Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
NASDAQ:CEG
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Constellation Energy Corporation
(NASDAQ:CEG)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$318.00
â–²(9.01% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is led by solid profitability and a constructive earnings outlook with strong multi-year growth targets and capital return plans. Offsetting this are weak/volatile cash-flow quality, currently soft technical momentum, and a demanding valuation (high P/E with a low dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Scale & Low‑Carbon Fleet
The combined fleet's scale and dominant carbon‑free output (large nuclear base and outperformance vs. peers) create a durable competitive moat. High, reliable nuclear capacity supports long‑term contracted sales, grid reliability revenues and premium pricing for firm low‑carbon power.
Negative Factors
Cash‑Flow Volatility
Large swings in operating and free cash flow, driven by working capital, timing of investments and integration CTAs, undermine cash‑conversion reliability. This persistent volatility can strain funding for capex, dividends and buybacks and complicate multi‑year cash planning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Low‑Carbon Fleet
The combined fleet's scale and dominant carbon‑free output (large nuclear base and outperformance vs. peers) create a durable competitive moat. High, reliable nuclear capacity supports long‑term contracted sales, grid reliability revenues and premium pricing for firm low‑carbon power.
Read all positive factors
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$103.71B
Dividend Yield0.43%
Average Volume (3M)2.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)47.7
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth21.35%
EPS Growth-3.93%
CountryUS
Employees14,215
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.30
Shares Outstanding362,294,680
10 Day Avg. Volume2,927,366
30 Day Avg. Volume2,952,951
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.26
Price to Book (P/B)7.62
Price to Sales (P/S)4.33
P/FCF Ratio85.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$376.92Price Target Upside29.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)11.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$31.08B
Constellation Energy Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Constellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It sells natural gas, renewable energy, and other e...
How the Company Makes Money
CEG primarily makes money through two connected activities: (1) generating electricity and selling it into wholesale markets and through bilateral contracts, and (2) marketing and selling electricity and related energy products/services to end-use...
Constellation Energy Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Nuclear Generation by Geography
Maps out nuclear energy production across various locations, reflecting the company's commitment to stable, low-carbon power generation and its strategic positioning in different regulatory environments.
Maps out nuclear energy production across various locations, reflecting the company's commitment to stable, low-carbon power generation and its strategic positioning in different regulatory environments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyConstellation Energy Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong strategic and financial momentum following the Calpine acquisition: a visible 20% base EPS CAGR to 2029, large contracting optionality (48M MWh under contract for 2030 and ~147M MWh available), enlarged scale and a solid balance sheet (credit affirmations, $5B buyback authorization, $13.6B deployable over 2026–2027). Management also acknowledged near-term headwinds tied to regulatory uncertainty (PJM/executive order), required asset divestitures, higher noncash depreciation from purchase accounting, and project/interconnection timing risks (e.g., Crane). Overall, the positives (visible growth runway, strong cash generation, investment-grade credit access, substantial uncontracted clean megawatts and a disciplined capital allocation framework) materially outweigh the listed near-term challenges, which are primarily execution and timing risks rather than structural business failures.Positive Updates
Ambitious Base EPS Growth Target
Management forecasted base earnings to grow at a 20% CAGR through 2029, with base EPS rising from $6.65 (2026 base framework) to $11.40–$11.90 in 2029. They also target a minimum rolling 3-year base EPS growth of ~10% thereafter.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Uncertainty and Deal Delays (PJM / Executive Order)
President's executive order and ensuing PJM rule-making introduced new requirements that forced renegotiation or rethinking of some planned PPAs and contributed to delays; management reported increased scrutiny on data center development and said they were not announcing new data-economy deals at the call.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Ambitious Base EPS Growth Target
Management forecasted base earnings to grow at a 20% CAGR through 2029, with base EPS rising from $6.65 (2026 base framework) to $11.40–$11.90 in 2029. They also target a minimum rolling 3-year base EPS growth of ~10% thereafter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Constellation guided 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11.00–$12.00 (after reporting $9.39 in 2025), with a disclosed base EPS of $6.65 in 2026 growing to $11.40–$11.90 in 2029 — a stated base EPS CAGR of at least 20% through 2029 and a minimum rolling 3‑year CAGR of 10% thereafter; enhanced earnings are expected to be ~40% of 2026 EPS (settling to ~30–35% over time). Key quantitative levers and sensitivities include: 48 million MWh contracted for 2030 (up from 12 million) with ~147 million MWh still available, >10,000 MW of executed deals plus an additional 36 million MWh, and the option to add ~10 GW of support capacity (400 MW new gas this year, 1,400 MW idled turbines, 1,100 MW uprates, 9,600 MW of batteries, 1,000 MW demand response); a 1 GW nuclear deal could add $0.40–$1.00/sh, 1 GW of gas could add $0.20–$0.50/sh, and a 1–2% rise in gas capacity factors could add $0.10–$0.20/sh. Financial policy metrics: $3.9 billion of growth projects (targeting ≥10% unlevered IRR) and a planned ~$13.6 billion deployable over 2026–27 (after expected asset-sale proceeds), $3.4 billion earmarked to delever Calpine debt by end‑2027, dividend growth of ~10%/yr, an increased $5 billion buyback authorization, target consolidated leverage near ~2x debt/EBITDA over time, and affirmed investment‑grade ratings supported by recent financings (40‑yr $2.75B issuance at 5.75% and a $1B DOE loan).Constellation Energy Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 25.53B | 23.57B | 24.92B | 24.44B | 19.65B |
| Gross Profit | 19.36B | 5.99B | 3.30B | 2.14B | 2.75B |
| EBITDA | 5.01B | 6.97B | 4.22B | 2.92B | 3.81B |
| Net Income | 2.32B | 3.75B | 1.62B | -160.00M | -205.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 57.25B | 52.93B | 50.76B | 46.91B | 48.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.75B | 3.02B | 368.00M | 422.00M | 504.00M |
| Total Debt | 8.99B | 8.41B | 9.26B | 5.77B | 8.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 42.40B | 39.39B | 39.47B | 35.54B | 36.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.52B | 13.17B | 10.93B | 11.02B | 11.22B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.29B | -5.03B | -7.72B | -4.04B | -2.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.24B | -2.46B | -5.30B | -2.35B | -1.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.20B | 7.43B | 3.03B | 3.10B | 3.28B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -420.00M | -2.29B | 2.20B | -799.00M | -1.70B |
Constellation Energy Corporation Technical Analysis
Neutral
291.72
Price Trends
294.55
Negative
318.11
Negative
327.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.92
Negative
49.45
Neutral
58.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CEG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 291.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 291.71, below the 50-day MA of 294.55, and below the 200-day MA of 327.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CEG.
Constellation Energy Corporation Risk Analysis
Constellation Energy Corporation disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Energy Corporation reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Constellation Energy Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $8.42B | 23.42 | 5.91% | 5.60% | 2.54% | 124.89% | |
67 Neutral | $196.02B | 24.54 | 13.05% | 2.84% | 26.96% | -6.80% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
63 Neutral | $103.71B | 47.68 | 16.78% | 0.43% | 21.35% | -3.93% | |
58 Neutral | $52.38B | 58.07 | 18.91% | 0.56% | 42.77% | -47.64% | |
55 Neutral | $10.26B | 10.76 | 20.40% | 5.06% | -1.55% | 12.83% | |
55 Neutral | $7.67B | -2.94 | -1196.72% | 3.84% | 5.93% | -39.88% |
* Utilities Sector Average
CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
291.72
84.35
40.68%
NEE
NextEra Energy
92.30
26.59
40.47%
AES
AES
14.40
4.69
48.24%
VST
Vistra Corp
158.20
43.04
37.37%
CWEN.A
Clearway Energy
39.61
13.99
54.58%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable
41.90
16.27
63.50%
Constellation Energy Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Energy Outlines 2026 Outlook and Growth Plans
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
Constellation said it will host a conference call on March 31, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern to present its 2026 business and earnings outlook, with materials available via webcast and its investor relations website. The company highlighted a plan fo...
Executive/Board Changes
Constellation Energy Director Resignation Triggers Governance Change
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
Constellation Energy Corporation reported that board member Alan Armstrong resigned from its Board of Directors on March 23, 2026. The same-day effectiveness of his resignation signals an immediate change in the company’s governance structur...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Constellation Energy Completes Strategic Acquisition of Calpine
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation and its subsidiary Constellation Energy Generation completed the acquisition of Calpine Corporation under a merger agreement initially signed on January 10, 2025, converting Calpine into Calpine...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Energy Finalizes Calpine Acquisition, Expands Clean Power
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Constellation Energy reported fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP net income of $1.38 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $2.30 per share, with full-year 2025 GAAP net income of $7.40 per share and adjusted operating earnings rising to $9.39 per sha...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Energy completes Calpine exchange offers, streamlining debt
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation completed its previously announced merger under which Calpine Corporation became a wholly owned subsidiary, with Calpine remaining the issuer of nearly $2.4 billion of senior and senior secured ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Completes High-Participation Exchange of Calpine Notes
Positive
Jan 13, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced the expiration and final results of its private exchange offers and related consent solicitations for outstanding notes issued by Calpine Corporation, following the completion of ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Constellation Energy Completes Calpine Acquisition, Expands Generation Fleet
Positive
Jan 7, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Constellation completed its acquisition of Calpine Corporation from Energy Capital Partners in a cash-and-stock deal that included 50 million newly issued Constellation shares and $4.5 billion in cash (subject to expenses), mak...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.