AES Corporation (AES)
NYSE:AES
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AES
(NYSE:AES)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(0.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by high leverage and consistently negative free cash flow despite improved profitability. Technicals are broadly neutral, while the ~4.9% dividend yield and the announced $15/share take-private transaction provide support.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility cash flows and improving profitability
AES’s utility operations and contracted generation provide stable, rate-regulated and PPA-backed cash flows that underpin recurring revenue. Improved margins versus recent loss years indicate operational recovery, supporting predictable earnings and creditworthiness across a 2–6 month horizon.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
AES’s elevated leverage materially limits financial flexibility, raising refinancing, interest-rate and covenant sensitivities. Even for utilities, a ~7x debt-to-equity capital structure amplifies risk from rate moves or project delays and constrains the company’s ability to self-fund large capital needs over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility cash flows and improving profitability
AES’s utility operations and contracted generation provide stable, rate-regulated and PPA-backed cash flows that underpin recurring revenue. Improved margins versus recent loss years indicate operational recovery, supporting predictable earnings and creditworthiness across a 2–6 month horizon.
Read all positive factors
AES Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAES (AES) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.36B
Dividend Yield5.06%
Average Volume (3M)10.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.2
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth2.76%
EPS Growth5.46%
CountryUS
Employees9,100
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.33
Shares Outstanding713,157,700
10 Day Avg. Volume12,721,398
30 Day Avg. Volume10,766,973
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.83
P/FCF Ratio-6.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.67Price Target Upside15.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.52B
AES Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The AES Corporation operates as a diversified power generation and utility company. It owns and/or operates power plants to generate and sell power to customers, such as utilities, industrial users, and other intermediaries. The company also owns ...
How the Company Makes Money
AES primarily makes money by selling electricity and related services through two main lines of business: (1) Generation and (2) Utilities. In its Generation business, AES earns revenue by producing electricity from its power plants and selling th...
AES Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
AES Corporation's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted significant growth in renewables, strong progress in signing new PPAs, and a robust construction pipeline. Despite challenges in rate cases and the impact of higher interest expenses, the company's reaffirmation of its financial guidance indicates a positive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Growth in Renewables
Renewables EBITDA increased by 46% year-to-date, driven by organic growth and new projects coming online. The installed capacity of the U.S. business is nearly 60% larger compared to two years ago.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Rate Cases
AES Indiana's rate case represents the first use of a forward-looking test year, with partial settlements filed. However, the process of finalizing the rate increases is ongoing.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Growth in Renewables
Renewables EBITDA increased by 46% year-to-date, driven by organic growth and new projects coming online. The installed capacity of the U.S. business is nearly 60% larger compared to two years ago.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During The AES Corporation's Q3 2025 Financial Review Call, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance and long-term growth rates for key financial metrics, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and parent free cash flow. AES highlighted its strong performance and strategic progress, underscored by a 46% year-to-date increase in renewables EBITDA, driven by organic growth and expansion in the U.S. renewables sector. The company expects to sign 4 gigawatts of new power purchase agreements (PPAs) in 2025, with 2.2 gigawatts already signed. AES is on track to complete 3.2 gigawatts of construction projects this year, with 2.9 gigawatts completed so far. The company also reported completing 4.2 gigawatts of projects serving data centers, with an additional 4 gigawatts in its backlog. AES maintains a robust pipeline with 7.5 gigawatts of safe-harbored U.S. projects and plans to safe harbor an additional 3-4 gigawatts by mid-2026, further strengthening its competitive position. The company's U.S. utilities remain focused on providing affordable, reliable power, with significant investments in infrastructure and rate base growth. AES also highlighted its ongoing efforts to maintain investment-grade credit ratings and its commitment to executing its strategic and financial objectives effectively.AES Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.49B | 12.23B | 12.28B | 12.68B | 12.62B | 11.14B |
| Gross Profit | 2.41B | 2.21B | 2.32B | 2.52B | 2.55B | 2.71B |
| EBITDA | 3.76B | 2.94B | 3.67B | 2.53B | 1.94B | 818.00M |
| Net Income | 1.34B | 949.00M | 1.69B | 242.00M | -546.00M | -413.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.82B | 51.77B | 47.41B | 44.80B | 38.36B | 32.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.65B | 2.25B | 1.60B | 1.82B | 2.10B | 1.18B |
| Total Debt | 31.00B | 30.33B | 29.02B | 26.88B | 23.50B | 18.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.46B | 39.84B | 39.70B | 38.81B | 33.86B | 28.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.42B | 6.89B | 3.64B | 2.49B | 2.44B | 2.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.48B | -1.62B | -4.64B | -4.69B | -1.84B | -214.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.96B | 4.31B | 2.75B | 3.03B | 2.71B | 1.90B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.51B | -3.83B | -6.23B | -6.28B | -5.70B | -3.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -800.00M | -403.00M | 3.49B | 3.49B | 3.62B | 741.00M |
AES Technical Analysis
Positive
14.47
Price Trends
14.19
Positive
14.49
Positive
13.87
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Negative
70.19
Negative
93.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.36, above the 50-day MA of 14.19, and above the 200-day MA of 13.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.19 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AES.
AES Risk Analysis
AES disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AES reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AES Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $8.72B | 4.23 | 11.07% | 5.43% | 21.84% | -4.20% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
61 Neutral | $58.98B | 13.81 | 6.53% | 2.91% | 2.23% | -35.44% | |
59 Neutral | $7.40B | 47.54 | 16.88% | 12.98% | 10.16% | -29.63% | |
55 Neutral | $17.84B | -48.28 | 7.74% | 4.92% | 13.02% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $10.36B | 5.17 | 28.87% | 5.06% | 2.76% | 5.46% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AES
AES
14.57
4.94
51.24%
BIP
Brookfield Infrastructure
38.42
7.70
25.06%
CIG
Companhia Energetica Minas Gerais
2.21
0.55
33.45%
SRE
Sempra Energy
91.31
16.75
22.47%
ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
11.72
4.19
55.66%
AES Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AES Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor Slate
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 29, 2026, The AES Corporation held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually, where shareholders elected nine directors, each to serve a one-year term expiring at the 2027 annual meeting, with all nominees receiving substantial ma...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AES Announces Key Leadership Changes in U.S. Operations
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
On April 14, 2026, AES announced that Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer Sherry Kohan will transition to become Chief Financial Officer of the company’s U.S. Utilities business, effective May 7, 2026. On the same date, the bo...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
AES Updates Credit Facilities Ahead Planned Ownership Change
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
On March 13 and March 16, 2026, The AES Corporation amended several key financing agreements with Citibank, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Barclays Bank. The changes affect AES’s main revolving credit facility, a separate credit agr...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
AES agrees to $10.7 billion private equity buyout
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 1, 2026, AES agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT Infrastructure VI, with co-underwriters CalPERS and Qatar Investment Authority, in an all-cash merger valuing AES equity at $10.7 billion, or...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.