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NRG Energy
(NYSE:NRG)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$138.00
â–¼(-2.15% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is held down primarily by leveraged financials, thin recent profitability and cash-flow volatility, plus a very high P/E that weakens valuation support. The latest earnings call provides a notable offset with reaffirmed guidance, strong cash generation and a large contracted growth project, while technicals are neutral-to-mixed (short-term support but weaker longer-term trend and negative MACD).
Positive Factors
Robust free cash flow & capital returns
Sustained, sizable free cash flow provides a durable funding source for buybacks, dividends, and organic growth. Consistent repurchases and a $1B annual target signal disciplined capital allocation that can compound shareholder value and support liquidity while financing strategic investments.
Negative Factors
Aggressive leverage
Elevated leverage constrains financial flexibility and amplifies downside risk from commodity, operational, or regulatory shocks. High debt increases interest and refinancing exposure, limits the pace of deleveraging, and could force tradeoffs between growth projects and liability management over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust free cash flow & capital returns
Sustained, sizable free cash flow provides a durable funding source for buybacks, dividends, and organic growth. Consistent repurchases and a $1B annual target signal disciplined capital allocation that can compound shareholder value and support liquidity while financing strategic investments.
Read all positive factors
NRG Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights the profitability of each business segment after removing non-recurring items, providing a clearer view of ongoing operational performance and cash flow potential.
Highlights the profitability of each business segment after removing non-recurring items, providing a clearer view of ongoing operational performance and cash flow potential.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNRG Energy (NRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.33B
Dividend Yield1.39%
Average Volume (3M)2.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)156.2
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth10.82%
EPS Growth-86.75%
CountryUS
Employees16,702
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.82
Shares Outstanding210,986,470
10 Day Avg. Volume2,202,514
30 Day Avg. Volume2,500,878
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.91
Price to Book (P/B)18.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.01
P/FCF Ratio40.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$198.00Price Target Upside40.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)8.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$35.13B
NRG Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States. Its operations are divided into three main geographical divisions: Texas, East, and West. The company plays a crucial ro...
How the Company Makes Money
NRG makes money primarily through two integrated activities: (1) selling energy and energy-related services to end-use customers and (2) producing and selling electricity from its generation assets into wholesale power markets. On the retail side,...
NRG Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and strategic update: substantial EBITDA and free cash flow growth, a clear capital allocation commitment, progress on deleveraging and a material new contracted growth opportunity (1.2 GW BYOP) with attractive return metrics. Near-term challenges include weaker ERCOT pricing and load that pressured Texas results, lower adjusted EPS due to acquisition-related charges, some hedging drag from the acquired portfolio, and a $70 million Virginia RGGI cost. The BYOP project, secured execution capacity and large development pipeline materially enhance long-term earnings visibility and justify continued shareholder returns, while the company retains flexibility to manage funding and partners. Overall, positives materially outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, up $308 million or 34% year-over-year, driven by the acquired LS Power portfolio, higher PJM capacity values and Smart Home growth.
Negative Updates
Texas Segment Weakness
Texas adjusted EBITDA declined by $131 million year-over-year due to lower load and low ERCOT prices; ERCOT Houston around-the-clock average price was $33/MWh in the quarter, down 8% versus the prior year and below the $52/MWh planning assumption.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, up $308 million or 34% year-over-year, driven by the acquired LS Power portfolio, higher PJM capacity values and Smart Home growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NRG reaffirmed its 2026 guidance while reporting solid Q2 results — adjusted EBITDA $1.2B (up $308M or 34% YoY), adjusted net income $315M, adjusted EPS $1.49, and free cash flow before growth $1.025B (up $111M YoY) — and said it remains on track to deliver at least $1B of annual share repurchases (completed ~$932M YTD) and $407M of common dividends for the year (paid $202M H1). The company updated its 2026 capital plan to include $721M of expected data-center new-build spend in 2026 ($681M incremental), with cumulative project investment through 2026 of $0.8B and a total 1.2GW BYOP project capex of $3.2B ($2,700/kW) phased $1.0B in 2027, $1.1B in 2028 and $0.3B in 2029; COD is targeted late 2029 and full operation is expected to add ~$500M annual adjusted EBITDA and ~$375M annual free cash flow before growth. Financial highlights for the project: pretax unlevered IRR of 12–15%, an implied build multiple of ~6x, 95% of project free cash flow supported by availability-based capacity payments (initial term ≥15 years), expected bonus depreciation at COD, and funding via operating cash flow/balance-sheet capacity while maintaining a long-term net leverage target of 3x (deleverage timeline shifted modestly if funded on balance sheet). The company noted near-term headwinds — ERCOT Houston AOTC ~$33/MWh vs 2026 planning assumption $52/MWh and an estimated ~$70M incremental 2026 cost from Virginia rejoining RGGI — but reiterated a long-term outlook that includes 5.4GW of secured turbine/EPC capacity through 2032, a development pipeline >2× that amount, ~2GW of PJM uprates, an illustrative $1.2B 2030 contracted free cash flow opportunity, and a base-business target of 14%+ adjusted EPS CAGR through 2030.NRG Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
43
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 36.75B | 30.71B | 28.13B | 28.82B | 31.54B | 26.99B |
| Gross Profit | 6.03B | 6.71B | 6.03B | 2.30B | 4.10B | 6.51B |
| EBITDA | 4.23B | 3.81B | 3.50B | 1.75B | 2.80B | 4.18B |
| Net Income | 849.00M | 864.00M | 1.13B | -202.00M | 1.22B | 2.19B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 39.94B | 29.14B | 24.02B | 26.04B | 29.15B | 23.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 162.00M | 6.93B | 966.00M | 541.00M | 430.00M | 250.00M |
| Total Debt | 23.47B | 16.77B | 10.99B | 10.97B | 8.30B | 8.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.09B | 27.46B | 21.54B | 23.13B | 25.32B | 19.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.86B | 1.68B | 2.48B | 2.91B | 3.83B | 3.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 348.00M | 766.00M | 1.83B | -819.00M | -7.00M | 224.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.55B | 1.91B | 2.31B | -221.00M | 360.00M | 493.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.27B | -1.64B | -24.00M | -910.00M | -332.00M | -3.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.44B | 3.55B | -1.75B | -400.00M | 1.04B | -272.00M |
NRG Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
141.03
Price Trends
133.71
Negative
141.29
Negative
150.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.20
Positive
38.49
Neutral
22.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 141.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 131.33, above the 50-day MA of 133.71, and below the 200-day MA of 150.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NRG.
NRG Energy Risk Analysis
NRG Energy disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NRG Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NRG Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $49.97B | 24.45 | 43.22% | 0.56% | -24.36% | -6.91% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
62 Neutral | $27.95B | 25.76 | 8.53% | 3.61% | 12.63% | -17.19% | |
61 Neutral | $26.49B | 28.65 | 8.32% | 3.08% | 7.52% | 21.81% | |
60 Neutral | $29.52B | 22.27 | 10.78% | 3.07% | 17.53% | -8.86% | |
59 Neutral | $27.69B | 24.73 | 9.85% | 2.02% | 7.10% | 18.86% | |
50 Neutral | $28.33B | 156.15 | 25.38% | 1.30% | 10.82% | -86.75% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NRG
NRG Energy
118.13
-32.04
-21.34%
CNP
Centerpoint Energy
40.68
2.96
7.85%
DTE
DTE Energy
139.87
4.46
3.29%
FE
FirstEnergy
47.47
5.81
13.96%
PPL
PPL
35.46
0.30
0.84%
VST
Vistra Corp
140.59
-58.44
-29.36%
NRG Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NRG Energy Adds Glenn Wright to Board of Directors
Positive
May 21, 2026
NRG Energy, Inc., a major U.S. retail energy provider and power generator, supplies electricity, natural gas, and smart home solutions to about eight million customers across North America. Supported by approximately 25 GW of generation capacity a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.