Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSE:VST
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Vistra Corp
(NYSE:VST)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$152.00
â–¼(-2.50% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is held up by a very constructive earnings outlook and positive multi-year cash-flow guidance, but is tempered by moderate financial-statement quality (leverage and 2025 uncertainty), bearish price trend signals, and a stretched valuation (high P/E with low yield).
Positive Factors
Durable cash generation
Management's multi‑year cash generation guidance (> $10bn through YE‑2027, $3.6bn adj FCF in 2025) indicates structural free‑cash capability. Sustained cash makes Vistra able to fund debt reduction, growth investments and buybacks, improving financial optionality over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Material leverage magnifies returns in strong cycles but raises refinancing, interest‑rate and covenant risk if markets soften. High net debt limits flexibility for unforeseen capital needs, increases vulnerability to cash‑flow volatility, and could constrain future M&A or buyback optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable cash generation
Management's multi‑year cash generation guidance (> $10bn through YE‑2027, $3.6bn adj FCF in 2025) indicates structural free‑cash capability. Sustained cash makes Vistra able to fund debt reduction, growth investments and buybacks, improving financial optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Vistra Corp (VST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$52.78B
Dividend Yield0.56%
Average Volume (3M)4.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)58.1
Beta (1Y)1.99
Revenue Growth42.77%
EPS Growth-47.64%
CountryUS
Employees6,850
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.54
Shares Outstanding338,549,300
10 Day Avg. Volume3,389,846
30 Day Avg. Volume4,432,362
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.84
Price to Book (P/B)10.73
Price to Sales (P/S)3.23
P/FCF Ratio424.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$231.22Price Target Upside48.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)8.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.35B
Vistra Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and na...
How the Company Makes Money
Vistra primarily makes money through (1) selling electricity generated from its power plants into wholesale power markets and (2) selling electricity (and related products) to end-use customers through its retail electricity business.
1) Wholesal...
Vistra Corp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial story: record 2025 results, meaningful fleet expansion through acquisitions, large long-term nuclear PPAs, robust cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. Management highlighted operational resilience during adverse weather and a favorable demand backdrop (U.S. demand +2.5% y/y), and provided constructive multi-year cash-per-share targets. Notable challenges include specific plant outages, battery facility issues, regulatory and interconnection uncertainty in PJM, and that several growth benefits are backloaded into later years. Overall, the favorable achievements and materially improving cash and earnings visibility substantially outweigh the identified challenges.Positive Updates
Record Financial Results for 2025
Vistra delivered approximately $5.912 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth for full year 2025, both meaningfully above the midpoint of original guidance ranges.
Negative Updates
Operational Outages and Battery Issues
Generation performance was offset in part by extended outages at Martin Lake Unit 1 and issues at Moss Landing battery facilities, which reduced contributions despite overall strong generation results.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Results for 2025
Vistra delivered approximately $5.912 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth for full year 2025, both meaningfully above the midpoint of original guidance ranges.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vistra reiterated strong near‑term and multi‑year guidance: FY‑2025 adjusted EBITDA was $5.912 billion with adjusted free cash flow before growth of about $3.6 billion (generation $4.29B, retail $1.622B), U.S. demand hit ~4,200 TWh in 2025 (+~2.5% vs. 2024), and the fleet currently runs at ~60% utilization; the company expects 2026 adjusted free cash flow before growth per share to exceed $12.50 and, including announced transactions, to rise to ~ $16 in 2027, with a pathway to $22–$25 longer‑term under aggressive share repurchase assumptions. Key balance‑sheet and capital‑allocation metrics include projecting >$10 billion of cash generation through year‑end 2027, allocating roughly $3 billion to equity holders and ~$4 billion to accretive growth investments (including Cogentrix, Permian builds and PJM uprates) while leaving >$3 billion of additional capital available and targeting net debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~2.3x by YE‑2027; buybacks have retired ~167 million shares at an average cost below $36 with ~$1.8 billion authorization remaining. Strategic transaction and fleet metrics cited in guidance: Lotus added ~2,600 MW, Cogentrix is ~5,500 MW at ~$730/kW net of tax benefits (expecting mid‑single‑digit adjusted FCF per share accretion in 2027 and high‑single‑digit on average ’27–’29), contracted nuclear capacity is ~3.8 GW (Amazon 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak; Meta 2,176 MW + 433 MW uprates), Comanche initial energization expected Q4‑2027/full ramp Q4‑2032, Meta deliveries starting Dec‑2026/Dec‑2027 with uprates through 2031–2034, and Vistra sees thermal generation supplying ~93% of ERCOT during the tightest hours (Winter Storm Fern), supporting expectations of durable load growth (ERCOT peak +3–5% annual, PJM low single‑digit through 2030).Vistra Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.97B | 19.38B | 15.54B | 17.84B | 13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.97B | 7.69B | 5.17B | 3.81B | 60.00M |
| EBITDA | 5.25B | 7.19B | 4.62B | 1.29B | 852.00M |
| Net Income | 944.00M | 2.66B | 1.49B | -1.23B | -1.27B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 41.55B | 37.77B | 32.97B | 32.79B | 29.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 816.00M | 1.19B | 3.48B | 455.00M | 1.32B |
| Total Debt | 20.39B | 17.36B | 14.68B | 13.34B | 11.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 36.44B | 32.19B | 27.64B | 27.87B | 21.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.11B | 5.57B | 5.31B | 4.90B | 8.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 129.00M | 2.48B | 3.78B | -816.00M | -1.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.07B | 4.56B | 5.45B | 485.00M | -206.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.40B | -5.28B | -2.15B | -1.24B | -1.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -74.00M | -1.60B | -294.00M | -80.00M | 2.27B |
Vistra Corp Technical Analysis
Neutral
155.89
Price Trends
160.12
Negative
163.76
Negative
180.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.71
Negative
49.01
Neutral
62.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 155.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 155.67, below the 50-day MA of 160.12, and below the 200-day MA of 180.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VST.
Vistra Corp Risk Analysis
Vistra Corp disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vistra Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vistra Corp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $73.22B | 16.71 | 12.06% | 3.25% | 7.66% | 37.42% | |
74 Outperform | $88.71B | 21.62 | 7.66% | 4.03% | -7.06% | 38.21% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $64.60B | 31.37 | 5.82% | 2.91% | 9.07% | -28.58% | |
60 Neutral | $34.34B | 35.94 | 39.65% | 1.11% | 6.40% | 62.12% | |
58 Neutral | $52.78B | 58.07 | 18.91% | 0.56% | 42.77% | -47.64% | |
56 Neutral | $55.54B | 16.69 | 10.77% | 4.59% | 12.72% | 4.90% |
* Utilities Sector Average
VST
Vistra Corp
155.89
47.19
43.41%
AEP
American Electric Power
134.71
34.84
34.89%
D
Dominion Energy
63.20
13.57
27.34%
NGG
National Grid Transco
89.96
27.10
43.10%
NRG
NRG Energy
160.30
68.55
74.71%
SRE
Sempra Energy
98.88
33.96
52.31%
Vistra Corp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Vistra Corp completes major secured notes financing
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Vistra Operations Company LLC completed a $2.25 billion private offering of senior secured notes, split between $1.0 billion of 4.700% notes due 2031 and $1.25 billion of 5.350% notes due 2036, issued under its existing secure...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vistra Signs Long-Term Nuclear Power Deal With Meta
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
In January 2026, Vistra announced 20-year power purchase agreements with Meta Platforms to supply a total of 2,609 MW of carbon-free power and capacity from its PJM-region nuclear plants, including existing output from the Perry and Davis-Besse fa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.