Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $52.12B
• Dividend Yield: 1.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.55M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: -5.24%
• EPS Growth: -33.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.92
• Shares Outstanding: 851,022,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,675,631
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,550,024
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.40
• 1Y Price Target: $78.75
• Price Target Upside: 29.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $68.00 ▲(11.99% Upside)

Carrier Global's overall score reflects strong earnings call performance and strategic growth initiatives, tempered by technical weaknesses and valuation concerns. The company's robust profitability and strategic focus on high-growth segments are significant strengths, while challenges in cash flow and market momentum present risks.

Positive Factors

Organic Growth

Consistent organic growth, particularly in commercial HVAC, indicates strong market demand and effective strategic positioning, supporting long-term revenue expansion.

Product Innovation

Innovative product introductions enhance Carrier's competitive edge and market penetration, fostering sustainable growth in evolving HVAC markets.

Financial Leadership

Strengthening financial leadership with experienced personnel supports improved financial management and strategic execution, crucial for long-term stability.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Negative revenue growth highlights potential market saturation or competitive pressures, which could hinder future sales and profitability.

Cash Flow Conversion

Low cash flow conversion rates suggest liquidity challenges, impacting the company's ability to reinvest in growth and manage debt effectively.

European Market Challenges

Persistent challenges in the European market could limit growth opportunities and strain resources, affecting overall performance and strategic goals.

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment provides products, controls, services, and solutions to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. Its products include air conditioners, heating systems, controls, and aftermarket components, as well as aftermarket repair and maintenance services and building automation solutions. The Refrigeration segment offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services, as well as digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal applications, food retail, and warehouse cooling; and commercial refrigeration solutions, such as refrigerated cabinets, freezers, systems, and controls. The Fire & Security segment provides various residential, commercial, and industrial technologies, including fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide detection; portable fire extinguishers; fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its other fire and security service offerings comprise audit, design, installation, and system integration, as well as aftermarket maintenance and repair and monitoring services. The company offers its products under the Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, and Supra; Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, and Riello; and Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Carrier generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse product offerings across its three main business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is a major contributor, providing products like residential and commercial air conditioning systems, heating units, and ventilation solutions. The Refrigeration segment includes commercial refrigeration systems and services, catering to food retail and cold chain logistics. The Fire & Security segment offers fire detection systems, security solutions, and monitoring services. Additionally, Carrier benefits from recurring revenue through maintenance services and aftermarket parts. Strategic partnerships with distributors, contractors, and technology firms enhance its market reach and contribute to earnings. The company's commitment to sustainability and energy-efficient solutions also aligns with growing market trends, providing additional avenues for growth.

Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carrier Global demonstrates strong profitability with high profit margins and a solid balance sheet, highlighted by an impressive return on equity. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow conversion present potential liquidity concerns that need addressing.

Income Statement

The income statement indicates a stable performance with a slight decline in total revenue from the previous year. The company exhibits strong gross and net profit margins of 27.76% and 19.52% respectively for the TTM, reflecting effective cost management. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative, indicating challenges in sales expansion. Notably, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 13.66% and 18.64%, suggesting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity stands strong at 29.20%, demonstrating effective use of shareholder equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is healthy at 39.00%, reflecting a strong equity base. However, the high level of total debt remains a potential risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reflects a concerning decline in free cash flow growth, which is negative, highlighting challenges in generating free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.14 indicates limited conversion of net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also low at 0.04, suggesting potential liquidity challenges. Despite this, the company has managed to maintain positive operating cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.46B	22.49B	18.95B	17.29B	20.61B	17.46B
Gross Profit	6.27B	6.02B	5.17B	4.30B	6.01B	5.13B
EBITDA	3.62B	3.56B	2.70B	2.29B	2.91B	2.41B
Net Income	4.02B	5.60B	1.35B	3.53B	1.66B	1.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.49B	37.40B	32.82B	26.09B	26.17B	25.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.80B	3.97B	9.85B	3.52B	2.99B	3.12B
Total Debt	11.89B	12.71B	14.63B	9.37B	10.22B	11.03B
Total Liabilities	23.48B	23.01B	23.82B	18.01B	19.08B	18.52B
Stockholders Equity	14.71B	14.08B	8.68B	7.76B	6.77B	6.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	542.00M	44.00M	2.17B	1.43B	1.89B	1.38B
Operating Cash Flow	995.00M	563.00M	2.61B	1.74B	2.24B	1.69B
Investing Cash Flow	4.17B	-2.02B	-660.00M	1.75B	-692.00M	1.11B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.52B	-4.64B	4.61B	-2.93B	-1.56B	-681.00M

Carrier Global Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 60.72
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 60.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.23, below the 50-day MA of 68.69, and below the 200-day MA of 67.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CARR.

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LII	73 Outperform	19.18B	23.53	92.68%	0.87%	7.92%	29.72%
JCI	71 Outperform	70.29B	31.77	14.09%	1.38%	-13.10%	40.62%
TT	70 Outperform	88.77B	31.74	36.46%	0.92%	10.20%	24.57%
CARR	68 Neutral	$52.12B	24.44	10.79%	1.42%	-5.24%	-33.37%
CSL	66 Neutral	14.28B	18.91	38.02%	1.23%	1.37%	5.96%
AAON	64 Neutral	6.56B	57.26	14.66%	0.47%	5.39%	-34.28%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Carrier Global Corporate Events

Carrier Global Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer

On September 3, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation appointed Ms. Beril Yildiz as Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer, effective September 22, 2025. Ms. Yildiz brings extensive experience from her previous roles at International Flavors & Fragrances Inc., Revlon Inc., and Colgate-Palmolive Company. This strategic appointment aims to strengthen Carrier Global’s financial leadership, with Ms. Yildiz set to receive a comprehensive compensation package, including an annual base salary, bonus plan participation, and a sign-on equity grant.

Carrier Global Recasts Financials Amid Strategic Shift

Carrier Global Corporation announced a recast of its financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024, to align with changes in its reportable segments, reflecting a strategic transformation of its business portfolio. The revised segments, which include Climate Solutions Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa, and Transportation, aim to enhance management reporting and transparency for investors. This move is part of Carrier’s broader strategy to focus on intelligent climate and energy solutions, following the acquisition of Viessmann’s climate solutions business and the sale of its Access Solutions business to Honeywell.

Carrier Global Repurchases 4.2 Million Shares for $300M

On June 5, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation repurchased over 4.2 million shares of its common stock from Viessmann Traeger HoldCo GmbH for $300 million, marking a strategic move under its existing share repurchase authorization. This transaction, involving a slight discount from the market price, reflects a diversification strategy by Maximilian Viessmann, who remains a significant shareholder and board member, expressing confidence in Carrier’s leadership and growth prospects.