Vistra Energy (VST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.77B
• Dividend Yield: 0.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.0
• Beta (1Y): 2.12
• Revenue Growth: 42.77%
• EPS Growth: -47.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,850
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 1.75
• Shares Outstanding: 338,825,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,375,731
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,184,638
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.22
• 1Y Price Target: $236.92
• Price Target Upside: 36.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $19.52B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $177.00 ▲(2.05% Upside)

Vistra Energy's overall stock score is driven by its operational efficiency and strategic corporate events, which are positive factors. However, the high leverage and bearish technical indicators present significant risks. The high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, while the earnings call highlights both achievements and challenges. Addressing revenue growth and leverage concerns could improve the company's long-term stability.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition enhances Vistra's operational capabilities and market presence, supporting long-term growth and competitive positioning in key markets.

Sustainable Energy Initiatives

This agreement secures a long-term carbon-free power supply, aligning with sustainability goals and potentially boosting financial performance.

Capital Return to Shareholders

Consistent capital returns demonstrate strong cash generation and management's commitment to shareholder value, enhancing investor confidence.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting Vistra's ability to invest in growth opportunities and navigate economic downturns.

Declining Profitability

Decreasing profitability may hinder Vistra's ability to sustain competitive advantages and invest in strategic initiatives, affecting long-term growth.

Cash Flow Variability

Variability in cash flow management could challenge Vistra's ability to fund operations and strategic investments, impacting financial stability.

Vistra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Vistra Energy generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily from the sale of electricity and related services. Its competitive generation segment earns income by producing and selling electricity to wholesale markets and directly to retailers, leveraging its diverse portfolio of power plants. The retail segment contributes significantly to revenue by supplying electricity to end-users, often through fixed-rate and variable-rate plans. Additionally, Vistra benefits from ancillary services such as demand response and energy efficiency programs. The company has established significant partnerships and agreements, including long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and collaborations with renewable energy developers, which enhance its revenue stability and expand its market presence. Overall, Vistra's focus on a balanced energy portfolio and strategic market positioning allows it to effectively capitalize on industry trends and customer demand.

Vistra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vistra Energy demonstrates operational efficiency with strong gross and EBIT margins, but faces challenges in revenue growth and profitability. The high leverage poses financial risk, although the company effectively generates returns on equity. Cash flow management shows variability, with recent declines in free cash flow growth. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position but should address revenue and leverage concerns to enhance long-term stability.

Income Statement

Vistra Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is strong at 57.35%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 9.94% in the TTM, down from 13.72% in 2024, suggesting declining profitability. Revenue growth has been negative recently, with a -2.52% rate in the TTM, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation. Despite this, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.12 in 2024, indicating significant leverage, which poses financial risk. However, the return on equity is robust at 19.24% in the TTM, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a reliance on debt financing, which could impact financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -4.08% in the TTM, indicating potential cash generation issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.76, suggesting good cash conversion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available for the TTM, but historical data indicates variability, highlighting potential cash flow management challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.75B	19.38B	15.54B	17.84B	13.33B	11.06B
Gross Profit	8.18B	7.69B	5.17B	3.81B	60.00M	2.50B
EBITDA	5.15B	7.19B	4.62B	1.29B	852.00M	3.16B
Net Income	1.15B	2.66B	1.49B	-1.23B	-1.27B	636.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.02B	37.77B	32.97B	32.79B	29.68B	25.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	602.00M	1.19B	3.48B	455.00M	1.32B	406.00M
Total Debt	17.50B	17.36B	14.68B	13.34B	11.01B	9.88B
Total Liabilities	32.80B	32.19B	27.64B	27.87B	21.39B	16.85B
Stockholders Equity	5.21B	5.57B	5.31B	4.90B	8.29B	8.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.98B	2.48B	3.78B	-816.00M	-1.24B	2.08B
Operating Cash Flow	3.99B	4.56B	5.45B	485.00M	-206.00M	3.34B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.48B	-5.28B	-2.15B	-1.24B	-1.15B	-1.57B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.81B	-1.60B	-294.00M	-80.00M	2.27B	-1.80B

Vistra Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 173.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 173.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 172.06, below the 50-day MA of 184.59, and above the 200-day MA of 171.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VST.

Vistra Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NGG	74 Outperform	$74.68B	20.12	7.53%	4.10%	-7.06%	38.21%
NRG	69 Neutral	$30.69B	23.40	64.19%	1.10%	6.40%	62.12%
AEP	68 Neutral	$61.19B	16.76	12.85%	3.26%	7.66%	37.42%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
VST	63 Neutral	$58.77B	61.96	21.63%	0.52%	42.77%	-47.64%
D	63 Neutral	$50.67B	20.19	9.27%	4.50%	12.72%	4.90%
SRE	61 Neutral	$57.38B	27.07	7.10%	2.93%	9.07%	-28.58%

Vistra Energy Corporate Events

Vistra Energy Announces Annual Tax Payment Details

On November 14, 2025, Vistra Energy announced an annual tax payment of $687,690 for the taxable year of 2024, to be distributed to holders of TRA Rights on December 1, 2025. This payment includes a return of basis and interest income, with federal tax law potentially requiring withholding on interest income if holders fail to provide a certified taxpayer identification number.

Vistra Energy Completes Major Acquisition of Gas Facilities

On October 22, 2025, Vistra Operations Company LLC, a subsidiary of Vistra Corp., completed the acquisition of seven natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, totaling approximately 2,600 MW of capacity. This strategic acquisition, which received all necessary regulatory approvals, enhances Vistra’s ability to deliver reliable and flexible power across key competitive markets such as PJM, New England, New York, and California. The transaction, valued at a base purchase price of $1.9 billion, was funded through cash and the assumption of existing debt. Vistra’s CEO, Jim Burke, emphasized the company’s disciplined approach to growth and the alignment of these assets with Vistra’s existing portfolio, which will support the company’s operational capabilities and customer needs.

Vistra Energy Completes $2 Billion Note Offering

On October 10, 2025, Vistra Operations Company LLC, a subsidiary of Vistra Corp., completed a $2 billion private offering of senior secured notes. The proceeds will be used for refinancing, general corporate purposes, and potentially funding an acquisition, impacting the company’s financial strategy and market positioning.

Vistra Energy Amends Commodity Linked Credit Agreement

On October 1, 2025, Vistra Operations Company LLC, a subsidiary of Vistra Corp., amended its Commodity Linked Credit Agreement initially dated February 4, 2022. The amendment extends the Revolving Credit Maturity Date to September 30, 2026, modifies the Borrowing Base calculation, and includes other conforming changes, impacting the company’s financial obligations.

Vistra Energy Secures 20-Year Carbon-Free Power Deal

On September 29, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced a 20-year power purchase agreement with a large investment-grade company to supply 1,200 MW of carbon-free power from the Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant. Power delivery is expected to start in the fourth quarter of 2027, reaching full capacity by 2032. This agreement is anticipated to enhance Vistra’s financial performance, with an expected increase in Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth by approximately 8-10% if full capacity is utilized.