Carrier Global (CARR)
NYSE:CARR
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Carrier Global
(NYSE:CARR)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$61.00
â–²(4.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (healthy margins and strong recent free cash flow) and supportive 2026 guidance/capital returns. These positives are tempered by high business volatility, near-term end-market weakness highlighted on the call, and technically overextended momentum; valuation is also on the expensive side relative to the modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent multi‑billion operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for buybacks, debt reduction and reinvestment. Strong cash conversion in the trailing period supports capital returns and strategic spending even if revenue swings, increasing financial optionality over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Material revenue and earnings volatility
Pronounced year‑to‑year swings in top line and cash flow reduce earnings predictability and raise execution risk. Volatility makes margin and free cash flow less reliable for multiquarter planning, increasing sensitivity to macro cycles and complicating sustained deleveraging or investment pacing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent multi‑billion operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for buybacks, debt reduction and reinvestment. Strong cash conversion in the trailing period supports capital returns and strategic spending even if revenue swings, increasing financial optionality over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Carrier Global (CARR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.70B
Dividend Yield1.65%
Average Volume (3M)6.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.7
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth-7.93%
EPS Growth-35.00%
CountryUS
Employees48,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryConstruction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding835,433,350
10 Day Avg. Volume5,642,849
30 Day Avg. Volume6,416,758
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)3.21
Price to Sales (P/S)2.04
P/FCF Ratio26.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$72.25Price Target Upside23.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.93B
Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Carrier primarily makes money by selling equipment and related lifecycle services across its operating segments. (1) HVAC equipment sales: Revenue is generated from manufacturing and selling residential HVAC products (e.g., furnaces, air condition...
Carrier Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much each business segment contributes to total sales, indicating the company's diversification and potential growth areas.
Shows how much each business segment contributes to total sales, indicating the company's diversification and potential growth areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCarrier Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights clear strategic progress: strong cash generation and capital returns, notable strength and rapid expansion in data centers, sustained double-digit growth in commercial HVAC and aftermarket, and significant productivity/cost actions expected to drive margin improvement. However, these positives are offset in the near term by substantial weakness in short-cycle residential and light commercial markets—particularly in the U.S. and China—which drove steep Q4 volume and profit declines, elevated decremental margins, and inventory/manufacturing tradeoffs. Guidance for 2026 is cautiously constructive (EPS and operating profit growth alongside continued investments), but it depends on macro stability and recovery in short-cycle markets.Positive Updates
Q4 and Full-Year Cash Generation & Capital Returns
Q4 reported sales of $4.8B, adjusted operating profit of $455M and adjusted EPS of $0.34. Q4 free cash flow ~ $900M and full-year free cash flow ~ $2.1B. Distributed $3.7B to shareholders in 2025 via buybacks and dividends.
Negative Updates
Severe CSA Residential and Light Commercial Weakness
CSA segment had a difficult quarter: organic sales down ~17% in Q4. CSA residential sales were down ~40% (volume down >40%) and light commercial sales declined ~20%. CSA segment operating margin fell to just under ~9%, a decline of ~10 percentage points year-over-year, driven by lower sales and severe under-absorption as manufacturing output was less than half of prior-year Q4.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q4 and Full-Year Cash Generation & Capital Returns
Q4 reported sales of $4.8B, adjusted operating profit of $455M and adjusted EPS of $0.34. Q4 free cash flow ~ $900M and full-year free cash flow ~ $2.1B. Distributed $3.7B to shareholders in 2025 via buybacks and dividends.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carrier guided 2026 reported sales of about $22 billion with flat to low‑mid single‑digit organic growth (including a roughly $350 million revenue headwind from the Riello exit); the company expects adjusted operating profit of about $3.4 billion, adjusted EPS of ~ $2.80 (up high‑single digits, including roughly $0.15 from higher operating profit), free cash flow of ~ $2.0 billion (second‑half weighted), and ~$1.5 billion of share repurchases. Management expects ~40% of the portfolio (commercial HVAC and aftermarket) to grow double‑digits, data centers to be up ~50% (after growing to ~ $1.0 billion in 2025), price realization in the low single digits, productivity/cost actions contributing roughly $400 million (with over $100 million of savings flowing into 2026) offsetting a volume/mix headwind (~$100 million), and a commodity headwind of about $60 million (around 50% blocked). They forecast Q1 revenue of ~ $5.0 billion with organic revenue down high‑single digits (CSA residential down >20%), Q1 operating margin ~10%, Q1 adjusted EPS ~ $0.50 (benefiting from a discrete 0% tax item), and a modest free cash flow use of a few hundred million.Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 21.75B | 22.49B | 18.95B | 17.29B | 20.61B |
| Gross Profit | 5.63B | 6.02B | 5.17B | 4.30B | 6.01B |
| EBITDA | 2.79B | 3.56B | 2.70B | 2.29B | 2.91B |
| Net Income | 1.49B | 5.60B | 1.35B | 3.53B | 1.66B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 37.19B | 37.40B | 32.82B | 26.09B | 26.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.55B | 3.97B | 9.85B | 3.52B | 2.99B |
| Total Debt | 12.67B | 12.71B | 14.63B | 9.37B | 10.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.06B | 23.01B | 23.82B | 18.01B | 19.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.80B | 14.08B | 8.68B | 7.76B | 6.77B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.70B | 44.00M | 2.17B | 1.43B | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.09B | 563.00M | 2.61B | 1.74B | 2.24B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -343.00M | -2.02B | -660.00M | 1.75B | -692.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.67B | -4.64B | 4.61B | -2.93B | -1.56B |
Carrier Global Technical Analysis
Positive
58.29
Price Trends
60.13
Negative
56.99
Positive
60.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.97
Negative
52.30
Neutral
46.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.80, below the 50-day MA of 60.13, and below the 200-day MA of 60.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CARR.
Carrier Global Risk Analysis
Carrier Global disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carrier Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carrier Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $99.48B | 36.79 | 36.17% | 0.95% | 8.58% | 20.37% | |
77 Outperform | $14.06B | 18.48 | 36.69% | 1.28% | 0.14% | 3.88% | |
70 Outperform | $85.08B | 36.04 | 23.52% | 1.27% | -10.19% | 100.65% | |
69 Neutral | $48.70B | 29.70 | 10.50% | 1.65% | -7.93% | -35.00% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $16.64B | 21.56 | 78.89% | 0.96% | 3.77% | 12.46% | |
60 Neutral | $7.12B | 57.78 | 12.63% | 0.53% | 8.77% | -47.50% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CARR
Carrier Global
58.29
0.08
0.13%
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-12.03%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.