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Carrier Global
(NYSE:CARR)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$68.00
â–¼(-1.28% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (positive profitability, improved leverage, and strong recent free cash flow) and a constructive earnings-call backdrop with reaffirmed guidance and exceptional order/backlog momentum in key areas like data centers. Offsetting these positives are weak near-term technical positioning (below key short-term moving averages) and a stretched valuation (high P/E with a modest dividend yield), which increases sensitivity to execution and near-term margin pressures.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Carrier's TTM cash generation (operating cash flow ~$2.3B, FCF ~$1.85B) and FCF roughly 80% of net income support durable capital allocation: reinvestment, share repurchases, dividends, and debt reduction. While cash conversion has been volatile historically, current FCF provides lasting flexibility to fund strategic initiatives or weather cyclicality.
Negative Factors
Multi‑year revenue softness/volatility
Reported multi‑year revenue decline indicates uneven top‑line performance and susceptibility to end‑market cycles. Persistent or recurring negative growth trends reduce operating leverage and make long‑term margin expansion harder to sustain absent sustained market share gains or new revenue streams.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Carrier's TTM cash generation (operating cash flow ~$2.3B, FCF ~$1.85B) and FCF roughly 80% of net income support durable capital allocation: reinvestment, share repurchases, dividends, and debt reduction. While cash conversion has been volatile historically, current FCF provides lasting flexibility to fund strategic initiatives or weather cyclicality.
Read all positive factors
Carrier Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Reveals profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarrier Global (CARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$50.95B
Dividend Yield1.53%
Average Volume (3M)5.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.5
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth-1.58%
EPS Growth-43.59%
CountryUS
Employees47,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.45
Shares Outstanding824,325,100
10 Day Avg. Volume5,692,138
30 Day Avg. Volume5,275,967
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.42
Price to Book (P/B)3.21
Price to Sales (P/S)2.04
P/FCF Ratio26.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$77.33Price Target Upside12.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)2.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.08B
Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are struct...
How the Company Makes Money
Carrier makes money primarily by selling HVAC, refrigeration, and building-controls equipment and by providing recurring services tied to its installed base. Key revenue streams include: (1) Equipment sales: revenue from manufacturing and selling ...
Carrier Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call contained multiple strong operating and commercial highlights — especially exceptional order momentum (notably in data centers and CHVAC), product and system innovation, aftermarket growth, and better-than-expected Q1 performance versus guidance — and management reaffirmed full-year revenue and EPS targets while implementing pricing to offset input-cost pressures. Offsetting these positives were meaningful short-cycle weaknesses (notably CSA residential and China RLC), segment margin pressures from promotions and under-absorption, tariff-driven cost inflation, and near-term guidance reflecting some softness in Q2. On balance the call emphasized durable growth drivers and actionable mitigation (pricing, productivity, supply-chain actions) that outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Order Momentum
Total company orders in Q1 rose 11%; global CHVAC orders up 35%; CSA commercial HVAC orders up over 80%; global data center orders surged over 500%.
Negative Updates
Residential Sales Weakness (CSA)
CSA organic sales down ~3% for the segment; CSA Residential sales down ~12% year-over-year driven by distributor-to-dealer movement down ~8% and field inventories down ~35% YoY, causing under-absorption and margin headwinds.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Order Momentum
Total company orders in Q1 rose 11%; global CHVAC orders up 35%; CSA commercial HVAC orders up over 80%; global data center orders surged over 500%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carrier reaffirmed its 2026 guidance: roughly $22 billion of revenue with organic growth flat to low single digits (includes a roughly $250 million YoY headwind from the Riello exit), and expects to realize an additional 2 points of pricing globally (about $400–$450 million, ~75% related to Section 232 tariffs) to offset input‑cost pressure; adjusted EPS is reaffirmed at approximately $2.80 (up high single digits vs. 2025) with no change to full‑year operating profit, free cash flow or share‑repurchase plans. Segment guidance is largely unchanged (CSA and CSE margins steady), with CSAME margins expected to decline ~50 bps and CST to expand ~50 bps. For Q2 the company expects revenue just below $6.0 billion (including about $100 million of Riello), operating margin of ~17%, a ~24% tax rate, adjusted EPS of about $0.80 and a few hundred million dollars of free cash generation; the current data‑center backlog fully covers the $1.5 billion of planned data‑center sales for 2026.Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.11B | 21.75B | 22.49B | 18.95B | 17.29B | 20.61B |
| Gross Profit | 5.38B | 5.62B | 5.98B | 5.16B | 4.30B | 5.98B |
| EBITDA | 2.75B | 3.53B | 4.09B | 2.80B | 4.45B | 2.69B |
| Net Income | 1.22B | 1.48B | 5.60B | 1.35B | 3.53B | 1.66B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 37.37B | 37.19B | 37.40B | 32.82B | 26.09B | 26.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.34B | 1.55B | 3.97B | 9.85B | 3.52B | 2.99B |
| Total Debt | 12.39B | 12.67B | 12.71B | 14.63B | 9.37B | 10.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.90B | 23.06B | 23.01B | 23.82B | 18.01B | 19.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.15B | 13.80B | 14.08B | 8.68B | 7.76B | 6.77B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.90B | 1.70B | 44.00M | 2.17B | 1.43B | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.36B | 2.09B | 563.00M | 2.61B | 1.74B | 2.24B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -465.00M | -343.00M | -2.02B | -660.00M | 1.75B | -692.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.28B | -4.67B | -4.64B | 4.61B | -2.93B | -1.56B |
Carrier Global Technical Analysis
Negative
68.88
Price Trends
67.98
Negative
64.21
Negative
60.45
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.21
Positive
50.40
Neutral
56.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 68.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.02, above the 50-day MA of 67.98, and above the 200-day MA of 60.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CARR.
Carrier Global Risk Analysis
Carrier Global disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carrier Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carrier Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $88.84B | 25.42 | 26.94% | 1.12% | 6.81% | 70.90% | |
69 Neutral | $100.10B | 34.31 | 34.49% | 0.83% | 7.04% | 4.58% | |
65 Neutral | $50.95B | 42.53 | 8.89% | 1.37% | -1.58% | -43.59% | |
65 Neutral | $14.29B | 20.54 | 41.06% | 1.31% | 1.90% | -2.79% | |
65 Neutral | $14.37B | 18.75 | 65.30% | 0.97% | -2.11% | -5.59% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $7.30B | 61.42 | 13.40% | 0.39% | 28.27% | -25.82% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CARR
Carrier Global
61.81
-3.72
-5.68%
AAON
Aaon
89.06
7.36
9.01%
CSL
Carlisle Companies
359.92
6.14
1.74%
TT
Trane Technologies
454.95
24.99
5.81%
JCI
Johnson Controls
146.66
41.54
39.52%
LII
Lennox International
415.88
-178.35
-30.01%
Carrier Global Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Carrier Global appoints AI-focused executive to board
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
On July 24, 2026, Carrier Global Corporation appointed Neil Barua, President and CEO of PTC Inc., to its Board of Directors, effective immediately, with his term running until the 2027 Annual Meeting of Shareowners. Barua will serve on the Technol...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.