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TXNM Energy
(NYSE:TXNM)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
â–²(0.15% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/22/26
TXNM’s score is held back mainly by weak cash flow quality (persistent negative free cash flow) and uneven recent financial performance, with an additional headwind from the regulatory setback that halted the merger process. Technical signals are mixed with limited trend strength, and valuation is relatively rich given the high P/E, partially balanced by a moderate dividend yield and some supportive refinancing and rate-related filings.
Positive Factors
Stable operating profitability
A near-26% operating margin reflects durable regulated utility profitability driven by cost recovery and allowed returns on infrastructure. This margin base supports earnings stability over months as rate-base investments and recovery mechanisms underpin persistent operating cash generation.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Sustained negative free cash flow of roughly -$384M TTM means the company needs continuous external financing to fund capex and operations. Over months this constrains financial flexibility, increases financing costs or dilution risk, and limits ability to self-fund investments or bolster liquidity without new capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable operating profitability
A near-26% operating margin reflects durable regulated utility profitability driven by cost recovery and allowed returns on infrastructure. This margin base supports earnings stability over months as rate-base investments and recovery mechanisms underpin persistent operating cash generation.
Read all positive factors
TXNM Energy (TXNM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.40B
Dividend Yield2.86%
Average Volume (3M)1.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.9
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth8.46%
EPS Growth-38.43%
CountryUS
Employees1,755
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.38
Shares Outstanding110,707,260
10 Day Avg. Volume1,736,337
30 Day Avg. Volume1,386,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.93
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)2.53
P/FCF Ratio-8.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.00Price Target Upside3.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.37B
TXNM Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TXNM Energy, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, supplies electricity and related services across the United States. Its operations are organized into two main divisions: Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Texas-New Mexico Power Co...
How the Company Makes Money
TXNM Energy primarily makes money through regulated utility revenues tied to providing electric service. Its core revenue stream is retail electricity service to residential, commercial, and industrial customers, where charges typically include co...
TXNM Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with strong growth metrics, successful regulatory approvals, and supportive legislative developments. However, challenges such as transmission pressures, insurance costs, and ongoing regulatory lag concerns were noted.Positive Updates
Ongoing Earnings and Growth Targets
Ongoing earnings for Q1 were $0.19, in line with expectations, affirming guidance for 2025 at $2.74 to $2.84 per share with a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%.
Negative Updates
Transmission and Demand Charge Pressures
Lower transmission margins and higher demand charges from energy storage agreements impacted earnings, though mitigated by deferrals.
Read all updates
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Ongoing Earnings and Growth Targets
Ongoing earnings for Q1 were $0.19, in line with expectations, affirming guidance for 2025 at $2.74 to $2.84 per share with a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the TXNM Energy Q1 2025 Conference Call, the company reaffirmed its guidance for 2025 with an earnings per share (EPS) range of $2.74 to $2.84, alongside a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 9%. The company reported ongoing earnings of $0.19 per share for the first quarter, highlighting progress in regulatory approvals and capital investments. TXNM Energy's system resiliency plan, approved for $546 million, and the Permian Basin Reliability Study, involving a $750 million investment by 2030, were key highlights. The company noted a 22% increase in TNMP's system peak and a 9.7% growth in demand-based load, largely driven by commercial growth in North and West Texas. The legislative environment was favorable, with new bills passed to support infrastructure development and wildfire prevention. TXNM Energy plans to maintain its five-year capital plan, increasing from $600 million in 2025 to over $1 billion by 2028, to support a 17% rate base growth.TXNM Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.19B | 2.17B | 1.97B | 1.94B | 2.25B | 1.78B |
| Gross Profit | 841.66M | 824.79M | 810.16M | 627.10M | 714.73M | 625.65M |
| EBITDA | 949.43M | 940.66M | 929.21M | 627.71M | 682.44M | 663.84M |
| Net Income | 146.70M | 151.36M | 242.68M | 88.35M | 170.06M | 196.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.14B | 4.35B | 11.55B | 10.59B | 9.63B | 9.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.62M | 1.62M | 4.50M | 2.21M | 4.08M | 1.10M |
| Total Debt | 614.72M | 2.60M | 5.83B | 4.99B | 4.39B | 3.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.61B | 953.99M | 8.95B | 8.18B | 7.37B | 6.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.46B | 3.40B | 2.55B | 2.36B | 2.20B | 2.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -569.59M | -611.43M | -738.88M | -524.64M | -345.27M | -387.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 596.42M | 584.49M | 508.16M | 551.17M | 567.28M | 547.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -1.22B | -1.17B | -1.09B | -950.35M | -952.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 587.01M | 642.52M | 684.35M | 537.10M | 386.04M | 357.56M |
TXNM Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
58.91
Price Trends
58.01
Positive
58.25
Negative
57.84
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
62.05
Neutral
87.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TXNM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.09, above the 50-day MA of 58.01, and above the 200-day MA of 57.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TXNM.
TXNM Energy Risk Analysis
TXNM Energy disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TXNM Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TXNM Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $5.92B | 11.27 | 8.81% | 5.63% | 8.85% | 191.04% | |
66 Neutral | $10.02B | 21.49 | 9.47% | 3.82% | 4.11% | -6.40% | |
66 Neutral | $12.88B | 19.47 | 9.34% | 4.15% | 4.84% | 5.77% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
60 Neutral | $8.15B | 24.06 | 9.42% | 2.72% | -2.03% | 7.94% | |
60 Neutral | $6.08B | 23.23 | 6.25% | 4.38% | 4.28% | -21.65% | |
53 Neutral | $6.40B | 41.88 | 4.35% | 2.80% | 8.46% | -38.43% |
* Utilities Sector Average
TXNM
TXNM Energy
58.09
2.61
4.69%
IDA
IdaCorp
145.80
26.26
21.97%
OGE
OGE Energy
48.33
4.97
11.46%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
105.65
16.10
17.98%
POR
Portland GE
52.25
13.89
36.21%
ENIC
Enel Chile SA
4.38
1.24
39.58%
TXNM Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
TXNM Energy Secures New Term Loan Financing
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, PNM entered into a $195.0 million term loan agreement with a syndicate of lenders, with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, New York Branch, acting as administrative agent. The loan is effective as of July 21, 2026, and must be r...
Legal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TXNM Energy PIPE Void Halts Blackstone-Backed Merger
Negative
Jul 6, 2026
On May 18, 2025, TXNM Energy agreed to merge with Troy Merger Sub Inc., an affiliate of Blackstone Infrastructure Partners, and to become a wholly owned subsidiary of Troy ParentCo, LLC, alongside a $400 million PIPE investment via 8 million newly...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TXNM Energy Shareholders Back Board, Auditors and Pay
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 10, 2026, TXNM Energy held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors voted on board elections, auditor ratification, and executive compensation matters. Shareholders elected ten director nominees to one-year terms expiring at the...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TXNM Energy Pursues Texas Rate Settlement and Grid Resilience
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 29, 2026, TNMP, TXNM Energy’s Texas utility, filed a comprehensive settlement in its base rate review before the Public Utility Commission of Texas, seeking recovery of a $2.8 billion rate base as of June 30, 2025, preservation of a 9...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.