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Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
NASDAQ:CEG

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) AI Stock Analysis

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CEG

Constellation Energy Corporation

(NASDAQ:CEG)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$316.00
â–¼(-3.02% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/24/26
The score is anchored by solid profitability and an improving balance-sheet profile, supported by constructive earnings-call guidance and major strategic/financing milestones (Calpine integration and license extensions). The main constraints are cash-flow volatility and weaker intermediate technical trend, with valuation also a headwind given the high P/E and low yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Profitability Growth
Sustained revenue growth and solid profitability provide durable cash generation and scale benefits. With TTM revenue up materially and healthy operating/EBITDA margins, the company can invest in grid upgrades, renewables and nuclear life extensions while supporting long-term contracts and commercial expansion.
High Nuclear Fleet Reliability
Best-in-class nuclear availability creates a low-cost, predictable baseload supply advantage that supports long-term contracts and capacity revenues. High reliability reduces outage risk, underpins earnings stability, and strengthens Constellation’s competitive position in decarbonizing power markets.
Scale from Calpine Acquisition
The Calpine deal materially expands generation mix, geographic footprint and commercial scale, boosting ability to serve large data center and industrial customers. Greater fleet diversity and scale can drive synergies, improved market access and stronger commercial contracting capacity over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Volatile Cash Generation
Irregular operating and free cash flow reduces predictability for dividends, debt repayments and capital allocation. Volatility appears driven by working-capital and investment timing, which can limit financial flexibility during heavy investment cycles and complicate forecasting over the next several quarters.
Meaningful Absolute Debt Exposure
While leverage metrics improved, the enlarged balance sheet carries substantial absolute debt, raising interest-rate and refinancing sensitivity. Large legacy and acquisition-related obligations could constrain capital spending and increase funding costs if market rates rise or cash flow underperforms.
Operational & Interconnection Headwinds
Rising O&M costs (eg, stock-compensation-driven charges) and persistent interconnection delays slow revenue recognition and raise margin pressure on commercial projects. Structural grid bottlenecks and execution risk can delay key data-center builds and strain near-term commercial growth initiatives.

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Constellation Energy Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConstellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It sells natural gas, renewable energy, and other energy-related products and services. The company has 32,400 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities; municipalities; cooperatives; and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.
How the Company Makes MoneyConstellation Energy Corporation generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from the sale of electricity and natural gas to customers across different sectors. The company operates a diversified portfolio of power generation facilities, including nuclear, solar, and natural gas plants, which allow it to produce and sell energy competitively. Additionally, Constellation earns revenue from energy marketing and trading services, where it engages in buying and selling electricity on the wholesale market. The company also benefits from long-term contracts with commercial and industrial clients, which provide stable cash flows. Strategic partnerships with technology firms and investments in renewable energy projects further contribute to its earnings, as the demand for cleaner energy continues to grow. Overall, Constellation's focus on sustainability and efficiency positions it well in the evolving energy landscape.

Constellation Energy Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Nuclear Generation by Geography
Nuclear Generation by Geography
Maps out nuclear energy production across various locations, reflecting the company's commitment to stable, low-carbon power generation and its strategic positioning in different regulatory environments.
Chart InsightsConstellation Energy's nuclear generation in ERCOT has shown significant growth since late 2023, reflecting strategic expansion into new markets. This aligns with the company's strong operational performance and public support for nuclear energy. The Midwest and New York regions maintain steady output, while the Mid-Atlantic shows more variability. The earnings call highlights robust public support and strategic site importance, suggesting potential for further growth. However, challenges like interconnection delays could impact future expansion plans, especially in the data economy sector.
Data provided by:The Fly

Constellation Energy Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 07, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong operational and financial performance, with significant achievements such as increased earnings, high nuclear fleet reliability, and progress on strategic acquisitions. Public support for nuclear energy is also increasing, bolstering future prospects. However, there are some challenges, including O&M headwinds from stock compensation and interconnection delays for large load customers in the data economy.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Constellation delivered third quarter GAAP earnings of $2.97 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $3.04 per share, higher than the third quarter of last year. The company also narrowed its full-year guidance to $9.05 to $9.45 per share.
Nuclear Fleet Reliability
The nuclear fleet achieved a capacity factor of 96.8%, consistently outperforming the industry average by about 4%, which equates to the equivalent of an additional reactor's worth of power on a full-year basis.
Progress on Calpine Acquisition
The Calpine acquisition remains on track to close in the fourth quarter, with no significant delays noted from the government shutdown.
Maryland Agreement for Conowingo Dam
Reached a landmark agreement with the state of Maryland for the continued operation of Conowingo Dam for the next 50 years, contributing to Maryland's clean energy goals.
Increasing Public Support for Nuclear
Nearly 3/4 of the public supports nuclear energy, with 9 out of 10 people in favor of extending licenses on existing plants and 2 out of 3 supporting new nuclear plant construction.
Negative Updates
O&M Headwinds from Stock Compensation Plans
Outstanding stock performance this year has triggered stock compensation plans, creating nonrecurring O&M headwinds.
Interconnection Challenges for Large Loads
Deals with data economy customers are often delayed due to the speed of interconnection processes, with a call for FERC to develop a standard approach to expedite connections.
Company Guidance
During the Constellation Energy Corporation third quarter earnings call, the company provided several key financial metrics and strategic insights. Constellation reported GAAP earnings of $2.97 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $3.04 per share, both of which exceeded last year's third quarter figures. The company's nuclear team achieved a fleet-wide capacity factor of 96.8%, which is about 4% higher than the industry average. The company narrowed its full-year stand-alone adjusted operating earnings guidance to a range of $9.05 to $9.45 per share, highlighting strong performance from their commercial and generation businesses. Additionally, Constellation emphasized the robust public support for nuclear energy, with nearly 75% of the public in favor and 90% supporting license extensions for existing plants. They also discussed the strategic importance of their existing sites for future nuclear development and highlighted ongoing negotiations in the data economy market, indicating confidence in completing transactions soon.

Constellation Energy Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability and revenue growth are strong and leverage appears manageable with improving debt-to-equity and solid ROE. The key drag is cash-flow quality: while TTM operating and free cash flow are positive, they’ve been highly volatile versus prior periods, and a noted data-quality inconsistency around gross profit reduces confidence in parts of the margin trend.
Income Statement
74
Positive
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up strongly versus the prior year and profitability remains solid, with healthy operating and EBITDA margins and positive net income. However, profitability has cooled from 2024 levels (lower net margin and lower operating/EBITDA margins), and the negative gross profit figure in TTM conflicts with the stated gross margin, creating a data-quality flag that limits confidence in the gross profit trend. Overall, earnings power looks good but somewhat less consistent than the prior year peak.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Leverage looks manageable for a utility profile: debt-to-equity is moderate in TTM and has improved materially versus 2023, while equity has grown. Returns on equity are strong in TTM (and were even higher in 2024), signaling effective capital utilization. The key weakness is that debt remains meaningful in absolute dollars, so results are still somewhat sensitive to financing costs and large capital spending needs typical of the industry.
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
Cash generation is improving in TTM with positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, a notable turnaround from the deeply negative operating and free cash flow in 2022–2024. That said, free cash flow has swung sharply lower versus 2024 (very large negative growth rate), and cash flow metrics versus earnings are inconsistent across periods (including negative/unstable relationships between free cash flow and net income), pointing to volatility likely driven by working capital and/or investment timing. Overall cash flow quality is the main weak spot despite the recent rebound.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.53B23.57B24.92B24.44B19.65B
Gross Profit19.36B5.99B3.30B2.14B2.75B
EBITDA5.01B6.97B4.22B2.92B3.81B
Net Income2.32B3.75B1.62B-160.00M-205.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets57.25B52.93B50.76B46.91B48.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.75B3.02B368.00M422.00M504.00M
Total Debt8.99B8.41B9.26B5.77B8.20B
Total Liabilities42.40B39.39B39.47B35.54B36.47B
Stockholders Equity14.52B13.17B10.93B11.02B11.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.29B-5.03B-7.72B-4.04B-2.67B
Operating Cash Flow4.24B-2.46B-5.30B-2.35B-1.34B
Investing Cash Flow-3.20B7.43B3.03B3.10B3.28B
Financing Cash Flow-420.00M-2.29B2.20B-799.00M-1.70B

Constellation Energy Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price325.84
Price Trends
50DMA
315.35
Positive
100DMA
340.31
Negative
200DMA
327.74
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.15
Negative
RSI
63.71
Neutral
STOCH
85.73
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CEG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 325.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 282.74, above the 50-day MA of 315.35, and below the 200-day MA of 327.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.73 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CEG.

Constellation Energy Corporation Risk Analysis

Constellation Energy Corporation disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Energy Corporation reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Constellation Energy Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$199.35B28.9913.05%2.84%26.96%-6.80%
69
Neutral
$7.80B25.558.48%5.60%2.54%124.89%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
$113.29B42.3320.35%0.43%21.35%-3.93%
65
Neutral
$11.59B9.9123.02%5.06%-1.55%12.83%
63
Neutral
$58.15B61.3121.63%0.56%42.77%-47.64%
55
Neutral
$7.81B-6.55-38.17%3.84%5.93%-39.88%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
325.84
56.90
21.16%
NEE
NextEra Energy
95.11
26.25
38.12%
AES
AES
16.37
6.04
58.49%
VST
Vistra Corp
175.36
27.98
18.98%
CWEN.A
Clearway Energy
36.30
11.62
47.08%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable
43.77
16.46
60.27%

Constellation Energy Corporation Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Energy Finalizes Calpine Acquisition, Expands Clean Power
Positive
Feb 24, 2026

Constellation Energy reported fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP net income of $1.38 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $2.30 per share, with full-year 2025 GAAP net income of $7.40 per share and adjusted operating earnings rising to $9.39 per share, despite lower GAAP results versus 2024. Management highlighted strong nuclear fleet performance and market conditions, while noting that unfavorable nuclear production tax credit portfolio results weighed on earnings.

On Jan. 7, 2026, Constellation completed its acquisition of Calpine Corporation, creating what it calls the nation’s largest producer of electricity by combining zero-emission nuclear with natural gas and geothermal assets. The company also advanced its data center strategy with new power and infrastructure agreements at Texas sites, secured 20-year NRC license extensions for its Clinton and Dresden nuclear plants, obtained a $1 billion DOE loan guarantee to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center underpinned by a 20-year PPA with Microsoft, and raised its dividend 10 percent while signaling continued shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $460.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Energy completes Calpine exchange offers, streamlining debt
Positive
Jan 15, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation completed its previously announced merger under which Calpine Corporation became a wholly owned subsidiary, with Calpine remaining the issuer of nearly $2.4 billion of senior and senior secured notes. On January 15, 2026, Constellation completed private exchange offers for any and all outstanding Calpine notes, with approximately $2.29 billion in principal amount validly tendered, retired and canceled in exchange for new Constellation notes carrying the same interest rates, maturities and payment dates, and it secured consents to amend Calpine’s note indentures to remove most restrictive covenants and events of default, thereby simplifying its capital structure and increasing financial and operational flexibility for the combined company and its bondholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $376.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Completes High-Participation Exchange of Calpine Notes
Positive
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced the expiration and final results of its private exchange offers and related consent solicitations for outstanding notes issued by Calpine Corporation, following the completion of Constellation’s acquisition of Calpine on January 7, 2026. The exchange offers, which expired on January 12, 2026, achieved very high participation, with approximately 99.51% of Calpine’s 4.625% senior unsecured notes due 2029, 99.73% of its 5.000% senior unsecured notes due 2031, and 88.36% of its 3.750% senior secured notes due 2031 validly tendered, enabling Constellation to issue new unsecured notes on substantially similar terms while securing consents to strip most restrictive covenants and events of default from the Calpine indentures and to release collateral on the secured 2031 notes. This restructuring of Calpine’s debt into Constellation-issued notes, with settlement expected around January 15, 2026, simplifies the combined company’s capital structure, reduces covenant constraints, and marks a significant step in integrating Calpine’s financing into Constellation’s balance sheet, affecting both noteholders’ rights and the company’s financial flexibility going forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $440.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Constellation Energy Completes Calpine Acquisition, Expands Generation Fleet
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Constellation completed its acquisition of Calpine Corporation from Energy Capital Partners in a cash-and-stock deal that included 50 million newly issued Constellation shares and $4.5 billion in cash (subject to expenses), making Calpine a wholly owned subsidiary and creating what the company describes as the nation’s largest producer of electricity. In connection with the closing, Constellation granted former Calpine shareholders registration rights over their stock consideration, subject to a staged lock-up ending in 2027, while Calpine and its subsidiaries retained their existing capital structure, including multiple series of unsecured and secured notes with defined coupon, maturity and redemption terms, as well as substantial term loan facilities at Calpine Construction Finance Company and Geysers Power Company that were recently refinanced, upsized or repriced; these debt covenants place limits on additional liens, indebtedness and certain corporate transactions. The merger and related internal reorganization, completed between January 2 and January 7, 2026, also triggered the cash-and-stock vesting and cancellation of Calpine equity awards and resulted in former Calpine shareholders owning about 13.8% of Constellation’s outstanding common stock, while the combined company now controls 55 gigawatts of largely clean and flexible generation capacity aimed at serving surging power demand from data centers, advanced manufacturing and critical infrastructure, particularly in high-growth markets such as Texas and California. Governance changes accompanied the deal’s close, with long-serving finance executive Shane Smith elevated to executive vice president and chief financial officer and designated principal financial officer, while former CFO Daniel Eggers assumed a newly created senior executive role overseeing finance and the data economy, as Constellation seeks to leverage the enlarged generation fleet and commercial platform to scale advanced nuclear, geothermal, carbon capture and long-duration storage technologies and deepen its community and workforce investments from headquarters in Baltimore and a major presence in Houston.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $520.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Energy Extends Calpine Notes Exchange Offer Deadline
Positive
Dec 23, 2025

On December 23, 2025, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced that it had extended the expiration of its private exchange offers for Calpine Corporation’s outstanding 2029 and 2031 notes and the related consent solicitations from January 8, 2026 to January 12, 2026, while keeping the withdrawal deadline, which passed on December 22, 2025, unchanged. The company reported very high early participation, with about 99.5% of unsecured 2029 notes, 99.6% of unsecured 2031 notes and 88.3% of secured 2031 notes tendered, enabling it to secure the necessary consents to strip most restrictive covenants and events of default from the Calpine indentures and to release collateral securing the 2031 secured notes, with these amendments to become operative only upon settlement of the exchange offers and completion of the pending merger between Constellation Energy Corporation and Calpine. The structure offers equal-principal Constellation notes plus modest cash to early tendering holders, and a slightly reduced principal amount with no cash for later tenders, underscoring an effort to streamline Calpine’s capital structure and shift obligations onto Constellation’s balance sheet as a condition to closing the merger transaction, with implications for both companies’ bondholders and post-merger financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Hold with a $394.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Constellation Energy Clears PJM Capacity Auction
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

On December 17, 2025, Constellation Energy Corporation announced that all its power plants in the PJM market successfully cleared the capacity auction for the 2027-2028 planning year. The auction results, which include both nuclear and fossil-based capacities, take effect on June 1, 2027, reinforcing Constellation’s position in the market by ensuring continued monetization through capacity revenues and alignment with Production Tax Credit calculations, potentially benefiting stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $420.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Constellation Energy Announces Exchange Offers for Calpine
Positive
Dec 9, 2025

On December 9, 2025, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced the commencement of private exchange offers and consent solicitations for Calpine Corporation’s outstanding notes, as part of its planned acquisition of Calpine. The exchange offers involve issuing new notes in exchange for Calpine’s existing notes, while the consent solicitations aim to amend the terms of the Calpine notes to remove restrictive covenants and provisions. This strategic move is expected to streamline Constellation’s operations and strengthen its position in the energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $399.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Constellation Energy Announces Calpine Acquisition Merger
Positive
Dec 9, 2025

On January 10, 2025, Constellation Energy Corporation announced a merger agreement to acquire Calpine Corporation, making it an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary. This strategic move, outlined in the merger agreement, is expected to enhance Constellation’s market position and operational capabilities in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (CEG) stock is a Buy with a $399.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Energy Corporation stock, see the CEG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 24, 2026