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Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
(NYSE:ELPC)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(9.36% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/05/26
The score is driven primarily by strong valuation (very low P/E and high dividend yield) and steady/improving profitability, partially offset by rising leverage and only moderate cash-flow strength. Technical indicators are currently weak, indicating soft near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Integrated value chain
Vertical integration across generation, transmission and distribution provides diversified regulated and contracted revenue streams, operational synergies and internal hedges versus single-segment peers. This structure supports stable cash flows and risk dilution across the electricity value chain over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
The upward debt trajectory materially reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases susceptibility to rate or regulatory shocks. Higher leverage constrains room for adverse tariff cycles or hydrology-driven earnings swings, raising refinancing and covenant risk during multi-year investment programs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated value chain
Vertical integration across generation, transmission and distribution provides diversified regulated and contracted revenue streams, operational synergies and internal hedges versus single-segment peers. This structure supports stable cash flows and risk dilution across the electricity value chain over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR (ELPC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.68B
Dividend Yield4.44%
Average Volume (3M)2.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.0
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth21.84%
EPS Growth-4.20%
CountryUS
Employees4,287
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)14.76
Shares Outstanding745,702,640
10 Day Avg. Volume2,293
30 Day Avg. Volume2,505
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)0.42
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio3.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.59B
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) is a Brazilian enterprise primarily engaged in the generation, transformation, distribution, and sale of electrical power. The company serves a diverse clientele, including industrial, residential, commercia...
How the Company Makes Money
Copel’s earnings are primarily driven by regulated and contracted electricity business lines. It generally makes money through: (1) Electricity distribution: selling electricity to end customers within its distribution concession area, earning reg...
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
COPEL reported a quarter with solid, recurring operating and financial performance: double-digit EBITDA growth, strong recurring net income expansion, improved debt costs, sizeable shareholder returns and clear strategic initiatives (Vision 2035, LRCAP readiness, Novo Mercado migration). These positives were tempered by hydrological pressures (low GSF, higher curtailment), increased energy purchase costs and rising operating expenses in distribution that introduced volatility and one-off effects. Overall, the company demonstrated resilience and disciplined capital allocation while managing short-term headwinds from the power market and operations.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated EBITDA Growth
Consolidated recurring EBITDA of nearly BRL 1.4 billion in Q4 2025, up 16% year-on-year, reflecting operational resilience and balanced contribution across businesses (DISCO ~54%, GenCo+TradeCo ~46%).
Negative Updates
Adverse Hydrology Increasing Costs
Hydrological stress evidenced by a GSF of ~67% and curtailment rising to 34.2% in Q4 2025 (from 15.7% in Q4 2024), driving higher purchased energy costs (+BRL 104.7 million) and a curtailment-related negative impact of about BRL 37 million.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated EBITDA Growth
Consolidated recurring EBITDA of nearly BRL 1.4 billion in Q4 2025, up 16% year-on-year, reflecting operational resilience and balanced contribution across businesses (DISCO ~54%, GenCo+TradeCo ~46%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
COPEL’s guidance emphasized upcoming value drivers and financial targets: it expects the DISCO tariff review in June 2026 to yield a new net remuneration base slightly above BRL 18.5 billion, will bid in the LRCAP on March 18 for Foz do Areia and Segredo (installation licenses and EPC precontracts in place) aiming to capture hydro capacity for 2030/31, and plans to remain net‑long through 2026 (hydro availability ~20–22%) using phased sales to capture elevated short‑term prices (Q4 PLD ~BRL 265/MWh, GSF ~67%). Capital and cash‑return guidance includes a BRL 18 billion multiyear CapEx plan over five years (Vision 2035), having invested BRL 3.4 billion in 2025 (Q4 CapEx BRL 768 million, 84% to distribution; >2 million smart meters installed), maintaining leverage near the optimal 2.7x (total debt BRL 20 billion, net debt BRL 16 billion, avg. debt cost ~87.7% of CDI, avg. amortization 4.9 years), and a shareholder‑friendly dividend stance (BRL 3.8 billion paid in 2025, aggregate payout 144%, ~14% yield, minimum payout frequency twice a year).Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.27B | 25.60B | 22.65B | 21.48B | 20.54B | -13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 6.94B | 5.44B | 4.89B | 4.90B | 4.93B | -30.03B |
| EBITDA | 6.65B | 7.14B | 4.45B | 3.96B | 2.27B | 5.64B |
| Net Income | 2.72B | 2.64B | 2.81B | 2.26B | 1.11B | 4.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 62.93B | 60.41B | 57.38B | 55.82B | 49.70B | 49.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.11B | 3.53B | 4.38B | 5.65B | 2.87B | 3.87B |
| Total Debt | 23.62B | 20.31B | 17.57B | 15.23B | 12.73B | 12.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 39.13B | 37.32B | 31.75B | 31.63B | 28.57B | 27.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.83B | 23.13B | 25.67B | 23.89B | 20.82B | 21.84B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.84B | 2.81B | 603.96M | 663.41M | 681.71M | 564.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.00B | 2.97B | 629.49M | 704.42M | 755.67M | 627.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.64B | -1.72B | -1.06B | -627.66M | -537.32M | 5.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.07B | -2.26B | 149.11M | 539.87M | -372.16M | -534.53M |
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Technical Analysis
Positive
11.43
Price Trends
11.59
Positive
11.92
Negative
10.78
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
51.24
Neutral
73.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ELPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.68, below the 50-day MA of 11.59, and above the 200-day MA of 10.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ELPC.
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Risk Analysis
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $8.68B | 4.03 | 11.03% | 4.55% | 21.84% | -4.20% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $19.23B | 59.66 | 7.74% | 4.33% | 16.38% | 3611.34% | |
64 Neutral | $57.89B | 28.29 | 6.53% | 2.80% | 2.23% | -35.44% | |
59 Neutral | $7.33B | 9.61 | 16.88% | 7.37% | 10.16% | -29.63% | |
58 Neutral | $10.47B | 7.81 | 28.87% | 4.74% | 2.76% | 5.46% |
* Utilities Sector Average
ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
11.72
4.24
56.66%
BIP
Brookfield Infrastructure
40.08
10.01
33.28%
CIG
Companhia Energetica Minas Gerais
2.18
0.53
32.44%
SRE
Sempra Energy
87.73
7.08
8.78%
AES
AES
14.71
1.92
14.98%
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Corporate Events
Copel Updates Dividend Policy to Tighten Payout Rules and Leverage Targets
Jul 17, 2026
On July 15, 2026, Copel approved an updated dividend policy that defines how it will distribute dividends and interest on equity, aiming to make shareholder payouts more transparent and predictable. The policy reinforces principles of sustainabili...
Copel reports 7.2% rise in grid market billing in 2Q26
Jul 17, 2026
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (Copel) is a Brazilian integrated electric utility based in Curitiba, Paraná, operating in power distribution, generation, trading and wind farms. Its primary business is supplying electricity to residential, c...
Copel Board Approves DFESA Stake Divestment to Gerdau and Declines Preemptive Rights
Jun 25, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Copel’s board met via videoconference to review its position in Dona Francisca Energética S.A. (DFESA) and a related opportunity to acquire additional DFESA shares from Centrais Elétricas de Santa Catarina (Celesc...
Copel Wins Aneel Approval for New Distribution Tariffs in 6th Review Cycle
Jun 24, 2026
Copel announced that Brazil’s National Electric Energy Agency approved a new tariff structure for its distribution arm on June 23, 2026, as part of the 6th Periodic Tariff Review cycle. The decision set Copel Distribuição’s n...
Copel to Sell 23% Stake in Dona Francisca Hydroelectric Operator to Gerdau
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2025, Copel agreed to sell its 23.03% stake in Dona Francisca Energética S.A., a shareholder in the consortium that operates the Dona Francisca Hydroelectric Plant, to Gerdau S.A. The deal, based on an enterprise value of R$150 mi...
Copel’s Elejor Unit Renegotiates R$420 Million in Hydropower UBP Obligations
May 26, 2026
On May 25, 2026, Copel reported that its majority-owned special-purpose entity Elejor renegotiated upcoming installments of public utility charges (UBP) tied to the Fundão and Santa Clara hydroelectric plants, under Brazil’s Law 15,235/...
Copel Board Renews Share Buyback and Approves 2025 Reference Form on May 21, 2026
May 22, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Copel’s board of directors approved the company’s 2025 Reference Form for submission to Brazil’s securities regulator, detailing risk factors, corporate structure, sector model, governance and dividend practices ...
Copel Extends and Expands Share Buyback Program Through November 2027
May 22, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Copel’s board of directors approved an amendment and renewal of its share buyback program, originally launched on November 25, 2024, maintaining its aim of acquiring common shares for treasury, cancellation, resale or use in...
Copel Keeps Fitch ‘AAA(bra)’ Rating With Stable Outlook, Underscoring Financial Strength
May 15, 2026
On May 15, 2025, Copel announced that Fitch Ratings reaffirmed its long-term national rating at ‘AAA(bra)’ for the parent company and wholly owned units Copel Geração e Transmissão, Copel Distribuição and Copel...
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Files May 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC
May 6, 2026
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (Copel), a Brazilian integrated electric utility headquartered in Curitiba, Paraná, provides electricity generation, transmission and distribution services across its regional market. The company operates as a ...
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Posts Higher Q1 2026 Earnings and Confirms June Dividend Payout
May 6, 2026
Copel reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2026, with recurring EBITDA rising 16.7% year on year to R$1.75 billion and recurring net income up 10.7% to R$638.9 million, despite lower overall energy sales. The ...
Copel Joins Dow Jones Best-in-Class Index for Global ESG Performance
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Copel announced it has been included in the Dow Jones Best-in-Class Index Global segment, placing it among the top-performing companies worldwide in environmental, social and governance practices. The index, a leading benchmark for...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.