Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $43.16B
• Dividend Yield: 1.76%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.48M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: -7.93%
• EPS Growth: -35.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.67
• Shares Outstanding: 842,209,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,627,743
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,479,559
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.39K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.25
• 1Y Price Target: $71.36
• Price Target Upside: 39.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.65
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $22.01B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $57.00 ▲(11.22% Upside)

Carrier Global's overall stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. The company's solid financial performance and strategic initiatives are positive, but bearish technical indicators and valuation concerns weigh on the score. The earnings call provided a balanced view of opportunities and risks, with strong growth in certain segments offset by challenges in others.

Positive Factors

Commercial HVAC Growth

Strong growth in the commercial HVAC segment indicates robust demand and market leadership, supporting long-term revenue stability.

Aftermarket Growth

Consistent aftermarket growth enhances revenue stability and customer retention, providing a reliable income stream and competitive edge.

Data Center Segment Expansion

Expansion in the data center segment capitalizes on growing digital infrastructure needs, ensuring future growth and diversification.

Negative Factors

Residential Sector Challenges

Significant decline in residential sales impacts overall revenue, highlighting vulnerability in consumer demand and economic conditions.

Inventory and Supply Chain Issues

Increased inventory levels indicate potential inefficiencies and supply chain challenges, which could affect cash flow and operational flexibility.

Weakness in European Market

Declining sales in Europe reflect market saturation and economic challenges, potentially limiting growth opportunities in this region.

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is a leading global provider of innovative heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, and fire and security solutions. Established as a separate entity from United Technologies Corporation, Carrier focuses on creating sustainable solutions that enhance comfort and efficiency for residential and commercial buildings. The company operates through various segments, including HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security, offering a wide range of products such as air conditioners, chillers, and fire detection systems.

How the Company Makes Money

Carrier generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse product offerings across its three main business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is a major contributor, providing products like residential and commercial air conditioning systems, heating units, and ventilation solutions. The Refrigeration segment includes commercial refrigeration systems and services, catering to food retail and cold chain logistics. The Fire & Security segment offers fire detection systems, security solutions, and monitoring services. Additionally, Carrier benefits from recurring revenue through maintenance services and aftermarket parts. Strategic partnerships with distributors, contractors, and technology firms enhance its market reach and contribute to earnings. The company's commitment to sustainability and energy-efficient solutions also aligns with growing market trends, providing additional avenues for growth.

Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carrier Global demonstrates solid financial performance with strong cash flow generation and efficient cost management. While revenue growth has slowed, the company maintains healthy profit margins and a stable balance sheet. The reduction in net profit margin and return on equity are areas to monitor, but overall, the company is well-positioned in the construction industry.

Income Statement

Carrier Global shows a strong gross profit margin of 27.31% in the TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 18.05% from 24.92% in the previous year, reflecting a decline in profitability. The revenue growth rate is negative at -1.80% TTM, suggesting a contraction in sales. Despite these challenges, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 9.80% and 14.05%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.83 TTM from 0.90 in the previous year, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity is strong at 28.01%, though it has decreased from 39.80% last year, reflecting reduced profitability. The equity ratio stands at 38.97%, suggesting a stable capital structure with a reasonable level of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Carrier Global's free cash flow growth rate is impressive at 104.80% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.20, showing a moderate conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.70, reflecting efficient cash utilization relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.06B	22.49B	18.95B	17.29B	20.61B	17.46B
Gross Profit	6.02B	6.02B	5.17B	4.30B	6.01B	5.13B
EBITDA	3.42B	3.56B	2.70B	2.29B	2.91B	2.41B
Net Income	3.98B	5.60B	1.35B	3.53B	1.66B	1.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.08B	37.40B	32.82B	26.09B	26.17B	25.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.42B	3.97B	9.85B	3.52B	2.99B	3.12B
Total Debt	12.34B	12.71B	14.63B	9.37B	10.22B	11.03B
Total Liabilities	23.24B	23.01B	23.82B	18.01B	19.08B	18.52B
Stockholders Equity	14.51B	14.08B	8.68B	7.76B	6.77B	6.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.13B	44.00M	2.17B	1.43B	1.89B	1.38B
Operating Cash Flow	1.60B	563.00M	2.61B	1.74B	2.24B	1.69B
Investing Cash Flow	2.89B	-2.02B	-660.00M	1.75B	-692.00M	1.11B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.57B	-4.64B	4.61B	-2.93B	-1.56B	-681.00M

Carrier Global Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 51.25
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.62, below the 50-day MA of 58.00, and below the 200-day MA of 65.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.91 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CARR.

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TT	78 Outperform	$90.21B	31.33	37.07%	0.90%	8.58%	20.37%
JCI	70 Outperform	$71.12B	23.13	11.86%	1.32%	-10.19%	100.65%
CSL	69 Neutral	$12.69B	17.06	32.36%	1.38%	0.14%	3.88%
LII	64 Neutral	$16.13B	19.41	92.25%	1.10%	3.77%	12.46%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CARR	63 Neutral	$43.16B	20.87	9.44%	1.76%	-7.93%	-35.00%
AAON	63 Neutral	$7.49B	75.03	12.08%	0.40%	8.77%	-47.50%

Carrier Global Corporate Events

Carrier Global Reports Q3 2025 Earnings Decline

Carrier Global Corporation, a leader in intelligent climate and energy solutions, specializes in providing innovative climate solutions including temperature control and air quality management, serving various industries worldwide. In its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, Carrier Global Corp. announced a 7% decline in net sales compared to the previous year, with organic sales down by 4%. Despite challenges in the residential sector, the company highlighted strong growth in its commercial HVAC segment in the Americas, which grew by 30%. The company also returned $3 billion to shareholders year-to-date, including $2.4 billion in share repurchases, and announced a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization. Key financial metrics for the quarter included a GAAP EPS of $0.47 and an adjusted EPS of $0.67, both reflecting declines from the previous year. Operating profit was down 29% to $539 million, while adjusted operating profit decreased by 21% to $823 million. The company reported a free cash flow of $224 million for the quarter. Looking ahead, Carrier Global Corp. expects full-year 2025 sales to be around $22 billion with an adjusted EPS of approximately $2.65. The company remains optimistic about its strategic position for 2026, focusing on cost reduction actions and a strong data center pipeline, aiming for robust earnings growth in the coming year.

Carrier Global Corp. Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiment Amid Growth and Challenges

Carrier Global Corp. recently held its earnings call, revealing a mixed sentiment among its various business segments. The company showcased robust performance in commercial HVAC and data center sectors, alongside notable growth in aftermarket and heat pump sales. However, these positive outcomes were tempered by challenges in the residential market, particularly in the Americas and Europe, as well as inventory issues and ongoing difficulties in the Chinese market.

Carrier Global Increases Stock Repurchase by $5 Billion

On October 28, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation announced a $5 billion increase to its stock repurchase authorization, raising the total available to approximately $5.8 billion. This move reflects confidence in the company’s strategy and commitment to shareholder value. The company reported a 7% decline in net sales for the third quarter of 2025, with organic sales down 4%. Despite challenges in the residential market, Carrier saw a 30% growth in its Commercial HVAC segment in the Americas. The company expects strong earnings growth in 2026, supported by cost reduction actions and a robust data center pipeline.

The most recent analyst rating on (CARR) stock is a Hold with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carrier Global stock, see the CARR Stock Forecast page.

Carrier Global Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer

On September 3, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation appointed Ms. Beril Yildiz as Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer, effective September 22, 2025. Ms. Yildiz brings extensive experience from her previous roles at International Flavors & Fragrances Inc., Revlon Inc., and Colgate-Palmolive Company. This strategic appointment aims to strengthen Carrier Global’s financial leadership, with Ms. Yildiz set to receive a comprehensive compensation package, including an annual base salary, bonus plan participation, and a sign-on equity grant.

The most recent analyst rating on (CARR) stock is a Buy with a $82.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carrier Global stock, see the CARR Stock Forecast page.