Carrier Global Corp. (CARR)
NYSE:CARR
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Carrier Global
(NYSE:CARR)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$74.00
â–²(20.68% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but uneven financial performance (strong recent revenue momentum and improved leverage, but lower profitability versus 2024 and softer/volatile free cash flow). Technicals add support via an upward trend and positive momentum signals, while valuation is a notable constraint given the higher P/E and modest yield. Earnings call tone is constructive on guidance and order momentum, tempered by near-term margin and demand headwinds.
Positive Factors
Aftermarket & Connectivity Traction
A growing installed base of connected devices and expanding Lynx subscriptions create durable recurring revenue, higher lifetime customer value, and greater service stickiness. This supports margin resilience and predictable aftermarket cash flows over multiple years as subscriptions scale.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Volatility
Material FCF decline and volatility reduce the company's capacity to consistently fund capex, innovation, or shareholder returns without increasing leverage. Persistent swings complicate capital allocation and heighten the sensitivity of operations to working-capital and seasonal fluctuations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Aftermarket & Connectivity Traction
A growing installed base of connected devices and expanding Lynx subscriptions create durable recurring revenue, higher lifetime customer value, and greater service stickiness. This supports margin resilience and predictable aftermarket cash flows over multiple years as subscriptions scale.
Read all positive factors
Carrier Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Reveals profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarrier Global (CARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.92B
Dividend Yield1.65%
Average Volume (3M)6.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)44.6
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth-5.07%
EPS Growth-65.16%
CountryUS
Employees48,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.56
Shares Outstanding830,580,440
10 Day Avg. Volume7,432,003
30 Day Avg. Volume6,952,275
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)3.21
Price to Sales (P/S)2.04
P/FCF Ratio26.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$75.15Price Target Upside22.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$22.26B
Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are struct...
How the Company Makes Money
Carrier primarily makes money by selling equipment and related services across its core end markets. A major revenue stream comes from HVAC: selling residential systems (e.g., furnaces, air conditioners, heat pumps) and commercial systems (e.g., c...
Carrier Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call contained multiple strong operating and commercial highlights — especially exceptional order momentum (notably in data centers and CHVAC), product and system innovation, aftermarket growth, and better-than-expected Q1 performance versus guidance — and management reaffirmed full-year revenue and EPS targets while implementing pricing to offset input-cost pressures. Offsetting these positives were meaningful short-cycle weaknesses (notably CSA residential and China RLC), segment margin pressures from promotions and under-absorption, tariff-driven cost inflation, and near-term guidance reflecting some softness in Q2. On balance the call emphasized durable growth drivers and actionable mitigation (pricing, productivity, supply-chain actions) that outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Transportation / Container Strength
CST Container business grew nearly 40% in the quarter and management expects margin expansion for CST (~+50 bps) for the year.
Negative Updates
Residential Sales Weakness (CSA)
CSA organic sales down ~3% for the segment; CSA Residential sales down ~12% year-over-year driven by distributor-to-dealer movement down ~8% and field inventories down ~35% YoY, causing under-absorption and margin headwinds.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transportation / Container Strength
CST Container business grew nearly 40% in the quarter and management expects margin expansion for CST (~+50 bps) for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carrier reaffirmed its 2026 guidance: roughly $22 billion of revenue with organic growth flat to low single digits (includes a roughly $250 million YoY headwind from the Riello exit), and expects to realize an additional 2 points of pricing globally (about $400–$450 million, ~75% related to Section 232 tariffs) to offset input‑cost pressure; adjusted EPS is reaffirmed at approximately $2.80 (up high single digits vs. 2025) with no change to full‑year operating profit, free cash flow or share‑repurchase plans. Segment guidance is largely unchanged (CSA and CSE margins steady), with CSAME margins expected to decline ~50 bps and CST to expand ~50 bps. For Q2 the company expects revenue just below $6.0 billion (including about $100 million of Riello), operating margin of ~17%, a ~24% tax rate, adjusted EPS of about $0.80 and a few hundred million dollars of free cash generation; the current data‑center backlog fully covers the $1.5 billion of planned data‑center sales for 2026.Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.87B | 21.75B | 22.49B | 18.95B | 17.29B | 20.61B |
| Gross Profit | 5.42B | 5.62B | 5.98B | 5.16B | 4.30B | 5.98B |
| EBITDA | 3.16B | 3.53B | 4.09B | 2.80B | 4.45B | 2.69B |
| Net Income | 1.31B | 1.48B | 5.60B | 1.35B | 3.53B | 1.66B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 37.19B | 37.19B | 37.40B | 32.82B | 26.09B | 26.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.37B | 1.55B | 3.97B | 9.85B | 3.52B | 2.99B |
| Total Debt | 12.57B | 12.67B | 12.71B | 14.63B | 9.37B | 10.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.39B | 23.06B | 23.01B | 23.82B | 18.01B | 19.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.45B | 13.80B | 14.08B | 8.68B | 7.76B | 6.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.66B | 1.70B | 44.00M | 2.17B | 1.43B | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.08B | 2.09B | 563.00M | 2.61B | 1.74B | 2.24B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -350.00M | -343.00M | -2.02B | -660.00M | 1.75B | -692.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.07B | -4.67B | -4.64B | 4.61B | -2.93B | -1.56B |
Carrier Global Technical Analysis
Positive
61.32
Price Trends
63.88
Positive
61.95
Positive
59.22
Positive
Market Momentum
1.61
Negative
60.57
Neutral
70.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 61.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.88, below the 50-day MA of 63.88, and above the 200-day MA of 59.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CARR.
Carrier Global Risk Analysis
Carrier Global disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carrier Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carrier Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $101.72B | 35.28 | 34.71% | 0.95% | 6.36% | 7.42% | |
71 Outperform | $87.86B | 24.92 | 25.46% | 1.27% | -0.60% | 49.11% | |
69 Neutral | $57.92B | 44.56 | 9.28% | 1.65% | -5.07% | -65.16% | |
67 Neutral | $17.99B | 22.76 | 72.05% | 0.96% | -2.03% | -1.09% | |
66 Neutral | $13.80B | 19.34 | 38.36% | 1.28% | -0.53% | -1.29% | |
65 Neutral | $10.54B | 88.04 | 13.40% | 0.53% | 28.27% | -25.82% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CARR
Carrier Global
69.91
-0.10
-0.14%
AAON
Aaon
127.19
53.79
73.29%
CSL
Carlisle Companies
343.77
-10.68
-3.01%
TT
Trane Technologies
458.25
35.58
8.42%
JCI
Johnson Controls
144.96
41.90
40.65%
LII
Lennox International
512.15
-26.20
-4.87%
Carrier Global Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Carrier Global Shareowners Back Directors and Executive Pay
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
Carrier Global held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareowners on April 15, 2026, with a quorum of 768,844,537 shares represented out of 835,433,325 outstanding as of the February 19 record date. All nominated directors, including Chief Executive Davi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.