Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR (ELPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.49B
• Dividend Yield: 5.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.37
• Revenue Growth: 1.96%
• EPS Growth: -35.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,396
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 745,702,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,293
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,505
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.19
• 1Y Price Target: $10.40
• Price Target Upside: -10.27% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.72
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.25B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▼(-5.09% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 12/27/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 12/27/25

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (steady growth, strong operating margins, and strong free-cash-flow growth). Valuation is supportive due to the high dividend yield. Offsetting these positives are mixed-to-weak technical momentum signals and earnings-call risks tied to lower net income and higher financial costs, despite healthy EBITDA and leverage control.

Positive Factors

Regulated, integrated utility model

Copel’s business is rooted in regulated distribution and transmission plus contracted generation, creating predictable, tariff‑linked cash flows. This integrated utility footprint reduces revenue volatility, supports long‑term capex recovery and underpins stable returns through regulatory cycles.

Strong free cash flow generation

Sustained FCF growth and a FCF-to-net-income ratio near 0.94 indicate efficient cash conversion. Robust cash generation funds reinvestment, dividends and deleveraging, providing durable financial flexibility even when accounting profits swing due to market or one‑off effects.

Active investment program with leverage discipline

Large, targeted CapEx (BRL 2.6bn YTD) for asset modernization aligns with a 2026 tariff review and service quality upgrades. Management paired investments with selective divestments to keep net debt/EBITDA around 2.8x, signaling sustained capital discipline and balanced growth funding.

Negative Factors

Rising debt trend

Although current D/E (~0.82) looks manageable, an upward debt trend raises structural interest and refinancing risk. In a higher‑rate environment, persistent balance sheet growth can crowd out discretionary investment or require asset sales, constraining long‑term strategic optionality.

Decline in recurring net income

A large recurring net income drop reduces retained earnings and weakens internal funding capacity. Coupled with rising financial costs noted by management, this trend can pressure dividend sustainability and limit the pace of modernization without higher leverage or further asset disposals.

Operational exposure to curtailment and trading volatility

High curtailment and legacy trading contracts have meaningfully impacted margins and earnings. Such operational volatility from hydrological risk and market trading exposure can persist across seasons, making generation earnings less predictable and increasing reliance on regulated transmission/distribution returns.

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL engages in the generation, transformation, distribution, and sale of electricity to industrial, residential, commercial, rural, and other customers in Brazil. The company operates through Power Generation and Transmission, Power Distribution, GAS, Power Sale, and Holding and Services segments. It is also involved in the piped natural gas distribution. The company operates hydroelectric, wind, and thermoelectric plants; and owns and operates transmission and distribution lines. It holds concessions to distribute electricity in municipalities in the State of Paraná and in the municipality of Porto União in the State of Santa Catarina. Companhia Paranaense de Energia – COPEL was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Curitiba, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Companhia Paranaense de Energia generates revenue primarily through the sale and distribution of electricity to a diverse customer base, which includes residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The company's revenue model is structured around regulated tariffs set by government authorities, ensuring a stable income stream from its utility operations. Key revenue streams include charges for energy consumption, connection fees, and ancillary services. Additionally, ELPC benefits from partnerships with various stakeholders, including governmental bodies and private enterprises, which can enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency. The company also invests in renewable energy projects, which can lead to additional revenue through incentives and green energy credits.

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid overall fundamentals: steady revenue growth (+4.51% TTM), healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins (19.35%/21.95% TTM), and strong free cash flow growth (+23.39% TTM). Main risks are declining gross margin and a rising debt trend despite a currently manageable debt-to-equity (0.82 TTM).

Income Statement

The income statement shows a positive revenue growth rate of 4.51% TTM, indicating a steady increase in sales. The gross profit margin is moderate at 15.83%, and the net profit margin has improved to 8.85% TTM, reflecting better cost management. However, the gross profit margin has decreased compared to previous years, which could indicate rising costs or pricing pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 19.35% and 21.95% TTM, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.82 TTM, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity is 8.53% TTM, which is a moderate return for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 41.88%, suggesting a stable capital structure. However, the increasing trend in debt levels over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement highlights a significant free cash flow growth rate of 23.39% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.94, both suggesting efficient cash conversion. The company has shown resilience in maintaining positive cash flows despite fluctuations in net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	24.95B	22.65B	21.48B	20.54B	-13.33B	18.63B
Gross Profit	4.67B	4.89B	4.90B	4.93B	-30.03B	5.29B
EBITDA	5.48B	4.45B	3.96B	2.27B	5.64B	6.14B
Net Income	2.21B	2.81B	2.26B	1.11B	4.95B	3.90B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	62.05B	57.38B	55.82B	49.70B	49.54B	46.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.97B	4.38B	5.65B	2.87B	3.87B	3.40B
Total Debt	21.24B	17.57B	15.23B	12.73B	12.04B	10.08B
Total Liabilities	36.10B	31.75B	31.63B	28.57B	27.36B	26.53B
Stockholders Equity	25.99B	25.67B	23.89B	20.82B	21.84B	19.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.50B	603.96M	663.41M	681.71M	564.97M	720.12M
Operating Cash Flow	2.63B	629.49M	704.42M	755.67M	627.64M	764.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.98B	-1.06B	-627.66M	-537.32M	5.91M	-323.29M
Financing Cash Flow	-220.39M	149.11M	539.87M	-372.16M	-534.53M	-332.50M

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ELPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.74, above the 50-day MA of 9.88, and above the 200-day MA of 8.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.89 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ELPC.

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CIG	70 Outperform	$7.39B	9.63	13.35%	12.98%	-0.38%	-53.94%
ELPC	67 Neutral	$8.49B	22.34	8.00%	5.43%	1.96%	-35.00%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
AES	65 Neutral	$12.31B	10.52	23.02%	5.06%	-1.55%	12.83%
SRE	63 Neutral	$62.89B	35.01	7.10%	2.91%	9.07%	-28.58%
BIP	59 Neutral	$18.04B	40.00	7.99%	4.92%	8.14%	―

Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Corporate Events

Copel Updates Per‑Share Dividend and Interest on Equity Values After Treasury Share Change

On January 8, 2026, Copel announced an adjustment to the per‑share amounts of interest on equity and dividends that had been previously approved by its board of directors on November 18, 2025 and December 10, 2025, respectively. The total distributions remain R$1.1 billion in interest on equity, to be paid on January 19, 2026, and R$1.35 billion in dividends, to be paid by June 30, 2026, but the values per ordinary share were updated due to a new change in the balance of treasury shares as of the December 30, 2025 record date; the interest on equity is also subject to Brazilian withholding tax under applicable law.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.

Copel Board Sees Resignation of Independent Director Augusto Baião

On January 7, 2026, Copel received and accepted the resignation of Augusto Cezar Tavares Baião as an independent member of its Board of Directors, effective the same day, following his decision to take on new professional responsibilities outside the Copel group. Baião, who had served on the board since April 2025, leaves with the company’s public acknowledgment of his contributions, and Copel has stated it will undertake the necessary governance procedures to reconstitute the board in line with its bylaws and applicable regulations, signaling a routine but notable change in its leadership structure for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.

Copel Announces Partial Stake Disposal by GQG Partners

On January 5, 2026, Copel disclosed that asset manager GQG Partners LLC reduced its stake in the company and now holds 70,577,424 common shares, equivalent to about 2.37% of Copel’s total share capital. The move reflects a partial divestment by a significant institutional investor but leaves GQG Partners with a meaningful minority position, with no operational or strategic changes for Copel indicated in the announcement.

The most recent analyst rating on (ELPC) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR stock, see the ELPC Stock Forecast page.