NRG Energy (NRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $31.66B
• Dividend Yield: 1.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: 6.40%
• EPS Growth: 62.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,637
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 2.78
• Shares Outstanding: 191,639,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,340,182
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,179,004
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.48
• 1Y Price Target: $207.11
• Price Target Upside: 26.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $29.99B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $181.00 ▲(10.90% Upside)

NRG Energy's overall score is driven by strong earnings call results and solid financial performance, offset by high leverage and valuation concerns. The technical indicators suggest a neutral market sentiment.

Positive Factors

Increased Financial Guidance

Raising financial guidance for the third consecutive year indicates strong confidence in future performance and strategic growth initiatives.

Record Quarterly Performance

Record quarterly performance demonstrates operational efficiency and effective cost management, supporting long-term profitability.

Expansion in Data Center Agreements

Expanding data center agreements enhances market position and diversifies revenue streams, aligning with structural growth trends in digital infrastructure.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage could pose financial risks, limiting flexibility in capital allocation and increasing vulnerability to interest rate changes.

Fluctuating Revenue Growth

Inconsistent revenue growth can indicate market volatility or operational challenges, potentially affecting long-term financial stability.

Challenges in PJM and Maryland Markets

Regulatory challenges in key markets may hinder competitive positioning and revenue potential, requiring strategic adjustments.

NRG Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated power company in the United States. It operates through Texas, East, and West. The company is involved in the producing, selling, and delivering electricity and related products and services to approximately 6 million residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers. It generates electricity using natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage. The company also provides system power, distributed generation, renewable products, backup generation, storage and distributed solar, demand response, and energy efficiency, and advisory services, as well as carbon management and specialty services; and on-site energy solutions. In addition, it trades in electric power, natural gas, and related commodities; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Further, the company procures fuels; provides transportation services; and directly sells energy, services, and products and services to retail customers under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, Stream, and XOOM Energy. As of December 31, 2021, it owns and leases power generation portfolio with approximately 18,000 megawatts of capacity at 25 plants. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

NRG Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and gas, with its Generation segment contributing significantly to earnings by operating a diverse fleet of power plants, including natural gas, coal, solar, and wind facilities. Revenue is obtained by selling electricity to wholesale markets and directly to retail customers. In the Retail segment, NRG earns revenue by providing electricity and gas services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers, often through fixed-rate and variable-rate pricing plans. Additionally, the company engages in energy service offerings like demand response and energy efficiency programs. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions, along with a focus on expanding its renewable energy portfolio, also play a crucial role in enhancing revenue streams and market presence.

NRG Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NRG Energy shows stable profitability and cash flow generation with a strong return on equity. However, high leverage and fluctuating revenue growth rates present potential risks.

Income Statement

NRG Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a modest revenue growth of 1.4%, with a gross profit margin of 20.5% and a net profit margin of 4.8%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are 8.1% and 12.7%, respectively, reflecting stable operational efficiency. However, the company has experienced fluctuating revenue growth rates over the years, indicating potential volatility in revenue streams.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.15 in the TTM period, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity is strong at 60.6%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 8.2%, reflecting a low proportion of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a 22.5% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.62, indicating a reasonable conversion of income to cash. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow growth suggest potential instability in cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	29.78B	28.13B	28.82B	31.54B	26.99B	9.09B
Gross Profit	6.12B	6.03B	2.30B	4.10B	6.51B	2.55B
EBITDA	3.79B	3.50B	1.75B	2.80B	4.18B	1.72B
Net Income	1.44B	1.13B	-202.00M	1.22B	2.19B	510.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	23.97B	24.02B	26.04B	29.15B	23.18B	14.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.69B	966.00M	541.00M	430.00M	250.00M	3.90B
Total Debt	12.11B	10.99B	10.97B	8.30B	8.29B	9.04B
Total Liabilities	22.00B	21.54B	23.13B	25.32B	19.58B	13.22B
Stockholders Equity	1.97B	2.48B	2.91B	3.83B	3.60B	1.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.71B	1.83B	-819.00M	-7.00M	224.00M	1.61B
Operating Cash Flow	2.74B	2.31B	-221.00M	360.00M	493.00M	1.84B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.53B	-24.00M	-910.00M	-332.00M	-3.04B	-494.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.25B	-1.75B	-400.00M	1.04B	-272.00M	2.20B

NRG Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 163.21
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 163.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 168.72, below the 50-day MA of 166.28, and above the 200-day MA of 138.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NRG.

NRG Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FE	72 Outperform	$26.54B	19.96	10.54%	3.78%	7.64%	48.61%
CNP	70 Neutral	$25.94B	25.09	9.61%	2.16%	6.43%	5.07%
NRG	67 Neutral	$31.66B	24.14	64.19%	1.08%	6.40%	62.12%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
DTE	65 Neutral	$28.47B	20.54	11.64%	3.17%	19.42%	-9.68%
PPL	63 Neutral	$27.19B	25.01	7.65%	2.92%	8.42%	32.48%
VST	63 Neutral	$59.19B	62.40	21.63%	0.47%	42.77%	-47.64%

NRG Energy Corporate Events

NRG Energy Reports Record Earnings and Positive Outlook

NRG Energy Inc’s recent earnings call reflected a positive sentiment, driven by robust performance metrics and strategic growth initiatives. The company reported record quarterly results, significant expansion in data center agreements, and progress on strategic acquisitions, despite facing challenges in specific segments. The overall outlook remains optimistic, with increased financial guidance underscoring confidence in future growth.

NRG Energy Reports Strong Q3 Results and Future Plans

NRG Energy Inc., a leading energy company in North America, provides innovative natural gas, electricity, and smart home solutions to a diverse customer base. The company operates in the energy sector and is known for its customer-focused strategy and commitment to sustainable growth.

NRG Energy Issues $4.275 Billion in Senior Notes

On October 8, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. issued $625 million in senior secured first lien notes due 2030 and 2035, and $3.65 billion in senior notes due 2034 and 2036. These notes, sold via private placement, are intended to fund the acquisition of equity interests in several power companies and to repay existing debt, positioning NRG Energy for strategic growth and financial restructuring.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $202.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

NRG Energy Secures $561.9M Credit Agreement

On September 26, 2025, NRG Cedar Bayou 5 LLC, a subsidiary of NRG Energy, entered into a $561.9 million credit agreement to finance 60% of the costs for a new 721 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Chambers County, Texas. The agreement includes covenants and restrictions, such as maintaining a loan-to-cost ratio under 60% and achieving commercial operation by December 1, 2028, with provisions for prepayment and default events that could impact the company’s financial commitments.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Hold with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

NRG Energy Announces $4.9 Billion Notes Offering

On September 24, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. announced the pricing of its concurrent offerings of senior secured first lien notes and senior unsecured notes, totaling $4.9 billion. The proceeds from these offerings will be used to fund the cash portion of NRG’s acquisition of certain equity interests and to repay existing debt, enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and strategic positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $212.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

NRG Energy Secures Loans for Texas Facilities

On May 12, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement to acquire a portfolio of generation assets, including 13 GW of natural gas-fired facilities and a 6 GW virtual power plant platform from LS Power affiliates. This acquisition is expected to contribute approximately $1,600 million to NRG’s consolidated Adjusted EBITDA, with anticipated revenue enhancements of $800 million within 18 months. Additionally, NRG announced offerings of senior secured and unsecured notes to fund the acquisition and repay existing debt. The company also secured a $216 million loan from the Public Utility Commission of Texas for its T.H. Wharton facility and plans a $562 million loan for its Cedar Bayou facility, both under the Texas Energy Fund.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $212.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

NRG Energy Raises 2025 Financial Guidance Amid Strong Performance

On September 17, 2025, NRG Energy announced an increase in its financial guidance for the year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting strong business performance and favorable weather conditions. The company raised its Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted EPS, Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance, indicating a robust platform and effective execution by its team. This move is expected to create lasting value for customers and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Hold with a $153.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.