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Carrier Global (CARR)
NYSE:CARR
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Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

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CARR

Carrier Global

(NYSE:CARR)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$75.00
â–²(10.96% Upside)
Carrier Global's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outcomes are tempered by technical challenges and valuation concerns. Noteworthy corporate events further support the company's growth potential, but addressing cash flow and revenue growth issues is crucial for future stability.
Positive Factors
Operational Execution
CARR's solid track record of operational execution should support achievement of targeted margin expansion.
Portfolio Transformation
CARR has sold its legacy industrial businesses and used the proceeds to add European centric residential and light commercial HVAC provider, positioning itself as a pure-play global HVAC-R company.
Research and Development
CARR has raised its R&D spend by approximately 50% post spin, supporting the call for share gain and ability to compete in the Data Center market.
Negative Factors
Market Declines
CARR missed the 6-8% organic target provided at its 2022 Investor Day, generating just around 4% due to market declines in Transport, APAC, and EU heat pumps post Viessmann deal.
Market Skepticism
Shares largely traded in line with broader coverage, signaling market skepticism.
Softer Demand Trends
Viessmann is experiencing softer demand trends, with expectations at the lower end of the guided range.

Carrier Global (CARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment provides products, controls, services, and solutions to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. Its products include air conditioners, heating systems, controls, and aftermarket components, as well as aftermarket repair and maintenance services and building automation solutions. The Refrigeration segment offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services, as well as digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal applications, food retail, and warehouse cooling; and commercial refrigeration solutions, such as refrigerated cabinets, freezers, systems, and controls. The Fire & Security segment provides various residential, commercial, and industrial technologies, including fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide detection; portable fire extinguishers; fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its other fire and security service offerings comprise audit, design, installation, and system integration, as well as aftermarket maintenance and repair and monitoring services. The company offers its products under the Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, and Supra; Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, and Riello; and Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarrier Global generates revenue primarily through the sale of HVAC systems, which cater to both residential and commercial customers. The company also earns significant income from its refrigeration segment, offering products that serve the food retail and transport industries. Additionally, Carrier's fire and security business provides integrated solutions that contribute to its revenue streams. The company benefits from a strong network of distributors and dealers, as well as strategic partnerships with building and construction firms, which help drive sales and expand its market reach. Carrier also offers aftermarket services and solutions, such as maintenance and repair, which create recurring revenue opportunities.

Carrier Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much each business segment contributes to total sales, indicating the company's diversification and potential growth areas.
Chart InsightsCarrier Global's HVAC segment is experiencing robust growth, driven by strategic initiatives and strong demand in Climate Solutions and Transportation, as highlighted in the latest earnings call. Despite challenges in the light commercial segment and Asia, the company is mitigating tariff impacts through pricing strategies. The Refrigeration and Fire and Security segments show mixed performance, with notable declines in recent quarters. Carrier's increased EPS guidance and strong cash flow generation underscore its resilience and strategic focus, positioning it well for continued growth in 2025.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Carrier Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Carrier's Q2 2025 performance was characterized by strong organic growth, particularly in commercial HVAC and data centers, alongside significant increases in adjusted EPS and operating margins. However, challenges in the European market, weaknesses in China, and issues in the residential segment present notable concerns. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with strategic initiatives in place to address the lowlights.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Organic Growth
Carrier achieved 6% organic growth in Q2 2025 with notable growth in commercial HVAC in the Americas at 45%, and total company aftermarket growth of 13%.
Increased Adjusted EPS and Operating Margins
Adjusted EPS increased by 26% year-over-year, and adjusted operating margins expanded by 130 basis points.
Significant Free Cash Flow and Buybacks
First half free cash flow was approximately $1 billion, with a planned $3 billion in buybacks for the year.
Data Center Revenue Growth
Carrier is on track to double data center revenues to $1 billion this year, with a strong backlog for future growth.
Resilient Commercial HVAC Performance
Global commercial HVAC sales are projected to reach $6.5 billion in 2025, up close to 20% year-over-year.
Successful Product Introductions
New products, including a large capacity air cooled chiller and integrated air-to-water heat pump, are driving market expansion.
Negative Updates
Challenges in European Market
The European market has been more challenging than expected, with flattish sales in Q2 and weaker performance in Germany.
Weakness in China and Parts of Southeast Asia
Organic sales in Asia Pacific were down 4%, with significant declines in residential China and parts of Southeast Asia.
Decline in Residential Volume
U.S. residential sales were below expectations, with volumes down mid-single digits due to a late start to the cooling season.
High Inventory Levels in Residential Segment
Inventory levels in the residential segment are higher than desired, impacting sales projections for the second half of the year.
Company Guidance
During Carrier's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported several impressive metrics and provided guidance on future performance. Carrier achieved a 6% organic growth rate in Q2, highlighted by a remarkable 45% growth in commercial HVAC in the Americas and 13% total company aftermarket growth. The adjusted operating margins expanded by 130 basis points, and the adjusted EPS increased by 26%. The company generated a robust free cash flow of about $1 billion in the first half, with a target of $3 billion in share buybacks for the year. Carrier aims to sustain a 6% to 8% organic growth rate through strategic product differentiation and double-digit aftermarket expansion. For the full year, the company expects mid-single-digit organic sales growth, close to 20% adjusted EPS growth, and plans to maintain free cash flow between $2.4 and $2.6 billion. The company remains confident in delivering strong results in the second half of 2025 and beyond.

Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carrier Global demonstrates strong profitability with high profit margins and a solid balance sheet, highlighted by an impressive return on equity. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow conversion present potential liquidity concerns that need addressing.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The income statement indicates a stable performance with a slight decline in total revenue from the previous year. The company exhibits strong gross and net profit margins of 27.76% and 19.52% respectively for the TTM, reflecting effective cost management. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative, indicating challenges in sales expansion. Notably, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 13.66% and 18.64%, suggesting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity stands strong at 29.20%, demonstrating effective use of shareholder equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is healthy at 39.00%, reflecting a strong equity base. However, the high level of total debt remains a potential risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The cash flow statement reflects a concerning decline in free cash flow growth, which is negative, highlighting challenges in generating free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.14 indicates limited conversion of net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also low at 0.04, suggesting potential liquidity challenges. Despite this, the company has managed to maintain positive operating cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue22.46B22.49B18.95B17.29B20.61B17.46B
Gross Profit6.27B6.02B5.17B4.30B6.01B5.13B
EBITDA3.62B3.56B2.70B2.29B2.91B2.41B
Net Income4.02B5.60B1.35B3.53B1.66B1.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets38.49B37.40B32.82B26.09B26.17B25.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.80B3.97B9.85B3.52B2.99B3.12B
Total Debt11.89B12.71B14.63B9.37B10.22B11.03B
Total Liabilities23.48B23.01B23.82B18.01B19.08B18.52B
Stockholders Equity14.71B14.08B8.68B7.76B6.77B6.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow542.00M44.00M2.17B1.43B1.89B1.38B
Operating Cash Flow995.00M563.00M2.61B1.74B2.24B1.69B
Investing Cash Flow4.17B-2.02B-660.00M1.75B-692.00M1.11B
Financing Cash Flow-6.52B-4.64B4.61B-2.93B-1.56B-681.00M

Carrier Global Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price67.59
Price Trends
50DMA
71.35
Negative
100DMA
69.25
Negative
200DMA
68.83
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.43
Negative
RSI
47.28
Neutral
STOCH
57.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 67.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.45, below the 50-day MA of 71.35, and below the 200-day MA of 68.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CARR.

Carrier Global Risk Analysis

Carrier Global disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carrier Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$19.94B24.39112.94%0.84%7.92%29.72%
73
Outperform
$94.83B33.8238.89%0.84%10.20%24.57%
71
Outperform
$16.80B21.8431.34%1.05%1.37%5.96%
70
Neutral
$70.97B31.6012.52%1.35%-13.10%40.62%
68
Neutral
$56.58B26.3310.79%1.28%-5.24%-33.37%
65
Neutral
$6.90B57.7415.52%0.42%5.39%-34.28%
65
Neutral
$2.63B15.3515.18%3.65%0.27%30.08%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CARR
Carrier Global
67.59
-2.64
-3.76%
AAON
Aaon
84.75
-8.60
-9.21%
CSL
Carlisle Companies
390.32
-18.92
-4.62%
TT
Trane Technologies
424.19
72.50
20.61%
JCI
Johnson Controls
109.27
39.43
56.46%
LII
Lennox International
567.00
-3.17
-0.56%

Carrier Global Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Carrier Global Recasts Financials Amid Strategic Shift
Neutral
Jul 29, 2025

Carrier Global Corporation announced a recast of its financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024, to align with changes in its reportable segments, reflecting a strategic transformation of its business portfolio. The revised segments, which include Climate Solutions Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa, and Transportation, aim to enhance management reporting and transparency for investors. This move is part of Carrier’s broader strategy to focus on intelligent climate and energy solutions, following the acquisition of Viessmann’s climate solutions business and the sale of its Access Solutions business to Honeywell.

The most recent analyst rating on (CARR) stock is a Buy with a $96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carrier Global stock, see the CARR Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carrier Global Repurchases 4.2 Million Shares for $300M
Positive
Jun 5, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation repurchased over 4.2 million shares of its common stock from Viessmann Traeger HoldCo GmbH for $300 million, marking a strategic move under its existing share repurchase authorization. This transaction, involving a slight discount from the market price, reflects a diversification strategy by Maximilian Viessmann, who remains a significant shareholder and board member, expressing confidence in Carrier’s leadership and growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (CARR) stock is a Hold with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carrier Global stock, see the CARR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025