
KeyCorp disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. KeyCorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
KeyCorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $24.32B | 12.06 | 11.68% | 3.74% | 4.00% | 28.54% | |
79 Outperform | $9.81B | 12.85 | 12.11% | 1.40% | 3.58% | 13.93% | |
78 Outperform | $27.31B | 12.48 | 10.03% | 3.50% | 5.73% | 38.39% | |
75 Outperform | $33.38B | 14.29 | 12.20% | 3.14% | 0.15% | 11.62% | |
74 Outperform | $26.85B | 16.20 | 7.24% | 2.89% | -3.93% | 40.62% | |
72 Outperform | $23.12B | 14.01 | 9.48% | 3.90% | 3.86% | 5473.29% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
KEY
KeyCorp
21.46
4.62
27.45%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
50.84
7.27
16.69%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
17.43
0.84
5.09%
RF
Regions Financial
27.87
4.15
17.50%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
145.47
15.47
11.90%
CFG
Citizens Financial
63.42
17.82
39.08%
KeyCorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
KeyCorp announces board changes and stronger quarterly results
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
On January 15, 2026, KeyCorp directors Ruth Ann Gillis and Carlton Highsmith notified the board that they will retire at the end of their terms at the 2026 annual shareholder meeting, prompting the board’s January 20, 2026 decision to nominate former BlackRock executive Antonio “Tony” DeSpirito and former Truist executive Christopher L. “Chris” Henson as new independent directors, while appointing Todd Vasos as lead independent director to succeed Alexander M. “Sandy” Cutler. These board changes are intended to support the next phase of value creation, adding deep asset management and banking experience while keeping the board at 14 members. Also on January 20, 2026, KeyCorp reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income from continuing operations attributable to common shareholders of $474 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, up from $454 million in the prior quarter and reversing a loss in the year-ago period, driven by record full-year revenue of $7.5 billion, higher net interest income and margin, improved credit quality, and robust fee businesses, including record assets under management of $70 billion and near-record investment banking and debt placement fees. The bank, which repurchased $200 million of common shares in the quarter while maintaining a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 11.7%, highlighted strong operating leverage, substantial growth in tangible book value, and sustained momentum as it targets mid-to-high teens returns on tangible common equity and signals capacity for increased capital returns to shareholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (KEY) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KeyCorp stock, see the KEY Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
KeyCorp director retires, board size reduced to 14
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
On January 13, 2026, KeyCorp announced that director David K. Wilson retired from its Board of Directors for personal health reasons, marking a change in the company’s governance structure. Following his departure, the Board approved a reduction in its size to 14 members, effective January 15, 2026, signaling a streamlined board composition that may influence future oversight and decision-making for the company and its stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (KEY) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KeyCorp stock, see the KEY Stock Forecast page.
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
KeyCorp Registers Shares Issued to Bank of Nova Scotia
Neutral
Dec 23, 2025
On December 23, 2025, KeyCorp filed a prospectus supplement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register 161,968,762 common shares that had been issued to The Bank of Nova Scotia under an investment agreement dated August 12, 2024. The filing, which satisfied KeyCorp’s contractual obligation to complete this step by December 27, 2025, also included a related legal opinion, formalizing the regulatory treatment of the shares and advancing the implementation of the previously announced investment arrangement with The Bank of Nova Scotia.
The most recent analyst rating on (KEY) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KeyCorp stock, see the KEY Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
KeyCorp Highlights Strong 2025 Performance at Conference
Positive
Dec 9, 2025
On December 9, 2025, KeyCorp released an investor presentation in conjunction with the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference. The presentation highlighted KeyCorp’s strong financial performance, including a record revenue year in 2025, significant growth in net interest income, and a robust capital return strategy, positioning the company favorably for future growth.
The most recent analyst rating on (KEY) stock is a Hold with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KeyCorp stock, see the KEY Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
KeyCorp Subsidiary to Redeem Senior Bank Notes
Neutral
Nov 25, 2025
On November 25, 2025, KeyCorp announced that its subsidiary, KeyBank National Association, issued a redemption notice to redeem all outstanding 4.700% Fixed Rate Senior Bank Notes due January 26, 2026, on December 29, 2025. This strategic move involves redeeming the notes at a price equal to 100% of the outstanding principal amount plus accrued interest, potentially impacting the company’s financial positioning and stakeholder interests.
The most recent analyst rating on (KEY) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KeyCorp stock, see the KEY Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
KeyCorp to Present at Boston Conference on Nov 6
Positive
Nov 5, 2025
KeyCorp announced its participation in the BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference on November 6, 2025, where it will review its performance, strategy, and outlook. The company highlights its robust consumer banking foundation, with significant growth in relationship households and assets under management, emphasizing a relationship-driven strategy that has led to improved client satisfaction and financial performance.
The most recent analyst rating on (KEY) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KeyCorp stock, see the KEY Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.