NRG Energy (NRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $29.05B
• Dividend Yield: 1.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.63
• Revenue Growth: 2.12%
• EPS Growth: -74.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,637
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): 1.68
• Shares Outstanding: 193,430,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,580,280
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,140,329
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.88
• 1Y Price Target: $178.38
• Price Target Upside: 16.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: $163.00 ▲(6.38% Upside)

NRG Energy's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and strategic acquisitions, which enhance market position and operational capacity. However, high leverage and a relatively high P/E ratio pose risks, while technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Analyst has raised the price target to $180 and reiterated a Buy recommendation for NRG Energy Inc.

Market Position

NRG Energy has been the second-best performing stock in the S&P 500 year-to-date due to the LS Power acquisition.

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition of LS Power's 13 GW generation fleet greatly enhances NRG's power platform at an attractive valuation.

Negative Factors

Guidance Risks

Management's outlook reflects conservatism, suggesting potential for exceeding guidance as opportunities are realized.

Valuation Concerns

NRG trades at an attractive valuation with a ~12% free cash flow yield, which is cheaper compared to its peers.

NRG Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NRG Energy, Inc. is a leading integrated power company in the United States, engaged primarily in producing and selling energy and energy services across multiple states. With a diverse portfolio of power-generating facilities, NRG provides electricity and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company is known for its focus on sustainable and renewable energy solutions, striving to meet the growing demand for cleaner and more efficient energy sources.

How the Company Makes Money

NRG Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and energy-related services. The company's key revenue streams include the generation and retail distribution of power, where it sells electricity directly to consumers and businesses. NRG operates a mix of natural gas, coal, oil, nuclear, and renewable energy facilities, allowing it to maintain a balanced approach to power generation. Additionally, NRG offers energy solutions and services, such as demand response and energy efficiency programs, further contributing to its revenue. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and acquisitions that enhance its market position and operational capabilities.

NRG Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NRG Energy shows strong revenue growth and profitability with robust margins in the TTM period. The high leverage poses a potential risk, but the company effectively converts income to cash, as seen in its strong cash flow metrics. Overall, the financial health appears solid, albeit with some leverage-induced risk.

Income Statement

The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is robust at 21.37%, supported by a strong net profit margin of 4.66%. Revenue growth is evident with a 4.10% increase over the previous annual period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, at 9.17% and 12.70%, respectively, indicating efficient operational performance. However, fluctuations in net income in previous years suggest some volatility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.96, signaling significant leverage, which raises risk concerns. Return on equity is strong at 49.10%, indicating effective use of equity. The equity ratio is relatively low at 11.11%, suggesting limited funding from equity.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has grown by 24.61% in the TTM, indicating strong cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 2.12, showing efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.66 further underscores the company’s ability to convert income into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.63B	28.13B	28.82B	31.54B	26.99B	9.09B
Gross Profit	3.96B	6.03B	2.30B	4.02B	6.51B	2.55B
EBITDA	2.28B	3.50B	1.80B	2.98B	4.32B	1.77B
Net Income	522.00M	1.13B	-202.00M	1.22B	2.19B	510.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	446.00M	24.02B	26.04B	29.15B	23.18B	14.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	446.00M	966.00M	541.00M	430.00M	250.00M	3.90B
Total Debt	11.12B	10.99B	10.97B	8.30B	8.29B	9.04B
Total Liabilities	21.80B	21.54B	23.13B	25.32B	19.58B	13.22B
Stockholders Equity	2.29B	2.48B	2.91B	3.83B	3.60B	1.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.39B	1.82B	-843.00M	-13.00M	224.00M	1.61B
Operating Cash Flow	2.29B	2.31B	-221.00M	360.00M	493.00M	1.84B
Investing Cash Flow	-905.00M	-24.00M	-910.00M	-332.00M	-3.04B	-494.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.82B	-1.75B	-400.00M	1.04B	-272.00M	2.20B

NRG Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 153.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NRG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 153.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 156.77, below the 50-day MA of 155.40, and above the 200-day MA of 115.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NRG.

NRG Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPL	78 Outperform	$26.73B	27.18	6.96%	2.91%	6.62%	17.35%
VST	78 Outperform	$71.12B	32.88	46.29%	0.44%	49.22%	313.49%
TXNM	70 Outperform	$5.99B	29.26	6.36%	2.82%	10.23%	114.67%
NRG	70 Neutral	$29.05B	62.87	17.66%	1.13%	2.12%	-74.13%
EVRG	69 Neutral	$16.81B	19.24	8.55%	3.63%	5.53%	23.00%
POR	69 Neutral	$4.64B	15.56	8.02%	4.77%	9.78%	-6.19%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.68B	17.88	6.85%	3.50%	6.34%	4.32%

NRG Energy Corporate Events

NRG Energy Secures $1 Billion Term Loan Facility

On July 22, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. amended its Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement by entering into a Fifteenth Amendment with Citicorp North America, Inc. and other financial institutions. This amendment introduced a new Incremental Term Loan B Facility worth $1 billion, which is integrated with the company’s existing term loan B facility. The loan, secured by the company’s and its subsidiaries’ assets, carries a maturity date of April 16, 2031, and includes various covenants and conditions typical for such financial arrangements. This move is likely to impact NRG Energy’s financial operations by providing additional liquidity and potentially affecting its leverage and investment strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

NRG Energy Announces Major Acquisition Agreement

On May 12, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. announced a Purchase and Sale Agreement to acquire all equity interests in several companies from affiliates of LS Power Equity Advisors, LLC. The transaction, valued at approximately $12 billion, includes a mix of stock, cash, and debt assumption. The closing is targeted for the first quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions. This acquisition is expected to enhance NRG’s market position and operational capacity, although it is not anticipated to trigger any change of control provisions under the assumed debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

NRG Energy Acquires LS Power Assets for $12 Billion

On May 12, 2025, NRG Energy announced a definitive agreement to acquire a portfolio of natural gas generation facilities and a commercial and industrial virtual power plant platform from LS Power for approximately $12 billion. This acquisition will double NRG’s generation capacity, enhance its ability to serve growing energy demand, and is expected to be immediately accretive to its adjusted earnings per share. The transaction strengthens NRG’s market position in the Northeast and Texas, enhances its credit profile, and supports significant capital returns to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $110.0000 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.