Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $60.85B
• Dividend Yield: 1.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.64M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.36
• Revenue Growth: 0.14%
• EPS Growth: 202.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 92
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.65
• Shares Outstanding: 857,309,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,877,008
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,637,234
• PEG Ratio: 3.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 116.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.56
• 1Y Price Target: $83.21
• Price Target Upside: 17.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

Carrier Global's stock is supported by strong financial performance and positive corporate restructuring, positioning it well for growth. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to potential overbought conditions, and the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. While the earnings call was largely positive, challenges in specific segments and regions remain. Overall, the stock's strengths in profitability and strategic initiatives are notable, but investors should be cautious of valuation and market momentum factors.

Positive Factors

Organic Growth

CARR is focused on accelerating organic growth, which will drive the equity in the coming years.

Research and Development

CARR has raised its R&D spend by approximately 50% post spin, supporting the call for share gain and ability to compete in the Data Center market.

Negative Factors

Demand Trends

Viessmann is experiencing softer demand trends, with expectations at the lower end of the guided range.

Market Skepticism

Shares largely traded in line with broader coverage, signaling market skepticism.

Organic Growth Targets

CARR missed the 6-8% organic target provided at its 2022 Investor Day, generating just around 4% due to market declines in Transport, APAC, and EU heat pumps post Viessmann deal.

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is a leading provider of innovative heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies. The company operates across multiple sectors, including residential, commercial, and industrial markets. Its core products and services include HVAC systems, refrigeration equipment, and fire and security solutions, aimed at enhancing building performance and ensuring safety and comfort.

How the Company Makes Money

Carrier Global generates revenue primarily through the sale of HVAC systems, which cater to both residential and commercial customers. The company also earns significant income from its refrigeration segment, offering products that serve the food retail and transport industries. Additionally, Carrier's fire and security business provides integrated solutions that contribute to its revenue streams. The company benefits from a strong network of distributors and dealers, as well as strategic partnerships with building and construction firms, which help drive sales and expand its market reach. Carrier also offers aftermarket services and solutions, such as maintenance and repair, which create recurring revenue opportunities.

Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carrier Global demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, strong profitability margins, and a balanced capital structure. While the income statement reflects robust profitability and growth, the balance sheet indicates manageable leverage and strong returns on equity. Cash flow poses some challenges with lower ratios, though recent improvements are promising. Overall, the company is well-positioned for growth, with some caution advised regarding debt levels.

Income Statement

Carrier Global exhibits strong income statement metrics, highlighted by a consistent growth in revenue and net income over the years. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at approximately 27.6%, and the Net Profit Margin is an impressive 26.01%, indicating robust profitability. The company's revenue growth from 2024 to 2025 was 2.46%, showing stable growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 12.58% and 17.35% respectively, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Carrier Global is stable with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.81, which is reasonable for the industry. The Return on Equity (ROE) for the TTM is high at 42.21%, reflecting effective use of equity. The Equity Ratio stands at 38.96%, which suggests a balanced capital structure. However, the total debt is significant, which could pose risks if interest rates rise.

Cash Flow

Carrier Global's cash flow statements reveal a moderate position. The TTM Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 0.09, indicating modest cash conversion from profits. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 0.17, showing that operational cash generation is below net income levels. However, there is a significant improvement in free cash flow from 2024 to TTM, showcasing better cash management.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
23.04B	22.49B	22.10B	20.42B	20.61B	17.46B
	Gross Profit
6.36B	5.98B	6.38B	5.46B	5.98B	5.11B
	EBIT
2.90B	2.65B	2.30B	2.41B	2.65B	2.10B
	EBITDA
4.00B	4.09B	2.99B	2.90B	2.91B	2.41B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
5.75B	5.60B	1.35B	3.53B	1.66B	1.98B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.70B	3.97B	10.02B	3.52B	2.99B	3.12B
	Total Assets
36.45B	37.40B	32.82B	26.09B	26.17B	25.09B
	Total Debt
11.62B	12.71B	14.68B	9.37B	10.22B	11.03B
	Net Debt
9.92B	8.74B	4.67B	5.85B	7.24B	7.92B
	Total Liabilities
22.25B	23.01B	23.82B	18.01B	19.08B	18.52B
	Stockholders Equity
13.86B	14.08B	8.68B	7.76B	6.77B	6.25B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
528.00M	44.00M	2.14B	1.39B	1.89B	1.38B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.01B	563.00M	2.61B	1.74B	2.24B	1.69B
	Investing Cash Flow
9.03B	-2.02B	-660.00M	1.75B	-692.00M	1.11B
	Financing Cash Flow
-9.76B	-4.64B	4.61B	-2.93B	-1.56B	-681.00M

Carrier Global Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 70.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.71, above the 50-day MA of 65.72, and above the 200-day MA of 70.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CARR.

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSL	81 Outperform	$16.73B	10.57	33.11%	1.00%	-0.14%	135.52%
TT	76 Outperform	$94.40B	35.22	38.45%	0.82%	11.43%	28.49%
JCI	74 Outperform	$64.48B	26.13	14.92%	1.51%	-8.39%	51.56%
LII	74 Outperform	$20.13B	25.28	131.48%	0.81%	7.78%	30.10%
CARR	71 Outperform	$60.85B	16.29	25.69%	1.12%	0.14%	202.13%
AAON	71 Outperform	$8.06B	52.06	19.85%	0.34%	8.24%	-11.66%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.39B	11.81	5.20%	249.39%	3.96%	-12.36%

Carrier Global Corporate Events

Carrier Global Announces Segment Restructuring and Growth

On May 1, 2025, Carrier Global announced a restructuring of its reportable segments to better align with its business management and performance assessment, introducing four new segments focused on climate solutions across different regions and transportation. The company also reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with a notable increase in adjusted earnings per share and operating margins despite a slight decline in net sales. This restructuring and financial performance position Carrier for accelerated growth, supported by increased orders and backlogs, and an updated full-year guidance.

Carrier Global Announces Resignation of Key Executive

On April 16, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation announced the resignation of Kyle Crockett, Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer, effective around May 2, 2025. Patrick Goris, the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will serve as interim Controller starting May 2, 2025, while the company searches for a permanent replacement.

Carrier Global Holds Annual Meeting, Elects Directors

Carrier Global held its Annual Meeting on April 9, 2025, where a quorum of 788,861,687 shares was present. During the meeting, directors were elected, executive compensation was approved, an amendment to the Long-Term Incentive Plan was passed, and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. However, a proposal for a lobbying transparency report was not approved.