Vistra Corp. (VST)
NYSE:VST
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Earnings Data
Report Date
Aug 06, 2026Before Open (Confirmed)
Period Ending
2026 (Q2)Consensus EPS Forecast
2.02Last Year’s EPS
0.81Same Quarter Last Year
Strong Buy
Based on 11 Analysts Ratings
Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call was largely positive: management reported a record Q1 adjusted EBITDA ($1.494B, +20% YoY), strong generation availability (97% gas, 100% nuclear), a sizable development pipeline (~4,500 MW), aggressive capital returns (~$600M YTD), a major pending acquisition (5,500 MW Cogentrix) and a credit rating upgrade to investment-grade. Key risks center on policy and interconnection uncertainty (particularly in PJM and ERCOT batch processes), mild weather pressure on retail and challenging short-term storage economics. On balance, the operational and financial strengths and visible cash generation and capital deployment plans significantly outweigh the execution and regulatory timing risks.Company Guidance
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA
Delivered $1.494 billion of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, a record for a calendar first quarter — up ~20% year-over-year and nearly 85% versus Q1 2024.
Strong Generation Performance
Generation drove results with $1.426 billion of adjusted EBITDA; natural gas fleet achieved 97% commercial availability during storm 'Fern' and nuclear fleet operated at 100% availability.
Retail Resilience and Progress Toward Targets
Retail contributed $68 million of adjusted EBITDA and continues to benefit from strong customer counts and margins; management expects retail to achieve its medium-term adjusted EBITDA target despite an anticipated moderation from last year's record.
Strategic M&A and Contracting Initiatives
Announced acquisition of a 5,500 MW Cogentrix natural gas portfolio and long-term PPAs with Meta for ~2,600 MW at PJM nuclear sites; Cogentrix expected to close in H2 2026 (not included in current guidance).
Reaffirmed Guidance & Hedging
Reaffirmed 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth and maintained 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity; company is highly hedged through 2026–2027 under a comprehensive hedging program.
Capital Returned to Shareholders
Accelerated share repurchases of approximately $525 million in the first 4 months of 2026 and paid a Q1 dividend of ~ $75 million, totaling ~$600 million returned year-to-date; since Nov 2021 retired ~169 million shares at an average cost of ~$37 with ~$1.475 billion repurchase authorization remaining.
Balance Sheet & Credit Upgrade
Received investment-grade upgrade from Fitch (joining S&P upgrade last year), triggering fallaway provisions that released liens under certain secured debt agreements and supporting continued financial flexibility.
Development Pipeline and Organic Growth
Approximately 4,500 MW of organic development opportunities (contracted renewables, coal-to-gas conversions, Permian gas expansions and PJM nuclear uprates), with the majority expected online by 2028; uprate opportunities include >200 MW at Comanche Peak and ~300 MW at PJM gas sites.
Strong Cash Generation Outlook
Line of sight to >$10 billion of cash generation over 2026–2027; planned allocations include ~$3 billion to equity holders, ~$4 billion to accretive growth (including Cogentrix and development projects), and ~ $3 billion of additional available capital by year-end 2027.
Favorable Long-Term Demand Trends
Management sees structurally improved demand: forecasting ERCOT annual load growth of 5–6% through 2030 and PJM 2–3% annually, driven by hyperscaler CapEx and broader electrification.
VST Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed
VST Earnings-Related Price Changes
Report Date | Price 1 Day Before | Price 1 Day After | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
May 07, 2026 | $158.29 | $153.95 | -2.74% |
Feb 26, 2026 | $175.12 | $176.58 | +0.83% |
Nov 06, 2025 | $188.87 | $184.11 | -2.52% |
Aug 05, 2025 | $213.24 | $208.80 | -2.08% |
Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.
FAQ
When does Vistra Corp. (VST) report earnings?
Vistra Corp. (VST) is schdueled to report earning on Aug 06, 2026, Before Open (Confirmed).
What is Vistra Corp. (VST) earnings time?
Vistra Corp. (VST) earnings time is at Aug 06, 2026, Before Open (Confirmed).
Where can I see when companies are reporting earnings?
You can see which companies are reporting today on our designated earnings calendar.
What companies are reporting earnings today?
You can see a list of the companies which are reporting today on TipRanks earnings calendar.
What is VST EPS forecast?
VST EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter 2026 (Q2) is 2.02.
