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Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSE:VST

Vistra Corp (VST) AI Stock Analysis

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VST

Vistra Corp

(NYSE:VST)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$169.00
â–²(2.89% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by moderate financial fundamentals (strong margins but pressured revenue growth, declining net margin, and high leverage). Technicals are currently weak with price below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is unattractive given a high P/E and low yield. Offsetting these risks, the latest earnings call was constructive with tightened 2025 guidance and strong multi-year growth outlook supported by strategic deals.
Positive Factors
Strong gross & EBITDA margins
Sustained high gross margins and healthy EBITDA margins reflect efficient generation economics and scale advantages. This operating profitability supports durable cash generation, funds capital projects and shareholder returns, and cushions the business against commodity and retail volatility over years.
Long-term nuclear PPA with Meta
A multi-decade PPA with a major technology customer creates predictable, contracted cash flows and monetizes nuclear assets. Projected uprate-driven FCF gains (estimated +8–10% from operating output, +5–7% from uprates) materially strengthen long-term cash generation and asset ROI.
Scale growth via acquisitions
Acquiring large, modern gas-fired capacity improves geographic diversification across PJM/ISO‑NE/ERCOT and bolsters market position. Increased scale should enhance capacity market participation, operational flexibility and long-term revenue diversity once regulatory approvals complete mid‑late 2026.
Negative Factors
Elevated financial leverage
High leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure, particularly as Vistra continues M&A and uprate capex. Large secured financings increase collateral encumbrances, constraining ability to absorb market shocks or opportunistic investments over the medium term.
Declining net margin & revenue growth
A falling net margin and negative revenue growth point to cooling core profitability and demand challenges. If sustained, this erodes free cash flow expansion, pressures capital allocation to growth and returns, and makes funding uprates, acquisitions and dividends more sensitive to operational performance.
Regulatory/market risk in PJM capacity rules
Policy moves to cap auctions, change interconnection rules or create backstop procurement can materially lower capacity revenues and alter interconnection economics. As a large PJM participant, Vistra faces structural revenue and return uncertainty if capacity market mechanics or price collars reduce future contracted and merchant earnings.

Vistra Corp (VST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vistra Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyVistra Energy generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily from the sale of electricity and related services. Its competitive generation segment earns income by producing and selling electricity to wholesale markets and directly to retailers, leveraging its diverse portfolio of power plants. The retail segment contributes significantly to revenue by supplying electricity to end-users, often through fixed-rate and variable-rate plans. Additionally, Vistra benefits from ancillary services such as demand response and energy efficiency programs. The company has established significant partnerships and agreements, including long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and collaborations with renewable energy developers, which enhance its revenue stability and expand its market presence. Overall, Vistra's focus on a balanced energy portfolio and strategic market positioning allows it to effectively capitalize on industry trends and customer demand.

Vistra Corp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with significant achievements such as a major power purchase agreement, strong financial performance, successful acquisitions, and robust capital returns to shareholders. However, challenges remain in the form of operational outages and retail segment variability.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Landmark Power Purchase Agreement
Vistra announced a 20-year power purchase agreement at Comanche Peak, enabling the customer to energize up to 1,200 megawatts of new load and ensuring operations into the 2050s.
Strong Financial Performance and Guidance
Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 is narrowed to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion. For 2026, adjusted EBITDA is projected at $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion, and for 2027, an adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion.
Successful Acquisition
Vistra successfully closed the acquisition of approximately 2.6 gigawatts of natural gas-fired assets from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, enhancing geographic footprint and meeting diverse customer needs.
Capital Return to Shareholders
Since 2021, Vistra has returned over $6.7 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, with an additional $2.9 billion planned, including a new $1 billion share repurchase authorization.
Growth in Data Center Demand
Electricity consumption is undergoing a fundamental shift with data center development remaining robust, particularly in PJM and ERCOT markets.
Negative Updates
Extended Outages Impact
The generation segment faced impacts from extended outages at Martin Lake Unit 1 and Moss Landing battery facilities.
Retail Segment Challenges
Third-quarter retail EBITDA was $37 million, impacted by weather-driven gains in the previous year that were not repeated and intra-year timing impacts of supply costs.
Company Guidance
During Vistra's third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company narrowed its guidance range for 2025 adjusted EBITDA to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth to $3.3 billion to $3.5 billion. Furthermore, Vistra introduced guidance ranges for 2026, projecting adjusted EBITDA between $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth ranging from $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion. For 2027, Vistra set an adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion. The company highlighted the successful closure of the acquisition of approximately 2.6 gigawatts of natural gas-fired assets from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, as well as the announcement of a power purchase agreement at Comanche Peak. Additionally, Vistra aims to develop two gas-fired units in West Texas, reflecting its strategic focus on sustainable growth and value creation.

Vistra Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong gross profit and healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins support operating performance, but profitability has cooled (net margin down to 9.94% from 13.72%), revenue growth is negative (-2.52% TTM), leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity 3.12), and free cash flow growth is declining (-4.08% TTM) despite solid cash conversion (FCF/net income 1.76).
Income Statement
72
Positive
Vistra Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at 57.35%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 9.94% in the TTM, down from 13.72% in 2024, suggesting declining profitability. Revenue growth has been negative recently, with a -2.52% rate in the TTM, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation. Despite this, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.12 in 2024, indicating significant leverage, which poses financial risk. However, the return on equity is robust at 19.24% in the TTM, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a reliance on debt financing, which could impact financial stability.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -4.08% in the TTM, indicating potential cash generation issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.76, suggesting good cash conversion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available for the TTM, but historical data indicates variability, highlighting potential cash flow management challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue21.75B19.38B15.54B17.84B13.33B11.06B
Gross Profit8.18B7.69B5.17B3.81B60.00M2.50B
EBITDA5.15B7.19B4.62B1.29B852.00M3.16B
Net Income1.15B2.66B1.49B-1.23B-1.27B636.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets38.02B37.77B32.97B32.79B29.68B25.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments602.00M1.19B3.48B455.00M1.32B406.00M
Total Debt17.50B17.36B14.68B13.34B11.01B9.88B
Total Liabilities32.80B32.19B27.64B27.87B21.39B16.85B
Stockholders Equity5.21B5.57B5.31B4.90B8.29B8.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.65B2.48B3.78B-816.00M-1.24B2.08B
Operating Cash Flow3.99B4.56B5.45B485.00M-206.00M3.34B
Investing Cash Flow-2.48B-5.28B-2.15B-1.24B-1.15B-1.57B
Financing Cash Flow-1.81B-1.60B-294.00M-80.00M2.27B-1.80B

Vistra Corp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price164.26
Price Trends
50DMA
167.00
Negative
100DMA
182.38
Negative
200DMA
177.79
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.37
Negative
RSI
48.03
Neutral
STOCH
42.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 164.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 163.95, below the 50-day MA of 167.00, and below the 200-day MA of 177.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VST.

Vistra Corp Risk Analysis

Vistra Corp disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vistra Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vistra Corp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$84.09B22.497.53%4.03%-7.06%38.21%
70
Outperform
$63.62B17.4312.85%3.25%7.66%37.42%
68
Neutral
$29.73B22.6764.19%1.11%6.40%62.12%
67
Neutral
$51.84B20.669.27%4.59%12.72%4.90%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
$56.64B26.727.10%2.91%9.07%-28.58%
63
Neutral
$55.66B58.6821.63%0.56%42.77%-47.64%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VST
Vistra Corp
165.64
-9.70
-5.53%
AEP
American Electric Power
119.12
24.39
25.75%
D
Dominion Energy
60.71
7.44
13.96%
NGG
National Grid Transco
84.68
25.51
43.11%
NRG
NRG Energy
155.11
51.52
49.74%
SRE
Sempra Energy
86.78
6.13
7.60%

Vistra Corp Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Vistra Corp completes major secured notes financing
Positive
Jan 27, 2026

On January 22, 2026, Vistra Operations Company LLC completed a $2.25 billion private offering of senior secured notes, split between $1.0 billion of 4.700% notes due 2031 and $1.25 billion of 5.350% notes due 2036, issued under its existing secured notes indenture and guaranteed by certain subsidiaries with a first-priority security interest over a substantial portion of the group’s assets and equity. The transaction yielded approximately $2.225 billion in net proceeds, which Vistra plans to use alongside cash on hand to fund part of the consideration for its previously announced acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, to refinance existing indebtedness, and to cover related fees and expenses; the notes feature standard redemption, change-of-control and covenant protections, underscoring Vistra’s continued use of secured debt markets to support M&A-driven expansion and balance-sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $227.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Corp stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vistra Signs Long-Term Nuclear Power Deal With Meta
Positive
Jan 9, 2026

In January 2026, Vistra announced 20-year power purchase agreements with Meta Platforms to supply a total of 2,609 MW of carbon-free power and capacity from its PJM-region nuclear plants, including existing output from the Perry and Davis-Besse facilities and future uprate capacity at Perry, Davis-Besse, and Beaver Valley. Deliveries of operating capacity are expected to begin in late 2026 and reach full delivery by the end of 2027, while partial delivery of uprate capacity is targeted by 2031 and full delivery by the end of 2034; to enable the uprates, Vistra plans capital expenditures from 2026 through 2034 and projects that these investments will meet or exceed its mid-teens levered return target and increase Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth by an estimated 8%-10% from operating output and an additional 5%-7% from uprates, reinforcing the company’s strategy to monetize its nuclear fleet and strengthen long-term cash generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Hold with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Vistra Energy to Acquire Cogentrix Natural Gas Portfolio
Positive
Jan 5, 2026

On January 5, 2026, Vistra announced definitive agreements for its subsidiary Vistra Operations Company LLC to acquire Cogentrix Energy’s portfolio of 10 modern natural gas-fired power plants totaling roughly 5,500 MW across PJM, ISO New England, and ERCOT, via a purchase and sale structure combined with a merger that will make the portfolio a wholly owned Vistra subsidiary. The transaction, approved by Vistra’s board and expected to close in mid-to-late 2026 subject to federal antitrust, energy, and state regulatory approvals, carries a net purchase price of about $4.0 billion, funded through approximately $2.3 billion in cash, $0.9 billion in Vistra stock, and the assumption of about $1.5 billion of Cogentrix debt, partly backstopped by a $2.0 billion committed bridge facility from Goldman Sachs Bank USA; it is expected to expand Vistra’s generation capacity to roughly 50,000 MW, enhance its presence in fast‑growing U.S. power markets, and support its stated capital allocation plans while preserving balance-sheet strength through a mix of cash and equity and customary safeguards such as termination fees and liability caps for deal failure.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Hold with a $179.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Vistra Energy Secures Capacity in PJM Auction
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

On December 17, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced the results of its participation in the PJM Capacity Auction for the planning year 2027/2028, securing approximately 10,566 megawatts of capacity at a weighted average clearing price of $333.44 per megawatt-day. This development underscores the company’s strong presence in the power generation market and its strategic efforts to stay competitive and ensure a reliable energy supply, with potential benefits for both operational stability and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $233.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Vistra Energy Announces Annual Tax Payment Details
Neutral
Nov 17, 2025

On November 14, 2025, Vistra Energy announced an annual tax payment of $687,690 for the taxable year of 2024, to be distributed to holders of TRA Rights on December 1, 2025. This payment includes a return of basis and interest income, with federal tax law potentially requiring withholding on interest income if holders fail to provide a certified taxpayer identification number.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $231.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Vistra Energy Completes Major Acquisition of Gas Facilities
Positive
Oct 28, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Vistra Operations Company LLC, a subsidiary of Vistra Corp., completed the acquisition of seven natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, totaling approximately 2,600 MW of capacity. This strategic acquisition, which received all necessary regulatory approvals, enhances Vistra’s ability to deliver reliable and flexible power across key competitive markets such as PJM, New England, New York, and California. The transaction, valued at a base purchase price of $1.9 billion, was funded through cash and the assumption of existing debt. Vistra’s CEO, Jim Burke, emphasized the company’s disciplined approach to growth and the alignment of these assets with Vistra’s existing portfolio, which will support the company’s operational capabilities and customer needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $223.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 28, 2026