Vistra Energy (VST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $68.59B
• Dividend Yield: 0.44%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.95
• Revenue Growth: 49.22%
• EPS Growth: 313.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,850
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.92
• Shares Outstanding: 339,331,940
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,537,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,115,255
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.66
• 1Y Price Target: $213.33
• Price Target Upside: 5.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $228.00 ▲(12.80% Upside)

Vistra Energy's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook, which are the most significant factors. The technical analysis supports a positive trend, while the valuation suggests potential overvaluation. The company's strategic initiatives and growth prospects further enhance its attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Acquisition benefits

The acquisition is expected to be accretive to adjusted free cash flow before growth in the first year following the close.

Market position

VST's sizable presence in a power market with meaningful demand growth differentiates it from other companies, indicating a strong market position.

Negative Factors

Operational challenges

Earnings in Texas face headwinds from unplanned and planned outages as well as higher gas costs.

Retail and segment performance

The retail segment was down due to weather, and the West segment faced headwinds with the Moss Landing outage.

Vistra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vistra Energy (VST) is a leading integrated retail electricity and power generation company headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company operates primarily in the United States and is involved in the generation, sale, and retail distribution of electricity. Vistra Energy's core services include producing electricity through a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, solar, and coal generation facilities, as well as offering energy-related products and services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Vistra Energy makes money through its integrated business model, which combines power generation with retail electricity sales. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of electricity generated from its power plants and the provision of electricity and energy-related services to end consumers through its retail operations. Vistra's generation segment sells electricity in the wholesale market, while its retail segment generates revenue by marketing electricity plans and services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Additionally, Vistra leverages its diverse generation portfolio to optimize power production and manage costs, contributing to its overall profitability. Significant partnerships and market positions in key regions also enhance Vistra's ability to secure favorable pricing and supply agreements, further supporting its earnings.

Vistra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vistra Energy presents a robust financial profile with strong revenue growth and profitability improvement over recent years. The company has managed to strengthen its operating margins while maintaining healthy cash flows. Although leverage remains high, improving returns on equity and positive cash flow trends suggest effective financial management.

Income Statement

Vistra Energy shows strong revenue growth from 2020 to TTM with a Revenue Growth Rate of 3.62% from 2024 to TTM. The gross profit margin has been stable, with TTM at 41.31%. Net profit margin has improved significantly from negative figures in 2021 and 2022 to 13.40% in TTM, indicating better profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, supporting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.67 in TTM, highlighting significant leverage but improving from previous years. The Equity Ratio of 12.62% in TTM suggests a relatively low proportion of equity financing. However, the Return on Equity has improved significantly to 50.27% in TTM, indicating strong returns on equity investment.

Cash Flow

Vistra Energy demonstrates strong cash flow health with positive free cash flow and an improving Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.02 in TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.00 suggests solid cash generation from operations relative to net income. Free Cash Flow Growth Rate from 2023 to 2024 is slightly negative but remains positive over the larger period.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.10B	19.38B	15.54B	17.84B	13.33B	11.06B
Gross Profit	7.48B	7.69B	5.17B	3.81B	60.00M	2.50B
EBITDA	6.78B	7.19B	4.62B	1.29B	852.00M	3.16B
Net Income	2.43B	2.66B	1.49B	-1.23B	-1.27B	636.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.23B	37.77B	32.97B	32.79B	29.68B	25.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	561.00M	1.19B	3.48B	455.00M	1.32B	406.00M
Total Debt	17.68B	17.36B	14.68B	13.34B	11.01B	9.88B
Total Liabilities	33.39B	32.19B	27.64B	27.87B	21.39B	16.85B
Stockholders Equity	4.83B	5.57B	5.31B	4.90B	8.29B	8.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.47B	2.48B	3.78B	-816.00M	-1.24B	2.08B
Operating Cash Flow	4.85B	4.56B	5.45B	485.00M	-206.00M	3.34B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.81B	-5.28B	-2.15B	-1.24B	-1.15B	-1.57B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.56B	-1.60B	-294.00M	-80.00M	2.27B	-1.80B

Vistra Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 202.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 202.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 198.05, above the 50-day MA of 187.69, and above the 200-day MA of 153.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VST.

Vistra Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPL	78 Outperform	$26.88B	27.33	6.96%	2.92%	6.62%	17.35%
VST	78 Outperform	$68.59B	32.07	45.85%	0.44%	49.22%	313.49%
AEP	74 Outperform	$60.16B	16.48	13.03%	3.27%	5.84%	36.33%
WEC	73 Outperform	$35.52B	21.15	13.12%	3.13%	7.88%	20.67%
NRG	70 Neutral	$29.51B	64.55	17.66%	1.13%	2.12%	-74.13%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.68B	17.88	6.87%	3.50%	6.30%	4.49%
PNW	65 Neutral	$11.06B	19.08	8.90%	3.87%	7.47%	-8.53%

Vistra Energy Corporate Events

Vistra Energy Announces PJM Auction Results

On July 22, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced its results from the PJM Capacity Auction for the 2026/2027 planning year, clearing approximately 10,314 megawatts at a weighted average price of $329.17 per megawatt-day. This outcome underscores Vistra’s significant presence in the energy market and its strategic positioning to meet future energy demands, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market influence.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Amends Receivables Agreement for Financial Flexibility

On July 11, 2025, Vistra Corp.’s subsidiaries, TXU Energy Retail and Vistra Operations, amended their Receivables Purchase Agreement, increasing the commitment from $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion and extending its term to July 10, 2026. Additionally, they extended the Master Framework Agreement with MUFG Bank, Ltd., also until July 10, 2026, indicating a strategic move to enhance financial flexibility and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Acquires Natural Gas Facilities for $1.9B

On May 15, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced its agreement to acquire seven modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, totaling approximately 2,600 MW of capacity. This acquisition, valued at $1.9 billion, is expected to enhance Vistra’s industry-leading generation portfolio and deliver immediate financial benefits, including accretion in Ongoing Operations AFCFbG per share. The transaction, which diversifies Vistra’s natural gas fleet across key U.S. markets, is subject to regulatory approvals and is anticipated to close in late 2025 or early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.