Txnm Energy, Inc. (TXNM)
NYSE:TXNM
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TXNM Energy
(NYSE:TXNM)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$62.00
â–²(5.25% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/02/26
The score is held back primarily by financial quality concerns—especially consistently negative free cash flow and weaker recent revenue/net margin versus 2024—despite solid utility-style operating profitability. Technicals are a clear positive with price trending above major moving averages and supportive momentum. Valuation support comes mainly from the ~2.8% dividend yield, while the provided P/E is not usable, limiting valuation conviction; corporate governance updates are a modest incremental positive.
Positive Factors
Regulated business model
TXNM’s primary earnings are driven by a regulated rate base with costs and returns recovered through approved rates. That structure gives predictable cash flows, durable demand exposure and the ability to recover prudently incurred investments, supporting steady earnings visibility over months.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Persistent negative free cash flow (TTM ≈ -$384M) and weak cash conversion (~0.46x) indicate the business regularly requires external funding to support capex and operations. Over months this limits financial flexibility, raises financing needs and increases exposure to refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated business model
TXNM’s primary earnings are driven by a regulated rate base with costs and returns recovered through approved rates. That structure gives predictable cash flows, durable demand exposure and the ability to recover prudently incurred investments, supporting steady earnings visibility over months.
Read all positive factors
TXNM Energy (TXNM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.58B
Dividend Yield2.8%
Average Volume (3M)1.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)351.4
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth8.46%
EPS Growth-38.43%
CountryUS
Employees1,695
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.38
Shares Outstanding110,707,260
10 Day Avg. Volume1,736,337
30 Day Avg. Volume1,386,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.93
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)2.53
P/FCF Ratio-8.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.00Price Target Upside3.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.37B
TXNM Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TXNM Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electricity and electric services in the United States. It operates through Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) segments. The PNM segment engage...
How the Company Makes Money
TXNM Energy primarily makes money through regulated utility operations. The core revenue stream is retail electricity sales to residential, commercial, and industrial customers within its service areas, where customer bills reflect approved rates ...
TXNM Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with strong growth metrics, successful regulatory approvals, and supportive legislative developments. However, challenges such as transmission pressures, insurance costs, and ongoing regulatory lag concerns were noted.Positive Updates
Ongoing Earnings and Growth Targets
Ongoing earnings for Q1 were $0.19, in line with expectations, affirming guidance for 2025 at $2.74 to $2.84 per share with a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%.
Negative Updates
Transmission and Demand Charge Pressures
Lower transmission margins and higher demand charges from energy storage agreements impacted earnings, though mitigated by deferrals.
Read all updates
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Ongoing Earnings and Growth Targets
Ongoing earnings for Q1 were $0.19, in line with expectations, affirming guidance for 2025 at $2.74 to $2.84 per share with a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the TXNM Energy Q1 2025 Conference Call, the company reaffirmed its guidance for 2025 with an earnings per share (EPS) range of $2.74 to $2.84, alongside a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%. The company reported ongoing earnings of $0.19 per share for the first quarter, highlighting progress in regulatory approvals and capital investments. TXNM Energy's system resiliency plan, approved for $546 million, and the Permian Basin Reliability Study, involving a $750 million investment by 2030, were key highlights. The company noted a 22% increase in TNMP's system peak and a 9.7% growth in demand-based load, largely driven by commercial growth in North and West Texas. The legislative environment was favorable, with new bills passed to support infrastructure development and wildfire prevention. TXNM Energy plans to maintain its five-year capital plan, increasing from $600 million in 2025 to over $1 billion by 2028, to support a 17% rate base growth.TXNM Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.19B | 2.17B | 1.97B | 1.94B | 2.25B | 1.78B |
| Gross Profit | 841.66M | 824.79M | 810.16M | 627.10M | 714.73M | 625.65M |
| EBITDA | 949.09M | 940.66M | 929.21M | 627.71M | 682.44M | 663.84M |
| Net Income | 146.70M | 151.36M | 242.68M | 88.35M | 170.06M | 196.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.14B | 4.35B | 11.55B | 10.59B | 9.63B | 9.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.62M | 1.62M | 4.50M | 2.21M | 4.08M | 1.10M |
| Total Debt | 614.72M | 2.60M | 5.83B | 4.99B | 4.39B | 3.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.61B | 953.99M | 8.95B | 8.18B | 7.37B | 6.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.46B | 3.40B | 2.55B | 2.36B | 2.20B | 2.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -569.59M | -611.43M | -738.88M | -524.64M | -345.27M | -387.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 596.42M | 584.49M | 508.16M | 551.17M | 567.28M | 547.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -1.22B | -1.17B | -1.09B | -950.35M | -952.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 587.01M | 642.52M | 684.35M | 537.10M | 386.04M | 357.56M |
TXNM Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
58.91
Price Trends
58.61
Positive
58.53
Positive
57.37
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
66.37
Neutral
80.38
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TXNM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.09, above the 50-day MA of 58.61, and above the 200-day MA of 57.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TXNM.
TXNM Energy Risk Analysis
TXNM Energy disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TXNM Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TXNM Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.86B | 8.41 | 0.04% | 5.63% | 8.85% | 191.04% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
62 Neutral | $7.80B | 28.93 | 9.42% | 2.72% | -2.03% | 7.94% | |
62 Neutral | $9.76B | 49.27 | 9.47% | 3.82% | 4.11% | -6.40% | |
60 Neutral | $12.09B | 92.85 | 9.34% | 4.15% | 4.84% | 5.77% | |
60 Neutral | $5.59B | 32.39 | 6.25% | 4.38% | 4.28% | -21.65% | |
59 Neutral | $6.58B | 351.37 | 4.35% | 2.80% | 8.46% | -38.43% |
* Utilities Sector Average
TXNM
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TXNM Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
TXNM Energy Announces Q2 2026 Convertible Notes Option
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
TXNM Energy has informed holders of its 5.75% Junior Subordinated Convertible Notes due 2054 that the notes will be convertible at the holders’ option between April 1 and June 30, 2026, at a rate equivalent to a conversion price of about $44...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
TXNM Energy Adopts 2026 Executive Incentive Compensation Plans
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On February 25–26, 2026, TXNM Energy’s board and its Compensation and Human Capital Committee approved a 2026 Officer Annual Incentive Plan that ties named executive officers’ cash bonuses for the 2026 calendar year to achieving ...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TXNM Energy Establishes $125 Million At-the-Market Program
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, TXNM Energy, Inc. entered into a distribution agreement with a syndicate of major banks that allows it to sell up to $125 million of common stock from time to time through at-the-market and other negotiated transactions. The shar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.