Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR (ELPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.29B
• Dividend Yield: 5.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: 1.96%
• EPS Growth: -35.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,396
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 745,702,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,293
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,505
• PEG Ratio: -0.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.35
• 1Y Price Target: $10.40
• Price Target Upside: -6.98% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.74
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.41B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(16.28% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/02/26

Overall score is driven by strong technical momentum and supportive valuation/income profile. Offsetting this is a middling financial-quality picture, where rising leverage and weak/volatile operating cash conversion temper confidence, while earnings-call guidance remains positive but acknowledges meaningful near-term cost and hydrology pressures.

Positive Factors

Regulated & Contracted Revenue

A large share of revenues comes from regulated distribution tariffs, availability-based transmission payments and long-term generation contracts. This structural mix supports predictable cash flows and tariff-based cost recovery, enabling multi-year investment planning and steady operational cash generation.

Improving Operating Margins & EBITDA Growth

Sustained margin expansion and recurring EBITDA growth across businesses reflect operational improvements, cost discipline and successful portfolio contributions. Stronger margins increase resilience to cyclical headwinds and provide more internal funding for capex and modernization over the medium term.

Disciplined Capital Allocation & Governance Upgrade

Record shareholder distributions and migration to Novo Mercado demonstrate commitment to disciplined returns and higher governance standards. Better governance plus visible payouts tend to broaden institutional interest and secure long-term access to capital for the company’s multiyear investment plan.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

Leverage has increased materially over recent years, reducing balance-sheet flexibility. Higher indebtedness raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity and leaves less room for downside earnings volatility or larger discretionary investments without further debt management actions.

Weak/Volatile Operating Cash Conversion

Operating cash flow has been volatile and converts inconsistently to reported earnings, indicating timing, working-capital or market exposure issues. This undermines the reliability of internally generated funds for capex and dividends and may force recurring reliance on external financing when cash dips.

Hydrology & Energy Purchase Cost Risk

Structural exposure to hydrological cycles and elevated curtailment increases the need for market purchases and curtails generation revenues, creating recurring cost pressure and earnings volatility. This fundamental market risk can persist across operating cycles and complicate medium-term margin stability.

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL engages in the generation, transformation, distribution, and sale of electricity to industrial, residential, commercial, rural, and other customers in Brazil. The company operates through Power Generation and Transmission, Power Distribution, GAS, Power Sale, and Holding and Services segments. It is also involved in the piped natural gas distribution. The company operates hydroelectric, wind, and thermoelectric plants; and owns and operates transmission and distribution lines. It holds concessions to distribute electricity in municipalities in the State of Paraná and in the municipality of Porto União in the State of Santa Catarina. Companhia Paranaense de Energia – COPEL was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Curitiba, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Companhia Paranaense de Energia generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of electricity to a diverse customer base, which includes residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The company's revenue model is structured around regulated tariffs set by government authorities, ensuring a stable income stream from its utility operations. Key revenue streams include charges for energy consumption, connection fees, and ancillary services. Additionally, ELPC benefits from partnerships with various stakeholders, including governmental bodies and private enterprises, which can enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency. The company also invests in renewable energy projects, which can lead to additional revenue through incentives and green energy credits.

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance improved with higher EBIT/EBITDA margins and solid profitability, but the financial profile is held back by rising leverage and uneven cash-generation quality (low/volatile operating cash conversion despite strong reported free cash flow).

Income Statement

Profitability strengthened meaningfully in the latest annual period, with EBIT and EBITDA margins rising to ~17.6% and ~23.3% (from ~13.2% and ~19.6% in 2024), signaling improved operating efficiency. Revenue growth in 2025 was solid (~2.6%), though the prior year was essentially flat (~0.05%), implying a choppy top-line trajectory. Net margin remains healthy (~10.3%), but it declined versus 2024 (~12.4%), and the 2021 results show extreme volatility (including negative revenue/margins), which increases confidence risk in trend consistency.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate for a utility, but it has been rising: debt-to-equity moved up to ~0.89 in 2025 from ~0.68 in 2024 and ~0.64 in 2023, reflecting a heavier debt load. Equity remains sizable (~23.1B) against total assets (~60.4B), providing a reasonable capital base. Returns on equity are steady but not exceptional (~11.4% in 2025), and the upward debt trend is the key balance-sheet risk if rates stay higher or earnings soften.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow was strong in 2025 (~2.81B) and improved sharply versus 2024 (free cash flow growth ~12.5%), with free cash flow closely tracking net income (about ~0.95x), suggesting earnings quality is generally supported by cash generation. However, cash flow volatility is a concern: operating cash flow was very low in 2024 (~0.63B) before rebounding in 2025 (~2.97B). Operating cash flow relative to net income remains weak in both years (about ~0.06x in 2024 and ~0.27x in 2025), indicating profits are not consistently converting into operating cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.60B	22.65B	21.48B	20.54B	-13.33B
Gross Profit	5.44B	4.89B	4.90B	4.93B	-30.03B
EBITDA	5.96B	4.45B	3.96B	2.27B	5.64B
Net Income	2.64B	2.81B	2.26B	1.11B	4.95B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	60.38B	57.38B	55.82B	49.70B	49.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.13B	4.38B	5.65B	2.87B	3.87B
Total Debt	20.53B	17.57B	15.23B	12.73B	12.04B
Total Liabilities	36.35B	31.75B	31.63B	28.57B	27.36B
Stockholders Equity	23.12B	25.67B	23.89B	20.82B	21.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.81B	603.96M	663.41M	681.71M	564.97M
Operating Cash Flow	2.97B	629.49M	704.42M	755.67M	627.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.72B	-1.06B	-627.66M	-537.32M	5.91M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.26B	149.11M	539.87M	-372.16M	-534.53M

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ELPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.32, above the 50-day MA of 10.61, and above the 200-day MA of 8.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ELPC.

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELPC	71 Outperform	$8.29B	3.67	8.00%	5.43%	1.96%	-35.00%
CIG	70 Outperform	$7.27B	10.08	14.29%	12.98%	-0.38%	-53.94%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
BIP	59 Neutral	$16.85B	35.60	9.74%	4.92%	8.14%	―
SRE	58 Neutral	$59.92B	31.37	5.82%	2.91%	9.07%	-28.58%
AES	52 Neutral	$10.05B	10.76	20.35%	5.06%	-1.55%	12.83%

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Corporate Events

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Files February 2026 Form 6-K With U.S. SEC

Companhia Paranaense de Energia (Copel), a Brazilian power utility headquartered in Curitiba, Paraná, focuses on electricity generation, transmission and distribution, and accesses international capital markets through sponsored ADRs. The company plays a key role in meeting regional energy demand and is subject to Brazil’s regulatory and market dynamics.

On February 27, 2026, Copel filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer, formally reporting information for February 2026 and reaffirming its status under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Executive Officer Daniel Pimentel Slaviero, also reiterated that any forward-looking statements about strategy, dividends or financial performance are subject to economic, industry and operational risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from management’s current expectations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.

Copel Posts Strong 4Q25 Results and Completes Novo Mercado Migration

In 2025, Copel delivered recurring EBITDA of R$5.5 billion, up 10.2% year-on-year, and recurring net income of R$2.1 billion, supported by all operating segments and a net operating cash flow of R$3.0 billion. The company ended 2025 with leverage of 2.7x net debt/EBITDA and completed disposals and asset swaps, including the R$1.7 billion divestment of the Baixo Iguaçu hydro plant and decommissioning of smaller hydro and solar assets, as part of a portfolio-optimization strategy.

On December 22, 2025, Copel migrated to B3’s Novo Mercado and began trading solely in common shares (CPLE3), simplifying its capital structure and aligning governance with top Brazilian market standards. The company approved robust shareholder remuneration in 4Q25 and plans R$17.8 billion in investments over the next five years to bolster service quality, efficiency, and innovation, while a non-recurring curtailment compensation of R$273.4 million positively affected 4Q25 EBITDA and underscores regulatory and operational dynamics that can influence results.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.

Copel Names New General Director for Power Generation and Transmission Arm

On February 26, 2026, Copel announced that Rogério Pereira Jorge had taken office as General Director of its subsidiary Copel Geração e Transmissão, which manages the group’s power generation and transmission assets. Jorge brings 27 years of experience in the Brazilian electricity sector, including leadership roles at AES Brasil and Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio, spanning technical, commercial and strategic functions across generation, distribution and trading.

The company thanked board member Moacir Carlos Bertol for his interim service as head of Copel GeT while also serving on Copel’s board. Under Jorge’s leadership, Copel expects its generation and transmission arm to further improve operational efficiency and sustainability, reinforcing its focus on operational excellence and value creation for shareholders within Brazil’s competitive power market.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.

BlackRock Discloses 5.17% Equity Stake in Brazilian Utility Copel

On February 6, 2026, Copel disclosed that BlackRock, Inc., acting as an investment manager for its clients, had increased its stake in the Brazilian utility, reaching a total holding of 154,134,474 common shares as of February 3, 2026, equivalent to approximately 5.17% of Copel’s outstanding common shares, plus a small position in cash-settled derivatives representing about 0.023% of the share base. BlackRock stated that the investment is purely financial, with no intention to influence Copel’s control or management structure and no shareholder agreements in place, signaling growing international institutional interest in the company without immediate implications for its governance arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.

Copel Streamlines Governance Rules After Novo Mercado Listing

On January 28, 2026, Copel’s Board of Directors met in Curitiba and, among other internal matters, acknowledged the earlier resignation of board member Augusto Cezar Tavares Baião, who had submitted his resignation letter on January 7, 2026. During the same meeting, the board unanimously approved a restructuring of its governance rules following the company’s recent listing on B3’s Novo Mercado, simplifying the internal regulations of the Board of Directors and the Statutory Audit Committee and unifying the regulations of the People, Investment and Innovation, and Sustainable Development Committees. These changes are aimed at streamlining Copel’s governance framework in line with higher corporate governance standards, with potential implications for oversight efficiency and clarity of roles for the company’s stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.

Copel Updates Per‑Share Dividend and Interest on Equity Values After Treasury Share Change

On January 8, 2026, Copel announced an adjustment to the per‑share amounts of interest on equity and dividends that had been previously approved by its board of directors on November 18, 2025 and December 10, 2025, respectively. The total distributions remain R$1.1 billion in interest on equity, to be paid on January 19, 2026, and R$1.35 billion in dividends, to be paid by June 30, 2026, but the values per ordinary share were updated due to a new change in the balance of treasury shares as of the December 30, 2025 record date; the interest on equity is also subject to Brazilian withholding tax under applicable law.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.

Copel Board Sees Resignation of Independent Director Augusto Baião

On January 7, 2026, Copel received and accepted the resignation of Augusto Cezar Tavares Baião as an independent member of its Board of Directors, effective the same day, following his decision to take on new professional responsibilities outside the Copel group. Baião, who had served on the board since April 2025, leaves with the company’s public acknowledgment of his contributions, and Copel has stated it will undertake the necessary governance procedures to reconstitute the board in line with its bylaws and applicable regulations, signaling a routine but notable change in its leadership structure for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.

Copel Announces Partial Stake Disposal by GQG Partners

On January 5, 2026, Copel disclosed that asset manager GQG Partners LLC reduced its stake in the company and now holds 70,577,424 common shares, equivalent to about 2.37% of Copel’s total share capital. The move reflects a partial divestment by a significant institutional investor but leaves GQG Partners with a meaningful minority position, with no operational or strategic changes for Copel indicated in the announcement.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.