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Celsius Holdings (CELH)
NASDAQ:CELH
US Market

Celsius Holdings (CELH) AI Stock Analysis

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CELH

Celsius Holdings

(NASDAQ:CELH)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$62.00
▲(22.51% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/21/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial momentum (revenue growth and rapidly improving free cash flow) and a constructive uptrend in the shares, supported by positive earnings-call growth and margin commentary. These positives are meaningfully offset by very expensive valuation (P/E ~598) and near-term risk of momentum being extended (RSI/Stoch elevated) alongside stated cost and integration pressures.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust market demand and successful strategic initiatives, positioning Celsius for sustained expansion.
Strategic Partnerships
The strategic partnership with PepsiCo enhances distribution capabilities and market reach, supporting long-term growth potential.
Cash Generation
Strong cash generation supports reinvestment in growth initiatives and enhances financial flexibility, bolstering long-term stability.
Negative Factors
Net Profit Margin Decline
Declining net profit margins suggest rising costs or inefficiencies, potentially impacting profitability and long-term financial health.
Cost Pressures
Sustained cost pressures from tariffs and commodities could erode margins, affecting profitability and competitive positioning.
Integration Costs
High integration costs from acquisitions may strain financial resources and delay expected synergies, impacting short-term performance.

Celsius Holdings (CELH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Celsius Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCelsius Holdings, Inc. develops, processes, markets, distributes, and sells functional drinks and liquid supplements in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It offers various carbonated and non-carbonated functional energy drinks under the CELSIUS Originals name; dietary supplement in carbonated flavors, including apple jack'd, orangesicle, inferno punch, cherry lime, blueberry pomegranate, strawberry dragon fruit, tangerine grapefruit, and jackfruit under the CELSIUS HEAT name; and branched-chain amino acids functional energy drink that fuels muscle recovery under the CELSIUS BCCA+ENERGY name. The company also provides CELSIUS On-the-Go, a powdered form of the active ingredients in functional energy drinks in individual On-The-Go packets and canisters; and sparkling grapefruit, cucumber lime, and orange pomegranate, as well as pineapple coconut, watermelon berry, and strawberries and cream non-carbonated functional energy drinks under the CELSIUS Sweetened. It distributes its products through direct-to-store delivery distributors and direct to retailers, including supermarkets, convenience stores, drug stores, nutritional stores, and mass merchants, as well as health clubs, spas, gyms, the military, and e-commerce websites. The company was formerly known as Vector Ventures, Inc. and changed its name to Celsius Holdings, Inc. in January 2007. Celsius Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyCelsius Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its energy drinks and dietary supplements. The company leverages various sales channels, including direct-to-consumer sales via its website, retail partnerships with grocery chains, convenience stores, and fitness-focused establishments. Key revenue streams include the sale of branded energy drinks, which are available in both traditional retail and online platforms. Additionally, Celsius has established significant partnerships with distributors and retailers, enhancing its market reach and visibility. The company also benefits from increasing consumer trends towards healthier lifestyles and functional beverages, allowing it to capture a growing segment of health-conscious consumers.

Celsius Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsCelsius Holdings' North American revenue experienced a sharp decline in Q3 2024, reflecting challenges highlighted in their earnings call, such as slowed velocity and changes in distributor incentives. However, international revenue surged by 41%, driven by strong growth in markets like the UK and Australia. The acquisition of Alani Nu is expected to bolster their market share and drive future growth. Despite a 7% overall revenue decline, the company is focusing on operational excellence and international expansion to sustain growth in 2025.
Data provided by:The Fly

Celsius Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong top-line scale (record $2.5B) and meaningful operating progress: accelerated Alani performance (Q4 pro forma +136%), CELSIUS recovery (+7.5% FY; +12.8% tracked Q4), sizable adjusted EBITDA growth and disciplined capital actions (cash generation, $200M debt reduction, $40M buyback). At the same time, near-term challenges from integration costs, inventory timing/GAAP vs scanner mismatches, Q4 gross margin compression (47.4% vs 50.2% prior year) and input-cost/tariff pressures were discussed as transitory headwinds that management expects to moderate as integrations complete (Alani by end-Q1 2026; Rockstar by H1 2026). Overall the positives (record revenue, brand momentum, strong adjusted EBITDA and cash generation, and clear integration milestones) substantially outweigh the near-term integration-related lowlights.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Revenue and Portfolio Scale
Delivered record fiscal 2025 revenue of $2.5 billion; portfolio now includes two $1B+ brands and represents ~1/5 of the U.S. tracked energy market, demonstrating significant scale.
Alani Nu Acceleration and Distribution Gains
Alani achieved record Q4 net sales of $370 million (pro forma growth of 136% year-over-year for the quarter) and contributed ~$1 billion to net sales in the nine months since acquisition; substantial DSD transition into Pepsi substantially complete with continued triple-digit space gains.
CELSIUS Brand Recovery and Retail Expansion
Brand CELSIUS delivered full year net sales of $1.46 billion, up 7.5% year-over-year; scanner/tracked sales were +12.8% in Q4 and the brand achieved ~17% additional shelf space for 2026.
Strong Profitability and Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $134.1 million versus $62.9 million a year ago (≈+113%); Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin ~18.6%; full-year adjusted EBITDA $619.6 million with a 24.6% margin; GAAP net income for FY2025 of $108 million and Q4 GAAP net income of $24.7 million.
Cash Flow Generation and Capital Deployment
Operating cash flow was $359 million; year-end cash of $399 million; total debt of ~$670 million was reduced by approximately $200 million during the quarter; repurchased $40 million of shares and have $260 million remaining under repurchase authorization.
Integration Progress and One-Time Net Benefit
Substantial progress integrating Alani into Pepsi (U.S. DSD substantially complete) and on track to complete Alani integration by end of Q1 2026 and Rockstar integration in H1 2026; inventory timing and sequencing produced an approximate $25 million net benefit to reported results in Q4.
Product & Marketing Investments to Drive Growth
National rollout of Fizz-Free line, sustained LTO cadence (e.g., Cherry Bomb sold out in record time; Lime Slush launched), creation of an in-house brand studio, and expansion into international markets (~10 markets) with a dedicated President of International to scale thoughtfully.
Negative Updates
Q4 Gross Margin Compression
Gross profit for Q4 rose to $341.8 million but gross profit margin declined to 47.4% from 50.2% in prior-year Q4 (≈280 basis points decline), driven by dilution from Rockstar, higher costs related to integrations, tariffs and one-time transition costs.
Timing/Accounting Impacts Caused Scanner vs GAAP Mismatch
Brand CELSIUS scanner/tracked growth (+12.8% in Q4) contrasted with a GAAP reported sales decline of 7.7% for CELSIUS in Q4 due to timing and sequencing of inventory movement; Rockstar sales during integration were partially recorded in other income ($6M Q4; $13M full year) rather than net sales, complicating comparability.
Material Integration and Transition Costs
Significant distributor termination and integration costs included $81 million in Q4 and $327.5 million for the full year; additional acquisition/integration and related costs of ~$60.2 million for the year; some one-time COGS write-offs and scrap noted.
Working Capital Volatility and Inventory Positioning
Inventory positioning and large customer ordering cycles during the transitions created working capital volatility and timing effects on shipments and recognized revenue; management expects this variability to moderate as integrations complete.
Input Cost Pressure and Macro Risks
Tariffs, aluminum and a Midwest premium were called out as near-term pressure points that weigh on COGS and margin timing; sustained pressure could delay margin normalization.
Elevated Absolute Debt Level Despite Reduction
Total debt remains approximately $670 million even after a ~$200 million reduction in the quarter — leverage has been meaningfully reduced but remains a balance-sheet consideration as the company continues to invest in integration and growth.
Company Guidance
Management guided that integration and timing impacts should moderate through H1 2026 as Alani Nu’s Pepsi DSD transition is expected to be substantially complete by end‑Q1 2026 (Alani cost structure in place by end‑Q1) and Rockstar’s integration (U.S. to finished‑goods in Q1; Canada in H1) is expected to be complete in the first half of 2026 (Rockstar cost structure by end‑Q2); they expect margins to expand across 2026 back to a normalized low‑50% gross margin (mid‑50s possible over the next few years) after Q4’s 47.4% gross margin (FY gross margin 50.4%), driven by raw‑material, scrap, tolling, freight and mix improvements, with one‑time Q4 transition costs behind them; the company reiterated focus on tightening shipment/takeaway alignment, working‑capital discipline and free‑cash‑flow generation (ended 2025 with $399M cash, ~$670M total debt after ~ $200M of debt paydown, operating cash flow $359M), highlighted a ~$25M net benefit from CELSIUS/Alani inventory movements, and signaled continued capital return optionality after repurchasing $40M of stock (≈$260M remaining), all while expecting adjusted EBITDA to benefit (Q4 adjusted EBITDA $134.1M, margin ~18.6%; FY adjusted EBITDA $619.6M, margin ~24.6%) as distribution and cost integrations complete.

Celsius Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong topline and cash generation support the score: TTM revenue is up 27.57% and free cash flow grew 148.34%, with a healthy 51.38% gross margin. Offsetting this, profitability is currently thin and pressured (TTM net margin 2.57% with declining EBIT/EBITDA margins), and ROE is low at 3.41%, indicating weaker returns despite a stable balance sheet (D/E 0.72).
Income Statement
75
Positive
Celsius Holdings shows strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) increase of 27.57%. The gross profit margin is healthy at 51.38%, indicating efficient production and sales processes. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 2.57% in the TTM, suggesting rising costs or other expenses impacting profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting potential operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging debt. The return on equity is relatively low at 3.41% in the TTM, suggesting limited returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is robust, showing a strong capital structure with significant equity financing.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Celsius Holdings demonstrates impressive free cash flow growth of 148.34% in the TTM, highlighting effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.23, indicating a conservative cash flow relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.89, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.13B1.36B1.32B653.60M314.27M130.73M
Gross Profit1.09B680.21M633.14M270.87M128.17M60.97M
EBITDA129.61M163.00M269.59M-155.88M-2.79M11.32M
Net Income64.38M145.07M226.80M-187.28M3.94M8.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.27B1.77B1.54B1.22B314.02M131.29M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments805.96M890.19M755.98M614.16M16.25M43.25M
Total Debt861.47M20.25M2.19M1.22M1.37M1.12M
Total Liabilities2.30B542.46M447.87M357.49M96.97M26.96M
Stockholders Equity2.96B1.22B1.09B864.58M217.04M104.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow523.61M239.51M123.78M99.92M-99.74M2.82M
Operating Cash Flow554.55M262.90M141.22M108.18M-96.59M3.40M
Investing Cash Flow-1.36B-101.73M-14.20M-5.67M-1.26M757.00K
Financing Cash Flow832.40M-25.97M-25.22M534.11M71.39M15.57M

Celsius Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price50.61
Price Trends
50DMA
48.84
Positive
100DMA
50.35
Positive
200DMA
49.27
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.54
Negative
RSI
56.44
Neutral
STOCH
90.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CELH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.36, above the 50-day MA of 48.84, and above the 200-day MA of 49.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CELH.

Celsius Holdings Risk Analysis

Celsius Holdings disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Celsius Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Celsius Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$83.57B48.6225.54%7.62%12.77%
72
Outperform
$3.15B46.2324.16%23.12%16.20%
70
Outperform
$3.53B18.7240.93%0.97%0.36%
69
Neutral
$13.07B556.773.06%55.07%-87.01%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
62
Neutral
$7.08B-63.20-2.08%2.44%244.82%-119.23%
46
Neutral
$112.51M-6.82-23.12%6.17%41.09%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CELH
Celsius Holdings
50.61
24.62
94.73%
PRMB
Primo Brands
19.63
-13.46
-40.68%
MNST
Monster Beverage
85.41
33.49
64.50%
FIZZ
National Beverage
37.26
-2.32
-5.86%
ZVIA
Zevia PBC
1.55
-0.68
-30.49%
COCO
Vita Coco Company
55.07
22.86
70.97%

Celsius Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Celsius Holdings Announces $300 Million Share Buyback
Positive
Nov 10, 2025

On November 10, 2025, Celsius Holdings announced a $300 million share repurchase program authorized by its Board of Directors. This move highlights the company’s strong financial position and cash generation capabilities, allowing it to repurchase shares when undervalued while continuing to invest in growth initiatives across its functional beverages portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (CELH) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Celsius Holdings stock, see the CELH Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Celsius Holdings Reports Significant Q3 2025 Revenue Growth
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Celsius Holdings reported a significant revenue increase for the third quarter of 2025, reaching $725.1 million, primarily driven by the acquisition of Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy, and the growth of the CELSIUS brand. Despite a net income loss, the company achieved a 173% revenue growth compared to the previous year, reflecting strong consumer demand and strategic distribution enhancements. The partnership with PepsiCo and the expansion of their energy drink portfolio have positioned Celsius Holdings for future growth, although the company faced increased expenses due to distributor termination costs and marketing investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (CELH) stock is a Buy with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Celsius Holdings stock, see the CELH Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 21, 2026