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Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
NASDAQ:CEG

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) AI Stock Analysis

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CEG

Constellation Energy Corporation

(NASDAQ:CEG)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$326.00
â–²(13.41% Upside)
The score is primarily held back by weak technical trends and cash-flow quality (negative free cash flow) despite solid underlying business performance and a stable balance sheet. Positive earnings-call execution and constructive corporate developments (Calpine integration and financing actions) support the score, while a high P/E and low dividend yield limit valuation appeal.
Positive Factors
High nuclear fleet reliability
A 96.8% fleet-wide capacity factor signals industry-leading nuclear availability, which underpins stable baseload generation, predictable merchant and contract revenues, and lower unit operating costs. Sustained reliability enhances long-term cash flow visibility and supports capacity market participation.
Material scale boost from Calpine deal
Adding Calpine builds scale to 55 GW of largely clean, flexible generation, strengthening market position in high-growth regions (TX, CA) and improving ability to serve data centers and industrial loads. Scale improves contracting leverage, dispatch optimization and investment economics over years.
Federal support for nuclear investment
A $1B DOE loan guarantee materially de-risks the Christopher M. Crane restart, lowering financing cost and enabling a large nuclear repowering. Federal backing supports long-duration, carbon-free capacity growth and increases project bankability for multi-year capital programs.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Negative free cash flow despite solid operating cash highlights that investment or working capital needs exceed internal generation. Persistently negative FCF constrains debt paydown, organic investment and shareholder returns, and increases reliance on external financing over multiple quarters.
Declining profitability margins
Falling net, EBIT and EBITDA margins reduce underlying earnings power and cash generation per unit of revenue. If sustained, margin pressure erodes return on capital and limits funding for capital-intensive nuclear and storage projects, increasing sensitivity to commodity and O&M cost swings.
Calpine acquisition raises leverage and integration risk
The Calpine close enlarged the company and transferred substantial Calpine liabilities onto the combined balance sheet. Higher absolute debt, retained Calpine facilities and cross-entity covenants increase refinancing and covenant risk during integration, pressuring financial flexibility for years.

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Constellation Energy Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConstellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It sells natural gas, renewable energy, and other energy-related products and services. The company has 32,400 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities; municipalities; cooperatives; and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.
How the Company Makes MoneyConstellation Energy Corporation generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from the sale of electricity and natural gas to customers across different sectors. The company operates a diversified portfolio of power generation facilities, including nuclear, solar, and natural gas plants, which allow it to produce and sell energy competitively. Additionally, Constellation earns revenue from energy marketing and trading services, where it engages in buying and selling electricity on the wholesale market. The company also benefits from long-term contracts with commercial and industrial clients, which provide stable cash flows. Strategic partnerships with technology firms and investments in renewable energy projects further contribute to its earnings, as the demand for cleaner energy continues to grow. Overall, Constellation's focus on sustainability and efficiency positions it well in the evolving energy landscape.

Constellation Energy Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Nuclear Generation by Geography
Nuclear Generation by Geography
Maps out nuclear energy production across various locations, reflecting the company's commitment to stable, low-carbon power generation and its strategic positioning in different regulatory environments.
Chart InsightsConstellation Energy's nuclear generation in ERCOT has surged since late 2023, marking a strategic expansion into this region. This aligns with their recent power purchase agreement with Meta and regulatory support from the One Big Beautiful Bill, which enhances nuclear incentives. While Midwest and Mid-Atlantic outputs remain stable, the New York segment shows fluctuations. The company's strong financial performance and operational excellence, highlighted in the earnings call, underscore its commitment to expanding clean energy, despite challenges in capacity auctions and interconnection processes.
Data provided by:The Fly

Constellation Energy Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 07, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong operational and financial performance, with significant achievements such as increased earnings, high nuclear fleet reliability, and progress on strategic acquisitions. Public support for nuclear energy is also increasing, bolstering future prospects. However, there are some challenges, including O&M headwinds from stock compensation and interconnection delays for large load customers in the data economy.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Constellation delivered third quarter GAAP earnings of $2.97 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $3.04 per share, higher than the third quarter of last year. The company also narrowed its full-year guidance to $9.05 to $9.45 per share.
Nuclear Fleet Reliability
The nuclear fleet achieved a capacity factor of 96.8%, consistently outperforming the industry average by about 4%, which equates to the equivalent of an additional reactor's worth of power on a full-year basis.
Progress on Calpine Acquisition
The Calpine acquisition remains on track to close in the fourth quarter, with no significant delays noted from the government shutdown.
Maryland Agreement for Conowingo Dam
Reached a landmark agreement with the state of Maryland for the continued operation of Conowingo Dam for the next 50 years, contributing to Maryland's clean energy goals.
Increasing Public Support for Nuclear
Nearly 3/4 of the public supports nuclear energy, with 9 out of 10 people in favor of extending licenses on existing plants and 2 out of 3 supporting new nuclear plant construction.
Negative Updates
O&M Headwinds from Stock Compensation Plans
Outstanding stock performance this year has triggered stock compensation plans, creating nonrecurring O&M headwinds.
Interconnection Challenges for Large Loads
Deals with data economy customers are often delayed due to the speed of interconnection processes, with a call for FERC to develop a standard approach to expedite connections.
Company Guidance
During the Constellation Energy Corporation third quarter earnings call, the company provided several key financial metrics and strategic insights. Constellation reported GAAP earnings of $2.97 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $3.04 per share, both of which exceeded last year's third quarter figures. The company's nuclear team achieved a fleet-wide capacity factor of 96.8%, which is about 4% higher than the industry average. The company narrowed its full-year stand-alone adjusted operating earnings guidance to a range of $9.05 to $9.45 per share, highlighting strong performance from their commercial and generation businesses. Additionally, Constellation emphasized the robust public support for nuclear energy, with nearly 75% of the public in favor and 90% supporting license extensions for existing plants. They also discussed the strategic importance of their existing sites for future nuclear development and highlighted ongoing negotiations in the data economy market, indicating confidence in completing transactions soon.

Constellation Energy Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Solid income-statement strength (revenue growth and much higher gross margin) and a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage are offset by weaker profitability trends (lower net/EBITDA margins) and cash-flow quality concerns, including negative free cash flow and only moderate cash conversion versus net income.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Constellation Energy Corporation shows a strong revenue growth rate of 2.55% in the TTM, indicating positive momentum. The gross profit margin has improved significantly to 64.70%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 11.03% from the previous year, suggesting some pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, indicating potential challenges in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63 in the TTM is relatively stable, showing moderate leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 20.32%, indicating reduced profitability from equity investments. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a strong capital structure. However, the increase in total debt could pose future risks if not managed properly.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The operating cash flow has improved to $2.42 billion in the TTM, indicating better cash generation. However, the free cash flow is negative, showing a significant decline, which could impact future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.32, suggesting moderate cash conversion efficiency. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights potential liquidity concerns.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.45B23.57B24.92B24.44B19.65B17.60B
Gross Profit4.95B5.99B3.30B2.14B2.75B3.27B
EBITDA6.03B6.97B4.22B2.92B3.81B4.31B
Net Income2.74B3.75B1.62B-160.00M-205.00M589.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets56.16B52.93B50.76B46.91B48.09B48.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.09B3.02B368.00M422.00M504.00M226.00M
Total Debt9.04B8.41B9.26B5.77B8.20B7.21B
Total Liabilities41.47B39.39B39.47B35.54B36.47B33.42B
Stockholders Equity14.35B13.17B10.93B11.02B11.22B12.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-276.00M-5.03B-7.72B-4.04B-2.67B-1.16B
Operating Cash Flow2.42B-2.46B-5.30B-2.35B-1.34B584.00M
Investing Cash Flow151.00M7.43B3.03B3.10B3.28B1.96B
Financing Cash Flow-358.00M-2.29B2.20B-799.00M-1.70B-2.66B

Constellation Energy Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price287.45
Price Trends
50DMA
342.13
Negative
100DMA
348.36
Negative
200DMA
322.75
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-18.25
Positive
RSI
32.20
Neutral
STOCH
10.14
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CEG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 287.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 319.85, below the 50-day MA of 342.13, and below the 200-day MA of 322.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -18.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CEG.

Constellation Energy Corporation Risk Analysis

Constellation Energy Corporation disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Energy Corporation reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Constellation Energy Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Neutral
$7.45B14.8313.20%5.60%2.54%124.89%
67
Neutral
$182.37B26.5313.05%2.84%26.96%-6.80%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
$10.82B9.2523.02%5.06%-1.55%12.83%
63
Neutral
$56.12B59.1721.63%0.56%42.77%-47.64%
62
Neutral
$89.92B32.9720.35%0.43%21.35%-3.93%
51
Neutral
$7.30B-5.88-38.17%3.84%5.93%-39.88%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
287.45
-11.20
-3.75%
NEE
NextEra Energy
88.18
18.78
27.06%
AES
AES
15.04
4.51
42.86%
VST
Vistra Corp
162.58
-4.53
-2.71%
CWEN.A
Clearway Energy
33.90
10.82
46.88%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable
39.32
13.84
54.32%

Constellation Energy Corporation Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Energy completes Calpine exchange offers, streamlining debt
Positive
Jan 15, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation completed its previously announced merger under which Calpine Corporation became a wholly owned subsidiary, with Calpine remaining the issuer of nearly $2.4 billion of senior and senior secured notes. On January 15, 2026, Constellation completed private exchange offers for any and all outstanding Calpine notes, with approximately $2.29 billion in principal amount validly tendered, retired and canceled in exchange for new Constellation notes carrying the same interest rates, maturities and payment dates, and it secured consents to amend Calpine’s note indentures to remove most restrictive covenants and events of default, thereby simplifying its capital structure and increasing financial and operational flexibility for the combined company and its bondholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $376.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Completes High-Participation Exchange of Calpine Notes
Positive
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced the expiration and final results of its private exchange offers and related consent solicitations for outstanding notes issued by Calpine Corporation, following the completion of Constellation’s acquisition of Calpine on January 7, 2026. The exchange offers, which expired on January 12, 2026, achieved very high participation, with approximately 99.51% of Calpine’s 4.625% senior unsecured notes due 2029, 99.73% of its 5.000% senior unsecured notes due 2031, and 88.36% of its 3.750% senior secured notes due 2031 validly tendered, enabling Constellation to issue new unsecured notes on substantially similar terms while securing consents to strip most restrictive covenants and events of default from the Calpine indentures and to release collateral on the secured 2031 notes. This restructuring of Calpine’s debt into Constellation-issued notes, with settlement expected around January 15, 2026, simplifies the combined company’s capital structure, reduces covenant constraints, and marks a significant step in integrating Calpine’s financing into Constellation’s balance sheet, affecting both noteholders’ rights and the company’s financial flexibility going forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $440.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Constellation Energy Completes Calpine Acquisition, Expands Generation Fleet
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Constellation completed its acquisition of Calpine Corporation from Energy Capital Partners in a cash-and-stock deal that included 50 million newly issued Constellation shares and $4.5 billion in cash (subject to expenses), making Calpine a wholly owned subsidiary and creating what the company describes as the nation’s largest producer of electricity. In connection with the closing, Constellation granted former Calpine shareholders registration rights over their stock consideration, subject to a staged lock-up ending in 2027, while Calpine and its subsidiaries retained their existing capital structure, including multiple series of unsecured and secured notes with defined coupon, maturity and redemption terms, as well as substantial term loan facilities at Calpine Construction Finance Company and Geysers Power Company that were recently refinanced, upsized or repriced; these debt covenants place limits on additional liens, indebtedness and certain corporate transactions. The merger and related internal reorganization, completed between January 2 and January 7, 2026, also triggered the cash-and-stock vesting and cancellation of Calpine equity awards and resulted in former Calpine shareholders owning about 13.8% of Constellation’s outstanding common stock, while the combined company now controls 55 gigawatts of largely clean and flexible generation capacity aimed at serving surging power demand from data centers, advanced manufacturing and critical infrastructure, particularly in high-growth markets such as Texas and California. Governance changes accompanied the deal’s close, with long-serving finance executive Shane Smith elevated to executive vice president and chief financial officer and designated principal financial officer, while former CFO Daniel Eggers assumed a newly created senior executive role overseeing finance and the data economy, as Constellation seeks to leverage the enlarged generation fleet and commercial platform to scale advanced nuclear, geothermal, carbon capture and long-duration storage technologies and deepen its community and workforce investments from headquarters in Baltimore and a major presence in Houston.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $520.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Energy Extends Calpine Notes Exchange Offer Deadline
Positive
Dec 23, 2025

On December 23, 2025, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced that it had extended the expiration of its private exchange offers for Calpine Corporation’s outstanding 2029 and 2031 notes and the related consent solicitations from January 8, 2026 to January 12, 2026, while keeping the withdrawal deadline, which passed on December 22, 2025, unchanged. The company reported very high early participation, with about 99.5% of unsecured 2029 notes, 99.6% of unsecured 2031 notes and 88.3% of secured 2031 notes tendered, enabling it to secure the necessary consents to strip most restrictive covenants and events of default from the Calpine indentures and to release collateral securing the 2031 secured notes, with these amendments to become operative only upon settlement of the exchange offers and completion of the pending merger between Constellation Energy Corporation and Calpine. The structure offers equal-principal Constellation notes plus modest cash to early tendering holders, and a slightly reduced principal amount with no cash for later tenders, underscoring an effort to streamline Calpine’s capital structure and shift obligations onto Constellation’s balance sheet as a condition to closing the merger transaction, with implications for both companies’ bondholders and post-merger financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Hold with a $394.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Constellation Energy Clears PJM Capacity Auction
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

On December 17, 2025, Constellation Energy Corporation announced that all its power plants in the PJM market successfully cleared the capacity auction for the 2027-2028 planning year. The auction results, which include both nuclear and fossil-based capacities, take effect on June 1, 2027, reinforcing Constellation’s position in the market by ensuring continued monetization through capacity revenues and alignment with Production Tax Credit calculations, potentially benefiting stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $420.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Constellation Energy Announces Exchange Offers for Calpine
Positive
Dec 9, 2025

On December 9, 2025, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced the commencement of private exchange offers and consent solicitations for Calpine Corporation’s outstanding notes, as part of its planned acquisition of Calpine. The exchange offers involve issuing new notes in exchange for Calpine’s existing notes, while the consent solicitations aim to amend the terms of the Calpine notes to remove restrictive covenants and provisions. This strategic move is expected to streamline Constellation’s operations and strengthen its position in the energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $399.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Constellation Energy Announces Calpine Acquisition Merger
Positive
Dec 9, 2025

On January 10, 2025, Constellation Energy Corporation announced a merger agreement to acquire Calpine Corporation, making it an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary. This strategic move, outlined in the merger agreement, is expected to enhance Constellation’s market position and operational capabilities in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $399.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Constellation Energy Announces Leadership Changes Amid Acquisition
Positive
Nov 21, 2025

On November 21, 2025, Constellation Energy Corporation announced significant senior leadership changes in anticipation of its acquisition of Calpine Corporation, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025. Daniel Eggers will be promoted to Senior Executive Vice President, Finance and Data Economy, while Shane Smith will become the new Chief Financial Officer. Kathleen Barrón will transition to a Senior Advisor role before retiring in mid-2026. The acquisition will also see Andrew Novotny and other Calpine executives join Constellation’s leadership team, enhancing the company’s strategic and operational capabilities. These changes are aimed at strengthening Constellation’s industry position and supporting its growth strategy in a rapidly evolving energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Hold with a $368.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Energy Secures $1 Billion Loan Guarantee
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

On November 17, 2025, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC secured a $1 billion loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy to support the restart and repowering of the Christopher M. Crane Clean Energy Center, an 835 MW nuclear generating station in Pennsylvania. This initiative is expected to create approximately 3,400 jobs, contribute significantly to Pennsylvania’s GDP, and provide a stable, carbon-free electricity supply to support the growing digital economy and AI race. The project is part of Constellation’s broader investment strategy to enhance America’s nuclear energy capacity and ensure grid reliability.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Hold with a $368.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Constellation Energy Announces Board Member Retirement
Neutral
Nov 12, 2025

Peter Oppenheimer announced his intention to retire from the Board of Directors of Constellation Energy Corporation, effective December 31, 2025. This decision marks a significant change in the company’s leadership structure, potentially impacting its strategic direction and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Hold with a $368.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings
Positive
Nov 7, 2025

On November 7, 2025, Constellation Energy Corporation announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting a GAAP net income of $2.97 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $3.04 per share. The company highlighted significant operational achievements, including a settlement for the Conowingo Dam’s re-licensing and strong performance from its nuclear fleet. The narrowing of the full-year adjusted earnings guidance and the upcoming Calpine transaction position Constellation to meet growing demand for clean energy, enhancing its market positioning and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $478.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 17, 2026