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Constellation Energy Corporation
(NASDAQ:CEG)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$274.00
â–¼(-0.13% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/15/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but mixed financial fundamentals: strong profitability and improved cash flow are tempered by softer recent revenue growth, moderate cash conversion, and a sharp increase in debt. The latest earnings call was constructive with reaffirmed guidance, strong free-cash-flow outlook, and capital return commitments, but highlighted meaningful regulatory/timing risks. Technicals are currently weak-to-neutral with the stock below key longer-term moving averages, while valuation looks moderate with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Nuclear fleet reliability
Very high nuclear capacity factors provide consistent baseload generation and predictable output, supporting steady merchant and capacity revenues. Durable reliability reduces volume volatility, helps meet long‑term contract obligations, and enhances margin sustainability versus more cyclical thermal assets.
Negative Factors
Rising absolute debt
A marked step‑up in absolute debt increases leverage and raises refinancing and covenant sensitivity over time. Higher balance sheet size reduces financial flexibility to absorb commodity, regulatory, or execution shocks and amplifies downside risk if operating cash flow softens or project timings slip.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Nuclear fleet reliability
Very high nuclear capacity factors provide consistent baseload generation and predictable output, supporting steady merchant and capacity revenues. Durable reliability reduces volume volatility, helps meet long‑term contract obligations, and enhances margin sustainability versus more cyclical thermal assets.
Read all positive factors
Constellation Energy Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Nuclear Generation by Geography
Maps out nuclear energy production across various locations, reflecting the company's commitment to stable, low-carbon power generation and its strategic positioning in different regulatory environments.
Maps out nuclear energy production across various locations, reflecting the company's commitment to stable, low-carbon power generation and its strategic positioning in different regulatory environments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyConstellation Energy Corporation (CEG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$94.35B
Dividend Yield0.62%
Average Volume (3M)3.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.8
Beta (1Y)1.42
Revenue Growth14.87%
EPS Growth21.10%
CountryUS
Employees15,339
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.51
Shares Outstanding359,102,020
10 Day Avg. Volume2,653,681
30 Day Avg. Volume3,325,914
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.26
Price to Book (P/B)7.62
Price to Sales (P/S)4.33
P/FCF Ratio85.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$350.13Price Target Upside27.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)11.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$33.10B
Constellation Energy Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Constellation Energy Corporation operates as a U.S.-based firm dedicated to producing and distributing electricity. Its activities are organized across five primary geographical segments: the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and various oth...
How the Company Makes Money
Constellation primarily makes money through (1) generating electricity and selling it into wholesale power markets and (2) selling energy and energy-related products and services to end-use customers through retail/structured energy supply arrange...
Constellation Energy Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a positive outlook driven by strong operational performance, affirmed guidance, substantial free cash flow growth, successful integration and accretion from the Calpine acquisition, executed share repurchases, and recent project deliveries. Offsetting items include regulatory uncertainty in PJM (causing some customer pauses), weather-related incremental costs, timing for some uprates and capacity credits, and near-term market price softness in regions like ERCOT. Management emphasized material optionality to drive upside and a path to unlock demand once regulatory clarity is established.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Earnings
Q1 GAAP EPS of $4.49 and adjusted operating earnings of $2.74 per share, which is $0.60 per share higher than Q1 last year; company affirmed full-year adjusted operating earnings guidance of $11.00–$12.00 per share.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Uncertainty in PJM Slowing Some Deals
Some customers have paused development and contracting activity pending PJM/FERC clarity (particularly on colocation and backstop rules); management noted legal/implementation questions remain around differential reliability proposals, creating timing risk for projects.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Earnings
Q1 GAAP EPS of $4.49 and adjusted operating earnings of $2.74 per share, which is $0.60 per share higher than Q1 last year; company affirmed full-year adjusted operating earnings guidance of $11.00–$12.00 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Constellation affirmed full‑year adjusted operating earnings guidance of $11.00–$12.00 per share for 2026 (Q1 adjusted operating earnings $2.74/sh; GAAP Q1 $4.49/sh, +$0.60/sh y/y), reiterated roughly $2.00/sh of expected Calpine accretion, and said its base earnings growth rate exceeds 20% through 2029 with conviction for a long‑term rolling 10%+ base EPS growth rate; management forecast free cash flow before growth of $8.4 billion for 2026–27 and $11.5–$13.0 billion for 2028–29 (≈45% increase to the midpoint), noted an illustrative ~$0.50/sh upside from capital deployment optionality, flagged ~5,000 MW submitted into PJM’s interconnection queue, reported operational metrics of 40 million MWh nuclear generation (92.3% capacity factor) and 23 million MWh from CCGT/cogen (47.1% capacity factor; 5.1% forced outage factor), and reiterated disciplined capital priorities—a $5 billion buyback authorization (to date ~1.2M shares repurchased for ~$335M at an average ~$285/share), serving ~275M MWh and 800 Bcf annually, targeting 10% annual dividend growth, and maintaining investment‑grade credit and double‑digit unlevered return thresholds.Constellation Energy Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
51
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.87B | 25.53B | 23.57B | 24.92B | 24.44B | 19.65B |
| Gross Profit | 23.27B | 19.36B | 5.99B | 3.30B | 2.14B | 2.75B |
| EBITDA | 8.25B | 5.01B | 6.97B | 4.22B | 2.92B | 3.81B |
| Net Income | 3.80B | 2.32B | 3.75B | 1.62B | -160.00M | -205.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 96.91B | 57.25B | 52.93B | 50.76B | 46.91B | 48.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.17B | 3.75B | 3.02B | 368.00M | 422.00M | 504.00M |
| Total Debt | 22.47B | 8.99B | 8.41B | 9.26B | 5.77B | 8.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 63.09B | 42.40B | 39.39B | 39.47B | 35.54B | 36.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.48B | 14.52B | 13.17B | 10.93B | 11.02B | 11.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.14B | 1.29B | -5.03B | -7.72B | -4.04B | -2.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.55B | 4.24B | -2.46B | -5.30B | -2.35B | -1.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.04B | -3.20B | 7.43B | 3.03B | 3.10B | 3.28B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 718.00M | -420.00M | -2.29B | 2.20B | -799.00M | -1.70B |
Constellation Energy Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
274.35
Price Trends
263.05
Positive
278.48
Negative
306.80
Negative
Market Momentum
1.88
Negative
58.48
Neutral
49.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CEG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 274.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 259.55, above the 50-day MA of 263.05, and below the 200-day MA of 306.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CEG.
Constellation Energy Corporation Risk Analysis
Constellation Energy Corporation disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Energy Corporation reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Constellation Energy Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $181.31B | 19.45 | 16.82% | 2.65% | 11.83% | 55.48% | |
66 Neutral | $49.97B | 24.45 | 43.22% | 0.56% | -24.36% | -6.91% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $94.35B | 22.83 | 20.07% | 0.59% | 14.87% | 21.10% | |
58 Neutral | $10.47B | 7.81 | 28.87% | 4.74% | 2.76% | 5.46% | |
48 Neutral | $6.08B | -1.28 | 494.50% | 3.84% | -2.38% | -301.98% |
* Utilities Sector Average
CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
273.71
-79.33
-22.47%
NEE
NextEra Energy
86.55
18.00
26.27%
AES
AES
14.71
1.92
14.98%
VST
Vistra Corp
155.94
-57.00
-26.77%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable
34.16
1.07
3.24%
Constellation Energy Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Energy clears PJM capacity auction, boosting outlook
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Constellation Energy Corporation reported that all of its power plants located in the PJM market successfully cleared the PJM capacity auction for the 2028-2029 planning year, which will take effect on June 1, 2028. The company c...
Stock BuybackPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Constellation Energy completes secondary offering and share repurchase
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On June 1, 2026, Constellation Energy entered into an underwriting agreement under which selling shareholders agreed to sell 11,000,000 shares of the company’s common stock to Morgan Stanley Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, with a 30...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Energy Posts Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Surge
Positive
May 11, 2026
Constellation Energy reported a sharp increase in first-quarter 2026 performance on May 11, with GAAP net income rising to $4.49 per share from $0.38 and adjusted operating earnings climbing to $2.74 per share from $2.14 a year earlier, driven lar...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Constellation Energy Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Neutral
May 1, 2026
At Constellation Energy Corporation’s April 28, 2026 annual meeting, shareholders elected eleven director nominees to one-year terms and approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers as pres...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.