Vistra Energy (VST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $62.96B
• Dividend Yield: 0.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.97
• Revenue Growth: 46.90%
• EPS Growth: 388.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,850
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.80
• Shares Outstanding: 338,820,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,548,989
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,489,050
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.23
• 1Y Price Target: $222.00
• Price Target Upside: 17.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $211.00 ▲(11.21% Upside)

Vistra Energy's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors contributing to its score. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the stock's valuation appears high, which tempers the overall score.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

The acquisition is expected to have a positive reaction given the favorable deal terms.

Earnings

The company's 2Q25 EBITDA exceeded consensus estimates, showing stronger than expected financial performance.

Financial Performance

Vistra Energy is expected to generate significant extra cash through 2027, providing flexibility for capital allocation.

Negative Factors

Cost Management

Operation & maintenance costs were up for the whole business and generation was lower, which slightly offset the benefits from higher realized prices.

Operational Challenges

Earnings in Texas face headwinds from unplanned and planned outages as well as higher gas costs.

Weather Impact

The retail segment was down due to weather, and the West segment faced headwinds with the Moss Landing outage.

Vistra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Vistra Energy generates revenue primarily through its power generation segment by selling electricity to wholesale markets and directly to retail customers. The company participates in both the regulated and unregulated markets, allowing it to capitalize on fluctuating energy prices. Key revenue streams include electricity sales from its portfolio of power plants, which benefit from a mix of long-term power purchase agreements and spot market sales. Furthermore, Vistra's retail segment contributes significantly to its earnings through the sale of electricity and gas to consumers, often bundled with customer service and energy management solutions. Strategic partnerships with other energy providers and participation in various market initiatives also enhance its revenue potential, while its focus on renewable energy investments aligns with the growing demand for sustainable energy solutions.

Vistra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vistra Energy presents a robust financial profile with strong revenue growth and profitability improvement over recent years. The company has managed to strengthen its operating margins while maintaining healthy cash flows. Although leverage remains high, improving returns on equity and positive cash flow trends suggest effective financial management.

Income Statement

Vistra Energy shows strong revenue growth from 2020 to TTM with a Revenue Growth Rate of 3.62% from 2024 to TTM. The gross profit margin has been stable, with TTM at 41.31%. Net profit margin has improved significantly from negative figures in 2021 and 2022 to 13.40% in TTM, indicating better profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, supporting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.67 in TTM, highlighting significant leverage but improving from previous years. The Equity Ratio of 12.62% in TTM suggests a relatively low proportion of equity financing. However, the Return on Equity has improved significantly to 50.27% in TTM, indicating strong returns on equity investment.

Cash Flow

Vistra Energy demonstrates strong cash flow health with positive free cash flow and an improving Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.02 in TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.00 suggests solid cash generation from operations relative to net income. Free Cash Flow Growth Rate from 2023 to 2024 is slightly negative but remains positive over the larger period.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.75B	19.38B	15.54B	17.84B	13.33B	11.06B
Gross Profit	9.10B	7.69B	5.17B	3.81B	60.00M	2.50B
EBITDA	7.02B	7.19B	4.62B	1.29B	852.00M	3.16B
Net Income	2.43B	2.66B	1.49B	-1.23B	-1.27B	636.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.23B	37.77B	32.97B	32.79B	29.68B	25.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	561.00M	1.19B	3.48B	455.00M	1.32B	406.00M
Total Debt	17.68B	17.36B	14.68B	13.34B	11.01B	9.88B
Total Liabilities	33.39B	32.19B	27.64B	27.87B	21.39B	16.85B
Stockholders Equity	4.83B	5.57B	5.31B	4.90B	8.29B	8.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.47B	2.48B	3.78B	-816.00M	-1.24B	2.08B
Operating Cash Flow	4.85B	4.56B	5.45B	485.00M	-206.00M	3.34B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.81B	-5.28B	-2.15B	-1.24B	-1.15B	-1.57B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.56B	-1.60B	-294.00M	-80.00M	2.27B	-1.80B

Vistra Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 189.73
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 189.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 195.89, below the 50-day MA of 195.48, and above the 200-day MA of 159.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VST.

Vistra Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
D	75 Outperform	$50.47B	20.43	9.29%	4.54%	7.60%	55.99%
AEP	74 Outperform	$58.88B	16.13	13.03%	3.42%	5.84%	36.33%
VST	73 Outperform	$62.96B	29.48	45.85%	0.47%	46.90%	388.66%
NGG	71 Outperform	$67.36B	17.29	8.31%	4.46%	-6.02%	7.24%
SRE	71 Outperform	$54.08B	20.07	8.87%	3.08%	0.46%	-11.77%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.25B	17.87	5.54%	3.65%	6.63%	11.55%
NRG	58 Neutral	$28.07B	61.41	17.66%	1.17%	2.09%	-74.13%

Vistra Energy Corporate Events

Vistra Energy Announces PJM Auction Results

On July 22, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced its results from the PJM Capacity Auction for the 2026/2027 planning year, clearing approximately 10,314 megawatts at a weighted average price of $329.17 per megawatt-day. This outcome underscores Vistra’s significant presence in the energy market and its strategic positioning to meet future energy demands, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market influence.

Vistra Energy Amends Receivables Agreement for Financial Flexibility

On July 11, 2025, Vistra Corp.’s subsidiaries, TXU Energy Retail and Vistra Operations, amended their Receivables Purchase Agreement, increasing the commitment from $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion and extending its term to July 10, 2026. Additionally, they extended the Master Framework Agreement with MUFG Bank, Ltd., also until July 10, 2026, indicating a strategic move to enhance financial flexibility and stability.