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Nrg Energy (NRG)
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NRG Energy (NRG) AI Stock Analysis

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NRG

NRG Energy

(NYSE:NRG)

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Neutral 59 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$171.00
▼(-4.20% Downside)
NRG Energy's overall stock score reflects a balance of strong strategic initiatives and financial growth against high leverage and valuation concerns. The positive earnings call sentiment and strategic agreements are significant strengths, but financial risks and high P/E ratio weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
NRG's strong revenue growth of 24.2% indicates robust demand and effective market strategies, enhancing long-term business sustainability.
Strategic Agreements
Long-term power agreements with data centers secure stable future revenues and strengthen NRG's position in the growing data center market.
Texas Energy Fund Loan Agreement
The loan agreement for a new power plant enhances NRG's capacity and market presence in Texas, supporting long-term growth and stability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting NRG's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Declining Free Cash Flow
Declining free cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity issues, limiting NRG's ability to fund operations and future investments.
Profitability Margins
Decreasing profitability margins reflect cost management challenges, which could hinder NRG's ability to sustain earnings growth.

NRG Energy (NRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NRG Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNRG Energy, Inc. is a leading integrated energy company based in the United States, focused on providing innovative energy solutions and services across various sectors. The company operates in two primary segments: Generation and Retail, offering a diverse portfolio of energy products, including electricity generation from both conventional and renewable sources, and retail electricity and gas services to residential and commercial customers. NRG is committed to sustainability and the transition to a low-carbon economy, investing in clean energy technologies and solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyNRG Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and gas, with its Generation segment contributing significantly to earnings by operating a diverse fleet of power plants, including natural gas, coal, solar, and wind facilities. Revenue is obtained by selling electricity to wholesale markets and directly to retail customers. In the Retail segment, NRG earns revenue by providing electricity and gas services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers, often through fixed-rate and variable-rate pricing plans. Additionally, the company engages in energy service offerings like demand response and energy efficiency programs. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions, along with a focus on expanding its renewable energy portfolio, also play a crucial role in enhancing revenue streams and market presence.

NRG Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Net Income by Segment
Net Income by Segment
Chart Insights
Data provided by:Main Street Data

NRG Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
NRG Energy's earnings call presented a predominantly positive outlook, with strong financial performance and strategic achievements, such as long-term agreements and expansion in key markets. Despite some challenges related to past asset sales and integration complexities, the overall sentiment is optimistic, supported by record earnings and growth initiatives.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Second Quarter Results
NRG Energy delivered strong second quarter results with an adjusted EPS of $1.73, reflecting an 8% growth year-over-year when normalized for asset sales and retirements. For the first half of 2025, adjusted EPS was $4.42, representing an increase of 48% on the same basis.
Long-term Retail Power Agreements
NRG announced long-term retail power agreements with a data center operator for 295 megawatts, with potential growth to 1 gigawatt, validating their strategy and providing evidence of growing interest in gas-fired power for data centers.
Texas Residential Virtual Power Plant
The Texas Residential Virtual Power Plant exceeded expectations, leading NRG to increase their 2025 target by more than sevenfold, from 20 megawatts to 150 megawatts of curtailable capacity.
Record Smart Home Retention
The Smart Home business achieved record customer retention at over 90% and continues to see consistent customer growth, expansion to its recurring service margins.
Exceptional Financial Performance
NRG recorded the highest adjusted earnings in the company's history through the first half of 2025 with over $2.35 billion of adjusted EBITDA, a year-over-year increase of 40% and 11%, respectively.
Acquisition and Expansion
NRG announced the acquisition of a 13-gigawatt natural gas generation portfolio and a 6-gigawatt commercial and industrial virtual power plant platform from LS Power, expanding their footprint in PJM and ERCOT.
Free Cash Flow Growth
Free cash flow before growth was $1.207 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase driven by adjusted EBITDA growth and the timing of working capital items.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income Decline
Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income for the quarter were down year-over-year, primarily due to the absence of earnings from the Airtron sale in 2024, expiration of the Cottonwood lease, deactivation of Indian River Unit 4, and higher phantom stock expense.
Challenges in Asset Integration
The integration of acquired assets and the pending LS Power acquisition are complex and may affect future performance and timelines.
Company Guidance
During the NRG Energy second quarter earnings call, the company reaffirmed its full-year financial guidance across all key metrics, with current trends at the high end of the projected ranges. The call highlighted the announcement of long-term retail power agreements with a data center operator for 295 megawatts, potentially increasing to 1 gigawatt, emphasizing a strategic focus on gas-fired power for data centers. The T.H. Wharton project is progressing towards a mid-2026 completion, with construction well underway. The Texas Residential Virtual Power Plant's initial results have outperformed expectations, leading to a revised 2025 target of 150 megawatts, more than sevenfold the previous target. Financially, NRG reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.73 for the second quarter, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth when normalized for asset sales and retirements. For the first half of 2025, adjusted EPS was $4.42, marking a 48% increase. The company also reported $909 million in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, with a free cash flow before growth of $914 million.

NRG Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NRG Energy's financial performance is mixed. While revenue growth is strong at 24.2%, profitability margins have declined, with a net profit margin of 1.78%. High leverage is evident with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.86, and cash flow challenges are present with a 38.71% decline in free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
65
Positive
NRG Energy shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a gross profit margin of 17.01%, which is a decline from previous years, indicating pressure on cost management. The net profit margin has also decreased to 1.78%, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. However, the revenue growth rate of 24.2% in the TTM period is a positive indicator of top-line expansion. Despite this, EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased, suggesting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.86 in the TTM period, highlighting significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity has decreased to 20.75% from higher levels in previous years, reflecting reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 9.5%, indicating a low proportion of equity financing relative to total assets, which may pose risks in volatile market conditions.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
NRG Energy's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 38.71% in the TTM period, signaling potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.26, suggesting that operating cash flow is not sufficiently covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.61 indicates moderate cash generation relative to net income, but the declining trend is concerning.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue29.37B28.13B28.82B31.54B26.99B9.09B
Gross Profit5.07B6.03B2.30B4.10B6.51B2.55B
EBITDA2.56B3.50B1.75B2.80B4.18B1.72B
Net Income522.00M1.13B-202.00M1.22B2.19B510.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets24.09B24.02B26.04B29.15B23.18B14.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments180.00M966.00M541.00M430.00M250.00M3.90B
Total Debt11.12B10.99B10.97B8.30B8.29B9.04B
Total Liabilities21.80B21.54B23.13B25.32B19.58B13.22B
Stockholders Equity2.29B2.48B2.91B3.83B3.60B1.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.39B1.83B-819.00M-7.00M224.00M1.61B
Operating Cash Flow2.29B2.31B-221.00M360.00M493.00M1.84B
Investing Cash Flow-905.00M-24.00M-910.00M-332.00M-3.04B-494.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.82B-1.75B-400.00M1.04B-272.00M2.20B

NRG Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price178.50
Price Trends
50DMA
160.84
Positive
100DMA
157.78
Positive
200DMA
134.79
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.82
Negative
RSI
63.98
Neutral
STOCH
91.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 178.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 167.49, above the 50-day MA of 160.84, and above the 200-day MA of 134.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NRG.

NRG Energy Risk Analysis

NRG Energy disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NRG Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

NRG Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$26.46B20.0510.54%3.80%7.64%48.61%
$28.83B20.0912.61%3.14%14.35%3.62%
$25.43B24.959.61%2.23%6.43%5.07%
$67.55B30.2445.85%0.45%46.90%388.66%
$26.98B27.756.96%2.95%6.62%17.35%
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
$34.53B73.1117.66%1.03%2.09%-74.13%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NRG
NRG Energy
178.50
91.41
104.96%
CNP
Centerpoint Energy
38.95
10.41
36.48%
DTE
DTE Energy
138.86
18.78
15.64%
FE
FirstEnergy
45.80
5.35
13.23%
PPL
PPL
36.48
5.24
16.77%
VST
Vistra Energy
199.37
75.96
61.55%

NRG Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Issues $4.275 Billion in Senior Notes
Positive
Oct 8, 2025

On October 8, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. issued $625 million in senior secured first lien notes due 2030 and 2035, and $3.65 billion in senior notes due 2034 and 2036. These notes, sold via private placement, are intended to fund the acquisition of equity interests in several power companies and to repay existing debt, positioning NRG Energy for strategic growth and financial restructuring.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $202.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Secures $561.9M Credit Agreement
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

On September 26, 2025, NRG Cedar Bayou 5 LLC, a subsidiary of NRG Energy, entered into a $561.9 million credit agreement to finance 60% of the costs for a new 721 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Chambers County, Texas. The agreement includes covenants and restrictions, such as maintaining a loan-to-cost ratio under 60% and achieving commercial operation by December 1, 2028, with provisions for prepayment and default events that could impact the company’s financial commitments.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Hold with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Announces $4.9 Billion Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

On September 24, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. announced the pricing of its concurrent offerings of senior secured first lien notes and senior unsecured notes, totaling $4.9 billion. The proceeds from these offerings will be used to fund the cash portion of NRG’s acquisition of certain equity interests and to repay existing debt, enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and strategic positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $212.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Secures Loans for Texas Facilities
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

On May 12, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement to acquire a portfolio of generation assets, including 13 GW of natural gas-fired facilities and a 6 GW virtual power plant platform from LS Power affiliates. This acquisition is expected to contribute approximately $1,600 million to NRG’s consolidated Adjusted EBITDA, with anticipated revenue enhancements of $800 million within 18 months. Additionally, NRG announced offerings of senior secured and unsecured notes to fund the acquisition and repay existing debt. The company also secured a $216 million loan from the Public Utility Commission of Texas for its T.H. Wharton facility and plans a $562 million loan for its Cedar Bayou facility, both under the Texas Energy Fund.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $212.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NRG Energy Raises 2025 Financial Guidance Amid Strong Performance
Positive
Sep 17, 2025

On September 17, 2025, NRG Energy announced an increase in its financial guidance for the year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting strong business performance and favorable weather conditions. The company raised its Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted EPS, Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance, indicating a robust platform and effective execution by its team. This move is expected to create lasting value for customers and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Hold with a $153.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

NRG Energy Faces Uncertainty and Risks in LSP Portfolio Acquisition
Aug 8, 2025

NRG Energy Inc. faces potential risks associated with the acquisition of the LSP Portfolio, as it will not have control over these assets until the transaction is finalized. Unknown or unexpected events, conditions, or actions could negatively impact the assets, liabilities, and operations of the LSP Portfolio before the acquisition closes. Factors such as actions by LS Power, legal or regulatory changes, and economic conditions could adversely affect the value of the assets or increase liabilities, posing a threat to NRG’s future financial health. Additionally, unforeseen liabilities and expenses may arise, which might not be fully addressed during due diligence or reflected in the purchase terms.

NRG Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Aug 7, 2025

NRG Energy, Inc. is a leading energy company that provides innovative natural gas, electricity, and smart home solutions across North America. In its latest earnings report, NRG Energy announced strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, despite a GAAP net loss of $104 million. The company reported an adjusted net income of $339 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $909 million, highlighting robust operational performance and strategic advancements. Key financial metrics included an adjusted EPS of $1.73 and a free cash flow before growth investments of $914 million. NRG Energy also reaffirmed its 2025 financial guidance, projecting adjusted net income between $1,330 million and $1,530 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $3,725 million and $3,975 million. Strategically, the company signed 295 MW of long-term retail agreements for data centers and increased its Texas Residential Virtual Power Plant target. Looking ahead, NRG Energy remains focused on executing its strategic initiatives and capital allocation plans, aiming to enhance shareholder value and maintain strong financial performance.

NRG Energy’s Earnings Call Highlights Robust Growth and Strategic Initiatives
Aug 7, 2025

NRG Energy Inc’s recent earnings call showcased a robust financial performance and strategic growth, particularly in data center agreements and virtual power plants. Despite some challenges related to asset sales and execution timing uncertainties, the overall sentiment was positive, with strong financial outcomes and strategic initiatives taking center stage.

Private Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Secures $1 Billion Term Loan Facility
Neutral
Jul 25, 2025

On July 22, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. amended its Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement by entering into a Fifteenth Amendment with Citicorp North America, Inc. and other financial institutions. This amendment introduced a new Incremental Term Loan B Facility worth $1 billion, which is integrated with the company’s existing term loan B facility. The loan, secured by the company’s and its subsidiaries’ assets, carries a maturity date of April 16, 2031, and includes various covenants and conditions typical for such financial arrangements. This move is likely to impact NRG Energy’s financial operations by providing additional liquidity and potentially affecting its leverage and investment strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025