Vistra Corp (VST) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports

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Earnings Data

Report Date

May 13, 2026

Before Open (Confirmed)

Period Ending

2026 (Q1)

Consensus EPS Forecast

1.39

Last Year’s EPS

-0.93

Same Quarter Last Year

Analyst Consensus

Strong Buy

Based on 11 Analysts Ratings

Earnings Call Summary

Q4 2025

Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026|

% Change Since:

Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive

The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial story: record 2025 results, meaningful fleet expansion through acquisitions, large long-term nuclear PPAs, robust cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. Management highlighted operational resilience during adverse weather and a favorable demand backdrop (U.S. demand +2.5% y/y), and provided constructive multi-year cash-per-share targets. Notable challenges include specific plant outages, battery facility issues, regulatory and interconnection uncertainty in PJM, and that several growth benefits are backloaded into later years. Overall, the favorable achievements and materially improving cash and earnings visibility substantially outweigh the identified challenges.

Company Guidance

Vistra reiterated strong near‑term and multi‑year guidance: FY‑2025 adjusted EBITDA was $5.912 billion with adjusted free cash flow before growth of about $3.6 billion (generation $4.29B, retail $1.622B), U.S. demand hit ~4,200 TWh in 2025 (+~2.5% vs. 2024), and the fleet currently runs at ~60% utilization; the company expects 2026 adjusted free cash flow before growth per share to exceed $12.50 and, including announced transactions, to rise to ~ $16 in 2027, with a pathway to $22–$25 longer‑term under aggressive share repurchase assumptions. Key balance‑sheet and capital‑allocation metrics include projecting >$10 billion of cash generation through year‑end 2027, allocating roughly $3 billion to equity holders and ~$4 billion to accretive growth investments (including Cogentrix, Permian builds and PJM uprates) while leaving >$3 billion of additional capital available and targeting net debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~2.3x by YE‑2027; buybacks have retired ~167 million shares at an average cost below $36 with ~$1.8 billion authorization remaining. Strategic transaction and fleet metrics cited in guidance: Lotus added ~2,600 MW, Cogentrix is ~5,500 MW at ~$730/kW net of tax benefits (expecting mid‑single‑digit adjusted FCF per share accretion in 2027 and high‑single‑digit on average ’27–’29), contracted nuclear capacity is ~3.8 GW (Amazon 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak; Meta 2,176 MW + 433 MW uprates), Comanche initial energization expected Q4‑2027/full ramp Q4‑2032, Meta deliveries starting Dec‑2026/Dec‑2027 with uprates through 2031–2034, and Vistra sees thermal generation supplying ~93% of ERCOT during the tightest hours (Winter Storm Fern), supporting expectations of durable load growth (ERCOT peak +3–5% annual, PJM low single‑digit through 2030).

Record Financial Results for 2025

Vistra delivered approximately $5.912 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth for full year 2025, both meaningfully above the midpoint of original guidance ranges.

Strong Generation and Retail Contributions

Generation contributed $4.290 billion and Retail $1.622 billion to adjusted EBITDA in 2025; Retail expected to produce ~ $1.4 billion adjusted EBITDA over the medium term despite some one-time tailwinds in 2025.

Operational Resilience During Winter Storm Fern

During a 9-day extreme cold event, Vistra operated safely and reliably; thermal generation supplied ~93% of ERCOT power during the tightest hours, highlighting fleet reliability and effective commercial risk management.

Material Fleet Expansion via Acquisitions

Closed Lotus acquisition (Oct 2025) adding ~2,600 MW of efficient natural gas capacity; announced Cogentrix acquisition (~5,500 MW) which would increase Vistra's modern combined-cycle fleet to ~26 GW. Cogentrix purchase price cited at ~$730 per kW (net of expected tax benefits).

Significant Long-Term Nuclear PPAs

Contracted ~3.8 GW of nuclear capacity via long-term PPAs including a 20-year 1,200 MW Amazon agreement at Comanche Peak and Meta agreements for 2,176 MW operating plus 433 MW of uprates; upon full ramp, Vistra sees a pathway to nearly 25% adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion annually.

Favorable Demand Trend and Utilization Opportunity

U.S. electricity consumption reached ~4,200 TWh in 2025, up ~2.5% vs 2024. Vistra expects continued growth, with projected annual peak load growth of 3%–5% in ERCOT and low single-digit in PJM through 2030. The fleet currently operates at ~60% utilization, with higher demand expected to raise utilization and asset economics.

Robust Cash Generation and Capital Framework

Projected to generate >$10 billion of cash through year-end 2027. Planned allocations include ~ $3 billion to equity holders (repurchases/dividends) and ~ $4 billion to accretive growth, leaving > $3 billion additional capital available. Target net debt to adjusted EBITDA ~2.3x by year-end 2027.

Share Repurchase Value Creation

Since Nov 2021, retired ~167 million shares at an average cost below $36, delivering over $20 billion of value; ~ $1.8 billion of repurchase authorization remains.

Forward Per-Share Cash Flow Outlook

Under current assumptions, adjusted free cash flow before growth per share > $12.5 for 2026 and approximately $16 for 2027; management outlined scenarios where per-share FCF could reach $22–$25 with disciplined share repurchases and accretive actions over time.

Hedging and Downside Protections

Comprehensive hedging program and nuclear PTC provide downside protection and greater earnings visibility for the coming years, supporting the cash flow outlook and credit profile improvement.

Vistra Corp (VST) Earnings, Revenues Date & History

The upcoming earnings date is based on a company’s previous reporting, and may be updated when the actual date is announced

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VST Earnings History

Report Date	Fiscal Quarter	Forecast / EPS	Last Year's EPS	EPS YoY Change	Slides	Play Transcript
May 13, 2026	2026 (Q1)	1.39 / -	-0.93	―	―	―
Feb 26, 2026	2025 (Q4)	2.31 / 0.55	1.105	-50.23% (-0.55)
Nov 06, 2025	2025 (Q3)	2.08 / 1.75	1.023	71.07% (+0.73)
Aug 05, 2025	2025 (Q2)	0.88 / 0.81	0.86	-5.81% (-0.05)
May 07, 2025	2025 (Q1)	0.54 / -0.93	-0.145	-541.38% (-0.79)
Feb 27, 2025	2024 (Q4)	2.22 / 1.10	-0.6	284.17% (+1.71)
Nov 07, 2024	2024 (Q3)	1.16 / 1.02	1.645	-37.81% (-0.62)
Aug 08, 2024	2024 (Q2)	1.38 / 0.86	1.152	-25.35% (-0.29)
May 08, 2024	2024 (Q1)	0.62 / -0.14	1.132	-112.81% (-1.28)
Feb 28, 2024	2023 (Q4)	-0.04 / -0.60	-0.74	18.92% (+0.14)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat

Missed

VST Earnings-Related Price Changes

Report Date	Price 1 Day Before	Price 1 Day After	Percentage Change
Feb 26, 2026	$175.36	$176.82	+0.83%
Nov 06, 2025	$189.13	$184.36	-2.52%
Aug 05, 2025	$213.53	$209.08	-2.08%
May 07, 2025	$144.26	$138.98	-3.66%

Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.