KeyCorp (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.52B
• Dividend Yield: 4.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 27.16M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1663.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.51
• Revenue Growth: -12.21%
• EPS Growth: -108.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,989
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 1,095,942,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 40,344,782
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 27,156,267
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.05K
• 1Y Price Target: $19.90
• Price Target Upside: 11.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(15.10% Upside)

KeyCorp's overall score reflects strong technical momentum and a positive earnings outlook, despite valuation concerns and profitability challenges. The company's strategic initiatives and stable financials provide a moderate investment outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Revenue growth tops expectations, guidance raised.

Growth Strategy

A combination of targeted C&I lending complemented by a well-positioned middle markets investment bank should allow KEY to capitalize on rebounding US growth.

Valuation

KeyCorp shares offer among the most compelling risk/reward in the super-regional bank space.

Negative Factors

Credit Risk

KEY screens weaker than regional peers on loan exposure to non-depository financial institutions, which could pose some modest credit risk at Keycorp.

Investment Banking

KEY talked down near-term IB expectations, which could reverberate throughout the remainder of 2H25.

Valuation Concerns

The recommendation was downgraded to Neutral due to full valuation concerns.

KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits, investment products and services; and personal finance and financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, lending, credit card, treasury, business advisory, wealth management, asset management, investment, cash management, portfolio management, and trust and related services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses. It also provides a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance, as well as commercial mortgage loans comprising consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology loans for middle market clients. In addition, the company offers community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of approximately 999 branches and 1,317 ATMs in 15 states, as well as additional offices, online and mobile banking capabilities, and a telephone banking call center. KeyCorp was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

KeyCorp generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is interest income from loans and advances made to personal and commercial customers, which include mortgages, personal loans, credit cards, and business loans. The company also earns substantial non-interest income through fees and commissions from services such as asset management, investment banking, transaction processing, and treasury management. Additionally, KeyCorp benefits from income through its capital markets operations, which provide advisory services, securities underwriting, and trading. The financial health and profitability of KeyCorp are significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions, interest rate fluctuations, and regulatory changes, alongside strategic partnerships that enhance its service offerings and market reach.

KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

KeyCorp's financial health is stable with a strong Balance Sheet and positive cash flow metrics, despite some historical volatility in profits and equity levels. Revenue growth is modest, and profitability is recovering, but challenges remain with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Income Statement

The Income Statement shows mixed results. There is a slight revenue growth of 0.66% from 2024 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), but revenue has declined from its peak in 2023. Gross Profit Margin stands at 47% in the TTM, indicating efficiency in generating profit from sales. However, the company is facing challenges with profitability as seen in the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, though net income has improved from a loss in 2024 to a small profit in TTM.

Balance Sheet

The Balance Sheet is relatively strong with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.78, suggesting moderate leverage. The Equity Ratio is 10.08%, indicating a decent portion of assets are financed by equity. Return on Equity (ROE) has improved to 0.13% in the TTM, showing a recovery in profitability. However, the overall equity base has fluctuated, which could pose a risk if not stabilized.

Cash Flow

Cash Flow metrics show some positive trends. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 6.6 in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to profits. Free Cash Flow has decreased compared to 2024, but remains positive. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 4.08, signifying good cash flow management despite lower earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.05B	10.23B	7.91B	7.33B	7.14B
Gross Profit	4.06B	5.73B	6.52B	7.46B	5.47B
EBITDA	-233.00M	1.31B	2.50B	3.29B	1.67B
Net Income	-161.00M	967.00M	1.92B	2.63B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	187.17B	188.28B	189.81B	186.35B	170.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.51B	48.94B	42.44B	57.29B	44.84B
Total Debt	14.25B	22.64B	28.77B	12.80B	14.69B
Total Liabilities	168.99B	173.64B	176.36B	168.92B	152.35B
Stockholders Equity	18.18B	14.64B	13.45B	17.42B	17.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	599.00M	2.76B	4.36B	1.09B	1.61B
Operating Cash Flow	664.00M	2.90B	4.47B	1.15B	1.67B
Investing Cash Flow	2.50B	1.42B	-10.93B	-15.07B	-24.72B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.36B	-4.27B	6.44B	13.74B	23.41B

KeyCorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 17.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 17.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.27, above the 50-day MA of 17.23, and above the 200-day MA of 16.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KEY.

KeyCorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FITB	78 Outperform	$27.59B	12.87	11.58%	3.62%	2.08%	2.87%
RF	77 Outperform	$22.64B	11.74	11.59%	3.97%	2.83%	20.85%
CFG	77 Outperform	$20.40B	14.42	6.48%	3.59%	-4.07%	25.31%
MTB	77 Outperform	$29.39B	12.18	9.47%	2.92%	0.62%	14.75%
HBAN	73 Outperform	$23.75B	12.06	10.43%	3.87%	5.28%	28.03%
KEY	70 Outperform	$19.52B	1,663.64	1.02%	4.60%	-12.21%	-108.48%
Sector *	58 Neutral	HK$95.83B	5.46	-3.98%	4.95%	3.41%	-44.65%

KeyCorp Corporate Events

KeyCorp to Present at Morgan Stanley Conference

KeyCorp announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference on June 11, 2025, where it will review its performance, strategy, and outlook. The company has been expanding its commercial banking operations, emphasizing growth in commercial payments and middle-market services, which are supported by a robust fintech ecosystem. This strategic focus is expected to enhance KeyCorp’s market positioning and provide significant growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (KEY) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KeyCorp stock, see the KEY Stock Forecast page.