Vistra Corp (VST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.92B
• Dividend Yield: 0.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 78.3
• Beta (1Y): 2.08
• Revenue Growth: 42.77%
• EPS Growth: -47.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,850
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 338,825,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,209,303
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,401,275
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -147.14
• 1Y Price Target: $230.27
• Price Target Upside: 30.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $22.91B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $187.00 ▲(5.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by a solid but risk-tilted financial profile (strong 2023–2024 results but high leverage and weaker/uncertain 2025 annual figures) and a very constructive earnings call with clear multi-year cash flow targets and capital allocation plans. Technicals are supportive but somewhat extended, while valuation is the main drag due to the high P/E and low yield.

Positive Factors

Robust multi-year cash generation

Management's projection of over $10B cash generation through YE‑2027 indicates durable free cash flow capacity across cycles. This multi-year cash visibility supports debt reduction, disciplined buybacks and accretive growth spending, improving financial flexibility and lowering execution risk over the medium term.

Long-term nuclear PPAs

Multi-decade PPAs with major tech customers lock in predictable revenue and cashflow from baseload nuclear output. These contracts de-risk a portion of the fleet from wholesale price volatility, provide long-term cashflow fungibility for capital planning, and materially bolster earnings visibility over years.

Fleet expansion via acquisitions

Adding ~5.5 GW of modern gas-fired capacity strengthens Vistra's market footprint across PJM, ISO‑NE and ERCOT. Growing a more efficient generation fleet increases optionality to capture regional demand growth and capacity markets, and management projects accretive FCF contribution once integrated.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Sustained high leverage magnifies downside during power price weakness or rising rates. It constrains capital flexibility, raises refinancing and covenant risk for large transactions, and makes targeted credit improvement dependent on successful cash generation and timely deal synergies over coming years.

Earnings and cash volatility

Cyclicality in merchant power and retail exposure has produced large swings in revenue and margins. A negative EBITDA margin in 2025 underscores sensitivity to commodity swings, outages and one-offs, reducing near-term predictability of free cash flow and complicating multi-year guidance execution.

Regulatory and interconnection uncertainty

Ongoing PJM regulatory and interconnection process changes can delay project timelines, constrain data‑center and uprate revenue ramp-ups, and raise execution risk for contracted deliveries. Many growth benefits are backloaded, increasing sensitivity to regulatory outcomes and extension of project schedules.

Vistra Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Vistra Energy generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily from the sale of electricity and related services. Its competitive generation segment earns income by producing and selling electricity to wholesale markets and directly to retailers, leveraging its diverse portfolio of power plants. The retail segment contributes significantly to revenue by supplying electricity to end-users, often through fixed-rate and variable-rate plans. Additionally, Vistra benefits from ancillary services such as demand response and energy efficiency programs. The company has established significant partnerships and agreements, including long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and collaborations with renewable energy developers, which enhance its revenue stability and expand its market presence. Overall, Vistra's focus on a balanced energy portfolio and strategic market positioning allows it to effectively capitalize on industry trends and customer demand.

Vistra Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show strong profitability and cash generation in 2023–2024, but stability is a concern given volatile revenue, a weaker/uncertain 2025 annual picture (including a negative EBITDA margin), and high leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.7x–3.1x in 2022–2024). Missing/zero-reported 2025 balance sheet and cash flow items reduce confidence in the latest trend.

Income Statement

Profitability improved meaningfully from 2021–2022 losses to strong 2023–2024 earnings, with 2024 showing healthy margins and solid net income. However, 2025 annual results show weaker revenue and much lower profitability versus 2024, and the negative EBITDA margin in 2025 suggests elevated costs or significant non-cash/one-time impacts. Revenue growth has been volatile (down in 2023, up sharply in 2024, down again in 2025), reducing confidence in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is a key constraint: debt-to-equity is high in 2022–2024 (roughly 2.7x–3.1x), which can magnify returns in strong years but increases risk if power markets weaken or refinancing costs rise. Equity returns rebounded sharply in 2023–2024, but that also reflects operating leverage on a highly geared balance sheet. The 2025 balance sheet fields show zeros for debt and equity, limiting year-over-year balance-sheet assessment for the latest period.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been strong in 2023–2024, with healthy operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, supporting debt service and capital returns; cash conversion was reasonable in both years (free cash flow was a meaningful portion of net income). That said, cash flow was weak/negative in 2021–2022, highlighting cyclicality and execution risk. 2025 cash flow metrics are reported as zero with a -100% free cash flow growth figure, which appears incomplete and reduces visibility into the most recent cash trajectory.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.74B	19.38B	15.54B	17.84B	13.33B
Gross Profit	0.00	7.69B	5.17B	3.81B	60.00M
EBITDA	5.25B	7.19B	4.62B	1.29B	852.00M
Net Income	752.00M	2.66B	1.49B	-1.23B	-1.27B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.86B	37.77B	32.97B	32.79B	29.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.07B	1.19B	3.48B	455.00M	1.32B
Total Debt	1.80B	17.36B	14.68B	13.34B	11.01B
Total Liabilities	36.44B	32.19B	27.64B	27.87B	21.39B
Stockholders Equity	5.11B	5.57B	5.31B	4.90B	8.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.07B	2.48B	3.78B	-816.00M	-1.24B
Operating Cash Flow	4.07B	4.56B	5.45B	485.00M	-206.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.40B	-5.28B	-2.15B	-1.24B	-1.15B
Financing Cash Flow	-74.00M	-1.60B	-294.00M	-80.00M	2.27B

Vistra Corp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 176.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 176.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 163.09, above the 50-day MA of 163.48, and below the 200-day MA of 181.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VST.

Vistra Corp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AEP	80 Outperform	$72.38B	20.09	12.33%	3.25%	7.66%	37.42%
NGG	74 Outperform	$93.02B	24.90	7.53%	4.03%	-7.06%	38.21%
NRG	66 Neutral	$38.42B	44.68	41.55%	1.11%	6.40%	62.12%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
D	63 Neutral	$55.49B	18.28	10.63%	4.59%	12.72%	4.90%
SRE	63 Neutral	$62.89B	35.01	7.10%	2.91%	9.07%	-28.58%
VST	62 Neutral	$58.92B	78.35	21.63%	0.56%	42.77%	-47.64%

Vistra Corp Corporate Events

Vistra Corp completes major secured notes financing

On January 22, 2026, Vistra Operations Company LLC completed a $2.25 billion private offering of senior secured notes, split between $1.0 billion of 4.700% notes due 2031 and $1.25 billion of 5.350% notes due 2036, issued under its existing secured notes indenture and guaranteed by certain subsidiaries with a first-priority security interest over a substantial portion of the group’s assets and equity. The transaction yielded approximately $2.225 billion in net proceeds, which Vistra plans to use alongside cash on hand to fund part of the consideration for its previously announced acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, to refinance existing indebtedness, and to cover related fees and expenses; the notes feature standard redemption, change-of-control and covenant protections, underscoring Vistra’s continued use of secured debt markets to support M&A-driven expansion and balance-sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $227.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Corp stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Signs Long-Term Nuclear Power Deal With Meta

In January 2026, Vistra announced 20-year power purchase agreements with Meta Platforms to supply a total of 2,609 MW of carbon-free power and capacity from its PJM-region nuclear plants, including existing output from the Perry and Davis-Besse facilities and future uprate capacity at Perry, Davis-Besse, and Beaver Valley. Deliveries of operating capacity are expected to begin in late 2026 and reach full delivery by the end of 2027, while partial delivery of uprate capacity is targeted by 2031 and full delivery by the end of 2034; to enable the uprates, Vistra plans capital expenditures from 2026 through 2034 and projects that these investments will meet or exceed its mid-teens levered return target and increase Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth by an estimated 8%-10% from operating output and an additional 5%-7% from uprates, reinforcing the company’s strategy to monetize its nuclear fleet and strengthen long-term cash generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Hold with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy to Acquire Cogentrix Natural Gas Portfolio

On January 5, 2026, Vistra announced definitive agreements for its subsidiary Vistra Operations Company LLC to acquire Cogentrix Energy’s portfolio of 10 modern natural gas-fired power plants totaling roughly 5,500 MW across PJM, ISO New England, and ERCOT, via a purchase and sale structure combined with a merger that will make the portfolio a wholly owned Vistra subsidiary. The transaction, approved by Vistra’s board and expected to close in mid-to-late 2026 subject to federal antitrust, energy, and state regulatory approvals, carries a net purchase price of about $4.0 billion, funded through approximately $2.3 billion in cash, $0.9 billion in Vistra stock, and the assumption of about $1.5 billion of Cogentrix debt, partly backstopped by a $2.0 billion committed bridge facility from Goldman Sachs Bank USA; it is expected to expand Vistra’s generation capacity to roughly 50,000 MW, enhance its presence in fast‑growing U.S. power markets, and support its stated capital allocation plans while preserving balance-sheet strength through a mix of cash and equity and customary safeguards such as termination fees and liability caps for deal failure.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Hold with a $179.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Vistra Energy Secures Capacity in PJM Auction

On December 17, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced the results of its participation in the PJM Capacity Auction for the planning year 2027/2028, securing approximately 10,566 megawatts of capacity at a weighted average clearing price of $333.44 per megawatt-day. This development underscores the company’s strong presence in the power generation market and its strategic efforts to stay competitive and ensure a reliable energy supply, with potential benefits for both operational stability and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $233.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.