Nrg Energy (NRG)
NYSE:NRG
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NRG Energy
(NYSE:NRG)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$170.00
â–²(16.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
NRG’s score is held back primarily by balance-sheet leverage and cash-flow volatility, plus a high P/E that offers limited valuation support. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call and related corporate actions indicate strong operational momentum, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and a credible multi-year growth and capital return plan, while technicals are mixed and not signaling strong near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Expanded generation fleet and scale
The LS Power acquisition immediately scales NRG’s generation base to ~25GW, materially increasing supply-side flexibility and ability to serve large customers. Larger, diversified capacity improves contracting leverage, supports accretive EBITDA, and creates durable revenue optionality across wholesale, retail, and data‑center deals.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thin equity cushion
Materially higher debt and a shrunken equity base increase financial risk and sensitivity to earnings swings. Elevated leverage limits flexibility for opportunistic investments, raises refinancing and interest costs risk during market stress, and reduces the buffer against future operational or commodity shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Expanded generation fleet and scale
The LS Power acquisition immediately scales NRG’s generation base to ~25GW, materially increasing supply-side flexibility and ability to serve large customers. Larger, diversified capacity improves contracting leverage, supports accretive EBITDA, and creates durable revenue optionality across wholesale, retail, and data‑center deals.
Read all positive factors
NRG Energy (NRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.30B
Dividend Yield1.11%
Average Volume (3M)3.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.9
Beta (1Y)1.73
Revenue Growth6.40%
EPS Growth62.12%
CountryUS
Employees15,637
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.03
Shares Outstanding214,205,470
10 Day Avg. Volume2,481,122
30 Day Avg. Volume3,021,200
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.76
Price to Book (P/B)18.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.01
P/FCF Ratio40.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$200.18Price Target Upside36.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)9.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$34.95B
NRG Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated power company in the United States. It operates through Texas, East, and West. The company is involved in the producing, selling, and delivering electricity and related pr...
How the Company Makes Money
NRG generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and related services. Its key revenue streams include wholesale electricity sales to utilities and other power marketers, retail electricity sales to residential, commercial, and indu...
NRG Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights the profitability of each business segment after removing non-recurring items, providing a clearer view of ongoing operational performance and cash flow potential.
Highlights the profitability of each business segment after removing non-recurring items, providing a clearer view of ongoing operational performance and cash flow potential.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNRG Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong, broad-based operational and financial momentum: record 2025 results, a successful LS Power close that materially expands and rebalances generation capacity, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and an ambitious but de-risked multi-year growth and capital return plan. Key challenges include segment-specific EBITDA declines, one-time integration costs, sensitivity to weather and market prices, regulatory timing in PJM, and analyst concern about long-lived gas asset economics versus contract lengths. On balance the positives — meaningful earnings and cash-flow upside, accretive acquisition integration, clear capital allocation, and concrete pathways to serve growing data-center demand — materially outweigh the manageable risks called out on the call.Positive Updates
Record 2025 Financial Performance
Full-year 2025 adjusted EPS of $8.24 (+21% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $4.087 billion (+8% YoY), both above the high end of raised guidance; adjusted net income of $1.606 billion; free cash flow before growth (FCFbG) of $2.21 billion ($11.63 per share), up 7% YoY.
Negative Updates
Segment Weaknesses and One-Time Impacts
East segment adjusted EBITDA declined slightly YoY due to higher regional retail power supply costs, planned maintenance, and retirement of Indian River; West & Other adjusted EBITDA fell driven by absence of Airtron sale earnings and lease expiration at Cottonwood.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record 2025 Financial Performance
Full-year 2025 adjusted EPS of $8.24 (+21% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $4.087 billion (+8% YoY), both above the high end of raised guidance; adjusted net income of $1.606 billion; free cash flow before growth (FCFbG) of $2.21 billion ($11.63 per share), up 7% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NRG reaffirmed its 2026 guidance (reflecting 11 months of LS Power) and rolled forward its long‑term outlook after record 2025 results—adjusted EPS $8.24, adjusted EBITDA $4.087B and free cash flow before growth (FCFbG) $2.21B ($11.63/share), returning $1.6B to shareholders and raising the dividend 8%. For 2026 management reiterated midpoints of adjusted EBITDA $5.575B, adjusted net income $1.9B, adjusted EPS $8.90 and FCFbG $3.05B, with $3.05B cash available for allocation, ~ $1B of planned debt paydown, $123M of one‑time integration costs, at least $1.4B to be returned to shareholders and $310M allocated to growth. The company continues to target ≥14% annual growth in adjusted EPS and FCFbG per share from 2026–2030 (forecasting adjusted EPS >$14 and FCFbG >$22/share by 2030) assuming flat power and capacity prices (PGM capacity cap assumed at $325/MW‑day for the next two auctions), and projects $18.3B total capital available through 2030 with $13.2B of return of capital (≈$11B buybacks + $2.2B dividends) and $2.9B of debt reduction to reach ~3x net debt/EBITDA. Management also highlighted LS Power’s immediate contribution—generation doubled to ~25GW (18 natural gas assets, >75% gas), 445MW of signed long‑term data center PPAs, 5.4GW reserved via GEV/Kiewit plus ~1GW uprate potential—and reiterated the ability to support >6GW of BYOP deals that could add >$2.5B of recurring adjusted EBITDA on up to 20‑year contracts and a target of at least 1GW of signed BYOP in 2026.NRG Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 30.71B | 28.13B | 28.82B | 31.54B | 26.99B |
| Gross Profit | 6.71B | 6.03B | 2.30B | 4.10B | 6.51B |
| EBITDA | 3.81B | 3.50B | 1.75B | 2.80B | 4.18B |
| Net Income | 864.00M | 1.13B | -202.00M | 1.22B | 2.19B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 29.14B | 24.02B | 26.04B | 29.15B | 23.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.93B | 966.00M | 541.00M | 430.00M | 250.00M |
| Total Debt | 16.77B | 10.99B | 10.97B | 8.30B | 8.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.46B | 21.54B | 23.13B | 25.32B | 19.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.68B | 2.48B | 2.91B | 3.83B | 3.60B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 766.00M | 1.83B | -819.00M | -7.00M | 224.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.91B | 2.31B | -221.00M | 360.00M | 493.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.64B | -24.00M | -910.00M | -332.00M | -3.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.55B | -1.75B | -400.00M | 1.04B | -272.00M |
NRG Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
146.14
Price Trends
158.58
Negative
160.36
Negative
158.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.69
Positive
39.06
Neutral
26.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 146.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 156.64, below the 50-day MA of 158.58, and below the 200-day MA of 158.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NRG.
NRG Energy Risk Analysis
NRG Energy disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NRG Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NRG Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $28.20B | 21.95 | 8.16% | 3.13% | 8.42% | 32.48% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $27.64B | 23.80 | 9.53% | 2.33% | 6.43% | 5.07% | |
64 Neutral | $28.91B | 25.33 | 8.04% | 3.94% | 7.64% | 48.61% | |
61 Neutral | $30.00B | 18.26 | 12.16% | 3.45% | 19.42% | -9.68% | |
60 Neutral | $31.30B | 35.94 | 39.65% | 1.11% | 6.40% | 62.12% | |
58 Neutral | $51.32B | 58.07 | 18.91% | 0.56% | 42.77% | -47.64% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NRG
NRG Energy
147.74
53.71
57.12%
CNP
Centerpoint Energy
42.38
6.75
18.95%
DTE
DTE Energy
144.47
12.32
9.33%
FE
FirstEnergy
50.03
11.54
29.98%
PPL
PPL
37.65
3.04
8.78%
VST
Vistra Corp
155.48
37.04
31.27%
NRG Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Launches Major Secondary Offering and Buyback
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 2, 2026, NRG Energy, Inc. and affiliates of LS Power launched a registered secondary public offering in which LS Power-related selling stockholders agreed to sell 14.3 million NRG common shares, with underwriters granted a 30-day option f...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NRG Energy Updates Financials for Recent Acquisitions in 8-K
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
NRG Energy has filed a new Form 8-K to provide updated audited financial statements for several recently acquired entities, including Lightning Power, LLC, Fund III Projects, Gridiron Intermediate Holdings, Linebacker Power Funding, and CCS Power ...
Executive/Board Changes
NRG Energy appoints Sanjay Kapoor as independent director
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 3, 2026, NRG Energy’s board appointed Sanjay Kapoor—former CFO of Spirit AeroSystems and longtime aerospace and defense executive—to serve as an independent director and Audit Committee member, expanding the board to ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
NRG Energy Updates 2026 Guidance After LS Power Deal
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, NRG Energy updated its financial guidance for the year ending December 31, 2026, to reflect the contribution of a portfolio of assets it acquired from LS Power on January 30, 2026, incorporating approximately 11 months of owne...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
NRG Energy Closes Major LS Power Assets Acquisition
Positive
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, NRG Energy completed its acquisition of a portfolio of generation assets and CPower’s commercial and industrial virtual power plant platform from LS Power, adding 18 natural gas-fired plants totaling about 13 GW and effe...
Executive/Board Changes
NRG Energy Announces Executive Leadership and Board Transition
Positive
Jan 7, 2026
On January 6–7, 2026, NRG Energy’s board approved a leadership succession plan under which Robert J. Gaudette, currently Executive Vice President and head of NRG Business and Wholesale Operations, was appointed President effective imme...
Executive/Board Changes
NRG Energy announces immediate resignation of board director
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026
On January 2, 2026, NRG Energy, Inc. announced that director Kevin T. Howell resigned from the company’s Board of Directors, effective immediately, to pursue another opportunity. The company emphasized that Howell’s departure did not s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.