Vistra Energy (VST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $59.34B
• Dividend Yield: 0.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.62M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.6
• Beta (1Y): 2.14
• Revenue Growth: 42.77%
• EPS Growth: -47.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,850
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 1.75
• Shares Outstanding: 338,825,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,436,773
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,621,788
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.90
• 1Y Price Target: $239.71
• Price Target Upside: 36.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $190.00 ▲(8.48% Upside)

Vistra Energy's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call sentiment and operational efficiency. However, high leverage, declining profitability, and bearish technical indicators weigh on the score. The high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, while the modest dividend yield offers limited income potential.

Positive Factors

Power Purchase Agreement

The long-term power purchase agreement ensures stable revenue and operational continuity into the 2050s, strengthening Vistra's market position.

Successful Acquisition

The acquisition enhances Vistra's geographic footprint and capacity, meeting diverse customer needs and supporting long-term growth.

Capital Return to Shareholders

Significant capital returns demonstrate strong cash generation and shareholder value focus, enhancing investor confidence over the long term.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Declining Profitability

Declining profitability indicates challenges in cost management and revenue generation, impacting long-term financial health.

Cash Flow Management Issues

Variable cash flow management and declining free cash flow growth suggest potential issues in sustaining operations and funding growth.

Vistra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vistra Energy (VST) is a leading energy company based in the United States, primarily engaged in the generation and retail sale of electricity and related services. The company operates through various segments, including its competitive generation segment, which focuses on power generation from natural gas, coal, and renewable sources, and its retail segment, which provides electricity and energy-related services to residential and commercial customers. Vistra is committed to sustainability and innovation within the energy sector, offering solutions that enhance energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions.

How the Company Makes Money

Vistra Energy generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily from the sale of electricity and related services. Its competitive generation segment earns income by producing and selling electricity to wholesale markets and directly to retailers, leveraging its diverse portfolio of power plants. The retail segment contributes significantly to revenue by supplying electricity to end-users, often through fixed-rate and variable-rate plans. Additionally, Vistra benefits from ancillary services such as demand response and energy efficiency programs. The company has established significant partnerships and agreements, including long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and collaborations with renewable energy developers, which enhance its revenue stability and expand its market presence. Overall, Vistra's focus on a balanced energy portfolio and strategic market positioning allows it to effectively capitalize on industry trends and customer demand.

Vistra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vistra Energy demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, as reflected in its income statement. However, the high leverage on the balance sheet is a potential risk factor that needs monitoring. Cash flow generation is robust, supporting the company's financial health. Overall, Vistra Energy is in a strong position but should focus on managing its debt levels to ensure long-term stability.

Income Statement

Vistra Energy's income statement shows a strong performance with a consistent increase in revenue over the years, highlighted by a 2.58% growth in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains robust at 40.64%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 10.70% in the TTM, suggesting some pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.67, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. Return on equity is strong at 44.58%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure but with room for improvement in reducing leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trajectory with a 26% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.43, indicating that operating cash flows are supporting net income, though there is room for improvement. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggests a solid conversion of profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.75B	19.38B	15.54B	17.84B	13.33B	11.06B
Gross Profit	8.18B	7.69B	5.17B	3.81B	60.00M	2.50B
EBITDA	5.15B	7.19B	4.62B	1.29B	852.00M	3.16B
Net Income	1.15B	2.66B	1.49B	-1.23B	-1.27B	636.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.02B	37.77B	32.97B	32.79B	29.68B	25.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	602.00M	1.19B	3.48B	455.00M	1.32B	406.00M
Total Debt	17.50B	17.36B	14.68B	13.34B	11.01B	9.88B
Total Liabilities	32.80B	32.19B	27.64B	27.87B	21.39B	16.85B
Stockholders Equity	5.21B	5.57B	5.31B	4.90B	8.29B	8.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.98B	2.48B	3.78B	-816.00M	-1.24B	2.08B
Operating Cash Flow	3.99B	4.56B	5.45B	485.00M	-206.00M	3.34B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.48B	-5.28B	-2.15B	-1.24B	-1.15B	-1.57B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.81B	-1.60B	-294.00M	-80.00M	2.27B	-1.80B

Vistra Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 175.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 175.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 181.50, below the 50-day MA of 193.86, and above the 200-day MA of 170.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -6.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VST.

Vistra Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SRE	74 Outperform	$61.29B	28.92	7.10%	2.73%	9.07%	-28.58%
NGG	74 Outperform	$72.58B	19.53	7.53%	4.24%	-7.06%	38.21%
AEP	72 Outperform	$65.32B	17.86	12.85%	3.06%	7.66%	37.42%
NRG	67 Neutral	$31.98B	24.38	64.19%	1.05%	6.40%	62.12%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
VST	63 Neutral	$59.34B	62.56	21.63%	0.47%	42.77%	-47.64%
D	63 Neutral	$52.60B	20.96	9.27%	4.53%	12.72%	4.90%

Vistra Energy Corporate Events

Vistra Corp. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Vistra Corp., a Fortune 500 integrated retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas, operates across the United States, providing reliable and sustainable energy solutions through a diverse fleet of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities.

Vistra Energy’s Positive Earnings Call Highlights Achievements

The recent earnings call of Vistra Energy exuded a positive sentiment, underscored by significant achievements such as a landmark power purchase agreement, robust financial performance, successful acquisitions, and substantial capital returns to shareholders. Despite these successes, the company acknowledged challenges in the form of operational outages and variability in the retail segment.

Vistra Energy Completes Major Acquisition of Gas Facilities

On October 22, 2025, Vistra Operations Company LLC, a subsidiary of Vistra Corp., completed the acquisition of seven natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, totaling approximately 2,600 MW of capacity. This strategic acquisition, which received all necessary regulatory approvals, enhances Vistra’s ability to deliver reliable and flexible power across key competitive markets such as PJM, New England, New York, and California. The transaction, valued at a base purchase price of $1.9 billion, was funded through cash and the assumption of existing debt. Vistra’s CEO, Jim Burke, emphasized the company’s disciplined approach to growth and the alignment of these assets with Vistra’s existing portfolio, which will support the company’s operational capabilities and customer needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $223.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Completes $2 Billion Note Offering

On October 10, 2025, Vistra Operations Company LLC, a subsidiary of Vistra Corp., completed a $2 billion private offering of senior secured notes. The proceeds will be used for refinancing, general corporate purposes, and potentially funding an acquisition, impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $242.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Amends Commodity Linked Credit Agreement

On October 1, 2025, Vistra Operations Company LLC, a subsidiary of Vistra Corp., amended its Commodity Linked Credit Agreement initially dated February 4, 2022. The amendment extends the Revolving Credit Maturity Date to September 30, 2026, modifies the Borrowing Base calculation, and includes other conforming changes, impacting the company’s financial obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $236.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Secures 20-Year Carbon-Free Power Deal

On September 29, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced a 20-year power purchase agreement with a large investment-grade company to supply 1,200 MW of carbon-free power from the Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant. Power delivery is expected to start in the fourth quarter of 2027, reaching full capacity by 2032. This agreement is anticipated to enhance Vistra’s financial performance, with an expected increase in Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth by approximately 8-10% if full capacity is utilized.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $223.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.