Carrier Global (CARR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $52.26B
• Dividend Yield: 1.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 128.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.25
• Revenue Growth: 8.62%
• EPS Growth: 163.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 4.18
• Shares Outstanding: 863,987,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,590,165
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,097,381
• PEG Ratio: 0.79
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $74.30
• Price Target Upside: 22.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

Carrier Global shows a positive trajectory in financial performance with strong revenue growth and improved margins, but faces challenges in cash flow and operational volatility. Technical indicators suggest weak momentum, and a high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. Despite positive earnings guidance, potential risks in the HVAC market and external headwinds could impact future performance.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Carrier Global Corp. posted a Q4 EPS of 54 cents, surpassing consensus estimates and internal expectations.

Market Demand

Residential demand is a little better than expected, with management anticipating residential revenue to grow at a high-single digit pace for the full year.

Portfolio and Growth Strategy

Upcoming investor day is likely to highlight accelerated growth opportunities with C-HVAC, data centers, services and controls.

Negative Factors

European Market Challenges

Viessmann expectations were reduced again as that business has struggled to find footing on lower European heat pump uptake.

Market Performance

Weakness in some end markets, such as light commercial and North America truck & trailer, influences the maintenance of a neutral rating.

Profitability

Both segments missed on top line and margins, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability.

Carrier Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrier Global Corporation is a leading global provider of innovative heating, ventilating, air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, and fire and security solutions. With a rich history of pioneering technology, Carrier is committed to creating comfortable and sustainable environments through its wide range of products and services. The company serves a diverse clientele, including residential, commercial, and industrial customers across multiple sectors, ensuring efficiency and safety in various building systems.

How the Company Makes Money

Carrier Global makes money primarily through the sale of HVAC, refrigeration, and fire and security products and services. Its revenue streams are diversified across three main segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment generates revenue from the sale of residential and commercial heating and cooling systems. The Refrigeration segment earns through the provision of transport and commercial refrigeration solutions. The Fire & Security segment contributes to revenues through the sale of fire detection, suppression, and security products. Additionally, Carrier Global benefits from aftermarket services, including maintenance and repair offerings, which further bolster its revenue. Strategic partnerships and global distribution networks also play a critical role in reaching a broad customer base and enhancing revenue generation.

Carrier Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carrier Global's financials show strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with a notable increase in net profit margin. Balance sheet improvements are evident with reduced leverage and higher equity. However, declines in operating and free cash flow suggest challenges in cash generation, which need attention.

Income Statement

Carrier Global has shown consistent revenue growth, increasing from $17.46 billion in 2020 to $22.49 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin has been stable, though slightly declining from 29.3% in 2023 to 26.6% in 2024. The net profit margin increased significantly from 6.1% in 2023 to 14.8% in 2024, indicating improved profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown some fluctuations, which suggests potential volatility in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Carrier Global's balance sheet shows an improvement in stockholders' equity, rising from $8.68 billion in 2023 to $14.40 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 1.69 in 2023 to 0.80 in 2024, reflecting reduced leverage. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable, indicating a balanced asset financing structure. Despite these improvements, high total liabilities may pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

The company's operating cash flow decreased from $2.61 billion in 2023 to $1.57 billion in 2024, indicating potential challenges in cash generation from operations. Free cash flow also declined from $2.14 billion in 2023 to $1.05 billion in 2024, suggesting reduced capacity for discretionary spending. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, reflecting reduced cash conversion efficiency despite higher net income.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
22.49B	22.10B	20.42B	20.61B	17.46B
	Gross Profit
5.98B	6.38B	5.46B	5.98B	5.11B
	EBIT
2.65B	2.30B	2.41B	2.65B	2.10B
	EBITDA
4.09B	2.99B	2.90B	2.91B	2.41B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
3.34B	1.35B	3.53B	1.66B	1.98B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.97B	10.02B	3.52B	2.99B	3.12B
	Total Assets
37.40B	32.82B	26.09B	26.17B	25.09B
	Total Debt
11.46B	14.68B	9.37B	10.22B	11.03B
	Net Debt
7.49B	4.67B	5.85B	7.24B	7.92B
	Total Liabilities
23.01B	23.82B	18.01B	19.08B	18.52B
	Stockholders Equity
14.39B	8.68B	7.76B	6.77B	6.25B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.05B	2.14B	1.39B	1.89B	1.38B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.57B	2.61B	1.74B	2.24B	1.69B
	Investing Cash Flow
-11.03B	-660.00M	1.75B	-692.00M	1.11B
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.64B	4.61B	-2.93B	-1.56B	-681.00M

Carrier Global Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 60.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CARR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 60.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.80, below the 50-day MA of 63.46, and below the 200-day MA of 69.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CARR.

Carrier Global Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSL	79 Outperform	$16.31B	10.30	33.11%	1.03%	-0.14%	135.52%
JCI	74 Outperform	$53.54B	30.97	9.80%	1.82%	-4.53%	-14.72%
TT	69 Neutral	$78.41B	31.25	35.88%	0.99%	12.22%	28.13%
LII	69 Neutral	$18.85B	23.67	131.48%	0.86%	7.78%	30.10%
AAON	68 Neutral	$7.22B	44.05	21.61%	0.48%	2.75%	-5.43%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$4.29B	11.36	5.34%	214.53%	4.14%	-9.10%
CARR	63 Neutral	$52.26B	128.87	27.44%	1.31%	8.62%	163.53%

Carrier Global Corporate Events

Carrier Global Announces Resignation of Key Executive

On April 16, 2025, Carrier Global Corporation announced the resignation of Kyle Crockett, Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer, effective around May 2, 2025. Patrick Goris, the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will serve as interim Controller starting May 2, 2025, while the company searches for a permanent replacement.

Spark’s Take on CARR Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CARR is a Outperform.

Carrier Global’s overall score reflects its strong financial growth and strategic improvements, offset by technical weaknesses and cash flow challenges. The company’s successful portfolio transformation and positive corporate events support future growth, though concerns over cash generation and market conditions remain significant.

To see Spark’s full report on CARR stock, click here.

Carrier Global Holds Annual Meeting, Elects Directors

Carrier Global held its Annual Meeting on April 9, 2025, where a quorum of 788,861,687 shares was present. During the meeting, directors were elected, executive compensation was approved, an amendment to the Long-Term Incentive Plan was passed, and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. However, a proposal for a lobbying transparency report was not approved.

Spark’s Take on CARR Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CARR is a Outperform.

Carrier Global’s overall score reflects its strong financial growth and strategic improvements, offset by technical weaknesses and cash flow challenges. The company’s successful portfolio transformation and positive corporate events support future growth, though concerns over cash generation and market conditions remain significant.

To see Spark’s full report on CARR stock, click here.