Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $50.18B
• Dividend Yield: 1.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: -7.93%
• EPS Growth: -35.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.67
• Shares Outstanding: 842,209,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,471,714
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,248,657
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.39K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.77
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.84
• 1Y Price Target: $69.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $65.00 ▲(9.10% Upside)

Carrier Global's overall stock score reflects a mix of solid financial performance and strategic initiatives, tempered by technical weaknesses and valuation concerns. The company's strong cash flow and operational efficiency are significant strengths, while the bearish technical indicators and moderately high valuation present challenges. The earnings call provided a balanced view of opportunities and risks, with notable growth in key segments offset by residential market challenges.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

Very strong FCF growth provides durable financial flexibility: funds capex, share repurchases, M&A, and deleveraging. High cash conversion supports investment in aftermarket and commercial channels, cushioning cyclical equipment revenue swings over the next several quarters.

Recurring Aftermarket Revenue

Sustained double-digit aftermarket growth signals a growing installed base and recurring, higher-margin revenue. Services, parts, and maintenance reduce top-line cyclicality from new equipment, supporting margin stability and predictable cash flows over 2–6 months and beyond.

Commercial & Data Center Momentum

Rapid data center and commercial HVAC expansion taps durable secular demand for efficient cooling and controls. Diversification away from residential toward higher-growth, project-driven commercial and data center markets strengthens long-term revenue mix and reduces exposure to housing cycles.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Trend

Negative TTM revenue growth indicates top-line pressure that can erode operating leverage and limit reinvestment. Persistent or widening revenue declines would challenge margin sustainability and make meeting medium-term targets harder without structural demand or portfolio actions.

Residential Demand Weakness

A steep drop in residential volumes is a material structural headwind given Carrier's exposure to that market. Large volume declines hurt aftermarket upside and create spare-parts overhangs; recovery may be slow if housing and replacement cycles remain weak.

Inventory Build and Working Capital Risk

A $500M inventory increase, concentrated in residential, ties up cash and raises risk of markdowns or slower turns. Elevated inventories amplify working-capital needs, reduce FCF conversion durability, and can pressure near-term margins if product demand recovery lags expectations.

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment provides products, controls, services, and solutions to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. Its products include air conditioners, heating systems, controls, and aftermarket components, as well as aftermarket repair and maintenance services and building automation solutions. The Refrigeration segment offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services, as well as digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal applications, food retail, and warehouse cooling; and commercial refrigeration solutions, such as refrigerated cabinets, freezers, systems, and controls. The Fire & Security segment provides various residential, commercial, and industrial technologies, including fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide detection; portable fire extinguishers; fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its other fire and security service offerings comprise audit, design, installation, and system integration, as well as aftermarket maintenance and repair and monitoring services. The company offers its products under the Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, and Supra; Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, and Riello; and Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Carrier generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse product offerings across its three main business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is a major contributor, providing products like residential and commercial air conditioning systems, heating units, and ventilation solutions. The Refrigeration segment includes commercial refrigeration systems and services, catering to food retail and cold chain logistics. The Fire & Security segment offers fire detection systems, security solutions, and monitoring services. Additionally, Carrier benefits from recurring revenue through maintenance services and aftermarket parts. Strategic partnerships with distributors, contractors, and technology firms enhance its market reach and contribute to earnings. The company's commitment to sustainability and energy-efficient solutions also aligns with growing market trends, providing additional avenues for growth.

Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carrier Global demonstrates solid financial performance with strong cash flow generation and efficient cost management. While revenue growth has slowed, the company maintains healthy profit margins and a stable balance sheet. The reduction in net profit margin and return on equity are areas to monitor, but overall, the company is well-positioned in the construction industry.

Income Statement

Carrier Global shows a strong gross profit margin of 27.31% in the TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 18.05% from 24.92% in the previous year, reflecting a decline in profitability. The revenue growth rate is negative at -1.80% TTM, suggesting a contraction in sales. Despite these challenges, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 9.80% and 14.05%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.83 TTM from 0.90 in the previous year, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity is strong at 28.01%, though it has decreased from 39.80% last year, reflecting reduced profitability. The equity ratio stands at 38.97%, suggesting a stable capital structure with a reasonable level of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Carrier Global's free cash flow growth rate is impressive at 104.80% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.20, showing a moderate conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.70, reflecting efficient cash utilization relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.06B	22.49B	18.95B	17.29B	20.61B	17.46B
Gross Profit	6.02B	6.02B	5.17B	4.30B	6.01B	5.13B
EBITDA	3.42B	3.56B	2.70B	2.29B	2.91B	2.41B
Net Income	3.98B	5.60B	1.35B	3.53B	1.66B	1.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.08B	37.40B	32.82B	26.09B	26.17B	25.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.42B	3.97B	9.85B	3.52B	2.99B	3.12B
Total Debt	12.34B	12.71B	14.63B	9.37B	10.22B	11.03B
Total Liabilities	23.24B	23.01B	23.82B	18.01B	19.08B	18.52B
Stockholders Equity	14.51B	14.08B	8.68B	7.76B	6.77B	6.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.13B	44.00M	2.17B	1.43B	1.89B	1.38B
Operating Cash Flow	1.60B	563.00M	2.61B	1.74B	2.24B	1.69B
Investing Cash Flow	2.89B	-2.02B	-660.00M	1.75B	-692.00M	1.11B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.57B	-4.64B	4.61B	-2.93B	-1.56B	-681.00M

Carrier Global Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 59.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 59.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.91, above the 50-day MA of 54.18, and below the 200-day MA of 62.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CARR.

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TT	79 Outperform	$93.26B	32.41	36.81%	0.95%	8.58%	20.37%
CSL	70 Outperform	$14.24B	19.29	32.36%	1.28%	0.14%	3.88%
JCI	70 Outperform	$73.00B	43.56	11.86%	1.27%	-10.19%	100.65%
LII	67 Neutral	$17.36B	21.72	78.10%	0.96%	3.77%	12.46%
CARR	66 Neutral	$50.18B	23.91	9.44%	1.65%	-7.93%	-35.00%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AAON	61 Neutral	$7.43B	75.59	12.08%	0.53%	8.77%	-47.50%