M&T Bank (MTB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $35.62B
• Dividend Yield: 2.76%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: -0.81%
• EPS Growth: 20.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 22,291
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 4.67
• Shares Outstanding: 153,690,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,036,755
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,220,886
• PEG Ratio: 0.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.67
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.59
• 1Y Price Target: $232.96
• Price Target Upside: 0.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 18.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $10.00B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $259.00 ▲(11.39% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (profitability and capital position, despite weaker 2025 revenue and choppy cash flow), supported by bullish technical trend signals and a reasonable valuation. A constructive earnings outlook and capital-return focus add support, tempered by near-term credit and margin pressures.

Positive Factors

Profitability and returns

M&T’s record 2025 net income and EPS and management’s multi-year ROTCE target reflect durable earnings power. Sustained return-on-capital targets support ongoing capital returns and reinvestment, indicating the franchise can generate above-average shareholder cash returns over the medium term.

Noninterest income diversification

A growing, broad-based fee mix reduces dependence on NII and interest-rate cycles. Durable fee growth across treasury, trust, mortgage and capital markets strengthens revenue resilience, supporting margins and earnings stability when loan yields compress or rates decline.

Liquidity and high-quality liquidity buffer

A large liquid securities portfolio and an LCR above regulatory minimum provide durable funding flexibility and stress resilience. This buffer supports lending and deposit strategies through rate cycles and underpins the bank’s capacity to meet obligations without forced asset sales.

Negative Factors

Top-line weakness and uneven revenue growth

A material revenue decline in 2025 and uneven growth historically signal structural pressures on the bank’s ability to scale revenues. Sustained top-line softness constrains operating leverage, limits sustainable margin expansion, and raises the bar for fee or loan growth to support EPS over time.

Rising leverage and CET1 pressure

An upward leverage trend and a CET1 target near mid-10s reduce capital flexibility versus stronger peers. Lower buffer heightens sensitivity to credit losses or RWAs growth, constraining M&T’s capacity for large buybacks, acquisitions or aggressive loan growth without further capital actions.

Elevated and volatile credit losses

Higher quarterly charge-offs and elevated forward guidance indicate persistent credit volatility. Sustained elevated loss rates erode margins, require larger provisions, and can pressure capital and earnings durability, particularly if loan mix or economic conditions deteriorate.

M&T Bank Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

M&T Bank Corporation operates as a bank holding company that provides commercial and retail banking services. The company's Business Banking segment offers deposit, lending, cash management, and other financial services to small businesses and professionals. Its Commercial Banking segment provides deposit products, commercial lending and leasing, letters of credit, and cash management services for middle-market and large commercial customers. The company's Commercial Real Estate segment originates, sells, and services commercial real estate loans; and offers deposit services. Its Discretionary Portfolio segment provides deposits; securities, residential real estate loans, and other assets; and short and long term borrowed funds, as well as foreign exchange services. The company's Residential Mortgage Banking segment offers residential real estate loans for consumers and sells those loans in the secondary market; and purchases servicing rights to loans originated by other entities. Its Retail Banking segment offers demand, savings, and time accounts; consumer installment loans, automobile and recreational finance loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, and credit cards; mutual funds and annuities; and other services. The company also provides trust and wealth management; fiduciary and custodial; insurance agency; institutional brokerage and securities; and investment management services. It offers its services through banking offices, business banking centers, telephone and internet banking, and automated teller machines. As of December 31, 2021, the company operates 688 domestic banking offices in New York State, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; and a full-service commercial banking office in Ontario, Canada. M&T Bank Corporation was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

M&T Bank generates revenue through several key streams primarily related to its banking operations. The largest source of income comes from net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. The bank also earns non-interest income through fees for services such as account maintenance, ATM usage, and transaction services. Additionally, M&T Bank engages in investment banking, providing advisory services and capital market solutions to corporate clients, which contributes to its revenue. Significant partnerships with other financial institutions and businesses enhance its offerings and customer base, further supporting its earnings. Economic factors such as interest rates and loan demand, as well as regulatory changes, also influence the bank's financial performance.

M&T Bank Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financially sound with improving profitability (higher net income and expanding margins) and steady ROE, but 2025 revenue declined, leverage has trended up versus earlier years, and free cash flow fell materially and has been volatile.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid and improving in the latest year, with net income rising to $2.85B in 2025 and margins expanding versus 2024 (net margin ~23% vs ~19%; EBIT margin ~30% vs ~25%). However, the top line declined in 2025 (revenue down ~6.5% year over year), and revenue growth has been uneven over the cycle (strong 2022–2023, then a slowdown). Overall, earnings power looks healthy, but near-term revenue momentum is a clear watch item.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows moderate leverage for a regional bank, with debt-to-equity around 0.45 in 2025 (improved versus 2023 but higher than 2021–2022). Equity has grown over time, supporting a larger asset base ($213.5B in 2025). Returns on equity are steady around ~9–10% recently, indicating decent profitability on capital, though not best-in-class. Key weakness is the upward trend in leverage compared with earlier years, which can reduce flexibility in a stressed credit or rate environment.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains positive, with operating cash flow of $3.0B and free cash flow of $3.0B in 2025, and free cash flow closely matching net income (about 1.0x), which is a good quality signal. That said, free cash flow declined materially in 2025 (down ~26% year over year) and has been choppy across the period, indicating variability in cash generation. Overall cash flow quality is good, but the trend and volatility temper the score.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.31B	13.40B	12.51B	8.44B	6.08B
Gross Profit	9.19B	8.62B	8.75B	7.50B	6.04B
EBITDA	3.96B	3.82B	4.12B	3.05B	2.78B
Net Income	2.85B	2.59B	2.74B	1.99B	1.86B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	213.51B	208.10B	208.26B	200.73B	155.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	55.42B	35.33B	40.35B	37.35B	47.22B
Total Debt	13.06B	13.66B	13.52B	7.52B	3.53B
Total Liabilities	184.33B	179.08B	181.31B	175.41B	137.20B
Stockholders Equity	29.18B	29.03B	26.96B	25.32B	17.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.59B	3.39B	3.65B	4.36B	2.57B
Operating Cash Flow	3.00B	3.61B	3.90B	4.57B	2.71B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.82B	-550.00M	-7.87B	16.59B	-13.63B
Financing Cash Flow	1.80B	-2.88B	4.18B	-20.98B	10.70B

M&T Bank Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 232.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 232.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 227.62, above the 50-day MA of 215.79, and above the 200-day MA of 194.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MTB.

M&T Bank Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RF	81 Outperform	$26.36B	13.07	11.68%	3.74%	4.00%	28.54%
KEY	75 Outperform	$23.82B	14.43	9.48%	3.90%	3.86%	5473.29%
FITB	74 Outperform	$48.91B	15.19	12.20%	3.14%	0.15%	11.62%
MTB	74 Outperform	$35.62B	13.63	9.77%	2.76%	-0.81%	20.34%
HBAN	69 Neutral	$36.31B	12.90	10.03%	3.50%	5.73%	38.39%
CFG	69 Neutral	$27.64B	16.83	7.24%	2.89%	-3.93%	40.62%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

M&T Bank Corporate Events

M&T Bank Highlights 2026 Growth Priorities and Strategy

On February 11, 2026, M&T Bank Corporation made available on its website an investor presentation for use in discussions with analysts and shareholders, outlining its first-quarter 2026 investor update and enterprise priorities. The materials highlighted the bank’s emphasis on regional growth, integrated operations, and improved customer and employee experiences, as well as a recap of strong 2025 financial performance marked by record net operating income, higher dividends and share repurchases, robust net interest margin and noninterest income, and improved asset quality metrics versus peers, reinforcing its competitive positioning and return-focused strategy.

The investor presentation underscored M&T’s 2026 priorities of “teaming for growth” and operational excellence, targeting scalable infrastructure, better customer satisfaction, higher revenue per employee and relationship manager, and increased primary deposit, mortgage, wealth, and SBA business, particularly in New England. By detailing both its 2025 financial foundation and measurable outcomes for 2026, the bank signaled continued focus on profitable growth, efficiency, and regional market leadership, with implications for sustained value creation for its investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTB) stock is a Hold with a $244.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on M&T Bank stock, see the MTB Stock Forecast page.

M&T Bank Reports Strong Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results

On January 16, 2026, M&T Bank Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $759 million, equivalent to diluted earnings of $4.67 per common share, and full-year 2025 net income of $2.85 billion, or $17.00 per diluted share, reflecting improved profitability versus 2024. For 2025, the bank posted higher net interest income and noninterest income, modest growth in average loans and deposits, and a stronger return on average assets and common equity, while maintaining solid asset quality metrics, slightly lower provisions for credit losses than the prior year, and a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 10.84%, underscoring continued balance-sheet resilience and stable operating performance for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTB) stock is a Hold with a $236.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on M&T Bank stock, see the MTB Stock Forecast page.

M&T Bank Highlights Strategic Focus in Investor Presentation

On December 9, 2025, M&T Bank Corporation released an investor presentation on its website, highlighting its strategic focus on expanding markets in New England and Long Island, optimizing resources, and enhancing risk management capabilities. The bank has received numerous accolades, including ‘Best Bank’ awards across various categories, and has consistently delivered profitability and growth, outperforming peers in key financial metrics.

The most recent analyst rating on (MTB) stock is a Buy with a $223.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on M&T Bank stock, see the MTB Stock Forecast page.