Vistra Energy (VST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $60.13B
• Dividend Yield: 0.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.81M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.8
• Beta (1Y): 2.00
• Revenue Growth: 49.22%
• EPS Growth: 313.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,850
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): -0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 339,331,940
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,404,809
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,814,879
• PEG Ratio: -0.88
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.95
• 1Y Price Target: $190.88
• Price Target Upside: 7.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $196.00 ▲(10.27%Upside)

Vistra Energy demonstrates robust financial performance and positive earnings guidance. Strong technical indicators and strategic acquisitions bolster its position, although high valuation and regulatory uncertainties in key markets present challenges.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Benefits

The acquisition is expected to have a positive reaction given the favorable deal terms.

Free Cash Flow

The acquisition is expected to result in at least ~3.5% accretion to AFCFbG in the first full year.

Shareholder Returns

The company's capital allocation plan targets the return of capital to shareholders with at least $1.0bn of share repurchases and $300mm in annual dividends, reaffirming its commitment to shareholders.

Negative Factors

Tax Credit Risks

There is a risk that nuclear production tax credits might not be fully restored, which is seen as a negative factor for Vistra.

Valuation Concerns

The 7x EV / EBITDA is notably lower than expected due to factors like the age of the portfolio and pending large transactions by CEG and NRG.

Vistra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Vistra Energy makes money through its integrated business model, which combines power generation with retail electricity sales. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of electricity generated from its power plants and the provision of electricity and energy-related services to end consumers through its retail operations. Vistra's generation segment sells electricity in the wholesale market, while its retail segment generates revenue by marketing electricity plans and services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Additionally, Vistra leverages its diverse generation portfolio to optimize power production and manage costs, contributing to its overall profitability. Significant partnerships and market positions in key regions also enhance Vistra's ability to secure favorable pricing and supply agreements, further supporting its earnings.

Vistra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vistra Energy exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability improvements. Despite high leverage, the company has maintained healthy cash flows, indicating effective financial management.

Income Statement

Vistra Energy shows strong revenue growth from 2020 to TTM with a Revenue Growth Rate of 3.62% from 2024 to TTM. The gross profit margin has been stable, with TTM at 41.31%. Net profit margin has improved significantly from negative figures in 2021 and 2022 to 13.40% in TTM, indicating better profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, supporting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.67 in TTM, highlighting significant leverage but improving from previous years. The Equity Ratio of 12.62% in TTM suggests a relatively low proportion of equity financing. However, the Return on Equity has improved significantly to 50.27% in TTM, indicating strong returns on equity investment.

Cash Flow

Vistra Energy demonstrates strong cash flow health with positive free cash flow and an improving Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.02 in TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.00 suggests solid cash generation from operations relative to net income. Free Cash Flow Growth Rate from 2023 to 2024 is slightly negative but remains positive over the larger period.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
18.10B	17.22B	14.78B	13.73B	12.08B	11.44B
	Gross Profit
7.48B	7.53B	5.52B	1.68B	1.35B	4.65B
	EBIT
3.88B	4.08B	2.66B	-1.12B	-1.27B	1.52B
	EBITDA
6.78B	6.96B	4.57B	1.29B	782.00M	3.16B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.43B	2.66B	1.49B	-1.21B	-1.26B	636.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
561.00M	1.19B	3.48B	455.00M	1.32B	406.00M
	Total Assets
38.23B	37.77B	32.97B	32.79B	29.68B	25.21B
	Total Debt
17.68B	17.36B	14.68B	13.34B	11.01B	9.88B
	Net Debt
17.12B	16.18B	11.20B	12.88B	9.68B	9.48B
	Total Liabilities
33.39B	32.19B	27.64B	27.87B	21.39B	16.85B
	Stockholders Equity
4.83B	5.57B	5.31B	4.90B	8.29B	8.37B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
2.47B	2.48B	3.78B	-816.00M	-1.24B	2.08B
	Operating Cash Flow
4.85B	4.56B	5.45B	485.00M	-206.00M	3.34B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.81B	-5.28B	-2.15B	-1.24B	-1.15B	-1.57B
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.56B	-1.60B	-294.00M	-80.00M	2.27B	-1.80B

Vistra Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 177.75
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 177.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 166.63, above the 50-day MA of 144.28, and above the 200-day MA of 137.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VST.

Vistra Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VST	77 Outperform	$60.13B	27.79	46.29%	0.50%	49.22%	313.49%
WEC	77 Outperform	$33.24B	20.33	12.96%	3.43%	4.42%	11.98%
AEP	74 Outperform	$54.44B	19.66	10.41%	3.65%	4.20%	-3.64%
PPL	71 Outperform	$24.88B	25.13	7.00%	3.24%	5.62%	30.02%
NRG	71 Outperform	$29.73B	23.94	44.91%	1.16%	2.57%	-10.19%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.57B	10.35	4.24%	4.64%	4.07%	-13.04%
PNW	64 Neutral	$10.62B	17.66	9.08%	3.98%	10.69%	12.37%

Vistra Energy Corporate Events

Vistra Energy Acquires Natural Gas Facilities for $1.9B

On May 15, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced its agreement to acquire seven modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, totaling approximately 2,600 MW of capacity. This acquisition, valued at $1.9 billion, is expected to enhance Vistra’s industry-leading generation portfolio and deliver immediate financial benefits, including accretion in Ongoing Operations AFCFbG per share. The transaction, which diversifies Vistra’s natural gas fleet across key U.S. markets, is subject to regulatory approvals and is anticipated to close in late 2025 or early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

On April 30, 2025, Vistra Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key amendments to the company’s certificate of incorporation were approved. These amendments included officer exculpation under Delaware law, the repeal of provisions favoring former principal stockholders, and the removal of supermajority voting standards, which were replaced with a simple majority standard. Additionally, the company’s 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan was approved, and Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the year ending December 31, 2025.