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KeyCorp
(NYSE:KEY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(14.68% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/11/26
Overall score reflects improving financial performance and a positive earnings outlook with raised 2026 targets and accelerated shareholder returns. Technicals support the setup with an uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is reasonable with a solid dividend. Key risks tempering the score are historical earnings volatility, recent re-leveraging in TTM, and near-term funding/credit uncertainty (deposit softness, NPAs uptick, and reserve build).
Positive Factors
Revenue & Cash Recovery
Since 2025 the company has meaningfully recovered revenue and profitability and free cash flow closely tracks net income (~95%). That persistent cash conversion supports durable capital deployment, dividend coverage and buybacks, and reduces refinancing risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Recent Re-leveraging
Leverage has increased notably in the trailing twelve months versus 2025, reducing the buffer between assets and equity. Higher leverage can constrain capital flexibility, amplify earnings sensitivity to credit losses or margin shocks, and increase reliance on external funding in the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Cash Recovery
Since 2025 the company has meaningfully recovered revenue and profitability and free cash flow closely tracks net income (~95%). That persistent cash conversion supports durable capital deployment, dividend coverage and buybacks, and reduces refinancing risk over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
KeyCorp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Assets by Segment
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeyCorp (KEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.85B
Dividend Yield3.9%
Average Volume (3M)11.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth20.39%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees16,989
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.64
Shares Outstanding1,079,368,700
10 Day Avg. Volume13,977,585
30 Day Avg. Volume11,615,426
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.87Price Target Upside18.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)1.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.07B
KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Its operations are distinctly segmented into a Consumer Bank and a Commer...
How the Company Makes Money
KeyCorp primarily earns revenue through a mix of net interest income and noninterest income typical of diversified banking organizations. Net interest income is generated by taking in deposits and other funding and investing or lending those funds...
KeyCorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial momentum: strong earnings (EPS +33% YoY), healthy revenue and NII trends, consistent commercial loan growth, record investment banking fees for the quarter, disciplined capital returns (accelerated buybacks) and a favorable preliminary view of Basel III endgame relief. Offsetting items were manageable: seasonal deposit outflows and intentional brokered CD runoff, a modest uptick in NPAs from two idiosyncratic credits, an incremental qualitative reserve build due to macro uncertainty, and guidance that investment banking fees may normalize in Q2. Management reiterated conservative guidance assumptions and emphasized continued investments in technology and talent while maintaining solid capital and liquidity positions.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings Per Share Growth
Reported EPS of $0.44, up 33% year over year, reflecting improved profitability and operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Deposit Trends and Seasonal Outflows
Average deposits declined 2% sequentially with reported average noninterest-bearing deposits down 5.5% sequentially; $1.6 billion intentional runoff of higher-cost brokered CDs contributed to the decline and management expects deposits to trough in early May before recovering.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings Per Share Growth
Reported EPS of $0.44, up 33% year over year, reflecting improved profitability and operating leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
KeyCorp raised and refined its 2026 targets: full‑year taxable‑equivalent net interest income growth is now guided to 9–10% (vs. prior 8–10%) with an expected exit NIM of ~3.05% (Q1 NIM 2.87%; management remains on track to exceed 3% by year‑end); average loans are now guided to +2–4% (prior 1–2%) with average commercial loans +6–8%, and full‑year expense growth is reiterated at 3–4%. On capital and shareholder returns, CET1 was 11.4% (marked CET1 10%) and management will manage marked CET1 to ~9.5–10% under current RWA rules (a preliminary Basel III endgame estimate would add 100+ bps, implying ~11% fully phased), and buybacks are at least $300M per quarter (≥ $1.3B for 2026, up from $1.2B) after repurchasing nearly $400M in Q1. Other guidance/details: Q2 investment banking fees planned at $175–180M with full‑year mid‑single‑digit growth, commercial mortgage servicing fees ~$50–60M/quarter, deposits expected to trough in early May then grow (total deposit cost 1.65%), cumulative interest‑bearing deposit beta 56% and cumulative funding beta 68%; NII guidance assumes a wide range of rate scenarios (base case = no cuts) and management added qualitative loan‑loss reserves for macro uncertainty.KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.22B | 11.19B | 9.05B | 10.23B | 7.91B | 7.33B |
| Gross Profit | 7.20B | 6.97B | 4.06B | 5.73B | 6.52B | 7.46B |
| EBITDA | 2.51B | 2.32B | -233.00M | 1.31B | 2.50B | 3.29B |
| Net Income | 1.95B | 1.83B | -161.00M | 967.00M | 1.92B | 2.63B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 188.66B | 184.38B | 187.17B | 188.28B | 189.81B | 186.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.75B | 11.45B | 22.51B | 48.94B | 42.44B | 57.29B |
| Total Debt | 17.06B | 11.00B | 14.25B | 22.64B | 28.77B | 12.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 168.68B | 164.00B | 168.99B | 173.64B | 176.36B | 168.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.99B | 20.38B | 18.18B | 14.64B | 13.45B | 17.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.18B | 2.10B | 599.00M | 2.76B | 4.36B | 1.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.29B | 2.21B | 664.00M | 2.90B | 4.47B | 1.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -662.00M | 3.22B | 2.50B | 1.42B | -10.93B | -15.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.40B | -5.88B | -2.36B | -4.27B | 6.44B | 13.74B |
KeyCorp Technical Analysis
Positive
21.80
Price Trends
21.84
Positive
21.17
Positive
20.03
Positive
Market Momentum
0.45
Negative
60.54
Neutral
50.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.64, below the 50-day MA of 21.84, and above the 200-day MA of 20.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KEY.
KeyCorp Risk Analysis
KeyCorp disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. KeyCorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
KeyCorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $10.87B | 13.31 | 11.93% | 1.40% | 6.64% | 17.78% | |
75 Outperform | $24.85B | 14.04 | 9.74% | 3.90% | 20.39% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $36.20B | 13.43 | 8.82% | 3.50% | 9.10% | 0.60% | |
73 Outperform | $30.02B | 16.66 | 7.63% | 2.89% | -0.44% | 34.70% | |
72 Outperform | $51.80B | 19.05 | 8.86% | 3.14% | 7.12% | -5.41% | |
72 Outperform | $25.84B | 12.46 | 11.78% | 3.74% | 2.53% | 16.52% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
KEY
KeyCorp
23.02
5.47
31.19%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
57.16
15.50
37.22%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
17.86
0.95
5.64%
RF
Regions Financial
30.28
6.66
28.18%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
161.19
32.54
25.29%
CFG
Citizens Financial
70.98
25.40
55.71%
KeyCorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
KeyCorp Updates Medium-Term Note Program for Flexibility
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On June 10, 2026, KeyCorp updated its Medium-Term Note Program, enabling the company to issue Senior Medium-Term Notes, Series U, and Subordinated Medium-Term Notes, Series V, under existing senior and subordinated indentures with Deutsche Bank Tr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
KeyCorp Updates Segment Reporting for Interest Rate Risk
Neutral
Jun 3, 2026
KeyCorp has recast its 2025 segment financial information to reflect a change in how it presents centrally managed interest rate risk, effective January 1, 2026, shifting the residual impact into its Other segment from the Consumer and Commercial ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
KeyCorp Raises 2026 Outlook, Expands Share Repurchase Plans
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, KeyCorp released an investor presentation outlining its progress and plans to use a relationship-based, fee-heavy model to drive profitable growth and improve returns. The bank highlighted structural net interest income tailwinds,...
Stock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
KeyCorp Board Actions and New Shareholder Return Program
Positive
May 14, 2026
At its recent annual meeting, KeyCorp shareholders elected all 14 board nominees, ratified Ernst Young LLP as independent auditor for fiscal 2026, approved executive compensation on an advisory basis, and endorsed the KeyCorp 2026 Equity Compensa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.