Q4 and Full-Year Cash Generation & Capital Returns
Q4 reported sales of $4.8B, adjusted operating profit of $455M and adjusted EPS of $0.34. Q4 free cash flow ~ $900M and full-year free cash flow ~ $2.1B. Distributed $3.7B to shareholders in 2025 via buybacks and dividends.
Robust Orders and Commercial Momentum
Total company orders up ~15–16% in Q4 with commercial HVAC orders up >45% globally. CSA commercial orders rose ~80% in Q4 and applied orders within CSA commercial more than tripled year-over-year; light commercial orders up ~70%.
Data Center Business Rapid Expansion
Data center business grown to around $1B in revenue; CSA data center orders up more than 5x in Q4. Management expects data center revenue to grow ~50% in 2026 and sees meaningful share gains (water-cooled chiller share ~4x since spin) with new CDUs and Maglev air-cooled chillers in the portfolio.
Commercial HVAC and Aftermarket Strength
Fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth in commercial HVAC; global commercial HVAC up ~14% for the year. Aftermarket up double-digits for the fifth consecutive year; chillers connected rose from ~17,000 to >70,000, CSA attachment rate near 60%, and global service-covered chillers ~110,000. Modifications/upgrades sales up ~20%.
Strong Transportation & CST Performance
Transportation segment organic sales +10% in Q4 with segment margins expanding ~30 bps. Container/CST businesses show scale with >220,000 paid link subscriptions (110,000 on containers) and commercial partnerships with six of the world’s top 10 shipping lines, supporting recurring revenue opportunities.
Productivity and Cost Actions
Aggressive cost, pricing and productivity actions offset tariffs and drove strong material productivity. Management expects cost actions executed into 2025 to deliver >$100M savings in 2026 and cited productivity including cost actions of roughly $400M as a benefit in the 2026 profit bridge.
2026 Financial Framework and Capital Plan
2026 guidance: flat to low mid-single digit organic growth, reported sales ~ $22B, adjusted operating profit ~ $3.4B, adjusted EPS ~ $2.80 (up high single digits), free cash flow ~ $2B (H2 weighted) and planned share repurchases of ~ $1.5B.
Strategic Product & Go-to-Market Progress
Expanded portfolio and capability investments (chiller manufacturing, technicians, HEMS/Carrier Energy trials, SystemsProphy installer expansion) with planned market launch for integrated heat pump+battery HEMS and a plan to double qualified Prophy installers in 2026.