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Keycorp (KEY)
NYSE:KEY
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KeyCorp
(NYSE:KEY)
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
â–²(2.24%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Position
An infusion of capital from Scotia improves KeyCorp's balance sheet, making it better positioned financially.
Growth Projections
KeyCorp is optimistic about achieving fee targets for 2025, with plans to grow the middle market by mid to high single digits, supported by hiring.
Negative Factors
Economic Risks
Weakening economic data could lead to additional reserve builds if the outlook worsens.
Investment Banking Revenue
KeyCorp highlights downside risks to fees if macroeconomic uncertainty negatively impacts investment banking revenues.
KeyCorp (KEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.15B
Dividend Yield5.24%
Average Volume (3M)11.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)1663.6
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth-12.50%
EPS Growth-120.77%
CountryUS
Employees16,989
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength73
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding1,095,942,400
10 Day Avg. Volume11,087,768
30 Day Avg. Volume11,626,713
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.31
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio7.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.64Price Target Upside12.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits, investment products and services; and personal finance and financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, lending, credit card, treasury, business advisory, wealth management, asset management, investment, cash management, portfolio management, and trust and related services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses. It also provides a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance, as well as commercial mortgage loans comprising consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology loans for middle market clients. In addition, the company offers community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of approximately 999 branches and 1,317 ATMs in 15 states, as well as additional offices, online and mobile banking capabilities, and a telephone banking call center. KeyCorp was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyKeyCorp generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is interest income from loans and advances made to personal and commercial customers, which include mortgages, personal loans, credit cards, and business loans. The company also earns substantial non-interest income through fees and commissions from services such as asset management, investment banking, transaction processing, and treasury management. Additionally, KeyCorp benefits from income through its capital markets operations, which provide advisory services, securities underwriting, and trading. The financial health and profitability of KeyCorp are significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions, interest rate fluctuations, and regulatory changes, alongside strategic partnerships that enhance its service offerings and market reach.
KeyCorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 17, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 12.75%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
KeyCorp reported strong first-quarter results with significant revenue and net interest income growth, a robust capital position, and record investment banking fees. However, market uncertainty and potential economic weakness pose challenges, as evidenced by reserve adjustments and elevated commercial real estate charge-offs.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Revenue Growth
Revenues were up 16% year-over-year, exceeding expectations, with a strong pre-provision net revenue increase of over $90 million from the previous quarter.
Strong Capital Position
KeyCorp ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 11.8% and a marked CET1 ratio of approximately 10%, both at the high end of their peer group, indicating a robust capital position.
Record Investment Banking Fees
For the second consecutive year, first-quarter investment banking fees were a record, with syndication and debt capital markets activity driving the growth.
Net Interest Income Growth
Tax-equivalent net interest income was $1.1 billion, up 4% sequentially and 25% year-over-year, driven by strategic actions taken in the previous year.
Improved Asset Quality
Nonperforming assets declined by nearly 10% sequentially, and overall credit migration improved for a fifth consecutive quarter.
Negative Updates
Market Uncertainty Impacting Client Sentiment
Recent geopolitical events and economic uncertainty have caused clients to pause transactional activity, affecting market conditions.
Potential Economic Weakness
A reserve adjustment in excess of $100 million was made to account for potential economic weakness that could develop later in the year.
Elevated Commercial Real Estate Charge-Offs
Commercial real estate gross charge-offs were elevated due to a couple of specific names, despite overall portfolio health improving.
Company Guidance
During KeyCorp's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance emphasizing its strong financial position despite macroeconomic uncertainties. KeyCorp reported a 16% year-over-year increase in revenue while maintaining stable expenses, resulting in a significant $90 million increase in pre-provision net revenue compared to the fourth quarter. The company highlighted a decline in non-performing assets (NPAs) by nearly 10% sequentially and a provision for credit losses of $118 million, which included $110 million in net charge-offs and an $8 million reserve build. KeyCorp's CET1 ratio stood at 11.8%, with liquidity comprising over 30% in cash and cash equivalents. The bank maintained its 2025 guidance, anticipating 20% net interest income growth, supported by strong loan and deposit performance and strategic actions taken in 2024. Additionally, KeyCorp announced a $1 billion share repurchase authorization, expected to commence in the second half of the year, contingent on market conditions and economic clarity.KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
KeyCorp's financial performance reflects mixed results. Despite a stable balance sheet with increasing equity, the income statement reveals declining net income and operational inefficiencies. Cash flow analysis shows liquidity pressures, though operating cash flows remain positive, indicating the need for strategic improvements.Income Statement
KeyCorp has shown fluctuating revenue with a decline from $7.03B in 2022 to $5.89B in 2023, followed by an increase to $8.43B in 2024. The gross profit margin remains high, but a significant net loss in 2024 indicates profitability challenges. The negative trend in EBIT margin from 2022 to 2024 further underscores operational inefficiencies.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a stable equity base with stockholders’ equity increasing to $18.18B in 2024. However, the debt-to-equity ratio remains high, indicating potential leverage risks. The equity ratio is modest, suggesting a balanced asset structure but highlighting a need for improved capital management.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals volatility, with operating cash flow dropping significantly in 2024 compared to 2023. Free cash flow remains positive but lower than previous years, indicating pressures on liquidity. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 9.05B | 10.34B | 7.91B | 7.33B | 7.25B | Gross Profit |
| 4.06B | 5.73B | 6.52B | 7.46B | 5.47B | EBIT |
| -306.00M | 1.16B | 3.04B | 3.25B | 1.56B | EBITDA |
| -233.00M | 1.31B | 2.50B | 3.29B | 1.67B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -161.00M | 967.00M | 1.92B | 2.63B | 1.34B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 23.77B | 50.08B | 43.25B | 57.97B | 45.56B | Total Assets |
| 187.17B | 188.28B | 189.81B | 186.35B | 170.34B | Total Debt |
| 14.25B | 22.64B | 28.77B | 12.80B | 14.69B | Net Debt |
| 12.51B | 21.70B | 27.88B | 11.89B | 13.60B | Total Liabilities |
| 168.99B | 173.64B | 176.36B | 168.92B | 152.35B | Stockholders Equity |
| 18.18B | 14.64B | 13.45B | 17.42B | 17.98B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 599.00M | 2.76B | 4.36B | 1.09B | 1.61B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 664.00M | 2.90B | 4.47B | 1.15B | 1.67B | Investing Cash Flow |
| 2.50B | 1.42B | -10.93B | -15.07B | -24.72B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -2.36B | -4.27B | 6.44B | 13.74B | 23.41B |
KeyCorp Technical Analysis
Negative
15.65
Price Trends
15.13
Positive
15.80
Negative
16.39
Negative
Market Momentum
0.18
Positive
46.87
Neutral
47.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.95, above the 50-day MA of 15.13, and below the 200-day MA of 16.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KEY.
KeyCorp Risk Analysis
KeyCorp disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. KeyCorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
KeyCorp Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $22.60B | 11.96 | 10.30% | 4.00% | 7.55% | 17.46% | |
75 Outperform | $19.34B | 10.38 | 11.33% | 4.65% | 1.05% | 12.14% | |
74 Outperform | $25.35B | 12.06 | 11.71% | 3.90% | 5.75% | 0.68% | |
74 Outperform | $28.58B | 11.93 | 9.39% | 3.03% | 1.20% | 1.12% | |
71 Outperform | $17.49B | 12.84 | 6.37% | 4.17% | -2.37% | 13.92% | |
64 Neutral | $12.77B | 9.71 | 7.85% | 78.06% | 12.07% | -7.97% | |
57 Neutral | $17.15B | 1,663.64 | 0.14% | 5.24% | -12.50% | -120.77% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
KEY
KeyCorp
15.65
2.73
21.13%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
37.98
3.62
10.54%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
15.51
3.49
29.03%
MTB
M&T Bank
178.03
37.31
26.51%
RF
Regions Financial
21.51
3.39
18.71%
CFG
Citizens Financial
40.33
7.17
21.62%
KeyCorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
KeyCorp to Present at Morgan Stanley Conference
Positive
Jun 10, 2025
KeyCorp announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference on June 11, 2025, where it will review its performance, strategy, and outlook. The company has been expanding its commercial banking operations, emphasizing growth in commercial payments and middle-market services, which are supported by a robust fintech ecosystem. This strategic focus is expected to enhance KeyCorp’s market positioning and provide significant growth opportunities.
The most recent analyst rating on (KEY) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KeyCorp stock, see the KEY Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.