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Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
NASDAQ:CEG
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Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) AI Stock Analysis

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CEG

Constellation Energy Corporation

(NASDAQ:CEG)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$328.00
â–²(6.13% Upside)
Constellation Energy Corporation's overall score reflects strong earnings call performance and strategic initiatives in clean energy, offset by financial challenges in cash flow and bearish technical indicators. The stock's high valuation and low dividend yield further moderate the score.
Positive Factors
Growth Potential
CEG's base business holds impressive growth potential, even without new deals, with guidance for double-digit EPS growth through 2030.
Market Leadership
Constellation Energy stands out as the nation’s largest producer of clean energy, the largest nuclear fleet operator, and the largest commercial-industrial retail book holder, cementing an entrenched market leadership story.
Negative Factors
Compensation Costs
Earnings will be partially offset by compensation cost increases and losses on PTC earnings.
Cost Risks
Shareholders are bearing the risk of any cost overrun or delays in the nuclear plant restart.

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Constellation Energy Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConstellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It sells natural gas, renewable energy, and other energy-related products and services. The company has 32,400 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities; municipalities; cooperatives; and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.
How the Company Makes MoneyConstellation Energy generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is the sale of electricity generated from its power plants, which include nuclear, solar, wind, and natural gas facilities. The company also earns money by providing energy supply services to residential and commercial customers, offering fixed and variable pricing plans. Additionally, Constellation engages in wholesale energy trading, buying and selling power in competitive markets to optimize its energy portfolio. The company's revenue is further supported by long-term contracts with various customers and utilities, as well as partnerships with businesses and governmental entities focused on sustainability initiatives. These diverse revenue streams, combined with strategic investments in renewable energy, enable Constellation Energy to maintain a stable financial foundation.

Constellation Energy Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Nuclear Generation by Geography
Nuclear Generation by Geography
Maps out nuclear energy production across various locations, reflecting the company's commitment to stable, low-carbon power generation and its strategic positioning in different regulatory environments.
Chart InsightsConstellation Energy's nuclear generation in ERCOT has seen a notable increase since late 2023, reflecting strategic expansion efforts. This aligns with the company's focus on leveraging its clean energy assets to support data center demand, as highlighted in the recent earnings call. The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions show stable generation, while New York experiences fluctuations. The company's strong operational performance and strategic acquisitions, like Calpine, are poised to enhance earnings, though regulatory challenges and market overestimation remain potential risks.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Constellation Energy Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Constellation Energy's strong financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and significant clean energy agreements, underpinned by robust political support for nuclear energy. However, challenges remain in regulatory and interconnection processes, affecting transaction timings and market stability.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Constellation Energy Corporation delivered second-quarter GAAP earnings of $2.67 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $1.91 per share, improving on last year's performance.
Share Buybacks Resumed
Following the Meta announcement, Constellation executed $400 million in Accelerated Repurchases, continuing to generate returns from stock repurchases.
Big Beautiful Bill Signed
The bill preserves and strengthens nuclear provisions, showcasing strong bipartisan support for nuclear energy.
Calpine Acquisition Progress
Received New York, Texas, and FERC approvals for the Calpine acquisition, on track to close by year-end.
Significant Clean Energy Agreements
Announced a 20-year power purchase agreement with Meta for the Clinton Clean Energy Center and a significant carbon-free energy transaction with Comcast.
Operational Excellence
Nuclear team posted its second-best fleet production ever with a capacity factor of 94.8%, producing over 41 million-megawatt hours of reliable, emissions-free power.
Support for Nuclear Energy
Political support for nuclear energy continues, with the extension of nuclear credits and executive orders signed to expand nuclear power.
Illinois ZEC Program Benefits
Recognized $201 million from the Illinois ZEC Program for bank credits, similar to the previous year.
Negative Updates
Interconnection Challenges
Delays and complexities in interconnection processes with utilities affecting the timing of new transactions.
Regulatory and Market Uncertainties
Uncertainties in the regulatory framework, including PJM market design changes and their impact on capacity auction pricing.
Capacity Auction Limitations
Demand response participation limited by low electric load carrying capacity (ELCC), affecting auction results.
Data Center Cost Concerns
Data center customers finding utility requirements for interconnection contracts onerous, impacting their operations.
Company Guidance
During the Constellation Energy Corporation's second-quarter earnings call, several key metrics and forward-looking statements were highlighted. The company reported GAAP earnings of $2.67 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $1.91 per share, marking an improvement over the previous year's second quarter. Constellation executed $400 million in accelerated stock repurchases following the Meta announcement, which was part of their strategy of securing long-term contracts. Additionally, they announced a 20-year power purchase agreement with Meta for over 1,100 megawatts of emissions-free nuclear energy, and they are advancing the restart of the Crane Clean Energy Center to the second half of 2027. The company also secured New York, Texas, and FERC approvals for the Calpine acquisition, expected to close by year-end. Furthermore, Constellation is actively pursuing additional agreements to sell clean, reliable megawatts from its nuclear plants, with one deal in late stages and others in earlier phases. The company noted strong bipartisan support for nuclear energy, bolstered by recent legislative developments, and emphasized the strategic advantage of combining gas and nuclear for competitive energy solutions.

Constellation Energy Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Constellation Energy Corporation shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with improved EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the negative free cash flow and declining net profit margins highlight financial challenges. The moderate leverage is manageable, but reliance on debt could pose risks if interest rates rise.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Constellation Energy Corporation demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue of $24.23 billion, a 2.82% increase from the previous annual report. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 25.05% TTM, indicating robust profitability. However, the net profit margin decreased to 12.31% TTM from 15.90% in the previous year, suggesting rising costs or other financial pressures impacting net income. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins show resilience, with EBIT margin at 18.09% and EBITDA margin at 26.64% TTM, reflecting operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.65, indicating moderate leverage, which can be advantageous for growth if managed well. The return on equity stands at 23.03% TTM, showcasing efficient use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio has slightly decreased to 24.79%, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing over equity, which could pose risks if interest rates rise or earnings fluctuate.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Constellation Energy faces challenges with negative free cash flow of $-4.27 billion TTM, though it showed a slight improvement from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting a mismatch between earnings and cash generation. However, the significant investing cash inflow of $5.71 billion indicates strategic investments that may bolster future growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue24.82B23.57B24.92B24.44B19.65B17.60B
Gross Profit5.14B5.99B3.30B2.14B2.75B3.27B
EBITDA6.39B6.97B4.22B2.92B3.81B4.31B
Net Income3.01B3.75B1.62B-160.00M-205.00M589.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets53.04B52.93B50.76B46.91B48.09B48.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.06B3.02B368.00M422.00M504.00M226.00M
Total Debt8.31B8.41B9.26B5.77B8.20B7.21B
Total Liabilities39.23B39.39B39.47B35.54B36.47B33.42B
Stockholders Equity13.45B13.17B10.93B11.02B11.22B12.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-2.40B-5.03B-7.72B-4.04B-2.67B-1.16B
Operating Cash Flow456.00M-2.46B-5.30B-2.35B-1.34B584.00M
Investing Cash Flow3.02B7.43B3.03B3.10B3.28B1.96B
Financing Cash Flow-1.80B-2.29B2.20B-799.00M-1.70B-2.66B

Constellation Energy Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price309.06
Price Trends
50DMA
321.73
Negative
100DMA
296.21
Positive
200DMA
274.04
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-4.37
Positive
RSI
41.03
Neutral
STOCH
41.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CEG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 309.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 319.39, below the 50-day MA of 321.73, and above the 200-day MA of 274.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CEG.

Constellation Energy Corporation Risk Analysis

Constellation Energy Corporation disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Energy Corporation reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Constellation Energy Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$94.78B19.939.60%3.47%4.07%9.94%
73
Outperform
$62.96B29.4845.85%0.47%46.90%388.66%
72
Outperform
$149.61B25.3111.84%3.12%18.80%-6.73%
66
Neutral
$17.25B17.875.54%3.65%6.63%11.55%
63
Neutral
$96.55B32.1924.20%0.49%13.41%27.49%
61
Neutral
$5.74B42.153.80%6.42%-0.27%-16.25%
48
Neutral
$6.04B32.67-63.28%4.38%12.46%-388.89%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
309.06
136.99
79.61%
DUK
Duke Energy
120.87
8.43
7.50%
NEE
NextEra Energy
70.87
-6.70
-8.64%
VST
Vistra Energy
189.73
116.54
159.23%
CWEN.A
Clearway Energy
27.11
3.18
13.29%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable
33.62
7.25
27.49%

Constellation Energy Corporation Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Earnings
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, Constellation Energy Corporation reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a GAAP net income of $2.67 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $1.91 per share. The company announced a 20-year agreement with Meta for the Clinton Clean Energy Center, received regulatory approval for its acquisition of Calpine, and plans to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center by 2027. These developments, along with legislative support for nuclear energy, position Constellation to enhance its operations and market presence, benefiting stakeholders through increased grid reliability and cost-effective energy solutions.

Business Operations and Strategy
Constellation Energy Clears PJM Capacity Auction
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

On July 22, 2025, Constellation Energy Corporation announced that all of its power plants in the PJM market successfully cleared the capacity auction for the 2026-2027 planning year. This outcome, effective June 1, 2026, includes approximately 6,200 megawatts of ComEd nuclear capacity participating in the Illinois Carbon Mitigation Credit Procurement Plan, potentially impacting the company’s revenue streams and positioning within the energy market.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 30, 2025