Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $102.08B
• Dividend Yield: 0.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 47.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.75
• Revenue Growth: 21.35%
• EPS Growth: -3.93%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,215
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 2.30
• Shares Outstanding: 361,990,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,944,201
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,471,880
• PEG Ratio: -1.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 85.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.10
• 1Y Price Target: $395.43
• Price Target Upside: 40.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 11.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $29.83B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $299.00 ▲(6.03% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is driven mainly by solid underlying profitability and a positive earnings-call setup (strong nuclear operations and tightened guidance), offset by volatile cash-flow quality, a technically weak price trend versus key moving averages, and a demanding valuation with low dividend support.

Positive Factors

Nuclear fleet reliability

A 96.8% fleet capacity factor materially raises baseline generation output and lowers per‑MWh fixed costs versus peers. Persistently high nuclear availability supports stable wholesale and contract revenues, underpins margin sustainability for years, and strengthens contracted supply credibility with large customers.

Scale and diversified generation from Calpine deal

Acquiring Calpine expands scale to ~55 GW and adds flexible natural gas and geothermal to Constellation’s low‑carbon nuclear base. The broader, geographically diversified fleet and enlarged commercial platform improve ability to serve data centers and industrials, bolstering long‑term market position and contract origination.

Capital structure simplification and flexibility

Successful note exchange and consent solicitations removed restrictive covenants and released collateral tied to Calpine notes, simplifying the combined capital structure. That increases financing optionality and reduces covenant‑driven constraints, aiding multi‑year integration and investment programs.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash flow quality

Operating and free cash flow have shown sharp swings and inconsistent relationships with net income, driven by working‑capital and investment timing. This volatility reduces predictability of internal funding for capex, acquisitions, dividends and debt service over the next several quarters.

Meaningful absolute debt and financing sensitivity

Although leverage metrics improved, the combined company absorbs substantial Calpine indebtedness and retains sizable absolute debt. That leaves cash flows sensitive to higher interest costs and large utility‑scale investments, constraining flexibility if market or rate conditions worsen.

Regulatory divestiture and integration execution risk

DOJ‑driven divestitures (4.4 GW sale) and other required remedies reduce the pro‑forma asset base and create execution risk around timing, pricing adjustments and replacing customer relationships. Integration of Calpine plus mandated disposals raises operational and commercial uncertainty for months ahead.

Constellation Energy Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Constellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It sells natural gas, renewable energy, and other energy-related products and services. The company has 32,400 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities; municipalities; cooperatives; and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.

How the Company Makes Money

CEG primarily makes money through two connected activities: (1) generating electricity and selling it into wholesale markets and through bilateral contracts, and (2) marketing and selling electricity and related energy products/services to end-use customers. 1) Wholesale generation revenue: CEG earns revenue by producing electricity (especially from its nuclear fleet) and selling that power at prevailing wholesale market prices (e.g., day-ahead/real-time markets) or under longer-term contracts such as power purchase agreements and other structured transactions. Cash flow depends on the quantity of electricity produced (availability/capacity factors), realized power prices, and the company’s cost to operate its fleet (fuel, operations and maintenance, refueling outages for nuclear, etc.). In some market regions, generators can also earn additional market-based revenues tied to reliability products (e.g., capacity or ancillary services) when available; the specific mix and magnitude vary by market rules and are not provided here. 2) Retail/energy marketing revenue: CEG sells electricity supply to customers under retail and commercial/industrial contracts. Revenue is generally the contracted price times the delivered energy volume. To serve these contracts, CEG sources electricity from its own generation, from wholesale market purchases, and/or from structured supply arrangements. Profit is driven by the margin between the retail/customer price and the company’s net cost to procure or produce the energy (including hedging costs). 3) Risk management and hedging: A key factor in how CEG monetizes its generation is its use of hedging and contracting. The company can lock in forward power prices or customer margins using physical contracts and financial instruments (e.g., forwards, swaps, options). These activities can reduce earnings volatility, but reported results can also reflect mark-to-market impacts on derivatives and contracts depending on accounting treatment. 4) Environmental and policy-related attributes: Depending on the jurisdiction and program rules, CEG may earn revenue from selling environmental attributes associated with low-carbon generation (such as renewable energy credits or other clean-energy credits). The availability and materiality of specific credit programs for CEG are not provided here. 5) Other items affecting earnings: CEG’s earnings are influenced by operational performance (plant output and outages), regional power market fundamentals (fuel prices, demand, transmission constraints), regulatory or market design changes, and counterparty/customer mix. Specific partnerships and their financial contribution are not available from the information provided, so they are null.

Constellation Energy Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and revenue trends are solid and leverage looks reasonable for a utility, but cash-flow quality is a clear weak spot due to large swings and inconsistent cash conversion. A noted data-quality conflict around gross profit also reduces confidence in parts of the margin picture.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up strongly versus the prior year and profitability remains solid, with healthy operating and EBITDA margins and positive net income. However, profitability has cooled from 2024 levels (lower net margin and lower operating/EBITDA margins), and the negative gross profit figure in TTM conflicts with the stated gross margin, creating a data-quality flag that limits confidence in the gross profit trend. Overall, earnings power looks good but somewhat less consistent than the prior year peak.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for a utility profile: debt-to-equity is moderate in TTM and has improved materially versus 2023, while equity has grown. Returns on equity are strong in TTM (and were even higher in 2024), signaling effective capital utilization. The key weakness is that debt remains meaningful in absolute dollars, so results are still somewhat sensitive to financing costs and large capital spending needs typical of the industry.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is improving in TTM with positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, a notable turnaround from the deeply negative operating and free cash flow in 2022–2024. That said, free cash flow has swung sharply lower versus 2024 (very large negative growth rate), and cash flow metrics versus earnings are inconsistent across periods (including negative/unstable relationships between free cash flow and net income), pointing to volatility likely driven by working capital and/or investment timing. Overall cash flow quality is the main weak spot despite the recent rebound.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.53B	23.57B	24.92B	24.44B	19.65B
Gross Profit	19.36B	5.99B	3.30B	2.14B	2.75B
EBITDA	5.01B	6.97B	4.22B	2.92B	3.81B
Net Income	2.32B	3.75B	1.62B	-160.00M	-205.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	57.25B	52.93B	50.76B	46.91B	48.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.75B	3.02B	368.00M	422.00M	504.00M
Total Debt	8.99B	8.41B	9.26B	5.77B	8.20B
Total Liabilities	42.40B	39.39B	39.47B	35.54B	36.47B
Stockholders Equity	14.52B	13.17B	10.93B	11.02B	11.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.29B	-5.03B	-7.72B	-4.04B	-2.67B
Operating Cash Flow	4.24B	-2.46B	-5.30B	-2.35B	-1.34B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.20B	7.43B	3.03B	3.10B	3.28B
Financing Cash Flow	-420.00M	-2.29B	2.20B	-799.00M	-1.70B

Constellation Energy Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 281.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CEG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 281.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 314.02, below the 50-day MA of 300.90, and below the 200-day MA of 328.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CEG.

Constellation Energy Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CWEN.A	69 Neutral	$7.68B	23.42	5.91%	5.60%	2.54%	124.89%
NEE	67 Neutral	$186.48B	24.54	13.05%	2.84%	26.96%	-6.80%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
CEG	62 Neutral	$102.08B	47.68	16.78%	0.43%	21.35%	-3.93%
VST	58 Neutral	$49.20B	58.07	18.91%	0.56%	42.77%	-47.64%
BEPC	55 Neutral	$6.96B	-2.94	-1196.72%	3.84%	5.93%	-39.88%
AES	52 Neutral	$10.05B	10.76	20.35%	5.06%	-1.55%	12.83%

Constellation Energy Corporation Corporate Events

Constellation Energy Completes Strategic Acquisition of Calpine

On January 7, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation and its subsidiary Constellation Energy Generation completed the acquisition of Calpine Corporation under a merger agreement initially signed on January 10, 2025, converting Calpine into Calpine LLC as an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary. The transaction is supported by audited historical financials for Calpine through 2025 and unaudited pro forma combined financial statements for Constellation and Calpine, signaling a significant expansion of Constellation’s generation portfolio and scale, with implications for its financial profile, competitive position in U.S. power markets, and the integration outlook for Calpine’s sizable debt and operating assets.

The filing of Calpine’s detailed annual financial report for the year ended December 31, 2025, including extensive disclosures on its capital structure and credit facilities, provides investors with transparency into the balance sheet Constellation is absorbing. Together with the pro forma data showing the combined entity’s performance as of year-end 2025, this information equips creditors and equity holders to evaluate post-merger leverage, cash flow capacity, and the strategic fit of Calpine’s generation and retail operations within Constellation’s broader business.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $356.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Constellation Energy Finalizes Calpine Acquisition, Expands Clean Power

Constellation Energy reported fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP net income of $1.38 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $2.30 per share, with full-year 2025 GAAP net income of $7.40 per share and adjusted operating earnings rising to $9.39 per share, despite lower GAAP results versus 2024. Management highlighted strong nuclear fleet performance and market conditions, while noting that unfavorable nuclear production tax credit portfolio results weighed on earnings.

On Jan. 7, 2026, Constellation completed its acquisition of Calpine Corporation, creating what it calls the nation’s largest producer of electricity by combining zero-emission nuclear with natural gas and geothermal assets. The company also advanced its data center strategy with new power and infrastructure agreements at Texas sites, secured 20-year NRC license extensions for its Clinton and Dresden nuclear plants, obtained a $1 billion DOE loan guarantee to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center underpinned by a 20-year PPA with Microsoft, and raised its dividend 10 percent while signaling continued shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $460.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Constellation Energy completes Calpine exchange offers, streamlining debt

On January 7, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation completed its previously announced merger under which Calpine Corporation became a wholly owned subsidiary, with Calpine remaining the issuer of nearly $2.4 billion of senior and senior secured notes. On January 15, 2026, Constellation completed private exchange offers for any and all outstanding Calpine notes, with approximately $2.29 billion in principal amount validly tendered, retired and canceled in exchange for new Constellation notes carrying the same interest rates, maturities and payment dates, and it secured consents to amend Calpine’s note indentures to remove most restrictive covenants and events of default, thereby simplifying its capital structure and increasing financial and operational flexibility for the combined company and its bondholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $376.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Constellation Completes High-Participation Exchange of Calpine Notes

On January 13, 2026, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced the expiration and final results of its private exchange offers and related consent solicitations for outstanding notes issued by Calpine Corporation, following the completion of Constellation’s acquisition of Calpine on January 7, 2026. The exchange offers, which expired on January 12, 2026, achieved very high participation, with approximately 99.51% of Calpine’s 4.625% senior unsecured notes due 2029, 99.73% of its 5.000% senior unsecured notes due 2031, and 88.36% of its 3.750% senior secured notes due 2031 validly tendered, enabling Constellation to issue new unsecured notes on substantially similar terms while securing consents to strip most restrictive covenants and events of default from the Calpine indentures and to release collateral on the secured 2031 notes. This restructuring of Calpine’s debt into Constellation-issued notes, with settlement expected around January 15, 2026, simplifies the combined company’s capital structure, reduces covenant constraints, and marks a significant step in integrating Calpine’s financing into Constellation’s balance sheet, affecting both noteholders’ rights and the company’s financial flexibility going forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $440.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Constellation Energy Completes Calpine Acquisition, Expands Generation Fleet

On January 7, 2026, Constellation completed its acquisition of Calpine Corporation from Energy Capital Partners in a cash-and-stock deal that included 50 million newly issued Constellation shares and $4.5 billion in cash (subject to expenses), making Calpine a wholly owned subsidiary and creating what the company describes as the nation’s largest producer of electricity. In connection with the closing, Constellation granted former Calpine shareholders registration rights over their stock consideration, subject to a staged lock-up ending in 2027, while Calpine and its subsidiaries retained their existing capital structure, including multiple series of unsecured and secured notes with defined coupon, maturity and redemption terms, as well as substantial term loan facilities at Calpine Construction Finance Company and Geysers Power Company that were recently refinanced, upsized or repriced; these debt covenants place limits on additional liens, indebtedness and certain corporate transactions. The merger and related internal reorganization, completed between January 2 and January 7, 2026, also triggered the cash-and-stock vesting and cancellation of Calpine equity awards and resulted in former Calpine shareholders owning about 13.8% of Constellation’s outstanding common stock, while the combined company now controls 55 gigawatts of largely clean and flexible generation capacity aimed at serving surging power demand from data centers, advanced manufacturing and critical infrastructure, particularly in high-growth markets such as Texas and California. Governance changes accompanied the deal’s close, with long-serving finance executive Shane Smith elevated to executive vice president and chief financial officer and designated principal financial officer, while former CFO Daniel Eggers assumed a newly created senior executive role overseeing finance and the data economy, as Constellation seeks to leverage the enlarged generation fleet and commercial platform to scale advanced nuclear, geothermal, carbon capture and long-duration storage technologies and deepen its community and workforce investments from headquarters in Baltimore and a major presence in Houston.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $520.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Constellation Energy Extends Calpine Notes Exchange Offer Deadline

On December 23, 2025, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced that it had extended the expiration of its private exchange offers for Calpine Corporation’s outstanding 2029 and 2031 notes and the related consent solicitations from January 8, 2026 to January 12, 2026, while keeping the withdrawal deadline, which passed on December 22, 2025, unchanged. The company reported very high early participation, with about 99.5% of unsecured 2029 notes, 99.6% of unsecured 2031 notes and 88.3% of secured 2031 notes tendered, enabling it to secure the necessary consents to strip most restrictive covenants and events of default from the Calpine indentures and to release collateral securing the 2031 secured notes, with these amendments to become operative only upon settlement of the exchange offers and completion of the pending merger between Constellation Energy Corporation and Calpine. The structure offers equal-principal Constellation notes plus modest cash to early tendering holders, and a slightly reduced principal amount with no cash for later tenders, underscoring an effort to streamline Calpine’s capital structure and shift obligations onto Constellation’s balance sheet as a condition to closing the merger transaction, with implications for both companies’ bondholders and post-merger financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Hold with a $394.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.