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KeyCorp (KEY)
:KEY
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KeyCorp (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

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KEY

KeyCorp

(NYSE:KEY)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
â–²(3.15% Upside)
KeyCorp's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call results and positive technical indicators. Financial performance is stable but requires attention to historical volatility. Valuation concerns are offset by an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Revenue growth tops expectations, guidance raised.
Growth Opportunities
A combination of targeted C&I lending complemented by a well-positioned middle markets investment bank should allow KEY to capitalize on rebounding US growth.
Loan Growth
Stronger loan growth was the biggest positive this quarter.
Negative Factors
Credit Risk
KEY screens weaker than regional peers on loan exposure to non-depository financial institutions, which could pose some modest credit risk at Keycorp.
Investment Banking Expectations
KEY talked down near-term IB expectations, which could reverberate throughout the remainder of 2H25.
Valuation Concerns
The recommendation was downgraded to Neutral due to full valuation concerns.

KeyCorp (KEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits, investment products and services; and personal finance and financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, lending, credit card, treasury, business advisory, wealth management, asset management, investment, cash management, portfolio management, and trust and related services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses. It also provides a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance, as well as commercial mortgage loans comprising consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology loans for middle market clients. In addition, the company offers community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of approximately 999 branches and 1,317 ATMs in 15 states, as well as additional offices, online and mobile banking capabilities, and a telephone banking call center. KeyCorp was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyKeyCorp generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is derived from the difference between the interest earned on loans and securities and the interest paid on deposits and other borrowings. The company offers various loan products, including personal loans, mortgages, and commercial loans, which constitute a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, KeyCorp earns non-interest income through fees for services such as wealth management, investment banking, and deposit account services. KeyCorp also engages in mortgage banking and capital markets activities, contributing to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with fintech companies and other financial institutions enhance its product offerings and customer reach, further driving revenue growth.

KeyCorp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with significant growth in revenue, loan, and deposit management, as well as successful investment banking activities. While there were increased expenses due to strategic investments, the overall outlook remains positive with improved credit quality and strong asset management records. Deposit competition may pose a challenge, but it is not seen as a major threat.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and EPS Growth
Earnings per share were $0.35, with revenues up 21% from a year ago. This growth occurred despite adding $36 million to loan loss reserves and prefunding a charitable foundation.
Positive Loan and Deposit Growth
Achieved full-year plan to grow commercial loans by $3 billion. Deposit costs managed below 2% with a historically low loan-to-deposit ratio of 70%.
Investment Banking Success
Investment banking had its second-best first half in history with $30 billion of capital raised for clients and a 41% year-over-year increase in fees.
Record Asset Management
Assets under management reached a record $64 billion. Mass affluent segment sales production also hit a record in the first half of the year.
Improved Credit Quality
Net charge-offs, criticized loans, and delinquencies all declined from the first quarter, with commercial upgrades exceeding downgrades.
Negative Updates
Increased Expenses
Expenses rose by 7% year-over-year, driven by higher personnel expenses and investments in technology and people.
Potential Deposit Competition
Expectations of increased competition for deposits, particularly from commercial clients, which may affect pricing strategies.
Company Guidance
During KeyCorp's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance reflecting their strong performance and optimistic outlook. KeyCorp reported earnings per share of $0.35, with a 21% increase in revenue compared to the previous year. Pre-provision net revenue grew by $44 million sequentially, marking a consistent increase over five quarters. The company highlighted successful commercial loan growth, having already met their full-year goal of a $3 billion increase by the end of June. Their loan-to-deposit ratio was maintained at a low 70%, and deposit costs were managed below 2%. KeyCorp raised over $30 billion in capital during the quarter, retaining 22% on their balance sheet. Their net interest income is expected to grow by 20% to 22% for the year, with an improved loan guidance forecasting a 2% increase in period-end loans. The company is also on track to increase their workforce by 10%, focusing on hiring frontline bankers and client advisors. KeyCorp remains committed to strategic investments in technology and personnel, aligning with their growth strategy and market opportunities.

KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
KeyCorp's financial health is stable with a strong Balance Sheet and positive cash flow metrics, despite some historical volatility in profits and equity levels. Revenue growth is modest, and profitability is recovering, but challenges remain with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.
Income Statement
62
Positive
The Income Statement shows mixed results. There is a slight revenue growth of 0.66% from 2024 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), but revenue has declined from its peak in 2023. Gross Profit Margin stands at 47% in the TTM, indicating efficiency in generating profit from sales. However, the company is facing challenges with profitability as seen in the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, though net income has improved from a loss in 2024 to a small profit in TTM.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The Balance Sheet is relatively strong with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.78, suggesting moderate leverage. The Equity Ratio is 10.08%, indicating a decent portion of assets are financed by equity. Return on Equity (ROE) has improved to 0.13% in the TTM, showing a recovery in profitability. However, the overall equity base has fluctuated, which could pose a risk if not stabilized.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash Flow metrics show some positive trends. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 6.6 in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to profits. Free Cash Flow has decreased compared to 2024, but remains positive. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 4.08, signifying good cash flow management despite lower earnings.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.05B10.23B7.91B7.33B7.14B
Gross Profit4.06B5.73B6.52B7.46B5.47B
EBITDA-233.00M1.31B2.50B3.29B1.67B
Net Income-161.00M967.00M1.92B2.63B1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets187.17B188.28B189.81B186.35B170.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments22.51B48.94B42.44B57.29B44.84B
Total Debt14.25B22.64B28.77B12.80B14.69B
Total Liabilities168.99B173.64B176.36B168.92B152.35B
Stockholders Equity18.18B14.64B13.45B17.42B17.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow599.00M2.76B4.36B1.09B1.61B
Operating Cash Flow664.00M2.90B4.47B1.15B1.67B
Investing Cash Flow2.50B1.42B-10.93B-15.07B-24.72B
Financing Cash Flow-2.36B-4.27B6.44B13.74B23.41B

KeyCorp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.39
Price Trends
50DMA
17.89
Positive
100DMA
16.51
Positive
200DMA
16.81
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.28
Negative
RSI
69.62
Neutral
STOCH
96.29
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.09, above the 50-day MA of 17.89, and above the 200-day MA of 16.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KEY.

KeyCorp Risk Analysis

KeyCorp disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. KeyCorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

KeyCorp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$29.78B13.8111.58%3.29%1.90%2.87%
77
Outperform
$22.13B15.466.48%3.27%-3.68%25.31%
77
Outperform
$24.16B12.4211.59%3.69%2.94%20.85%
75
Outperform
$30.93B12.949.47%2.70%0.69%14.79%
73
Outperform
$25.64B12.8710.43%3.54%6.06%28.03%
69
Neutral
$21.16B1,663.641.02%4.25%-12.30%-108.78%
68
Neutral
$17.69B11.8210.30%3.73%9.66%0.42%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KEY
KeyCorp
19.30
3.15
19.50%
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp
45.00
4.29
10.54%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
17.80
3.74
26.60%
MTB
M&T Bank
200.15
34.51
20.83%
RF
Regions Financial
27.41
5.38
24.42%
CFG
Citizens Financial
51.90
10.81
26.31%

KeyCorp Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
KeyCorp to Present at Morgan Stanley Conference
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

KeyCorp announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference on June 11, 2025, where it will review its performance, strategy, and outlook. The company has been expanding its commercial banking operations, emphasizing growth in commercial payments and middle-market services, which are supported by a robust fintech ecosystem. This strategic focus is expected to enhance KeyCorp’s market positioning and provide significant growth opportunities.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025