Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSE:VST
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Vistra Corp
(NYSE:VST)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$157.00
â–¼(-3.95% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and strong operating cash generation, tempered by leverage risk and free-cash-flow volatility. A constructive earnings call (record EBITDA, reaffirmed guidance, hedging, and sizable cash-generation/capital-return plans) supports the outlook, while weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative momentum) are the main near-term drag. Valuation is reasonable on earnings (P/E ~13) but offers limited yield support.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, hedging and shareholder returns. Over the next 2–6 months this backing supports execution of growth and buyback plans while buffering volatility in commodity-dependent earnings and working capital swings.
Negative Factors
High leverage and balance-sheet inconsistency
Elevated leverage limits financial flexibility in a cyclical power business and increases refinancing and covenant risk. Incomplete TTM balance-sheet data adds uncertainty about true net leverage, which could constrain growth spending or force defensive capital allocation under stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, hedging and shareholder returns. Over the next 2–6 months this backing supports execution of growth and buyback plans while buffering volatility in commodity-dependent earnings and working capital swings.
Read all positive factors
Vistra Corp (VST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.55B
Dividend Yield0.56%
Average Volume (3M)4.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.4
Beta (1Y)1.80
Revenue Growth-24.36%
EPS Growth-6.91%
CountryUS
Employees6,850
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.06
Shares Outstanding337,182,460
10 Day Avg. Volume6,298,015
30 Day Avg. Volume4,573,904
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.84
Price to Book (P/B)10.73
Price to Sales (P/S)3.23
P/FCF Ratio424.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit32.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$229.50Price Target Upside40.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)8.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.61B
Vistra Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and na...
How the Company Makes Money
Vistra primarily makes money through (1) selling electricity generated from its power plants into wholesale power markets and (2) selling electricity (and related products) to end-use customers through its retail electricity business.
1) Wholesal...
Vistra Corp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was largely positive: management reported a record Q1 adjusted EBITDA ($1.494B, +20% YoY), strong generation availability (97% gas, 100% nuclear), a sizable development pipeline (~4,500 MW), aggressive capital returns (~$600M YTD), a major pending acquisition (5,500 MW Cogentrix) and a credit rating upgrade to investment-grade. Key risks center on policy and interconnection uncertainty (particularly in PJM and ERCOT batch processes), mild weather pressure on retail and challenging short-term storage economics. On balance, the operational and financial strengths and visible cash generation and capital deployment plans significantly outweigh the execution and regulatory timing risks.Positive Updates
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA
Delivered $1.494 billion of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, a record for a calendar first quarter — up ~20% year-over-year and nearly 85% versus Q1 2024.
Negative Updates
Retail Impacted by Mild Weather
Extremely mild weather in ERCOT in Q1 caused a year-over-year retail decline for the quarter (anticipated by management) and retail full-year performance is expected to moderate from last year's record.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA
Delivered $1.494 billion of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, a record for a calendar first quarter — up ~20% year-over-year and nearly 85% versus Q1 2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vistra reaffirmed its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth (originally introduced on the Q3 2025 call) and maintained its 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range, noting a highly hedged position through 2027 (with downside protection from the nuclear PTC) and that the outlook excludes the pending 5,500 MW Cogentrix acquisition (expected to close in H2) and the ~2,600 MW PJM PPAs with Meta. The company reported a record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $1.494 billion (up ~20% YoY and ~85% vs Q1 2024) — generation contributed $1.426 billion and retail $68 million — with fleet availability at 97% for gas and 100% for nuclear; Martin Lake Unit 1 returned from outage late in Q1. Management reiterated line of sight to more than $10 billion of cash generation over 2026–2027, plans to allocate roughly $3 billion to equity holders (share repurchases + dividends) and ~$4 billion to accretive growth (including Cogentrix, Permian gas builds, PJM nuclear uprate and Oak Hill 2), leaving about $3 billion of additional capital to deploy through year-end 2027; YTD returns to shareholders are ~ $600 million (≈$525 million repurchases in the first four months + ≈$75 million dividend), with ~$1.475 billion of repurchase authorization remaining and ~169 million shares retired since November 2021 at an average cost of ~$37. Near-term priorities include ~3.2 GW of nuclear capacity to contract, ~4,500 MW of organic development (majority expected online by 2028), uprates of >200 MW at Comanche Peak and ~300 MW at PJM gas sites, and target mid-teens levered returns on growth, all backed by recent investment‑grade upgrades (S&P and Fitch) that released certain secured‑debt liens.Vistra Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.21B | 16.97B | 19.38B | 15.54B | 17.84B | 13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.06B | 2.97B | 7.69B | 5.17B | 3.81B | 60.00M |
| EBITDA | 5.53B | 5.25B | 7.19B | 4.62B | 1.29B | 852.00M |
| Net Income | 2.24B | 944.00M | 2.66B | 1.49B | -1.23B | -1.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 41.31B | 41.55B | 37.77B | 32.97B | 32.79B | 29.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 671.00M | 816.00M | 1.19B | 3.48B | 455.00M | 1.32B |
| Total Debt | 19.91B | 20.39B | 17.36B | 14.68B | 13.34B | 11.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.70B | 36.44B | 32.19B | 27.64B | 27.87B | 21.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.60B | 5.11B | 5.57B | 5.31B | 4.90B | 8.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 965.00M | 129.00M | 2.48B | 3.78B | -816.00M | -1.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.67B | 4.07B | 4.56B | 5.45B | 485.00M | -206.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.97B | -4.40B | -5.28B | -2.15B | -1.24B | -1.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -616.00M | -74.00M | -1.60B | -294.00M | -80.00M | 2.27B |
Vistra Corp Technical Analysis
Negative
163.46
Price Trends
154.82
Negative
159.02
Negative
174.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.11
Positive
43.45
Neutral
21.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 163.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 151.78, above the 50-day MA of 154.82, and below the 200-day MA of 174.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VST.
Vistra Corp Risk Analysis
Vistra Corp disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vistra Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vistra Corp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $70.12B | 20.32 | 11.86% | 3.25% | 9.38% | 31.12% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
63 Neutral | $48.55B | 12.41 | 43.22% | 0.56% | -24.36% | -6.91% | |
61 Neutral | $59.79B | 13.81 | 6.53% | 2.91% | 2.23% | -35.44% | |
60 Neutral | $59.57B | 21.87 | 10.51% | 4.59% | 19.15% | 27.09% | |
60 Neutral | $83.90B | 19.21 | 8.47% | 4.03% | 1.13% | 13.82% | |
46 Neutral | $28.27B | 60.50 | 8.84% | 1.11% | 10.82% | -86.75% |
* Utilities Sector Average
VST
Vistra Corp
144.00
-9.93
-6.45%
AEP
American Electric Power
128.87
30.20
30.60%
D
Dominion Energy
67.73
14.53
27.32%
NGG
National Grid Transco
84.72
14.15
20.05%
NRG
NRG Energy
133.98
-19.55
-12.74%
SRE
Sempra Energy
91.46
16.98
22.80%
Vistra Corp Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vistra Shareholders Back Board, Executive Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 4, 2026
At its April 29, 2026 annual meeting, Vistra Corp. shareholders elected 11 directors to the board, including Scott B. Helm, Hilary E. Ackermann, Arcilia C. Acosta, Gavin R. Baiera, Paul M. Barbas, James A. Burke, Lisa Crutchfield, Julie A. Lagacy,...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Vistra Corp Completes $4 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 22, 2026, Vistra Operations Company LLC completed a $4.0 billion private offering of senior notes maturing between 2028 and 2036, sold to qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors and fully and unconditionally guaranteed by ce...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.