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Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
(NYSE:ELPC)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$13.00
▲(13.74% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
ELPC’s score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability but moderated by rising leverage and volatile/weaker cash-flow trends. Valuation is a major positive (very low P/E and strong dividend yield), while technical indicators point to neutral-to-soft near-term momentum. The earnings call added support due to strong YoY results and constructive guidance, despite noted curtailment and financing-cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong recurring profitability
Sustained recurring EBITDA and sharply higher recurring net income reflect durable operating leverage across distribution, generation and transmission. Strong margins (~25% EBITDA, ~11% net) underpin cash-generative operations and provide resilience through regulatory cycles, supporting investment and payouts.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
An upward trend in leverage increases interest-rate and refinancing sensitivity for a regulated utility. Higher gross and net debt levels constrain flexibility for further investment or shocks, may raise financing costs over time, and lengthen the timeline to reach the optimal capital structure without curbing payouts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong recurring profitability
Sustained recurring EBITDA and sharply higher recurring net income reflect durable operating leverage across distribution, generation and transmission. Strong margins (~25% EBITDA, ~11% net) underpin cash-generative operations and provide resilience through regulatory cycles, supporting investment and payouts.
Read all positive factors
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR (ELPC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.18B
Dividend Yield4.73%
Average Volume (3M)2.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.3
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth26.97%
EPS Growth11.70%
CountryUS
Employees4,287
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.32
Shares Outstanding745,702,640
10 Day Avg. Volume2,293
30 Day Avg. Volume2,505
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)0.42
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio3.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.57B
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) is a Brazilian enterprise primarily engaged in the generation, transformation, distribution, and sale of electrical power. The company serves a diverse clientele, including industrial, residential, commercia...
How the Company Makes Money
Copel’s earnings are primarily driven by regulated and contracted electricity business lines. It generally makes money through: (1) Electricity distribution: selling electricity to end customers within its distribution concession area, earning reg...
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial quarter: robust EBITDA (+21%) and recurring net income (+42.6%), a materially larger remuneration base after tariff review, sizable CapEx underway for high-return expansion projects, a clear shareholder-remuneration policy (75% minimum payout) and a resourced balance sheet (net debt BRL 19.6bn, 5.2-year duration). Notable headwinds include higher curtailment impacts, increased financial expenses reducing recurring financial income, some cost pressures and market/regulatory uncertainties (auction dynamics, potential rebidding, and investor questions about the leverage convergence timeline). On balance, the positives — scale expansion, strong earnings, disciplined capital allocation and low commercial delinquency — outweigh the operational and market risks highlighted during the call.Positive Updates
Tariff Review and Material Remuneration Base Expansion
Completion of Copel Distribution tariff review resulted in a remuneration base close to BRL 20 billion (more than double the 2021 base), recognized as technically sound and increasing the company's scale, resilience and investment capacity.
Negative Updates
Higher Curtailment and Reduced Modulation Revenue
Curtailment imposed by ONS rose from 15.7% to 23.7% during the quarter, producing a BRL 34.8 million negative impact; reduced modulation also drove a BRL 35.2 million decline in revenue versus prior period.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Tariff Review and Material Remuneration Base Expansion
Completion of Copel Distribution tariff review resulted in a remuneration base close to BRL 20 billion (more than double the 2021 base), recognized as technically sound and increasing the company's scale, resilience and investment capacity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that following a tariff review Copel Distribution’s remuneration base rose to close to BRL 20 billion (more than double 2021), and management reaffirmed disciplined capital allocation while updating its optimal capital structure to a 2.9x net debt/EBITDA target with convergence “up to” 48 months; consolidated recurring EBITDA was BRL 1.6 billion (+21% YoY) (DisCo EBITDA BRL 765.6 million, +34.5%; Jet EBITDA BRL 838 million, +10.1%), recurring net income was BRL 645.1 million (+42.6%), adjusted net debt ended June at BRL 19.6 billion (leverage 2.9x), average nominal cost of debt 12.92% p.a. (≈91.33% of CDI), debt duration 5.2 years, 65.7% of debt indexed to CDI and 31% to IPCA; Q2 CapEx was BRL 957.2 million (≈BRL 318 million to start Foz do Areia and Segredo) within a planned ~BRL 5 billion expansion for those plants, and the company declared BRL 706 million in interest on equity (to be paid Sep‑2026) after paying BRL 1–1.35 billion in dividends in June, while preserving a minimum payout policy of 75% with at least two annual payments; operational metrics/guidance include capturing ~BRL 75 million in market opportunities in Q2 (BRL 52m hydro modulation, BRL 23m submarkets), a 7.2% build‑market growth for DisCo, average GSF ~99.6%, hydropower availability maintained at 20% through 2026 with >40% uncontracted from 2028 to preserve commercial optionality, PMSO at BRL 701.9 million with continued focus on efficiency, and contingency/operational readiness for an NOAA‑flagged 81% probability of strong/very strong El Niño (Aug–Q1 2027) with ample crews, inventories and monitoring to capture short‑term price spikes.Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.96B | 25.60B | 22.65B | 21.48B | 20.54B | -13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 7.58B | 5.44B | 4.89B | 4.90B | 4.93B | -30.03B |
| EBITDA | 7.10B | 7.14B | 4.45B | 3.96B | 2.27B | 5.64B |
| Net Income | 3.19B | 2.64B | 2.81B | 2.26B | 1.11B | 4.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.65B | 60.41B | 57.38B | 55.82B | 49.70B | 49.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.41B | 3.53B | 4.38B | 5.65B | 2.87B | 3.87B |
| Total Debt | 23.57B | 20.31B | 17.57B | 15.23B | 12.73B | 12.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 37.50B | 37.32B | 31.75B | 31.63B | 28.57B | 27.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.13B | 23.13B | 25.67B | 23.89B | 20.82B | 21.84B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.09B | 2.81B | 603.96M | 663.41M | 681.71M | 564.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.27B | 2.97B | 629.49M | 704.42M | 755.67M | 627.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 201.47M | -1.72B | -1.06B | -627.66M | -537.32M | 5.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -341.78M | -2.26B | 149.11M | 539.87M | -372.16M | -534.53M |
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.43
Price Trends
11.45
Negative
11.88
Negative
10.94
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
46.43
Neutral
49.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ELPC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.18, below the 50-day MA of 11.45, and above the 200-day MA of 10.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ELPC.
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Risk Analysis
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $8.18B | 3.27 | 13.16% | 4.55% | 26.97% | 11.70% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $54.20B | 23.89 | 7.14% | 2.80% | 0.88% | -16.61% | |
64 Neutral | $17.94B | 54.28 | 7.56% | 4.33% | 16.38% | 2994.33% | |
63 Neutral | $10.54B | 5.62 | 37.94% | 4.74% | 8.22% | 88.79% | |
62 Neutral | $6.57B | 9.50 | 15.93% | 7.37% | 12.93% | -24.59% |
* Utilities Sector Average
ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR
11.01
3.22
41.32%
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38.56
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1.95
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SRE
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84.57
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6.52%
AES
AES
14.75
1.90
14.79%
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Sponsored ADR Corporate Events
Copel Finalizes R$150 Million Sale of Dona Francisca Hydroelectric Stake to Gerdau
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Copel announced it had completed the sale of its 23.03% stake in Dona Francisca Energética S.A., the company that operates the Dona Francisca hydroelectric power plant, to Gerdau S.A. after securing all necessary corporate ...
Companhia Paranaense de Energia Files August 2026 Form 6-K as Foreign Issuer
Aug 6, 2026
Companhia Paranaense de Energia – Copel, the Brazilian electric utility headquartered in Curitiba, filed its Form 6-K as a foreign private issuer for the month of August 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The report confi...
Copel Posts Strong 2Q26 Earnings, Boosts Investments and Shareholder Payouts
Aug 6, 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Copel delivered strong operational and financial performance, with recurring EBITDA rising 20.8% year on year to R$ 1.61 billion and recurring net income up 42.6% to R$ 645.1 million. These results were supported by ...
Copel Updates Dividend Policy to Tighten Payout Rules and Leverage Targets
Jul 17, 2026
On July 15, 2026, Copel approved an updated dividend policy that defines how it will distribute dividends and interest on equity, aiming to make shareholder payouts more transparent and predictable. The policy reinforces principles of sustainabili...
Copel reports 7.2% rise in grid market billing in 2Q26
Jul 17, 2026
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (Copel) is a Brazilian integrated electric utility based in Curitiba, Paraná, operating in power distribution, generation, trading and wind farms. Its primary business is supplying electricity to residential, c...
Copel Board Approves DFESA Stake Divestment to Gerdau and Declines Preemptive Rights
Jun 25, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Copel’s board met via videoconference to review its position in Dona Francisca Energética S.A. (DFESA) and a related opportunity to acquire additional DFESA shares from Centrais Elétricas de Santa Catarina (Celesc...
Copel Wins Aneel Approval for New Distribution Tariffs in 6th Review Cycle
Jun 24, 2026
Copel announced that Brazil’s National Electric Energy Agency approved a new tariff structure for its distribution arm on June 23, 2026, as part of the 6th Periodic Tariff Review cycle. The decision set Copel Distribuição’s n...
Copel to Sell 23% Stake in Dona Francisca Hydroelectric Operator to Gerdau
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2025, Copel agreed to sell its 23.03% stake in Dona Francisca Energética S.A., a shareholder in the consortium that operates the Dona Francisca Hydroelectric Plant, to Gerdau S.A. The deal, based on an enterprise value of R$150 mi...
Copel’s Elejor Unit Renegotiates R$420 Million in Hydropower UBP Obligations
May 26, 2026
On May 25, 2026, Copel reported that its majority-owned special-purpose entity Elejor renegotiated upcoming installments of public utility charges (UBP) tied to the Fundão and Santa Clara hydroelectric plants, under Brazil’s Law 15,235/...
Copel Board Renews Share Buyback and Approves 2025 Reference Form on May 21, 2026
May 22, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Copel’s board of directors approved the company’s 2025 Reference Form for submission to Brazil’s securities regulator, detailing risk factors, corporate structure, sector model, governance and dividend practices ...
Copel Extends and Expands Share Buyback Program Through November 2027
May 22, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Copel’s board of directors approved an amendment and renewal of its share buyback program, originally launched on November 25, 2024, maintaining its aim of acquiring common shares for treasury, cancellation, resale or use in...
Copel Keeps Fitch ‘AAA(bra)’ Rating With Stable Outlook, Underscoring Financial Strength
May 15, 2026
On May 15, 2025, Copel announced that Fitch Ratings reaffirmed its long-term national rating at ‘AAA(bra)’ for the parent company and wholly owned units Copel Geração e Transmissão, Copel Distribuição and Copel...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.